India’s 2012/13 Rice Production Forecast Lowered 2.0 Million Tons
17 August 2012
INDIA - Global rice production for 2012/13 is forecast at 463.2 million tons (milled basis), down 1.9 million tons from last month’s forecast and 1.8 million tons below a year earlier. This month’s downward revision is largely due to a smaller global area forecast.
At 158.8 million hectares, global rice area is 1.2 million hectares below last month’s forecast, with India and Brazil accounting for most of the downward revision in global rice area. Global area is virtually unchanged from a year earlier. The average yield remains forecast at 4.35 tons per hectare, fractionally below the year earlier record.
India accounts for the bulk of this month’s downward revision in global production. India’s 2012/13 crop was lowered 2.0 million tons to 98.0 million tons due to a delayed, deficient, and poorly distributed monsoon rainfall that has reduced area and yield potential for growers dependent on the seasonal rains. The forecasted crop is 6 per cent below the year earlier record. India’s 2012/13 total rice area was lowered 1.0 million hectares to 43.0 million hectares, a drop of 1.4 million hectares from a year earlier. At 3.42 tons per hectare, the average yield is down 3 per cent from last year.
Despite the smaller crop, India is projected to have adequate supplies of rice for both its domestic market and global buyers. Elsewhere in Asia, North Korea’s 2012/13 production was lowered 100,000 tons to 1.5 million tons based on severe drought in May and June that was followed by heavy rains and flooding in July. Outside Asia, Brazil’s 2012/13 production was lowered 850,000 tons to 7.82 million based on a much lower area estimate recommended by the US Agricultural Counselor in Brasilia. At 2.4 million hectares, Brazil’s rice area is 350,000 hectares below a year earlier and the lowest in more than a half a century. Finally, the US 2012/13 crop forecast was lowered 1 per cent to 6.05 million tons based on a weaker yield reported by the US Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The southern United States—where the bulk of the US crop is grown—has experienced an extremely hot summer.
These downward revisions were partially offset by several increases. First, China’s 2012/13 crop was raised 1.0 million tons to a record 142.0 million tons based on slightly higher area and yield estimates. Weather has generally been favorable in China for rice production this year. South Korea’s 2012/13 production was raised 100,000 tons to 4.3 million based on a higher area forecast recommended by the US Agricultural Counselor in Seoul. This is the first year-to-year area increase for South Korea since 2001/02. Finally, Mexico’s 2012/13 production forecast was raised 25,000 tons to 153,000 tons based on a larger area estimate recommended by the US Agricultural Counselor in Mexico City. At 45,000 hectares, rice area in Mexico is the highest since 2009/10.
Despite the downward revision in production, global rice supplies are expected to be plentiful in 2012/13. Record crops are projected for four Asian exporters—Cambodia, China, Thailand, and Vietnam—and a near-record crop is projected for Pakistan. Among the non-Asian exporters, Australia, Egypt, and the United States are project to harvest larger crops in 2012/13 than in 2011/12.
Global production for 2011/12 is estimated at a record 465.0 million tons, up 1.1 million tons from last month’s estimate and 3.5 per cent above a year earlier. India accounted for the bulk of this month’s upward revision in 2011/12 production. India’s 2011/12 crop was raised 920,000 tons to a record 104.32 million tons based on the Government of India’s Fourth Advance Estimate. Indonesia’s 2011/12 crop was raised 200,000 tons to 36.5 million based on a slightly higher harvested area for its third crop. These upward revisions were partly offset by a 40,000-ton reduction in Brazil’s 2011/12 production forecast to 7.82 million tons based on a smaller yield reported by the Government of Brazil.
Global disappearance for 2012/13 is projected at a record 466.4 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month’s forecast, but almost 2 per cent larger than a year earlier. Consumption forecasts were raised this month for China and Indonesia, but lowered for Brazil and India.
On a year-to-year basis, Bangladesh, Burma, China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam account for most of the expected increase in global domestic use. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 101.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons from last month and 3.2 million tons below a year earlier, with India and Brazil accounting for most of this month’s downward revision. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2012/13 is calculated at 21.8 per cent, down from 22.9 per cent a year earlier. Despite the downward revision in production, global rice supplies are expected to be plentiful in 2012/13. Record crops are projected for four Asian exporters—Cambodia, China, Thailand, and Vietnam—and a near-record crop is projected for Pakistan.
Among the non-Asian exporters, Australia, Egypt, and the United States are project to harvest larger crops in 2012/13 than in 2011/12. Global production for 2011/12 is estimated at a record 465.0 million tons, up 1.1 million tons from last month’s estimate and 3.5 per cent above a year earlier. India accounted for the bulk of this month’s upward revision in 2011/12 production. India’s 2011/12 crop was raised 920,000 tons to a record 104.32 million tons based on the Government of India’s Fourth Advance Estimate. Indonesia’s 2011/12 crop was raised 200,000 tons to 36.5 million based on a slightly higher harvested area for its third crop. These upward revisions were partly offset by a 40,000-ton reduction in Brazil’s 2011/12 production forecast to 7.82 million tons based on a smaller yield reported by the Government of Brazil. Global disappearance for 2012/13 is projected at a record 466.4 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month’s forecast, but almost 2 per cent larger than a year earlier. Consumption forecasts were raised this month for China and Indonesia, but lowered for Brazil and India.
On a year-to-year basis, Bangladesh, Burma, China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam account for most of the expected increase in global domestic use. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 101.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons from last month and 3.2 million tons below a year earlier, with India and Brazil accounting for most of this month’s downward revision. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2012/13 is calculated at 21.8 per cent, down from 22.9 per cent a year earlier.