Reneces

Best of luck with your goat venture and please post any/all your experiences with your goats.

Wise to do your homework first before investing hard earned cash.

Farmers Feed The World:

Corn prices to remain high following poor Russian wheat harvest
[24 September 2010] The failure of the Russian wheat harvest will push corn prices as high as USD 6/bushel before the end of the year predicted Dr Paul Aho, an international consulting poultry economist, at the first meeting of the Arbor Acres Asia Association in Macau. Over 50 Arbor Acres breeders heard Dr Aho further predict that prices would ease a little in 2011 but never retreat to the levels of the early 2000s.


 
International seed giants expand in China
[24 September 2010] International seed industry giants, such as Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc. and Monsanto, are focusing heavily on the Chinese market. Pioneer Hi-Bred has already set up three seed breeding center in China's major corn production areas. One of its corn varieties has become one of China's major corn varieties in three years. In the first six months of this year, the seed sales of Pioneer Hi-Bred in China rose by 15%. Monsanto also operates three joint ventures, three fully-owned subsidiaries, and one research center in China's Mainland. Up to 10% of the company's revenues are used for R&D. 

Well that all depends on the general health of the animal.I would think the buck could produce for many, many years providing he is in good health.Teeth can be a problem,if his teeth are ground down then, maybe around 7-8 years.

You might try your local DA office for advise.

Meat imports hurt local producers
[24 September 2010] Pork imports into the Philippines from January to July 2010 totaled 115 million kg exceeding the entire 2009 imports of 114 million kg. Chicken imports too have surged in the first seven months and is close to surpassing last year’s total imports of 67 million kg. It is expected that buffalo meat imports would also further rise with the coming Christmas holidays. Pig and chicken farms are reeling from the entry of cheaper imported meat and there have been suggestions that the government curb the rising pork and chicken imports as it is hurting the local livestock and poultry sectors.

Farming is about producing commodities and all commodities rise and fall depending on many factors.The comsumer is more buying saavey and will always look for the best possible deal for their protein sources.But as production cost rise and the farmgate prices fall,we all must decide what is in our best interest.We have seen in the past some will decide to exit the market.Producers tend to shy away from falling markets and look for other commodities to invest in.

We all the face the same problems worldwide when it comes to farming.Some of us will stay the course and trim our overhead expenses and ride out the downward trends and wait for our respected market to return to healthier times.

Not sure what the Govt. can really do for the average producer?

Work Starts on First Large-Scale Pig Complex
VIET NAM - Work has started on the country's first large-scale industrial-agricultural complex in Dong Nai province.



Construction of the Dong Nai Food Industry Corporation (Dofico) industrial-agricultural complex began in Xuan Loc district in Dong Nai province on 19 September, opening up new prospects for domestic agricultural production, reports Vietnam Business.

This is the country's first modern complex to be built oriented toward the commodity economy and with a self-contained manufacturing cycle meeting international standards.

The complex will serve as one of the venues through which farm produce from Dong Nai and its adjacent provinces can penetrate the world market, thus helping to promote the trademarks of hi-tech agricultural products.

The Dofico complex comprises five areas, for husbandry, cultivation, food processing, hi-tech agriculture and trade. It has a total investment of 1.96 trillion dong (VND) and is expected to be operational in five years.

On this occasion, the DOFICO company awarded VND3.55 billion to local schools in Xuan Loc and Thong Nhat districts.

Dofico is developing the 'agropark' with the Glon Group from France for the production and processing of livestock, according to AsianAgriBiz. The project covers more than 2,000 hectares. The construction will be done in two phases with the first one, worth VND1.4 trillion (US$70 million), due for completion in 2013. Once fully operational, the facility will supply up to one million pigs annually for processing into a variety of pork products for domestic and export markets.

US Pork Outlook - September 2010
Pig prices are expected to be supported by lower pork supplies and respectable consumer demand for pork products for the rest of this year, according to Rachel J. Johnson in the latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook from the USDA's Economic Research Service.

 

Summary
For the balance of 2010, hog prices are expected to be supported by lower pork supplies and respectable consumer demand for pork products. The third-quarter price of live equivalent 51-52 per cent lean hogs is expected to average $59-$60 per hundredweight (cwt). Prices are expected to average $51-$53 per cwt in the fourth quarter. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be issued by USDA/NASS on 24 September 2010.

US Variety Meat Exports and the Global Marketplace
Variety meats may not make up the ‘heart’ of the US meat industry, given that dishes such as beef tongue or pig heart do not typically grace American dinner tables, write Daniel L. Marti and Rachel J. Johnson. In fact, these and other variety meats are often considered to be inferior food in US markets. Nonetheless, variety meat from beef and pork slaughter is important to the bottom line of the US meat industry. This is evident in both the value that variety meat adds to the US meat industry and the volume of sales into the variety meat channel.

