Feed Outlook – October 2011
World coarse grain production in 2011/12 is projected to reach 1,136.3 million tons, up 5.1 million this month as increases in other countries swamp the decline in the US, according to the latest report from the USDA Economic Research Service.
 

Increased Corn Supplies Reduce Price Prospects
The 30 September Grain Stocks report issued by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) showed sharply higher-than-expected 1 September stocks for corn. Despite a 64-million-bushel reduction to 2011/12 forecast corn production this month with lower reported area, the 209-million-bushel gain in carry-in over the previous forecast boosts 2011/12 corn supplies, resulting in a 30-cent-per-bushel decline in the projected farm price. Increased US beginning stocks and increased foreign production combine to boost world coarse grain supplies 10 million tons this month. Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2011/12 are increased six million tons this month to 156 million, mostly on higher expected corn ending stocks in the United States. US corn ending stocks are still projected to be the lowest since 1995/96, and world corn stocks remain projected at a five-year low.


DOMESTIC OUTLOOK

Corn Carry-out Stocks for 2010/11 Higher Than Expected
The 30 September NASS Grain Stocks report indicated 1 September US corn stocks of 1,128 million bushels, an increase of 209 million bushels from the September WASDE forecast. Still, ending stocks for 2010/11 are 580 million bushels lower than the previous year. The stocks data and nearly final data for other domestic use and trade imply a fourth quarter feed and residual use of only 448 million bushels, the lowest quarterly corn feed use going back as far as comparable data are available (1975/76). However, annual feed and residual for 2010/11, at 4.80 billion bushels, is neither unusually large nor unusually small, coming in as the 17th largest in the last 35 years even as the use of distillers’ dried grains has slowed the direct use of corn for feed.

Because the feed and residual category includes residual use, statistical errors in other supply and demand measures show up in the residual usage. A number of factors could contribute to the exceptionally low fourth quarter feed and residual estimate, however, all such factors are speculative and not necessarily supportable by available data. Among possible factors that could explain the lower-than-expected fourth quarter feed and residual use would be (1) the impact of higher prices on usage, (2) early usage of new-crop 2011/12 corn, (3) tighter pipeline (in transit) supplies and (4) higher quality of 2010-crop corn compared with 2009-crop.

Although none of these potential explanations are definitive and even together may not fully explain all of the reduction year-to-year in feed and residual disappearance during the last half of the 2010/11 marketing year, these factors do merit some discussion.

High corn prices encourage less use and more efficient use. Cash bid prices for corn in Central Illinois were above $6 per bushel from mid-March through August, topping $7 per bushel several times over those months.


Some new-crop corn is harvested before 1 September each year and the increase in southern corn production in recent years has allowed for more harvesting ahead of the new crop year. Still, State-level harvest progress reports do not indicate as much early new-crop availability as last year or as in summer 2007, and only somewhat higher than during late-summer 2008 and 2009. New-crop corn use ahead of 1 September boosts 1 September stocks, not by their inclusion in reported stocks, which are for old-crop corn but by replacing old-crop corn in usage and allowing that old-crop corn to be counted in stocks.


Pipeline supplies, including corn in transit, may be difficult to measure and vary with levels of usage, including exports. The slow pace of September corn exports – down about 50 million bushels from the previous year – suggests that less corn than usual was in transit, leaving more corn in more visible storage positions.


Higher corn test-weights or other quality factors for 2010 crop corn could reduce the amount of corn needed to produce a unit of meat or gallon of ethanol. Available data to support year-to-year variations in corn quality are limited with test-weight data only available for inspected grain and no reliable data series available on actual corn-to-ethanol conversion rates. Also, higher feeding or ethanol conversion rates for 2010-crop corn would fail to fully explain the 2010/11 quarterly pattern of feed and residual use with higher usages year-to-year in the first and second quarters.
Acreage Reduction Reduces Feed Grain Production, Yields Steady
US feed grain production for 2011/12 is forecast at 326.2 million tons, down from 328.1 million predicted last month. The month-to-month decrease reflects reduced forecast production for corn and sorghum and smaller production estimates for barley and oats from the Small Grains 2011 Summary report. Planted area for the four grains is decreased 520,000 acres, and harvested for grain acres were decreased 553,000 acres this month. Yields per harvested acre for the four grains combined are unchanged at 3.56 metric tons. Beginning stocks in 2011/12 are raised to 32.3 million tons, based on the 30 September Grain Stocks report. Total 2011/12 feed grain supply is forecast at 360.6 million tons, up from 357.3 million last month and down from 380.5 million in 2010/11.

Total 2011/12 feed grain utilisation is projected at 336.1 million tons, down from 337.6 million projected last month and down from 348.2 million in 2010/11. The month-to month decline is entirely from lower corn exports. Lower sorghum exports were offset by an increase in feed and residual, leaving total sorghum use unchanged. Total projected feed grain ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 4.9 million tons to 24.5 million, mainly reflecting higher carry-in from the 2010/11 crop.


Feed Use
On a September-August marketing year basis for 2011/12, US feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat is projected to total 128.3 million tons, down 1.5 million from the revised total of 129.8 million tons in 2010/11. Corn is estimated to account for 93 per cent of feed and residual use in 2011/12, down from 94 per cent in 2010/11.

The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) in 2011/12 is 94.2 million units, up from 92.9 million in 2010/11. Feed and residual per GCAU in 2011/12 is estimated at 1.36 tons, down from 1.40 in 2010/11. In the index components, GCAUs are increased for beef, dairy, pork and poultry.

USDA’s 19 September Milk Production report indicated milk production in the 23 major producing States during August totalled 15.3 billion pounds, up 2.2 per cent from August 2010. Production per cow averaged 1,810 pounds for August, 18 pounds above last year. However, the number of milk cows on farms increased by 102,000 head from August 2009 to 8.47 million. The milk production forecast for 2011 is raised as the dairy herd has been expanding at a more rapid rate and milk per cow during the summer increased more rapidly than expected. However, the forecast for 2012 is reduced as forecast lower milk prices and weakening milk-feed ratios increase the pace of later-year declines in cow numbers.

US hog breeding inventory in the third quarter of 2011 was at 5.81 million head, up one per cent from last year and up slightly from the previous quarter according to USDA’s 28 September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Market hogs inventory, at 66.6 million head, was up one per cent from last year. As the result of lower market inventory, lower slaughter and slower growth in slaughter weights, the 2011 pork production forecast is reduced. Intended farrowings from December 2011 to February 2012, at 2.87 million sows, are down slightly from the same period a year earlier but up slightly from December 2009-February 2010 based on the report. Pork production for 2012 is raised from last month as increased pigs per litter support a larger pig crop and increased supplies of slaughter hogs into 2012 despite steady numbers of sows farrowing.

USDA’s Broiler Hatchery report on 7 October indicated that broiler-type egg sets and chicks placed have been decreasing. Cumulative placements of broiler flock are down seven per cent from the same period a year earlier. Broiler production is reduced as lower egg sets point to a sharp reduction in later-year bird slaughter. However, continued relatively heavy bird weights result in an increase in expected third-quarter production. Table egg production is increased but is partly offset by lower expected broiler hatching egg production.

Egg-type chicks hatched and pullet chicks for future hatchery supply have been increasing based on USDA’s 22 September Chickens and Eggs report. Table egg production is increased.

