Tight Supplies Characterise 2011 Livestock Outlook
US - The livestock outlook for 2011 is characterised by tight supplies of beef, pork and poultry which bodes well for producers, but the optimism is tempered by higher feed costs, according to Ron Plain, Extension economist with the University of Missouri.


Professor Plain sees further tightening of the meat supply this year. He said the key to success for livestock producers is to increase demand, which is best achieved through an improving economy. Plain presented the livestock outlook during the 92nd annual meeting of the American Farm Bureau Federation.

“The big uncertainty is meat demand,” Professor Plain said. “Meat is something a lot of people in the world fully enjoy eating and they will eat more of it if they have money in their pockets.”

If the US and the world can move beyond the recession, the improving economy means people will have more money in their pockets, which will bid up the price of meat, according to Plain.

As for the export outlook, Professor Plain said the dollar is becoming steadily weaker and that is good news for US meat exports.

Analgesics in Farrowing and Castration
Preliminary data indicate no economic benefit from providing analgesia to sows at farrowing or to piglets at castration, writes Ed Barrie, Sow Weaner Pig Specialist at Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (OMAFRA), reviewing research presented at the University of Guelph.

In a paper delivered to the University of Guelph Swine Research Day entitled 'The effect of pain relief at castration and farrowing on piglet performance" by S. Taylor, R. Friendship and G. Cassar, the subject of castration of piglets without the use of anaesthesia or analgesia was examined.

To date, there have been few research studies that evaluated the use of analgesia for this procedure and whether pain relief might be associated with improved piglet performance.
*
"The decision to use analgesia will most likely be based on ethical concerns and not on financial concerns" 
 
A second part of the same study was directed at whether there was any economic benefit or reduction in still births or perinatal death losses if sows receive medication to reduce the pain associated with farrowing. In the castration study male piglets were randomly sorted into a control group or a treatment group at five to seven days of age. Piglets were ear-notched for identification purposes, and weighed. The procedure was that they received a saline injection or Anafen® (Ketoprofen injection 100 mg/mL, 1mL/50 kg body weight, respectively). Piglets were castrated 30 minutes after receiving the injection, and observations were made 10 minutes after castration for signs of discomfort. Piglets were weighed at 21 days of age, and mortality was recorded.

In the sow study, sows were randomly assigned to a control group or a treatment group. The treatment group received an IM injection of 1 mL/50kg body weight of Anafen prior to farrowing and again the day of farrowing. Piglets from both control and treated sows were ear- notched and weighed on the day of farrowing and day 21, and pre weaning mortality was recorded.

Castration trial results to date showed no apparent difference in both the average daily gain and pre-weaning mortality of male piglets in both the control and treatment groups. No difference was noted in post castration behaviour between the two groups. The cost of analgesia was $0.22 per piglet and it did increase the time to castrate.

The farrowing trial showed no differences between stillbirth rate, weaning weights or pre-weaning mortality between treated and control animals. The cost of Ketoprofen was 13.05/sow/dose.

These preliminary data indicate no economic benefit from providing analgesia to sows at farrowing or to piglets at castration. Further analysis or further studies might show benefits to using analgesia where a small sow is delivering large piglets.

This work to date suggests that the routine use of ketoprofen to piglets at castration or to sows at parturition did not result in improved performance and was therefore not cost-beneficial. In general, the decision to use analgesia will most likely be based on ethical concerns and not on financial concerns.

January 2011

CME: Shrinking Corn Crop Expected to Shrink Further
US - Today's USDA Crop Production report will provide the feds’ final estimate of US corn and soybean crops and, according to the results of DowJones’ monthly pre-report survey, analysts expect the corn crop estimate to be lower and the soybean crop estimate to be higher than those of December, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.


The range and average of analysts’ estimates appear in the table below.


The “incredibly shrinking 2010 corn crop” is expected to continue to shrink a bit more with an expected yield of 153.9 bushels per acre. That number is only fractionally lower than the December estimate but is 6.6 per cent smaller than the 2009 yield. Analysts expect the estimated average soybean yield to rise 0.1 bushels from December to 44 bushels per acre, equal to last year’s yield

Those yield levels would push the corn crop down to 12.491 billion bushels, 0.4 per cent lower than December’s 12.54 billion bushels and 4.7 per cent lower than last year’s 13.110 billion bushels. Analysts still expect a record-large soybean crop of 3.376 billion bushels, slightly higher than USDA’s December estimate and 0.5 per cent higher than last year’s crop.

USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report will also be released tomorrow. This report is important because it will provide the first checkpoint for usage levels for the 2010 crops. The result of DowJones’ survey of analysts appear above. As expected given the crop estimates above, analysts expect significantly tighter corn stocks and roughly the same level of soybean stocks as were on hand on 1 December 2009.

Our argument last week that cattle prices are still too low relative to corn prices put us in such good stead with our producer readers that we thought we would try to gain the favor of hog producers this week using the same argument. As can be seen in the chart at right, it is not a difficult one to make.

The chart shows the ratio of nearby monthly hog futures to corn futures from 1972 to date. Note that there is one complication of this chart relative to the cattle chart: The change from the original Live Hogs contract to the new Lean Hogs contract priced on a carcass weight basis beginning with the Feb 1997 contract. That change, of course, increased the apparent level of the hog:corn ratio but really just re-defined the critical levels of the number. Where 20:1 was once the critical level for expansion, a ratio of 26.7 would now be required.


