Philippines Poultry News Updates:

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, December 23, 2011
Flu Scare Sparks Mass Bird Cull in Hong Kong

HONG KONG - Experts have reassured people in Hong Kong that the discovery of a chicken infected with the potentially lethal H5N1 avian flu virus in a city market on Tuesday raises no cause for alarm.



As a safety precaution, a cull of 17,000 chickens was carried out on Wednesday.

York Chow, secretary for food and health, announced the test result before midnight on Tuesday.
 
Sales of live poultry in Hong Kong markets were placed on immediate hold for 21 days.
 
Local hospitals were told to raise their flu alert to "serious" as a precautionary measure.
 
A laboratory at the University of Hong Kong is now determining whether the virus strain found in the dead bird had mutated, which would have made the virus vaccine-resistant.
 
The 17,000 live chickens at the Cheung San Wan wholesale market were exposed to lethal gas in an operation that began at about 11 am on Wednesday.
 
The remains were wrapped in black plastic bags, to be disposed of in a landfill.
 
Wholesalers will be paid HK$30 ($3.85) for each culled bird under an agreement reached in 2008.
 
Mr Chow admitted there was a chance that other sick birds at the market had already been slaughtered and sold to the public later in the day.
 
Mr Chow assured anxious consumers that there is no danger from eating an infected bird, as long as it is properly cooked.
 
Experts also said health risks are not as great as the mass cull make it appear.
 
Yuen Kwok-yung, chair of infectious diseases at the Department of Microbiology of University of Hong Kong, said the next two weeks will be critical in determining how extensively the strain had spread since an infected bird may not show symptoms for a week.
 
Retail and wholesale markets are required to clear all live poultry by the end of trading every day.
 
Lo Wing-lok, a specialist in infectious disease, said the overall risk remains low at the moment, as the infection has not turned into a massive outbreak and the prevalence of the virus in the environment is presumed to be low.
 
Chickens both from local farms and designated farms on the mainland are vaccinated and inspected before heading to the market, where carcasses are tested for viruses.
 
The discovery and containment of the flu indicated the system is working, Dr Wing-lok pointed out.
 
But the investigation into how this particular chicken slipped through the strict preventive regime has proven difficult, because individual chickens are not marked.
 
Mr Chow said it was "a good question" to ask if a leg band could be fitted to each chicken at poultry farms.
 
The New Territories Chicken Breeders Association doubted whether its members have sufficient staff to fit a band on every bird. Vice-Chairman Lee Leung-kei asked for financial support from the government if the HK$1 band becomes mandatory.
 
So far, chickens at local farms have been spared from culls, since no outbreak was visible during inspection of all but one of the 30 local poultry farms on Wednesday morning. Samples were collected for further virus tests.
 
The alarm went off earlier this month after two wild bird carcasses were found in the New Territories. Both tested positive for the H5N1 flu virus.
 

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[Mustang Sally Farm]

Low-Input Birds Meet Needs of Developing Countries

Indbro Research & Breeding Farms Pvt. Ltd has developed a low-input broiler strain which, the company says, thrives in the growing conditions in India and meets the demands of the local market.



Providing nutritious food to everybody is the priority of any government in any country. When the purchasing capacity goes up, the consumption of animal protein goes up. Eggs and chicken meat production has is the most organized sector in animal production. The price rise of poultry products is slower or stagnant, while the costs of other food items are soaring.

Research in breeding, housing systems and feed helped to improve the efficiency in poultry production. Layer birds, which gave up broodiness, lay eggs almost daily with minimum body size to maintain and convert vegetative material to egg with 100 per cent biological value. The broiler, growing faster than vegetable plant give excellent meat, which is liked by all classes of individuals without any religious bias.

Advantage in hybridization, day-old chick sexing and invention of incubator machinery has helped large scale commercial production of eggs and chicken, which are a great value for money involved in purchasing them. The poultry industry is growing fast all over the world, the growth rate ranging from three per cent to 25 per cent, depending on the current production levels in the area and the cost-effectiveness in production. Chicken trade and exports are maintaining the price levels worldwide compensating the local production.

Broilers
 
The fast growing broilers cannot tolerate extreme environment temperatures. Environment controlled houses are very costly and require constant power all 24 hours. If the climate is not controlled, the performance goes down drastically during hot weather. The fast growing broilers also require very good quality feed which also is expensive.

Live bird marketing thrives in Asia and South East Asia. The coloured birds are appreciated and they command higher prices.

Developing countries are growing birds in open-sided poultry houses, which are less expensive. These low-cost poultry houses are treated as alternative agricultural systems where water resources are scarce. Educated unemployed youth are taking up poultry rearing as a subsidiary occupation besides agriculture. Farmers with small land holdings and senior citizens can involve themselves in poultry rearing, which is a lighter physical work compared to agriculture under hot sun. Many of these small farmers have reared commercial broilers. They find it risky in summer months. Fluctuating broiler markets have resulted in loss of working capital. These farmers are looking for alternative poultry systems to utilise their facilities.

 
Native Chicken
 
Native poultry continues to exist in the rural areas all over the world. The efficiency of native poultry is very poor. The native poultry is still broody and lays not more than 15 eggs in a cycle and 60 eggs in one year. The growth rate of the birds is very slow. The bird achieves a weight of 1.0kg in four months and there is hardly any meat on the carcass. The meat is tough and needs hard cooking.