Animal by-products are items produced as a result of animal slaughter and include portions of the entire animal that are not part of the dressed carcass. In the United States, animal by-products fall into two categories: edible and inedible offal. Variety meats are a subcategory of edible offal consisting of the liver, heart, tongue, tail, kidney, brain, sweetbreads (thymus and/or pancreas gland, depending on animal’s age), tripe (stomach), chitlings and natural casings (intestines), fries (testicles), rinds, head meat, lips, fats and other trimmings and blood (Ockerman and Hansen, 1998). Some edible offal is also used to make gelatin, sausage casings and rennin used in cheese-making. These products are all part of the US meat industry, but just how important are they?

The supply of edible offal produced in the United States is relatively large in comparison with its domestic demand. US demand for edible offal stems from consumption of products such as sausages and hot dogs and the use of variety meats in pet food. The remainder is available for shipment to foreign markets where they are more highly valued. While carcasses and high-value cuts comprise the majority of total red meat exports, edible offal exports have constituted about 22 per cent of the volume of total beef- and pork-product exports over the last five years. The United States has historically been the world’s largest exporter of beef and pork edible offal, accounting for more than 18 per cent of total world exports over the last 10 years (Figure 1). US pork edible offal exports were nearly 20 per cent of total pork exports in 2009, and over 24 per cent of total US beef exports last year were edible offal.

 
Variety meats in some countries are considered delicacies, while in other countries, their consumption is associated with low incomes (Halstead, 1999). However, in many regions variety meats are the basis of traditional flavors. Demand for variety meats is especially strong in many Asian nations. In China, most recipes call for sharp-tasting variety meats, not muscle cuts, which are considered bland (Hayes, 1997); cow tongues are considered expensive delicacies in Japan; sliced beef feet are used for soup in South Korea; and stomachs, lungs, and livers are highly valued meats in Colombia (Bean, 1996). Tongue and liver are used in many Mexican dishes, such as putzaze (tripe and liver with tomatoes), lengua (tongue with green chilies) and menudo norteña (tripe soup). However, in Russia, one of the world’s largest offal importers, variety meats are connected to lower incomes and used as an inexpensive way to obtain protein and nutrition (Kamenski, 2006).

Pork variety meat exports and markets
Mexico is by far the largest importer of US pork variety meats, accounting for 46 per cent over the last decade (Figure 2). Other major destinations of US exports include Hong Kong/China, Russia, Japan and South Korea. However, many of these markets have developed only in recent years. Since 2008, Hong Kong/China has begun to rival Mexico as the number one export market for US pork variety meats in terms of volume. In this study, Hong Kong and China are considered as one export destination because much of the US product is transshipped from Hong Kong to China (Bean, 1996). Until 2007, exports of all US variety meats to Hong Kong/China were marginal but last year, US exports of pork variety meat to Hong Kong/China jumped to almost 123,000 metric tons (MT), 32 per cent of all US pork variety meat exports.

 
Major US pork variety meat exports over the last five years include hog feet (14 per cent of US pork offal exports), fresh or chilled offal (11 per cent), rinds (10 per cent) and all other frozen offal (56 per cent) (Figure 3). In terms of the destinations for these products, Mexico imported over 94 per cent of all US-exported pork rinds and 76 per cent of US fresh or chilled pork offal exports, Russia was by far the largest purchaser of US hog liver exports in 2009, and Hong Kong/China also was the number one importer of US hog feet, pig tongues and pig-heart exports last year.

 
Looking ahead
Protein intake is often dependent upon income, as are the types of proteins consumed. Increasing per-capita incomes and rising GDP may have varied affects on consumption and trade of variety meats, depending on how the products are viewed in each country.

In countries such as Egypt and Japan, where certain variety meats are more highly valued, increasing wealth and GDP growth may result in increased US variety meat exports. Egyptian demand should remain strong since the country has a younger population, a relatively high rate of economic growth compared with world growth, and a limited capacity to expand domestic production, factors likely to support growth in demand for beef products (Kamenski, 2006). As incomes rise in other countries, certain variety meats may begin to be viewed as inferior goods, which may cause US variety meat exports to decline in some segments of these markets. In portions of the Mexican, Russian and Chinese markets, for example, variety meat consumption may give way to increasing consumption of muscle cuts as tastes and preferences change. However, preferences in other countries for certain culinary traditions – which are strongly tied to variety meat use – will continue to play an integral role in demand for US variety meat exports.

