CME: Beef Exports Up, Pork Exports Down in October
US - October export data indicate continued growth for beef and beef product shipments and continued year-on-year monthly declines for pork shipments but higher export values across the board, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.


"We believe that latter factor is far more important when it comes to demand contribution by exports and is one of the primary reasons we have seen such strong wholesale level demand for both beef and pork this fall," write the authors.

The charts show historical data for monthly values of beef, pork and various by-product exports from January 2001 through October.






A few important features of these charts are:

The Great Recession was tough on beef exports. High-flying 2008 beef exports came to a screeching halt along with the world economy and did not begin to recover until early this year. And that was not only true of beef muscle cuts. The value of beef hide exports fell sharply in late 2008 as the demand for cars and furniture slowed and decreased the demand for leather. The recession's impact can be seen for variety meats as well but it is not as dramatic there since these tend to be low-priced items.


While the quantity of beef exports has yet to get back to pre- BSE levels, the value of beef exports is now solid near those peaks. Export values have exceeded the peak value of June 2003 in four months thus far in 2010 . The August 2008 record of $343 million still stands but we believe it is very likely to fall, either yet this year or as beef prices grow in 2011.


Non-meat items are not nearly as important to the pork sector. The total value of variety meats, sausage casings and pig skins barely comes to one-sixth the value of monthly pork exports.


The Great Recession is not as evident in pork export values. In fact, pork export values appear to have been driven more by the 'pre-recession bubble' than to have been harmed by the recession itself. That 2008 bubble, of course, was driven primarily by purchases by China-Hong Kong. Remove it and monthly pork export values fall on a more or less steady upward trend.


Obviously, pig skins are not nearly as important as cattle hides, barely registering at the bottom of the scale. We included sausage casings in the chart just to demonstrated the differences that exist between the species.
As for October export performance, beef exports were 19 per cent higher than last year on a product weight basis and the value of those shipments was 37 per cent higher. Year-to-date, beef shipments and value are up 17 per cent and 28 per cent, respectively. October cattle hide exports were up 16 per cent in volume and 54 per cent in value from last year. Year-to-date figures for hides are +4.7 per cent in volume and +70.2 per cent in value.

October pork exports were 9.9 per cent lower than last year but the value of those shipments was 9.3 per cent higher. Pork exports are still 1.6 per cent larger than in 2009, year-to-date through October. Year-to-date export value is up 12.8 per cent. October pork variety meat exports were 33 per cent and 24 per cent larger in volume and value, respectively, than one year ago. Year-to-date, those figures are +2.7 per cent and +0.6 per cent.

Danish Breeding Pig Farm Set up in China
CHINA - Danish-owned Scandinavian Farms has started construction of a new pig breeding farm in Jiangsu province.


The first steps towards building a big Danish-owned pig breeding farm was made on 11 December in the Jiangsu province. The project is the first large-scale Danish investment in Chinese agriculture and is based on the concept 'Safe pork' and 'farm–to–table' principles, for which Danish pig production is world-known.

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark in Beijing, the ground-breaking ceremony of the project on 11 December was attended by Party Secretary from Lianyugang, Mr Tang, Mayor in Guanyun, Mr Yin, and Vice Secretary of China Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Association, Mr Ma, together with representatives from the Danish Embassy, management from Scandinavian Farms Ltd. and Scandinavian Farms Pig Breeding Technology Ltd.

Scandinavian Farms Ltd. is a Danish-owned project development company within food and agriculture, which is established in China and based on competitive technology and know-how from Denmark.

Scandinavian Farms is owned by the two founders, Peter N. Rasmussen and Martin Hjort Jensen, together with a group of Danish investors from leading companies within agricultural technology and the feed industry. The subsidiary company, Scandinavian Pig Breeding Technology, which is going to run the breeding farm, is owned by Danish pig producers.

In 2009, the Industrialisation Fund for Developing Countries (IFU) under the Danish Foreign Ministry joined in the project, which is considered to be a good business opportunity, because the project activities will create local employment and income in Jiangsu province.

The local authorities in Jiangsu focus on developing and optimising agriculture in the province, and therefore, it already has a more mechanised agriculture compared to other Chinese provinces.