Low-Input Birds
 
Indian Council of Agriculture Research and Government of India have been working on birds which look like native chickens and suit the rural production systems. The birds are multi-coloured and are camouflaged from predators. The female parent is not broody and lays good number of eggs. The cost of the chick is low. They grow faster than the native chicken and attain 1kg weight in 40 to 45 days, depending on the feed given. If given good feed, they can grow faster. They also sustain low-quality feed and can survive under scavenging also. They can be reared under intensive poultry rearing system for four weeks until all vaccines are given. They can be shifted to semi-intensive or scavenging system later.

If reared under intensive system, they are cost-effective because the cost of the feed can be low and command better sale price. They can be reared with out chemical or antibiotic feed supplements and help in production of healthy organic chicken. The nutrient levels can be low. The meat consistency can be adjusted. These birds fetch better price in the live bird markets.

Indbro Research & Breeding Farms Pvt. Ltd, encouraged by the Ministry of Agriculture and the Technology Development Board, has bred the Rainbow Rooster in the private sector.

The comparision of low-input birds with native chicken and broiler chicken can be summarised as follows:




Comparison

Native chicken

Low input birds

Broilers



Availability

Poor

Good

Good



Genetic status

Variable

Standard

Standard



Mass rearing

Not done

Possible

Only way



Organic production

Possible

Possible

Not possible



Taste

Good

Good

Average



Meat quality

Tough

Medium

Very tender



Risk of losses in production

Low

Low

High



Chick mortality

High

Low

Low



Egg laying

60

140-160

100



Initial growth

Poor

Good

V. Good



Chick cost

High

Low

High



Weight 4 weeks gms

<200 Gms

400

1000



Weight 7 weeks

550

1450

2500



Feed conversion efficiency

>3.0

2.0-2.2

1.65-1.85



No of days to get 1200 gms weight

QZ

44

32



Market price (Rs/kg)

80

75

[Mustang Sally Farm]

GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS - Record Egg Output but Growth Slows in Asia

Economic pressures on producers' margins and in some instances, disease outbreaks, have markedly cut the rate of expansion in global egg production since 2009, according to seasoned industry watcher, Terry Evans.



Between 2000 and 2008, the annual growth rate in egg output worldwide was well above two per cent but from 2008 to 2010, the rate of expansion fell to 1.5 per cent and is currently likely to be around one per cent. Nevertheless, output in 2012 could reach a record high of just under 65 million tonnes. Although this figure includes hatching eggs, these are unlikely to account for more than five per cent of the total.

Between 2000 and 2010, the rates of growth have varied between the regions, ranging from around one per cent in Europe to almost 2.6 per cent in Asia. Consequently, the latter region expanded her share of the global total from around 57 per cent to nearly 59 per cent. Africa has managed to increase its stake a little to almost four per cent. The share held by the Americas has slipped a shade to just under 20 per cent, while Oceania has just about maintained a share of some 0.4 per cent. Hardest hit region was Europe, where production, although rising from 9.5 million tonnes to an estimated 10.5 million tonnes in 2010 (table 1) lost two percentage points of market share. Here, output could currently amount to only 10.2 million tonnes, or less than 16 per cent, compared with 18.6 per cent back in 2000.



In 2010, the most recent year for which final data was available for all countries at the time of writing, there were 6,501 million layers (including breeders) worldwide, of which 4,146 million (64 per cent) were in Asia, 1,044 million (16 per cent) in the Americas, 788 million (12 per cent) were in Europe, 505 million (8 per cent) in Africa and 18 million (0.3 per cent) in Oceania.

This, the first in a series of four regional reports, examines developments in Asia.
 
Large Potential for Egg Products in Asia
 
Although there are nearly 50 countries in the region, more than 90 per cent of egg output comes from just 11 of these (see Tables 2 and 4), a situation which is unlikely to change in the near future.

Annual production of all eggs in Asia in 2010 amounted to around 42.6 million tonnes, of which some 37.5 million were hen eggs. Although the plant capacity is considerably higher, a maximum of one million tonnes of eggs (about three per cent) are processed into egg products by some 150 factories, of which 24 specialise in powdered products. The egg products industry has grown dramatically in the past 10 years with some 30 new factories being built in China, Korea and Taiwan. Developments in South-east Asia (Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Viet Nam, Thailand and Myanmar) have been slower due to relatively high egg prices and competition from imported egg products.
 


China
 
China is not only the leader in the region – accounting for some 63 per cent of total production – but is also the world's largest egg producer with the total for all poultry estimated to exceed 28.3 million tonnes in 2012, according to the China National Statistics Bureau. However, some four million tonnes of other (mainly duck) eggs are produced, which points to a 2012 forecast of some 24.3 million tonnes for hen eggs.

However, Morten Ernst (Managing Director of Sanovo International Asia-Pacific) considers that hen egg output in China in 2010 amounted to 24 million tonnes, which indicates that the Bureau's estimate for 2012 may be on the low side. However, according to the USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service, higher costs are making Chinese producers more cautious about expanding and there are also concerns over possible labour shortages. In that case, production in 2012 may fall short of 24.5 million tonnes. Since 2000, China's share of the regional total has actually declined a little.

Because output in China is so much greater than in any other country in the region, the trend in production is shown in Figure 1 rather than in Figure 2, which applies to the other leading producers in Asia. In China, most commercial egg producers are found in the top five egg producing provinces of Hebei (15.7 per cent), Shandong (14.2 per cent), Henan (13.3 per cent), Liaoning (8.1 per cent) and Jiangsu (6.6 per cent). There are about 10,000 farms with less than 2,000 layers, 100,000 with between 2,000 and 10,000 birds, some 20,000 with more than 10,000 but fewer than 100,000 birds and 2,000 with more than 100,000 hens.
 



Figure 1. Egg production in China and Asia compared to the global total (million tonnes)
 
It is estimated that some 75 per cent of China's eggs are brown-shelled and that around 90 per cent of the commercial flock is housed in cages.

