Thursday, April 05, 2012
Weekly Cattle Summary
AUSTRALIA - This report is a collection of weekly cattle price summaries from each Australian state by the Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA).

New South Wales
Short week lowers supply

Cattle supplies across the MLA’s NLRS reported markets decreased 21% ahead of the Easter holiday. Most of the fall in yardings occurred towards the end of the trading week, as processors anticipated limited processor demand due to the long weekend. Casino recorded the greatest drop in yardings as numbers reduced by more than half. The yarding at Goulbourn dropped 40%, while CTLX also offered fewer cattle. Forbes was the only market to record an increase in supply. The remaining markets maintained a similar offering of cattle to last week.

Once again young cattle were generally well supplied across all the markets , however overall veal supply and quality fell. There were a good proportion of cows presented but grown steers and bullocks were in reduced supply. The quality of cattle was overall fair to good, particularly in the yearling grades. Most of the northern and inland markets did report a drop in quality as cattle showed the effects of the recent dry and hot weather.

The cattle offered sold to all the usual buyers, though competition was not fervent due to the shortened processing week. The price trends across the markets varied with quality however most categories recorded a cheaper trend. An exception was in vealer heifers which managed to make some small gains. Heavy steer prices held their ground due to the limited supply.

The OTH market also recorded a cheaper trend as prices reduced across all categories. Processors required fewer consignments as the long weekend reduced slaughter capacity.

Cheaper trend

The majority of indicators decreased with yearling heifers experiencing the greatest losses. Light vealer steers to restock sold from 220¢ to 276¢ to be down by 12¢/kg. Medium weight C2 vealer steers remained in solid supply with the majority selling between 198¢ and 241¢ while those to the trade 224¢/kg. Heavy C3 vealers to process were up 3¢ to 225¢/kg. Vealer heifer prices were mostly cheaper as trade buyers secured the majority of stock. Medium weight C2 vealer heifers were 4¢ cheaper on 222¢/kg. Yearling steers to feed were dearer across the majority of categories. Medium weight dominated and ranged from 170¢ to 240¢/kg. Heavy weights were also in good numbers averaging 196¢ to be 1¢/kg higher. Yearling steers to the trade were from 204¢/kg. The majority of yearling heifers were purchased to process with the heavy weight topping 214¢/kg.

Grown cattle prices were varied, though lower overall. Medium C2 feeder steers were down 3¢ to 177¢ while those to processors were 6¢ lower at 190¢/kg. Light C3 grown heifers to processors were down 2¢ and sold around 169¢/kg. Medium D2 restocker cows made 11¢ less at 145¢ while those to processors made 127¢ being down 7¢/kg. Heavy D4 cows sold 3¢ cheaper at 149¢/kg. C2 bulls were cheaper at 154¢/kg.

South Australia
Smaller numbers

There were only two sales conducted due to the Easter Break that will see two short kill weeks and led to reduced numbers being yarded at the SALE and Naracoorte. Next week Naracoorte, Mt. Gambier and Millicent will hold sales.

The SA LE’s smaller mixed quality yarding of mainly young cattle and cows sold to fluctuating demand from the usual trade and export buyers. There was limited feeder and restocker orders operating. Most lightweight vealer steers were sourced by feeder orders at generally dearer levels, with trade purchases cheaper. The vealer heifers followed suit at lower levels to mainly trade competition. Light and medium weight yearling steers were sourced by feeders below 201¢/kg. Small lines of yearling heifers to the trade were unchanged to 5¢/kg cheaper, while the 2 to 4 score beef cows to processor demand tended to sell at basically unchanged prices.

Naracoorte’s smaller yarding contained mixed quality runs of young cattle and cows that sold to steady SA and Victorian trade and export competition. Feeder and restocker orders were active on a yarding more suitable to their requirements. While the yarding contained mainly local cattle, there were pockets of pastoral breds including some Brahman grown steers that sold at 180c/kg. Prime B muscled heavy vealers steers sold to a top of 244c/kg at improved levels, while feeder and restocker orders were very active on mainly lightweight Angus steers also at generally dearer levels. Limited numbers of yearling steers and heifers were yarded and sold at lower prices. Cows tended to lose ground as most sold to processors.

Erratic trends

The varying quality available only led to erratic trends for most categories from the limited number of trade and export buyers who were operating. Even feeder and restocker purchases were varied on the increased numbers they sourced. Most lightweight vealers to feeder and restocker inquiry sold from 195c¢ to 227¢, at prices unchanged to 18¢/kg dearer for mainly Angus steers. The trade sourced limited numbers between 193¢ and 244¢, with heavy B muscled sales 5¢/kg dearer. Vealer heifers were a little more erratic as most to the trade sold from 190¢ to 235¢/kg. This left some sales 11¢ to 13¢ dearer and others up to 50¢/kg cheaper on last week’s extremes. Feeders and restockers sourced increased numbers from 185¢ to 210¢/kg at generally lower levels. Yearling steers C3 sales were around 8¢ cheaper selling from 160¢ to 212¢, with the heifer equivalents 175¢ to 206¢ or unchanged to 3¢/kg less.