As was the case with the fed cattle:corn ratio, the hog:corn ratio has been very low since 2008 when corn prices originally took off as a) oil prices rose and b) ethanol began using a higher and higher percentage of the U.S. corn crop. Since that time, the hog:corn ration has never been very close to the historical relationship — now 26.7:1 based on carcass pricing — required to entice producers to expand output. In fact, the ratio has hardly touched the OLD required level of 20:1 during that time period. But you might say “Yes, but summer LH futures are trading at $93-plus.” True. But July corn futures closed yesterday at $6.20, meaning that the July hog:corn ratio is still only 15.1:1. If these corn prices persists, look for hog prices to move higher yet in order to bring the industry back into a profit position that begets growth.

One of Ireland's Largest Pig Farms Closes
IRELAND - One of country's biggest pig farmers, Rory O'Brien, has ceased production, citing poor returns and high costs.


With the pig industry in the midst of escalating feed prices, lack of credit and low pigmeat prices, one of Ireland's biggest pig farmers has begun to clear out a 2,300-sow herd on his farm, according to The Independent of Ireland.

Rory O'Brien ranks in the top five pig farmers in the country in terms of scale but he is in the process of winding down his family business at Killicane, Mitchelstown, County Cork.

Mr O'Brien has denied suggestions that the decision to exit the pig industry was due to difficulties with off-farm investments and insists that the sow clear out was due to disease reasons and falling returns.

"The most efficient pig farmers in this country have costs of production of 165 to 170 cents per kilo but are only paid 135 to 136 cents per kilo," he said. "You couldn't sustain those level of losses. We took a look at it and decided there was no point in continuing."

Pressure on Mr O'Brien's business has been building for several months, coinciding with rising feed costs.

However, he insisted that processors and retailers, not just feed costs, are also to blame for the current pig industry crisis.

He said: "There is no commitment to Irish pigmeat. The factories, secondary processors and shopkeepers have zero respect for Irish farmers. The farmer's share is down to 17 per cent of the shelf price – something has gone wrong somewhere."

The Cork farmer warned that unless prices to farmers rise, there will be no Irish pig industry "within 12 months".

"It's a race to the end and farmers are the victims," he said.

The pig crisis reached fever pitch in recent days and Mr O'Brien claimed that some farmers were struggling to feed their pigs because they had no money.

"At least we saw it in time and took the decision to get out. There was no point whatsoever in continuing to generate losses on that scale. It would have been downright bad business," he said.

The Independent reports that Mr O'Brien plans to continue to operate two smaller pig units at Kilworth in County Cork, and Toomevara, Country Tipperary, and remain in partnership in a third unit in Clonmel, County Tipperary. He has also vowed to restock his home farm within two years if the trade improves.

Pork Commentary: Lean Hog Futures Push Higher
CANADA - This week's North American Pork Commentary from Jim Long.

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
Lean hog futures last week continued to push higher with all contract months in 2011 reaching contract highs with four summer months closing Friday at about 93 cents lean per pound average. What’s the upside? These are volatile times; corn and soybean prices have moved in price ranges unprecedented in history. Cash lean hogs currently are about 70 cents per pound, while lean hog futures for May are around 92 cents per pound. That is less than four months away! The futures market is anticipating an almost $50 per head jump in prices in a very short time. The $50 per head is an expected average increase of over $4.00 per head per week between now and May. That’s moving, that’s volatile.

The volatility we have in the market place whether it is grains or meat is hard on producers. How do you plan? What do you do to protect yourself? The volatility is a reason we see some producers contemplating quitting. We had one industry participant tell us last week that he suspects the high feed prices will remove as many producers in the next twelve months as we have seen in the last year. We suspect that if corn stays above $5.00 a bushel until this fall he would be correct. Too many producers due to age of themselves and or their buildings will quit. Growing corn at $5.00 a bushel plus is a relatively easy play. Having sows is hard work. It is a 365 day commitment of resources and time. It will be why bother as much as anything that will take out the next 100,000 sows of production if the $5.00 plus corn continues throughout 2011.

Other Observations
It has been pointed out to us this past week that high grain costs are increasing working capital needs. The same person observed Banks are not enamored with the hog industry. Both points diminish expansion scenarios.


Last Thursday the average weight on the National Daily Lean was 210.49 pounds per carcass. Probably the highest day average ever. A year ago it was averaging around 203 pounds. In our opinion for lean hog prices to appreciate the carcass weights need to start going down. When we see that it will indicate demand and the beginning of the seasonal supply decline.
Genesus does business in South Korea having sent more breeding stock to that country than any other genetic company in the last 2 years. South Korea is a country of about 50 million people; the area is approximately 180 miles by 350 miles with over 50 per cent mountains. Korea imports almost all of its feedstuffs. Its economy is strong. Currently South Korea is fighting a huge foot and mouth outbreak. So far over 1.1 million animals at over 3,000 farms have been destroyed. The challenge for Korean authorities to control the situation will be daunting. Unless you have been to Korea it is hard to comprehend the density of people and farms. There is no separation. The latest reported swine price we have from South Korea is 4400 KRW/kg which is $3.91 US per kg or $1.77 US per pound. Huge liquidation of South Korea’s almost one million sow herd will lead to the need for imports of pork to feed the nation. The US – South Korean ongoing negotiation for a free trade agreement could lead to significant US pork sales opportunities.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

Market Preview: Chicken, Lean Hog Futures
US - In this week of National Hog Farmer's Market Preview, Steve Meyer discusses the importance of keeping an eye on chicken and lean hog futures.


Aside from the always-present, yet unlikely, possibility of a catastrophic occurrence, such as foot-and-mouth disease or some unforeseen food safety issue with pork, my biggest concern for livestock and poultry markets in 2011 has for some time been whether the chicken companies would produce us all right out of a good year.