The egg products industry in China comprises about 18 plants – not counting in-house processing by the food industry. About half of these 18, with a combined processing capacity of about 200,000 tonnes a year, are considered to be up to international standards. Eight produce egg powder, while those located near urban centres concentrate on fresh liquid products. The fresh liquid market is around the big city regions especially in the Shanghai and Beijing/Tianjin areas. Whole egg accounts for about 45 per cent, the remaining 55 per cent being separated yolks and whites. Four of the plants are foreign-owned and only three belong to egg producers, the remainder sourcing their egg requirements through egg traders and contract farmers.

China is not a processor of cheap egg products, prices of shell eggs having doubled since 2006, a trend that is expected to continue as feed, labour and energy costs are on the increase. So, China does not pose a threat in international markets with cheap egg products. The market for egg products is within the country and will continue to be as the urban metropolis moves in the direction of international quality food products for the growing middle class.

As a result of the internationalisation of Chinese egg products, it is increasingly important that the government establishes egg product processing guidelines that will eventually become law. Currently, each processor determines their own quality standards, though increasingly a growing number of food processors, who use egg products, are effectively becoming the regulating body for quality and traceability.
 


India
 
Second largest egg producer, India, has one of the fastest growing industries in the world, production having expanded by more than five per cent a year over the past decade with the result that by 2010, output had risen to 3.4 million tonnes, according to FAO data, while our estimate for 2012 of some 3.8 million tonnes is almost two million tonnes higher than in 2000 (Table 2). However, at least one assessment puts egg production in 2010 at 3.7 million tonnes, pointing to a more than 11 per cent increase over the estimate for 2009 of 3.3 million tonnes. All the birds in the commercial sector are kept in cages, more than 90 per cent of which are white-egg layers.

India's gross domestic product grew by 6.4 per cent a year between 2000 and 2008, making this country the second fastest growing major economy in the world after China. Its human population is forecast to overtake that of China by 2023, when it will likely exceed 1,431 million. Middle-class households are the fastest growing segment of the population, of which possibly 20 per cent are vegetarian but rising incomes and urbanisation will give a significant boost to non-vegetarian diets.

The country's egg products industry is young and concentrated in few hands, primarily because almost all egg products are exported. The first egg products company was established in the mid-1990s and four more came on stream shortly after although today, only three are still operating. They all have dryers and have a combined annual output of about 10,000 tonnes of egg powder. As all were established under the 'Export Oriented Unit' (EOU) scheme, they were designed to meet stringent international regulations.
 


Japan is the third largest egg producer in the region but although there has been some variation in production from year to year, in broad terms, the annual total has remained steady at around 2.5 million tonnes since 2000. Nearly 99 per cent of birds are kept in cages, and about two-thirds of eggs are white.

Although this country has more than 65 egg product plants, Japan is by far the largest importer of egg products in Asia, as only a couple of the plants manufacture egg powder.

During the period 2000 to 2010, the egg industry in Indonesia came close to matching India's rate of growth with an annual average of 5.7 per cent. While the period 2000 to 2007 witnessed an annual expansion of nine per cent, in the succeeding years, output contracted slightly, presumably as a result of the impact of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). However, a recent Rabobank report highlighted the point that Indonesia has emerged as one of the leading Asian countries for economic growth since the global financial crisis, and looks set to continue to do so for the next decade. Rising per-capita incomes and increasing health awareness, along with the development of modern retailing practices are considered to boost domestic demand for affordable food products for the middle- and lower-income groups from which the poultry industry, including the egg sector, will likely benefit.

Until 2010, Turkey's egg industry expanded steadily with output of around 750,000 tonnes in the middle of the last decade, rising to exceed 860,000 tonnes in 2009. However, while FAO statistics point to a cut-back in 2010 to 740,000 tonnes, another series of figures points to continued growth in that year. Nevertheless, it looks as though annual output could reach one million tonnes in the foreseeable future. Virtually all production comes from cages and it is considered that the brown to white egg ratio is 30:70. Turkey has four egg processing operations.

If the expansion that has taken place in Iran since 2006 can be maintained, annual production could soon top 750,000 tonnes year. However, one report late in 2011, said that an outbreak of avian influenza had resulted in a drastic reduction in production. Should this prove to be correct, it will take some time for Iran's industry to recover.

Iran is reported to have between six to eight processing plants, while there is just one in Pakistan.
 



Figure 2. Egg production in selected countries in Asia (million tonnes)
 
Behind the 'Top Six' egg-producing countries in Asia, there are a further five, each producing around half a million tonnes of shell eggs a year.

South Korea has seen a sharp increase in the number of egg product factories over the past few years. There are now 14 producing liquid pasteurised products for the food and food-service sectors. A trade agreement with the EU, finalised in 2011, will gradually lower the import duties on egg products to zero over time.

Taiwan has also dramatically expanded its egg products sector with several new factories, bringing the total to 11 processing fresh liquid products. As there is no domestic powder production, this demand is covered by imports.

Compared to many other regions of the world, eggs are not cheap in South-east Asia. Several multinational food processors operate in this region and they frequently rely on imported egg products both frozen and dried. Local food processors also require eggs of the high hygiene and microbiological standard found in imported products, but otherwise eggs are mostly broken manually 'in-house' in bakeries. The food processing industry in this region is huge and eggs are a popular ingredient in many of the diets. Finished food products are often processed for export to Japan, Europe and North America and these manufacturers require egg products of international standard. Eleven plants in the region process around 70,000 tonnes of eggs into liquid egg, and one plant in Thailand also produces dried products. Three Thai plants supply the domestic food and food-service industries with pasteurised products, one of which manufactures dried products.