Small numbers of grown steers sold generally from 175¢ to 187¢ to be 7¢/kg cheaper. Cow prices tended to lose ground as most ranged from 133¢ to 160¢, or 260¢ to 300¢/kg cwt. This left some sales 1¢ to 3¢ dearer and others 1¢ to 3¢/kg cheaper.

West Australia
Quality mixed

There has been little change in seasonal conditions in the southern parts of the state. Temperatures were moderate with conditions remaining predominately fine and dry. This was despite the fact that a weak cold front crossed the southern corner of the country, which brought limited rain to most Agricultural regions.

Feed conditions subsequently continue to slide and with the majority of producers now calving supplementary feeding remains a daily chore on most properties in local districts. Conditions in the majority of the northern and eastern pastoral regions remain reasonable, with adequate feed levels reported.

Physical market numbers were affected by the Easter long weekend, which caused the cancellation of the Great Southern sale. Muchea’s saleyard total although marginally lower than the previous week remained moderate and the larger of the two sales held this week, while the south western sale at Boyanup continued to be reasonably limited with less than 400 head yarded.

With Muchea dominating total numbers as pastoral cattle accounted for a very healthy percentage of the weekly total. Prime drafts of local cattle in both trade and heavy weight steer and heifer categories were subsequently limited in numbers with the volumes of cows available also remaining only moderate.

Quality was mixed with the vast majority of cattle offered being in store condition. Processor demand throughout the classes remained relatively similar to previous week’s levels. Feeder and restocker demand for store classes remained very selective and quality dependant.

Cow market stable

The volumes of vealer in physical markets was only moderate with quality mixed with most producers now having sold most of last year’s drops and now down to their tail end drafts. Restocker and feeder demand throughout the weight classes in both heifers and steers were selective with quality a determinable factor in pricing levels. The tight supplies of finished trade weight yearlings were again predominately grass finished with few supplementary fed drafts available with quality in both categories mixed. Demand from the local trade and retailers however remained solid with little or no change recorded to price on prime drafts, while feeders and restockers were again active on plainer conditions consignments.

This was also the case in heavy grown steers, bullocks and heavy weight grown heifer sales with firm processor demand.

Cow quality remained mixed. Processor demand on prime heavy weight local and pastoral cows remained constant with price levels remaining similar. Both local and pastoral cows cow sales peaked at 155c/kg with the average around 148c/kg. The small numbers of heavy weight local bull sold at lower processor demand with prices reducing by 10c/kg lwt.

Queensland
Reduced supply

The supply of stock at physical markets covered by MLA’s NLRS leading into the Easter break fell 21%. Numbers at some markets early in the week increased with stock drawn from a wide area including some of the drier districts, and the Roma store sale on Tuesday also experienced a jump of 35%. However most other centres experienced smaller numbers and with no Longreach sale and the cancellation of the Roma prime sale due to the Easter break added to the downturn in supply.

Overall quality varied from centre to centre, with a fair percentage of the calves and vealers steers showing the effects of the changing season. There was also a slip in the overall standard of the export cattle at markets early in the week.

Values for young cattle experienced a mixed trend at the Roma store sale, highlighted by lightweight yearling steers which at the start of the sale met strong demand, however as the sale progressed restocker buyers become more selective and average prices fell. Calves and vealers at Warwick also eased, nevertheless by mid week despite a relatively good number of calves and vealers penned local and southern processors plus feeder and restockers were able to absorb numbers available. Prices were also able to maintain average prices close to last weeks level. A fairly good supply of yearling steers and heifers to feed generally maintained strong competition at all markets.

Heavy steers and bullocks to export slaughter experienced price reductions at early week markets and this trend continued as the week progressed. Cows also suffered falls, however losses were confined to 4¢ to 6¢/kg.

Export lines cheaper

Calves to the trade averaged close to 222¢ while those returning to the paddock averaged 227¢ with the occasional sale to 270.2¢/kg. The majority of vealer steers sold to restockers at 223¢ with a few to 248.6¢/kg. A good supply of vealer heifers sold to slaughter and feeder operators at 210¢ and a few slaughter lines made to 229.6¢/kg. A large selection of lightweight yearling steers returned to the paddock at 217¢/kg with some well bred lines to 257¢/kg. Medium weight yearling steers to feed were well supplied and most sold from 200¢ to 206¢/kg. Heavy weights to feed were also in large numbers and averaged 195¢/kg. Lightweight yearling heifers to the trade averaged 212¢ and medium weights to feed 188¢/kg. Medium weights to the local meat trade were in demand and gained 9¢ to average 195¢/kg.

Heavy steers to export slaughter across all markets averaged 3¢ less at 175¢, while the bullock portion fell 8¢ to average 176¢ with some to the wholesale meat trade at 190¢/kg. Medium weight 2 score cows averaged 5¢ cheaper at 124, and 3 scores lost 4¢ to average 140¢/kg. Good heavy cows were not as plentiful as the previous week and average prices eased 5¢ to 152¢ with the occasional sale to 164.6¢/kg.