USDA’s 15 September Turkey Hatchery report indicated that during August 2011, turkey poults hatched were up four per cent from the year earlier but net poults placed were 100,000 below August 2010. The 2011 turkey production projection is 15 million pounds higher than last month’s but the turkey meat forecast for 2012 is unchanged from last month as lower feed prices stabilise turkey production.

USDA’s 23 September Cattle on Feed report indicated that placements and marketings of feed cattle during August both increased five per cent above a year earlier. The increase in beef production is largely due to higher expected cow slaughter as drought conditions in much of the Southern Plains and high hay prices will likely keep slaughter high.

Minor Changes Made to 2010/11 Crop Year
The following changes are made to the 2010/11 balance sheets:

Corn: feed and residual use is lowered 197 million bushels to 4,803 million this month based on 1 September stocks; food, seed and industrial (FSI) use is lowered 15 million bushels to 6,415 million, reflecting lower-than-expected 4th quarter HFCS consumption due to reduced demand for soft drinks and small decreases in some other FSI uses; corn exports are unchanged from September at 1,835 million bushels; ending stocks are raised 208 million bushels to 1,128 million bushels, based on the 1 September stocks estimate. The farm price per bushel was lowered $0.02 per bushel to $5.18.

Sorghum: feed and residual is lowered 0.8 million bushels to 124.2 million due to reduced ending stocks of 27.5 million, based on the 1 September stocks estimate; and the farm price per bushel was lowered $0.13 to $5.02.

Barley: feed and residual use was raised slightly to 49.8 million bushels due to lower ending stocks.

Oats: feed and residual use was lowered slightly to 102.2 million bushels on a 24,000-bushel increase in ending stocks.

2011/12 Corn Crop Slips on Lower Harvested Acreage and Yields Steady
US corn production is forecast at 12,433 million bushels for 2011/12, down 64 million bushels from last month. Yields are unchanged and forecast harvested acreage was reduced 452,000 acres to 83.9 million. As forecast, this year’s production would be the fourth highest on record behind 2009, 2007, and 2010. Beginning stocks are raised to 1,128 million bushels, up 208 million from last month based on reported 1 September stocks.

The 1 October corn objective yield data indicate the second highest number of ears per acre on record for the combined 10 objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin), only behind the record year of 2009. Record-high ear counts are forecast in Iowa, Illinois, Ohio and Wisconsin.

 


Feed and residual use is unchanged at 4,700 million bushels, reflecting the effects of relatively high corn prices. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 1,600 million as a result of increased export competition, especially from the Ukraine. Corn used for ethanol production in 2011/12 was unchanged this month at 5,000 million bushels, based on anticipated fuel demand. Total utilisation is projected at 12,710 million bushels, down 50 million from last month and 343 million below 2010/11.

Ending stocks are raised sharply this month by 194 million bushels. Nevertheless, at a projected 866 million bushels, 2011/12 ending stocks would be the lowest since 1995/96 (426 million bushels). Projected stocks drop to less than 25 days of expected use. Increased supplies due to higher carry-in result in lower expected corn prices, with the 2011/12 forecast price reduced 30 cents on both ends of the range to $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel. These price forecasts are still far above the record 2010/11 actual price of $5.18 per bushel.

Sorghum Production Cut
US production is forecast at 244 million bushels, down 294,000 bushels from last month and 101 million below last year. Based on updated administrative information, acreage changes were made in several States. Planted area is estimated at 5.5 million acres, up 122,000 acres from the previous forecast and up 63,000 from 2010/11. Harvested area is forecast at 4.4 million acres, down 44,000 acres from the previous forecast and 376,000 acres below last year. If realised, this will be the lowest harvested acreage on record since 1936. Based on 1 October conditions, yield is forecast at 55.0 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushels from September and down 16.8 bushels from last year. Sustained hot weather and drought has affected major producing regions. With a one-million-bushel increase in beginning stocks, total supply for 2011/12 is projected at 271 million bushels, down 491,000 from last month, reflecting increased carry-in partly offset by lower production.

 


Projected total utilisation is 245 million bushels, unchanged from last month and down 114 million from 2010/11. Feed and residual use is expected to be 10 million bushels higher this month and forecast export demand slips 10 million bushes as the pace of export sales has been slow. Exports are expected to total 100 million bushels, down from 150 million in 2011/12. Ending stocks for 2011/12 were raised 0.5 million bushels this month to 26 million.

The expected sorghum season-average price was lowered $0.30 on both ends of the range to $6.00-$7.00 per bushel, compared to the revised $5.02 per bushel for 2010/11. This sharp year-to-year increase in expected price reflects the smaller corn and sorghum crops and tighter feed grain supplies.

GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS - Asia: The Major Chicken Meat Importer

More than one-third of the chicken meat traded globally is imported into Asian countries, according to seasoned industry watcher, Terry Evans. Only two countries in the region – Thailand and China – export significant amounts of broiler meat.


 




Asia is the major chicken meat-importing region purchasing around 4.7 million tonnes of a global total of between 11 and 12 million tonnes. This latter figures not only includes trade between European Union member countries, exports of paws and also the application of factors to convert the tonnages of further-processed and canned chicken to whole bird equivalents.

Exports from this region, although small at about 1.3 million tonnes, are growing steadily.

Global trading in poultry meat is expanding and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Trying to unravel the data is a nightmare as no series of figures are identical, further underlining the point that, as with the figures on production, it is best to put greater emphasis on the trends than on the absolute values quoted.

Looking at the data presented in table 1, it must be appreciated that, in the world total figures the trade between European Union member countries is not included, while purchases of chicken paws have also been excluded from the import data. A further complication, which can lead to double counting, occurs when shipments from one country are re-exported to another. Again, a balance may not be struck between exports and imports in a period of time because of the time lag during transportation.
 


Indeed, if account is taken of all these factors the quantity of chicken meat traded currently is at least 11 million tonnes. It is clear from this USDA series that the global trade in chicken meat has grown substantially since 2000 as the world total has risen by 84 per cent from 4.9 million tonnes to almost nine million tonnes. Forecast growth for 2011, however, is a mere 1.4 per cent and at least one projection to 2020 points to further only moderate increases at a similar rate as the global total on this basis climbs towards 10 million tonnes.

For the Asian countries reviewed in table 1, combined total imports represent approximately 31 per cent of the global trade as purchases in 2011 are expected to exceed 2.7 million tonnes, which would be almost 850,000 tonnes (44 per cent) higher than 10 years ago. It should be noted that a significant proportion of the imports into Hong Kong are eventually re-exported to China. If chicken paws were included in the figures, then in 2010, these countries would account for almost 35 per cent of the business.
 



Leading chicken meat importers in Asia ('000 tonnes)

Japan is the leading importer though the provisional figure for the annual total in 2010 was little changed from the quantity purchased back in 2000, and is at a similar level to that anticipated for the next decade. However, the forecast for the current year has been revised upwards to around 820,000 tonnes, reflecting the impact of the earthquake and tsunami on production in the short term. Roughly half of Japan's imports are prepared (cooked or semi-cooked) chicken mainly from Thailand and China. On the frozen side of the trade, the bulk of supplies mainly destined for the food service sector, is purchased from Brazil. In 2010, the total imported in this category was around 420,000 tonnes, of which, almost 380,000 tonnes were purchased from Brazil and a little over 34,000 tonnes from the USA.