Due to its proximity to Singapore, Malaysian egg processors (of which there are three) supply this market, which has three small plants, with most of its local requirements for liquid pasteurised egg products.

Both the Philippines and Indonesia have one small plant but the demand for the bulk of egg products is met by imports from the US, Europe and India.

As the egg products sector in South-east Asia is relatively small, large volumes of products are imported.

February 2012

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Americas Produce 20 Per Cent of the World’s Eggs
06 March 2012


 


While the Americas region still accounts for one in five of the world's eggs, the annual rate of increase there has slowed to less than one per cent, according to Terry Evans in his new series examining the trends on egg production across the globe. More than 40 per cent of the region’s eggs are produced in the US but continued rapid expansion in output is forecast for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Peru.

Between 2000 and 2012, world egg production will have expanded by a little below two per cent a year from 51.2 million tonnes to almost 65 million tonnes (table 1). As a region, the Americas has exhibited a similar growth rate as output there has climbed from 10.4 million tonnes to an estimated near 13 million tonnes. However, latterly, the annual increase in this region has fallen short of one per cent, primarily because growth in the US, the region's largest producer accounting for some 43 per cent of total output, is forecast to increase production this year and next by less than one per cent.

In 2010, the most recent year for which production data is available for every country, the Americas accounted for almost 12.7 million tonnes out of the global total of some 63.6 million tonnes (table 2). However, since 2000, the Americas' share of world production has slipped somewhat, from just above to a little below 20 per cent.
 






According to FAO data, the number of layers in the region in 2010 amounted to almost 1050 million out of a global total of some 6,500 million.

The region's capacity to process eggs appears to be a little under 20 per cent of all eggs produced. However, this figure masks a massive difference between the US and Canada, where the egg processors have the potential to utilise the best part of 30 per cent of table egg production and those countries in the south of the region where the processing capacity ranges from around nine per cent to three per cent or less, with an overall average of below seven per cent.

The ranking of the region's countries by output (table 3) reveals that the largest seven accounted for almost 11.5 million tonnes or more than 90 per cent of the total in 2010. In table 4 and figure 1 showing the performance of the leading producers since 2000, we have projected the data for 2011 and 2012. While we have concentrated on the leaders, it is worth pointing out that some of the smaller nations have recorded substantial expansions. Panama, for example, more than doubled output between 2000 and 2010, while Paraguay and the Dominican Republic increased production by 80 per cent or more. In Cuba and Uruguay, the industry expansion exceeded 40 per cent and Chile recorded a 33 per cent rise.

It should be noted that more often than not, the production data in these tables is for all hen eggs including hatching eggs for both the layer and broiler flocks. Globally, it is considered that hatching eggs represent around five per cent of the total though, on an individual country basis, the proportion accounted for by hatching eggs varies greatly depending on the size of the broiler flock in relation to the production of table eggs, and in some instances, the quantity of eggs produced for exporting either as hatching eggs or day-old chicks. The importance of the broiler sector in this calculation is well exemplified by the USA and Brazil where hatching eggs represent a large proportion (12 to 13 per cent) of total hen egg production.
 






Egg production in the US in 2010 at 7,622 million dozen, showed a one per cent increase on the 2009 figure of 7,546 million dozen. Hatching eggs are estimated to account for some 982.7 million dozen or 13 per cent of this total. Estimates for both 2011 and 2012 point to gains of just 0.4 per cent, though for table eggs, the percentage gains are roughly double this, the totals estimated to rise to 6,603 and 6,645 million dozen, respectively.

Table egg production in the US for 2010 is put at 6,550 million dozen, of which just over 57 per cent will have been sold via retailers, almost 32 per cent to breakers for foodservice, manufacturing, retail and export, some eight per cent to institutional outlets and a little over three per cent exported in shell.

The commercial flock (93 per cent lay white eggs) averages around 280 million, with over half of the birds found in the five largest egg producing states – Iowa (52 million), Ohio (27.5 million) Pennsylvania (24 million), Indiana (22 million) and California (19.5 million).

There are some 64 companies in America with more than one million layers, of which 14 have over five million. Some 80 per cent of the country's flock is owned by members of an egg co-operative, United Egg producers (UEP). In 2011, UEP and the Humane Society of the United States (HSUS) agreed to work together towards the enactment of comprehensive new Federal legislation for all US layers. The proposed legislation would require that conventional cages, currently used by more than 95 per cent of the industry, be replaced over an ample phase-out period, by the new enriched colony cage systems. This change could cost the egg industry an additional $4 billion over the next decade and a half.

Converting egg numbers to weight depends on what is considered to be the average weight of an egg. For table eggs in the US, this is considered to be 60g. So, taking a slightly lower figure to allow for hatching eggs, by 2012 total egg output in the US will be in the region of 5.5 million tonnes. However, one long-term projection to 2020 does not see this figure rising above 5.7 million tonnes. Indeed, even this may be optimistic depending on the impact of the change from conventional batteries to enriched colony cages has on the industry. This switch in production systems will increase production costs that may not be quickly recouped from the market, applying a brake to the rate of growth. There is also the possibility of increased imports from Mexico putting pressure on prices which would also act as a disincentive to US expansion.

Another problem facing US producers is how the use of corn (maize) for ethanol will impact on feed costs. In 2011-12, it is estimated that ethanol production will utilise 37 per cent of the crop compared with 35 per cent for animal feed. Nevertheless, some easing is anticipated in grain values and hence feed prices in the year ahead.
 