Thursday, April 05, 2012

Beef Exports to US Hit Three Year High

AUSTRALIA - Australian beef and veal exports during March hit a three year high to the US, reaching 26,786 tonnes swt, with total shipments for March back five per cent year-on-year, at 83,373 tonnes swt.


Despite the year-on-year decline in March, Australian exports for the first quarter of 2012 were up 1.5 per cent on 2011, at 209,245 tonnes swt, according to Meat and Livestock Australia.
 
After going close in February, the US was Australia’s largest export market by volume, surpassing Japan (25,028 tonnes swt) for the first time in three years, by 1,758 tonnes swt.

However, the return of the US to Australia’s largest beef export market (albeit for only one month so far) is primarily a tale of two markets – with the volumes to the US resurgent on the back of record imported (mainly grinding) beef prices, while trading conditions to Japan continue to remain very tough.

Attracted by historically high US prices for beef so far in 2012, Australian beef shipments to the US increased 73 per cent year-on-year during March, to 26,786 tonnes swt.

The significantly higher shipments in March continued the export revival of recent months, with exports to the US up 76 per cent for the first quarter of 2012, to 61,900 tonnes swt.

However, it should also be noted that the sharp increase in exports so far in 2012 is compared with very low 2011 volumes, when exports for the calendar year were the lowest since the late 1960’s.
 
In contrast to the US, export conditions to Japan during March remained very difficult for Australian exporters – largely a combination of subdued consumer demand and increased competition from US beef, assisted by the weak US$.

At 25,028 tonnes swt, exports to Japan during March were down 21 per cent and 28 per cent on March 2011 and the five-year March average, respectively, along with being the lowest March total since 2003. For the first three months of 2012, Australian beef exports to Japan were down 17 per cent year-on-year, at 65,284 tonnes swt.
 
Similarly to Japan, an increase in the competitive position of US beef in the Korean market also impacted demand for Australian beef to Australia’s third largest beef export market.

Adding to the tough export environment, the supply of traditional Hanwoo beef has also reportedly increased in recent months, tempering demand for imported product. Australian beef exports to Korea for March were 7,921 tonnes swt – a decrease of 52 per cent on the very high March 2011 volume (16,555 tonnes swt).
 
With prices for imported beef to the US anticipated to remain high throughout April, the increase in Australian shipments is expected to be maintained in the coming weeks.

However, the outlook for both Japan and Korea is somewhat less certain, further complicated by the likely decrease in cattle throughput due to the Easter disruption to processing activities.

Corn, Rice & Wheat Imports to Continue to Meet Food Demand
05 April 2012



VENEZUELA - Venezuela is expected to continue importing significant amounts of yellow corn, rice and wheat to meet domestic food demand and requirements of the animal feed industry and to offset decreasing domestic grain production.

During the last ten years, Venezuela has increasingly turned to imports to meet its demand for food. According to the FAO figures, Venezuela imports more than 70 per cent of its food supply.
 
For grains, all the yellow corn used by the animal feed industry and almost all the wheat is imported and it is now importing about 40 per cent of its rice demand. Two years ago Venezuela began importing white corn (a product that is part of the basic diet of Venezuelans) for the first time since 1997.
 
Misguided agricultural policies were exacerbated by bad weather conditions (particularly the devastating rains of December 2010) that drastically decreased the country’s corn and sorghum production of 2011/2012. Rice production has been recovering after two years of poor harvests but imports will still be needed.
 
The Bolivarian Government of Venezuela (BGV) publically states that food production is in the national interest and is fundamental to the economic and social development of the Nation.
 
In January 2011, the BGV launched “Mission Agro-Venezuela”, which has three main goals: increase production of staple crops, increase the amount of land under production, and promote and stimulate urban agriculture.
 
The programme will provide low-interest loans, machinery, and technical assistance to farmers all over the country. A fund of one billion bolivars ($232 million) has been assigned. The government aims to cut food and agricultural imports by 30 per cent in the first year of Mission Agro-Venezuela.
 
Despite these plans to increase domestic production of feed and food, the gap between supply and demand is expected to remain large, and significant imports of basic feed and food grains will be needed to maintain consumption in the coming year and beyond. Post expects imports to continue strong, based on domestic food demand and the need for more feedstuffs by the expanding poultry and pork sectors.

Thursday, April 05, 2012
Producers Advised to Closely Monitor Feed Costs
US & CANADA - A US-based agricultural economist is advising North American pork producers to keep a close watch on production costs, writes Bruce Cochrane.
 
Dr Ron Plain, an agricultural economics professor with the University of Missouri, says one of the amazing things is just how volatile cost of production has become.

Dr Ron Plain-University of Missouri
A decade ago we had corn prices in the States stuck around two dollars per bushel give or take.

Lately we've been above six dollars a bushel.

There's a lot more feed price risk than we used to have in the hog business so producers on both sides of the border need to pay a lot of attention to that.

