Beef, Pork Exports Set New Records in 2012
13 February 2013
 

US - US beef and pork exports set new value records in 2012, topping highs set in 2011, according to end-of-year statistics released by USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF).
 
The achievement was more significant in light of challenging export conditions that included non-science-based trade barriers in several key markets and an anemic economy in certain regions.
 
"The export markets are a critical profit center for the industry at a time when the industry is challenged by high input costs and, on the beef side, a historically low herd size," said Philip Seng, USMEF president and CEO. "2012 saw record highs for per-head export values for both pork and beef at a time when those returns were sorely needed by producers."
 
Pork exports set both volume and value records last year, reaching 2.26 million mt – up a fraction from the record set in 2011 – valued at $6.3 billion, a 3.5 per cent increase over the prior year’s record.
 
The per-head export value of US pork exports set another record in 2012, reaching $55.87, up 1 per cent from 2011. For the year, exports accounted for 27 per cent of total pork production and 23.4 per cent of pork muscle cut production versus 27.5 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively, in 2011.
 
The value of beef exports for the year rose 2 per cent to a record-high $5.51 billion on 12 per cent lower volumes (1.13 million mt).
 
The per-head export value for beef hit $216.73, a $10.36 increase over 2011. Contributing to that was a new monthly record value of $242.65 set in December.
 
For the year, US beef exports accounted for 12.7 per cent of total beef production and 9.8 per cent of muscle cut production. This compares to 14.2 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively, in 2011.
 
Records Set in 2012

In addition to the new standards noted above, one-year export records were set in several key export markets:

Pork
 •Mexico: 600,949 mt (12 per cent increase) valued at $1.126 billion (8 per cent increase)
 •Canada: 235,604 mt (14 per cent increase) valued at $855.7 million (16 per cent increase)
 •Central/South America: 90,897 mt (26 per cent increase) valued at $227.9 million (22 per cent increase)
 •Australia/New Zealand: 76,801 mt (9 per cent increase) valued at $236.1 million (5 per cent increase)
 
Beef
 •Russia: 80,408 mt (10 per cent increase) valued at $307.5 million (20 per cent increase)
•Hong Kong: 65,033 mt (28 per cent increase) valued at $339.5 million (43 per cent increase)
•Central/South America: 33,891 mt (31 per cent increase) valued at $134.1 million (57 per cent increase)
•Canada: $1.177 billion (14 value increase even though volume dipped 6 per cent to 180,015 mt)

Top 5 Value Export Markets for 2012

Pork
 •Japan – $1.986 billion
 •Mexico – $1.126 billion
 •China/Hong Kong – $886.2 million
 •Canada – $855.7 million
 •South Korea – $421.1 million
 
Beef
 •Canada – $1.177 billion
 •Japan – $1.03 billion (surpassing the $1 billion mark for the first time since 2003)
 •Mexico – $822.4 million
 •South Korea – $582 million
 •Hong Kong – $339.5 million
 
2013 Outlook

Looking ahead, the outlook for 2013 appears positive for both the US beef and pork industries, according to Mr Seng.
 
"There are many factors that go into projecting 12 months into the future, but as we continue to focus our efforts on markets that offer the greatest potential for growth, we are optimistic that 2013 will give us the opportunity to maintain the momentum we have seen in pork exports while rebounding in beef," he said. The recent opening of Japan to US beef under 30 months of age contributes to a projected growth in beef exports of 4 per cent in volume (to 1.17 million mt) valued at more than $6 billion. That total may be tempered if issues with exports to Russia are not resolved.
 
The projection for pork calls for steady to slight growth, with exports likely to still exceed 2.2 million mt valued at more than $6 billion with key risk factors including Russia and domestic production in China. On the bullish side, US pork is an extremely versatile, high quality protein at a great value that will gain market share in key export markets. Continued growth to top volume market Mexico is also expected to boost the bottom line.
 