Figure 1. Leading egg producers in the Americas (million tonnes)
 
Mexico is the second largest producer in the region its industry’s output having expanded by 600,000 tonnes or 33 per cent since 2000, although according to FAO figures, latterly annual growth has been contained to less than one per cent. However, another source points to a more rapid expansion. Whatever, output is likely to be in excess of 2.5 million tonnes in 2012. Some 95 per cent of the birds are brown–eggers and all are housed in conventional cages. The likely ban on this system of production in the US in the foreseeable future has led to the view that some American egg operations may set up units in Mexico specifically for the US market.

Brazil’s egg industry expanded by 29 per cent during the first decade of this century as output reached 1.95 million tonnes in 2010. Output should top two million tonnes in 2011 but here, as in the US, a significant proportion (possibly 14 per cent) will be hatching eggs. All the commercial sector is housed in cages and some three-quarters of production is white-shelled. The quantity of eggs broken out is estimated to be around five per cent although the processing capacity is considerably higher than this.

Although Columbia’s industry appears to have suffered a setback in 2010 compared with the two previous years, output is still almost 60 per cent above the 2000 level and will soon come close to 600,000 tonnes a year.

Egg production in Argentina grew by around 55 per cent over the years 2000 to 2010 as it climbed from 327,000 tonnes to more than 500,000 tonnes. The figures for this country provide a good example to highlight the difficulties in assessing egg production by weight. According to the data provided by the Argentinean authorities to the FAO, the number of layers in 2010 totalled 36.1 million. Egg output is put at almost 9,020 million, equivalent to an average of some 250 eggs per bird. However, the tonnage of eggs produced is calculated at just over 505,000 tonnes (table 2) and pointing to an average egg weight of 56g. Now, according to a report on Argentina's laying industry published by the well respected International Egg Commission (IEC), the number of layers in 2010 totalled 38 million and the average egg weight was 63.5g, yielding an output of 660,563 tonnes, which points to an average yield of some 274 eggs per bird. The 2010 output figure was some 15 per cent up on 2009, reflecting a similar percentage increase in the number of layers. Whichever series is more correct, there can be no doubting that Argentina’s egg industry has experienced dramatic growth in the past decade or so. Only one per cent of production is considered to come from non-cage systems, while the split between brown– and white–shelled eggs is said to be 45:55.

Industry growth in Canada since 2000 has averaged just 1.4 per cent a year, with total hen egg production in 2010 of some 429,000 tonnes comparing with around 400,000 tonnes back in 2005/06. The quantity broken out continues to rise and currently represents about 23 per cent of table egg production.

Peru, the seventh largest producer (table 3) increased output by more than 75 per cent between 2000 and 2010, with an average annual growth approaching six per cent. Some 96 per cent of layers are in cages with a similar proportion producing white–shelled eggs.

March 2012

[Mustang Sally Farm]

USDA International Egg and Poultry

Reports» Global» International Egg and Poultry Review: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2021

21 March 2012
International Egg and Poultry Review: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2021
Growth in world meat consumption is projected to increase about 2.2 percent per year during 2012-2021.


 
•World meat demand and imports continue strong growth, especially in many middle- and low-income countries. Projected global growth for overall meat consumption averages more than 2 percent annually over the next decade, with per capita consumption increasing for each major type of meat (beef, pork, and poultry).
 

•The projections assume that policies will continue to be used in Russia to stimulate domestic pork and poultry production and to reduce imports.
 


Growth in world meat consumption is projected to increase about 2.2 percent per year during 2012-2021. Global per capita meat consumption continues to increase and meat shipments from major exporters rise about 1.8 percent per year. The projected growth rates of exports from major exporters of beef, pork, and poultry meat are 2.5, 1.2, and 2.1 percent per year, respectively. During this period, exports rise 1.7 million tons for beef, 0.7 million for pork, and 1.9 million for poultry.
 
Poultry meat imports by major importers are projected to increase by 1.5 million tons (21%) between 2012 and 2021. Strong growth in imports is projected for much of the world except, most noticeably, for Russia and the EU (where policies limit imports), and for Japan and Canada.
 •Poultry imports by Africa and the Middle East now account for more than 40 percent of imports by the major importers. Income and population growth boosts demand in the projections. In addition, ongoing animal-disease concerns in a number of countries are expected to slow growth in production and to increase demand for imports. As a result, the region’s imports grow more than the rest of the world combined and by 2021 account for nearly 50 percent of world imports.
 

•Rising consumer incomes increase poultry demand and imports in Mexico and the Central America and Caribbean region. Poultry products remain less expensive than beef or pork, further stimulating demand. Mexico’s domestic poultry production continues to increase during the projection period, but rises at a slower rate than consumption, with the result that imports rise by 0.22 million tons (28 percent).
 

•Russia’s poultry imports are projected to decline sharply during the next 5 years. The projections assume that Russian policies will restrain poultry imports and stimulate domestic poultry production. Higher poultry prices and slower income growth inhibit per capita poultry consumption and import growth.
 

•In South Korea, increasing per capita consumption combined with environmental concerns that limit production growth, boost imports by 30 percent during the next decade.
 

•Because of avian influenza, some major poultry-exporting countries, such as Thailand and China, have shifted most of their exports to fully cooked products, and are projected to continue to do so. Because of higher production costs, these cooked products will be marketed to higher income countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
 

•China’s rising consumption of poultry meat is met by expanding domestic production. The country’s growth in poultry exports slightly exceeds the increase in imports.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS – Population to Top One Billion in the Americas

With an annual growth rate of a little below one per cent a year, the human population of the Americas will top one billion in 2017, representing 13.5 per cent of the world total, writes Terry Evans as he examines the trends in the human population and per–capita egg consumption in the Americas.