Then of course hog prices, a lot of volatility there and certainly always has been a lot of price risk on what producers are going to be able to sell their hogs at.

Exports are a big part of the markets for U.S. producers as it is the same for Canadian hog producers.

How the world economy goes, the Pacific Rim has been a strong growth market for pork exports from North America in the last few years.

If they continue to do well in the economies of Japan and Korea and China then there's a good chance that export demand will be strong.

That's good for hog producers and of course the domestic markets, how the economy goes here in the United States and Canada, that's the biggest market for North American meat and so whether we're going to see some better economic growth or a softening of growth is going to also impact on the bottom line for producers.

Dr Plain acknowledges USDA expects 95 million acres of corn to be planted in the US this year, the most since 1930s, and if that comes through then we might see a bit of a decline in feed costs.

Thursday, April 05, 2012
NAHMS Swine 2012 Study
US - In July 2012, the USDA’s National Animal Health Monitoring System (NAHMS), in collaboration with the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), will begin the Swine 2012 study.
 

This national study will take an in-depth look at swine operations in the United States and provide the industry with an update of information last collected during the NAHMS Swine 2006 study.

Study focus
NAHMS worked with an array of stakeholders to define the most critical information gaps to be addressed in the upcoming study. Six objectives were identified.

Describe current US swine production practices including general management practices, housing practices, productivity, disease prevention, and mortality for five phases of production: gestation, farrowing, nursery, grow/finish, and wean-to-finish.


Describe trends in swine health and management practices.


Describe antibiotic usage patterns in pigs postweaning to market to control and treat disease and promote growth.


Evaluate presence of or exposure to select pathogens and characterize isolated organisms from biological specimens (feces, sera, feed).


Update estimates of the economic cost of select respiratory, neurologic, gastrointestinal, systemic, and foodborne pathogens found in commercial swine herds and create estimates of the economic cost of different treatment approaches.

Study activities for participants with 100 or more pigs
Participants with an inventory of 100 or more pigs in 13 States (see map above) will be asked to provide important health management and productivity information to characterize management practices in the swine industry. Fecal, blood, and other biological specimens will be collected for analysis on a subset of operations. Data collection will begin in July 2012.

Representatives from NASS will visit or telephone randomly selected swine operations to complete a questionnaire.


NASS will identify producers interested in the next phase of the NAHMS Swine 2012 study administered by APHIS.


Beginning in September 2012, interested producers will be contacted by APHIS personnel for a follow-up interview.


Biological specimens will be collected on a subset of operations. Fecal samples will be evaluated for the presence of enteric bacteria that are considered to be foodborne pathogens. Blood samples will be tested for evidence of host exposure to selected swine pathogens.
Study activities for participants with fewer than 100 pigs
Participants on operations with an inventory of fewer than 100 pigs in 31 States (AL, AR, AZ, CA, CO, FL, GA, HI, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, MN, MO, MS, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, WA, and WI) will be asked to provide important health management information about their operations. Data collection will begin in July 2012.

NASS will mail a short questionnaire tailored to smaller operations and, if necessary, follow up by telephone to assist in completing that questionnaire.

Benefits to the US pork industry from the Swine 2012 study
In-depth reports and information sheets will provide a national snapshot of current management, health, and productivity of the US swine herd.


Laboratory test results for biological specimens collected during the study will be returned to participating producers, such as PRRS results for serum collected from sows and finishers or Salmonella results from fecal samples.


Serum aliquots will be added to the serum bank (established in 1990) and made available to address emerging diseases or to elucidate the epidemiology of endemic diseases.


Objective data on antibiotic usage patterns in pigs postweaning to market will inform those engaged in the national debate on the use of antibiotics in swine.


Broad geographic representation of the health status of US pigs (e.g., concerning toxoplasmosis and trichinellosis) will be used to facilitate trade and enhance the US position in international markets.


Scientifically valid estimates of productivity will be used to assess the economic impact of PRRS on the swine industry.


National estimates spanning nearly 25 years will help assess changes in swine management, health, and productivity.

Foodborne pathogens isolated on-farm will be characterized, including isolation rates, serotypes, and resistance patterns for enteric pathogens.
A scientific approach
NAHMS collects and reports accurate and useful information on animal health and management in the United States. Since 1990, NAHMS has developed national estimates on disease prevalence and other factors related to the health of US beef cattle, sheep, goat, dairy cattle, swine, equine, poultry, and catfish populations. The science-based results produced by NAHMS have proven to be of considerable value to the US livestock, poultry, and aquaculture industries as well as to other animal health stakeholders. NAHMS studies are

National in scope,
Science based,
Statistically valid,
Collaborative,
Voluntary, and
Confidential.
Confidentiality
Because NAHMS studies rely on voluntary participation, the privacy of every participant is protected. Only those collecting the data know the identity of the respondent. No name or contact information will be associated with individual data, and no data will be reported in a way that could reveal the identity of a participant. Data are presented only in an aggregate manner.

