Mexico Hog Markets
MEXICO - With Mexico's GDP currently forecast to increase by 4.1 per cent in 2011, pork producers are also gearing up for an improved year as demand returns in many sectors, writes Fernando Ortiz from Ibero-America Genesus.
 

With demand for meat, and protein products set to grow as incomes rise, consumption of feed grains is also increasing.

Concerns have, however, been growing about price inflation as the costs of food, fuel and electricity prices have increased. In the first two quarters, 2011 the sharp spike in corn futures on the global market led to fears of a new 'tortilla crisis' in Mexico. In an attempt to keep corn prices in check, the Mexican government hedged against corn price inflation, buying futures contracts to fix the price of corn on behalf of tortilla makers and other domestic processors.

Unexpected frosts in the northwestern state of Sinaloa in February 2011 have hit the Mexican corn crop, with the agriculture ministry warning of losses of a projected 1.8mn tonnes. Despite this setback, BMI still forecasts corn output to reach 23.98mn tonnes in 2010/11, a y-o-y rise of 17.7 per cent.

The threat of a new 'tortilla crisis' has also been averted by the government's decision to raise spending on a grain hedging programme, which will provide financial support of about MXN8.5bn (US$700mn) in subsidies to farmers, the food industry and grain traders to hedge risk through purchase futures options on the Chicago board of trade.

On another resolved issue two weeks ago resolution of a long- simmering dispute between the US and Mexico over long-haul, cross-border trucking represents a milestone in the economic integration of North America. US pork producers, cheese and other goods, are now looking forward to reduced Mexican tariffs with the resolution of the trucking deal. The retaliatory duties have been declined and this is going to be positive for enhance American pork sales.

The National Pork Producers Council has been urging the Obama administration to resolve as quickly as possible the trucking issue, which erupted in March 2009 when Mexico placed higher tariffs on an estimated $2.4 billion of US goods after the US Congress cut off funding to renew a pilot programme that let a limited number of Mexican trucking companies to haul freight beyond a 25-mile US commercial zone.

"This is great news for the US pork industry, as well as for other sectors affected by Mexico’s retaliatory tariffs," said NPPC President Sam Carney, a pork producer from Adair, Iowa. "Pork producers have been hurt by this retaliation.

"So we’re grateful to President Obama, Transportation Sec. Ray LaHood, USTR Ambassador Ron Kirk for their efforts in reaching this agreement with Mexico. We’re also grateful to President Calderon and his administration for their efforts on this issue."

The end of the trucking dispute will help. Transporting goods across the Mexican border is a complicated business, involving customs brokers, warehouses and lengthy inspections for drugs and illegal immigrants. Under the current system, Mexican truckers haul their merchandise to the border, where a transfer truck takes it across. A US truck picks it up on the American side. In time it will be possible for a Mexican driver to haul goods directly from any Mexican city straight through to Phoenix or even all the way to Boston. (They will be prohibited from handling shipping within the US) Such efficiencies will yield savings to US businesses and consumers.

The last crisis in the pork industry in Mexico as in the USA, Mexican producers have been losing money in large amounts for a period probably six to eight months longer than those in the USA or Canada.

The southern and central parts of Mexico largely produce to serve the domestic markets in large cities such as Guadalajara and Mexico City. Much of the Sonora area produces pork both for domestic consumption and a sizeable portion for export. Sonora uses corn from the United States and buys it at west coast prices so their price per bushel is over a dollar higher than in the Midwest USA. Many producers have switched to sorghum as a replacement for wheat or corn.

Unless a producer is aligned with a plant that is exporting, the typical way selling is done is on the cash market through intermediaries (like order buyers for cattle). These guys know the plants, prices and where opportunities are and bid hogs to supply those opportunities. Often little feedback is given about quality, but poor quality production is bid down by the buyers as it was in the USA before grids were widely in use. Often a range of acceptable weights, such as 110-120kg (240-260 lbs) is given and producers must weigh hogs to hit that range. While leaner hogs are desired, payments based on lean are not usually explicit and sometimes is confusing to understand different measurements in different states.

Newer and larger units operate all-in all-out, but the predominant production is continuous flow, though frequently on separate sites. The hot season is coming in the Sonora (July, August) when temperatures often reach 120F or hotter during the day. Many producers report pigs lose weight in the month of July despite misting and ventilation to reduce heat.

Many producers are multi-meat or poultry producers, especially in the Jalisco area. It is not unusual to have layers, broilers, hogs and some cattle--all at decent scale. Just like the USA, eggs and milk in Mexico have increased in cost dramatically in the last year which it was offsetting the hog loss problems for these producers who are diversified. Mexican red meat consumption is forecast to increase in 2011 as the economy and consumer purchasing power recovers.

Hog prices in Mexico have spiked over the last quarter as a reflection of higher feed costs passed onto consumers. But the higher hog prices are not only because of high feed costs but also because the national breeding herd has shrunk by 30 per cent in the last 3 years causing a current shortage of pork in the domestic market. These two factors paired to an increased consumption and improving of income of the population have resulted in better prices for the producer. However the giant black cloud ahead continues to be the volatile prices of grains in international markets. Today’s hog prices have been drop a little bit compared with the last report, typical ($21.80 MXN/kg) 74 US cents per pound in Mexico City and cost of production around ($18.50 MXN/kg) 71 US cents/lb. However there are some hopes of price dropping for grains as well in the coming weeks. From our perspective we cannot perceive any significant expansion on the Mexican swine herd over the next few months.

Lentils a Good Protein Source for Weanling Pigs
CANADA - Research conducted by the University of Alberta has concluded the diets of weanling pigs can include up to 20 per cent lentils without any negative impacts on performance, writes Bruce Cochrane.





Farm-Scape is sponsored by
Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork

FarmScape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council
and Sask Pork. 

Lentils contain higher levels of protein than cereal grains but less than canola meal or soybean meal and are a potentially good source of energy but they contain antinutritional compounds that can reduce performance when fed to pigs.

An abundance of lentils following the 2010 harvest prompted researchers to launch a three week feeding trial in which lentils were included in the diets of nursery pigs weaned at three weeks of age.

Dr Ruurd Zijlstra, an animal science professor with the University of Alberta, says the trial began about one week after weaning and researchers gradually replaced 20 per cent of the soybean meal and ten per cent of the wheat in the ration with lentils.

Dr Ruurd Zijlstra-University of Alberta
Probably two things that we found.

The first one is pigs actually are willing to eat lentils so there was basically no response to feed intake so that's a very good thing because it means the anti-nutritional factors that were still in these lentils, they did not have a negative impact on voluntary feed intake, so in other words from that perspective we can feed 30 per cent lentil.

The other thing we found is that using the predicted digestible nutrient profile that we use for feed formulation, up to about 22 and a half per cent of lentil we did not find a change in average daily gain and feed efficiency but once we moved to 30 per cent of lentils we saw a slight negative effect on daily gain and feed efficiency.

That means that we conclude that up to close to 20 per cent of lentil in the diet for nursery pigs, you shouldn't expect a negative impact on performance.

Dr Zijlstra says the big advantage is lentils are one more feedstuff that can be considered for diet formulation providing more flexibility in the feedstock matrix.

Pork Commentary: Leaders Plead Case to Congress
US - Jim Long writes, "Last week, leaders from the US livestock and poultry industry met with the House of Representatives Ag Committee chaired by Rep. Thomas Rooney on the concerns about tight feed grain supply."


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
Following are some of their comments.

Phillip Greene, Vice President – Foster Poultry Farms Fresno California – appearing on behalf of American Feed Industry Association.

Return agricultural commodity markets to operations driven by market demand by re working Federal energy policy to remove the mandated use of food commodities from the list of eligible feed stocks for federal assistance in bio energy development. Absent that, ensure there is mechanisms in place which require the Secretary of Agriculture to waive the RFS (Renewable Fuel Standard) in the event stocks – to – use ratios below a prescribed amount or prices hit specified levels.