 



Of the current estimate for 2012 of 954 million, two–thirds live in just three countries, the US (316 million), Brazil (198 million) and Mexico (116 million).

No country measures egg consumption directly, the published data being derived from a number of calculations, all of which incur margins of error – some quite large – regarding the number of layers, egg yield, the average egg weight where uptake is expressed in the number of kilogrammes per person, and last but not least, the size of the human population.

Sadly, the FAO stopped calculating consumption data in 2007 (table 11/1). Even here, the data was not actual consumption but an estimate of the supplies available for consumption divided by estimates of the population. At that time, it looked as though average uptake in the Americas at just over 11kg per person was about 30 per cent above the world figure, which we currently estimate to be around 9.2kg per person.
 


There is clearly a wide range in egg consumption in this region but while there is scope for a considerable increase in the number of eggs eaten in many of the countries, as the human population is often relatively small, increases in uptake in total volume terms will not be large. Currently, the biggest consumers of eggs in the region (and possibly the world) on a per–person basis are the Mexicans. According to an IEC report, in 2010, each Mexican ate an average of 365 eggs.

Second in the region’s consumption league are the Americans with an average uptake in 2010 of 247 eggs per person, of which 171 were eaten as shell eggs and 76 (in shell egg equivalent) were consumed in product forms. However, the total eaten has declined from a peak of 258 per person achieved in 2006, and the latest estimate for 2011, which reveals a further slight reduction to 246 eggs. USDA economists foresee the slide continuing towards 234 eggs in 2015.

In Canada, while consumption of eggs in shell declined sharply between 2009 and 2010 from 148 to 142, the total uptake actually increased from 193 to 195 per person as a result of a large rise in the quantity eaten as egg products from 45 to 53 per person.

For 2010, Brazilians ate 132 eggs per person but there, in sharp contrast to the Americans and Canadians, the number consumed as products was only eight per person.

According to one source, consumption in Argentina jumped from 210 to 239 per person between 2009 and 2010 as a result of a near 15 per cent increase in egg production. Uptake in products is slowly growing and is currently assessed at a little over 13 eggs per person.

March 2012

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Overview of This Week’s Poultry Industry News
05 April 2012


ANALYSIS – With perhaps the possible timing in the days before Easter, Germany may be standing on the brink of another dioxin crisis as unacceptably high levels of the toxins have been found in eggs from one organic farm and two smallholdings in North Rhine–Westphalia, writes senior editor, Jackie Linden. With the recommendations for changes to poultry meat inspection in the EU expected in June this year, poultry processing plants in June this year, the industry fears it will be facing added pressure and costs. The EU is preparing to lift its ban on imports of fresh poultry meat from Thailand, which has been in place since bird flu first hit that country.

In the last few days, it has emerged that eggs in the German state of North Rhine–Westphalia (NRW) have been found to be contaminated with dioxins. The alarm was raised when high levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were found in eggs from one organic farm in the state. The levels were found to be very high in two of the houses on the farm, which has 25,000 hens and sells its eggs to supermarkets. Subsequently, routine analysis has revealed elevated dioxin levels in eggs from two smallholders who sold directly to the public.
 
The source of the contamination is under investigation but the supposition must be the feed, now that more than one farm is affected. The fact that these were small–scale and/or organic egg producers highlights that food safety issues can occur on any farming system.
 
Eggs from affected farms have been withdrawn from sale and the state authorities have made it clear that the health risks from consuming these eggs would be negligible.
 
German pig and poultry sectors were hit by a major dioxin crisis in late 2010 and 2011, which badly impacted the industries in other EU countries and led to the bankruptcy of the feed ingredient at the source of contamination and EU-wide measures aimed at preventing a recurrence.
 
Commentators say there are risks inherent in the forthcoming new meat inspection rules in the EU.
 
The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is expected to publish its recommendations for changes to meat inspection in poultry processing plants in June this year. This will be followed by changes to the meat inspection regulations for game animals in June 2013.

The recommendations will take a risk–based approach to inspection and will follow the review from the panel on Animal Health and Welfare (AHAW), the panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ) and the panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM).

However, there will be concerns with in the different sectors that the new inspection criteria will put added pressure and costs on the industry.

The new recommendations for poultry, beef cattle and other farmed animals will follow the opinion issued in October last year for pig meat inspection.
 
EU Member States have supported the Commission‘s proposal to lift the restrictions on imports of fresh poultry meat from Thailand from 1 July 2012.
 
A prolonged drought has been identified as the main cause of a dramatic rise of feed prices in Spain, which have risen 12 per cent since January to €0.33 per kilo.

Research from the UK shows that exposure to stomach acid actually primes Campylobacter. New research at the Institute of Food Research shows that not only does Campylobacter have ways of surviving acid shock, it can also respond and adapt to the acidic environment making it better able to colonise the intestine and enter host cells there. These characteristics highlights how well Campylobacter is adapted to infect humans and help in the search for ways to control this foodborne pathogen, which is associated with the handling or consumption of undercooked poultry meat.
 
Turning to bird flu news, the H5N1 highly pathogenic form of the disease has hit a commercial poultry farm in Yunnan province in southern China, and new outbreaks of disease have been reported in Nepal and Bangladesh. The low-pathogenic form of the virus was found in game birds (pheasants) in Ireland and in native chickens in Taiwan.
 
Jackie Linden

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Monday, April 16, 2012

South Korea Opens Market to Philippine Poultry

PHILIPPINES - South Korea has agreed to open its market to Philippine poultry products after declaring them safe.