Thursday, April 05, 2012
H1N1 Detected in Hong Kong Slaughterhouse
HONG KONG - H1N1 was detected in Hong Kong’s slaughterhouse during regular influenza virus surveillance for pigs in Hong Kong’s slaughterhouse. Despite the detection of pandemic H1N1 in pigs in Hong Kong, it is unlikely that Hong Kong will impose any import suspension of pork or pigs in the future on the grounds of H1N1 concerns.


The Hong Kong government did not take any trade action against pig or pork imports in 2009 when there existed the threat of H1N1. The report did not identify the origin of the infected hogs as either imported from China or raised locally.

To monitor influenza virus activity in pigs, the University of Hong Kong has conducted a regular influenza surveillance program for over a decade. The Center for Food Safety, the food safety authority in Hong Kong, assists the program by collecting blood and tracheal and nasal swabs from pigs in the major slaughterhouse twice a month. (This is the only major slaughterhouse in Hong Kong slaughtering over 3,000 pigs each day and accounting for over 80 per cent of the daily production in the territory. The other two slaughterhouses slaughter less than 20 per cent of Hong Kong’s daily pig supplies. Hong Kong has a daily consumption of about 4,500 pigs. Imports from China account for over 95 per cent while the rest is supplied by local pig farms).

According to the latest surveillance report, 1,500 samples were collected and tested from mid-October 2011 to January 2012, one sample tested positive for the human swine influenza virus (pandemic H1N1). A total of 27 samples were found to contain viruses that were essentially swine influenza viruses but had picked up some genes of human swine influenza virus. Among them, two samples were detected with swine influenza, H3N2, while the remaining 25 samples had H1N2.

The University of Hong Kong has been monitoring swine influenza over a decade and pandemic H1N1 was first detected in samples obtained in the slaughterhouse in October 2009. The human swine influenza virus then has been occasionally found in the regular surveillance exercise.

The University professor who is in charge of the surveillance commented that with the wide transmission of the pandemic H1N1 virus in humans, detection of the virus in pigs is no surprise. He added that positive findings might continue to appear from time to time in future. The government’s announcement also relayed the professor’s comments that “there have been similar reports from many parts of the world showing that swine influenza viruses carried the genes of the human swine influenza virus. Such viruses are unlikely to pose any major human health risk or cause problems in food safety."

Unlike China, Hong Kong did not ban any pork imports from the U.S. in 2009 because of H1N1 outbreak. Given the findings of pandemic H1N1 virus in Hong Kong and the government’s relaying the expert’s message that the viruses are unlikely to cause problems in food safety, the Hong Kong government is unlikely to impose ban on pork imports from places where there are H1N1 cases.

The Hong Kong government has assured the public about food safety in pork by relaying the message from the World Health Organization that “human swine influenza will not be contracted by consuming pork and pork products that are handled properly and thoroughly cooked.” The Hong Kong Center for Food Safety advises the public that it is safe to eat pork and pork products that are cooked to an internal temperature of 70 degrees Celsius or above.

To further assure the public of food safety in pork, the Hong Kong Center for Food Safety, alongside the announcement of the detection of pandemic H1N1, reminded the public that all imported live pigs from China come from registered farms and are accompanied with animal health certificates issued by the Mainland Chinese authorities. Furthermore, Hong Kong officers from the Center inspect the certificates and health of the imported pigs at the boundary control points. Both imported and local pigs have to go through ante-mortem and post-mortem inspections in slaughterhouses. Only pigs that pass the inspections can be supplied to the market and sold for consumption.

Thursday, April 05, 2012
Help from Southern Hemisphere for English Pigs
UK - Australian pig expert Dr Paul Hughes will reveal the latest knowledge on pig reproduction next month at two special BPEX Two-Tonne Sow events for English pig producers. ‘Reproduction: What’s New?’ will be held in Chippenham and Wetherby on the evenings of 9 and 10 May 2012.
 
When Paul visited two years ago, his meetings were a sell-out success. He provides a clear and often challenging view on the practicalities of breeding herd management and how to improve performance, drawing on years of pig farming experience and his research at the South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI).

BPEX knowledge transfer manager Angela Cliff said: “New ideas and advice on how they can be put into practice are invaluable, as we move the English industry nearer to the two-tonne sow goal.

“We’re really looking forward to this update and are thrilled to offer producers the chance to talk with Paul directly.”

The topics for both meetings are:

Gestation management (housing and feeding)
Seasonal infertility
Feeding for litter size
Lactational oestrus
There will be an open discussion afterwards, troubleshooting problems commonly seen out in the field, including a small panel of English pig industry representatives; Mick Hazzeldine from Premier Nutitrion and Dr Steven Jagger from ABN will be among those on the panels on 9 and 10 May respectively.

Wednesday, April 04, 2012
Cattle Prices Expected to be Lower in 2012
AUSTRALIA - According to the latest National Australia Bank (NAB) Rural Commodities Wrap, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) is still expected to decline during 2012, albeit by less than the 5.6% forecast earlier in the year.