Reinvent the CRP and government acreage – idling programmes to ensure such programmes do not provide an economic incentive take much–needed non–environmentally sensitive arable acres out of production.
Ted Seger President Farbest Foods Inc on behalf of National Turkey Federation comments:

Limited acreage expansion capability for corn production together with the expanded RFS (Renewable Fuel Standard) has driven net feed supplies and stocks available for uses other than ethanol to critically low levels. In light of the realities of grain supply and demand, Congress should re – evaluate the corn based RFS schedule for 2012 through 2015. A fair and balanced approach for the overall good of the US economy would give increased weight to food production and food security, and less weight to bio fuel production. The Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit (VEETC), or blender credit, is not required to support ethanol production and should simply go away at the end of the year.
"If we as a country are truly interested in reducing our dependence on foreign oil, then please tell me why the ethanol industry will be allowed to export nearly 1.0 billion gallons of ethanol. Why are the US taxpayers subsidizing another country’s dependence on oil?"

Michael Welch – President and CEO Harrison Poultry on behalf of the National Chicken Council:

Elimination of the Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit (VEETC) and import duty on ethanol.


Have a partial or full waiver of the Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) by filing a legal challenge with the Environmental Protection Agency or have legislation passed to permit individual states to opt out of the federal ethanol mandate and/or legislation mandating a stocks to use trigger mechanism for the RFS.
Minimize or prohibit further government subsidies and federal grants funding the building and expansion of infrastructure that encourages the manufacturing, distribution, and selling of corn based ethanol.

Remove without penalty non environmentally sensitive cropland from the USDA’s Conservative Reserve Programme (CRP).
There were other speakers including Dairy, Beef, and Swine (NPPC), but the previous recommendations clearly pick up what the Congressional Committee heard over and over.

Our Summary from the Speakers
Mandated ethanol use using corn is dumb.
Stop subsidizing corn for ethanol in any which way possible
How dumb is it for American taxpayers to subsidize corn ethanol for export?
Stop paying farmers to keep cropland from having crops?
Any plan is good that cripples corn ethanol production. Allow individual state opt outs from mandates.
The different speakers were consistent. The only thing they left out was burning our food is INSANE!

Corn ethanol has created DDG’s - the cursed by product. With DDG’s and we quote NPPC testimony at the Congressional hearing:

"There are several issues with feeding DDG’s to pigs. They are inconsistent from ethanol plant to ethanol plant to ethanol plant, and even within a plant. There is variability in their nutrient content – protein, fat, and phosphorous. If the fermentation or drying process for DDG’s is changed or varies from batch to batch, it can have impact on the digestibility of nutrients. Additionally, corn can contain mycotoxins that are in some instances detrimental to pig performance. The presence of mycotoxins varies by growing season, location and environmental factors. Since the ethanol production process removes the starch (two thirds of the volume) from corn, DDG’s from mycotoxin – contaminated corn will have three times the level of mycotoxin that was present in the corn itself. Depending on the per centage of DDG’s fed and which toxins are present, pigs can experience multiple problems, including immune challenges, abortion, and feed refusal. This is a severe limit on the widespread use of DDG’s in gestation and lactation diets. (Corn ethanol ‘the gift that keeps on giving!’).

"As pigs are fed increasing levels of DDGs, the corn oil present (also three times the concentration as in corn grain) can increase the iodine value, leading to soft fat of the carcass. This can result in belly slicing problems and possible rancidity or shelf life issues. A higher per centage of DDGs in the diet can also have a negative effect on carcass weights, most likely because of the increased fiber content of the DDGs."

Couple DDGs with Genetic products that include Pietran (compared to Durocs) and you have high iodine levels. Soft fat rancidity or shelf life issues are not how we build domestic or export demand. Packers are now measuring iodine levels. Some are discounting high levels. Why? Product quality is important. It is no wonder the largest packer integrator uses almost exclusively Durocs?

Summary
Corn ethanol has driven our costs higher – DDGs have hurt our product quality when coupled with inferior Pietran Genetics. It is good to see all Livestock – Poultry groups united to fight the corn ethanol insanity. Let’s hope Congress is listening.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics 

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates – September 2011
While coarse grain stocks are expected to be lower this month, wheat stocks are projected to be up, according to the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
The 2011 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised reflecting higher beef production but lower pork production. Continued large cow slaughter is expected to boost beef production. A slower pace of slaughter in the third quarter and slightly lower weights due to heat stress are expected to result in lower pork production compared to last month. USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on 28 September, providing an estimate of sow farrowings in June-August and an indication of producer intentions for farrowings into early 2012. Broiler production is about unchanged as an increased forecast of third-quarter production is offset by lower expected production in the fourth quarter. No change is made to turkey production and only a slight revision is made to egg production.

For 2012, the beef production forecast is raised but pork and poultry production forecasts are reduced from last month. Larger forecast early year beef production reflects marketing of the large number of calves which are being placed as a result of drought in the Southern Plains. However, production in subsequent quarters will reflect tighter supplies of cattle and lighter expected carcass weights due to the placement of lighter cattle and relatively high feed prices. Pork forecasts are reduced as tight feed supplies dampen hog weights. Poultry production forecasts are reduced as relatively high feed costs limit the sector’s expansion. The egg production forecast is lowered due to lower hatching egg production.

Beef import forecasts are lowered in 2011 and 2012 as US cow slaughter remains relatively high. The beef export forecast for 2011 is little changed from last month as lower-than-expected second-quarter exports are largely offset by higher forecast exports in the second half of the year. The pork export forecast for 2011 is lowered as second-quarter exports were smaller than expected. The broiler export forecast is also reduced on lower-than-expected shipments in the second quarter. No change is made to red meat or poultry exports for 2012.

The cattle price for 2011 is about unchanged as a higher third-quarter price is offset by a lower fourth-quarter price. Cattle prices for 2012 are forecast slightly lower as larger marketings pressure cattle prices early in the year. Hog prices are raised slightly from last month for 2011 but are unchanged for 2012. Broiler prices are lowered for 2011 as supplies remain relatively large and demand relatively weak. Prices for 2012 are raised from last month on lower production.

The milk production forecast for 2011 is raised as the dairy herd has been expanding at a more rapid rate than expected. However, the forecast for 2012 is reduced as higher forecast feed prices reduce the rate of growth in milk per cow. Commercial exports for 2011 are raised on the strength of current product exports. For 2012, fat-basis exports are lowered, largely on slightly weaker butter exports. Skim solids imports are raised for both 2011 and 2012.

Cheese prices for 2011 are forecast lower but non-fat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are forecast higher on the strength of relatively strong exports. Butter prices remain unchanged. The Class III price is lowered, based on the lower forecast cheese price, but the Class IV price forecast is unchanged from last month. For 2012, butter and cheese prices are unchanged but NDM and whey prices are forecast higher. The Class III price is unchanged, but the Class IV price forecast is raised. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $20.15 to $20.35 per cwt for 2011, but is unchanged at $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt for 2012.

Wheat
Projected US wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 990 million bushels this month with higher expected imports and lower expected food use and exports. Imports are raised 1 0 million bushels with larger supplies in Canada. Food use is projected five million bushels lower in line with revisions to 2010/11 based on the latest and final US Bureau of Census mill grind estimates and reflecting reduced prospects for per-capita flour consumption during calendar year 2011. Exports for 22011/12 are projected 775 million bushels lower with larger supplies and exports expected for Canada and the EU-27. The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $7.355 to $8.35 per bushel, up from last month’s range of $7.00 to $$8.20 per bushel, supported by higher corn prices.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 7.6 million tons higher mostly on larger beginning stocks in Canada and increased production for Canada, EU-27 and Ukraine. Beginning stocks for Canada are raised 1.3 million tons and production is raised 2.5 million tons, both reflecting the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. EU-27 production is raised 2.3 million tons with increases for Germany, Romania, France, Spain and Bulgaria as harvest reports and revisions to official estimates continue to indicate higher yields. Production for Ukraine is raised 1.0 million tons based on the latest harvest reports. Other smaller production changes include 0.2-million-ton increases for both Brazil and Morocco, and a 0.2-million-ton reduction for Uzbekistan.

World wheat trade is raised slightly for 2011/12 with increased imports projected for the United States and Uzbekistan. Global exports are also raised as higher expected shipments from Canada and EU–27 more than offset reductions for the United States and Turkey. Global wheat consumption is increased 1.9 million tons with higher expected wheat feeding in Canada, China, Morocco and Turkey more than offsetting a reduction for Russia. World wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 5.77 million tons higher at 194.6 million. At this level, global stocks would be up from 2010/11 and the second largest in the past decade.

