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News: 150 days from birth is the average time you need to sell your pigs for slaughter and it is about 85 kgs on average.
 
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1  LIVESTOCKS / AGRI-NEWS / Re: The Meat Site: on: August 11, 2012, 09:40:35 AM
GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS - Chicken Output to Exceed 40MT in 2013 in the Americas

If chicken meat production maintains the expected growth this year and next, total output for the region will exceed 40 million tonnes in 2013, according to industry watcher, Terry Evans, in his latest analysis of the global poultry industry.

 



Global chicken meat production growth could well slow to around two per cent a year in the next decade, which contrasts with around four per cent in the 10 years to 2010. Nevertheless, the total is likely to approach 91 million tonnes this year and possibly 93 million tonnes in 2013. This compares with less than 59 million tonnes back in 2000 (Table 1). In broad terms, chicken meat production currently represents almost 88 per cent of poultry meat output compared with less than 86 per cent some 12 years ago.
 
Regarding international chicken meat data, it should be noted that the figures released by the FAO are for all chickens (i.e. table birds and culled layers) while the data published by other authorities such as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) do not include estimates of the meat from culled layers.
 
The five major regions (Table 1) have exhibited differing rates of growth. Based on FAO figures, over the period 2000 to 2010, both Africa and Asia have recorded increases of around 4.5 per cent a year, while growth in the other regions has been below four per cent, averaging 3.9 per cent in Europe, 3.7 per cent in Oceania and 3.5 per cent in the Americas. Since 2010, all the regions have recorded slower growth rates reflecting lower profitability in the face of higher costs (principally feed), while in some countries, disease outbreaks have also played a role in this scenario.



Since 2000, production in the Americas has escalated by a little more than three per cent a year from 27.2 million tonnes to an estimated 39.4 million tonnes this year. This has been slower than the global total of around 3.7 per cent hence this region has seen its share of world output slip three percentage points from 46.3 per cent to 43.3 per cent. For 2013, a 2.0 per cent gain would push total production above 40 million tonnes.
 
The year 2010 is the latest for which figures are available for all countries (Table 2) and these reveal that there were seven countries in the Americas producing at least a million tonnes of chicken meat a year and combined, they accounted for over 35 million tonnes or more than 91 per cent of the total (Tables 2 and 3). However, just two countries – the US and Brazil – were responsible for 27.7 million tonnes or 72 per cent! While production in the USA grew by some three million tonnes or 22 per cent in the decade to 2010, Brazil’s industry expanded by a massive 4.7 million tonnes or 79 per cent.





According to USDA economists (Table 4), broiler production in the top seven producing countries in the region grew at an average 3.7 per cent a year between 2000 and 2012 from 24.5 million tonnes to an estimated 37.8 million tonnes. If the envisaged expansion of two per cent is achieved next year, output from these seven countries will climb to around 38.6 million tonnes. As the data for Peru has been taken from FAO statistics, a small proportion of the annual totals for this country will include culled layers. It looks as though broiler output in the US will approach 17 million tonnes in 2013. In Brazil, the figure should exceed 13.5 million tonnes, while in Mexico, third in the ranking table, output might hit the three million tonnes mark.

 


Figure 1. Leading chicken meat producers in the Americas – 2000 to 2013 (forecast)
 
The US is the world’s largest chicken meat producer, output (i.e. total production less condemnations) having climbed to a record near 16.7 million tonnes in 2011. However, the impact of higher costs on profit margins is expected to produce a near one per cent cut–back this year to 16.6 million tonnes.
 
A more optimistic view is taken of 2013 with production recovering by 1.7 per cent to 16.8 million tonnes. The actual extent of any increase will be influenced primarily by two factors, namely the degree to which processors consider that chicken demand will reflect any recovery in the US economy and also, how integrators feel about changes in the costs of production, especially feed prices. According to US economist Dr Paul Aho, there were a couple of factors that could lead to lower maize prices but recent drought conditions (up to mid–July) make that scenario unlikely. If there were to be a good maize crop this year, the proportion going for ethanol production would drop; the opposite will be true should the harvest be poor.
 
The dramatic rise in maize prices has boosted production worldwide. In 2000/01, maize production outside America was less than 340 million tonnes while the US produced some 250 million tonnes, giving it a 42 per cent market share. This year, production outside the US could reach 600 million tonnes compared with an early estimate of 350 million tonnes within the US, reducing its market share to 37 per cent or less.
 
However, should the recovery in the US economy slow down, the rate of expansion in chicken output could be curtailed somewhat. Tough economic conditions through 2011 resulted in several companies either having to close or be acquired by competitors. Dr Aho considers that as much as 80 per cent of US production could eventually come from just three or four companies. USDA long-term forecasts point to production increasing by only 1.3 per cent a year from now until 2021 when broiler output is expected to reach 19 million tonnes.



While, as for all countries, the estimates of chicken meat production vary somewhat according to source, there can be no doubt that the industry in Brazil has recorded a rapid increase since 2000 with an annual rate of growth in the six– to seven per cent range. Currently, it is considered that the rate of increase has been halved to around three per cent, reflecting uncertainties regarding the likely growth in exports, domestic consumption and higher production costs. Chicken meat output this year is likely to amount to some 13.3 million tonnes. USDA forecasts anticipate a growth of around 2.4 per cent a year which would put the 2020 total at around 16 million tonnes. In contrast, a Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture/Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation study expects a much more optimistic 4.2 per cent a year increase to 2021/22.
 
Late in 2011, the Brazilian anti-trust regulator approved the merger of Sadia and Perdigão to create Brasil Foods SA (BRF), which now supplies 35 per cent of the domestic market and accounts for nearly half of Brazil’s exports. BRF is currently building a processing plant in the United Arab Emirates capable of producing 80,000 tonnes a year of further-processed chicken products.
 
Continued vertical integration in Mexico is helping offset the negative impact of high grain prices, according to a USDA report and as a result, it is anticipated that production this year will show a small gain over 2011 at a shade over 2.9 million tonnes, while three million tonnes could be achieved in 2013. As well as the worst drought for 70 years, the industry is having to contend with high grain prices as well as increased competition for feed from the pork and beef sectors. The country was also been hit by a series of outbreaks of highly-pathogenic avian influenza from the end of June 2012. The initial focus of the outbreaks was in Jalisco, the country’s leading egg-producing state with the resulting cull soon running into the millions. If the infection spreads to other regions, Mexico’s chicken meat industry could suffer production and trade difficulties for some time to come.
 
Although a much smaller industry than in the US or Brazil, chicken production in Argentina more than doubled between 2000 and 2011, reaching close to 1.8 million tonnes with an average growth rate of 6.7 per cent. Continued expansion is anticipated, boosted by increasing consumption allied to an expanding export trade. Consequently, production in 2013 is expected to come close to two million tonnes.
 
Canada operates a supply-management scheme for broiler production via a quota system, the quantities being reappraised on an eight–week cycle. In the decade to 2010, output expanded at 1.6 per cent a year but since then, growth has been limited to only 0.6 per cent and in general, it is considered that future growth will primarily be linked to population increases and to a lesser extent, dietary preferences.
 
The two other countries with annual broiler outputs in excess of a million tonnes, according to the USDA (Table 4) – Peru and Colombia – recorded good annual growth rates of 6.5 per cent and 5.4 per cent, respectively, from 2000 to 2010. If Peru has managed to maintain that momentum, annual output will have exceeded that of Canada. However, in Colombia, production has since slowed to around one per cent per year.
 
August 2012
2  LIVESTOCKS / CATTLE, CARABAO, GOAT & SHEEP / Re: World Cattle News: on: August 11, 2012, 09:38:55 AM

Friday, August 10, 2012

Namibia Beef Exports Fall

NAMIBIA - Namibian beef exports dropped significantly in the first half of 2012 compared to the first six months of 2012. Volumes exported were 10,772 tons, less than half the amount exported in the same time frame last year.


Increased costs of production and decreased demand for beef had a major impact on young cattle price.

Production and prices suffered, due to the drop in export markets, but also due to lower domestic demand.

Competition for exports to South Africa was faced by Botswana selling excess beef onto the market at reduced prices.

Beef imports also fell as a result of the foot and mouth outbreak in South Africa as well as a partial ban applied by the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Fisheries on beef imports.
3  LIVESTOCKS / AGRI-NEWS / Re: American Hog News USDA on: August 11, 2012, 09:36:54 AM

USA Hog Markets
09 August 2012

 

US - Margins continued to weaken over the second half of July as feed costs moved steadily higher while hog prices failed to keep pace, writes Doug Lenhart.
 