The project in Jiangsu is the first of its kind and will clear the way for several other projects in the future from which both China and Denmark can benefit.

Smuggled ducks can be carrier of virus
[15 December 2010] An influx of frozen Peking duck has prompted Philippines’ lawmaker Nicanor Briones to call on the Bureau of Customs to stop the alleged rampant smuggling of frozen poultry products since it is a potential carrier of the bird flu virus. It is reported that Chinese restaurants have an abundant supply of the imported and smuggled duck in their display.

Philippine meat traders ask government to reconsider order
[16 December 2010]  Philippine meat traders and importers have asked the Department of Agriculture to reconsider an order that requires traders and importers to put up cold-chain systems for storing frozen and chilled meat. The Meat Importers and Traders Association (MITA) questioned what it considered were “serious loopholes” in DA Administrative Order 22, which is yet to take effect. In a letter to Agriculture Secretary Proceso Alcala, MITA President Jesus Cham said that there was no consultation with the industry before the order was made and that should the order be put into effect in its original form it could mean a 30% reduction in pork supply in Metro Manila.

US soy farmers to expand share of Philippine market
[15 December 2010] Based on the anticipated growth of the Philippine feedmilling industry, American soybean farmers are looking to further expand their share of Philippine soybean meal supply. Buoyed by a vibrant economy and higher meat and poultry consumption. The Philippines imported 1.5 million metric tonnes of soybean meal last year with US soybean meal taking 35% share of the market. Industry insiders believe this year’s imports may exceed 1.6 million tonnes due to higher feed demand from the pork and poultry sector.

Australia beef exports to Asia rank positively
[13 December 2010] Increased supply and strong importer enquiries in preparation for the up coming Christmas and New Year augured well for Australian beef exports to South East Asia and Greater China during November. Exporte increased 19% from the previous month and 7% compared with the same time last year. Shipments to South East Asia and Greater China over the calendar year to November increased 5% year-on-year, totalling 121,284 tonnes swt, attributed largely to rises in exports to Malaysia (up 43%), Philippines (up 16%), China (up 8%) and Thailand (up 17%). Exports to Indonesia and Singapore during the 11 months to November remained steady, while the volume sent to Hong Kong decreased 6%.

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates - December 2010
Forecasts for 2010 and 2011 pork production have been raised, according to the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
The forecast of total US meat production is raised for 2010 and 2011. Forecasts for 2010 beef, pork, broilers and turkeys are raised reflecting high slaughter levels during the fourth quarter and higher weights for hogs and broilers. For 2011, production forecasts for beef, pork, and broilers are increased. The beef production increase largely reflects higher forecast placements of cattle during the fourth quarter of 2010 and early 2011. Pork production is raised from last month on slightly higher slaughter. Broiler production is forecast higher as hatchery data indicate continued large egg sets and poultry placements during the fourth quarter of 2010. The turkey production forecast for 2011 is unchanged from last month. The egg production forecast is lowered slightly in 2010 but is unchanged for 2011.

Trade forecasts for 2010 are adjusted, largely reflecting third quarter data. However, beef imports are lowered for both late 2010 and early 2011 as exportable supplies of beef for several U.S suppliers are expected to be relatively tight. Beef exports are raised for 2011 as improved economic growth in major export markets is expected to stimulate sales. Pork exports for 2010 are reduced as relatively high pork prices are likely constraining growth in exports. Forecasts for pork exports for 2011 are unchanged. Poultry forecasts for 2011 are unchanged.

The cattle price forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are raised to reflect continued strong demand for cattle. Hog prices for 2010 and 2011 are forecast lower than last month as pork supplies are large. The broiler price forecast is lowered on larger supplies. Egg prices for 2010 and 2011 are forecast higher.

Forecast milk production for 2010 and 2011 is little changed last month. Fat-basis imports for 2010 are lowered primarily due to lower imports of cheese but skim-solids imports are unchanged due to higher imports of expected imports of other products. Fat basis exports for 2010 are raised as sales of cheese and fluid milk and cream are strong and skim-solids exports are boosted by strong sales of cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM). Exports for 2011 are forecast higher due to expected growth in butter and nonfat dry milk sales. Ending stocks for 2010 are raised to reflect higher-than expected stocks of cheese.