US Feed Outlook - September 2010
A decrease in corn production for 2010 has been seen from last month, according to the USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS).

 

US feed grain supplies for 2010/11 are decreased this month with lower forecast corn and sorghum production, reflecting lower yields based on September 1 conditions. Corn feed and residual use is decreased with the larger crop, but exports are increased because of rising world demand for coarse grains. Global coarse grain supplies for 2010/11 are projected down, with reduced foreign and US production. With lower feed grain production, 2010/11 prices for corn, sorghum, and barley are projected higher.


Feed Grain Supply and Use Down
US feed grain production in 2010/11 is forecast at 349.1 million metric tons, down 5.4 million from a month ago and up slightly from 2009/10. Corn and sorghum production are both down from last month. Forecast beginning stocks are down 900,000 tons from last month and down 7.3 million from last year. Feed grain supplies in 2010/11 are forecast at 390.7 million tons, down 6.5 million from last month due to lower carryin for corn and decreased yield forecasts for corn and sorghum. Feed grain supplies are down 7.6 million tons from last year.

Total feed grain use in 2010/11 is projected down 1.3 million tons this month to 358.7 million. Total use is up slightly from 2009/10. Lower feed and residual use is partially offset by higher exports for both corn and sorghum. Feed grain use in food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use remains unchanged for 2010/11.

For 2009/10, feed grain use for FSI is raised 900,000 tons this month due to increased corn use for ethanol production. Exports are also raised slightly to 54.7 million this month,reflecting increasing shipments to date of corn, partially offset by lower sorghumexports. This lowers projected ending stocks to 39.7 million tons for 2009/10.

Feed Use
When converted to a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2010/11 is projected to total 145.1 million tons, down 2.9 million from last month and down 3 per cent from the 2009/10 forecast of 149.7 million. Corn is estimated to account for 92 per cent of the feed and residual use in 2010/11, down from 94 per cent in 2009/10.

The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) for 2010/11 is expected to slightly increase from the 2009/10 forecast of 91.5 million units. The grain used per GCAU in 2010/11 is expected to be 1.58 tons, down from 1.64 tons in 2009/10. In the index components, GCAUs are increased for dairy and beef but decreased for poultry from last month.

Milk producers continue to add cows to the herd, and inventories are forecast to increase into mid-2011; however, according to USDA’s 18 August Milk Production report, current inventories of milk cows still remain lower than those of last year. With increased milk production in 2011, feed use by the dairy industry is expected to be stronger.

The decrease in beef production is attributed, according to USDA’s 20 August Cattle on Feed report, to lower placements of cattle into feedlots and reduced cattle marketings. In addition, higher feed prices are encouraging cattle producers to keep cattle on forage longer, thus reducing feed needs for the cattle on feed relative to last month.

USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on 24 September and will provide an indication of sow farrowing intentions into early 2011. Higher feed prices are expected to slow pork production gains and reduce feed use.

USDA’s Broiler Hatchery report on 8 September indicated that broiler-type eggs sets and chicks placed have been increasing. Cumulative placements of broiler flock are up 1 per cent from last year. However, with a shorter production cycle than red meats, broiler production is expected to respond more quickly to the higher grain prices and thus more quickly reduce feed needs. Inventory of egg-type chicks hatched that will produce table or market-type eggs has increased 5 per cent from last year, based on USDA’s 23 August Chickens and Eggs report. However, egg production in 2011 is projected to be unchanged from last month.

The lower feed prices in early 2010 have encouraged turkey producers to expand output for 2011 after reducing production in both 2009 and 2010. The increase in feed prices for 2011 is expected to temper production gains. Thus, feed use by the industry may be reduced slightly.

Corn Yield Cut, Record Crop Forecast
Corn production in 2010 is forecast at 13.160 billion bushels, down 205 million from last month but still 50 million bushels above 2009. Based on 1 September conditions, the average corn yield is forecast at 162.5 bushels per acre, compared with 165.0 bushels per acre last month and the estimated yield of 164.7 bushels per acre in 2009.

 


The 1 September corn objective yield data indicate the second highest number of ears per acre on record for the combined 10 objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin), only behind the record year of 2009. Record-high ear counts are forecast in Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Beginning stocks were lowered 40 million bushels this month to 1.386 billion. Forecast 2010/11 corn use was decreased 50 million bushels from last month to 13.440 billion, up 35 million from expected use in 2009/10. Exports were increased 50 million bushels to 2.100 billion as a result of reduced foreign supplies and increased global demand for feed grains. Feed and residual use of corn was lowered 100 million bushels to 5.250 billion because of lower supplies and higher prices. FSI use of corn remains unchanged at 6.090 billion bushels for 2010/11.

