Report Re-Examines Link between Meat Intake and Human Cancers
A major analysis of the sometimes contradictory scientific evidence by the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) concludes that high red meat consumption increases the risk of bowel cancer, while high white meat consumption does not, the Soil Association states in the appendix to a briefing on The Role of Livestock in Sustainable Food Systems.
A few individual studies have also found a link with prostate and pancreatic cancer.

The Soil Association says that widely-accepted concerns that the saturated fats found in red meat increase the risk of heart disease have found their way into the Government’s healthy eating guidelines.

There has also been research in Spain linking high red meat consumption to low male fertility.

However, it says that none of these negative effects has been established for chicken and other intensively produced white meat, so far.

One rather bizarre aspect of this issue, which has received little consideration, the Soil Association says, is that weekly consumption of beef in the UK fell from 244g per person in the early 1950s to 126g in the 1990s. In contrast, chicken consumption during the same period increased from 19 to 237 grams and has risen further since. Yet this is the very period during which cancer and heart disease has increased dramatically, the briefing note says.

This period equates to the major phase of agricultural intensification, when virtually all chickens and a significant proportion of cattle, even in the UK, were brought indoors and fed on a predominately cereal-based diet to increase productivity.

The organic food group points to research by scientists at the Institute of Brain Chemistry and Human Nutrition in London that has recently highlighted the fact that more than half the energy in a modern broiler chicken (as well as some organic chickens) comes from fat, whereas 60 years ago, the vast majority of the energy came from protein.

Even more significantly though, the Soil Association says, the proportion of the omega-3 fatty acid, DHA, found at significant levels in grass, has fallen dramatically in chicken meat, which today contains only one-fifth of the level found in wild birds.

In contrast, levels of the omega-6 fatty acids derived from grain have not fallen, giving a highly unhealthy balance of almost 10 times as much omega-6 as omega-3.

The scientists study associates this with the rise of brain dementia.

Professor Michael Crawford, one of the authors, says: "Essential fats for the brain are the priority. In biochemical terms, the limiting factor for the brain is the omega-3 [docosahexaenoic acid; DHA] to get the same amount of DHA from a modern broiler chicken you need to eat about three to five chickens at a cost of over £12 and with 5,000 calories of thrombogenic and atherogenic fats included." (Crawford, 2009, personal communication).

While a similar trend has occurred with intensively produced beef and pork, grass-fed beef has an omega-6 to omega-3 ration of just 1.65:1.

A very high proportion of beef in recent decades, however, has been produced intensively, in feedlots in the US and many other countries, and in the barley-beef systems pushed by MAFF for so many years.

The Soil Association asks if could this be an explanation for the studies that have found harmful trends associated with high red meat consumption.

"We have to remember too that the WCRF included pork in their definition of red meat and worldwide a high proportion of pork is produced in the most appallingly intensive conditions," the Soil Association says.

The beneficial effects of omega-3 fatty acids are, as yet, widely accepted only in relation to cardiovascular disease and it is for this reason that we are advised to eat two portions of oily fish a week, but recent research has shown that Western diets are typically as high as 16:1, omega-6 to omega-3, but that reducing this to:

2.5:1 reduced colo-rectal cancer cells and the risk of breast cancer in women, and
5:1 suppressed inflammation in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. (Simopoulos, 2008).
Even the WCRF, which has been at the forefront of the global campaign to reduce the consumption of red meat, has acknowledged that the meat of wild animals has a very different fat profile to that of most farmed animals and may therefore not be linked to increased cancer risk, the association's briefing says.

"However, it has failed to acknowledge that production systems much closer to the wild are likely to produce meat with similar characteristics to wild animals.

"This is a serious omission, because in the absence of such a recognition economics are driving extensive producers out of business at a much faster rate than intensive ones.

"Meat and milk from predominantly grass-fed animals have other advantages too: higher levels of beneficial conjugated linoleic acid and many other important micro-nutrients associated with increased well-being," the Soil Association concludes.

March 2011

Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Pork Commentary: Hogs & Pigs Report - More of the Same
CANADA - In this week's Pork Commentary, Jim Long comments on the 1 March Hogs and Pigs report released by the US Department of Agriculture on 25 March.


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
Last Friday the USDA released the 1 March Hogs and Pigs Report. There are no big surprises. It shows an industry treading water. We expect prices will track over the coming months very close to where lean hog futures closed. For example last Friday with June at 103.70.