For 2010, cheese and whey prices are unchanged from last month. NDM prices are forecast higher but the butter price forecast is reduced reflecting recent sharp declines in butter prices. With no change in either the cheese or whey price, the Class III price forecast is unchanged. However, the Class IV price forecast is reduced, due to a lower butter price forecast which more than offsets a higher expected NDM price. For 2011, the range of the cheese price forecast narrowed but whey is forecast higher. The butter price is reduced as current price weakness spills into early 2011. NDM prices are forecast higher. The ranges of the Class III and Class IV price forecasts are narrowed from last month. The all milk price is forecast to average $16.25 to $16.35 per cwt for 2010 and $15.90 to $16.70 per cwt for 2011.

Wheat
US wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 10 million bushels higher this month reflecting lower domestic use. Projected food use is lowered 10 million bushels on the latest mill-grind data from the US Census Bureau which indicate flour extraction rates that are higher than the long-term average for a third straight year. With historically high wheat prices, millers continue to get more flour out of each bushel of wheat. Total exports are unchanged, but small shifts among classes result in higher projected exports of Hard Red Spring and White wheat and lower projected exports of Hard Red Winter wheat and durum. The projected marketing-year average price received by producers is narrowed 5 cents on each end of the range to $5.30 to $5.70 per bushel.

Global 2010/11 wheat supplies are projected 4.9 million tons higher this month reflecting an increase in EU-27 beginnings stocks with lower 2009/10 feed use and higher 2010/11 production in Australia, Pakistan, Canada, Brazil, and Ukraine. Production for Australia is raised 1.5 million tons as higher reported yields in eastern Australia continue to boost production prospects. Recent, heavy rains in many of these same areas, however, have dampened production prospects and reduced wheat quality. Official government statistics for Pakistan and Canada boost production 1.3 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively. Brazil production is raised 0.4 million tons as favorably dry harvest weather in southern growing areas add to output. Ukraine production is raised 0.2 million tons on the latest government data. Partly offsetting these increases is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Russia.

World wheat trade for 2010/11 is projected lower this month as tighter supplies of high quality wheat raise world prices and slow demand in several smaller markets. Wheat imports are also reduced 0.5 million tons each for Brazil and EU-27. Larger production reduces the need for imports in Brazil. In EU-27, lower expected wheat feeding reduces demand for imported wheat. World wheat exports are lowered 1.7 million tons with reductions for Australia, China, Canada, and Mexico. Export prospects for Australia and Canada are reduced reflecting the lower quality of wheat in both countries this year. Partly offsetting are increases for Iran, Serbia and Croatia.

Global 2010/11 wheat consumption is raised with higher expected wheat feeding in China and higher expected feed and residual disappearance in Australia and Canada. Reduced government incentives to export wheat from China make more wheat available for domestic feeding. Larger supplies of lower quality wheat in Australia and Canada are expected to boost feeding and increase residual losses in both countries. Partly offsetting are 0.5-million-ton reductions in feed use for both EU-17 and Russia, and small declines in food use in several countries due to high prices. Ending stocks are raised 4.2 million tons with the largest increases for Pakistan, EU-27, Australia and Canada.

Coarse Grains
US feed grain supplies for 2010/11 are virtually unchanged as a small increase in corn imports is offset by a reduction in barley imports both reflecting feed grain production changes for Canada this month. US corn imports are raised five million bushels with record production reported for Canada. US corn ending stocks are raised accordingly. Barley imports are lowered 5 million bushels with lower production in Canada and the slow pace of imports to date. US barley food, seed, and industrial use is lowered the same amount as domestic beer consumption remains weak slowing demand for malting barley. The projected marketing-year average price received by US corn producers is unchanged this month at $4.80 to $5.60 per bushel. Farm prices for barley and oats are both projected slightly lower based on prices received by producers to date.