A growing import market is Saudi Arabia. In the period 2000 to 2006, receipts were below 500,000 tonnes a year. Since then, they have risen annually to an estimated near 680,000 tonnes last year, while a forecast for 2010 points to more than 700,000 tonnes being bought. Also, predictions for the next decade foresee imports rising to above 800,000 tonnes and again to more than 900,000 tonnes by 2025. To date, Brazil has been the major supplier.

Chicken imports into China reached a record high in 2008 at just over one million tonnes, nearly 645,000 tonnes of which were chicken paws. Purchases declined in 2009 and again in 2010 to 832,000 tonnes in total with paws accounting for 546,000 tonnes. In 2011, a further 10 per cent decline in purchases to around 750,000 tonnes is anticipated, with paws accounting for around 500,000 tonnes as the result of duties being imposed on US chicken meat. Hence, broiler meat imports (excluding paws) are expected to slump a further 20 per cent to around 230,000 tonnes. Before 2010, the US was the leading supplier of both broiler meat and paws to this market, followed by Brazil and Argentina. However, the latter two have taken on increasingly important roles as America's shipments slumped in 2010.

Rising consumer incomes, and an improved business environment have been reflected in a growing demand for imported chicken in Iraq, the annual total rising from virtually nothing in the early 2000s to an estimated 374,000 tonnes in 2009. The leading suppliers to this market were the US with chicken parts, Brazil with whole birds and Turkey. It is believed that some US poultry exports to Turkey are re-exported to Iraq.

Brazil is again the major supplier to the growing market in the United Arab Emirates.

Considerable quantities of the exports to Hong Kong are re-routed to China.
 


Only Two Exporters
 
Asia is not a major exporting region with total shipments currently amounting to around one million tonnes a year. There are only two significant exporters – Thailand and China. The prospects are good for a further expansion in sales from these two countries. It is possible that both Indonesia and Viet Nam will play more important roles in the future, while both India and Turkey could also feature in this business.
 



Leading chicken meat exporters in Asia ('000 tonnes)
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Exports from Thailand have recovered well since several importing countries imposed bans on shipments of Thai frozen products. Having switched to the production of cooked or semi-cooked products, Thai exports have escalated to around 475,000 tonnes a year. No other chicken industry is as highly dependent on the export market. In 2010, shipments totalled 435,000 tonnes, of which 418,000 tonnes were further processed, while just 17,000 tonnes were uncooked. Japan was the main single destination accounting for 44 per cent of sales, with the European Union taking almost 46 per cent. A further sizeable expansion in sales is envisaged for 2011, pushing the total to some 475,000 tonnes, with increased trade within Asia, in particular to Japan, ASEAN countries, Hong Kong and South Korea. According to a recent USDA Gain report, it is believed that several importing countries are likely to lift a ban on Thai uncooked frozen chicken meat. Countries that have already removed a ban include Hong Kong, South Africa, Bahrain and Russia. While the Russian authorities have approved several Thai processing plants for exports, no sales have taken place to date.

China has become more active in export markets in recent years though the total quantities involved are still below those recorded in 2000/01 (table 1). The main markets are Japan and also Hong Kong where consumers are starting to transfer their purchases from live broilers to fresh/chilled portions. Of the 412,000 tonnes exported in 2010, more than 90 per cent went to three markets, with nearly 204,000 tonnes (49.5 per cent) being bought by Japan, 145,000 tonnes (35 per cent) by Hong Kong and 23,000 tonnes (six per cent) by Malaysia.

The most recent trade data for every country is given in tables 2 and 3. Although the figures are for 2008, they give a good indication of the volumes traded by the smaller players.

October 2011

Another year will be closing soon and a new year begins.This year was the start of the foundation work for our own made in the Philippines dual purpose goat,the RP Genemaxer,breeding plan and stratergy in place long before the work started.

Group A were does taken from nubians,Group B were does taken from hybrids.Both groups bred to a purebred Saanen buck to make the Snubian.Very good birth weights for both groups.Selected line breeding will take place in 2012 and the selected does from this group will go on to be bred to an island born purebred Alpine buck,for extended lactations and higher milk fat.In 2012 we will secure an island born purebreed Alpine buck out of known dairy lines.The very last breed to enter this picture will be purebred Boer bucks to increase muscle for meat production.

Our end result will be a multi layered level or 5 breed dual purpose goat with a lacatation twice that of meat types,making to goat viable for milk production and have enough muscle to be worth its weight for meat production.It was always my belief through my years of experience and consulting with others in this industry that the goat or goats that wil perform the best in the country will come from crossbreeds or hybrids over the average purebreeds.On the other hand it takes purebreeds to make the end result.We feel confindent that we have made the right choice with our plan for a made in the Philippines dual purpose goat having value for both milk and meat.From a management point of view,easier to take care of one breed over many breeds.We look forward to our end result for the future of this industry.

Mustang Sally Farm
R7,D1 Independant Meat Goat Producers Union

Doc
The country is still importing goats and sheep.This past Oct.10-13 another shipment arrived from the USA under 300 heads from the PL480 program.The Govt. is still buying goats and sheep.True,this is a small industry compared to the hog,poultry and aquaculture industries but it has real promise as goat meat consumption rose by about 8%  last year.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Pork Producers Urge Special Corn Importation Permit
PHILIPPINES - A group of local pork producers has asked the Department of Agriculture (DA) to issue a special import permit for corn to drive down domestic prices, which soared following a string of typhoons.


In a letter to Agriculture Secretary Proceso Alcala, the Pork Producers Federation of the Philippines Inc. requested a special import permit at zero tariff for six months.

"If the 35 per cent tariff on imported corn is lifted for six months, our organization can purchase cheaper produce and distribute this to our members," said Edwin Chen, president of Pro-pork.

According to The Manila Times.net, Mr Chen said lower corn prices would help stabilize livestock feed prices, as well as maintain current pricing of pork and meat products.

He said the group is looking to import at least 50,000 metric tons of corn to drive down prices in the domestic market, which remain artificially high because of reported "damages" brought by typhoons Pedring and Quiel.

Corn is the main staple for hog feeds, and an increase in prices would also drive higher the prices of meat products.

It makes up 50 per cent to 60 per cent of animal feed formulation while soybean, which provides protein, makes up 20 per cent to 25 per cent. Fishmeal, another source of protein, vitamins and minerals, accounts for the balance.

To date, the average price of corn reached P15 per kilo, higher than the P12 per kilo that hog raisers used to pay.

"The high corn price is already taking a toll on the swine industry because of its domino effect on production cost," Mr Chen said.

The executive also said that if the prices of corn will not stabilize soon, this would result in losses for hog farmers who are still reeling form the devastating effects of natural disasters and disease.

"This may even force the closure of several hog farms, especially those among the backyard producers who do not have the capital to shoulder the additional cost," Mr Chen said.

He asked Mr Alcala to reassure hog raisers that the country has enough corn stocks to meet the requirement, and file charges against traders manipulating prices.

"According to reports, 90 per cent of corn crops have already been harvested before the typhoon. So why is it that prices are still going up? What we want is to at least drive down prices with the special importation," Mr Chen said. He said Pro-pork is already in talks with the Philippine Association of Feed Millers Inc. (PAFMI) for the said importation.

Earlier, PAFMI said they were "keeping their options open" for the possible importation of corn feeds early next year because of the reported damage to crops by two recent typhoons.

Norman Ramos, PAFMI president, said they are seeking an official report from the DA on the extent of the damage in the corn sector.

"Our concern will focus on the actual standing crop damaged by the typhoons and how much is submerged by the floods because over a period of time, this corn will deteriorate," Mr Ramos said.