One exception to that trend though has been in far deferred periods of 2013, where traders may be anticipating a more significant herd reduction due to the likelihood that sharply higher feed costs will stick in the new crop year. Forward margins remain at or below the 10th percentile through Q1 2013, and only about average from a historical perspective beyond that.
 
Crop conditions have been declining all summer, and now both corn and soybean condition rating indices are below 1988 for this point in the season. Analysts expect USDA to make another significant cut to their yield and production forecasts in the August WASDE report, with corn below 130 bushels per acre and soybeans under 40. Rainfall may still help to preserve soybean yield potential, and the next two weeks are seen as critical with the crop now moving through its pod-setting stage of development.
 
The hog market has been weak as the pork cutout is running about $10/cwt. or nine per cent below year-ago levels. Hot summer weather may be impacting grilling demand more than normal this season, and this in turn has limited strength in cash hog prices. Moreover, near to medium-term liquidation as producers cull herds in response to soaring feed costs may likewise pressure the market through the fall.
 
Producers continue to focus on the second half of 2013 as a combination of higher hog prices with a potential correction in the corn and soymeal markets may present the opportunity to protect margins at or above the 70th percentile.
 
3rd Qtr ’12 Most Recent Offering of $(12.81), the low was $(13.76), the high has been $14.07 and the 5 year percentile of 5.7 per cent.
 
4th Qtr ’12 Most Recent Offering of ($17.90), the low was ($19.23), the high has been $7.19 and the 5 year percentile of 2.3 per cent.
 
1st Qtr ’13 Most Recent Offering of ($9.94), the low was ($10.89), the high has been $6.04 and the 5 year percentile of 10.4 per cent.
 
2nd Qtr ’13 Most Recent Offering of $4.77, the low was $(0.45), the high has been $9.83 and the 5 year percentile of 41.2 per cent.
 
The Hog Margin calculation assumes that 73 lbs of soybean meal and 4.87 bushels of corn are required to produce 100 lean hog lbs. Additional assumed costs include $40 per cwt for other feed and non-feed expenses. Thank you to Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC (CIH) for the margin data. Please visit www.cihmarginwatch.com to subscribe to the CIH Margin Watch report.
 

4  LIVESTOCKS / AGRI-NEWS / Re: China Hog Industry News on: August 11, 2012, 09:35:11 AM

Zhongpin Continues to Invest in Tough Market
10 August 2012

CHINA - Chinese meat and food processing company, Zhongpin, has reported higher sales revenues and lower net income for the three months ended 30 June compared with the second quarter 2011.
 
Total sales revenues increased 11.4 per cent to $408.2 million for the three months ended 30 June from $366.5 million in the second quarter 2011 primarily due to higher sales volume for pork products sold at lower average selling prices.
 
Net income decreased 43.0 per cent to $11.0 million in the second quarter 2012 from $19.3 million in the second quarter 2011 primarily due to a lower gross profit margin, the cost of more employees to support expansion, higher salaries, rising labor and utility costs, and higher interest expenses and income taxes.

The higher expenses were mainly due to business expansion and intense competitive pressure in the pork market as the industry continues to consolidate and companies are required to vie aggressively to win additional market share in a variety of ways, Zhongpin said.
 
Basic earnings per common share (based on net income attributable to Zhongpin shareholders) decreased 39.6 per cent to $0.29 in the second quarter 2012 from $0.48 in the second quarter 2011. Average basic shares outstanding decreased 7.8 per cent to 37,189,322 shares in the second quarter 2012 from 40,355,502 shares in the second quarter 2011.

Diluted earnings per common share (based on net income attributable to Zhongpin shareholders) decreased 39.6 per cent to $0.29 in the second quarter 2012 from $0.48 in the second quarter 2011. Average diluted shares outstanding decreased 7.8 per cent to 37,209,695 shares in the second quarter 2012 from 40,365,654 shares in the second quarter 2011.
 
Zhongpin expects that sales revenues should be within a range of US$1.55 billion to $1.72 billion for 2012.

Gross profit margin is expected to be within the range of 8.6 per cent to 10.2 per cent. Net profit margin is expected to be within the range of 3.3 per cent to 4.2 per cent.

The resulting diluted earnings per share for the year 2012 is expected to be within the range of $1.36 to $1.92 per share, assuming average diluted common shares outstanding of about 37.5 million shares in 2012. Assumptions and judgments supporting the guidance are shown below.
 
Xianfu Zhu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer for Zhongpin, said: "We achieved good sales growth in the second quarter on higher tonnage at lower average prices, compared with last year's second quarter.
 
"The continuing intense competitive pressure due to the ongoing pork industry consolidation in China, and higher costs generally in China, have reduced our gross profit margin and increased our operating costs for this quarter and this year.
 
"We continued to expand our operations in the second quarter, but at a slower rate, to help secure our long-term growth and achieve a much stronger market position in the years ahead. Recently, we finished the construction for additional annual production capacity of 50,000 metric tons for prepared pork products and started trial production in July. With that addition, our total annual production capacity was 954,760 metric tons for all of our products at the end of July 2012.
 
"Pork prices were lower than expected, mainly due to intense competitive pressure as the industry continues to consolidate. Hog prices also declined, but not as rapidly as pork prices. Those were the main factors for our lower gross profit margin in the second quarter compared with last year's quarter.
 
"Our product growth strategy is to develop, produce, and sell more prepared pork products -- first, because customers like them, and second, because the products can be sold at higher profit margins. So the shift you see in our product mix -- with lower tonnage, lower prices, and lower sales revenues from frozen pork and higher numbers from our prepared pork products this quarter – reflects our strategy to use more of our resources to develop and produce our prepared pork products, because those are considerably more profitable and have a very attractive future. Chinese consumers today are embracing more easy-to-complete-and-serve meals, often based on the outstanding quality, safety, and taste of Zhongpin's prepared pork products. In some markets, we even sell complete kits for those meals.

"As of June 30, we offer more than 440 types of different categories of products.

"I believe the long-term outlook for China's pork industry and for Zhongpin is quite good, but given the pork industry's massive consolidation that is expected to continue with increasing intensity in the next several years, we believe that delivering a sustained pattern of higher net income and higher net cash flows in those coming years will be a difficult challenge."
 
Zhongpin is investing approximately $58.5 million to build a new production, research and development, and training complex in Changge, Henan province, excluding the cost of land use rights that it has already obtained.

When completed, this new facility should have an annual production capacity of about 100,000 metric tons for prepared pork products.

Alongside this new production facility, Zhongpin plans to develop a center for research and development, training, and quality assurance and control. Construction for the first phase with a production capacity of approximately 50,000 metric tons for prepared pork products started in the second quarter of 2011 and trial production started in July 2012.
 
Zhongpin established a joint venture company in June 2011, of which the Company owns 65 per cent, with Henan Xinda Animal Husbandry Company Limited. The joint venture company is financed by capital contributions and bank loans. All capital contributions to the joint venture company have been made. The joint venture company will provide 20,000 sire boars annually. Construction of the facility for sire boar breeding is continuing and the operations are expected to begin in the third quarter 2012.
 
Zhongpin is investing approximately $18.0 million in a cold-chain logistics distribution center in Anyang, Henan province. This distribution center will have processing capacity, a temperature adjustable warehouse with a floor area of approximately 27,000 square meters, a distribution center, and a quality control center. The distribution center will be used for third-party cold-chain logistics service. Zhongpin expects to put this distribution center into operation in the third quarter of 2012.
 
Zhongpin plans to invest approximately $87.5 million in a chilled and frozen food processing and distribution center in Kunshan, Jiangsu province, which is near Shanghai. The center will be built in three phases. The first phase will include a processing center, cold-chain logistics center, and business complex. Zhongpin expects to invest about $35.0 million on the first phase that should be put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2012.
 
Zhongpin will be investing approximately $10.5 million in a by-product processing plant in Changge, Henan province. This facility will have a production capacity for 100 million meters of casings and 300 billion units of raw material to make heparin sodium. The construction started in March 2012, and the new facility is expected to begin operations in the fourth quarter of 2012.
 
Zhongpin will be investing approximately $49.0 million to build a slaughtering and processing plant, low temperature prepared pork plant, and logistics center in Tangshan, Hebei province. This facility will have an annual production capacity of about 60,000 metric tons for chilled pork, 20,000 metric tons for frozen pork, and 22,000 metric tons for prepared pork products. Construction is scheduled to start in the third quarter of 2012, and the new facility for chilled and frozen pork is expected to begin operations in the second quarter of 2013.
 