Global coarse grain production for 2010/11 is increased 3.4 million tons with corn production up 2.2 million tons, barley production up 0.6 million tons, and oats production up 0.4 million tons. India corn production is raised 1.0 million tons as the extended monsoon increased late-season soil moisture for the summer corn crop. The same conditions boosted harvested area for millet, adding 0.3 million tons to India production. Australia barley and oats production are raised 1.9 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, both on higher reported yields. The latest official statistics from Canada indicated mostly offsetting production changes for coarse grains. Canada corn production is raised 0.7 million tons as favorable weather boosted corn yields in Ontario and Quebec. Canada barley production is lowered 0.6 million tons with lower area and yields in the western prairies. Corn production is raised 0.5 million tons for Ukraine and 0.4 million tons for EU-27. Small offsetting reductions are made this month for Paraguay corn, Ukraine barley and oats, and Russia barley and rye.

Global 2010/11 coarse grain trade is lowered slightly mostly reflecting reduced corn imports by Mexico as feeding there is projected lower. Corn exports are lowered 0.8 million tons for Serbia, but raised 0.5 million tons and 0.2 million tons, respectively, for India and Canada. Barley exports are lowered 0.4 million tons for Canada, but raised 0.3 million tons for Australia. Reduced corn feeding for Mexico and Serbia is mostly offset by increases for India, South Africa, and Canada. Global corn ending stocks are projected 0.8 million tons higher with larger stocks in EU-27 and Serbia partly offset by smaller stocks in South Africa and Mexico.

Oilseeds
Total US oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 101.7 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean exports are increased 20 million bushels to 1.59 billion reflecting record export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) through November. With projected crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 165 million bushels, down 20 million from last month.

The US season-average soybean price range for 2010/11 is projected at $10.70 to $12.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price projection is also unchanged at $310 to $350 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are projected at 45 to 49 cents per pound, up 2.5 cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 442.6 million tons, up 1.9 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases for soybeans, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed. Global soybean production is projected at a 257.8 million tons, up 0.4 million mainly due to an increase for Canada. Global rapeseed production is projected at 58.4 million tons, up 1.2 million due to gains for Canada and EU-27. Canadian rapeseed production is raised 0.9 million tons to 11.9 million based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada. Higher-than-expected yields account for the change. EU-27 rapeseed production is increased due to higher yield estimates for Germany, United Kingdom, and Romania. Other changes this month include increased sunflowerseed production for EU-27, increased cottonseed production for Brazil and Australia, and reduced cottonseed production for Pakistan.

Global oilseed trade is projected at 112.2 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month. Increased soybean exports from the United States and Canada account for most of the change. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 70.3 million tons, down 1 million, as lower soybean stocks in Brazil and the United States are only partly offset by higher rapeseed stocks in Canada.

CME: Year-End Stocks for Corn and Soybean
US - USDA’s December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), released on Friday, contained slightly higher projected year-end stocks for corn and lower projected year-end soybean stocks with neither number differing dramatically from the average of analysts forecasts that were published earlier in the week, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.


USDA’s December supply and utilization data for both crops appears on page 3 (please click on the link below).

Corn analysts had expected, on average, a slight reduction in projected year-end corn stocks but the report raised that estimate by 5 million bushels. That change was driven by a 5 billion bushel increase in projected corn imports from Canada. No other number in USDA’s S & U table changed and USDA left its forecast national weighted average farm price at $4.80 to $5.60 per bushel. Though slightly higher, the projected year-end stocks-to-use ratio for corn remains at 6.2 per cent, the second lowest ever. The corn price is expected to increase from last year’s $3.55/bushel in response to the decline in projected year-end stocks-to-use ratio from 13.1 per cent in 2010. These changes reflect the expected negative relationship between quantity and price. However, note the difference between this year’s forecast price and that of 1995-96 when the stocks-touse ratio was at 5 per cent, its lowest level ever. The large difference between the forecast 2010-11 price and the 1995-96 price even with a higher stocks-to-use ratio indicates that corn demand is dramatically higher now than it was in pre-ethanol days.


Global coarse grain (corn, sorghum (milo), oats, barley, rye and millet) supply was increased by 3.4 million tons in 2011 with corn, barley and oats production accounting for 2.2 million, 0.6 million tons and 0.4 million tons, respectively, of that increase. India was the primary driver of the higher corn production number, rising 1.0 million tons from the October estimate.