Coarse Grains
US feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected lower this month with reduced corn production as summer heat and dryness continue to be reflected in survey-based yield forecasts. Corn production for 20111/12 is forecast 417 million bushels lower with expected yields down from last month across most of the Corn Belt. The national average corn yield is forecast at 148.1 bushels per acre, down 4.9 bushels from August and 16.6 bushels below the 2009/10 record. As forecast, this year’s yield would be the lowest since 20005/06. Despite the lower yield, production is forecast to be the third highest ever with the second highest planted area since 1944.

Total corn supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 4422 million bushels with a 20-million-bushel reduction in carrying and a five-million-bushel reduction in expected imports. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 drop with small increases in 2010/11 exports and use for sweeteners reflecting the latest available data. Imports for 22011/12 are reduced with the smaller forecast corn crop in Canada. Supplies for 2011/12 are projected to be the lowest since 2006/07.

Total corn use for 2011/12 is projected 400 million bushels lower with tighter supplies. Projected feed and residual use is reduced 20 million bushels, mostly reflecting lower expected residual disappearance with the smaller forecast crop. Corn use for ethanol is projected 100 million bushels lower with higher expected corn prices and continued weakening in the outlook for US gasoline consumption as forecast by the Energy Information Administration. Corn exports for 2011/12 are projected 100 million bushels lower with increased supplies and exports expected from Ukraine, Argentina and Brazil. US ending stocks are projected 42 million bushels lower at 672 million. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 5.3 per cent, compared with last month’s projection of 5.4 per cent. The season-average farm price is projected 30 cents per bushel higher on both ends of the range to a record $6.50 to $7.50 per bushel.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected 3.1 million tons lower with larger barley, sorghum, millet and oats supplies only partly offsetting the reduction for corn driven by the US changes. Global corn supplies are reduced 4.5 million tons as increases in foreign beginning stocks and production partly offset the reduction in US supplies. Projected global corn production for 2011/12 is lowered 5.9 million tons as a 4.8-million-ton increase in expected foreign output is outweighed by the 10.6-million-ton US reduction. Brazil and Argentina production for 2011/12 are raised 4.0 million tons and 1.5 million tons, respectively, on higher expected area with rising returns for corn in both countries. Ukraine corn production is raised 1.5 million tons based on indications for higher yields. Production is raised 1.0 million tons for EU-27 with higher expected yields in France and several countries in Eastern Europe. Production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Canada based on the latest Statistics Canada estimates. Production is also lowered 2.1 million tons for Egypt as lack of government restrictions on planting resulted in a sharp shift in acreage away from corn and into rice.

Global coarse grain trade for 2011/12 is raised slightly with increased foreign trade in barley and corn more than offsetting the reduction in US corn shipments. Barley imports are raised for Saudi Arabia and Syria with larger shipments expected from Ukraine and Russia. Corn exports are raised for Ukraine, Argentina, Brazil and EU-27. Corn exports are lowered for Canada and Paraguay. Global corn consumption for 2011/12 is lowered 7.3 million tons, mostly reflecting lower expected use in the United States. Foreign corn feeding and consumption are nearly unchanged. World corn ending stocks are projected up 2.9 million tons with increases in South America, Ukraine and EU-27 more than offsetting the reduction projected for the United States.

Oilseeds
US oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 92.4 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month. Soybean production is projected higher, partly offset by declines for peanuts and cottonseed. Soybean production for 2011/12 is projected at 3.085 billion bushels, up 29 million due to higher yields. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 165 million bushels, up 10 million as higher supplies are only partly offset by increased exports. Other changes for 2011/12 include reduced food use of soybean oil reflecting increased use of canola and palm oil, increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel and reduced food use for 2010/11.

Soybean crush for 2010/11 is increased five million bushels to 1.65 billion reflecting higher-than-expected crush reported for July. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 225 million bushels, down five million from last month. Other changes for 2010/11 include increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel and reduced food use. Soybean oil used for production of methyl ester was reported record high for July by the US Census Bureau. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 2.84 billion pounds, up slightly from last month.

Soybean and product prices are all projected higher for 2011/12. The US season-average soybean price is projected at $12.65 to $14.65 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range as higher corn prices provide support. Soybean meal prices are projected at $360 to $390 per short ton, up $5.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 55.5 to 59.0 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 453.0 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from last month. Production increases for soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower seed and cottonseed are only partly offset by lower peanut production. Soybean production is projected higher for the United States and India. India’s soybean production is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 10.5 million due to higher planted area. Canola production for Canada is increased 0.6 million tons to a record 13.2 million based on higher area and yield reported in the most recent report from Statistics Canada. Harvested area is projected record high despite excessive rainfall and flooding in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba that prevented some area from being planted. Canada’s canola production is also raised for both the 2009 and 2010 crops based on the same report. Other changes include higher sunflower seed production for EU-27, higher cottonseed production for China, lower cottonseed production for Pakistan and lower peanut production for India.

Rice
US rice production in 2011/12 is forecast at 190.9 million cwt, up 2.8 million from last month due entirely to an increase in yield. Harvested area is estimated at 2.62 million acres, down 20,000 acres. The average yield is estimated at a record 7,273 pounds per acre, up 159 pounds per acre from last month. Long-grain production is estimated at 119.2 million cwt, down 4.9 million from last month, and the smallest crop since 1996/97. Combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at a record 71.6 million, an increase of 7.7 million from last month.

All rice beginning stocks for 2011/12 are lowered 2.7 million cwt from last month to 48.4 million (rough-equivalent basis) based on USDA’s Rice Stocks report released on 26 August. The import projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 19.0 million as it is expected that more long-grain rice will be imported due to tighter domestic supplies.

Exports for 2011/12 are projected at 93.0 million cwt, down 4.0 million cwt from last month, and down 18.6 million from the revised 2010/11 estimate. Long-grain exports are lowered 5.0 million cwt from last month to 61.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain exports are raised 1.0 million to 32.0 million. The decrease in the export projection is due mostly to a much tighter supply situation but additionally to an expected increase in competition from South American exporters in Western Hemisphere long-grain markets. Long-grain exports to Iraq are also expected to be lower. Increased competition principally from Egypt is expected to reduce medium-grain exports to Libya. All rice ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 38.3 million cwt, up 5.1 million from last month but down 10.1 million from the revised 2010/11 stocks.

The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, up 80 cents per cwt on both ends of the range from last month compared to $11.10 per cwt for 2010/11. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $15.00 to $16.00 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $18.40 per cwt for 2010/11. The 2010/11 all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, up 80 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $12.70 per cwt for 2010/11. The increase in prices is due to both expected tighter domestic supplies, for long-grain, and higher global prices as a result of government policies in Thailand aimed at supporting domestic rice prices. Additionally, higher commodity prices in general will help to support rice prices.

Projected global 2011/12 rice supply and use are increased from last month. Global rice production is projected at a record 458.4 million tons, up 2.1 million tons from last month, primarily due to larger expected crops in Brazil, China, the Philippines and the United States. China’s 2011/12 rice crop is increased 1.0 million tons to 139.0 million, due mainly to an increase in the early rice crop. Brazil’s rice crop is raised nearly one million tons due to both an increase in area and expected yield. The recent surge in global prices accounts for the increase in planted area in Brazil from last month’s forecast. Global 2011/12 trade is nearly unchanged from last month. Global consumption is raised 0.7 million tons from a month ago due mostly to China. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 98.7 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month, and the largest stocks since 2002/03. Stocks are raised for Brazil, China, the Philippines and the United States.

Sugar
Projected US sugar supply for fiscal year 2011/12 is decreased 215,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower beginning stocks and production. Beet sugar production is lowered 175,000 tons based on lower forecast sugar beet production. Sugar use is unchanged.

World corn trade forecast for 2010/11 was adjusted down 0.3 million tons to 91.7 million tons. Argentina’s exports are raised 0.5 million tons to 15.0 million and Ukraine’s are reduced 0.5 million to 5.5 million, both based on the pace of shipments in recent months. Imports by Brazil, China and Chile are each trimmed 0.2 million tons because of the slow pace of recent shipments and purchases.