As of June 30, 2012, Zhongpin had an annual capacity of 728,760 metric tons for chilled and frozen pork, 126,000 tons for prepared pork products, 20,000 tons for pork oil, and 30,000 tons for vegetables and fruits, for a combined total of 904,760 metric tons. With the additional annual capacity of 50,000 metric tons for prepared pork products that started trial production in July, Zhongpin's total annual capacity for all products was 954,760 tons as of 31 July 2012.

Zhongpin's outlook for hog prices and pork prices has decreased somewhat since the end of the first quarter 2012.

Although China's economy appears to be healthy and pork continues to be the preferred protein for most Chinese consumers, and the fundamental demand for pork should continue to be quite good, the vigorous competition for market share in the pork industry, as the industry consolidates, has helped to reduce pork prices in the second quarter 2012 more than the cost of hogs has decreased.
 
Zhongpin believes that hog prices may have reached the bottom of the current price decline, despite the current abundant supply of hogs. As the costs for breeding and feed are rising, the Chinese government has recently started to increase the nation's pork reserve, which in the past has generally had the effect of stabilizing hog prices somewhat above the cost to raise hogs.

Hog prices have declined about 15 per cent from the end of January 2012 to early August 2012. Given the expected bottom, we still estimate hog prices to decline on average by 15 per cent to 20 per cent in the year 2012 compared with 2011. The hog price declines in the second quarter 2012 are consistent with that estimation for the year 2012.
 
Pork prices tend to follow hog prices, since most pork producers, including Zhongpin, try to maintain a good spread between the price of hogs and the price of pork.
5  LIVESTOCKS / AGRI-NEWS / Re: The Meat Site: on: August 11, 2012, 09:33:46 AM

CME: Pork, Beef Prices Down Despite Drought
10 August 2012

 

US - While there is broad expectation among US market participants that the surge in grain prices will eventually push beef and pork prices higher, for the moment beef and pork prices at the wholesale level are below year ago levels, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.

The reality is that it will take time and plenty of pain along the supply chain to reconcile higher feed costs with what the consumer is willing to pay. On the pork side, it is important to recognize the importance of the export market and the outsize impact it has on the overall pricing structure. The share of US pork going to export markets has been increasing steadily, underpinning US hog prices and helping avoid the kind of structural changes needed to cope with $6, $7 and now $8 dollar corn prices. In 2007, just as corn prices were starting to ratchet higher, pork exports accounted for about 14% of US pork production.
 
By the third quarter of 2011, however, pork exports were 23% of overall US pork output, a dramatic increase that helped put the pork cutout over $105/cwt. (see chart).
 
In the first half of 2012, pork exports continued to be very strong, accounting for almost 25% of all US pork output. That does not necessarily mean stronger demand given that pork prices were soft, rather, that at the lower price levels exports were able to absorb more US product. Going forward, it will be critical for export demand to hold up, otherwise major reductions in hog production capacity will be needed.
 
The US pork cutout on Thursday was quoted at $92.8/cwt, $16.6/cwt or 15% lower than a year ago and also 8% lower than what it was at the end of June. Much of the argument for the lower year over year price decline centers around the softer outlook for US pork exports in the second half of the year and that is likely a driver. However, we would argue that softer domestic demand for pork this summer clearly is a major factor. Two items have been particularly problematic in recent weeks, loins and ribs. This past July was the hottest on record and apparently that negatively impacted the willingness of the US consumer to spend time barbecuing in the backyard. The loin primal cutout is currently running some 24% below year ago levels while the rib primal is down 26% from last year. On the other hand, the belly primal is down just 2% from a year ago while the ham primal is down 13%.

The choice beef cutout on August 9 was quoted at $1.8250/ cwt, $4.5/cwt or 3% higher than a year ago. Strong promotions of choice beef at retail helped the cutout hit annual highs in June but then prices slipped in July as hot weather took its toll. The expectation is for choice beef to track near or above 2011 prices into the fall as cattle and beef supplies continue to decline. There is plenty of talk about cattle herd liquidation but it is important to put that portion of the beef supply in context. Most of the cattle coming to market are feedlot animals. Feedlot cattle slaughter currently is running at a weekly pace of around 500-520k head per week compared to cow/bull slaughter of around 127—133k head per week. So even as cow slaughter is expected to increase to around 140- 150k per week into September and October, limited fed cattle kills will keep overall beef supplies in check, likely down about 5% for Q3 and –3.6% for Q4.
6  LIVESTOCKS / AGRI-NEWS / Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities on: August 11, 2012, 09:32:25 AM
USDA WASDE

Reports» USDA WASDE» USDA WASDE - August 2012

10 August 2012
USDA WASDE - August 2012



 

WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 54 million bushels with higher forecast production and an increase in projected imports. Production is forecast 44 million bushels higher with increased yields for winter wheat, durum, and other spring wheat. Feed and residual use is projected 20 million bushels higher, reflecting the tighter supply situation for corn. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 34 million bushels higher. The projected range for the 2012/13 seasonaverage farm price is raised substantially to $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel, compared with $6.20 to $7.40 per bushel last month, as tighter foreign wheat supplies and sharply higher corn prices raise price prospects for the remainder of the marketing year.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 2.1 million tons lower mostly reflecting a 3.7- million-ton reduction in foreign production. A small increase in 2012/13 world beginning stocks is partly offsetting with 2011/12 updates to trade and use for a number of countries. Lower expected production in the FSU-12 accounts for most of this month’s decline in world output. Production is lowered 6.0 million tons for Russia on reduced area and yield prospects due to July heat and dryness across most of the spring wheat growing areas. Spring wheat in adjoining areas of Kazakhstan was also affected by the same adverse weather reducing production prospects 2.0 million tons. Other reductions this month include a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Turkey based on lower reported yields, a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina reflecting lower expected area, a 0.3- million-ton reduction for Syria, and a 0.2-million-ton reduction for EU-27. Production is raised 2.9 million tons for India, 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, and 0.4 million tons each for Canada and Uzbekistan.

Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is raised 3.2 million tons as a number of countries are expected to shift some of their livestock and poultry feeding from corn to wheat. Wheat feeding is raised 1.0 million tons each for EU-27 and Ukraine, 0.5 million tons each for South Korea and Vietnam, 0.3 million tons for Israel, and 0.2 million tons each for India and Thailand. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Russia with lower expected production.

Global wheat imports for 2012/13 are raised with increases for several countries, in part, to support higher wheat feeding. Imports are raised 0.5 million tons each for EU-27, South Korea, and Vietnam, and raised 0.3 million tons for Israel. Imports are also raised 0.3 million tons for Brazil. Global 2012/13 exports are raised, but much of the shift among countries also reflects reduced export prospects for Russia, which is lowered 4.0 million tons. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, 1.0 million tons each for Canada and EU-27, 0.5 million tons each for Australia, Brazil, and Pakistan. Exports are lowered 0.7 million tons for Argentina, 0.5 million tons for Turkey, and 0.2 million tons for Uruguay. World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 5.3 million tons lower at 177.2 million.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected sharply lower again this month with corn production forecast 2.2 billion bushels lower and sorghum production forecast 92 million bushels lower. The forecast U.S. corn yield is reduced 22.6 bushels per acre to 123.4 bushels as extreme heat and dryness continued, and in many areas worsened, during July across the Plains and Corn Belt. As forecast, the 2012/13 corn yield would be the lowest since 1995/96. Corn area harvested for grain is also lowered, down 1.5 million acres from the last month’s forecast that was based on the June Acreage report. The U.S. sorghum yield is forecast 16.3 bushels per acre lower at 48.6 bushels as drought stressed sorghum from the Central Plains to the Corn Belt. Sorghum harvested area is also lowered slightly.

U.S. corn production for 2012/13 is forecast at 10.8 billion bushels, the lowest since 2006/07. Relatively small increases in carryin and imports only partly offset this month’s substantial reduction in crop size. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 118 million bushels higher with lower expected exports, reduced corn use for ethanol, and a small increase in imports. Imports for 2012/13 are also raised, up 45 million bushels to 75 million, reflecting strong domestic corn prices and competitively priced foreign supplies. Total U.S. corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected down 2.0 billion bushels and at a 9-year low.