Projected corn ending stocks for 2009/10 are lowered 40 million bushels from last month to 1.386 billion. FSI use is raised 35 million bushels to 5.900 billion. This increase is in corn used for ethanol, based on record July and August production of gasoline blends with ethanol as reported by the Energy Information Administration.

Reflecting decreased supplies and tighter ending stocks, the forecast corn price for 2010/11 is raised 70 cents on the high end of the range and 50 cents on the low end of the range to $4.00-$4.80 per bushel. The 2009/10 season-average price received by farmers is expected to be $3.55 per bushel.

Sorghum Production Trimmed
Sorghum production is forecast at 376 million bushels for 2010/11, down 7 million bushels this month. Sorghum plantings and area to be harvested for grain for 2010/11 are unchanged this month but are down from last year. Based on September 1 conditions, sorghum yield is decreased 1.4 bushels per acre this month to 72.7 bushels per acre. In Kansas, the top producing State, producers are expecting a yield of 80 bushels per acre, down 2 bushels from last month and 8 bushels below the 2009 record yield. Producers in Texas, the second largest sorghum-producing State, expect the crop to yield 69 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from last month but up 21 bushels from last year.

The decrease in production more than offsets the increase in beginning stocks, which are raised 3 million bushels to 31 million. Sorghum use for 2010/11 remains unchanged this month as decreased feed and residual use is offset by an increase in exports. Sorghum exports are forecast at 160 million bushels as global feed grain demand strengthens in 2010/11. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 37 million bushels, down 4 million from last month, reflecting changes in supplies.

 


In 2009/10, US sorghum exports are lowered 3 million bushels this month to 167 million based on trade data to date. This results in a 3-million-bushel increase in ending stocks to 31 million bushels.

For 2010/11, the projected sorghum farm price was raised 50 cents on the low end of the range and 60 cents on the high end of the range to $3.70-$4.40 per bushel, as tighter corn supplies strengthen feed grain prices. The season-average price for 2009/10 is expected at $3.20 per bushel.

Barley Unchanged, Oats Imports Down
Barley and oats production were not revised in the September Crop Production report. Any production revisions will be reported in the Small Grains 2010 Summary to be released 30 September 2010. No changes are made this month in barley supply and use. For oats, imports were lowered 10 million bushels to 80 million for the 2010/11 marketing year due to smaller oats production in Canada. This import reduction lowers total supply and ending stocks by 10 million bushels.

For the 2009/10 marketing year, season-average prices for barley and oats remain unchanged. The 2010/11 projected barley price was raised 15 cents on each end of the forecast range to $3.70-$4.30 per bushel. The 2010/11 projected oats price was lowered 5 cents on the high end of the range and raised 5 cents on the low end of the range to $2.20-$2.70 per bushel. Stronger corn prices for 2010/11 are expected to support other feed grain prices; however, a substantial portion of the 2010/11 oat crop has already been marketed at prices well below current levels.

World Coarse Grain Production Prospects Down 10 Million Tons
Global coarse grain production in 2010/11 is projected to be 1,097.7 million tons, down 10.3 million this month. While the largest decline is in the United States, foreign production is down 4.9 million tons, almost as much as in the United .States. The largest reductions in foreign production prospects are for the EU, down 3.5 million tons, and for Russia, reduced 1.2 million.

Foreign corn production prospects are down 0.3 million tons this month to 491.8 million. EU corn production prospects are reduced 1.2 million tons to 54.7 million. France and Germany forecast area and yields are lower, while Italy, Austria, Spain, and Greece face reduced yield prospects. These reductions more than offset improved prospects in Romania and some small producing countries. There is also a small reduction in corn production prospects this month for North Korea as excessive rains have trimmed both area and yield prospects. These declines are partly offset by increased prospects for Canada and Mexico, each up 0.5 million tons this month due to improved yields. In Canada, production prospects in Ontario are good as most areas have enjoyed favorable temperatures and precipitation. In Mexico, some areas along the Pacific coast have had flooding, but rains have been generally good and water supplies in reservoirs have been favorable for irrigation. There was also a significant revision for Brazil’s 2009/10 corn crop, up 1.8 million tons to a record 56.1 million as the safrina (second, dry-season) crop was bigger than expected.

Foreign barley production is forecast down 2.0 million tons this month to 121.9 million. The largest drop is in Russia, down 1.0 million tons to 9.0 million, as harvest reports indicate that the severe drought has cut both area and yields. In the EU, barley production is reduced 0.6 million tons to 54.2 million, as spring and summer dryness followed by excessive rains during harvest in Germany and Finland trimmed yields. Excessive rains also cut yield prospects in Belarus, reducing production 0.3 million tons to 1.6 million. Morocco, also with a much wetter-than-normal growing season, reported reduced barley yields, cutting production 0.2 million tons to 2.6 million. Statistics Canada reported reduced barley area, but more than offset that with improved yield prospects, increasing barley production prospects 0.1 million tons to 8.5 million.