Other Facts of Note

December pork exports were 186,135 mt, down 14 per cent in volume and 11 per cent in value at $515.9 million versus the high year-ago levels. December export volume was still larger year-over-year to Canada, Central/South America and Australia.
 
December beef exports were down 16 per cent versus the prior year at 90,789 mt while value was down just 3 per cent at $461.2 million. Export gains were seen for the month in Canada, South Korea, Hong Kong, Philippines and Central/South America.
 
2012 Lamb Exports

2012 was a challenging year for the global lamb industry, including leaders New Zealand and Australia, and it was no different in the United States. For the year, US lamb exports dipped 29 per cent in volume and 13 per cent in value versus 2011’s record high. However, exports to the top two markets, Mexico and Canada, both registered increases in value, offering promise for the year ahead.
 
Another key factor in reversing the recent decline in lamb exports will be gaining access to markets such as Japan, Russia, Taiwan, Korea and the European Union. These are critical destinations in which a resumption of trade could present promising opportunities for US lamb, especially in the foodservice sector. USMEF is working with trade officials to facilitate that.
 

CME: Meat Inspection Furloughs Averted
22 March 2013
 

US - It appears the meat inspection furloughs that have been threatened/promised by Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack may have been averted, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner

The U.S. Senate passed on a voice vote yesterday a measure to shift $55 million in funds within the Department of Agriculture’s budget to keep from idling inspectors and packing/ processing plants between now and the end of the federal government’s fiscal year on September 30. The spending bill itself was approved 73- 26 by the Senate and will now go to the House. It is not a done deal yet but most observers expect the House to pass the spending measure quickly.
 
It has been a heated but sad race this spring between cattle and hog markets to see which one could be more disappointing. Cattle and beef cutout values have shown some signs of life the past three weeks. We addressed the cutout value situation in Tuesday’s edition. 5-market average fed cattle have jumped into the high $120s the past three weeks as well. That is $4-$6 lower than we had originally expected but the past two weeks’ average prices being above year-ago levels is somewhat encouraging — especially with the normal seasonal peak in cattle prices still ahead of us in April.
 
Pork and hogs, though, have been a pretty bitter pill to swallow, especially for hog producers who are coming off some near-record losses on hogs sold last fall. But is this a case of unrealistic expectations as well? We don’t think so, primarily because we expected stronger beef prices to lead pork upward. Daily Livestock Report readers have read about all of the other factors that have hurt demand — as well as the surprising staying power of total protein supplies this spring.
 
The top chart at right shows weekly data for USDA estimated pork cutout value since 2008 as well as the average for 2008 through 2012. It is obvious that pork cutout values have been softer than normal so far in 2013. But the interesting feature of the chart is that pork cutout values are NEVER ROBUST during this time of year. Only 2011 saw cutout values rise significantly during the first quarter and the 5- years average increases by only about $4/cwt from January through March. It is clear that, historically, April has been the time of value gains for pork product and that conclusion would be even more solid if the 2009 pork market had not encountered H1N1 influenza (or “swine flu”) in April — an unfortunate occurrence that completely negated that year’s seasonal strength. The normal April-May increase is about $8/ cwt. Adding that this year will only put the market back in the upper $80s. That level would still far short of costs in the upper $90s but producers will take any improvement they can get at this point.
 
Pinpointing a culprit in the soft cutout value situation is not easy. Hams have been very disappointing since February 1 with the primal composite value falling by $12/cwt. But they are not alone. The composite primal value (a value for the cut basically in the form that it first comes off the carcass) for butts has fallen by $9, picnics have dropped about $10 and bellies have fallen by $17. In addition, 72% lean pork trimmings and boneless picnic meat prices have lost $13-$14/ cwt over that time period. Only loins have held their value relative to the beginning of the year and most would argue that their price was awful to start with. The loin primal last week was down $12 from one year ago. None of this paints a pretty picture.
 