NAB forecasts the EYCI to fall 3.6 per cent year-on-year, which would result in an average of 382¢/kg cwt for 2012.

Underpinning the expected decline in average cattle prices is the predicted rise in Australian beef production, which is forecast to increase 0.6 per cent in 2011-12 and a further 2.1 per cent in 2012-13. The report also highlights the strength of the A$ as a challenge to prices.

However, helping to maintain prices is the expectation that global beef production will contract for the fifth consecutive year in 2012, according to USDA forecasts. This tight supply is likely to push beef prices higher in Australia’s key competitor markets, notably the US and South America.

While cattle prices are expected to ease during 2012, NAB predicts an improvement in lamb prices from current levels. Historically tight global supplies are the underlying factor in the expected price rise.

Wednesday, April 04, 2012
Massive Growth in Meat Exports
UK - Exports of livestock products rose to £2.325 billion in 2011, an increase of 22 per cent from 2010, according to data released by EBLEX and BPEX.
 

In 2006, the first year following the resumption of beef exports, total livestock product exports represented only £1.032 billion.

Carcase meat exports make up the vast majority of these exports, with beef representing 18.8 per cent, lamb and mutton 16.3 per cent, poultry 13.1 per cent and pork 7.4 per cent of the total value. The fastest growing category is beef offal, sales of which have more than doubled over the last two years. The fastest growing export region is the Far East.

Jean-Pierre Garnier, export manager for EBLEX and BPEX, said: “These impressive figures vindicate our efforts and those of individual exporters to boost exports of livestock products over the last few years.

“Global forces such as tight supply and a favourable exchange rate have certainly played a part in increasing our export opportunities, however without strategic planning and hard work we would not be in a position to take advantage of the situation.

“We are particularly pleased to see such positive results from our activities around offal and by-products as well as our joint initiatives with Government to open new markets.

“With a strong export plan in place for 2012-13, we can foresee further expansion not only in our core Western European markets but also in the Far East, Sub-Saharan Africa and many other markets.”

“There is certainly a high level of enthusiasm and confidence among meat exporters which augurs well for the future.”

Wednesday, April 04, 2012
China Becomes Biggest Grocery Market
CHINA - China has overtaken the United States (US) as the world’s biggest food and grocery retail market, according to the latest research published today (Wednesday) by IGD.


According to the findings the Chinese grocery sector was worth £607bn at the end of 2011, while the US market came in at £572bn over the same period – the second largest in the world.

By 2015, the Chinese market is forecast to be worth £918bn compared to a US value of £675bn.

Between 2011 and 2015, the US grocery retail market should see growth accelerating to reach a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2 per cent, but China’s rate will be double this at 10.9 per cent over the same period.

All the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) nations will be in the top five grocery markets by 2015, with India displacing Japan as the world’s third largest grocery market by value.

Joanne Denney-Finch, chief executive, IGD, said: “China’s grocery growth story is phenomenal. Between 2006 and 2015, the Chinese grocery market is forecast to triple in value and to be worth nearly a trillion pounds. This rapid expansion has been fuelled by three main factors: rapid economic growth, population and rising food inflation.

“Despite its various logistical and bureaucratic challenges, China is a crucial growth market for many of the world’s largest grocery retailers. Even beyond the major cities there are huge opportunities: forecasts suggest there will be over 200 Chinese cities with a population over a million people by 2025. But given China’s size and diversity, it’s essential not to treat the country as one homogenous market.

“All the BRIC nations have been steadily increasing in value and by 2015 they are tipped to dominate the top five grocery slots, and many UK food and grocery companies are already pursuing this opportunity."

Wednesday, April 04, 2012
CME: Hog Weights Near Record; No Sign of Decline
US - There is an ongoing, active debate in the hog/pork sector regarding the status of current hog supplies and the implications that may have to supplies for at least the next six months, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.


At the heart of the debate is the impact of disease and weather on hog numbers in general and the number of market-ready hogs in recent weeks in particular. First, let’s review the pertinent facts. Hog slaughter has fallen well short of levels implied by the December Hogs and Pigs report in all but two weeks since January 1.

This is obvious in the chart below which shows weekly hog slaughter for 2012 as implied by the original December numbers and the numbers from last Friday’s March quarterly report. Actual YTD slaughter has been 2.5% lower than the December data’s predicted level.

Friday’s report implies very little change to weekly slaughter totals versus the December report. The only real differences between the numbers are for March — where actual slaughter still came in below the level implied by USDA’s 180-pound and over inventory — and for a few weeks in September. Based on actual Q1 slaughter, the March forecasts give an annual FI slaughter of 110.326 million head where the December report implied slaughter of 111.057 million head. And virtually all of the difference is, so far, in Q1.

Hog weights are near record large and not declining in their normal seasonal manner. The bottom chart at right shows average carcass weights for the barrows and gilts whose prices are reported to USDA under the mandatory price reporting (MPR) system. These are top barrows and gilts only. We suspect there are NO light-weight of “off” hogs in it since the smaller plants that usually process those animals are not covered by MPR, but we do not know that for sure. We feel very confident in saying that hardly any “off” hogs are included in this average, so it is usually a good gauge of the currentness of producer marketings.