These outfits had understandably moved back into expansion mode in early 2010, as feed costs fell and the restaurant trade, though still far from good, picked up a bit. Their difficulties with exports to Russia took some luster off of 2010, but it was good enough to start the broiler breeder flock growing again and push chicken output up by 2.5 per cent for the 52 weeks that ended 1 January.

But the road to recovery and expansion became rocky for the broiler companies just like it did for pork producers when grain prices began to climb last summer. Figure 1, which comes courtesy of Karl Skold of Westside Economics in Omaha, shows the steady decline of broiler margins from mid-June onward. They became negative in mid-November.


My concern, of course, was that broiler companies may either see these negative returns as temporary or may see them as just the price to pay for market share. The former is obviously not the case, at least for this grain marketing year. The latter sounds shaky as well, but it is the mindset that dominated broiler companies for many years when broiler demand and consumption were growing steadily. A “damn the torpedoes” approach this year could be bloody indeed for the broiler sector, but would also drive broiler prices lower and very likely put a lid on the level of prices that might be achieved this year by pork and beef products.

Add in the fact that two of the giants of the broiler sector, Tyson Foods and Pilgrim’s Pride, have the necessary financial resources to force the issue on market share and you have the makings for a potential disaster. Tyson’s resources were generated internally by one of its best years ever. Pilgrim’s resources come from its now-parent company, JBS USA and its ties to JBS in Brazil and the cozy relationship it has with Brazil’s national bank.

It appears, though, that more conservative – and I would say logical – thinking is prevailing. Figures 2 and 3 show that egg sets and chick placements slowed sharply late in 2010. Egg sets ended the year 2.5 per cent larger than in 2009, but since 1 November, they were only 1.1 per cent higher than last year and 2 per cent lower than the five-year average, which indicates a normal seasonal surge in sets.

 


Changes in placements, of course, lag those of egg sets by three weeks, so we have not seen as dramatic a change in level there yet. But it is clear that placements have moved closer to year-ago levels after running as much as 9.7 per cent higher than last year during October and November.

I think the only difference between the pork sector and the chicken sector is that pork producers did not get nearly as far down the positive-output-response road. Higher grain prices derailed our expansion before it even got started. Now, the prospect of breakeven cost levels above $80/cwt., carcass, this year will keep that expansion slow. Yes, some producers will replace sows and some empty units are being refilled. But those higher costs may put enough pressure on less efficient producers to offset much, if not most, of that expansion for at least the next quarter or two.

Bottom Line
The slowing of broiler expansion will be positive for markets in 2011. Live cattle futures are already record high, as they should be in my opinion, given the expected reduction in cattle numbers and beef production. Lean Hog (LH) futures are in rarified air with May through August above $90 and the charts showing no signs of topping yet!

Could we see $100 summer hogs? It cannot be ruled out and, given June futures were at $94.50 on Monday morning, it is getting more and more likely. I do not ascribe to these markets having much of a sense of detail, so when we get this close, I usually think we could add another $5 by accident and that would put us above $100.

That has happened once before when June 2009 LH futures briefly traded at $100 in June 2008. That was not a very useful occurrence given the low volumes and open interest in those distant contracts. But this one is a different story and perhaps should be used aggressively if the charts begin signaling a top.

If you feel a little reluctant to do so, just ask yourself: “How many hogs have you locked in at $90-plus in the past?”

 

Weekly Outlook: Waiting for USDA Reports
US - On January 12, the USDA will release a number of reports that will contain important information for the corn, soybean, and wheat markets writes Darrel Good, Agricultural Economist, University of Illinois.


These reports, along with crop development in the southern hemisphere, will set the tone for the markets into the spring. The Crop Production report will contain final estimates of the size of the 2010 corn and soybean crops. Changes, if any, from the November forecasts are expected to be small. Changes would most likely be in the yield estimates since administrative data has already been incorporated in the acreage forecasts. However, since the December producer survey is much larger than earlier surveys, acreage changes cannot be ruled out. In the previous 10 years, the change in the corn yield estimate in January has ranged from 0.1 bushel to 2.4 bushels and averaged 1.1 bushels. For soybeans, the change has ranged from 0.1 to 0.7 bushel and averaged 0.3 bushel.

The Grain Stocks report will contain estimates of the 1 December 2010 domestic inventory of all the major crops. The most interest will be in the estimate of the corn inventory. This is always the case since the report provides the first indication of the feed and residual use of corn during the first quarter of the marketing year. The report takes on added significance this year since the previous two quarterly stocks reports (June and September, 2010) provided surprises. The September estimate was larger than expected following a smaller than expected estimate in June. The September surprise set off a discussion about whether inventories of the newly harvested crop were inappropriately included and/or whether some of the 2010 harvest was fed in August. The USDA indicated that some new crop may have been fed in August and as a result has forecast 2010-11 marketing year feed and residual use of corn at 5.3 billion bushels, 2.7 per cent more than used in the previous year. Our analysis would suggest that the 1 September stocks estimate was very logical and that the USDA forecast of feed and residual use for 2010-11 may be too high. Additionally, the 16 per cent increase in ethanol production during the first quarter of the 2010-11 marketing year and the resulting increase in production and feeding of distillers’ grain may have substituted for an additional 40 to 50 million bushels of corn feeding. There is some risk, then, that the 1 December corn stocks estimate may reveal a slower pace of feed and residual use than currently forecast by the USDA. The magnitude of stocks will reflect any change in the production estimate and the large ethanol use of corn, as well as actual feed and residual use.

The monthly report of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates will be closely observed for any changes in southern hemisphere production estimates and implications for the export demand for US crops. The estimates of production of corn and soybeans in Argentina will be most closely watched due to dry conditions that have prevailed since mid-October. The corn crop appears to have been most negatively impacted. Any changes in these forecasts, along with the 1 December stocks estimates will be reflected in changes in the projection of year ending stocks of corn and soybeans.