"If the corn quality is questionable, then we will decide whether we will import," the executive said.

The DA earlier said that over 90 per cent of corn crops were harvested before typhoons Pedring and Quiel hit the country, while the remaining 10 per cent can still be recovered using dry facilities provided to those who were affected by floods.

But Mr Ramos, who is also the vice president and general manager of the feeds business of San Miguel Foods Inc., said there was no assurance from the DA that the harvested corn crops were properly dried, which may potentially compromise its quality.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Pork Commentary: US Meat Production for 2012
US - This week, Jim long writes about the US red meat and poultry price projections for 2012.
 

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
Lower or no profit margins are pushing US total red meat and poultry production lower. The USDA projects over a billion less pounds in 2012 will be produced compared to 2011.

USDA Projected Production
(million pounds 2012)
  2011 2012
Beef 26420 25135
Pork 22660 23074
Chicken 36942 36604
Turkey 5717 5660
Total Red Meat and Poultry 92559 91283

An increase in US population and a small increase in exports have USDA projecting in 2012, 201 pounds of red meat and poultry per capita disappearance down seven pounds per capita in two years.

Less protein available will be price enhancing for pork producers. Lean hog futures reaching over $1.00 a pound is a strong reflection of the market place expecting ever stronger prices.

CME April Live Cattle closed last Friday at $128.15 a pound up from $1.06 almost a year ago. That is an increase of about $250 per head. Higher cattle prices will absolutely pull lean hogs higher, as the USDA projects the 2012 beef supply 5 per cent lower year over year.

We remain quite optimistic of strong lean hog prices through the summer of 2012. The wild card is feed costs as they go up and down in huge price swings. This past week corn jumped 40 cents a bushel while soybeans climbed $1.00 per bushel. The insanity of corn ethanol continues to wreak havoc on swine production cost structure.

Spain
This past week we had visitors from Spain.

Spanish producers are receiving about 75 cents US per pound (1.20 Euros per kilogram).


Producers in Spain are feeling strong economic pressures as only the best can make any money at current prices.


The cost of feed in Spain is such that about $140 is needed to produce a market hog.


Spanish producers are looking for productivity improvements as a way for them to survive. Genesus is glad to report that we are establishing a production facility in Spain to have Genesus Genetics available for the domestic market.


The European Swine Industry is under intense pressure. The industry is contracting. A report from The Netherlands last week indicated that Dutch based Topigs Genetic Company lost in the first six months of 2011 138 customers (33,000 sows). Topigs explained that they expect their gilt sales in The Netherlands will decline 27,000 gilts per year. This is a tough time for Topig.


Kicking Topigs when they were down was the President of Netherlands based Hypor (Hendrix Genetics) Antoon Van den Berg who said in a Dutch interview "The farmers are not happy with Topigs at all, the slaughter hogs cannot keep up with the hogs from the competition breeding companies." It seems to us the Dutch Swine Genetic Industry must be a blood sport. In the same interview, Hypor President Mr. Van den Berg was asked "Why is it not possible for Hypor to get more market share in the Netherlands?" He replied: "Hypor didn’t have market share in the gilt sales in the past, the image from Hypor not good at all, this is still hurting us."
As a competitor we have to admit we find it amusing when another competitor falls on their own sword while confronting their own brutal facts.

Bottom line: Intense competition in the Swine Genetic Industry pushes genetics forward which helps producers to lower the cost of production, increase productivity, and profit potential. I have to say the scenario is stimulation and challenging – but never boring!


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics 

Wednesday, October 19, 2011P
Weekly Roberts Market Report
US - Dairy and live cattle futures finished up on Monday whereas soybean finished down and corn and wheat futures finished mixed, writes Michael T. Roberts.

Michael T. Roberts
Extension Agriculture Economist,
Dairy and Commodity Marketing,
NC State University

LEAN HOGS on the CME closed up on Monday with the exception of the May 2012 and June 2012 contracts. The DEC’11LH contract closed at $90.700/cwt; up $0.625/cwt and $2.950/cwt over last report.

MAY’12LH futures closed at $98.900/cwt; off $0.200/cwt but $o.550/cwt higher than a week ago. Hog futures were supported by news that Congress had passed free trade agreements with Panama, Colombia, and South Korea. Pit sources agree that these agreements hold a lot of promise for increased exports.

USDA on Monday put the lean hog carcass price at $99.06; up $0.35. According to HedgersEdge.com, the average packer margin was raised $4.35/hd from last report to a positive $6.35/head based on the average buy of $68.80/cwt vs. the average breakeven of $71.17/cwt.

CORN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) finished mixed on Monday. The DEC’11 contract closed at $6.404/bu; up 0.5 ¢ /bu and 35.5 ¢ /bu over a week ago.

MAR’12 futures closed at $6.512/bu; down 0.25 ¢ /bu but 33.75 ¢ /bu higher than this time last week. The DEC’12 contract closed up 1.5 ¢ /bu at $6.032/bu and 31.0 ¢ /bu higher than a week ago.

A firm US dollar kept prices stable, and chart resistance kept prices in check. Late Monday USDA put the US corn harvest at 47 per cent complete vs. the five-year average of 41 per cent for this time of year.

Export news lagged. USDA on Monday said it wouldn’t release corn-inspected-for-export numbers until Tuesday 10/18. Industry estimates range from 30 to 38 mi bu. USDA last week reduced supply / demand estimates by 64 mi bu due to reduced planted and harvested acres; 91.9 mi ac and 83.9 mi ac respectively.

Yield estimates remained unchanged at 148.1 bu/ac. U.S. corn use was reduced by 50 mi bu. Total US corn production was put at 12.433 bi bu. Ending stocks were placed at 8.6 mi bu, an increase of 194 mi bu from the September 2011 estimate.

Corn prices show downward price trend in the short run as funds and large speculators take profits on short covering and long-liquidation.

SOYBEAN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed down on Monday. NOV’11 soybean futures closed 17.0 ¢ /bu lower at $12.530/bu but 75.75 ¢ /bu over a week ago.

The MAR’12 contract closed at $12.676/bu; off 18.0 ¢ /bu but 70.0 ¢ /bu higher than this time last week. News that the troublesome kudzu bug that eats kudzu, as well as soybeans, is invading southern soybean fields was supportive.

University of Georgia researchers say the voracious pest is adaptable and is spreading both north and west. A firm dollar, higher crude oil, short covering, and long liquidation in profit taking weighed on prices. Lack of confirmation that China purchased large quantities of US soybeans also contributed to Monday’s price weakness.

USDA placed the US soybean harvest at 69 per cent vs. the five-year average of 61 per cent and 81 per cent this time last year.

Showers this week should slow the US soybean harvest. Analysts expect soybean exports to come in at 35-40 mi bu. USDA will publish those figures on Tuesday, 11/18. Last week USDA reduced harvested US soybean acres 0.1 mi ac to 73.7 mi ac and also reduced the US yield estimate for soybeans to 41.5 mi bu/ac.

This resulted in an estimate of 3.060 bi bu; 25 mi bu less than the September forecast. Ending stocks were reduced five mi bu to 160 mi bu. Technical signals show upside potential and those should materialise if export news is positive from China.

WHEAT futures in Chicago (CBOT) closed mixed on Monday. The DEC’11 contract closed at $6.242/bu; up 1.5 ¢ /bu and 12.75 ¢ /bu higher than last report.