The pace of US shipments for 2010/11 supports the 46.0 million tons forecast for the October-September trade year. Census data for October through July reached 38.3 million tons, and August grain inspections were 3.7 million. If the August Census number comes in a bit higher than inspections, as is normal, and if September 2011 shipments fall modestly from those of the previous year, exports will be on pace. The 2010/11 local marketing year (September-August) exports are increased 10 million bushels to 1,835 million based on the August inspections.

World Sorghum Trade Boosted Slightly
Global sorghum trade in 2011/12 is projected up 0.2 million tons this month to 6.2 million. Australia’s export prospects are increased 0.2 million tons to 1.0 million. Import prospects for Colombia and Chile are each increased 0.1 million tons based on increased imports estimated for the previous year.

World sorghum trade forecast for 2010/11 is reduced slightly, with a 0.2-million-ton increase for Argentina more than offset by a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Australia. Australia’s shipments to Japan have lagged expectations, trimming Japan’s imports 0.3 million tons to 1.3 million. However, Argentina’s shipments to Colombia and Chile exceeded expectations.

US sorghum exports for 2010/11 are on pace to reach 3.8 million tons for the trade year and 150 million bushels for the local year based on August inspections of 3.3 million, slightly above a year earlier.

Global Barley Trade Prospects Increase
World barley trade for 2011/12 is increased 0.9 million tons this month to 15.4 million. Saudi Arabia has been buying aggressively and has demonstrated it intends to maintain ample supplies. Saudi imports are increased 0.7 million tons this month to 7.0 million. Syria’s imports are increased 0.2 million tons to 0.5 million due to strong demand.

Feed Outlook – September 2011
The US corn yield has dropped and this is expected to boost prices, according to the latest report from the USDA Economic Research Service.
 

The US corn yield forecast for 2011/12 dropped 4.9 bushels per acre this month to 148.1 bushels. Corn production prospects are reduced 417 million bushels to 12.5 billion, just 0.4 per cent higher than the previous year despite a 4.6 per cent increase in planted area. Sustained high corn prices are expected to reduce use, with feed and residual down 200 million bushels and ethanol use and exports each down 100 million. US ending stocks are down 42 million bushels to 672 million, as high prices maintain a stocks-to-use ratio near five per cent. World corn ending stocks are boosted this month as foreign production responds to sustained high prices. The US share of world corn trade is projected to fall below 50 per cent for the first time in 30 years.


DOMESTIC OUTLOOK

Feed Grain Supply and Use Down
US feed grain production in 2011/12 is forecast at 328.1 million metric tons, down 10.5 million from last month’s forecast and slightly below the 2010/11 estimate of 330.0 million. Sharply reduced corn yield and production this month swamp a small sorghum production increase. Forecast beginning stocks are down 0.5 million tons from last month and down 21.1 million from last year. Feed grain supplies in 2011/12 are forecast at 357.3 million tons, down 11.1 million from last month primarily due to lower carry-in and the decreased yield forecast for corn. Feed grain supplies are down 23.3 million tons from last year’s estimate.

Projected feed grain use for 2011/12 dropped 10.2 million tons this month to 337.6 million as sustained high prices are expected to constrain demand. Total use is forecast down 16 million metric tons from the 2010/11 projection. Feed and residual drops 5.1 million tons from last month as high grains prices constrain livestock profitability and the smaller forecast corn crop reduces residual disappearance. Feed and residual is projected at 123.2 million tons for 2011/12, compared with the 2010/11 projection of 133.0 million. Projections for food, seed and industrial (FSI) uses and exports each slipped 2.5 million tons from last month. Lower projected corn use for ethanol reduces feed grain FSI use.

For 2010/11, feed grain FSI is raised 254,000 tons this month due to increased corn use for high-fructose corn syrup and glucose and dextrose. Exports are also raised by the same amount to 50.6 million this month, reflecting August corn shipments. This lowers projected ending stocks by 500,000 tons to 27.0 million.

Feed Use
When converted to a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2011/12 is projected to total 128.5 million tons, down 5.7 million from last month and down seven per cent from the 2010/11 forecast of 138.2 million. Corn is estimated to account for 94 per cent of the feed and residual use in 2011/12, up from an estimated 92 per cent in 2010/11.

The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) for 2011/12 is 94.5 million units, slightly higher than the 2010/11 estimate of 92.9 million. The grain used per GCAU in 2011/12 is expected to be 1.36 tons, down from an estimated 1.49 tons in 2010/11. Sustained high grain prices and lower residual disappearance are expected to cause the reduction in grain disappearance per GCAU. In the index components, GCAUs are decreased slightly for dairy, hogs, layers and broilers from last month.

USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on 24 September and will provide an indication of sow farrowing intentions into early 2011. Higher feed prices are expected to slow pork production gains and reduce feed use.

Corn Yield Cut, Production Slips this Month
US corn production in 2011/12 is forecast at 12.5 billion bushels, down 417 million from last month and only 50 million bushels above 2010/11, despite a 4.6 per cent increase in planted area. Based on conditions on 1 September, the national average corn yield is forecast at 148.1 bushels per acre, down 4.9 bushels from the August forecast and 4.7 bushels per acre below the 2010/11 yield. The current yield forecast for 2011/12 is 16.6 bushels below the 2009/10 record and would be the lowest yield since 2005/06. Despite this lower yield, production is forecast to be the third highest ever, with the second highest planted area since 1944.

Projected beginning stocks for 2011/12 are lowered 20 million bushels this month to 920 million, reflecting higher estimates of exports and FSI use during the 2010/11 season. Projected imports for 2011/12 were reduced five million bushels, and if realised, the 15 million bushels imported will be half the level imported during the 2010/11 crop year. The reduced imports primarily reflect slower shipments from Canada due to lower production there. The resulting corn supply for 2011/12 is projected at 13.4 billion bushels, 442 million below last month’s projection and 753 million below 2010/11. Estimated 2010/11 supplies were unchanged this month at 14.2 billion bushels.

Feed and residual use for 2011/12 is lowered 200 million bushels this month, as tighter supplies and higher prices trim feed demand. Residual disappearance is also expected to decline with the smaller crop. The export projection is cut 100 million bushels as US supplies tighten relative to other producers. FSI use was lowered 100 million bushels on lower projected ethanol production based on reduced prospects for fuel consumption reported by the Energy Information Administration. Projected 2011/12 ending stocks are lowered 42 million bushels from last month to 672 million bushels as strong prices maintain ‘pipeline’ stocks relative to use of about five per cent.

Projected 2011/12 corn prices are increased 30 cents on each end of the range for an average of $6.50 to $7.50 per bushel, reflecting tighter supplies and reduced ending stocks. The 2010/11 estimated price was reduced five cents to $5.20 per bushel from the mid-point of last month’s estimated range.






Sorghum Production Advances
US sorghum production is forecast at 244 million bushels for 2011/12, an increase of 3.5 million bushels over the August forecast reflecting higher than expected yields in Texas. At the forecast level, this year’s production is still 101 million bushels below the 2010/11 harvest. Based on conditions on 1 September, the sorghum yield forecast was increased 0.8 bushels per acre to 55.6 bushels per acre. However, yields are 16.2 bushels per acre lower than last season due to drought in the southern growing regions. In Kansas, the top producing state, producers are expecting a yield of 55 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and 21 bushels below the 2010 estimate. Producers in Texas, the second largest sorghum-producing state, expect the crop to yield 52 bushels per acre, up two bushels from last month but down 18 bushels from last year.

This month’s increased projected supplies are reflected in a forecast 3.5-million-bushel increase in ending stocks for 2011/12 compared to August.

The sorghum farm price is forecast 30 cents per bushel higher on each end or the range this month to $6.30 to $7.30 per bushel, supported by tight supplies and higher corn prices. The 2010/11 farm price forecast is lowered five cents from the mid-point of last month’s projected range to $5.15 per bushel.






The increase in production boosts 2011/12 projected supply 3.5 million bushels to 270.759 million. Sorghum supply and use for 2010/11 was unchanged this month.