The current debate is whether we are ultra-current in our marketings due to this winter’s mild weather or see marketings that are lagging due to lower packer margins and a resulting lack of enthusiasm to run plants at full capacity. The “ultra-current” argument is based on anecdotal evidence that rates of gain have been excellent this winter. That is a bit surprising since we thought modern confinement systems had removed outside temperature as a key variable in performance. Big snow events still have an impact by causing logistical problems that can result in some out-of-feed events that slow performance. We thought lower winter temps would primarily impact financial performance through reduced propane costs, not through improved gains since barns would have been warm anyway. But the data say different, we hear. Counter-seasonally high weights support this “rapid gain” position.

But if hogs are indeed growing faster this winter, why have slaughter numbers been LOWER than expected? Higher-than-normal growth rates should mean MORE hogs coming to market, not fewer. And that is especially true if weights are increasing, implying that we are not getting them slaughtered quickly enough.

The “backing them up” argument would point to higher weights and lower slaughter as evidence that packers have reduced harvests due to this year’s lower margins. But how does one explain strong hog prices relative to the cutout value? Wouldn’t packers have aggressively reduced hog bids to keep margins more solid if pigs were coming to market faster than expected? Packer margins were close to historic levels until mid-March but even those margins were $20/head lower than one year earlier.

One obvious conclusion is simply that the 50 to179 lb. inventories in the December report were high. What about < 50? Intentions? And there is more. The dip in market weights seen in July 2011 was due to last summer’s six weeks of extreme heat. We understand that that heat wave caused some significant breeding problems that led to fewer-than-expected litters in November and December.

Those lower pig numbers should hit in late April. Will the declines be larger than “normal” as shown in the top chart? Finally, were PRRS (porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome) death losses larger, as many believe at present, than their normal level? If so, numbers could get tighter than indicated here in June and July.

By all accounts,USA will plant record acres of corn for this coming 2012 season due mainly to record corn prices,good for the corn producers but sad news for those feeding livestocks.Once you add into the picture that fuel prices will also rise by summer this is a double blow for those involved in livestock production and will force some to leave agriculture altogether.Every time people leave livestock production this is usually followed by higher imports to make up for losses of local production which is not good for local produced products for the long term.Tough enough with all the free trade agreements signed between most countries today,one countries loss becomes another countries gain and to try and produce against countries that practice industrial farming practices,double blow.Will be interesting to follow the trend for livestock production in country for the coming 2012 season overall.The problems will livestock production is all the other outside forces that the average producer has no control over but must find creative ways to try and keep his/her head above water or leave the industry and look for something else.We are all in this together and there are no easy solutations to the ongoing problems of livestock production today.Not easy to be a livestock producer in this day and age.

Dairy Cows Have individual temperaments
From a young age, dairy cows react differently from each other to stimuli from their surroundings. An animal’s temperament determines how it reacts in stressful situations, but may also influence its general health. In the future, temperament could be bred as a selective trait to improve the robustness and wellbeing of dairy cows. This is the conclusion reached by zootechnician Kees van Reenen, who will receive a PhD from the University of Groningen on 30 March 2012.


Mr Van Reenen studied black-and-white Holstein-Friesian cows as they developed from calf to cow. He carried out behavioural tests and physiological examinations in order to determine how the animals react to external stimuli. He focused on the following, among others: fear responses, lowing (vocalisation), stamping, pulse and the release of cortisol as the external characteristics of underlying traits – including timidity, the need for social contact and movement – that, taken together, determine the temperament.

Jerry can
In order to study the differences in the reactions, Mr Van Reenen subjected the animals to potentially stressful situations, namely securing them with a halter for a short period, separating them from the rest of the herd, and confronting them with a person or unfamiliar object.

The unfamiliar object he used was a jerry can. "In this test, the calf or cow enters an empty room in which, after a few minutes, a coloured jerry can appears using a pulley," Mr Van Reenen explained.

"The differences between the animals’ responses were very clear: some of them made contact with the jerry can after just a few seconds, while others didn’t dare to approach it at all during the ten-minute test."

Anxiolytic drug
Mr Van Reenen was also able to measure the fear response physiologically: the animals that investigated the jerry can thoroughly and for the longest time had lower levels of the stress hormone cortisol in their blood than the animals that were more cautious. In order to prove that the caution was indeed a fear response, Mr Van Reenen administered an anxiolytic drug (Brotizolam) to the animals.

"The length of contact with the jerry can increased considerably in the animals that had been given an anti-anxiety drug, and the cortisol levels fell more quickly after the test."

Lowing
Although lowing could be easily interpreted as a fear response in the first instance, this was not the case.