USDA Estimated Pork Cutout Value, Weekly
 


 
 

Pork Packers' EST'D Gross Margin
 


Which brings us to pork packer margins. As can be seen above, our estimate of gross pork packer margins has improved sharply the past three weeks. But these gains are not like the gains in beef packer margins we addressed earlier this week. Those were driven by improvements in cutout value which means there is “space” for higher cattle prices. The improvements in pork packer margins have been accomplished by pushing down hog prices. Producers may not like that but it is a necessary step to get out of this funk. There must be margin at the packer level to keep hogs moving at the proper rate. The challenge now is to get cutout values higher — creating that same space to accommodate higher hog values. It’s a good thing spring is here!

Meat Industry Demands End to Ritual Slaughter Ban
28 March 2013

 


POLAND - Almost 2,000 representatives of the Polish meat industry protested in front of the Polish Parliament last week demanding legalisation to cover ritual slaughter of animals without stunning.

Since 1 January the slaughter of animals without stunning has been banned in Poland as a result of a court decision following a legal challenge to the standing Polish regulation, according to a report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service..

The Polish Meat Association and the National Committee of Manifestation organised the protest in effort to bring to the public’s attention the larger economic cost to society including teh loss of several thousand jobs because of what the associationsaw as the country’s indifference towards personal religious rights.

Protesters said the economic damage and possible collapse of many businesses related to meat processing and meat exports could result from the legislation prohibiting slaughter of animals without stunning.

The organisers of the protest presented petitions directed to Ewa Kopacz, the Speaker of the Lower Parliament (Sejm), and to Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister, that demands modification to existing national legislation.
 
According to industry calculations, in 2012 animals slaughtered in accordance to ritual Islamic and Judean principles produced product amounting to 10 per cent of poultry and over 30 per cent of beef exported.

In 2012, total Polish exports of poultry meat reached €1.2 billion, and beef – €1.35 billion.
 
The Government of Poland released an announcement that because the Minister of Agriculture was in Brussels attending the EU Council of Ministers meeting, further government discussion on the proposal to amend the Law on Protection of Animals would be delayed.
 
This law provides the basis by which animal rights activists challenged religious based ritual slaughter practices.
 
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) had sought to amend the segment of the Polish Law on Protection of Animals that the courts had ruled prohibited the slaughter of animals without prior stunning by inserting reference to EU Regulation 1099/2009, which defines the legally acceptable treatment of animals during slaughter, according to teh USDA FAS analysts.
 
It is reported that the proposal submitted to the Council of Ministers (Poland’s Cabinet) for consideration included the opinion of the European Food Safety Agency (EFSA), which notes that even with prior stunning an animal suffered at slaughter and that certain Islamic sects (not all) allowed for stunning of animals prior to ritual slaughter.
 
The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) backed the position of the MARD with its legal opinion that the (MARD) proposal was in line with the EU law.

The MFA added that in Austria, France and Germany ritual slaughter was allowed through special permits issued to religious communities, while in Spain and Italy slaughter plants only were required to notify authorities that they conduct ritual slaughter on premise.
 
The animal welfare organisation, Foundation Ius Animalia, has accused the MARD of incorrect interpretation of EU law.

In its opinion slaughter with stunning is a rule in the EU while ritual slaughter is an exception that requires the introduction of detailed national regulations.

It also refers to the European Tribunal of Human Rights, which in 2000 stated that if ritual slaughter is carried out, it must be regulated by the national public authority.
 
Last week’s demonstration served to further broaden the political stakes challenging the current Polish government as it moved the public discussion beyond the religious versus animal rights debate to bring in commercial and employment issues in a country sliding into economic contraction and rising unemployment.

Qantas Airline Stops Serving Pork
05 April 2013

AUSTRALIA - Qantas has removed pork from its in-flight menu on flights to and from Europe as a result of its partnership with Emirates.

Bernama.com reports that no food containing pork or pork products will be served on those flights which now has a stopover in Dubai.
 
All meals offered on the route in first, business and economy classes will also be prepared without alcohol in keeping with the Islamic religion.
 