JULY’12 wheat futures finished at $6.966/bu; down 0.5 ¢ /bu but 13.75 ¢ /bu higher than this time last week. Forecasts for dry weather were supportive.

A firm US dollar limited prices. Export estimates ranged from 16-21 mi bu. USDA’s export report normally released on Monday’s at 11:00 am EST was delayed until Tuesday. There is upside potential in the short run.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Viet Nam Hog Markets
VIET NAM - This week's global hog market report focuses on Viet Nam and has been prepared by Ron Lane, Senior Consultant Genesus China and Genesus Viet Nam and Meggie Vo, Research Assistant.
 

During the time-frame from 1996 to 2006, Viet Nam’s pork production more than doubled (132 per cent). This illustrates rapid growth – not mainly with large scale farms, but through constant growth from small farms, specialised pig households and the large scale farms.

The larger scale commercial farms are concentrated around the two largest markets – Ho Chi Minh (HCM) City and Hanoi.

The results of recent Living Survey by the General Statistics Office (GSO), shows per capita income per month throughout the country in 2010 reached 1.387 million dong (VND; US$66.68), up 39.4 per cent over 2008. In particular, urban areas reached VND2.129 million ($102.36 US/month), up 32.7 per cent and rural areas reached VND1.07 million ($51.44 per month), up 40.4 per cent over 2008. With the improvement in income, especially from rural areas, the demand for meat consumption in this sector will also increase.

Situation in September 2011
Ministry of Industry and Trade reports for this year that the country will produce 2.26 to 2.38 million tonnes of pork. The total consumption of pork is estimated to be between 2.4 and 2.5 million tonnes. The shortfall will be covered by pork meat imports in the range from three to five per cent. This will not significantly affect domestic supply.

During the last week of September, the price for live pigs has dropped from VND2,000 to VND3,000 per kg (US$0.10 to $0.14/kg) as compared to the previous two weeks. Provinces around Hanoi have market pig prices ranging from VND57,000 to VND59,000 per kg ($2.74 to $2.84/kg) live weight. Recent reports from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MOARD), have the live price range for pigs in the northern parts of Viet Nam ranging from VND48,000 to VND58,000 per kg ($2.31 to $2.79/kg) – down 10.9 per cent from last month, while in the southern area (Ho Chi Minh), the live pig prices are ranging from VND48,000 to VND55,000 per kg ($2.31 to $2.64/kg) – down 8.9 per cent from August. In September, and looking nationwide, the live price of pigs has dropped an average of 10 per cent as compared to August. Current prices have dropped from the peak of July 2011 by around 18 per cent

During the first two weeks of October, the price of market pigs should continue to decline with price ranging from VND55,000 to VND57,000 per kg ($2.64 to $2.74/kg) in the North; VND52,000 to VND54,000 per kg ($2.50 to $2.60/kg) in the Central region; VND50,000 to VND52,000 per kg ($2.40 to $2.50/kg) and VND47,000 to VND49,000 per kg ($2.26 to $2.36/kg).

Pig prices have been decreasing for several reasons:

Supply of pigs in the north is increasing again.
Cooler weather has vastly increased productivity and growth rates.
Presence and impact of major diseases such as PRRS and FMD has been reduced and thus higher survivability means more pigs coming to market.
When the price in Hanoi was high, more pigs and pork moved to the north from the south, but with an increase in northern supply, less meat moves and supply in the south increases.
Flooding in the western areas caused farmers to sell pigs at various weights. This increased the supply of pork and thus assisted in reducing prices.
Aquatic food sources are currently larger during the past few months (summer time) and thus this supply puts pressure on other meat prices and demand.
A lowering of market prices hastens the farmers to sell at lighter weights in order to capture higher returns. For example, farmers were recently selling pigs at 105-115 kg live weight/pig. Now, producers are selling at lighter weights at around 90 to 95 kg live weight/pig.
During the past few months, traders were collecting pigs from the northern areas and were exporting pigs to China via Mong Cai in Quang Ninh province (Mong Cai is a border city with Guangxi province in China). However, recently, the traders were having problems with the general procedures-customs, high temperatures, having pigs sit too long on the trucks and trying to handle larger volumes. As a result, many were experiencing losses.
Many pork producers (of all sizes and scale) have mentioned that because of the impact of the disease occurrence of late 2010 and early in 2011, this caused the national herd to be pulled back by 3.7 per cent and that sow numbers were shrunk by 8.6 per cent (currently, new outbreaks out FMD have been identified in a Northern and Central province). Plus, this reduction of sow numbers that was mainly caused by diseases, also leads to reduced piglet production and thus eventually, fewer market pigs. This leads to the next cause: the large increase in weaner pig prices. So as any farmer and looking at large price increases for replacement breeding stock and weaner pigs; large increases in the price of feed; rising cost of electricity, water, labor, vaccine costs and transportation and disease still a major concern, then you can see the reluctance in ‘jumping’ back into production.

All of the above causes that are mentioned, are also influenced by the shortage of capital and credit. Interest rates are too high (ranging from 16.5 per cent to 25 per cent per annum) and are not as major a burden for the larger pig farms but the small farmers dare not (or cannot) borrow from banks because the livestock sector investment is also considered too risky.

Both farmers and consumers, consider that traders and slaughterhouse owners are contributing to the price spread. Looking at the price differences between the farmer’s price per pig and the selling price of pork, are pork prices being inflated by the intermediate traders and slaughterhouses? For example, are they pushing prices because they buy from the farmers at around VND60,000 to VND62,000 per kg ($2.88 to $2.98/kg) live weight but the pork is charged upwards of VND100,000 to VND130,000 per kg ($4.81 to $6.25/kg)?

Even though, all of these factors are included, actually with the current meat prices, farmers can profit from VND12,000 to VND22,000 per kg ($0.58 to $1.06/kg).

As pig prices increase, then consumers have to pay more for special cuts. Data from Hanoi Department of Statistics has looked at year-over-year prices for pork. In July 2010, the price of pork was only VND45,000 to VND70,000 per kg ($2.16 to $3.37/kg), depending upon the cut of the meat. By December 2010, the price of pork in Hanoi was on the threshold of VND70,000 to VND90,000 per kg ($3.37 to $4.33/kg) and up by 25 to 50 per cent per kg. Another six months later and the price is pushed up to VND110,000 to VND130,000 per kg ($5.29 to $6.25/kg). Thus, within a year, the price of pork in the markets in Hanoi has increased about 100 per cent.

Meat prices in the domestic market especially in the Hanoi city market is growing rapidly and sharply in recent years, causing huge pressure on the consumer price index (CPI) in July and the CPI for the first nine months of 2011 (in August, the CPI had jumped by 23.02 per cent as compared to August 2010 with food prices surging by 27.87 per cent year-on-year). For example, retail price of hams in the Hanoi markets and in the first two weeks in July have increased 2.3 times higher (approximately 130 per cent) over the same period one year ago. Meanwhile, in Ho Chi Minh, retail meat prices have increased only 1.4 times (approximately 40 per cent). Ho Chi Minh, which is commonly known to have a higher retail price than Hanoi market, has seen a reverse in this trend in the last months of 2010 and is continuing throughout 2011. The difference between the price of pork between Hanoi as compared to Ho Chi Minh is more than VND20,000 per kg ($0.96/kg).