World sorghum production prospects are down slightly due to the US reduction. Foreign production prospects are virtually unchanged at 54.5 million tons, with a small reduction in France lost in the rounding.

Foreign oats production is reduced 0.9 million tons this month to 20.4 million due to reductions for the EU, Canada, and Belarus. The EU is cut 0.4 million tons to 7.7 million mostly due to reduced yields in Finland and Germany. Canada reported sharply reduced area due to excessive rains during planting, cutting production prospects 0.4 million tons to 2.4 million. Belarus reported lower yields, trimming production 0.1 million tons to 0.7 million.

Foreign rye production is down 1.0 million tons this month to 12.6 million. The EU is reduced 0.8 million tons to 7.7 million, mostly due to reduced area and yield for Germany. Belarus rye is cut 0.2 million tons to 1.2 million due to lower yields. EU mixed grain production prospects are reduced 0.4 million tons this month to 14.7 million, mostly due to production problems in Germany. Russia’s millet yield is cut in half this month, reducing production prospects 0.2 million tons to 0.2 million.


Increased Beginning Stocks of Coarse Grain For 2010/11
Global coarse grain beginning stocks for 2010/11 are increased 1.5 million tons this month to 189.4 million. Much of the increase is for Brazil, with increased 2009/10 corn production boosting coarse grain stocks 1.3 million tons to 12.9 million. Other increases of note include China, up 0.3 million tons due to increased 2009/10 corn imports; Australia, up 0.3 million because of reduced exports and feed use of sorghum estimated for 2009/10; Canada, up 0.3 million based on the stocks report by Statistics Canada; and Ukraine, up 0.2 million due to lower corn exports estimated for 2009/10. These increases more than offset the decline for the United States and a 0.2-million-ton reduction for Argentina caused by increased sorghum exports for 2009/10.

Global Coarse Grain Use Decline Mostly in the United States
World coarse grain use is down 3.5 million tons this month to 1,120.3 million. However, most of the change is in the United States, with foreign use reduced 0.6 million tons to 818.9 million. Ukraine’s expected domestic use of corn in 2010/11 is reduced 0.5 million tons this month due to strong demand for exports. Belarus coarse grain use is cut 0.5 million tons because of lower production. Japan is trimmed 0.2 million tons due to animal disease problems. However, feed use of coarse grain in the EU is up 0.9 million tons this month because of reduced wheat production. Mexico’s corn feed use is boosted 0.3 million tons, with increased corn production. The increase in local marketing year world imports by 0.9 million tons more than the increase in global local marketing year exports cuts world disappearance by 0.9 million tons.

Drop in Projected World Stocks Mostly in the United States
Global coarse grain ending stocks in 2010/11 are projected down 5.3 million tons this month to 166.8 million. Foreign forecast stocks are reduced 0.1 million tons to 134.7 million, as increases and decreases mostly offset. EU coarse grain stocks are reduced 1.4 million tons this month and Belarus is down 0.3 million, both due to reduced production. Morocco is reduced 0.2 million tons for the same reason. Argentina’s ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons due to lower beginning stocks of sorghum. Brazil’s 2010/11 ending stocks are up 1.3 million tons this month because of increased 2009/10 corn production. China and Australia have higher projected 2010/11 coarse grain ending stocks, each up 0.3 million tons this month due to increased beginning stocks. Mexico’s ending stocks are up 0.2 million tons due to increased corn production. Changes for other countries are smaller.

World Corn Trade and US Exports Boosted This Month
Global corn trade forecast for 2010/11 (October-September) is increased 2.0 million tons this month to 93.4 million. The largest increase in projected imports is for the EU, up 2.0 million tons to 5.0 million. With reduced production of corn and other grains, the EU is expected to turn to additional corn imports, especially as internal prices result in a zero import duty. Russia’s corn imports are projected 0.7 million tons higher this month at 1.0 million to support meat production, as drought has reduced domestic grain production. These increases are partly offset by reduced corn import prospects for Canada, down 0.3 million tons to 2.2 million, due to increased domestic production; and for Japan, down 0.2 million tons to 16.1 million because animal disease problems are expected to trim feeding.