A Qantas spokesman told the Sydney Telegraph the decision to remove pork, ham and other related food items had had minimal impact on its menu and it was still offering the same meal choices.
 
"Qantas in-flight catering often reflects the cultural and regional influences of the international destinations we fly to," he said.
 
"On flights to and from Hong Kong and China, our menus include regionally inspired dishes such as stir fries and to Singapore we have noodle options."
 
Qantas also offers meals without pork and alcohol on flights to Jakarta.
 
Several other airlines which fly from Australia to the United Arab Emirates and Malaysia do not serve pork either.
 
Virgin Australia does not serve pork on flights to and from Abu Dhabi and all meals that are prepared are halal accredited, with meat prepared in a way prescribed by Islamic law.
 
Qantas passengers heading to any European city now fly via Dubai instead of Singapore, as they did under the airline's previous longstanding partnership with British Airways.

CME: Commercial Beef Production Revised Downward; Pork Production Revision Raised
12 April 2013
 

US - On 10 April, USDA issued its latest forecasts for beef, pork and poultry production for the remainder of the year, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.

The first forecasts for 2014 will be issued next month. The charts below show how the production estimates for the three main species have evolved in the last 12 months and put the current changes in some perspective.
 






The biggest revision in the latest report was with regard to beef production. Total commercial production is estimated to be 24.976 billion pounds, 230 million pounds or 0.9 per cent less than the forecast presented in the March report. The decline likely reflects expectations for a notable reduction in cattle slaughter, especially in the second half of the year and a slowdown in cattle carcass weight gains.
 
Smaller feedlot placements will continue to limit the number of cattle coming to market in the next few months. The slowdown in weight gains is also significant as last year the surge in cattle weights managed to offset a good portion of the decline in the number of cattle coming to market.
 
The changes to imports and exports were relatively small, with import volume increased by 10 million pounds or 0.4 per cent and export volume reduced by 15 million pounds or 0.6 per cent. The adjustments largely reflect trade flows based on the February data and to a lesser extent the pace of weekly export shipments todate. In all, the latest WASDE report reduced the per-capita consumption figure by 0.7 per cent compared to it latest forecast and per capita consumption for 2013 is now pegged at 55.7 pounds, down 2.9 per cent compared to a year ago.
 
Despite the reduction in meat availability, the price response at both retail and foodservice counter has been underwhelming. Live cattle futures dropped to contract lows in Wednesday's trading. Canada also announced that it would impose about $1 billion in tariffs in US goods to compensate for the impact of Mandatory Country of Origin Labelling (MCOOL) on Canadian beef and pork coming into the US. Canada is one of the largest buyers of US beef and the tariffs will likely impact US beef shipments to the Canadian market. Please note that yesterday (11 April) was the last day for comments regarding MCOOL.
 
USDA raised its guidance on pork production for 2013. Total commercial pork output was estimated at 23.522 billion pounds, 130 million pounds or 0.6 per cent larger than the forecast presented in March and 1.1 per cent higher than 2012 production. The adjustment reflects the upward revision in pig crop numbers presented in the latest Hogs and Pigs report.
 
Lower feed costs in the second half are seen improving hog producer profitability and support a modest increase in year over year production. USDA also lowered its estimates of US pork production, reducing expected 2013 pork exports by 160 million pounds or 3 per cent compared to the forecast given in March. As a result, pork exports in 2013 are now expected to be 3.3 per cent smaller than they were a year ago.
 
The combination of more pork coming to market and less going to export is expected to bolster pork availability in the domestic market, helping keep pork prices in check. Pork per capita consumption is now expected to be 46.8 pounds per person (retail wt), 2 per cent higher than a year ago.

CME: Why Was Pork Production at Record High in Q4 2012?
19 April 2013
 

US - We were recently challenged after a presentation by an attendee who said “If high feed prices are so bad, why was pork production record high in the fourth quarter of 2012?” That is a legitimate question since a) it is based on fact and b) it correctly points out that warnings of dire reductions in meat protein supplies — including ours! — have not proven accurate, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.