In particular, Ho Chi Minh proved far superior to Hanoi on the basis of specialised fresh food markets (19 compared with two in Hanoi). With these strengths, the sales stabilisation of Ho Chi Minh has a stronger effect than the sales in Hanoi. Ho Chi Minh has three major pork suppliers that dominate the market (Vissan, Saigon Coop, and Sagrifood). They have contributed significantly in curbing the rise of the pork prices. Meanwhile in Hanoi, the traditional retail channel (market roadside stands and small wet markets) still dominate. These channels have little control over prices and greater psychological impact. When the Hanoi market sees any market fluctuations, (the change in the price of gold, dollar exchange, rising gasoline, electricity, coal and other factors0), then with certainty, the retail meat prices will be increased even though the supply or demand does not significantly change. This will ensure the profitability of small businesses owners.

CP Viet Nam Livestock Corporation (CP) has set a target to double its breeding sow herd from the current 180,000 sows (at the end of 2011) to the new target of 350,000 sows by the end of 2015. This is an annual growth of 20 per cent. CP mentions that the country’s pig industry is at risk because of disease and that 80 per cent of the pigs are raised in backyard farms where biosecurity is very poor.

Genesus Global Market Report
Prices for week of 10 October 2011
Country Domestic price
(own currency) US$
(per pound liveweight)
USA (Iowa-Minnesota) 91.17¢
US$/lb carcass 67.46¢
Canada (Ontario) 1.73
C$/kg carcass 62.19¢
Mexico (DF) 20.90
MXP/kg liveweight 71.55¢
Brazil (south region) 2.53
BRR/kg liveweight 65.78¢
Russia 90
RUB/kg liveweight $1.30
China 18.53
RMB/kg liveweight $1.31
Spain 1.20
€/kg liveweight 75.04¢

Wednesday, October 19, 2011
China's Farm Produce Prices Down
CHINA - Farm produce prices in China fell in the week ending 16 October compared to the previous week, the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said in a report released yesterday.


The price of pork fell 1.2 per cent and beef was down 0.4 per cent.

The price of eggs continued to drop for a third week as supplies increased. The egg price was down 0.4 per cent from the previous week, and down 0.9 per cent in the past three weeks.

Eight kinds of sea products also saw an average price drop of 0.5 per cent.

Prices of rice and edible oil rose slightly, both up 0.2 per cent.

The general price decline of farm products is further decreasing the pressure on inflation, which began easing in July.

The country's consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, climbed 6.1 per cent year-on-year in September from 6.2 per cent in August and 6.5 per cent in July, which was a 37-month high.

Despite the eases, inflation remains stubbornly high - far exceeding the government's full-year target of 4 per cent for 2011.

Sheng Laiyun, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said that the likelihood of CPI growth further dropping in the fourth quarter was very high.

The government has made controlling consumer prices a top priority this year by tightening monetary policies which included raising the benchmark interest rates three times and hiking banks' reserve requirement ratio six times since the start of the year.

NBS data showed that the economy expanded 9.1 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter, the slowest pace in two years.

The slowing economic growth and tight monetary polices all pointed to an inflation decrease, Mr Laiyun said at a press conference Tuesday in Beijing.

He said that a bumper harvest this year and declining international commodity prices would also ease price pressure in the coming months.

Live Cattle Export Ban in Australia
 
End the Live Cattle Export Ban in Australia!

As many will know the Australian Government recently reacted to a TV documentary on Indonesian slaughter of cattle. The action was arbitrary, misinformed and a gross over reaction to satisfy special interest groups and public opinion.
 
The ban has the potential to wreck many cattle farmers and consequentially Australia's lucrative live goat and sheep exports.
 
The following letter is reprinted courtesy of Chevredor.



My name is Rashida Khan and I am a cattle producer, animal nutritionist, and animal lover and have been raised with an insight to the true Muslim faith.
 
I have been fortunate enough to travel and have been to Asia. My family has a cattle property in the Northern Territory and I have many contacts right through the supply chain. We care deeply about our animals and have always designed our workload and facilities with the animals needs in mind. So far our only market for the cattle we raise and fatten has been live export, with 80% of these cattle going to Indonesia. Of course we have been calling for diversity in our marketing options for the past 20yrs but to no avail. Most of the NT abattoirs have been shut down by union pressure and government red tape, making it extremely difficult for people to reopen the slaughter houses.
 
These facilities would take the cattle we cannot send to Indonesia if they are the wrong colour or have a minor blemish. If the export industry is closed down completely in the next week, can we expect a flush of government support for local businesses and abattoirs? Do we have the skilled labour force to process these cattle starting next week? Will we have suitable facilities to deal with the 700,000 head standing in the yards waiting, by next week?
 


When I saw the footage aired on 4 Corners on Monday 30th May 2011, I was rendered speechless. The cruelty was horrific and so very unnecessary.
 


Initially I was angered and upset by the treatment of the cattle but I soon began to analyse what I had viewed. The whole video was played out to leave the viewer with only one conclusion. Stop Live Export. I began to make phone calls and despite asking friends, colleagues and family I couldn’t find a single person who had ever witnessed that level of abuse in an Indonesian abattoir. Still it pays to remember that there are around 770 in Indonesia and only 11 have participated in this carnage.
 


Nowhere on the footage was a mention of the Indonesian processors who do the job properly. They were neither interviewed nor given any exposure. I believe it is a terrible shame if the whole industry must pay for the actions of so few. With exception to those 11 slaughter houses, I think it would be timely to mention the work done by the rest of the industry. There have been substantial investments both personally and financially in the development of better cattle boats, better feedlots, better breeding environments and handling, nutrition for maximum health, improved bio-security and better abattoirs. Yet strangely all of this was glossed over.
 


Since there was no mention of this better side, it is easy to understand how the Australian public became so angry and began generalising about the Indonesian people. I think it should be understood publically that these are not uneducated people at all but very savvy business people, who are often highly educated and extremely wealthy. To lump all Indonesian people in the category of animal abusers who know no better was a dangerous and stupid move. This prompted comments of a racist and derogative nature on the forums provided by the Jakarta Post and Straits Times. The outrage in Australia was fuelled by half truths and graphic images that I for one shall never forget. It has led to hasty decision making with scant regard for the flow on effects.
 


The cruelty displayed in the footage was mistakenly called Halal. There have been some very nasty comments linked to this and directed at Indonesia which has the world’s largest Muslim population. Let me assure you that there was nothing Halal about those kills. They were messy, blood tainted the meat, the animals were damaged and abused and no prayer was said for their soul. Halal kills are quiet, with many people restraining the animal, out of sight of other animals, till it has died. The throat must be cut swiftly with a sharp blade. It is a tradition that has carried on and means that stun guns which were not available in the days of the Prophet could be employed today. This is however a cultural decision for the Indonesian people which has garnered support with many but may take time to implement. The Muslim community was on board until the negative slurs began which has put everyone offside. The fact that no clear information has been released regarding this is a great pity as many people would greatly benefit from the education.

We must remember in terms of asking Indonesia to adopt our ideas that we are a relatively new culture spanning just 200yrs, theirs is a culture reaching back 3000years. We live by different socio economic standards and enjoy many luxuries courtesy of our resources and significantly smaller population. Small things like personal refrigeration are still a long way off in Indonesia’s middle to lower class population making the sale of chilled meat unviable. Housewives will feel the meat for warmth to ensure the beast has been killed that day and the meat is fresh. This is a way of life and would require both individuals and cultural groups to make changes.
 