EU corn exports are projected at half the previous month’s forecast, down 0.5 million tons this month as tight grain supplies and strong internal prices are expected to discourage exports. Strong import demand and attractive prices for exports are expected to boost corn shipments by Brazil and Ukraine 0.5 million tons each. However, with strong early corn export sales, US 2010/11 corn exports are boosted 1.5 million tons this month to 53.5 million. Recent shipments leave the 2009/10 exports on a pace to reach the 50.0 million tons previously forecast.

US sorghum exports for 2010/11 are increased 0.2 million tons this month to 4.0 million. EU imports are increased to 0.2 million, with some reported purchases from Argentina.

For global barley trade, reduced export prospects for the EU and Russia are offset by increased barley export prospects for Canada. However, tight Canadian oats supplies are expected to limit exports, trimming US October-September oats imports projected for 2010/11 by 0.2 million tons to 1.4 million.

You are not the only foreigner here.I myself am also a Canadian with agri interest in the Philippines.

Well,our sows are confined also much like in Canada with cement flooring,metal cages,metal roof with bamboo siding and netting to prvent any bats or birds from entering the barns,bio security measure.No visitors allowed.

Our hogs eat concentrates much like in N.America.We buy the base mix from SM and then buy the rest to blend our feeds,works okay for us.So,starter,grower and finisher and the mix for the sows and boars.Sure you could grow your own corn and soybeans if the beans will grow in your area and possible other forages.

Sorry have no knowledge on outdoor hog raising,confinement means less trouble for us.
Expences are high and feed costs are rising.Just like in N.America there are the highs and the low periods for prices.Speaking only for myself we have found if you can control your product from the farmgate to the dinner plate you have a better chance for success.We have found selling the muscle product has given us our best gain in terms of profit.

Depending on your area the prices will differ with the feed costs.

Good Luck

Tuesday, September 21, 2010        Pork Prices Drop as Consumers Shift to Chicken
PHILIPPINES - A shift in consumer demand for meat products has caused pork prices to drop by as much as P20 per kilo, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said yesterday.



In a radio interview, DA Assistant Secretary Salvador said the consumer shift from pork to chicken has brought down pork prices to about P160 to P170 a kilo from P180 to P190 a kilo in the first half of this year.

“The primary reason behind this is the shift in consumer demand. There is a close shifting pattern between pork and chicken, where Filipinos tend to shift to chicken commodity when pork prices are high, and vice-versa,” Mr Salacup said.

“Since chicken prices are much lower for now, Filipinos tend to favor broilers, resulting to lower prices in swine products,” the official added.

According to The Manila Times.net, last Saturday, Agriculture Secretary Proceso Alcala said DA, poultry raisers and market vendors have agreed on a standard reference price of P100 per kilogram for “unbranded” dressed chicken and P110 for “branded” chicken.

Dressed chicken now sells at P120 per kilogram, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics said.

The department earlier reported that farm gate price of live chickens went down to P57 to 50 a kilo because of the surplus in supply. According to farmers, the break-even price for chicken production is P58 to P60.

To stem further losses, local poultry farmers threatened to suspend their operations, which may result to a shortage of chicken by the end of the year.

In line with this, Salacup said that DA will continue to monitor the prices in the coming months, when demand for the two commodities traditionally goes up.

DA Assistant Secretary for Livestock Davinio Catbagan had said the department would be meeting with poultry industry stakeholders today to discuss the possible intervention the government can do to ensure a stable supply of chicken in time for the holiday season.

Mr Catbagan said the government would try to avert the need to import chicken by the end of the year to bridge any supply gap.

Pork Commentary: Brazil - PorkExpo 2010
BRAZIL - This past week we were at PorkExpo 2010 in Curitiba Brazil, writes Jim Long.

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
Our Observations
Brazil’s hog prices are profitable with slaughter hog prices at 69¢ US a lb, and cost of production 60 ¢ US a lb. One large producer told us they were making $21 US per market hog. Brazil is one of the major pork exporting countries.


Feed prices are similar to the USA and have gone up about 20 per cent in the last two months, just like the rest of the world.


PorkExpo 2010 was a professional well organized exhibition. There was an extensive list of speakers from around the world. The exhibits were big with some companies at the top end probably burning through $200,000 US in space, exhibit, personnel, hospitality, and hotels. This is big time outlay.


At PorkExpo 2010 there was very few swine equipment companies. Taxes on imported hog equipment are around 50 per cent and then there are domestic taxes. Some industry people told us imported swine feeding equipment ends up at almost double in price when all taxes and tariffs are accounted.


The high domestic tax on equipment leads to many producers making their own gestation stalls, penning, etc...