Barley and Oats Unchanged
US barley and oats production was not revised in the September Crop Production report. Any production revisions will be reported in the Small Grains 2011 Summary to be released 30 September 2011. No changes are made this month in barley or oats supply and use.

For the 2011/12 marketing year, the projected season-average farm price for all barley is reduced 35 cents per bushel on each end of the range to $5.45 to $6.55 per bushel. While prices for feed barley are expected higher with rising feed grain values, reported prices for malting barley have been lower than expected. Much of the malting barley crop is raised under contract with prices set last winter and spring before planting. The 2010/11 estimated price for all barley is unchanged at $3.86 per bushel.

The 2011/12 projected oats price is unchanged at $3.40 to $4.00 per bushel. Stronger corn prices for 2011/12 are expected to support other feed grain prices; however, a substantial portion of the 2011/12 oat crop has already been marketed at prices well below current levels. The 2010/11 estimated price for oats is unchanged at $2.52 per bushel.

INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK

Increased Foreign Coarse Grain Production Partly Offsets US Drop
World coarse grain production in 2011/12 is projected at 1,131.2 million tons, down 5.1 million this month but foreign production is up 5.4 million tons to 802.9 million. Most of the large changes in 2011/12 production this month are for corn. Global millet production is up 0.4 million with increased production for Russia and Ukraine, while barley is up 0.2 million with increases for Ukraine and the EU more than offsetting a 0.7-million-ton drop for Morocco caused by excessive rains during the harvest. World oats and rye production are nearly unchanged this month, with foreign sorghum and mixed grain production unchanged.

Foreign corn production for 2011/12 is up 4.8 million tons this month as increases for Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and the EU more than offset reductions for Egypt and Canada. Brazil’s corn production in 2011/12 is projected to reach a record 61.0 million tons, up 4.0 million. The Brazilian Government published its final estimate of 2010/11 corn production at 57.5 million tons, up 2.0 million from last month’s USDA forecast, with increased area and production for the second crop. Despite the late corn planting and early cut-off of rains in Mato Grosso, the seven per cent area expansion for all of Brazil in 2010/11 supported record corn production. Current strong corn prices compared to soybean prices are expected to support corn area expansion for the first-crop 2011/12 corn just now being planted in Southern Brazil, while the high prices of both corn and soybeans are expected to encourage expanded area in the Center-West for double-cropped soybeans and corn. Total corn area in 2011/12 is projected up five per cent to 14.5 million acres, supporting another record corn crop.






The strong prices for corn compared to soybeans are also expected to support corn area in Argentina, forecast up 12.5 per cent from a year earlier. Increased area is boosting projected 2011/12 corn production 1.5 million tons this month to a record 27.5 million tons.

Corn production prospects for Ukraine are increased 1.5 million tons to 18.0 million based on early harvest reports and the good condition of the crop. Favourable temperature and rainfall during the season in most areas is confirmed by satellite imagery. Good corn yield prospects boost projected EU 2011/12 corn production 1.0 million tons this month to 61.0 million. Improved crop prospects are reported for Romania, France, Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria.

Corn production prospects are reduced dramatically this month for Egypt, down 2.1 million tons to 3.8 million. The government is not effectively limiting access to irrigation water for rice, and with rice more profitable than corn, Egyptian producers are planting rice in place of corn. Egyptian corn area is projected to drop 39 per cent to 0.52 million hectares in 2011/12, the lowest in the USDA database back to 1960, and production is expected to be the smallest since 1985/86.

Canada’s corn yields are projected lower this month as the growing season has been less than ideal, with Ontario suffering from some of the same problems as neighboring Ohio. Canada’s 2011/12 average corn yield is forecast down 14 per cent from the previous year’s record.

Corn production prospects for the Philippines are also down slightly (0.1 million tons) due to reduced area prospects.

Increased Foreign Beginning Stocks Support 2011/12 Supplies
Foreign coarse grain beginning stocks for 2011/12 are increased 2.5 million tons this month to 135.9 million, more than offsetting the 0.5-million-ton US decline. Foreign supplies (production plus beginning stocks) for 2011/12 are projected up 8.0 million tons this month, with a 5.4-million-ton increase in production.

Most of the foreign increase in coarse grain beginning stocks is from a 1.9-million-ton increase for corn. Brazil, with increased 2010/11 corn production, is projected to carry in 10.0 million tons of corn, up 1.3 million this month. Ukraine’s 2011/12 carry-in is raised 0.5 million tons this month and Paraguay’s is boosted 0.3 million, due to reduced 2010/11 export sales and shipments reported for the final months of the marketing year. Partly offsetting is a 0.2-million-ton reduction in beginning stocks for China because of a reduction in 2010/11 estimated imports.

World barley beginning stocks for 2011/12 are up 0.5 million tons this month to 26.1 million, mostly due to a Statistics Canada report revealing stocks 0.3 million tons higher than forecast last month by USDA. Russia’s barley stocks are boosted 0.1 million tons due to increased 2010/11 imports. Several other countries have smaller changes in barley beginning stocks.

Global oats beginning stocks for 2011/12 are up 0.2 million tons to 3.1 million, with increases for Canada and Chile. Beginning stocks of rye are reduced slightly, and sorghum is unchanged.

US Changes Cut Global Coarse Grains Consumption Prospects
World coarse grain use in 2011/12 is projected down 5.9 million tons this month to 1,144.1 million due to reduced US use. However, foreign consumption is forecast up with increased supplies. Foreign use is forecast up only 1.7 million tons to 851.2 million, as high prices limit consumption gains. Foreign corn use is up only 0.3 million tons as changes are mostly offsetting, with reductions for Egypt and Canada offset by increases for Brazil, Colombia and changes in the sum of world trade. While the sum of local marketing year exports increased slightly this month, imports declined 0.5 million tons, increasing global disappearance.

Brazil’s corn use for 2011/12 is projected up 1.5 million tons this month to 52.0 million tons, while the previous year is estimated up 0.7 million tons to 49.5 million. Expanding poultry and pork production for domestic use and meat exports supports the five per cent growth in corn use estimated for 2010/11 and projected for 2011/12. Colombia’s 2011/12 corn use is up 0.2 million tons this month to 5.4 million based on growth in poultry production.

Corn consumption in Egypt for 2011/12 is cut 1.7 million tons to 10.4 million. Sharply reduced corn production and uncertain economic prospects cut expected food, seed and industrial use 0.6 million tons to 1.6 million, and faltering poultry production is expected to cut feed and residual use 1.1 million tons to 8.8 million. Reduced production in Canada is expected to reduce corn feed use to 6.3 million tons, down 0.5 million this month.

World barley consumption in 2011/12 is projected up 1.0 million tons this month to 137.1 million. Increased use is projected for Saudi Arabia, up 0.5 million tons this month to 7.1 million. The Saudi Government has backed up assurances of maintaining ample supplies for feeding sheep and camels by importing aggressively in recent weeks. Syria has also imported at a stronger rate than expected, boosting use prospects 0.2 million tons to 1.2 million. Russia, with increased beginning stocks and no incentive to build stocks during 2011/12, is expected to increase use, boosting domestic consumption 0.3 million tons this month to 14.3 million. Chile’s barley use is up slightly this month. However, with reduced production prospects, barley use in Morocco is forecast down 0.1 million tons to 3.2 million.

Increased millet production in Russia and Ukraine is boosting consumption 0.4 million tons this month. Increased oats supplies in Chile boost prospects for 2011/12 use 0.1 million tons this month.

World Corn and Coarse Grain Ending Stocks Increased This Month
Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected up 2.8 million tons this month to 150.0 million. Foreign stocks are up 3.7 million tons, more than offsetting the decline in US prospects. Foreign corn stocks are up 3.9 million tons, barley is down 0.3 million, and sorghum and oats are each up 0.1 million.

Brazil’s corn ending stocks for 2011/12 are up 2.8 million tons this month to 11.0 million. A combination of sharply increased production prospects and no government programme to subsidise transport for export or domestic use is expected to result in corn stocks building in Brazil during 2011/12. This month, corn ending stocks are boosted 0.5 million tons each for Argentina, Ukraine, Paraguay and the EU. Increased production boosts ending stocks prospects for Argentina, Ukraine and the EU but slow imports by Brazil are expected to cause stocks to build in Paraguay. Corn ending stocks prospects are reduced 0.5 million tons for Egypt due to reduced production, 0.2 million for China because of reduced 2010/11 imports, 0.1 million for the Philippines due to reduced area, and slightly for Chile.