For soybeans, the USDA’s projection of the domestic use of soybean oil for production of methyl ester will be important. Previous reports have forecast a year-over-year increase of 1.219 billion pounds (72.5 per cent). The reinstatement of the biodiesel blender tax credit should support use moving forward, but use during the first two months of the marketing year (October and November 2010) was very small. Use in those two months totaled only 173 million pounds, compared to 485 million in October and November of 2009. To reach the current USDA projection, use during the 10 months from December 2010 through September 2011 will need to average 273 million pounds per month, 126 per cent more than the average of a year earlier. The forecast of soybean oil exports may also be influenced by the rapid increase in palm oil prices and the resulting improvement in the competitive position of soybean oil in the export market.

The Winter Wheat Seedings report is expected to show a large increase in winter wheat acreage following the sharp decline in 2009. The magnitude and location of those increases will have implications for the availability of acreage for spring planted crops, including double cropped soybeans. Beyond the acreage numbers, the condition of the winter wheat crop will have implications for yield and for the potential of replanting some wheat acreage to other crops this spring.

There is added price risk when so much information is released at one time. New estimates and forecasts may provide a consistently positive or negative scenario or they may provide mixed signals that the market will have to sort out. Given the recent history of USDA reports, an important surprise cannot be ruled out.

Chicken, Pork Imports Jumped in 2010
PHILIPPINES - Chicken and pork imports increased by 31 per cent and 34 per cent, respectively, from 2009, based on statistics released by the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI).


The Philippine Star reports that BAI data showed that as of 13 December, chicken imports had reached 97,197 tonnes compared to total imports of 67,265 tonnes for the whole of 2009.

Pork imports reached 172,626 tonnes from January to December last year, compared to only 114,365 tonnes for the whole of 2009.

The high increase is being criticised by local chicken and pork producers, who claim that their viability is threatened.

BAI figures show that there has been an increase in imports of chicken cuts, chicken leg quarters, whole chicken, deboned chicken and offals, while there has been a decline in imports of chicken fat and rind/skin.

As for pork, there has been a continued increase in all imports of pork cuts, pork bellies, deboned pork, fats, offals and pork rind/skin.

Imports of chicken cuts as of 13 December 2010 year amounted to 3,241 tonnes from the 2,993 tonnes imported in 2009.

Imports of chicken leg quarters increased by more than 10,000 tonnes last year to a total of 36,831 tonnes compared to the previous year's imports of only 26,372 tonnes.

Imports of whole chicken more than doubled last year to 603.2 tonnes compared to the 250.8 tonnes imported in 2009.

Likewise, imports of deboned chicken also increased this year to 56,064 tonnes compared to imports last year amounting to only 36,887 tonnes.

There was also a noticeable increase in imports of chicken offals this year with imports tripling to 121.1 tonnes compared to 2009's imports amounting to only 40.4 tonnes.

A decline in imports, on the other hand, was registered in chicken fats from 211.5 tonnes in 2009 to only 103.7 tonnes in 2010.

Likewise, imports of chicken rind/skin in 2010 fell to 232.2 tonnes from 510.7 tonnes the previous year.

According to The Philippine Star, imports of all kinds of pork products, on the other hand, registered significant increases with pork bellies almost doubling last year to 15,792 tonnes from only 8,587 tonnes in 2009.

Pork cuts imports increased to 54,876 tonnes in 2010 from only 34,196 tonnes the previous year.

Imports of pork offals also almost doubled to 52,502 tonnes from 28,959 tonnes in 2009.

Imports of deboned pork almost quadrupled to 108 tonnes from 27 tonnes in 2009, while imports of pork rind/skin increased to 20,461 tonnes in 2010 from 16,196 tonnes the previous year.

Pork fat imports were 28,888 tonnes in 2010 from 26,399 tonnes the previous year, reports The Philippine Star.

South Korea Avoids German Pork, Poultry Imports
SOUTH KOREA - South Korea is preventing imports of German pork and poultry products from reaching consumers because of health concerns over a cancer-causing chemical.


The government said on Friday that authorities have temporarily suspended all quarantine inspections of the products as a precaution following reports that potentially dangerous levels of dioxin were discovered in eggs, pork and poultry products in Germany.

According to JakartaGlobe, the government said the measure _ which is not a formal import ban _ began Wednesday and will be in place until the safety of German pork and poultry products is secured.

Dioxins are contaminants that typically result from industrial combustion and other chemical processes. Exposure to dioxins at high levels is linked to increased incidence of cancer.

Philippines gets $4.97-M World Bank grant to help farmers weather climate change impact
The Philippines got a $4.97-million World Bank grant to help farmers cope with the effects of climate change, the multilateral lender said in a statement released on Friday.

The government and the World bank signed the agreement last Dec. 21, the statement said.

The grant, to come from the Global Environment facility of the World Bank-managed Special Climate Change Fund, will help finance the $55.42-million Philippines Climate Change Adaptation Project (PhilCCAP).

Data from the World Bank Web site showed PhilCCAP was approved on June 29 last year, with the Philippines shelling out $50.45 million in counterpart funding.

The project aims to develop and test adaptation strategies that will develop the resiliency of farms and natural resource management to the effects of climate change.

Measures to be funded include improving irrigation and other agricultural infrastructure, pilot-testing weather index-based crop insurance, as well as enhancing the management of watersheds and protected areas, the World Bank said in its statement.

It also aims to improve the capacity of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in gathering and analyzing data on climate change trends and disseminating information to the government and the public.