"The frequency of the lowing did not change when the Brotizolam was administered. Apart from that, calves that lowed a great deal when separated from others in the herd had a higher milk yield when they were milked for the first time later, as heifers, than the animals that were less vocal. Therefore, lowing is not a fear response, but probably a form of social behaviour: a sign that they like to be near other cows. Animals that exhibit this behaviour could benefit from social contact with other animals in stressful situations – when they are being milked, for example."

Robustness
Notably, the differences in temperament in individual animals proved consistent throughout the research period. "This shows that temperament is a stable underlying trait in the animal. We know from research into other species, such as coal tits and rats, that temperament can influence an animal’s health and wellbeing. If that also applies to dairy cows, temperament could be bred as a selective trait to produce robust animals, in the same way as traits such as good bone structure, fertility and low susceptibility to mastitis," he said.

March 2012

Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Massive Growth for Meat Exports

UK - Exports of livestock products rose to £2.325 billion in 2011, an increase of 22 per cent from 2010, according to data released by EBLEX and BPEX.
 
In 2006, the first year following the resumption of beef exports, total livestock product exports represented only £1.032 billion.

Carcase meat exports make up the vast majority of these exports, with beef representing 18.8 per cent, lamb and mutton 16.3 per cent, poultry 13.1 per cent and pork 7.4 per cent of the total value. The fastest growing category is beef offal, sales of which have more than doubled over the last two years. The fastest growing export region is the Far East.

Jean-Pierre Garnier, export manager for EBLEX and BPEX, said: “These impressive figures vindicate our efforts and those of individual exporters to boost exports of livestock products over the last few years.

“Global forces such as tight supply and a favourable exchange rate have certainly played a part in increasing our export opportunities, however without strategic planning and hard work we would not be in a position to take advantage of the situation.

“We are particularly pleased to see such positive results from our activities around offal and by-products as well as our joint initiatives with Government to open new markets.

“With a strong export plan in place for 2012-13, we can foresee further expansion not only in our core Western European markets but also in the Far East, Sub-Saharan Africa and many other markets.”

“There is certainly a high level of enthusiasm and confidence among meat exporters which augurs well for the future.”

HMRC export statistics show carcase meat exports in 2011 totalled £1.713. EBLEX estimates exports of other livestock products, including offals and hides and skins, totalled £0.612 billion.

Tuesday, April 03, 2012
Winter Precipitation and Corn Yield
US - Due to the very warm temperatures in the winter of 2011-12, we recently examined the relationship between average winter temperatures and average temperatures the following summer and the relationship between average winter temperatures and corn yield, write Scott Irwin and Darrel Good.


We showed that the correlation between average winter temperature and both average summer temperature and average state yield is small for Illinois and Iowa. Here we extend the analysis to the relationship between total state average precipitation during December, January, and February and the total precipitation in the following July and August. In addition, we examine the relationship between the total winter precipitation and the trend-adjusted corn yield the following year.Once again, the analysis is conducted for Illinois and Iowa (the two largest corn producing states) over the period 1960 through 2011.

The relationship between total winter and summer precipitation is presented in Figures 1 and 2. The correlations indicate a slight negative relationship between winter and summer precipitation in Illinois and virtually no relationship in Iowa (correlations can vary between -1 and +1, with zero indicating no relationship). The weakness of the relationships is most evident in the wide scatter of data points around each line. Winters with above- and below-average precipitation are associated with a wide range of precipitation the following summer.

 


Given the slight relationship between winter and summer precipitation in Illinois and Iowa, it would not be surprising to find little relationship between winter precipitation and the state average trend-adjusted corn yield the following year. That expectation is confirmed by Figures 3 and 4, which actually show a small negative relationship between average winter precipitation and trend-adjusted average state yield. Nonetheless, in contrast to winter temperatures, there is a logical reason to think that winter precipitation should actually be positively related to corn yields. Specifically, winter precipitation contributes to the preseason charging of soil moisture reserves, which ultimately contributes to higher yields. If one excludes several outliers from the plots (1983, 1988, and 1993) there is indeed a small positive relationship between winter precipitation and corn yield in both states. This is what we found in our previous modeling work on corn yields with the use of a more complete model specification. It is, of course, important to keep in mind that the impact of precipitation before the growing season is small compared to precipitation during the growing season. The yield impact of moving from the minimum to the maximum winter precipitation observed over 1960-2012 in both states is at most 5 bushels per acre.

 


Conclusion
There is little correlation between winter weather (temperature or precipitation) and summer weather. This is consistent with the view that, beyond seasonal tendencies, weather is very difficult to predict over time horizons longer than a few weeks. There may be some predictability over longer horizons due to so-called ENSO events (e.g., El Nino and La Nina), but the reliability of such patterns for predicting U.S. Corn Belt growing season conditions is still open to considerable debate.

In contrast to winter temperature, winter precipitation is likely to have a small impact on corn yields in the following growing season. The available data indicate December, January, and February precipitation in Illinois (6.8 inches) was near average and in Iowa (4.3 inches) above average. Preliminary data indicates March was drier than average. On balance, this suggests little impact of winter 2012 precipitation relative to trend yield in either state.