US Breeding Herd
The US breeding herd was estimated at 5.788 million on 1 March up 28,000 from a year ago (5.760) and up 10, 000 (5.778) from 1 December. This is a year over year difference of about ½ of 1 per cent; basically no change. At this time we see no indications of significant expansion plans. Historically high hog prices are being balanced off by historically high feed prices and real tight financial credit. The mood of the industry in our estimation is restrained optimism. There appears to be little enthusiasm for breeding herd expansion.

Market
The USDA estimated 58,176 million market hogs in inventory 1 March up just under 400,000 head from a year ago. The 400,000 head increase can be explained by our market hog weights up around 4 – 5 pounds year over year. Heavier hogs lead to longer days to market and larger inventories. 400,000 head is just over one day of US hog marketing’s.

Farrowing Intentions
The US breeding herd according to the USDA on March 1st was ½ of 1 per cent higher than a year ago. If this is correct you would expect farrowing intentions to be essentially the same as a year ago.

USDA Farrowing (thousands)
YEAR 2009 2010 2011
MARCH – MAY 3018 2929 2854
JUNE - AUGUST 2959 2944 2867

Farrowing intentions according to the USDA will be about 150,000 litters less over the next six months than a year ago. This with a breeding inventory essentially the same? It doesn’t make sense in some ways how will there be less farrowings with the same number of sows? Either there are less sows or farrowing intentions are under estimated?! We have no strong opinion other than we don’t believe there will be more pork produced in the next six months compared to a year ago.

Pig Crop
The US pig crop the last three months was 27.986 million up about 400,000 compared to the same three months a year ago (27.596) but down 600,000 from two years ago (28.552).

Litter Size
The productivity from pigs per litter just keeps getting better and better with Dec – Feb this year 9.80 up from 9.61 last year and up 9.48 from two year ago. We expect the gain is mostly from improving genetics. The last two years gain of .32 per litter is actually tracking below our company’s .45 per litter genetic trend line over the last two years.

Summary
Breeding inventory, and market inventory are holding steady, we expect lean hog prices will continue strong for the rest of the year.

Other Observations
We visited Korean customers this past week, the Foot and Mouth disease has eliminated approximately 350,000 sows and 3.5 million market hogs. Last week’s South Korean market hog price touched $7.00 US live weight a kilogram or about $3.28 US per pound. A price we have never seen so high, anywhere. Prices are always a reflection of supply and demand. Prices of $7.00 per kilogram are a true reflection of this scenario. Expect extraordinary amounts of pork to be exported to South Korea from North America in the coming months. It will be extremely price supporting.


Packers we talked to last week and other reports indicate Japanese Pork Exports continue unabated despite the crisis underway. It’s a major reason June lean hog futures have recovered from 95 cents to $1.03 in the last ten days.
Conclusion
Pig Report shows little inventory change. A steady breeding herd tells us Market Hogs have a good chance to stay over 90 cents for the next year.

Thursday, March 31, 2011
March Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report Analysis
US - USDA’s March hogs and pigs report said the hog herd was slightly larger than pre-release trade forecasts, writes Ron Plain.
 
Ron Plain
USDA said the market inventory was up 0.6 per cent. The average of the pre-release trade estimates was for a 0.1 per cent decline. Kept for breeding was up 0.5 per cent according to USDA. The trade estimate was for a 0.2 per cent decline. USDA’s estimate of the total number of hogs and pigs on US farms at the start of March was 0.6 per cent larger than 12 months earlier. The average of the trade estimates was for no change. (See Table 1 below)

USDA made some upward revisions to past inventory estimates to bring them more in line with winter hog slaughter. USDA raised their previous estimate of the December market hog inventory by 300,000 head (0.5 per cent), increased the reported number of sows farrowed during June-August 2010 by 1.3 per cent and increased the June-August pig crop by 359,000 head (1.3 per cent).

The March swine breeding herd was 7.1 per cent lower than at the last cycle peak in December 2007. For the last five quarters, the US swine breeding herd has been within 12,000 head of 5.772 million. In 2010 the March breeding herd inventory was 90,000 head smaller than on 1 December. This year it was 10,000 head larger. Thus, USDA says the breeding herd grew by 100,000 head more this winter than last. December-February sow slaughter was down by 28,900 compared to a year ago. About 35,500 of the drop in sow slaughter was due to reduced imports of Canadian sows for slaughter, leaving 6,600 more US sows slaughtered this winter than last. The USDA data implies 106,600 more gilts were added to the breeding herd this winter than last.