USDA did reduce projected soybean carry-out stocks by 20 million bushels to 165 million bushels. The reduction was due to a 20 million bushel increase in projected soybean exports, a very reasonable change we think given the rapid pace of exports since 1 September. The reduction in projected carryout stocks pushed the year-end stock-to-use ratio for soybeans down to 4.9 per cent, the 5th lowest ever. Here again, a modestly higher stocksto- use ratio is accompanied by a higher price reflecting the strength of soybean demand.


Friday’s other piece of major news for grains and feed costs is that the compromise tax bill includes a 1-year extension of the ethanol blenders’ tax credit (BTC), the ethanol import tariff as well as the revival of the $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit. The first two were set to expire on 31 December. The biodiesel credit expired at the end of 2009 and we understand that its reinstatement is retroactive, meaning that biodiesel producers can collect the credit on production back to the beginning of 2010. The extension for the BTC and tariff leave them at $0.45 and $0.54/gallon, respectively. The tax bill is expected to pass the Senate but faces an uncertain future in the House where liberal Democrats have vowed to fight it in spite of the support of President Obama.

To us, the most important facet of this deal is its timing. The 2012 run for the White House will begin with the Iowa Caucuses on 6 February 2012. This one-year extension will put the next round of ethanol debates squarely in the middle of the campaigns for those causes. Will anyone be bold enough to oppose the ethanol incentives during their presidential campaign launch?

Meat Production Forecast for 2010 and 2011 Revised
US - Ever since the new crop corn hit the feed bins, hog slaughter weights have been higher, writes Ron Plain.
 
Ron Plain
The average carcass weight of barrows and gilts slaughtered the week ending 27 November was a record 206 pounds, one pound heavier than the previous week and 5 pounds heavier than a year ago. Iowa-Minnesota live weights for barrows and gilts last week averaged 275.6 pounds, up 0.6 pounds from the week before and up 5.7 pounds compared to a year earlier.

USDA has revised upward their forecast of meat production in both 2010 and 2011. They are now estimating 2010 red meat and poultry production at 91.6 billion pounds. That is up 0.8 per cent from 2009 and up 0.6 per cent from their November estimate. Pork production is expected to be down 2.9 per cent this year and turkey production down 0.9 per cent. But, 2010 beef production is expected to be up 0.9 per cent and broiler production up 3.4 per cent compared to last year.

For 2011, USDA is forecasting beef production to decline by 2.5 per cent and turkey production to drop 0.9 per cent again. Pork production is forecast to increase by 1.1 per cent with broiler production up 1.3 per cent. Total red meat and poultry production in 2011 is forecast to equal this year's level.

USDA is forecasting the average live weight price of barrows and gilts to be close to $54.90/cwt this year and around $55/cwt in 2011.

Hog prices ended the week even with the week before. The national weighted average carcass price for negotiated hogs Friday morning was $65.23/cwt, up 4 cents from the previous Friday. The average carcass price this morning in the eastern corn belt was $65.12/cwt. Both the western corn belt and Iowa-Minnesota averaged $66.63/cwt this morning. The top live hog price Friday at Sioux Falls was $49/cwt. The top at Zumbrota was $46 and Peoria's top was $47.50/cwt. The interior Missouri live top Friday was $46/cwt, down $1.50 from last Friday.

USDA's Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $78.53/cwt, up 64 cents from the previous Thursday. Hams were lower this week while loins and butts were higher, belly prices were unchanged.

Hog slaughter totaled 2.257 million head this week, down 3.1 per cent from the week before but up 1.1 per cent compared to the same week last year. This is the eighth consecutive week with slaughter above the year-ago level. Pork production is down 3.1 per cent for the year, but it has been above year-ago for each of the last eight weeks.

The December lean hog futures contract ended the week at $69.45/cwt, up 18 cents from the previous Friday. The February contract ended the week at $75.15/cwt and April settled at $79.00.

December corn futures ended the week at $5.60'2/bushel, up 1 cent from the previous Friday.