But the question begs for context. What is the proper yard-stick to measure the impact feed costs increases have had on meat and poultry production? We think the answer lies in comparing trends, not comparing snapshot production levels such as quarterly pork output.
 
Consider the chart of quarterly meat and poultry output by species below. We have made it larger than our normal page one charts so readers can see details. The black arrows have been inserted to denote the trends that were in place as of Q4-2007 for each species’ quarterly production. All were growing with broiler and beef output in- creasing by about the same amount per year and pork and turkey out- put growing slower but clearly increasing.
 


We believe it is no coincidence that all of the trends shifted abruptly at about the beginning of 2008 when corn prices broke through $4.00 per bushel on their way to $7.00-plus that summer. The weekly corn price had eclipsed $4.00 of a few occasions in 2007 but early 2008 marked the first clear surge for prices to levels that have, since 2010, become commonplace.
 
By the end of 2008, the rate of growth of output for all four major animal protein species has changed dramatically. Chicken output fell sharply in 2008, driven largely by production cutbacks at Pilgrim’s Pride and the company’s eventual bankruptcy. Some have offered that bankruptcy as the reason for the trend change. But we need to remember that financial failure is the mechanism that commodity markets use to force reductions in output. Some firms may reduce output without going bankrupt but it is usually exits — in this case by a major player — that cause the most significant supply reductions.
 
The observant reader would say “Yes, but pork has recovered to it’s pre-2008 trend line,” and, on its face, that observation is true. But here again, one must consider context. In 2007, the pork industry was the beneficiary of a major technological development in the form of vac- cines to control circorvirus, a pathogen that had been found to be sort of a gateway for many other swine health problems. The products had a major impact on the number of pigs that made it all the way to market, positively impacting production economics and animal welfare (sort of interesting how those go hand in hand in most cases, is it not?). The result was a surge in pork output in Q4-2007 — a surge that, we think, would have continued had it not been for high feed costs. Therefore, we think the relevant trend for pork production given the continued use of circorvirus vaccines would have been the red trend line, not the black trend line that dates back to the mid-1990s.
 
Based on these cursory analyses, it appears to us that outputs of all the major species would have been significantly higher now had grain costs not been pushed up so abruptly. It wasn’t the $4.0-0 corn that cause the changes. It was the $6.00 and $7.00 corn that forced a slowdown that has, relative to what the previous trends would have provided, reduced broiler and beef output by roughly 1 billion pounds per quarter and pork and turkey output by roughly 500 million pounds per quarter. Don’t you think consumers would have been a bit better off had they been afforded the opportunity to buy about 8 billion pounds more animal proteins this year?

Market Sales of Cattle, Hogs Up in 2012
26 April 2013
 

US - In 2012, the total cash receipts from marketings of meat animals increased six per cent to $90.1 billion. Cattle and calves accounted for over 75 per cent of this total and hogs and pigs accounted for nearly 25 per cent.

In 2012, total production of cattle and calves and hogs and pigs for the United States totaled 73.5 billion pounds, up one per cent from 2011.
 
Production increased four per cent for hogs and pigs but decreased one per cent for cattle and calves.
 
The 2012 gross income from cattle and calves and hogs and pigs for the United States totaled $90.7 billion, up six per cent from 2011.
 
Gross income for cattle and calves increased eight per cent and hogs and pigs increased two per cent over previous year’s gross income.
 
Cattle and Calves: Cash receipts from marketings of cattle and calves increased eight per cent from $63.0 billion in 2011 to $67.9 billion in 2012. All cattle and calf marketings totaled 55.4 billion pounds in 2012, down one per cent from 2011.
 
Hogs and Pigs: Cash receipts from hogs and pigs totaled $22.2 billion during 2012, up two per cent from 2011. Marketings totaled 33.3 billion pounds in 2012, up four per cent from 2011.