USDA said winter (December-February) farrowings were down 0.6 per cent and forecast both spring and summer farrowings to be down 2.6 per cent compared to 12 months earlier. (See Table 3) Winter farrowings were 0.2 per cent higher than trade expectations. The forecast of spring farrowings is 1.2 per cent lower than expected and summer farrowings are forecast to be 2.1 per cent below the trade forecast. The lack of growth is likely due to high feed costs which have pushed breakeven prices above $60/cwt (live) and $80/cwt (carcass). If USDA is right, the number of sows farrowed will be below year-earlier for 13 consecutive quarters.

USDA says the breeding herd is up 1.5 per cent, but the number of litters to be farrowed in the next six months will be down 2.6 per cent. That seems an unlikely combination.

The number of pigs per litter remains high. The trade was expecting a 1.7 per cent increase, but USDA said December-February pigs per litter were 2.0 per cent higher than the same months last year. The benefit of reduced farrowings is being offset by increases in the number of pigs weaned per litter. Winter farrowings were down 0.6 per cent; but with 2.0 per cent more pigs per litter, the winter pig crop was up 1.4 per cent.

USDA’s survey indicated the number of market hogs weighing 180 pounds or more on 1 March was even with 12 months earlier. (See Table 2) However, it looks like March barrow and gilt slaughter will be 1.5 per cent below last year. The 120-179 pound market hog group was also unchanged from March 2010. The 50-179 pound inventory was up 1.5 per cent; and the inventory of pigs weighing less than 50 pounds was up 0.7 per cent compared to a year earlier.

Live animal imports from Canada during the December-February quarter showed feeder pigs down 0.9 per cent and slaughter hog imports down 9.5 per cent. In 2007, 10.0 million live hogs were imported from Canada. In 2009, 6.4 million head came south. Imports of Canadian hogs and pigs for 2010 totaled 5,747,827 million head. Look for 2011 imports to total close to 5.5 million head.

Based on the 50-179 pound market hog inventory and the expectation of little change in live hog imports, our forecast is for an increase of 1.0 per cent in second quarter 2011 daily hog slaughter compared to April-June 2010. With this level of pork production, we expect 51-52 per cent lean hogs to average in the low to mid $60s live and Iowa-Minnesota negotiated sales to average in the low to mid $80s on a carcass weight basis.

For the third quarter of 2011 we expect hog slaughter to be up 0.8 per cent compared to July-September 2010 with 51-52 per cent lean hogs averaging in the mid $60s live, and Iowa hogs averaging in the mid $80s/cwt on a carcass basis.

With the number of litters farrowed expected to be down 2.6 per cent this spring and pigs per litter increasing by 2 per cent or so, the spring pig crop is likely to be slightly below a year earlier. We are forecasting fourth quarter 2011 slaughter to be down 0.9 per cent compared to a year ago. Look for carcass prices of barrows and gilts to average in the upper $70s/cwt. Slaughter weights are likely to average 1.0-1.5 per cent higher this year.

The forecast 2.6 per cent decrease in fall farrowings should be supplemented by an increase in litter size but still yield a fall pig crop below a year-earlier causing first quarter 2012 hog slaughter to be down 1 per cent or so on a daily basis. Our estimates of slaughter and prices for the next four quarters are in Table 4. Our price forecasts are well below what the futures market is predicting.

Table 1.  Hog Inventories March 1, U.S.

______________________________________________________________

                                           2011 as % of 2010
       Market                                    100.6
       Kept for breeding                         100.5
       All hogs and pigs                         100.6
______________________________________________________________

Table 2.  Market Hogs on Farms December 1, U.S.
______________________________________________________________

     Weight Category                       2011 as % of 2010
        Under 50 pounds                          100.7
        50 - 119 pounds                          101.5
        120 - 179 pounds                         100.0
        180 pounds and over                      100.0
     Pig Crop
        December-February                        101.4
______________________________________________________________

Table 3.  Sows Farrowed and Farrowing Intentions, U.S.
______________________________________________________________

                                            2009 as % of 2008
       March-May 2009                             98.9
       June-August 2009                           96.2
       September-November 2009                    96.3
                                            2010 as % of 2009
       December-February                          95.4
       March-May 2010                             97.1
       June-August 2010                           99.5
       September-November 2010                    97.7
                                            2011 as % of 2010
       December-February                          99.4
       March-May 2011                             97.4
       June-August 2011                           97.4
______________________________________________________________