British Pork? Use It or Lose It
UK - Two successive rises in the DAPP which now stands at 136.85p helped to put buyers into a more positive frame of mind, although sadly none of the big players were bold enough to put up their weekly shout prices which have all remained at stand-on levels, writes Peter Crichton.



Although the icy grip of winter has eased a shade today, there are forecasts of more freezing weather next week and this will continue to affect pig growth rates.

Despite the upcoming Christmas/New Year holiday there could almost be a shortage of pigs on the horizon, which is not what generally happens at this time of year.

As a result although some spot abattoirs were looking to buy at circa 134p there were reports later in the day of offers of 2–4p above this, but generally on a tighter spec.

Producers selling spot cutters should be able to command prices of 145p and more in places, especially if some of the smaller fresh meat wholesalers do some last minute Christmas shopping.

Unfortunately the euro seems to be travelling in the wrong direction and has dropped from 85.16p last week to close at 83.6p this week.

Because of this drop in the value of the euro cull sow quotes drifted a penny easier and it was difficult to get more than 95p for large loads delivered in, with smaller lots or ex-farm prices not much more than 90p and this is certainly hitting the pockets of those producers who have decided to cull larger numbers of unproductive sows in the face of soa

New plant in the Philippines to cater to Japanese market
[13 December 2010] San Miguel Foods, Inc and North Star Asia Holding Corporations of the Philippines signed a memorandum of agreement (MOA) last Thursday to establish a poultry processing plant by July 2011. The plant will be located at El Salvador in Misamis Oriental within a 3.7-hectare property where it will process chicken by sections of the desired requirement in SMFI's market in Japan. It will have a capacity of processing 30,000 birds per day and expandable to 40,000.

PHILIPPINE DAIRY UPDATE
January – December 2009
 


• The dairy supply situation for 2009 is characterized by increasing local milk production and imports and
decreasing exports of milk and milk products.

The net supply stood at 272.82 million kg and was around 19 percent higher than the previous year’s net supply of 229.36 million kg. Local production and imports grew by 12.54% and 3.33% respectively while exports declined by 28.68 percent.


• For year 2009, imports of milk and dairy products increased by around 13 percent (up to 286.18 million kg from 254.29 million kg). In terms of value, it declined to a rate of 34.45 percent (from total dairy import bill of US$712.00 million to US$466.72 million in 2008 indicating a decrease in unit import cost of 41.75 percent in dollar terms and 37.60 percent in pesos. (depreciation of the peso to 7.13%).

Although milk powder constitutes the bulk of imports, this year it only accounted for 63 percent from the previous level of 67 percent. Skimmed milk powder that comprised 31percent of milk imports in 2008 was still at the same level of around 31 percent of total milk imports in 2009. However, of the milk powder, only whole milk powder posted a downtrend of around 24%.
According to FAO. despite a rebound of exports from New Zealand and South America, global exports in 2009 of the most important milk products are seen to decline 5 percent, falling to 38.6 million tons. This fall is due mainly to an estimated reduction of 3 million tons in the exports from the European Union and the United States. In these countries, where the combined exports accounted for one-third of world trade, traders were not attracted by world markets during the first half of the year, and preferred instead to stock or sell milk products in domestic markets.
On the imports side, the world market had been characterized by weak demand and prices, with a notable contraction of imports by some countries. However, with shrinking exports supplies, the end of 2009 is characterized by firmer prices, and the outlook for 2010 is for a return to the trade levels of 2008 or an increase of 5 percent.
Higher prices, and the recovery of the world economy creating a renewed interest of traders on exports markets, particularly in Asia.

According to FAO, about half of the world’s whole milk powder production is traded in the world market and the largest outlets are developing countries, still global trade of WMP of 1.9 million tons showed a decrease of about 2 percent in 2009.
Global trade in SMP is seen to fall of about 10 percent in 2009. Demand from Africa has fallen by 25%, but purchases from Southeast Asia have grown significantly, in particular due to our country’s renewed interest as well as Malaysia.
All dairy products are showing signs of strong recovery to levels not seen since August 2008. The largest increase has been displayed by butter, the price of which has doubled since February to USD 3 688/ton. However, prices for both skim milk and whole milk powder have also increased by over 90 percent to USD 3 375 and USD 3 525/ton respectively.
The causes of this rapid price rise are not fully clear, particularly in view of the large public stocks for both butter and skim milk powder available in the European Union.
However, a) stock retention combined with reduced milk output in the European Union and the United States, and b) lower growth than expected in Oceania's milk output may be contributing factors to tight export supplies.
The economic recovery underway in large Asian countries and in certain oil exporting countries may also be an important factor in renewed import demand. The sustainability of the rise in prices is uncertain, though contingent on the responses of the European Union and other exporting countries which hold dairy product stocks