This month’s large reduction in U.S. corn supplies and the sharply higher price outlook are expected to further reduce 2012/13 corn usage. Total use is projected 1.5 billion bushels lower and at 11.2 billion would be a 6-year low. The biggest reduction again this month is for feed and residual disappearance, projected down 725 million bushels. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is also projected lower, down 470 million bushels, mostly reflecting a 400-million-bushel reduction in corn used to produce ethanol. Reductions in other food and industrial uses account for the remainder of the FSI decline. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 650 million bushels, 533 million lower and the smallest carryout since 1995/96. The 2012/13 season-average farm price for corn is projected at a record $7.50 to $8.90 per bushel, up sharply from the $5.40 to $6.40 per bushel projected in July. Projected farm prices for the other feed grains are also raised.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are reduced 56.5 million tons mostly reflecting the forecast 55.7-million-ton reduction in the U.S. corn crop. Larger 2012/13 corn beginning stocks in the United States and Brazil partly offset lower U.S. and foreign coarse grain production. Brazil corn beginning stocks are raised 2.8 million tons based on higher reported production for 2011/12.

Foreign corn production for 2012/13 is mostly unchanged with increases for China, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa mostly offset by reductions for EU-27, Ukraine, India, Serbia, Russia, Croatia, Moldova, and Canada. Foreign sorghum production is lowered 0.3 million tons with a reduction for India. Reductions in barley production in FSU-12, EU-27, and Turkey lower global barley production 1.1 million tons. A 2.5-million-ton reduction in India millet output also lowers world coarse grain supplies.

Global 2012/13 corn trade is projected sharply lower this month in response to tighter U.S. supplies and higher prices. Corn imports are lowered for China, EU-27, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Vietnam, Israel, Colombia, Peru, and Syria. In addition to the United States, corn exports are reduced for Ukraine, EU-27, and Serbia. Partly offsetting are export increases for Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and Canada. Global corn consumption is projected 38.9 million tons lower with the United States accounting for more than three-fourths of the reduction. Foreign corn feeding drops 8.8 million tons with only part of the decline offset by higher wheat feeding. Corn feeding is lowered for EU-27, India, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Ukraine, Vietnam, Israel, and Indonesia. Global corn ending stocks are projected 10.8 million tons lower with increases for China, Brazil, and Argentina only partly making up for the large reduction in the United States and smaller reductions in a number of other countries.

RICE: U.S. total rice supplies for 2012/13 are projected at 244.4 million cwt, down 2.5 million from last month. Projected beginning stocks, imports, and production are each lowered from a month ago. USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2012/13 U.S. rice crop is 190.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million from last month's projection, but up nearly 3 percent from the previous year. Average all rice yield is forecast at 7,196 pounds per acre, down 39 pounds per acre from last month’s projection, but up nearly 2 percent from last year. Long-grain production is forecast at 132.1 million cwt, down 1 percent from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 57.9 million, up less than 1 percent from a month ago. The all rice import projection is lowered 0.5 million cwt to 21.0 million due in part to an expected slower pace of long-grain imports from South and Southeast Asia, a continuation of the trend observed in 2011/12. All rice beginning stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 33.5 million because of an increase in the 2011/12 export estimate to 102.0 million.

U.S. total rice use for 2012/13 is projected at 216.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from last month. All rice domestic and residual use is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 124.0 million, all in longgrain. The all rice export projection is unchanged at 92.0 million cwt, however, the rough rice component is raised 1.0 million and offset by a 1.0 million reduction in combined milled- and brownexports (rough-equivalent basis). The long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain export projections are unchanged at 60.0 million cwt and 32.0 million, respectively. U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 28.4 million cwt, down 0.5 million from last month, and 15 percent below the previous year.

The 2012/13 long-grain U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. The 2012/13 all rice price is projected at $14.10 to $15.10 per cwt, up 30 cents per cwt on each end of the range. A smaller crop and tighter supplies, particularly for long-grain rice, are expected to support prices. The all rice stocks-to-use ratio at 13.2 percent in 2012/13 is the lowest since 2007/08, and the long-grain rice stocks-to-use ratio at 10.6 percent is the lowest since 2003/04.

Lower projected global 2012/13 total supply more than offsets a slight decrease in total use resulting in an expected decrease in ending stocks. Global production is lowered 1.9 million tons to 463.2 million, due primarily to forecast reductions for India, Brazil, and North Korea, which are partially offset by increases for China and South Korea. Beginning stocks are increased 0.8 million tons due to a 1.0-million-ton increase for India, which is partially offset by reductions for Brazil and Indonesia. World consumption is reduced 0.4 million tons. A 1.0-million-ton increase in China offsets an identical reduction for India. Consumption forecasts are also lowered for Brazil, North Korea, and the United States, partially offset by an increase for Indonesia. Global trade is changed little from a month ago. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 101.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, and a decrease of 3.2 million from the previous year. The largest stocks reductions for 2012/13 are for Brazil and Indonesia, each just over 0.3 million tons.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 83.4 million tons, down 9.4 million from last month, as a lower soybean production estimate is only partly offset by higher crops of peanuts and cottonseed. Soybean production for 2012/13 is projected at 2.7 billion bushels, down 358 million due to lower harvested area and yields. Harvested area is projected at 74.6 million acres, down 0.7 million from the July projection. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 36.1 bushels per acre is 4.4 bushels below last month’s projection and 5.4 bushels below last year’s yield. Soybean supplies for 2012/13 are projected 12 percent below last month to a 9-year low on lower production and reduced beginning stocks. Soybean exports are reduced 260 million bushels to 1.11 billion bushels. Soybean crush is also reduced as higher prices reduce domestic use and prospective exports for both soybean meal and oil. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 115 million bushels, down 15 million.

U.S. changes for 2011/12 include increased soybean crush and exports and reduced ending stocks. Crush is increased 15 million bushels to 1.69 billion reflecting increased exports and domestic use of soybean meal. Soybean exports are increased 10 million to 1.35 billion bushels reflecting strong shipments in recent weeks. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 145 million bushels, down 25 million.

Soybean and product prices for 2012/13 are all raised to record levels this month, reflecting the impact of sharply reduced soybean and corn production. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $15.00 to $17.00 per bushel, up $2.00 on both ends. Soybean meal prices are projected at $460 to $490 per short ton compared with $365 to $395 last month. Soybean oil prices are projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 457.3 million tons, down 8.5 million tons from last month. Reductions for soybeans, sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed are only partly offset by increased rapeseed production. Lower soybean production is projected for the United States, Canada, and EU-27 due to lower yields resulting from hot, dry weather. Soybean production is raised for Brazil and Paraguay as producers are expected to respond to sharply higher prices with increased plantings. Brazil’s soybean production is projected up 3 million tons at a record 81 million. Sunflowerseed production is reduced for EU-27, Ukraine, and Moldova due to the effects of hot, dry weather during the reproductive stage of the crops. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for EU-27 and Ukraine, lower rapeseed production for China and Australia, lower peanut production for India and Indonesia, and lower cottonseed production for India.

Global oilseed and meal production, trade, and consumption for 2012/13 are all reduced this month reflecting the impact of reduced oilseed supplies and higher prices. Projected soybean imports for China are reduced 1.5 million tons to 59.5 million as domestic soybean stocks contribute a larger component of soybean meal consumption. Soybean exports for Brazil and Argentina are forecast higher but only partly offset a reduction for the United States.

SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is decreased 251,000 short tons, raw value, compared with last month. Carry-in stocks are reduced mainly due to data revisions in Sweetener Market Data, which lower 2011/12 ending stocks. Imports from Mexico are decreased due to higher sugar consumption and carryout stocks in Mexico. Total use is unchanged.

COTTON: The U.S. 2012/13 cotton supply and demand estimates include larger production and ending stocks compared with last month. Production is raised 651,000 bales to 17.7 million, up nearly 4 percent, based on USDA’s first crop survey. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports remain forecast at 12.1 million bales, despite the larger supply, due to reduced import demand by China. Ending stocks are now forecast at 5.5 million bales, equal to 35 percent of total use. The range for the marketing year average price received by producers is narrowed 1 cent on each end to 61 to 79 cents per pound.