Brazil’s producers are finding it increasingly challenging to find swine production workers. We were told that in farrow to finish operations labour costs are almost 15 per cent of the total production costs when all costs are calculated. This is very similar to North America. On a go forward basis Brazil will increasingly move to greater barn automation. The high taxes on pig equipment and technology (almost 100 per cent) makes the pay back definitely longer. This is certainly a disadvantage for Brazil’s producers.


In Brazil the highest hog prices are in October – November the complete opposite of North America which usually has the lowest yearly price in October – November. The seasonal effect of hot summer months are totally opposite in the Northern Hemisphere (United States) compared to the Southern Hemisphere (Brazil). This is a positive for prices in the world’s export market. In the next few weeks as North America’s hog supply increases seasonally Brazil is going down. The current tightness of supply in Brazil was reflected in stories we heard of hogs being marketed down to 200 pounds or 90 kg. We expect the lower hog numbers in Brazil will be price supportive in the coming weeks for not only Brazil but the rest of the world as Brazil will have less pork to export.


Brazil from what we can observe is not expanding its sow herd yet. Like North American producers they lost money for two years plus. There is lots of healing needs to be done.


For what it’s worth we observed that there were no swine barn construction companies at Pork Expo 2010.


At Agriness, a pig record keeping system gave out its awards for top producers and also averages on their system.
Agriness 2009 – 2010 July – June
311 farms 180,500 females
  AGRINESS AVERAGE AGRINESS TOP 10%
Total born litter 12.73 14.36
Born alive litter 11.73 13.23
Litters per sow per year 2.37 2.49
Pre–weaning mortality 8.68 6.43
Weaned pigs sow per year 25.42 30.85

Agriness’ average of 25.42 pigs weaned per sow reflects the intense and capable production of Brazil’s producers. The low pre weaning mortality of 8.68 per cent is significantly better than North America’s average of near 12 per cent. Many sow units in Brazil have 24 hour staffing in their farrowing rooms. This decreases stillborns and pre weaning mortality.


From a personal perspective we are quite excited about the potential for Genesus in Brazil. The record breaking genetic potential of Genesus and the production intensity in Brazil will push weaned pigs per sow over 33 in the near future. Our major competitors in Brazil are PIC and Dan bred. Other companies are there but they are not competitive.


Feed prices in Brazil like North America and the rest of the world have jumped dramatically in the last 60 days. This will slow expansion plans in the hog industry. On the crop side its spring time in Brazil (Southern Hemisphere) and with grain prices jumping higher. They expect maximum plantings to be undertaken.
Summary
Brazil is and will be a major competitor in Global Pork Markets. Their productivity, land, and grain resources combined with a can do attitude makes a formidable combination.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics 

Weekly Roberts Report
US - Agricultural US Commodity Market Report by Mike Roberts, Commodity Marketing Agent, Virginia Tech.



LEAN HOGS on the CME finished up on Monday. OCT’10LH futures finished at $78.525/cwt; up $0.825/cwt and $2.225/cwt over last Monday. The FEB’11LH contract closed up $0.775/cwt at $80.375/cwt and $2.80/cwt higher than last report. Hogs were supported by the discount to cash ahead of seasonal demand and fund buying. Analysts are estimating 2.4-2.9 per cent lower supplies ahead of USDA’s cold storage report because of herd reductions over the past two years. USDA put the average cash pork cutout price at $91.14/cwt, down $0.67/cwt but $1.29/cwt higher than this time last week. The latest CME lean hog index was placed at 83.04/lb, up 0.12/lb and 0.57/lb higher than last report. CME’s hog index represents the actual price of hogs on a lean basis quoted by USDA and lags behind the spot month by two days. According to HedgersEdge.com, the average packer margin was raised $4.90/head to a positive $16.50/hd based on the average buy of $59.43cwt vs. the average breakeven of $65.57/cwt.

CORN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed down on Monday. DEC’10 corn futures closed off 5.0¢/bu at $5.082/bu but 24.75¢/bu over last report. The MAR’11 contract closed at $5.212/bu; down 4.5 cents from Friday. The DEC’11 contract closed at $4.732/bu; down 4.5¢/bu but 17.25¢/bu higher than last Monday. Corn futures rallied to their highest level in two years then retreated to end down for the day on profit-taking and farmer hedge-selling. According to several floor sources traders backed off fears that a late US harvest and frost in China might limit supplies. Others on the floor see corn prices falling after such a strong opening as a predictor of topping action in corn futures. Even the most pessimistic traders don’t think the supply hiccup is worth $5.22/bu. Most sources believe, me included that corn prices will be pulling back over the next few days. USDA’s World Agriculture Supply Demand Estimate (WASDE) report due out October 8 should give another snapshot of supply. The most recent report by USDA projected an average yield of 162.5 mi bu per acre. Exports were disappointing with USDA putting corn-inspected-for-export at 28.460 mi bu vs. expectations of 35-40 mi bu. China is expected to continue importing corn as imports soared to 432,191 tonnes (17 mi bu). Funds sold 7,000 lots on profit taking amid a volume of 356,000 contracts, up 10 per cent from the 30-day average of 323,218 lots. It is significant to note that net fund length in corn was at 444,100 lots, the highest since April 1996 and 32 per cent open interest, an all-time high. Cash corn was flat to weaker amid brisk farmer selling.