World Bank said the project will be implemented by the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), PAGASA and the Climate Change Commission.

It said the project will help both the national and local governments, as well as rural communities "more effectively manage and protect critical ecosystems through a systematic consideration of climate risks."

"Poor communities are more vulnerable to climate change and have fewer options for coping with the impact, including decreased food and water supplies. This project, therefore, is very important because it helps reduce the poor’s vulnerability to these types of shocks," World Bank Country Director Bert Hofman said in the statement.

The same statement quoted Agriculture Secretary Proceso J. Alcala as saying "the project will benefit poor farmers, who often suffer the most from climate change-related losses, as well as other vulnerable groups that depend on agriculture and natural resources for their livelihoods."

Environment and Natural Resources Sec. Ramon Jesus P. Paje said in the statement that the project "will also strengthen the coordination of interventions addressing climate change by supporting capacity-building in oversight bodies like the Climate Change Commission."

The bank noted that the Philippines is among the top 10 countries at risk of natural disasters and other effects of climate change.

More state funding

In a related development, a bill now being scheduled for public hearing in the House of Representatives seeks to establish a fund for local government units (LGUs) that will adopt programs to help their communities weather the impact of climate change.

House Bill (HB) 3528, filed Deputy Speaker Lorenzo M. Tañada III (4th district, Quezon), seeks to put up the "People’s Survival Fund" (PSF), to be administered by the Climate Change Commission, which will serve as an incentive to LGUs that will develop and adopt such climate change adaptation strategies.

The PSF will become the central source of funding support for adaptation measures urgently needed by farming localities.

Examples include small water impounding projects in anticipation of drought and structures that can reduce damage from floods, Mr. Tañada said in a statement on Friday.

He added that "communities must be properly equipped and prepared to help themselves in order to respond to the disasters brought about by this phenomenon. They must also put forward a climate change adaptation strategy which must be properly funded."

The funds will come from domestic private and public, as well as foreign funds. These include, but will not be limited to, 10% of the cash dividends declared by all government-owned and controlled corporations and a portion of the Motor Vehicle User’s Charge.

The bill has been pending with the Committee on Ecology, chaired by Rep. Danilo Ramon S. Fernandez since October 2010. A counterpart measure, Senate Bill 2558, authored by Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, was subjected to its first public hearing late last year. -- JJAC and NMG

Philippine coffee yields head downhill
ANNUAL coffee production has headed downhill in the last five years as Mindanao farmers shift to higher-yielding crops and rejuvenate farms, according to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS).

Latest BAS statistics on major crops showed coffee production dropped by 1.02% to 96,433 metric tons (MT) last year from 2008’s 97,248. In 2005, the production volume was 105,847 MT. Coffee yields have been falling in the single digits since.

Falling coffee output was a result of the rejuvenation of farms in the Davao Region and the shift of coffee farmers in SOCCKSARGEN to banana and rubber.

Rolando T. Dy, executive director at the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) Center of Food and Agribusiness, said that cutting down and replanting of trees in the Davao farms reduced the region’s overall output and greatly affected the country’s total coffee yield.

On the other hand, the shift to banana and rubber in Sultan Kudarat farms added to the causes of the drop in coffee produce. Roberto Ansaldo of Rocky Mountain Café said that switching has been going on for years since Vietnam and Indonesia were included among the world’s top coffee exporters.

Farm rejuvenation and shift of produce led to the decrease both in land dedicated for planting and the number of bearing trees.

Only 122,645 hectares were used to plant coffee in 2009 as compared to 127,975 hectares in 2005. Similarly, the number of coffee-bearing trees dropped to 85 million in 2009 from 91 million in 2005.

SOCCKSARGEN and the Davao Region are the Philippines’ top coffee producing regions, yielding 27,554 MT and 23,632 MT, respectively, last year.

Among coffee varieties, Robusta coffee was the most popular, accounting for 71.9% of total coffee produce, followed by Arabica and Excelsa, with 20.4% and 6.8% share. Liberica or “barako” coffee accounted for only 7% of the country’s total produce last year. — J.E.S. Tanyag

ANNUAL COFFEE YIELDS IN METRIC TONS,
BY REGION (2005-2009)
Region 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Philippines 105,847 104,093 97,877 97,428 96,433
CAR 6,010 6,346 6,252 5,950 5,700
Ilocos Region 78 85 88 98 105
Cagayan Valley 677 1,040 1,062 1,080 1,099
Central Luzon 1,627 1,534 1,591 1,673 1,706
CALABARZON 10,806 10,726 8,819 9,132 9,084
MIMAROPA 202 205 206 207 202
Bicol Region 382 366 340 339 335
Western Visayas 6,095 6,004 5,835 5,734 5,902
Central Visayas 585 364 314 295 251
Eastern Visayas 212 207 197 247 227
Zamboanga Peninsula 1,372 1,368 1,337 1,314 1,263
Northern Mindanao 6,037 6,292 6,287 6,203 6,016
Davao Region 29,769 28,839 24,466 24,066 23,632
SOCCSKSARGEN 27,187 27,047 27,123 27,022 27,554
Caraga 3,850 3,120 3,115 3,147 2,619
ARMM 10,958 11,000 10,844 10,922 10,737
Source: Bureau of Agricultural Statistics
 