This month’s world 2012/13 cotton estimates also show larger supplies and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised nearly 2.0 million bales in China as a result of adjustments to 2011/12 which both increase imports and reduce consumption. The higher China stocks are partially offset by lower beginning stocks in Australia, Malaysia, Pakistan, and others, resulting in a net global increase of 1.1 million bales. World production is raised 300,000 bales, as increases for the United States, China, Burkina Faso, and Mali are partially offset by lower production for India, Brazil, Argentina, and others. World consumption is reduced 820,000 bales, due mainly to reductions for China and Pakistan. World trade is reduced slightly, as lower imports by China are partially offset by small increases for several countries. World stocks are raised to 74.7 million bales, including an increase of nearly 2.4 million bales in stocks held by China; lesser increases for the United States, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan are about offset by decreases for India, Australia, and Brazil. Projected China stocks of 34.2 million bales account for 46 percent of the world stocks forecast, and assume a net increase in China’s national cotton reserve of about 20 percent during 2012/13.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2012 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month but the forecast for 2013 is reduced as higher feed prices are expected to pressure producer returns. Beef production is raised from last month for both 2012 and 2013 due to higher expected placements in feedlots and increased dairy cow slaughter in late 2012 and during 2013. Carcass weights are forecast higher based on recent weight trends, but higher feed prices are expected to temper the increase and carcass weights are expected to be lower in 2013 compared to 2012. Pork production is reduced from last month for both 2012 and 2013. The reduction for 2012 reflects lower slaughter in the third quarter and lighter expected carcass weights through the year. As a result of high feed prices and recent hot weather, forecast pig crops are lowered in the second half of 2012 with declines continuing into 2013. Pork production is forecast lower in 2013 due to a combination of smaller hog supplies and lower expected carcass weights. Broiler production is raised in 2012 as production in the second quarter was higher than forecast last month and hatchery data points to higher than previously forecast levels of production in the third quarter. However, high feed costs are expected to result in lower broiler production in 2013. Turkey production is forecast lower in 2012 on lower second-quarter production. The production forecast for 2013 is reduced as feed prices squeeze producer returns. The egg production forecast is lowered for both 2012 and 2013.

Beef imports are reduced for 2012 based in part on weaker second-quarter data but are unchanged for 2013. Beef exports are reduced for both 2012 and 2013 as exports have slowed and tight supplies of pork and poultry are expected to support domestic beef demand. Pork and poultry exports are reduced for both 2012 and 2013.

Cattle prices are reduced from last month with the expectation of larger fed cattle marketings in both 2012 and 2013. However, prices are likely to remain strong in 2013 as total meat supplies are tight. Hog prices are raised in both years due to smaller hog supplies. Broiler prices are reduced in 2012 due to larger expected supplies and somewhat weaker demand, but for 2013, tighter supplies are expected to help support higher prices. Turkey and egg price forecasts are raised on lower production.

Milk production forecasts for 2012 and 2013 are reduced from last month as higher forecast feed prices are expected to pressure producer returns and encourage a more rapid decline in the cow herd. Milk per cow is also reduced due to tighter feed supplies. Imports for 2012 are raised on both a fat and skim-solids basis and are raised on a fat basis for 2013. Exports are raised for 2012 but exports for 2013 are reduced from last month on tighter supplies. Ending stocks are reduced. Product prices are forecast higher for 2012 and 2013 as tighter supplies support prices. With higher product prices, both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised. The all milk price is forecast at $17.55 to $17.75 per cwt for 2012 and $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt for 2013.
7  LIVESTOCKS / AGRI-NEWS / Re: WorldWatch: on: August 11, 2012, 09:31:15 AM
USDA Agricultural Prices

Reports» USDA Agricultural Prices» USDA Agricultural Prices - 31 July 2012

02 August 2012
USDA Agricultural Prices - 31 July 2012
The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in July, at 193 percent, based on 1990-1992=100, increased 11 points (6.0 percent) from June. The Crop Index is up 20 points (9.4 percent) but the Livestock Index decreased 1 point (0.7 percent).



July Farm Prices Received Index Advanced 11 Points

Producers received higher prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, and hogs and lower prices for cattle, grapes, broilers, and broccoli. In addition to prices, the overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased monthly movement of wheat, grapes, grain sorghum, and hay offset the decreased marketing of milk, potatoes, cantaloupes, and corn.
 
The preliminary All Farm Products Index is up 10 points (5.5 percent) from July 2011. The Food Commodities Index, at 178, increased 7 points (4.1 percent) from last month and increased 3 points (1.7 percent) from July 2011.
 
Prices Paid Index Up 1 Point
 
The July Index of Prices Paid for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW) is 215 percent of the 1990-1992 average. The index is up 1 point (0.5 percent) from June and 11 points (5.4 percent) above July 2011. Higher prices in July for feed grains, concentrates, nitrogen, and LP gas offset lower prices for feeder cattle, feeder pigs, diesel, and potash & phosphate.


 

Prices Received by Farmers
 
The July All Farm Products Index is 193 percent of its 1990-1992 base, up 6.0 percent from the June index and 5.5 percent above the July 2011 index.
 
All crops: The July index, at 233, increased 9.4 percent from June and is 10 percent above July 2011. Index increases for feed grains & hay, food grains, and oilseeds more than offset the index decreases for fruits & nuts, commercial vegetables, and potatoes & dry beans.
 
Food grains: The July index, at 275, is 23 percent above the previous month and 17 percent above a year ago. The July price for all wheat, at $8.31 per bushel, is up $1.61 from June and $1.21 above July 2011.
 
Feed grains & hay: The July index, at 302, is up 12 percent from last month and 15 percent above a year ago. The corn price, at $7.36 per bushel, is up 99 cents from last month and is $1.03 above July 2011. The all hay price, at $184 per ton, is up $1.00 from June and up $14.00 from last July. Sorghum grain, at $12.00 per cwt, is $2.44 above June and up $1.60 from July last year.
 
Cotton, Upland: The July index, at 126, is down 1.6 percent from June and 7.4 percent below last year. The July price, at 76.6 cents per pound, is down 0.7 cent from the previous month and 5.9 cents below last July.
 
Oilseeds: The July index, at 278, is up 12 percent from June and 17 percent higher than July 2011. The soybean price, at $15.60 per bushel, increased $1.70 from June and is $2.40 above July 2011.
 
Fruits & nuts: The July index, at 156, is down 14 percent from June and 16 percent lower than a year ago. The price decreases for peaches and oranges more than offset the price increases for pears and apples.
 
Commercial vegetables: The July index, at 150, is down 6.2 percent from last month and 8.0 percent below July 2011. Price declines for tomatoes, broccoli, and lettuce more than offset price increases during July for snap beans, onions, and celery.
 
Potatoes & dry beans: The July index, at 179, is down 0.6 percent from last month and 23 percent below July 2011. The all potato price, at $9.76 per cwt, is down 17 cents from June and $4.43 lower than last July. The all dry bean price, at $43.80 per cwt, is down 40 cents from the previous month but $9.60 higher than July 2011.
 
Livestock and products: The July index, at 151, is 0.7 percent below last month and down 2.6 percent from July 2011. Compared with a year ago, prices are higher for cattle, broilers, eggs, hogs, turkeys, and calves. The price for milk is lower than last year.
 
Meat animals: The July index, at 158, is down 2.5 percent from last month but 3.9 percent higher than last year. The July hog price, at $73.80 per cwt, is up $3.60 from June and $2.10 higher than a year ago. The July beef cattle price of $116 per cwt is down $5.00 from last month but $5.00 higher than July 2011.
 
Dairy products: The July index, at 127, is up 2.4 percent from a month ago but 24 percent lower than July last year. The July all milk price of $16.60 per cwt is up 40 cents from last month but down $5.20 from July 2011.
 
Poultry & eggs: The July index, at 159, is down 1.9 percent from June but 6.0 percent above a year ago. The July market egg price, at 76.3 cents per dozen, increased 7.5 cents from June and is 7.9 cents above July 2011. The July broiler price, at 49.0 cents per pound, is down 2.0 cents from June but 2.0 cents above a year ago. The July turkey price, at 72.4 cents per pound, is down 1.5 cents from the previous month but up 4.9 cents from a year earlier.


 
8  LIVESTOCKS / AGRI-NEWS / Re: Canadian Pork Producers: on: August 11, 2012, 09:29:58 AM

Pork Commentary: US Drought Continues, Feed Price at Record High
08 August 2012


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.

CANADA - The US drought continues unabated, while grain and subsequent feed prices continue to touch record highs. It is miserable. The whole grain – feed scenario is playing havoc in the global meat protein sector. It’s a market that has the direction and pattern of a headless chicken, writes Jim Long.

Our Observations

Sow liquidation has started there is no doubt. Sows are being aborted and shipped. A.I. orders are being stopped as breeding has ended. Gilt orders are cancelled. The herd will be shrinking at a rate the last few weeks of 10,000 per week minimum.

 We will get criticism for saying there’s liquidation. Some will say it might encourage some to keep going the old ‘Last Man Standing’ economic position. We say it doesn’t matter what we write, the industry comprises scores of individuals with their own circumstances. They each will have their own scenario, some in control of their destiny and others controlled by the banks.