Barley ending stocks prospects for 2011/12 are cut 0.6 million tons each for Morocco and Russia. Reduced production is expected to cut stocks in Morocco, while strong demand for exports and domestic use is likely to limit Russia’s barley stocks. Partly offsetting are increased stocks prospects for Canada, up 0.4 million due to increased beginning stocks revealed by a stocks survey;for the EU, up 0.3 million due to increased production; and for Saudi Arabia, up 0.2 million based on increased imports and government policy.

US Corn Exports Lowered as Competitors Increase Share
Sustained high prices for US corn are encouraging competitors’ production and exports. In 2011/12, for the first time since 1971/72, the US share of the world corn market is expected to fall below 50 per cent. This month, US corn exports for trade year 2011/12 are reduced 3.0 million tons to 42.0 million – down 100 million bushels to 1.65 billion for the September-August local marketing year. Reduced US production and high prices are expected to limit demand, including exports. As of 1 September, outstanding export sales were 13.2 million tons, down from 15.1 million a year earlier.

High corn prices relative to those for other crops are helping boost competitors’ production. Ukraine, with expanded area and record yields is expected to export 10.0 million tons of corn, up 1.5 million this month. Brazil and Argentina, in the Southern Hemisphere, have increased 2011/12 production prospects this month but that production will be available for only a portion of the October-September trade year. Trade year 2011/12 export prospects for the two countries are up 0.5 million tons each to 8.5 and 18.0 million, respectively. EU corn exports are up 0.5 million tons to 1.5 million, boosted by increased production and attractive prices outside the EU. Both Romania and Bulgaria are in a good position to ship to markets outside the EU.

Canada’s corn export prospects for 2011/12 are cut in half, down 0.5 million tons to 0.5 million, because of reduced production prospects. Paraguay’s exports are reduced 0.2 million tons to 1.5 million due to weak import demand from neighbouring Brazil.

Monday, September 19, 2011
China Pork Imports Set to Hit Record
CHINA - According to analysts, the country's pork imports are likely to hit a record this year, but the surge will have limited influence on rising prices.


"China imported about 400,000 tons of pork and pork offal in the first five months of this year, up 43 per cent year-on-year, and imports will probably hit a record 1 million tons this year," said Ma Chuang, deputy secretary-general of the China Animal Agriculture Association.

An earlier report from the Netherlands-based Rabobank Group indicated that the potential gap between pork supply and demand would be between 2 and 2.5 million tons in 2012. The import volume of pork and pork offal will be 1.1 to 1.4 million tons this year, which will be between 25 per cent and 60 per cent higher than 2010's figure.

China's pork prices, a key driver of inflation, rose 0.7 per cent in the week ending 11 September from the previous week, hitting a new record, data from the Ministry of Commerce showed on Wednesday. It was the fifth consecutive weekly rise in pork prices, according to Reuters.

"The imports of pork and pork offal will not have an actual influence on surging domestic prices because imports only account for a very small share of China's huge pork consumption, and it is not practical to turn to imports to curb the price," said Huang Guiheng, a manager in the research department of Bric Global Agricultural Consultant Ltd, a domestic market research firm.

The price of pork will continue to be high in the foreseeable future owing to the rising cost of labor, corn and feed and the risks inherent in the industry, such as stock mortality. Mr Guiheng said prices will begin to decline "around the second quarter of next year, with supplies increasing from July onwards."

However, Mr Chuang said the central government will not rely on imports to regulate the price surge, although there is no limit on imports. He expects pork prices to have a "soft landing" as the market regulates itself and "steadiness and sustainability are key factors for livestock production."

China's imports of pork and pork offal reached their peak in 2008 with a volume of 910,000 tons. In 2010, the country imported 900,000 tons of pork, with Denmark being the major supplier, followed by the United States, Canada and France.

About 700,000 tons of the imports comprised offal including pigs' heads, knuckles and haslet (a form of meatloaf) which are not eaten in Western countries but are common in the diets of Asian countries.

"In the first five months of this year, more than half of China's pork imports came from the US," he said.

The cumulative volume of US pork imports was more than 91,000 tons during the first seven months of this year, a five-fold increase from 14,900 tons in the same period last year, according to report in the China Business News, citing the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). China is the fifth-largest market for US pork exports.

The country has been a net importer of pork and pork offal since 2007 and net imports will maintain their momentum over the long term, a factor that will further benefit producers in Western countries.

"China's surging demand for pork and pork offal implies an optimal export scenario because pork offal is not eaten in Western countries and is not allowed to be processed into animal feed," said Mr Chuang, who suggested European and US pork producers should supply pork to their local markets and export offal to Asian countries

Moreover, farmers overseas can profit from pork offal exports and save money on disposing of the surplus, he added.

In general, it costs $40 for US farmers to dispose of a ton of chicken's feet, which are not eaten in the US but are popular in Asia, if they were not exported.

Pork offal accounts for about 12 or 13 per cent of US pork production.

US pork exports are forecast to rise 4 per cent to $5.2 billion in 2012 because of robust demand, particularly from Japan, South Korea, and China, according to the USDA.

Although imports of pork and pork offal accounted for less than 2 per cent of China's pork consumption in 2010 - approximately 50.7 million tons - but still had a negative effect on domestic pig breeding and production.

"Imports of pork and pork offal usually come in large volumes and with higher quality but at a cheaper price, which is damaging the domestic industry," Mr Chuang said.

Another problem is the quality of pork offal, as there are no health and safety standards on these products in the US and Europe.

What is the state of the meat goat industry in the country?That is really hard to tell because such little information can be found on the topic.There appears to be a devoted core group of people who are trying to get such a venture lifted off the ground.It would be safe to say at this point it is still at the hobby level and there is interest from others to join in but at the same time others are leaving this livestock venture.It is kind of a good news, bad news livestock venture.It comes back to the age old problem of where is your farm located,those closer to urban centres have better access to markets while those of us in the rural countryside have limited markets for our goats.Its a real catch 22 and sometimes seems not worth all the trouble one has to go through.Some areas seem to get more help from the powers to be while other areas seem to be left out of any programs that is meant to help this entry level livestock industry.Does the Goat and Sheep Federation in country support those of us in the rural countryside?What about this so called road map for the industry?The talk from the Govt. side was to have the rural countryside help launch the meat producing side of this industry because the land mass was better suited for the rural provinces or was/is it all talk and no action.The one thing the Independant Producers of the Provinces can be thankful for is the announcement that no animal can be transported from the north unless it passes all the testing needed but the one test they forget to include is testing for CL.Those of us who farm in areas that  has been always free of FMD do not want those breeders from the north to ship sick and crappy livestocks into our areas that might make our livestock sick and ruin our small but struggling goat/sheep meat industry.There has been some movement on the Govts. side to make sure those of us in the provinces will not have to worry about this problem with sick and diseased animals coming into our areas and causing real headaches for the producers who wish to get into such a livestock venture.The breeders in the north might not be happy with all this extra testing but its the same in the west here,all livestock must pass testing for known diseases before they can be moved outside of the areas they were housed from.The Philippines is just catching up with international standards that has been in place for years here in the west.The extra costs of this testing is always passed on to the customers who wish to buy and ship off to their place of farming.Really its a international standard for cloven hoof animals.Look at it as an insurance policey against diseases.This industry seems to be taking baby steps to get to where it needs to be and maybe,just maybe this is a good thing.Sometimes moving too fast only leads to trouble down the road.Ten years ago,the country was CAE and CL free,not today.If these laws were in place back then,these 2 known diseases would not be an issue today in country.Now that these 2 known diseases are in country today,how do we get rid of them for our protection.