"Chicken from triple-A slaughterhouses may start entering South Korea. [Seoul’s] decision to start accepting our chicken products means that we have complied with their requirements,” the Philippines' Bureau of Animal Industry Director Efren Nuestro said.
 
Asia News Network reports that South Korea’s poultry industry has been affected by the dreaded avian flu or bird flu, which is caused by viruses that occur naturally among birds.
 
The Philippines is one of the few countries in Asia that remains free from avian flu, which has led to multibillion-dollar losses in the global poultry industry.
 
The opening of South Korea to local chicken products is one of the important points discussed during the Philippines-South Korea bilateral meeting on agriculture held in Manila in November last year.
 
The Philippine government said it wanted to start the export of local chicken products before the end of the first semester.
 
The Department of Agriculture noted that the South Korean market was as big as the Japanese market which has relied on the Philippines for its poultry products after Thailand was hit by the avian flu. So far, Japan remains the top importer of Yakitori chicken from the Philippines.
 

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Poultry

Broiler Production Higher in 2013

U.S. broiler meat production is expected to total 37.5 billion pounds in 2013, up 2.5 percent from 2012, with the growth spread over the year as processors expand production in response to generally better conditions. The increase in broiler meat production is expected to come from both a greater number of birds slaughtered and a small increase in average bird weights. There are two primary factors that will likely influence expanded broiler meat production in 2013. The first is the degree to which processors feel demand will reflect expansion in the general economy. The second factor is what integrators expect for changes to corn and soybean prices. At the present time corn prices for the marketing year are forecast to average $4.20- $5.00 per bushel in 2012/13, down from $5.95-$6.25 per bushel a year earlier. This decline will be mitigated by relatively high prices for soybean meal. Prices for 48 percent protein soybean meal are forecast at $350-$365 per ton in 2012/13, compared to $360 per ton the previous year.

Broiler meat production in first-quarter 2012 totaled 9.1 billion pounds, a 2.2 percent decline from the same period in 2011. The number of broilers slaughtered fell by 2.6 percent to 2.1 billion birds. Partially offsetting this decline in birds slaughtered was a small (0.6 percent) gain in the average weight of birds at slaughter to 5.83 pounds. With the number of chicks placed for growout down about 4 percent from the previous year, the number of broilers slaughtered would normally be expected to be down more, but due to the Leap Year first-quarter 2012 had an additional processing day compared with first-quarter 2011.
 
The broiler meat production forecast for second-quarter 2012 is 9.1 billion pounds, down 4.3 percent from a year earlier. Broiler production is expected to be below the previous year until fourth-quarter 2012 when processors are expected to respond to a gradually strengthening economy and lower grain prices.
 
Over the last 5 weeks, (April 7 through May 5), the number of chicks being placed for growout has averaged 3.9 percent lower than in the same period in 2011. In addition, the number of eggs placed in incubators has been down 4.4 percent. These estimates point toward continued declines in broiler meat production in second-quarter 2012 and into the third-quarter.
 
Broiler cold storage stocks totaled 549 million pounds at the end of first-quarter 2012, 17 percent below first-quarter 2011. The decline in cold storage holdings extended to most of the categories in the report. Most of the decrease is attributable to the lower broiler meat production in the first quarter. With broiler meat production forecast lower than the previous year through the first three quarters of 2012, cold storage of broiler products is also expected to be below the previous year through the same period. Cold storage is expected to rise in fourth-quarter 2012 as production rises. Much of the decline at the end of the first quarter is attributable to lower holdings of leg quarters and wings, down 27 percent and 52 percent from a year earlier. Some of the decline, especially for leg quarters, is the result of strong exports during first-quarter 2012.
 
The 12-city wholesale price for whole broilers is expected to average 86 to 89 cents per pound in 2012, up from 79 cents per pound the previous year as lower production through the first three quarters of 2012 is expected to place upward pressure on prices. Prices in 2013 are expected to fall slightly and are forecast at 82 to 89 cents per pound, as expected higher production in 2013 gradually placing downward pressure on prices.
 
Turkey Production To Post Small Increase in 2013

Turkey meat production is expected to increase in 2013 to 6 billion pounds, up almost 1 percent from the previous year and the third consecutive year with a production increase. The production increase is expected to come from both an increase in the number of birds slaughtered and slightly higher average live weights at slaughter. With higher prices throughout 2011 and expected in 2012, turkey producers should have an incentive to increase production in 2013, as long as the general economic indicators remain positive.

In first-quarter 2012, turkey meat production was 1.4 billion pounds, up 3.1 percent from the first quarter of 2011. After rising only slightly in third-quarter 2011 compared to a year earlier and falling in the fourth quarter, turkey processors have responded to the strong prices for whole birds that were present throughout 2011. The increase in turkey meat production was the result of a moderate increase in the number of birds slaughtered (up 1.7 percent) and higher average weights for the turkeys at slaughter (up 1.3 percent). With turkey prices higher throughout 2011, turkey producers have had an incentive to increase production, with total production for 2012 estimated at 6.1 billion pounds, 3.3 percent higher than the previous year.

Turkey Stocks Higher

With higher production expected throughout 2012, cold storage holdings of turkey products throughout the year are also expected to be higher than in 2011. At the end of first-quarter 2012, turkey stocks were 376 million pounds, 15 percent higher than in first-quarter 2011. The increase was from a combination of higher stocks of whole birds, up 6 percent, and increases in stocks of turkey parts and products (up 23 percent). Stocks of whole birds had been lower than the previous year through the first 10 months of 2011, and even though stocks are now higher than the previous year, they are still well below historical levels. For example, at the end of March in 2009, stocks of whole birds totaled 253 million pounds, 96 million pounds or 61 percent higher than at the end of March 2012. Stock levels were also higher for all the other categories of turkey products. While most of the gain in quantity was due to higher cold storage holdings in the unclassified category, stocks of turkey legs were also much higher than the previous year (up 73 percent).