 Our opinion is few producers have much feed purchased ahead or price protected. Many got advice from the wizards who told them not to buy grain. Don’t take a position record crop is coming. It kind of made sense except it didn’t work. Now we have a swine sector, cattle industry, and poultry industry being bludgeoned by negative margins. We expect the US meat protein production sector will be losing $300 million plus per week by September. This market turnaround will lead to an unprecedented decrease in meat protein production by the second quarter next year as poultry, pork, and beef supplies crater.
 
The only hope for not having the meat sector from shrinking rapidly is the corn ethanol mandate which would up corn were altered which would up corn availability and lower its price!
 
The corn ethanol lobby doesn’t want mandates to be adjusted. They say it won’t lower the corn price. We say if corn prices won’t drop Mr Big Corn Ethanol Lobbyist why are you scared of the mandate being adjusted?
 
Misery loves company

 Brazil live hogs in the low 40 cent per pound US live weight. Train wreck.

In China the chicken industry having big bloodletting – China $12.00 per bushel corn has its consequences.
 
Great Britain expect the sow herd to decrease 10 per cent by Christmas (10 per cent in USA. – Canada would be 700,000 sows).
 
As we write we are on a plane to Germany. In the next three weeks we will be in Eastern Europe, Russia, China, and Japan. We will report our observations.
 
More than ever as an industry our destiny is linked by Global circumstances, and local matters but only so much. Our sense is America’s drought is affecting the whole world, not only North American meat supply will decline but so will the worlds. What we are living is a catastrophic drought event that will have implications for years on how we all do business. It will never be the same.
 
The flip side of the implosion is there is little doubt in our mind hog prices next summer will be the highest in history. We had $1.00 hogs this year, how will there not be less hogs next summer?
 
9  LIVESTOCKS / AGRI-NEWS / Re: World Hog news: on: August 11, 2012, 09:28:03 AM

African Swine Fever Threatens All Europe
08 August 2012


ANALYSIS - The spread of African Swine Fever from the Caucasus to the east coast of the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine presents an alarming and concerning situation, writes Chris Harris.
 
The latest outbreak, discovered at the end of July and confirmed through PCR tests on samples taken from back yard pigs in the Zaporozhye region, is worrying because it represents not so much a gradual spread of the disease, but a dramatic jump.
 
The outbreak has occurred 170 kilometres from the Russian border. Until now the disease has been found mainly in the Tver, Ivanovo and Rostov regions to the north of Moscow, Bryansk and Smolensk to the west of Moscow and the Volgograd and Krasnodar regions to the south as well as outbreaks in Georgia.
 
The furthest the disease had been found outside these regions where it has largely been confined to back yard farms and wild boar populations - although larger pig farms have been infected and have suffered severe losses - has been in the St Petersburg area where the incidence was traced to illegally dumped pig carcases.
 
The leap across the border is likely to mean that similar illegal transportation of pigs or pig meat products has taken place or that transport has travelled from infected regions without proper biosecurity measures being carried out.
 
The most concerning aspect of the latest outbreak in Ukraine, where three pigs on a back yard farm dies for the disease and two others were destroyed is that the disease has now spread to another mainland Eastern European country.
 
The veterinary authorities in Russia have freely admitted that the disease is out of control in the country. Virtually every inspection made on farms in areas that are supposed to have tight biosecurity and sanitary measures in force has found breaches of the regulation.
 
Prosecutions are common and even officials within the official veterinary agency Rosselkhoznador at local level have been found wanting in their enforcement of control measures.
 
Earlier this year the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations' Chief Veterinary Officer Juan Lubroth warned: "African swine fever is fast becoming a global issue.
 
"It now poses an immediate threat to Europe and beyond. Countries need to be on the alert and to strengthen their preparedness and contingency plans."

Measures recommended for countries by FAO include risk analyses to evaluate the situation and assess potential consequences. These analyses should pave the way for fully-fledged contingency plans and provide the rationale for selecting disease-control strategies.

Over the last year Denmark, Spain, the Czech Republic, Belarus and Croatia have all held simulation exercises to plan out what action to take in the event of an outbreak.
 
And the concern over the present incidence in Ukraine has placed other EU countries on alert.
 
The German Agriculture Ministry this week warned: "This epidemic in the Russian Federation and other neighbouring states has been rife for a long time and there is a risk that it might be introduced into the European Union. Already a number of measures at national and EU level have been taken to prevent this.
 
"At the external borders of the EU increased checks are being carried out and contingency plans to combat animal diseases have been adjusted."
 
Measures that have been taken include the ban on the import of live pigs and pork products from affected countries into the EU.
 
However the German Agriculture Ministry has warned that the pathogen can be carried on food such as pork, raw sausages and salami if they are brought in from regions that are at risk and the disease can be passed on in food waste and through the wild boar population.
 
The Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection warns "Bring no such food from areas affected with the African swine fever."
 
Following the Ukraine outbreak a report from Dr Helen Roberts for the UK's Department of Agriculture Food and Rural Affairs also warns that its cause is likely to be the movement of pigs, pig products or vehicles.
 
"The source of disease is not known but if genetic sequencing is carried out and shows the close relationship with the strains in the Caucasus, that will indicate movement of products in all likelihood either by road or by sea into this area. This latest jump is not entirely surprising, but does raise the issue of controlling imports of animal products and instigating swill feeding bans in backyard premises," Dr Roberts reports.
 
She adds: "We consider that the risk of introduction by legal trade in susceptible livestock or products is negligible as EU rules prohibit imports of such trade from Ukraine. It is therefore important to uphold the ban on swill feeding, to ensure adequate cleansing and disinfection of vehicles returning from infected regions and safe disposal of catering waste.
 
"Importing meat or meat products (including ham, salami, sausages and other delicacies) from Ukraine as personal imports is illegal and it is important that this control measure is observed.
 
"As we have previously stated, countries and regions where certain risk factors, such as a high proportion of backyard pig farms, wild boar contact, suitable vector (Argasid tick) populations or practicing swill feeding are at greater risk than those EU MSs with mainly high biosecurity commercial pig farms (such as the UK). Nevertheless, the persistence and geographic spread of ASF makes it a threat to the whole of the EU and it is imperative that control measures are applied effectively and regular exchange of information and expertise is maintained."






Chris Harris, Editor-in-Chief
10  LIVESTOCKS / Small ruminant (sheep and goat) / Re: News in brief: on: August 11, 2012, 09:26:27 AM
From what I have been told lately,expect higher livestock feed prices coming.Appears the American corn export forecast will be lower than expected and with world demand for corn as livestock feed,higher prices to follow along with general food prices also.Not good news for livestock producers who rely on commercial off the self concentrates like ourselves.Those who are in a position to form their own pellets,good for you and maybe the right timing.One of the problems with higher feed prices is that people will sell off their goats in order to save money,not good news for a entry level livestock venture like goats.
11  LIVESTOCKS / Small ruminant (sheep and goat) / Re: PL 480 news update on: August 03, 2012, 11:28:59 PM
One of my American contacts has just emailed me to say  that more interest from the Philippine side is looking for more American dairy goats.One order is for 500 heads and someone is looking for 1000 heads of Saanens.For those who might have been left out of the last imports,maybe this time you might be lucky enough to get something of real value.Lets see what the future holds.
12  LIVESTOCKS / Small ruminant (sheep and goat) / Re: News in brief: on: August 03, 2012, 10:56:52 AM
Meet the Money Makers

 Meat goats are one of the hottest livestock properties today. Learn what the future holds for this market!
 
By Sue Weaver
 


If you'd like to turn a profit raising livestock, consider meat goats.

Established goat entrepreneurs are struggling to provide America's goat meat buyers with a ready supply of tasty, wholesome product.

It's a wide-open market and many more producers are needed.
 
Sixty-three to 65 percent of the red meat consumed globally is goat meat.

Ethnic Groups Love Goat
Americans of Hispanic, Caribbean, Mediterranean, Eastern European, African, Middle Eastern and Southeastern Asian origin are clamoring for goat meat, as are a burgeoning number of health-conscious buyers who favor goat meat's lean, high-protein goodness.

However, American producers are so unable to meet those demands that a staggering amount of chevon (goat meat) is imported each year.

A case in point: Of the 16,097 metric tons of chevon exported from Australia in 2003 and 2004, 48.6 percent came to the United States and another 6 percent went to Canada. That's a lot of goat meat!
 