I have been asked about my personal opinion about PL480 and the giving out of these stocks to those who have received them.And this is my take.
When I started my farm with goats back in 2005 I brought in many,many years experience with breeding livestock and a network of people worldwide to consult with.I did not start from ground zero like many have.
-I would say that many of these stocks will be dead,sick or skin and bones within 6-12months because of the lack of proper management practices,why, because dairy animals are prone to mastitis and milk fever and many will not be able to handle this when it happens,lack of real world experience working with dairy animals.
-all of these animals are use to a diet of dried alfalfa hay,high in protein and calcium.What native feed plants in the RP can compare to alfalfa is not fully understood as of yet.I believe malunggay and mulberry shows real promise.Here in N.America we feed our stocks with bagged concentrates to give our stocks the proper protein and mineral mix along with dried hay.The cut and carry method in the RP is mostly green feeds sometimes dried for a day or so.
-the observation that I have made, is that imported animals no matter how great their lineage or bloodlines are perform poorly when moved into a climate that is so different from the one they came from.From what we know now is that these stocks become the foundation for future offsprings that when selected for the next phase of breeding have a better chance of becoming something really good.Many of these fine imported bloodlines under PL480 will never amount to anything good to speak of under some of the management practices I see going on in the RP.
-when it comes to livestock breeding,nothing is a given,sometimes only heartache and misery follows.I learned this as one of the first to line-breed nubians in the RP.After spending 5 years to improve our does the gains were so small that all the time and monies spent was not worth the little gains made.Our nubians as I reported were better suited as meat over dairy.
-the understanding in the RP as to what a dairy goat should look like is not understood by most in the country.The few foreign owned farms have a better understanding over the native owned farms in this matter.The old saying, knowing what to fix instead of putting a band aid on hoping for a tempory fix.Most of the dairy does in the RP are really in poor shape and trying to take these poor does and breed them with better bloodlines to improve milk is a tempory fix.In the real world one breeds to correct the body before thinking about milk production.
-did anyone from the da,bai,goat raiser assoc,govt. even take into account the body faults of the native nubians in country first and then go to the US and select bloodlines that can correct all the faults first before considering milk production.Experienced breeders know first hand, before milk production one needs the correct body type.Experienced breeders also know some bloodlines cross poorly when not bred with a bloodline of equal value.
-considering that for every 1000 live heads imported from the US, the RP must repay appox. P78,000,000 million in the next 10 years and the tax payer will be on the hook for this debt.
-lets hope the tax payer can realize some real value here.

Kid Care

By John Hibma 

For goat dairies, the kids represent the future of the herd. Planning for their birth and rearing is an essential element of an effective and profitable management program for a goat owner. Newborn kids require that special level of attention so as to avoid any health challenges at birth that may negatively impact their chances of being a healthy and productive adult.

Kids are susceptible to many diseases at the time of birth, making sanitation the number-one item to focus on. Maternity areas must be clean and dry—preferably on bedding that does not harbor pathogens. Forcing does to give birth in muddy conditions is an open invitation to bacteria such as coliforms and campolybacter. Many breeders practice strict Caprine Arthritic Encephalitis (CAE) prevention methods and remove newborn kids from their dams just as soon as they are born to prevent the spread of CAE. Other breeders may chose to let CAE tested "negative" does raise their own kids for reduced human labor and maximum kid growth potential. But no matter what kid-rearing method is chosen, the importance of colostrum (first milk) feeding is the same.

The feeding of colostrum to the newborn is always encouraged due to the antibodies available in the immunoglobulin. A couple of cups of colostrum should be administered just as soon after birth as possible. The newborn's ability to absorb the antibodies diminishes over 10 to 12 hours and after a day, antibody absorption will cease.

Herd owners who know they have CAE in their herds must be extra vigilant at keeping kids from nursing their mother and even allowing the doe to lick the kid dry. Even though separation of doe and kid at the time of birth is not "nature's way," this is one of the few proven management tools that will help eradicate CAE from goat herds.

Colostrum should be collected from non-infected does when the opportunity presents itself and frozen for future use. Cow colostrum has also been used successfully for kids but there are concerns about the transfer of Johne's Disease (a debilitating cattle disease) into goat herds unless colostrum is heat-treated effectively. There are commercial colostrum supplements and milk replacers available for both calves and kids for an expensive alternative. But, if commercial milk replacers are to be considered, the owner should take care to purchase only those that are made from "milk components" such as whey and other milk proteins. Many cheaper milk replacers are made from vegetable proteins, which are poorly digested by the young goat.


Healthy kids should have access to soft hay as soon as possible, in order to stimulate the development of their rumen. Photo by Jennifer Stultz
 

Jennifer Poirier of Holland, Massachusetts, separates newborn kids from their mothers immediately after birth and does not allow them to nurse even though she's very confident her herd is CAE negative. She hand-milks the mother and feeds that colostrum (after heat treatment) to the newborns by bottle.

"When a doe has two and sometimes three kids, it's difficult to know if all of them are nursing and getting enough of the colostum on their own," she said.

Feeding them by the bottle is the only way she can be confident that the kids get adequate amounts of colostrum. She tries to get at least a cup of colostrum into the newborn kids in the first 24 hours after birth. While many of the newborn kids are up and around and ready to nurse shortly after birth, some of the kids will be too exhausted after delivery to drink much if any at all. With these kids Poirier takes the extra time to make sure they get adequate colostrum, feeding them a few ounces at a time. When necessary, she will get up in the middle of the night to make sure they get adequate colostrum in the first 24 hours.

All of Poirier's kids are bottle-fed individually until they're consuming a quart of milk per day at which time they are introduced into a group environment with other kids where they will all drink from a bucket feeder. She still keeps a close eye on them to make sure that none are falling behind.

When feeding newborn kids, sanitation of feeding equipment is essential. Bacteria grows quickly on uncleaned equipment, and new milk should never be added to old milk that has been setting around for many hours. Even with group feeding systems for kids, the buckets and nipples must be cleaned daily.