Table 4.  Commercial Hog Slaughter and Barrow and Gilt Price by Quarter
_______________________________________________________________________

           --Comm. Slaughter--   ------Barrows & Gilts, price/cwt------
                     Change        51-52%    Iowa-Minn   Non-packer-sold
Year &     Million    from         Lean         Base            Net
Quarter      Head   Year ago       Live        Carcass        Carcass
_______________________________________________________________________

2006 1       26.208   + 2.6%       $42.63       $56.38         $58.37
     2       24.839   - 0.8         48.45        65.27          65.96
     3       25.810   + 1.1         51.83        68.04          69.13
     4       27.880   + 1.4         46.13        60.53          62.04
     Year   104.737   + 1.1         47.26        62.54          63.86

2007 1       26.684   + 1.8%       $46.04       $59.90         $62.69
     2       25.526   + 2.8         52.55        69.45          71.39
     3       26.566   + 2.9         50.34        66.14          69.17
     4       30.396   + 9.0         39.44        52.08          56.83
     Year   109.172   + 4.2         47.09        61.91          65.04

2008 1       29.601   +10.9%       $39.64       $52.49         $57.41
     2       27.941   + 9.5         52.51        70.43          72.24
     3       28.696   + 8.0         57.27        75.67          78.05
     4       30.214   - 0.6         41.92        55.60          61.38
     Year   116.452   + 6.7         47.83        63.58          67.27

2009 1       28.503   - 3.7%       $42.11       $57.23         $60.43
     2       27.072   - 3.1         42.74        57.32          61.76
     3       28.428   - 0.9         38.90        51.43          56.68
     4       29.615   - 2.0         41.20        54.98          57.64
     Year   113.618   - 2.4         41.24        55.23          59.11

2010 1       27.631   - 3.1%       $50.41       $66.81         $68.32
     2       26.069   - 3.7         59.60        79.04          79.42
     3       26.927   - 5.3         60.13        79.44          80.70
     4       29.629   + 0.1         50.11        65.21          69.26
     Year   110.257   - 3.0         55.06        72.62          74.47

2011 1*      27.490   - 0.5        $60.06        $79.00        $80.50
     2**     26.330   + 1.0        62 - 65       82 - 86       84 - 88
     3**     27.150   + 0.8        63 - 66       83 - 87       85 - 89
     4**     29.360   - 0.9        58 - 61       77 - 81       79 - 83
     Year** 110.330   + 0.1        60 - 63       80 - 84       82 - 86

2012 1**     27.220   - 1.0        $61 - 64      $81 - 85      $84 - 88
 *estimated
 **forecast

Friday, March 25, 2011
PIC Raises the Bar with New Gilt Production Units
PHILIPPINES - To serve the increasing demand from Filipino pork producers for superior performing PIC boars and gilts, PIC is expanding its production capacity by more than 5,000 GGP and GP sows in the Philippines.
 

PIC genetics have been proven to increase output and efficiency, a necessity in facing today’s challenges of increasing fuel and feed material costs, as well as the persistent health problems that hound local pork producers.

For nearly 50 years, PIC has been delivering true competitive advantage to pork producers worldwide by increasing output, efficiency and having a strong health assurance program that reduces the risks to both large commercial farmers as well as the smaller, home based pig producers. Over the last decade PIC has been successful in accelerating its rate of genetic improvement due to a new innovative production structure and continuing investments in research and development.

PIC Philippines further raises the bar in production technology, operations management, use of renewable energy and environmental management with the launching of 2 new, state-of-the-art gilt multiplication units. These units are by far the most biosecure and advanced facility design in swine production in the country to be built from the ground up. The facilities are built according to local conditions and will maximize the expression of the high performance potential of PIC animals.

PIC Philippines Production Manager, Mr. Patrick Ty says: “We are confident these 2 farms will be leaders in production efficiency and become shining examples of world class hog farming in the Philippines”. PIC Philippines, partnered with Venvi Agro-Industrial Ventures Corp., and RDF Meatshop, Inc. (RDFMI), two corporate powerhouses also engaged in poultry production, real estate development and meat retail.