This is not to say we can’t offer advice and assistance to improve slaughter conditions, make working conditions safer by stunning the generally unhandled Australian cattle who are not used to being roped, improve meat quality by eliminating the abuse and stress and redesigning the slaughter boxes to have a lesser gradient and better grip. However our high and mighty approach taken and the continued abuse to their intelligence makes negotiations with people who genuinely wish to improve animal welfare conditions extremely difficult.
 


The call has been to Ban Live Exports. Now this is to be discussed in Parliament and may be written into the law books. While the main focus is currently on cattle and has previously been on sheep, I would like to point out that there have been no distinctions made in the general push to Ban Live Exports.
 
Australia exports a lot of animals of different types and should a motion go through parliament, extreme welfare groups will have an excellent opportunity to cripple other industries in Australia under this blanket ban. For example feral goats are exported, racehorses are regularly shipped overseas and not to mention the booming performance horse industries with endurance horses going to the UAE, Warmbloods to Europe and Quarter Horses to the USA. We also send cattle to 27 other countries excluding Indonesia. Should all these people suffer because of 11 slaughter houses in Indonesia? Once a law is made it is rarely toned down and we have seen time and again the impact of these sweeping bans and the repercussions.
 


Most of Australia’s geography is not suited to other forms of agriculture and the rangeland grazing of livestock has proven to be efficient and sustainable. While we may export large quantities of minerals they are an exhaustible resource and tourism is dependant of global finances and political stability. Carbon trading is not likely to be a sustainable income stream to support the many people actively involved in Agriculture and in my opinion cannot replace the live export trade. If producers and graziers go broke they will take with them regional communities and support services that they currently support. By the end of the week 13,000 Australians could be unemployed and more to follow, if the Industry collapses. This is not just the loss of a job; it’s the loss of hopes, dreams, blood sweat and tears. People will lose their way of life and support they need to live in the places they love.
 


What are producers expected to do with their stock in the interim of the export industry closing and alternate markets opening? Unfortunately we are not as wealthy as we are publicised to be and cannot afford to shut down and wait. Many producers have committed themselves to tailoring theirbusinesses at great cost to meet the specifications of Live Export. We breed grey cattle, we market them at 350kg even though we have the knowledge to grow them bigger and still only get paid by the kilogram. We have endeavoured to improve nutrition and handling techniques and yet we get 24hrs warning that the ports are closed.
 
In my years of training animals I know one thing clearly, that behaviour that is rewarded is always repeated! So could someone explain to me why we are doing everything right and yet being treated so poorly? This question covers the Indonesian processors who are also doing the right thing and the true Muslims who follow the holy procedure of the Halal kill.
 
How is this abuse of peoples efforts justified? As an Australian producer I am particularly upset to think producers have paid $5/animal to be treated like this and to see those animals treated that way. I am also disappointed in the sudden silence from animal welfare groups who only made a brief appearance when the footage was aired, with just enough encouragement to cause a stir and then they melted away. I ask them, What about the cattle? Don’t they matter now that you have your petitions sighed and donations stowed away? So you have succeeded in suspending the Live Export Industry but have you made any physical changes to the animal’s treatment in Indonesia? Have you consulted the appropriate Indonesian authorities? Are you funding any training for the slaughtermen? Or have you moved on to your next victim?
 


If Australia is going to become worried by the actions of others with animals, then we should also look into the treatment of the animals that provide the products we import. This is just as important and should be seriously considered. I am absolutely disgusted in the treatment of those cattle in the footage but if we are going to seriously make a difference we must explore our imports. Anything short of this would be hypocrisy.
 
The key issue has always been animal welfare. However due to ignorance and negligence it has escalated into a volatile argument between neighbours, which has left thousands of cattle stranded, thousands of people in a precarious position and must be diplomatically handled. The Indonesians are in my opinion unlikely to back down in their stance. While the phrase No Stun- No Cattle is catchy, to accept it would mean the Indonesians lose face - something the Asian community doesn’t take lightly. Australia has many trained diplomats and it’s time for them to act. We need to reengage the Muslim community, apologise for the childish insults and press for positive solutions that benefit all stakeholders. Focussing on improving meat quality would be a perfect inroad. We must continue to pressure the Australian Government for support in diversifying the markets in Northern Australia.
 


If we don’t act, what will become of the cattle? Will we have another international embarrassment to rival the Camel Cull and the BTEC program, which are widely seen internationally as wasteful and inhumane? In any negotiations regarding this Australians would do well to remember people in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
 


I am only one voice but together we can provide a solid stance and with common sense and empathy we can rectify this situation. We must spread the message and educate people to support our Australian producers and associated industries as well as those in Indonesia who are in the same situation. These people have done nothing wrong and like our other export clients should not be punished for the actions of a few. If we can collectively act to make real changes to the slaughter conditions in those 11 abattoirs, we will have made a tangible difference to international animal welfare. Banning Live Export and insulting our neighbours doesn’t help the beast that dies in Jakarta tonight!
 
Sincerely

Rashida Khan

Kita Lagoon, NT, Australia

CAP Reforms Fail Europe's Farm Animals, Says CIWF
UK - Compassion in World Farming (CIWF) says it is horrified by the European Commission's failure to improve animal welfare in the proposals for CAP reform.
 

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) proposals that were officially revealed by the European Commission yesterday, fail to support farmers who want to introduce higher welfare systems on their farms.

Despite strong scientific evidence that industrial livestock production harms animal health and welfare and notwithstanding taxpayers’ belief that the CAP should help improve the well-being of farm animals, the Commission's proposals almost completely fail to address animal welfare.

Indeed the proposals seriously weaken the existing CAP measures that enable payments to be made to farmers who wish to attain high standards of animal welfare. One such measure (Article 68 of Pillar 1) has been disposed of altogether. The other measure (the Animal Welfare Payments in Pillar 2) has been diluted to the point where it may be of little value in practice. At present Animal Welfare Payments can be made for five to seven years, whereas under the proposal they can only be made for 'a renewable period of one year'. Farmers will be reluctant to incur the expense of moving to a new, higher welfare system if they may receive support for just one year.

Peter Stevenson, Compassion's Chief Policy Advisor says: "We are deeply disappointed that current provisions have been very substantially weakened. Under the Commission proposals for the CAP, after 2013 almost none of the €55 billion of CAP funds handed out each year will be used to help farmers move away from industrialised farming to more humane, higher welfare farming."

The Commission's proposals will now be considered by the European Parliament and the 27 Member States. Compassion in World Farming is calling on the Parliament and the Member States to strengthen the proposals so that a significant part of the CAP funds are used to help Europe's farmers move away from the inhumane, resource-hungry factory farms that blight so much of the EU livestock sector and instead to adopt high welfare extensive farming practices. These would benefit both animal welfare and other key CAP objectives including reduced pollution and use of water, enhanced soil quality, regeneration of biodiversity and improved human health.

, October 17, 2011
August Pork Exports Soar to New Heights
US - August was another outstanding month for US pork and beef exports, according to statistics released by USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF).
 

Pork exports reached their highest monthly volume of the year at 186,068 metric tons, and the second-highest value total of all time at $531.2 million. Both pork and beef exports are on pace to set new value records in 2011 and to eclipse the $5 billion mark for the first time ever.