Its a known fact that in countries like China the masses are leaving the land to get jobs in the cities.Puts more strain on the country to locate realiable sources of foods to feed their masses.In the future these countries will need to import more and more protein to feed their hungry masses.The Philippines is in a prime position to capitalize on this opportunity to supply protein to a country like China and if the laws are in place in the Philippines to have our cloven hoof animals disease free then this will only benefit our industry for future exports.Countries like the USA have already identifiied China as a country with a hugh need for protein and they will capitalize on exports if no one else will.The Philippines has a better growing season for forages and is closer to China than the west is.The wild card might be Brazil which is also has its eyes on China.Its a known fact,when people have higher income levels,they buy more protein for their daily needs.Exports markets might be available for the country and also the middle east which is known for a hugh taste for goat and sheep meat.There is also the domestic market in country that needs to be addressed.

On the surface,it now appears there is an ample supply of island born boer bucks to supply anyone who wishes to buy one for upgrading their stocks or to become a breeder themselves.The country has a good supply of boers and commercial boer bucks are more affordable than ever.There is no need to import anymore as breeders have already bred enough numbers to supply the demand as needed with Alaminos leading the way.Instead of importing more, monies would be better spent if the powers to be would supply certain rural areas with these local island born boers.

The meat goat industry is still at the hobby level over any real large business venture.It is with regret, I announce the closing of the Rizol mega goat farm located in District 1 of Negros Oriental with over 700 hybrid and a limited number of purebred boers due to in part,poor to no business plan,poor sales and high overhead as they will move into cattle production.At the same time I know of a backyard breeder with only 1 boer buck and 1 boer doe who is producing outstanding boer offsprings.Just goes to show you that even a small producer can breed some really top of the line goats.

Best of luck to all who wish to get into this side of the goat industry.

Bill Threatens Ability of Abattoirs to Access Pigs
CANADA - The executive Vice President of Hylife Foods warns the ability of his company's recently upgraded Neepawa pork processing plant to access adequate hog supplies is being threatened by the Manitoba government's expansion of its moratorium on new hog barn construction, writes Bruce Cochrane.





Farm-Scape is sponsored by
Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork

FarmScape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council
and Sask Pork. 

Bill 46, the ‘Save Lake Winnipeg Act’, passed in June, contains new provisions to reduce the amount of nutrients entering Lake Winnipeg including extending a 2008 moratorium on new hog barn construction or expansion in part of Manitoba, to the entire province.

On 13 September, representatives of the town of Neepawa, Keystone Agricultural Producers Hylife Foods and the local pork industry gathered in Neepawa to draw attention to the impact the bill will have on their local economy.

Hylife executive vice-president, Denis Vielfaure, fears the bill will hamper the ability of abattoirs, including his company's recently upgraded Neepawa processing plant, to access hogs.

Denis Vielfaure – Hylife
It is getting of a concern.

We've had a couple of really tough years in the hog industry.

We lost ten per cent of the inventory in Canada in the last two years, there's less hogs.

We have abattoirs that are here, they need hogs so there's a bit of a demand for hogs right now.

Typically, through normal attrition, you'll keep that balance and a little bit of a growth but we haven't seen that because of the hard times in the industry.

Now with a higher level of environmental regulations which are closing down some of the smaller farms who can't cope with the costs and also some that simply don't want to invest in this industry because it's too tough.

Mr Vielfaure acknowledges as a result of factors such as the high value of the Canadian dollar and US Country of Origin labelling (COOL), which have reduced to the movement of Canadian hogs south, Hylife has been able to access enough hogs, but just enough and he insists we can't allow that to slip.

FAO Food Price Index Almost Unchanged
GLOBAL - World food prices remained virtually unchanged between July and August 2011 according to the FAO Food Price Index published today.


The Index averaged 231 points last month compared to 232 points in July. It was 26 per cent higher than in August 2010 but seven points below its all-time high of 238 points in February 2011.

Within the index, cereals prices rose, reflecting the fact that although cereal production is expected to increase, it will not do so by enough to offset the additional demand, so that stocks continue to be low and prices continue to be high and volatile.

The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 253 points in August, up 2.2 per cent, or 5 points, from July and 36 per cent higher than in August 2010. However, the firmer cereal prices were largely offset by declines in international prices of most other commodities included in the Food Price Index, oils and dairy products in particular.

Production rebound
Cereal price rises stem from a supply and demand balance that remains tight despite the anticipated increase in production. World cereal production in 2011 is now forecast to reach 2 307 million tonnes, 3 per cent higher than in 2010. But this latest forecast is nearly 6 million tonnes lower than the previous forecast published in July.

Among the major cereals, the maize supply situation is a cause for concern following downward revisions to maize crop prospects in the United States, the world's largest maize producer, because of continued hot weather in July and August.

Average wheat prices were also up 9 per cent in August given the strong demand for feed wheat and shrinking supplies of high quality wheat. Nonetheless, world wheat production is forecast to increase by 4.3 per cent (or 28 million tonnes), only 4 million tonnes below the 2009 record.

World coarse grain production is still heading for a record level of 1 147.5 million tonnes, up 2.4 per cent (or 27 million tonnes) from 2010, in spite of lowered maize production prospects in the United States, the world's largest maize producer.

Rice price gains
Rice prices also gained with the benchmark Thai rice price up 5 per cent from July, driven by a policy change in Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, where paddy rice will be purchased from farmers at above market prices.

Global rice production prospects remain favourable, however, with output set to reach a new high of 479 million tonnes, up 2.5 per cent from 2010.

Low inventories
Total cereal utilization in 2011/12 is forecast to increase by 1.4 per cent, almost matching anticipated 2011 production. As a result, global cereal inventories by the close of seasons in 2012 are likely to remain close to their already low opening levels. Only rice stocks are expected to increase significantly, supported by record production.

Wheat inventories are likely to decline to their lowest level since 2009 and world stocks of coarse grains are also forecast to plunge, with maize inventories falling to 124 million tonnes, their lowest level since 2007. Given the tight global supply and demand balance for coarse grains, its stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to fall to a historical low of 13.4 per cent.

The FAO Oils/Fats Price Index averaged 244 points in August, following a declining trend since March but still remaining high in historical terms.

The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 221 points in August, significantly down from 228 points in July and 232 points in June, but still 14 per cent higher than the same period last year.

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 181 points in August, up 1 per cent from July.

The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 394 points in August, down 2 per cent from July, but still 50 per cent higher than in August 2010.

Pork Roast Sales up 40 Per Cent
UK - Supermarket chain, Morrisions, reports a near 40 per cent increase in sales of pork roasts in the past year.


Savvy British shoppers are increasingly turning to pork joints as a cheaper red meat roast alternative in a bid to try and save the pennies.

Figures from Morrisons have revealed a 39 per cent increase in the volume of sales of fresh pork joints compared to last year, with beef and lamb experiencing slower growth at just four per cent.

And the supermarket's policy of using only British pigs for its fresh pork joints means the rise is also good news for the British farming industry.

The rise in sales can be attributed to the big difference in price between the meats. The average cost of a pork joint in store during Q2 of this year (May to July) was just £3.61 compared to beef at £7.02 and lamb at £7.52.

Richard Hodgson, Group Commercial Director at Morrisons, said: "We are noticing more and more customers approaching our specialist butchers in store and asking them the best way to feed their families on a budget.

"Customers are sticking increasingly cooking roast dinners from scratch and our pork joints are proving to be the affordable favourite."

Louise Welsh, Agriculture Manager, said: "More of our customers are turning to these easy to cook pork joints for mealtimes and it is no surprise because pork offers everything our customers are looking for – a good quality, nutritious meal which offers value for money.

"This boost in sales is good news for our British pig farmers too. We're now buying over a million pigs a year from British farmers and only sell 100 per cent fresh British pork in our stores."

Brazil Has Fastest Food Export Growth Rate
BRAZIL - Brazil’s processed food exports are showing the fastest rate of growth among the world’s major food producers.


The fifth largest international exporter, Brazil registered an increase in the sales of these products to foreign countries of 4.8 per cent per annum for the period 2005 to 2010.

According to the GTIS (Global Trade International System), the other four producers ranked above it showed weaker growth for the same period: the US – 12 per cent, the Netherlands – 7.7 per cent, France – 5.6 per cent and Germany – 8.2 per cent.

In addition to this rate of growth, Brazilian processed food and drink exports, which reach 197 countries and accounted for US$38 billion in 2010, possesses great diversity and is also growing in quality.