SOYBEAN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed up on Monday. NOV’10 futures closed at $10.844/bu, up 15.5¢/bu and 50.0¢/bu higher than last report. The MAR’11 contract closed at $11.020/bu; up 17.25¢/bu from last close. NOV’11 soybean futures closed up 14.5¢/bu at $10.704/bu and 43.5¢/bu higher than last week at this time. Soybeans finished up a one-year high on concerns of dryness in portions of South America’s crop region prior to planting, a freeze in Canada that may harm immature canola, and a freeze in China. USDA put soybeans-inspected-for-export at 12.078 mi bu vs. expectations for 8-12 mi bu. China bought 225,000 tonnes (8.3 mi bu). Oil prices rose after a new report on Monday said the US has endured the longest recession since World War II. Crude oil futures influence demand for corn and soybean prices because of their relationship with energy. While corn yields are looking off reports of soybean yields so far are promising. Prices are being influenced by corn and wheat strength even though American farmers are expected to harvest a bumper crop in 2010. Funds bought 5,000 lots with volume near 160,000 contracts, up nearly 65 per cent from the 30-day average of 96,929.

WHEAT futures in Chicago (CBOT) finished mixed on Monday with nearby contracts up to JULY’11 down while the JULY’11 contract and those past it showing gains. The DEC’10 wheat contract closed at $7.316/bu; down 7.5¢/bu from Friday’s close. JULY’11 futures finished up 2.75¢/bu at $7.500/bu and 6.0¢/bu higher than a week ago. Nearbys suffered from profit taking with deferreds supported by dry weather in Australia, Russia, parts of Argentina, and season-ending frost in Canada. Exports were somewhat supportive with USDA reporting wheat-inspected-for-export at 29.934 mi bu vs. expectations for 25-30 mi bu. Wheat prices retreated on profit-taking since the Russian announcement of the market-shocking ban on grain exports early last month. Market participants remain nervous about global grain production because Russia needs more rain to plant its next wheat crop. Funds sold 3,000 lots amid 59,000 contract volume which was down nearly 50 per cent from the 30-day average of 113,148 lots.

Forecast for Chinese Pork Prices to Increase Again
CHINA - Pork prices in August were steady, following a rapid rise in June and July but further rises are forecast in the coming months.



In August, China's pork market was steady, with no noticeable increases in price, according to an analysis by Frbiz.com, one of China's B2B search platforms. This steadiness was mainly due to the consumer atmosphere in the second quarter being influenced by fast rising prices in June and July, which were caused by pig diseases and China's southern floods decreasing pork supply.

The first week of this month, China's pork prices were at a record high. The national pork average wholesale price reached RMB17.21 per kilo – a year-on-year increase of almost eight per cent. Breeding stock numbers fell in July by 3.7 per cent year-on-year. In July, breeding stock was 44 million head, down 2.2 per cent year on year.

In September, after the beginning of autumn, the weather gets colder, which is the pork sales season. The Mid-Autumn festival and National Day holiday stimulate pork demand, and therefore the market demand of pork will increase. Plus, feed and raw materials like corn, wheat and so on will also maintain high operations and also stimulate a rise in pork prices. Therefore, in late September and October, pork prices may start a new rising price trend.

This year's high point will be close to the 2009 high level. As pork prices continue to rise, farmers begin to reduce the market availability rate of the livestock, therefore, the supply in such a tight situation may continue into the late fourth quarter. China's demand may exceed supply at the height of the pork season. According to the situation in August, the average wholesale price of pork was RMB17.00 per kilo, and the first week of this month, the price even reached RMB17.21. According to the current situation, Frbiz forecasts that this year's whoelsale pork price could reach RMB19 but will not exceed the RMB23 level seen in 2008.

Thai pork price affected by Cambodia’s ban
[22 September 2010] Pork price in Thailand is likely to be pressured by Cambodia’s ban on pig imports from Thailand as this will increase domestic supply. Cambodia has halted pigs import from Thailand and Vietnam to safeguard the local industry. Thailand exports around 2000 pigs/month to Cambodia. Thailand’s Department of Internal Trade will meet today to discuss the pork price situation.