Wholesale prices for whole hen turkeys are expected to average $1.07 to $1.11 per pound in 2012, up about 7 percent from a year earlier. Even with larger beginning stocks and increases in production expected in 2012, whole bird prices are expected to remain above the previous year throughout 2012, although the price gap on a year-over-year basis is expected to narrow considerably as the year progresses. In 2013, any upward pressure on prices from an improving domestic economy is expected to be offset by higher production.

Egg Production Down Slightly in 2013

Table egg production is expected to total 6.6 billion dozen in 2013, down fractionally from 2012. While 2013 is expected to have higher prices for many meat products and improving general economic conditions, egg producers are expected to face lower prices for the remainder of 2012. While the rate of lay is expected to very gradually increase, the decrease in production is expected to come from a cut in the size of the laying flock.

Hatching egg production is expected to total almost 1.1 billion dozen in 2013, a marginal increase after a decline in 2011 and 2012. The expansion in hatching egg production is based on the forecast for higher broiler production starting at the end of 2012 and carrying through 2013.

Egg Production Higher in First-Quarter 2012

Egg production totaled 1.91 billion dozen in first-quarter 2012, up slightly (1 percent) from the previous year. The increase was due to greater production of table eggs at 1.65 billion dozen, up 1.7 percent from the previous year. Production of hatching eggs totaled 258 million dozen, down 3 percent as the production of broiler-type eggs continue down significantly from a year earlier. The average number of birds in the table egg flock during first-quarter 2012 was slightly higher (up 0.7 percent) than in 2011 at 285 million birds. Table egg production for the rest of 2012 is expected to continue to be slightly higher than the previous year during the second and third quarters and about even with the previous year in the fourth quarter. Production of hatching eggs is expected to have the opposite pattern with lower production through the first three quarters of 2012 and higher production in the fourth quarter as broiler processors react to the incentives of a generally better economy, higher prices, and slightly lower grain prices.

Egg Prices Higher in 2013

Better overall economic conditions in 2013 are expected to generate greater domestic demand for shell eggs and egg products, especially from the food service sector. However, higher production is expected to offset the demand and leave overall wholesale egg prices in 2013 at $1.00-$1.08 per dozen, only slightly higher than in 2012.

During first-quarter 2012, the wholesale price in the New York market averaged $1.09 per dozen for Grade A large eggs. This is up almost 3 percent from a year earlier, in part due to the high prices at the beginning of the year carried over from strong fourth-quarter 2011 prices of $1.31 per dozen. Shell egg prices have fallen seasonally since the Easter holiday and second quarter prices in the New York market are expected to be average $0.91-$0.93 per dozen, down 14 percent from the previous year.
 
Egg Exports up to 266 Million Dozen in 2013

Exports of shell eggs and egg products are expected to expand to the equivalent of 266 million dozen in 2013, slightly higher than the forecast for 2012. Higher shipments in 2013 are expected to be generated primarily by stronger demand from a number of Asian countries, including Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea. Egg exports in 2012 are expected to contract, with smaller shipments to Mexico and Canada. One factor that could affect the impact the 2012 forecast is high demands for breaking eggs and egg products from EU countries facing lower production.
 
In the first quarter of 2012, egg and egg product exports totaled 63 million dozen, down 6 percent from the previous year. Much of the export decrease occurred in March, when shipments were down 13 percent from the previous year. The March decline is chiefly the result of sharp drops in shipments to both Korea and the United Arab Emirates. Shipments to Korea during first-quarter 2012 were only 1.1 million dozen, down 88 percent from the same period in 2011.
 
Poultry Trade

Broiler Shipments Rose in March 2012

Broiler shipments rose in March 2012 from a year earlier. March broiler shipments totaled 595 million pounds, a 7-percent increase from last March. U.S. broiler meat exports remain strong in spite of higher leg-quarter prices in the first-quarter of 2012 than in the same period of 2011. Cuba, one of the top seven U.S. broiler markets, imported almost 41 million pounds more of broiler meat from the U.S. in March 2012 than a year earlier. Broiler shipments to Russia, the second-largest U.S. broiler market, were up 96 percent from last year. Other foreign markets such as Georgia, Mexico, and Lithuania also made considerable contributions to March 2012 increase in broiler shipments.

For 2013, it is projected that the United States will ship 6.975 billion pounds of broiler meat to countries around the world. Next year’s projection is less than 1 percent below the 2012 projection for broiler shipments. Two reasons for this small drop include greater domestic demand and a continued decline in shipments to Russia.

Turkey Shipments Continue To Climb in March

March 2012 turkey shipments were up from a year ago. A total of 64.2 million pounds of turkey meat was shipped abroad, a 9-percent increase over March 2011. Turkey shipments to Mexico, Hong Kong, Canada, and the Philippines were all up from a year ago. The largest increase was exports to the Philippines, at 368 percent. Next after the Philippines, shipments to Canada increased 65 percent from last March. Volumes of turkey meat shipped to smaller markets, such as Jamaica and Gabon, were also up in March 2012 compared with a year ago.

Turkey shipments in 2013 are projected to reach an all-time high. It is projected that turkey exports will total 730 million pounds, 1 percent higher than the projections for 2012, which will be a record if it holds. The primary reason for the increase in turkey exports is the continuing increase in shipments to Mexico, the largest U.S. turkey market.