Disbudding is an unpleasant chore, but not as hard on kids as one might think. It saves the goat from a lifetime of distress in most goatherds. Acid pastes are available for discouraging horn growth, but Poirier, like most dairy goat breeders, prefers to use the hot-iron for the task. She makes it a point to disbud by the time kids are a week old—she's disbudded kids as young as four days old. When the kid is that young the process only takes about 10 seconds, and recovery time is less than five minutes. The older the kid gets the more painful disbudding becomes, making the task that much more of an unpleasant process for everyone concerned.

Coccidia is another endemic disease in goat herds. While older goats eventually develop an immunity to coccidia, young kids are highly susceptible. The bacteria is present in barnyard soils, cannot be eradicated, and sooner or later, once kids are let out of their pens into a common barnyard, they will be exposed. Coccidiosis prohibits absorption of nutrients and if serious enough will kill the kids through starvation. There are several effective methods for controlling coccidia in goat herds, and a local veterinarian is often the best resource for what works in each local. Some breeders use Decoxx® (decoquinate) added to the kids' grower diet, to prevent an onslaught of coccidian-related problems in kid growth and survival.

Kids cannot be weaned from milk until they are consistently eating several ounces per day of fine hay and a grain pellet. Newborn kids do not have a functioning rumen. They can only digest milk in their omassum and abomassum for the first week of life. However, in goats, rumen development seems to progress rapidly enabling kids to digest soft hay or grasses by the second week of life.

Len Woodis of New Braintree, Massachusetts, prefers to wean kids by the fourth or fifth week of age. He will however, wean them as early as three weeks if they're particularly healthy and aggressive. He watches them closely, making sure they are eating well. During that weaning process, which can be stressful to the kids, he will often give them a bottle of warm water for a few days to help make the transition off milk. Woodis stresses the need to have plenty of fresh, clean water available for kids during the weaning process.

Poirier likes to wait until the kids are a little older—eight weeks to even three months of age. She has both grain pellets and some soft hay available for the youngsters to nibble on just a few days after birth. Many of the kids will nibble on the hay and pellets right away even though their stomachs are not ready to digest it—probably more from the standpoint of exploring their new world than for nutrition. She noted that the bucklings are especially aggressive when it comes to sampling the new feeds.

Rumen development is a complex process involving the growth of the rumen papillae. Research on calves has shown that introducing grain to the diet, along with hay, soon after birth, helps the papillae development by way of the acids that are produced from grain fermentation. Most successful breeders make certain that the kids are eating a little bit of grain along with the hay before weaning off of milk.

Goat herds that spend much of the year on pasture will most likely have parasites. Kids are most susceptible to parasite infestations especially if they are in any way stressed from other problems such as coccidiosis or respiratory problems. Parasite infections will significantly slow growth and development. If a herd is known to have serious parasite problems, the kids, most importantly, must be evaluated through fecal sampling and eyelid evaluation.

One of the great joys of owning goats is watching the kids play and romp. They should remain that way forever—but—they do have to grow up. As kids grow they should be consistently eating between 3% and 4% of their body weight each day. A kid weighing 40 pounds should be consuming about 1.6 pounds of dry matter. To maintain a proper ratio of muscular-skeletal growth to weight gain, a diet consisting of 20% crude protein should be fed to kids until they themselves have kidded the following year. Young goat diets should always include a vitamin/mineral supplement, as well as plenty of clean, fresh water. Proper diets and an environment free of stress will result in a healthy, productive adult that will remain in the herd for many years.
 

Seven key drivers that shape Agri Commodities Markets in 2011 07 Jan 2011
Rabobank forecasts further price rises in a number of agricultural markets in 2011. The Agri Commodity Markets Research Outlook 2011 expects potential price rises to be greatest for corn, soybeans and coffee.

In this new report Rabobank agri commodities experts look at the lessons learned from the 2007/2008 food crisis, and list seven key thematic drivers of agricultural commodity markets in 2011.
 
1.Tightening inventory levels
Rabobank’s Luke Chandler believes that the current price rally is both broader and more structurally based than that of 2007/2008. “Stocks-to-use levels in many major products are at or below those seen in 2007/2008, with the exception of wheat. But prices have not responded on the same scale as three years ago. Corn prices, for example, are still 27% below the highs of 2008.”
 
According to the report the difference in the market reaction is partly due to the unstable macro environment in 2010. And energy prices have remained significantly lower than in 2008, providing less support for agricultural prices.
2.Supply limitations
A number of agricultural commodities need to expand production in 2011 to rebuild stock levels, which could cause significant supply constraints.
 
Chandler: “With cotton prices at record highs, a battle for acres is building as farmers decide whether to increase cotton acres over soybeans, wheat and corn.”
 
Other farm-input constraints such as fertiliser, chemicals, finance, seed, labour and machinery may impede efforts to respond to high prices in 2010.
 
In addition the availability of credit for farmers, and the current strength of the La Niña weather system - which heightens the risk of weather and production variability - could limit supply in 2011.
3.Emerging markets
Emerging economies are rebounding quicker from the global financial crisis than the west and are supporting demand for agricultural commodities.
 
For example, wheat demand in China, Brazil, Russia and India grew at 5% in each of the last two seasons, while it contracted 4% over the same period in the US and the EU.
 
Chandler: “Rapid economic expansion and changing dietary demands will continue to pressure traditional export supplies and encourage further investment in expanding supply, forming a key driver in the shift of the agricultural demand curve.”
4.Chinese demand for commodities
Chinese demand has a particular impact in reshaping agricultural commodity markets for soybeans, sugar, cotton and, potentially, corn.
 
“China has played a key role in transforming the global soybean markets,” explains Luke Chandler.
 