Of the dairy product imports, skim milk powder as well as ready to drink milk (RTD), whey powder, buttermilk powder, butter and butterfat, cheese and condensed milk and other milk products all recorded increases in import levels. Whole milk powder recorded the highest decrease among imported dairy products at around 24% followed by cream, curd and evaporated milk. (Please refer to dairy industry statistics as Annex 1)

Ready to drink milk was higher by 7% in volume and down at 14 percent in value. It accounted still for 14% of dairy
import volume. The increase in local production of only 3%, accompanied by an increase in imports of liquid milk by 6%, resulted in 27% share of local production to total liquid milk supply (the same from the previous year level of 27%). So that, we are still at more than one out of four glasses of liquid milk supply.
• In terms of sources and value share, New Zealand accounted 49 percent to total dairy import bill. Due to stock retention combined with the reduced milk output in the European Union and the United States, Australia ranked now as second supplier followed by USA with 18 percent and 16 percent respectively.
Total tariff collected from dairy imports amounted to US$9.07 million or approximately Php432.09 million.
• The commercial milk importer/processors who re-export of reprocessed milk products to other Asian countries continued to be a robust activity in the processed milk sector.

The volume of exports reached 27.63 million kilograms, around 29% lower than the last year’s level. Whole milk powder (accounting for 85% share to total dairy exports) recorded a decrease of 35%. However, only ice cream, cream, cheese and other dairy products were the big exports during the period.

Malaysia was the top market of Phil. dairy products, accounting for 26 percent of the entire export volume and value respectively. Next was Indonesia that took 23percent of the total. For the first time, Bangladesh was included and ranked fourth with other countries of destination that include Thailand and South Africa with shares of 3%, 20% and 3% respectively.
• The dairy sector produced 3.33% more output as cow’s milk from the dairy cooperative farms as well as private individual/NGO farms grew.

Our local milk production is derived from dairy herd that had increased by 7% (34,093 head). Of this herd, dairy cattle registered an increase of 12% (to 16,949 head). There was also an increase of 14 percent in the number of dairy goats (to 3,674 head). Carabao inventory totaled to 13,470 head. By animal source, 63% of the volume of milk production was cow’s milk, 36% carabao’s milk and less than 1% goat’s milk.

Of the total milk output of 14.27 million liters, NDA-assisted projects' accounted for around 72percent or a total 10.22 million liters. Milk production increased from 26.48 MT per day to 28.01 MT per day.

Dairy recorded an 11.92% increase in gross earnings of P461.06 million as a result of higher production and farm gate price.
• The dairy sector accounted for 0.04% and 0.24% of total agricultural and livestock production value (at current prices) of Php1,188.02 billion and Php196.02 billion respectively.
NDA-PMSD3/19/10

 



 

Manitoba pig producers adopt needle free injection technology
//09 Dec 2010
The Manitoba Pork Council has announced that one fourth of all Manitoba pork producers are using needle-free delivery technology in their vaccination programs.
Pulse NeedleFree Systems has been highly successful in supporting the industry’s implementation of the Pulse technology in Manitoba over the past year. The Puratone Corporation is among the many Manitoba producers that have recently implemented the Pulse technology in their operations. Puratone, recognised as one of the most efficient pork producers in North America, markets over 500,000 hogs annually.

“The Puratone Corporation has adopted the needle-free delivery technology in response to the voice of the customer and to reduce the risks associated with conventional needling that our employees deal with every day. The expertise of Pulse NeedleFree Systems and their assistance with the training program has given us a remarkably seamless transition to this new technology,” said Lyle Loewen, Vice President Production at Puratone.