Courtesy Sara's Boer Goats Ranch

Meat Goat Info

MAC Goats
Drop by the MAC Goats website to access scores of meat goat industry resources and to meet the gorgeous MAC goats!

 
American Meat Goat Association/AMGA
Access informative articles, a comprehensive breeders directory, and links to the equipment and resources you'll need to break into the meat goat business at the American Meat Goat Association Website.

Boer and Meat Goat Information Center
Hundreds of articles, USDA livestock reports, show results, shipping regulations and producers directories: find 'em at the Boer and Meat Goat Information Center Web site.

International Kiko Goat Association/IKGA
Prospective meat goat entrepreneurs, no matter their favorite breed, will benefit from the IKGA's 15-page PDF bulletin, "Hints For the Inexperienced Goat Farmer." Click on “Publications” to download.

Goat Rancher - The Magazine of America's Commercial Meat Goat Industry
Goat Rancher reports the latest news about the production, health, management and marketing of meat goats. Click on “Markets” at the Goat Rancher Web site to check up-to-date prices at dozens of goat auctions throughout the United States.

TOP
 
Consider this: Cabrito, the tender flesh of 10- to 12-pound, milk-fed kids, is a delicacy among Hispanic consumers. America's Hispanic community is more than 35 million strong; by 2025, Hispanics will make up 18 percent of our population. If current growth patterns continue, by 2050, one out of every four Americans will be Hispanic; yet already Hispanic demands for quality cabrito and chevon drastically exceed supply.

According to census figures, 16.8 percent of Florida's population is Hispanic, yet 85 percent of dressed goat meat marketed in Florida is imported!
 
Muslim families also prefer goat meat. Chevon is the mainstay of religious feasts held prior to Ramadan, at ‘Id al-Fitr and at Id al-Adha, as well as at weddings and other family celebrations throughout the year. When it's available, it's enjoyed as everyday fare.
 
Americans of Caribbean descent prefer meat from mature goats for use in jerked dishes and curries; Jewish consumers buy milk-fed kids for Passover and Hanukkah; Asian buyers favor meat from older kids. The market is out there, but there are many more reasons to look into goats.

Getting Started with Goats

Feed
Goats are browsers, not grazers. Goats flourish on land that would starve a horse or a cow. They drool for blackberry canes, multiflora rose, kudzu, poison ivy and leafy spurge, and they rhapsodize over saplings, suckers and brush.

In an Australian study, the stomachs of free-ranging goats were found to contain approximately 72 percent browse and only 28 percent grass; goats pastured with grazing species (horses, cattle and sheep) don't compete for choice grasses and open brushy areas for their pasturemates to dine on.

For hundreds of years, farmers and ranchers have employed goats to clear rough land. You can, too.

Compared to most livestock ventures, entry-level commercial goat enterprise costs are modest indeed.

Breeds
Moderately-priced does of mixed meat breed ancestry are readily available. Breeds include:
 •Boer
•Kiko
•Tennessee Meat Goat
•Genemaster
•Texmaster
•Savanna
•Spanish

Purebred or high-percentage meat breed bucks cost about the same as a registered bull.
 
Besides preferring browse to prime grass, six to eight goats flourish on the hay and concentrates needed to nourish a single cow or horse.

Housing
Goat housing is the essence of simplicity: keep goats dry and out of drafts, and they thrive.

Existing farm fences can usually be goat-proofed with additional strands of barbed or electric wire. Goats are intelligent, friendly and just plain fun to have around. A passel of kids with access to climbing toys is good for more laughs than comedy TV!

Marketing Meat Goats
And there is more than one way to market meat goats.
•Successful goat entrepreneurs produce organic chevon for restaurants and other discriminating, health-conscious consumers;
•They sell commercial slaughter goats individually or as part of a chevon marketing co-op through their local sale barns or to goat brokers or meat processors, or
•They direct market live goats to ethnic buyers from their own back doors.






Meaty Myotonics
Myotonic goats (also called Fainting, Wooden Leg, Stiff, Nervous and Scare goats) are American as apple pie.

Read ALL about Myotonics!

The breed's origin traces back to the 1880s when a transient farm worker, John Tinsley, came to central Tennessee in the company of several strange goats. When startled, they stiffened and often toppled over onto their sides or backs.

Folks liked these animals. They were meatier than most goats and their peculiar condition kept them from scaling enclosures in the manner of everyday goats. When Tinsley moved on, his “fainting” goats stayed behind to found a dynasty of their own.

In the 1950s, a passel of Tennessee Fainting Goats was exported to the Texas hill country where they evolved as the Texas Wooden Leg goat.

The 1980s proved a parting of the ways for the two. One group of fanciers began selecting for meat qualities such as greater size, growth rate and reproductive efficiency; another for pronounced myotonia and reduced size.

Because of this divergence, today's myotonic goats range in weight from about 60 to 200 pounds.

The latter are Tennessee Meat Goats, a trademarked breed of large, muscular myotonics pioneered by goat author Suzanne W. Gasparotto of Onion Creek Ranch in Lohn, Texas. By crossing and re-crossing her Tennessee Meat Goats on Boer and percentage Boer does, she developed a second trademarked breed, the TexMaster.

TOP
 
For those who choose not to raise goats for slaughter, a strong demand exists for quality meat-breed show and breeding stock.
 •Some producers specialize in show wethers (the meat goat division is the fastest growing segment of many states' 4-H programs);
•Others show purebred bucks and percentage does (a commercial doe for commercial herd improvement; and
•A select number in top-of-the-crop show and purebred breeding stock--among them Matt Gurn and his wife, Claudia Marcus-Gurn, of MAC Goats.

MAC Goats
Two years ago, when Claudia retired from her position as Accounting Supervisor at California's famous Folsom Prison, the Gurns packed their worldly belongings, their Boer goats, and their livestock guardian dogs and their household pets (including Cash, the Folsom Prison cat), and set off cross-country for a new life in the Missouri Ozarks.

When asked why they chose this region, Claudia laughs. "Cheap land," she says.

"And I grew up in the woods, so I wanted to live back on the deer trails again. We chose this place," she adds, gesturing out the window at their beautiful river-bottom farm, "for a special reason. Matt and I are Christians and our faith is important to us. We'd looked at other properties but they didn't suit us for one reason or another. Then we found this place. We liked it, but when I saw the aerial map of this property, I knew we'd been given a sign. From above, this property is shaped like a fish!"

Nestled in the wilderness of a lush, green valley under towering Ozark cliffs, MAC Goats is surrounded by the Mark Twain National Forest.
 
The nearby Eleven Point River, one of Missouri's Ozark National Scenic Riverways, draws hundreds of thousands of tourists to the area each year. Their home was built in 1894, and though they've added on and renovated, the Gurns strive to preserve its original character. Its small, neat rooms are furnished with antiques and Claudia's own artwork; awards from prestigious Boer goat shows are frosting on the cake.

"We weren't the first Boer breeders in North America," Claudia explains, "but we were one of the first in California. We already had Nubians, but when Boers came along, they simply swept us off our feet. We were blessed when we bought our foundation stock. We've always had outstanding bucks. Our first was Chieftain. He came from South Africa to Canada as an embryo. We showed Chieftain twice, winning two Grand Champions and two Best of Shows, along with 55 points toward his Ennoblement--that's the highest honor a Boer goat can earn. Chieftain was the sweetest guy and he sired the nicest babies. He really got us off on the right foot.

"Chieftain sired Chief Forty-Five--we call him Chiefee--and Chiefee is still with us. He and his get helped us win the California Premier Breeder Award in 2001 and he's collected 70 Ennoblement points. He's the best, a real character; Chiefee is a gift from God. He's my pal and loves to rest his chin on my shoulder. Once he won an award for most popular goat at a show, based on spectator applause. He and Chieftain sired so many of our does that we don't use Chiefee much nowadays, but he'll always be a part of life at MAC Goats."

Success with Meat Goats
When asked how readers might emulate their success, Matt replies, "They need to learn everything they can before they buy. They should learn:
 •How to manage goats
•Which vaccinations to give and how to give them
•How to tell when a goat is sick
•They need to understand how to feed them
•And start small. That way they can continue learning as they expand."

"Join e-mail lists," Claudia adds. "I subscribe to 23 goat lists myself. Ask questions--goat people are so good about helping one another. If you want to sell breeding stock, you need to use popular bloodlines and expect to show. It's costly, but wins prove you're breeding good goats. And advertise! Produce a quality product and let people know that you are. Put up a Web site that encourages people to come back again and again. Our educational Web site draws hundreds of hits a day,” she continues. "People come to research a subject, then they see our MAC goats and often want to buy!”