Italian Pig Meat Exports to the US to Resume
02 May 2013









 

ITALY & US - APHIS has declared six areas of Italy to be free of swine vesicular disease, opening the way for exports of Italian pig meat products to the US again.

Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has determined that the Italian Regions of Lombardia, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto and Piemonte and the autonomous provinces of Trento and Bolzano are free of swine vesicular disease.
 
Based on an assessment of the animal health status of these areas, which the Service made available to the public for review and comment through a previous notice of availability, the Administrator has determined that the importation of pork or pork products from these areas presents a low risk of introducing swine vesicular disease into the United States.
 
This determination is based on its review of the documentation submitted by the Government of Italy in support of its request and the findings of our its animal health risk evaluation.

Association Says DA's New Meat Imports Rules Will Not Affect Prices
06 May 2013

PHILIPPINES - The Department of Agriculture's new accreditation requirements for meat importers will not affect the supply or the prices of meat in the domestic market, the Pork Producers Federation of the Philippines (Propork) said Sunday (5 May).

In a statement, the association said that the department's new regulations will raise local prices.
 
According to GMA News, industry leaders also countered the doubts of some of their colleagues, saying that Administrative Order No. 9 will not discourage importers but instead protect the local industry from fly-by-night operators.
 
"The volume of imported meat in cold storages, based on NMIS [National Meat Inspection Service] data, is at 8.8 million kilos. Add that with local meat production and that gives you 10 million kilos. So how can they claim that AO No. 9 is restrictive when our cold storages are in full capacity?" said Propork president Edwin Chen.
 
The order's minimum capital requirement of P5 million for meat importers also “aims to legitimize the system because there were undercapitalized fly-by-night meat importers in the past who were allowed to operate prior to this new order," said Daniel Javellana, chairman of the National Federation of Hog Farmers Inc. (NFHFI).
 
"This new order actually aims to end the loopholes in the process that allows smuggling," he also said.
 
Chen said the DA consulted the industry for the new capitalization requirement, because many meat importers were undercapitalized.
 
"P5 million is equivalent to the amount of one 40-footer container van. If you do not have the capital to import at least one container van, then you have no basis to be in this business," he said.

Tainted Meat Scandal Suggests Flaws in Food Safety System
10 May 2013

CHINA - A recent high-profile food safety case related to meat products in Nanjing county, Zhangzhou, Fujian province has suggested the existence of loopholes in the rural area's food safety supervision, local officials said.

Three suspects have been arrested for allegedly selling about 40 metric tons of meat from sick or dead pigs for human consumption.

Two of the suspects, Lin Yuhong and Wu Jinrong, both of whom are farmers in Nanjing county, were hired by a local township government to collect sick and dead pigs and dispose of them in an environmentally friendly manner.

According to the Zhangzhou public security bureau's branch office in the Taiwanese Investment Zone, which is in charge of the case, the pair had sold meat from the sick and dead pigs since 2003.

The duo collected diseased or dead pigs that local residents discarded and bought them from local farmers. They also built a freezer that could store up to 6 tons of pork and hired three butchers and sold the meat in standard 20-kg packages.

Xiao Zhiwei deputy head of Jingcheng town of Nanjing county, a major pig breeding and farming area of Fujian province, said the town features household pig farming that sees the birth of 200,000 pigs annually.

Every village in the town has set up a specific pool to dispose of dead pigs using bio-safety techniques, but most pools are in remote areas and usually there isn't anyone taking care of them, Xiao said.

"So it is still common that people just discard the dead and sick pigs randomly," Xiao said.

The data from the Nanjing agriculture bureau showed the number of sick and dead pigs annually is up to 19,000. Spring and autumn are the two high seasons when hogs are diseased and die.

Yang Zhizhong, head of the Nanjing agriculture bureau said the bureau had no clue of the manufacturing and selling of tainted meat products until the case surfaced recently.

Currently, the two veterinarians in the town's veterinary medical center are responsible for the registration of the dead and sick pigs, but it's impossible for them to follow every incident, Yang said.