“Puratone is an industry leader that is highly focused on quality production, animal well-being and environmental stewardship. Pulse is excited to add Puratone to our growing Canadian customer base and we appreciate the confidence that they place in our company and technology,” said Edward Stevens, chief executive officer of Pulse NeedleFree Systems.

Puratone is among the many Canadian Quality Assurance certified pork producers in Manitoba that are switching to Pulse’s needle-free technology under the MAFRI “Growing Forward” program. Pulse NeedleFree Systems’ devices improve animal health and safety by avoiding needle-based disease transmission and ensuring accurate delivery of products to the target tissue. Pulse injection systems also advance food safety and eliminate the environmental sharps waste from syringes.

Related website:
Pulse NeedleFree Systems, Inc.

Chinese pork consumption levels, but numbers increase 30 Nov 2010
People in China on average do not eat more pork, but the increasing population will take total consumption to about 52 million tonnes in 2020.

The average rate of consumption of pig meat per person in China may not increase above the present level between 2010 and 2020, said Dr. Ma Cheung, Vice-Secretary General of the Chin Animal Agriculture Association at the 2nd Chinese European Pig Summit in Hannover, Germany.
 
But the growth rate of 60-70 million people per year forecast for China’s human population over this period would still take the total annual amount consumed to about 52 million tonnes by 2020.
 
Very small farms
Herd productivity is an issue for Chinese pig farmers, said Dr. Ma. Out of the 65 million farms producing pigs in China, about 62 million are extremely small.
 
But even changing the annual production of each smallholder by a single pig would mean 62 million pigs being added to or taken from the national total.
 
Restrictions on production
Livestock production in China faces an increase of restrictions aimed at protecting the environment, Dr. Ma reported.
 
Most Chinese pork at present is produced in the East of the country, but a move to more northern areas could be considered in order to gain better access to land and grain.
 
Genetic improvement
New initiatives have been launched to improve China’s pig breeding resources, said Dr. Wang Lixian, Head of the Swine Science Division at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
 
After rather slow progress in the last 10 years, the decision was taken in 2009 to re-launch the national swine genetic improvement program and in 2010 an expert group was formed to work with selected nucleus herds.
 
The plan is to focus on 50 nucleus farms with about 50,000 purebred sows for the 2010-2012 period and to double these numbers between 2013 and 2016.
 
 

Global agricultural prices sky-rocketed during October 03 Dec 2010
Tightening fundamentals and exchange rate movements played a major role in the price gains across a range of agricultural commodities. Prices now need to ration demand and encourage increased production in 2011/12.

The Rabobank Agri Commodities Monthly for October looks at the effects of global fundamentals and prices, and gives an outlook for wheat, sugar, corn and soybeans.
 
Wheat
- Weaker US dollar makes exports cheaper
- High corn prices pushing wheat into backseat
- Ukraine imposes export quotas
 
The wheat market appears to be taking a backseat to the corn market and macroeconomic factors such as the dollar.
 
Recent currency recalibrations have made US wheat the cheapest available export wheat in the world.
In the Black Sea Region the Ukraine government imposed export quotas from 18 October. In Russia, rising grain prices are now rationing demand as millers are unable to pass on higher costs.
 
Corn
- US yield downgrades likely
- Need for prices to ration demand
- Risk of Chinese imports
 
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shocked the market on 8 October by slashing their expected US corn yield and production estimates.
 
Given the USDA’s historic tendency to make further downward revisions after reducing their yield estimates in October, corn prices will need to ration demand in coming months.
 
Uncertainty remains about official Chinese stock levels. But if China has to implement a corn import programme this would further impact the world and US corn balance sheets.
 
Soybeans
- Strong global export demand
- Need to maintain price relative to corn
- La Niña weather pattern still threatens South America
 
Global soybean demand remains extremely robust, especially from China. Even with prices at new highs, there is no real evidence of demand rationing, while soybean prices have lost ground relative to corn.
 
Supply prospects in South America will be key to prices going forward. Although production risks have declined over the last month, the La Niña weather system remains in a strong/moderate phase, and will be key in determining final South American production levels through to early 2011.
 
Source: Rabobank