Coordinated by Apex-Brasil (the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency), the Brazilian delegation to ANUGA – the world food trade fair being held between 8 and 12 October in Cologne, Germany – comprises 70 companies representing 12 sectors: beef, pork, chicken, coffee and teas, biscuits, sweets, beverages, juices, fruit, regional foods (typical Brazilian cuisine), seasonings and condiments, and food preparations.

These are sectors in which Brazil stands out and is high up in the world production and exporting rankings, not to mention offers high quality and sophisticated products that reflect an increasing concern in the industry with environmental sustainability and the health and well being of consumers.

Apex-Brasil is reinforcing its efforts made in conjunction with these sectors to promote the country’s exports by sponsoring the Brazilian presence at ANUGA. The Agency sustains export promotion projects for 80 economic sectors, benefitting 13,000 national companies.

Pork: exports are growing
Brazil exported 540,000 tons of pork in 2010 with resulting revenues of US$1.34 billion, an increase of 9.32 per cent over the year before.

The most widespread source of animal protein in the world, global production stands at 100 million tons, half of which is produced in China, with the majority of the rest produced by the EU, US and Brazil – the fourth largest producer and exporter.

The country is responsible for three per cent of worldwide production, 11 per cent of exports and has been a growing presence in the international market.

Over the last decade, its exports have been growing quickly, going from four per cent to 11 per cent of the global total. In 2008, it exported 530,000 tons and achieved record sales of US$1.4 billion.

Brazil has been seeking out new export markets for the product, complying with the various sanitation, nutritional and organoleptic (colour, flavour, odour and texture) standards.

Pork Commentary: US Exports Continue Record Pace
GLOBAL - This week's Pork Commentary from Jim Long.

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
US July exports totalled 169,549 metric tons valued at $480.06 US million – an increase of 16 per cent in volume and 24 per cent in value. This pushed the 2011 total to 1.25 million metric tons valued at $3.3 billion – increases of 14 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively, over last year.

You need to look no further than the export surge to see why US market hogs were $40 per head higher in July than last year. July pork exports were 28.7 per cent of US production, last year in July exports accounted for 23.8 per cent of total production – a five per cent increase with US total pork production basically the same year-over-year. The increase in exports reflects global pork demand while at the same time, the increase in exports cut US domestic pork supply. Bottom line: the export demand increase and lower domestic supply lead to $40 per head jump with static total pork production. Good news with corn at $7 per bushel.

We have over the last year talked of this scenario of flat US pork production, constant US domestic demand with strong global pork demand, says Mr Long. He believed it was the scenario for $1.00 lean hogs this summer, says Mr Long. Now what about the future?

As he looks at 2012, he sees little change in US pork production – maybe one per cent difference either way. US domestic demand will be relatively constant. American consumers in general have the disposable income to purchase all the meat they want. One major plus could be lower chicken and beef supply in 2012, leading both being more expensive. This could help pork cut-outs and hog market prices.

Strong pork exports are needed to keep hog prices high. Exports depend on each individual country's needs and where they have buying options. The following countries Genesus does business with and its first-hand knowledge from being on the ground that Mr Long makes the following observations.

Japan
US pork exports to Japan are at a record pace, up 14 per cent year to date at 1.1 billion. A few weeks ago, Genesus was told by Japanese hog producers they were receiving almost US$3 per lb. live weight. Most, if not all, Japan's feed needs are imported. The tsunami has cut some production, and we do not expect increased Japanese domestic supply. There is little reason to believe Japans pork exports will be lower in the next 12 months. The cheapest place for Japan to buy pork and that meets their health regulations are USA-Canada.

South Korea
Last November, Genesus predicted strong exports to South Korea after the company met with South Korean producers and understood the devastation of their foot and mouth disease. US pork exports to South Korea are triple year-to-date at $343.4 million. Market hog prices in South Korea are around US$2.50 per lb. live weight. Price is always a reflection of supply and demand. From what we can discern, South Koreans swine production will not recover in any major degree before the summer of 2012, says Mr Long. Consequently, he expects US pork exports there to stay strong to then and beyond.

Mexico
Mexican exports have been steady in value at US$561 million in the year to date. The recent decline of retaliatory duties because of US trucking regulations should be positive for enhanced US pork sales. Mexican hog producers are currently receiving approximately $40 per head more than US producers. With the drop in duties, US pork will become more competitive. Genesus sees no sign of Mexico hog production increase as high feed prices, tight credit and fear of US pork imports keeps market enthusiasm restrained.

China
Last week, China hog prices hit US$1.75 per lb. live weight! There is demand and obviously supply issues. US exports to China are $244 million for the year to date. Mr Long expects this pace will increase over the next months. Disease, small herd liquidation and high feed prices are factors that will keep supply low for several months.

Russia
The Russia government released swine inventory recently. Despite live weight hogs at US$1.35 per lb., the swine inventory did not increase over last year. Russia will continue to import large amounts of pork mostly from EU and some from Brazil. Whatever goes to Russia is not in other world markets competing with North America's pork.

European Union
EU has twice the swine production of USA-Canada. Europe's hog industry is in a degree of financial crisis. High feed prices and low margin is leading to decreased supply. Europe's pork supply for export is decreasing.

Brazil
Brazil is a major pork exporter. Brazil's market hogs are 56.26 US cents per lb. Producers are losing money. When you are losing money, you do not expand. Brazil's export supply will not be increasing in the next while, says Mr Long.

Summary – next 12 months
US–Canada swine production should be steady. US domestic pork demand should be steady with upside potential.

Japan, South Korea, Mexico and Russia are showing no signs of diminishing pork imports. US–Canada has supply, price and health. EU and Brazil, the two other major pork-exporting blocks, have decreasing supply and Brazil has export health issues. Genesus expects US hog prices will reflect the increase in global pork needs. Consequently, it expects US prices to track 10 per cent higher year-over-year.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics 

US corn exporters fear Colombia-Canada FTA
//29 Aug 2011
 Exporters of corn in the US are afraid they will lose market share in Colombia now this Latin American country has signed a free trade agreement with Canada.
 

With the implementation of the free trade agreement (FTA) between Colombia and Canada on August 15, US exports will be facing Canadian feed wheat as a new competitor for American corn.
 
 
 
US Grains Council trade sources indicate that Colombian buyers have placed orders for 125,000 mt of Canadian feed wheat in the 10 days since the agreement went into effect and as such eroding US corn sales opportunities in the Colombian corn market.
 
 
 
The ratification of a US-Colombia FTA for corn is still pending and as a result US corn is still taxed with a 15% duty. In contrast, corn from Brazil and Argentina is taxed 6.7% and now Canadian wheat is now duty-free.
 
 
 
In 2007, Colombia imported  3 million tons of corn with the United States enjoying a 93% market share. Since then the US market share has shrunk to 20% in 2010.

Sorghum has potential in Southeast Asia
//06 Sep 2011
 Sorghum is exceptionally well-suited for the tropical conditions in Southeast Asia because of its low vulnerability to moulds and mycotoxins and physical characteristics that allow it to be stored longer.
 

Two factors contribute to its current low use levels in the region, according to Adel Yusupov, US Grains Council regional director in Southeast Asia, who recently completed a ten-day sorghum promotion “road show” in Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia.
 
 
 
“Competitive pricing and consistent supply is a barrier,” he said, noting that prices for Argentine sorghum with less than 1.5% tannin were recently $45 per metric ton below Argentine corn and $54 per metric ton cheaper than US sorghum in containers.
 
 
 
Major competition in the region comes from “combo” shipments of Argentine corn and sorghum, which enjoy an additional advantage from feed millers’ preference for Argentine corn over US corn.
 
 
 
Yellow colour
 
A second barrier, according to Yusupov, is regional consumers’ preference for very yellow yolks, fat, and skin in swine and poultry products.
 
 
 
“It would be difficult to convince poultry or pig producers to switch to sorghum (which produces whiter fat in pigs and paler poultry),” he said. “In contrast, there is not the same preference in fish fillets, and the Council believes this is a ready niche market opportunity for sorghum in Southeast Asia.”
 
 
 
He believes progress on sorghum use in the region can be achieved by promoting sorghum to aquaculture feed producers and nutritionists.