The website xinhuanet.com reported that after the case was exposed, Zhangzhou city government launched a campaign to check and update the figure of sick and dead pigs in every county.

As of 2 May, Nanjing county had dispatched 787 people, checking 18 freezers and disposing of 2,900 sick and dead pigs.

Government departments of agriculture, animal husbandry, quality supervision and industry and commerce administration should collaborate with each other to establish a mechanism to avoid loopholes in food safety supervision, especially in rural areas, xinhuanet.com quoted a source in Zhangzhou food safety office as saying.

The Zhangzhou case has been listed as one of the top 10 food safety cases related to meat product by the Ministry of Public Security.

Two swine diseases, which are highly contagious and fatal to the animals, were tested positive during a test conducted by the local animal disease control and prevention center.

An earlier rumor said that the pork has entered the market of Fujian's neighboring province of Jiangxi, but the Fuzhou-based newspaper the Strait News quoted a source with the Fujian provincial public security department as saying that such an allegation has no factual basis.

Some details, including the exact destinations the tainted pork has gone to and whether there is a mastermind behind the case, are still under investigation.

Australian Slaughter Lamb Market to Weaken24 July 2013 AUSTRALIA - The average financial performance of Australian slaughter lamb producing farms is expected to weaken in 2012-13 but remain above the long-term industry average. This is due to significantly lower prices received for slaughter lambs, sheep and wool despite increased turn-off as seasonal conditions become drier according to the Australian lamb: financial performance of slaughter lamb producing farms, 2010-11 to 2012-13 report produce by ABARES. The report says that there are around 18 800 Australian broadacre farms that sell more than 200 lambs for slaughter. Most of these farms are mixed enterprise, deriving a substantial proportion of their receipts from cropping, beef cattle, sheep and wool, as well as from the sale of slaughter lambs. Average farm cash income for Australian slaughter lamb producing farms is projected to decrease from an average of A$172,000 per farm in 2011-12 to A$139,000 per farm in 2012-13, still around 13 per cent above the average for the 10 years ending 2012-13 in real terms. Australian slaughter lamb producers are estimated to be in an above average financial position in 2012-13. Improved seasonal conditions in 2010-11 and 2011-12 have resulted in increased sheep and lamb numbers. High farm cash incomes in these years have resulted in record investment in land, vehicles, plant, machinery and improvements in recent years. This should provide a basis to further increase farm productivity and, together with strong farm equity, underpin farm financial performance over the medium term despite dry seasonal conditions and lower prices in 2012-13, the ABARES report says.

Tight Sheep Meat Supplies Expected into 2014
02 August 2013


EBLEX

UK - A reduced lamb kill combined with a reduction in New Zealand imports will result in relatively tight sheep meat supplies in late 2013 and into 2014, according to the latest forecast from AHDB/EBLEX.

Following the difficult conditions of the previous winter and the high culling rate recorded so far this year, the recent growth in the national flock is now expected to halt. The lamb kill has, however, been revised slightly upwards as a result of fewer ewe lambs being retained in the breeding flock, combined with the anticipation that recent good conditions will help with marketing lambs later in the year. The current projection for the 2013 lamb kill is now 12.3 million head, a rise of nearly four per cent on 2012 levels.

Adult sheep slaughterings so far in 2013 have been well ahead of the low 2012 levels, being 14 per cent (122,000 head) higher in the first six months of the year. This increase is expected to slow as the year progresses, resulting in the adult sheep kill for 2013 being 10 per cent higher year-on-year. As a result of the increase in slaughterings of both lambs and adult sheep, mutton and lamb production for the year is forecast to be up three per cent at 285,000 tonnes, following a decline of nearly five per cent year-on-year in 2012.

With production forecast to increase, there is an expectation that export volumes will also be higher on the year. While some of the more traditional markets, such as France, are expected to struggle, the strong growth in volumes to Hong Kong is likely to continue.