Pork exports surge in Asia, Canada, Russia, Southern Hemisphere markets
August pork exports were 27 per cent higher than a year ago in terms of volume and 44 per cent higher in value (surpassed only by the record $553.6 million, set in March 2011). This performance pushed year-to-date exports to nearly 1.44 million metric tons valued at $3.82 billion – an increase of 16 per cent in volume and 23 per cent in value over last year’s pace. August exports equated to 27.3 per cent of production with a value of $56.27 per head, compared to 22.4 per cent and $40.87 in August 2010. For the year, pork exports equated to 27.3 per cent of production with a per head value of $53.98.

August exports to Japan, the leading value market for US pork, were 28 per cent higher than a year ago in volume (40,887 metric tons) and 37 per cent higher in value ($168.4 million). For the year, exports to Japan were 13 per cent ahead of last year’s record pace in terms of volume (328,353 metric tons) and 16 per cent higher in value ($1.27 billion).

South Korea continues to be a bright spot for US pork as August exports more than doubled last year’s volume total (10,268 metric tons) and more than tripled the value ($31.2 million). For the year, exports to Korea were 142 per cent higher in volume (146,627 metric tons) and 192 per cent higher in value ($374.5 million). These totals have already set new full-year records for Korea, topping the previous highs set in 2008 of 133,532 metric tons valued at $284 million.

Exports to China also continued to surge, with a record August volume (35,636 metric tons) pushing this year’s volume up 336 per cent (188,622 metric tons) to go along with a 237 per cent increase in value ($316.8 million). Exports to Canada were up 9 per cent in volume (131,004 metric tons) and 14 per cent in value ($464.2 million). August export volume to Russia was the second-highest of the year at 8,213 metric tons. Though export volume to Russia (49,143 metric tons) was down about 12 per cent for the year, value was up 22 per cent to $149.4 million. Another market showing exceptional growth was Australia, up 18 per cent for the year in volume (45,865 metric tons) and 39 per cent in value to $147.4 million (less than $1 million short of the full-year value record established last year). Exports to Central-South America were up 22 per cent to 44,980 metric tons with volume up 33 per cent to $113.4 million. Existing trade agreements have assisted exports to this region and ratification of the Colombia and Panama FTAs will foster further growth.

Mexico continues to be the top volume destination for US pork at 344,875 metric tons – down 3 per cent from last year’s record pace. August volume of 44,641 metric tons was steady with last year but up 13 per cent from July, and the value of August’s exports to Mexico rose more than 10 per cent. For the year, export value to Mexico was up 2 per cent to just under $654 million.

"It is gratifying to see US pork exports performing so well in key Asian markets and in so many countries across the globe," said USMEF President and CEO Philip Seng, who has just returned from the World Pork Conference in Bonn, Germany. "Many regions of the world are facing very tight pork supplies and exports from many pork-producing countries are stagnant. The efficiency and resourcefulness of US producers have allowed our industry to fill this need, and through aggressive campaigns such as the global pork butt initiative we are moving a wider range of cuts than ever in overseas markets. This has solidified our position as the world’s leading pork exporter."

Monday, October 17, 2011
Finland to Start Exporting Pork to China
FINLAND - Finland aims to start exporting pork to China. The long-negotiated agreements about food safety are to be signed at the end of October, when Finland’s Minister of Agriculture and Forestry visits China.


Finland has not exported pork to China before. According to YLE, among Finnish meat producers, Atria and HKScan are considering exports to China.

Demand for meat in the prosperous Asian country is constantly growing, and the market there is seen as nearly boundless.

Monday, October 17, 2011
Wal-Mart China CEO Quits Amid Pork Scandal
CHINA - The head of Wal-Mart Stores Inc's China business has resigned citing personal reasons, after the world's largest retailer ran into trouble with Chinese authorities leading to store closures and employee detentions.


The departure of China CEO Ed Chan, along with Senior Vice-President of Human Resources Clara Wong, is another setback for Wal-Mart which is facing stiff competition from local firms in the strategically important market, according to China Daily.

The company, which recently celebrated its 15th anniversary in China, closed more than a dozen stores in central China last week following allegations they sold regular pork as organic pork over the past two years.

Authorities in Chongqing have arrested two Walmart China employees and detained 37 others over the incident.

Both resignations announced on Monday were for personal reasons and had "no correlation" with the investigations in Chongqing, Walmart Asia spokesman Anthony Rose said.

"We have used the last few days to put in place corrective actions in our stores," Mr Rose said, adding that the stores would reopen by 25 October.

This is the second round of top-management resignations at Walmart China in less than five months. In May, its chief financial officer and chief operating officer resigned "to explore other opportunities", the company had said.

"It's really hard to say whether this (Monday's resignations) is a consequence of that (pork scandal) ," said Torsten Stocker, a China retail analyst with Monitor Group.

"It might be, but I think at the end of the day, it is still not clear what really happened in Chongqing," he said.

"Obviously what happened in Chongqing is impacting their business in Chongqing and presumably ought to be having some impact on the grand overall business. Any type of leadership change like this, it's never a good thing."

Struggle in China
After entering China in 1996, Wal-Mart's expansion gathered steam in 2007 when it bought a 35 per cent stake in Taiwanese hypermarket chain Trust-Mart. It has 353 stores in the Chinese mainland.

Wal-Mart's market share in hypermarkets was 11.2 per cent in 2010, in second place after China's Sun Art, but spending for the expansion has weighed on its profitability.

Wal-Mart's problem is that it is trying to compete with domestic chains on price, said Shaun Rein, managing director at Shanghai-based China Market Research Group.

"If your strategy is 'cheaper than Chinese companies', you are never going to win the market," Mr Rein said.

"But that is what Wal-Mart is trying to do. The strategy is all wrong since the very beginning, and that is why it has never been profitable here."

Wal-Mart competes with French hypermarket chain Carrefour, Britain's Tesco, Germany's Metro AG, China's Sun Art and China Resources Enterprise.

China's hypermarket sector is forecast to grow at a compounded annual rate of 10.1 per cent between 2010 and 2015, according to Euromonitor. But price competition is particularly tough in that segment.

Walmart Asia CEO Scott Price, who will also serve as interim China head, said China was a strong market for the group.

"China is a very important market for Wal-Mart and China's 12th five-year plan will provide strong opportunities to the retail industry," Mr Price said in a statement on Monday.

Last week, European luxury group Gucci said it had replaced two managers in southern China after former workers at a store released an open letter alleging employee abuse.

"Walmart's problems are similar to other rivals, particularly the foreign operators, including competition for staff," said Alex Wong, a director at Ample Finance Group.

"A relatively high (staff) turnover rate suggested that it has some problem with its incentive plan in recruiting and retaining sales people," Mr Wong said.

It may now appear,the so called road map for meat production in the provinces might have been overstated.The Govt. plan might be more of no plan at all for the goat and sheep small holders in the rural countryside.Consider that most of the goat and sheep raisers are in the rural country not to include this group of raisers makes no sense for this industry as a whole and will hinder rather than progress this industry into a viable livestock industry where producers have a real chance of making money from this industry.

Now rather appears,those in a position to help raise this industry into something that is viable over a hobby will have to step up to the plate and offer their respected areas help with better breeding stocks to help make their stocks more productive for the market place.This is merely buck passing at its best.The Govt. gets to wash their hands of any committment and leaves the private sector to put up stocks at their own costs with no compensation to the producer,might be a win,win for the Govt. but to a producer its just another problem he/she has to deal with on a daily bases in this industry.Rather than helping this industry progress in the rural countryside the no plan will only prolong the progress for this industry.

Lets hope all will work out in the end for those interested to become part of this exciting industry.

meat the need:
Mustang Sally Farm