What to Know About Slaughter Goats
If readers raise slaughter goats, do they need high-priced, pedigreed stock?

"Not at all," Matt says. "No matter what you do, you need a good buck because he has an impact on every kid you raise. A really good buck may seem expensive, but when his kids sell for more money or are marketable sooner, that quickly brings down his initial cost. You want to buy from breeders who participate in performance testing or who track weight gains. We weigh our kids at birth and again when we wean them at three months. We post the results to our Web site. Recording weight gains shows breeders--and buyers--which bucks are siring quick-maturing kids. With an average buck you might market 5-month-old kids weighing 50 pounds. At the same age, kids by a better buck might weigh 60 pounds. You can market those kids sooner, and the sooner to market, the less you'll feed them. Some of our kids weigh 90 pounds at three months! Over time these savings add up.

"Commercial producers don't need registered stock. Most will use a good meat breed buck on mixed-breed does. What's important in a commercial program is producing fast-growing, meaty kids tailored to supply a given market. To show a healthy profit, you've got to take care of your commercial breeding stock and keep it healthy, but not spend a lot of money doing it.

"And no matter what kind of goats you raise, registered or commercial, you need good does. They should have good udders, produce enough milk and want to take care of their kids. Does that produce twins work best for us since we don't like to spend a lot of time bottle feeding, but a commercial producer might want triplets or quadruplets. Bottle-raised, the extra kids mean more meat to take to market."

Looking Ahead
And what lies ahead for MAC Goats?

"Only the Lord knows for sure," says Claudia, "but we plan to keep raising Boer goats. We'll continue showing, too. Boer goats we've bred have won 101 Grand and Reserve Championships. In three months of showing, Hoss, our present herdsire, earned 105 points toward his Ennoblement and he's passed visual inspection, so we'll be showing some of his sons and daughters to finish his points. We consigned 30 of our best young goats to the Diamond Classic Sale coming and ended up with the two top-selling bucks for $2,200 a piece and the top-selling doe for $4,200. The doe, a 7-month-old Hoss daughter, had been shown four times, always at large breed shows, and had won her class every time, along with an Overall Grand Championship, a Junior Championship and a Reserve Championship. We sold her so someone else can start their herd or expand their show string with the kind of high-quality goats we were blessed with when we began. To us, that's what this business is about."
 
From show stock to meat market, the meat goat business is booming. Are there meat goats in your future?
13  LIVESTOCKS / Small ruminant (sheep and goat) / Re: News in brief: on: August 03, 2012, 10:41:09 AM
Free-Range Goats Promise 12% Private-Equity Gains in Australia

By Rudy Ruitenberg


July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Free-range goat farming in rural Australia is a low-cost investment that may offer annual returns of as much as 12 percent, said Peter Hannen, chairman of private-equity firm MG Capital Plc.

MG Capital has invested about $12 million to buy 600,000 acres of land in Australia’s outback populated with 50,000 feral goats, Hannen said yesterday in an interview at the World Agri Invest Congress in London.

“Is it an industry or is it a hobby?” said Hannen, a former sugar trader and ex-chairman of Celtic Resources Holdings Ltd., the gold producer acquired by OAO Severstal in January 2008. “We’re not losing money. That’s a good start.”

Australia exported 27,000 metric tons of goat meat last year, and the U.S. is the world’s largest buyer, according to Hannen. London-based MG Capital expects to produce about 50,000 goats a year from its herd, the executive said.

The goats are harvested by fencing off watering holes that are accessible via “tiger traps” which can be shut to trap the animals, Hannen said. Land can be bought for A$10 ($7.96) an acre, and the project’s biggest investments are in fencing and water supply, he said.

“Goats being goats, basically you have a low-cost enterprise in an arid land, and the world is becoming more arid,” Hannen told the conference. “You have to keep probing at the frontiers.”

‘Startup Market’

MG Capital expects cash returns “over time” of 8 percent to 12 percent from goat farming in the outback, “in line with general farming,” Hannen said in the interview. The firm first invested in Australian goat farming three years ago, he said.

“This is a startup market,” he said. “It’ll be five years before we know if there’ll be a goat industry.”

The firm also has invested between $5 million and $6 million in farming of merino sheep in Uruguay for wool, which generated annual post-tax returns of 14 percent in the five years , according to Hannen.

“My most profitable operations in South America have been my sheep operations, and my most profitable land there has been that with the lowest productivity index,” he said. “There is life in livestock. Sheep do offer a very good investment.”
14  LIVESTOCKS / CATTLE, CARABAO, GOAT & SHEEP / Re: Philippine Goat News: on: August 03, 2012, 10:33:43 AM

There is money in goat raising
By Danny Q. Junco (The Philippine Star) Updated August 01, 2010


The father and son team of Jonie and Jeff inspect the sheep that they are about to buy in Australia


MANILA, Philippines - Indeed, there is money in goat raising, according to Ebenezer Goat Farm, the biggest goat and sheep importer in the country today, which has helped Filipino livestock raisers improve the breed of local stocks by crossing them with imported goats and sheeps.
 
Owned by businessmen father and son Jonie Valencia and Jeff Valencia, the agricultural company located on the hilly side of Capas, Tarlac, recently imported 2,400 heads of goat and sheep from Australia to be distributed to many Filipino livestock raisers, including the Philippine government for its livestock dispersal program for Filipino farmers. The imported animals are of the Boer, Saaneen and Dorpen breeds.
 
The goats and sheeps were transported by an eight-hour plane ride from Australia to the Philippines to minimize or prevent mortality while in transit.
 
“We help the Philippine government by supplying its requirement for goats and sheeps for some of its projects covered by its dispersal program of the animals to Filipino farmer recipients,” Jonie Valencia said.
 
The older of the two Valencias, Jonie said the imported goats and sheeps can help improve the bloodline of Philippine native animals.
 
Studiess show that the native goat can reach a maximum weight of only 15 kilos to 20 kilos while an imported breed like Boer weighs anywhere from 120 kilos to 150 kilos.
 
Valencia said his agricultural company doesn’t really earn much by selling goats, sheeps and even horses to Filipino farmers as his mark-up for each animal is minimal as this is not his main business which is supplying zinc to shipowners and builders.
 
“Goat farming is only my hobby and I find it meaningful and joyful as I can help the Philippine government, including Filipino farmers to improve the bloodline of their native goats and sheeps and to upgrade its meat and milk,” Valencia said.
 
He said his son Jeff is now taking over the goat farm business particularly the importation of the flocks from Australia and other countries. “I only handle the breeding of the livestock in the farm,” he added.
 
According to Valencia, the imported animals are adaptable to the climate of the country and they are not hard to be reared as they eat native grass though it should be complemented by concentrated feeds as the grass in the Philippines contains only two percent protein unlike in Australia where the grass contains 18 percent protein.
 
The breeding of the imported goats is a good business as each mother goat can give birth every six months or three times within two years. Normally, the mother goat can give birth to two offsprings for every delivery or six offsprings for every two years.
 
Some livestock raisers who obtained their imported stocks from the Ebenezer Goat Farm include former Reps. Dodot Jaworski, Toti Carino, Abdullah Dimaporo and Sandy Javier of the Andok’s chicken food business conglomerate.
 



“There is money in goat raising or in any agricultural business that is the reason why I go into it,” Jeff Valencia said.
15  LIVESTOCKS / Small ruminant (sheep and goat) / Re: News in brief: on: August 03, 2012, 09:52:27 AM
Goat exporter opposes new rules

 Updated October 24, 2011


Photo: A goat exporter says the increased costs associated with the scheme could spell the end for small producers (Supplied)
 

Map: Broome 6725
There has been a mixed reaction to the Federal Government's decision to have all live animals exported from Australia traced and audited.

The move will standardise monitoring systems across the cattle, sheep and goat export industries.

While the feedback from cattle producers has been generally positive, concerns have been raised by some other producers about the impact on their businesses.

Goat exporter, Mick Doak, of Independent Livestock Services, says the increased costs associated with the scheme will be hard to absorb.

"It's really a death knell for the smaller producer, the smaller person like myself, and also my clients particularly in Malaysia," he said.

"On the smaller end of the scale I think it's going to be unpractical to do what they're asking us to do.

"I just feel it's another cost we'll have to bear and I kind of feel our days are numbered and I'll also say that in a lot of ways the Government and the industry bodies don't really understand the overseas markets."

Topics:trade, goat-production, broome-6725, perth-6000, wa
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