UK sheep meat imports in 2013 are expected to be above 2012 levels, following strong year-on-year growth in the first five months of the year. However, imports from New Zealand are expected to reduce later in the year, meaning supplies are likely to be tighter in late 2013 and early 2014. There are already some indications that New Zealand exports to the UK are starting to slow, with the volume for June only four per cent higher on the year.

Until Defra releases its June census results, there is little reason to adjust the previous forecast for the 2013 lamb crop. As such, it remains at approximately 15.8 million head, some 1.36 million (eight per cent) lower than the estimated 2012 crop. The breeding flock was marginally up in December 2012, therefore this fall is attributable to a significant reduction in the rearing rate for lambs, which is expected to have fallen by 10 percentage points from the relatively high levels of 2012.

With supply expected to be relatively tight at home and in key trading countries in the second half of 2013, robust demand should result in favourable returns. However, recent price variation indicates that there remains the potential for some volatility in the market.

Actual and forecast supplies of lamb and mutton in the UK (‘000 tonnes)

  2012 2013 2014
Production 275.6 285.0 280.7
Imports (a) 99.8 116.0 106.8
Exports (a) 98.1 99.7 98.9
Consumption 277.3 301.4 288.6

(a) Carcase weight equivalent and including processed product.

All figures subject to revision. Forecasts in bold. Totals may not sum due to rounding

German Meat Exports to Russia in Decline
09 August 2013

GERMANY - With total exports to Russia in the first five months of this year have declining sharply from 2012, German pork exports were down by more than 20 per cent over the first five months of this year.

Compared to the first five months of 2012, German beef and poultry meat exports are down by 62 and 70 per cent, respectively, reports the German meat association, VDF. Exports of chilled beef have came to a halt between March and May.

Total pork exports in 2012 were already down by 24 per cent and a further 21 per cent reduction was recorded for the period January to March 2013.

VDF says the main reason for these developments is the long-term tightening in Russian veterinary measures, which have resulted in a complete ban on fresh, chilled meat imports since February 2013 and numerous blocks on deliveries as the result of Russian ciriticism of inadequate veterinary supervision of specific Russian requirements of exporting companies.

In June, the Russian veterinary service banned a further nine meat delivery companies from exporting to Russia and as a result, further reductions in meat exports from July are anticipated.

Uruguayan Beef Shipments Up16 August 2013 URUGUAY - Uruguayan beef exports during July increased by seven per cent on the previous month, to 20,133 tonnes - but remained 14 per cent lower on the corresponding period in 2012, according to data from Meat and Livestock Australia. China remained the major destination, while chilled shipments to the EU also registered significant growth. In contrast to the higher export volumes for July, cattle slaughter decline for the third consecutive month. Shipments to China accounted for 32 per cent of total exports during July, at 6,536 tonnes, mainly frozen beef. Also assisting the growth for the month was exports to Israel, up by four per cent month-on-month, to 2,464 tonnes. Chilled beef exports to the EU during July rose by 52 per cent year-on-year, to 1,760 tonnes. Uruguayan cattle slaughter during July decreased by 19 per cent year-on-year, to 145,760 head. The short supply of cattle, combined with robust export - See more at: http://www.themeatsite.com/meatnews/22228/uruguayan-beef-shipments-up#sthash.JoIvTlLF.dpuf

Duck, Pork Found in Beijing Mutton
23 August 2013

CHINA - Two batches of fake mutton were found and banned from Beijing's markets, Beijing Times reported.

Duck and pork were found in sliced "mutton" during an inspection by the Beijing Administration for Industry and Commerce, after mutton-related scandals were reported earlier this year.

Fake mutton is hard to identify and usually used by barbecue stalls and small hotpot restaurants, the paper said.

China has long been plagued by food safety issues, and many of the recent scares have involved its meat trade.

This year, authorities seized 20,000 tons of illegal products and solved 382 cases of meat-related crime – primarily the sale of toxic, diseased and fake meat, during a three-month campaign.