“China now accounts for 60% of global soybean imports, in addition to approximately 20% of world traded soybean. This growth has resulted in expanded planted area in the US and South America as soybeans became a major global commodity.”
 
Chandler expect this tremendous growth to be replicated in other commodities as China’s shifting consumption patterns increase demand.
5.Heightened political risk amid tightening food supplies
As seen in the 2007/08 agricultural bull rally, governments are extremely sensitive to food price inflation, and the potential of supply shortages in 2010 brought a muted re-emergence of government intervention in agricultural markets.
 
The imposition of grain export restrictions in the Black Sea region sent wheat prices soaring, and the EU decision to allow larger than expected sugar exports spurred a massive sell-off in November.
 
Chandler: “Governments have always played a role in the markets, a trend that in our view is highly likely to continue in 2011.“
6.Fundamentals only part of the story
With agriculture and agricultural futures markets increasingly being viewed as an attractive asset class by investors, the role of outside market macro drivers are becoming more important in shaping agricultural price movements.
 
Currency markets around the globe are playing an ever more important role in agricultural commodity prices. In addition energy prices are expected to increase in 2011, which will impact the price of sugar and corn, commodities used to produce ethanol.
7.Sustained heightened volatility
The combination of tightening fundamentals and increased macro influence and uncertainty is expected to see the increased price volatility witnessed in most agricultural markets in 2010 sustained at high levels into 2011.
 
Chandler: “We expect the volatility which rose in 2010 after dropping during the recession to remain high for 2011 – largely a result of the impact of the other six thematic drivers we have highlighted.”
 
Macro Economic Outlook
Rabobank’s forecasts for agricultural commodities in 2011 are influenced significantly by global growth assumptions as expressed in the macro economic Outlook 2011.
 
Chandler: “Expectations of continuing macro uncertainty and a mostly two-paced economic recovery in the year ahead suggest that agricultural demand will continue to rely on emerging markets, be it under a cloud of inflationary uncertainty. The continuation of large, undesirable budget imbalances maintained by many developed economies will only slowly be eroded – with fiscal tightening yet to show any marked improvement in the EU and the US.”
 

Philippines, Norway vaults saving rice diversity
By Cecil Morella (AFP) – Oct 23, 2010

LOS BANOS, Philippines — In a greenhouse near the Philippine capital, botanists grow strange grasses that bear tiny seeds which are promptly flown to a doomsday vault under Norway's Arctic permafrost.

The Norway deliveries are just the newest facet of a decades-old effort by more than 100 countries to save the world's many varieties of rice which might otherwise be lost.

A fire-proof, quake-proof, typhoon-proof gene bank set up by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in the Philippines in 1962 now holds 115,000 varieties of one of the world's most important grains.

"We've got genes stored which could potentially help us increase the yields of rice, improve pest tolerance and disease resistance, and help us address the effects of climate change," IRRI geneticist Fiona Hay said.

The rice varieties are grown at IRRI's sprawling complex at the university town of Los Banos, two hours' drive south of Manila, so that they can be provided -- free of charge -- to farmers or governments around the world.

Yet Hay said that rice varieties were constantly being lost forever, despite the preservation efforts of IRRI, a non-profit organisation funded by governments, multilateral banks and philanthropists.

Such losses are under a global spotlight this week as delegates from more than 190 countries meet at a UN summit in Nagoya, Japan, to map out a strategy to stop the world's rapid loss of biodiversity in all plants and animals.

A rice variety can easily vanish due to pests, disease, drought or other natural disasters like a cyclone, or if for some reason farmers simply stop planting it, Hay said.

Not just urbanisation, but even farming can push wild rice varieties into extinction.

And while some countries run their own gene banks, they are not always successful in preserving seeds. In the tropics, high humidity causes rice seeds to spoil after several years, Hay said.

At the IRRI gene bank in the Philippines, seeds are stored in dry and cool conditions and can remain usable for up to 40 years.

The institute keeps its base collection in tiny, sealed, bar-coded aluminium cans in a room kept at a temperature well below freezing.

They include a Malaysian variety that was collected soon after the gene bank opened in 1962, some reed-like Latin American ones that grow taller than a man, and Indian varieties that look more like crawling weeds.

Duplicates in small foil sachets of about 400 seeds each are stored in a separate vault kept at two degrees Celsius (35.6 Fahrenheit) and low humidity for passing on to those who need them for farming or research.

Given the importance of the collection, extra insurance is always desirable -- hence the rice gene bank being duplicated in Svalbard, Norway, Hay told AFP on a tour last week of the Philippine facility.

Since the Svalbard seed vault opened in February 2008, IRRI has reproduced 70,000 of its own grains and sent them in tiny freeze-dried aluminium cans to northern Norway, in a series of flights that take four days.

One final delivery of about 40,000 varieties is due to be flown out from Manila airport this week to complete the project.

The seeds include those no longer grown by farmers, plus 4,000-odd weeds with genes harnessed by scientists to make the rice plant more aromatic and more resistant to pests and disease, and tolerant of drought and saltwater.

Once completed, the Norway facility will act as a further backup to a US Department of Agriculture vault in Colorado that already holds duplicates of IRRI's seeds.

IRRI has in particular helped Cambodia's farmers to recover from the ravages of war. The Khmer Rouge regime killed millions of people -- many through starvation -- and forced farmers to grow only certain rice varieties in the 1970s.

Flora de Guzman, senior research manager of the gene bank, said she had once processed a request by Cambodia to send back seeds for about 500 of their native rice varieties.

"They lost the materials during the war. We had the collection here, so between 1981 and 1989 we repatriated the varieties that they lost," she said.

Copyright © 2011 AFP. All rights reserved.