Construction of the Venvi-Agro 2,400-sow level Camborough gilt production unit began in August 2010, on a biosecure location within a 460 hectare property in San Nicolas, Ilocos Norte. The site scored very high on the PIC 1,000 point health risk assessment system. Designed as a 2-site (breed-to-farrow and wean-to-finish) production facility with climate control and automatic feeding systems, this unit will eventually be energy-positive as power is produced with methane fueled generators and solar power. Initial stocking started in January 2011 and will produce both PIC Grand Parent gilts and Camborough Parent Gilts by the fourth quarter of 2011.

PIC has built a strong relationship with Venvi Agro-Industrial Ventures Corp., a division of Venvi Group of Companies, an innovative and pioneering organization committed to producing high quality food products and being globally competitive in feeding our people. They are the largest supplier of chicken eggs in Ilocos region and continue to bring pride to Ilocos due to its honorable corporate values and commitment to innovation and social progress. “Having understood the level of investment needed to become a serious player in this business and seeing the market opportunities from visiting commercial operations around the country and the US, we decided to get things right from the start by choosing the right partners. With PIC’s help, we have properly addressed the factors - genetics, facilities, health, technology and people - needed to shorten the learning curve and make this a successful venture”, said Atty. Larry Valdez, President of Venvi Agro.

A long time PIC customer that has grown over the years from a 200 sow level commercial farm when it started its hog business a decade ago, RDF Meatshop, Inc., held the groundbreaking ceremony for its new 2,500 sow level unit last February 2011 in a biosecure location in Tarlac. RDFMI also signed up with PIC as a Camborough 24 parent gilt multiplier for this new production unit. Operating under a 2-site production system, building facilities are equipped with climate control, automatic feeding systems and methane powered generators. RDFMI is the company behind the immense success of the Fresh Options meat shop chain currently running more than 70 branches in Pampanga, Bulacan, Bataan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Olongapo, Zambales and Mega Manila, and still growing. RDFMI has chosen PIC as the breed of choice in growing their meat retailing business as PIC meets Fresh Options’ high standards in providing quality meats for their MEATiculous customers.

“We are happy with the trust and commitment by our proactive partners, Venvi and RDFMI, in working with us on these projects to support the growing needs of our customers. Together, we look forward to providing local producers with more access points for superior genetics that will set a new standard for the Philippine pork industry ,” said Mr. Vino Borromeo, PIC Philippines General Manager.

With the addition of RDFMI and Venvi-Agro, PIC Philippines has grown its production capacity into 14 multiplication units, 3 genetic nucleus sites, and 5 distribution centers spread across the country. PIC Philippines turns 15 years this year in bringing healthy genetic improvement to Filipino producers since its first importation of live animals in 1996.

S Korea Says FMD Costs Near $2.7 Bln
SOUTH KOREA - South Korea, battling against its worst ever outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease said on Thursday that the crisis has cost nearly 3 trillion won (S$3.42 billion) so far.


Prime Minister Kim Hwang-sik also said in a statement that the government would lower its disease alert to "watch" from "seriousness", noting the cases were waning, while stepping up quarantines at borders including airports to block the potential entry of any virus.

In the past four months, Asia's fourth-largest economy has culled a third of its hog population and five per cent of cattle in a bid to stop the disease. It has also vaccinated animals.

"The government will make a routine to vaccinate cows and pigs to prevent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak," Prime Minister Kim said.

Monday, March 28, 2011
An Eye on Recovery Efforts and Feed Grain Trade
JAPAN - The US Grains Council reports the Japanese industry has been making significant strides to regain its normal feed mill production capacity within the next few months.


“Assuming significant escalation of the nuclear power plant issues will not arise and in spite of the horrendous losses suffered in Japan, the Council believes the consumer demand in Japan will remain strong and will drive continued imports of US coarse grains,” said Tommy Hamamoto, USGC director in Japan. “In the short-term, logistical issues will continue to be a problem, but the Japanese feed industry is working hard to recover from the damage. By April or May, the Council is hopeful Japan will recover and return to a somewhat normalcy.”

As previously reported by the Council, four of Japan’s major importing facilities and attached feed mills were severely damaged by the earthquake and subsequent tsunami that struck Japan on 11 March. These four facilities account for approximately 3.66 million metric tons of compound feed production per year – around 15 per cent of Japan’s total annual compound feed production of 25 million tons. Another mill, which accounts for an additional 15 per cent, suffered some damage but compound feed production has already partially resumed.

“Japan is prepared to cover the feed loss by facilities coming back online and increased production in unaffected mills. These [unaffected] mills are sending feed supplies in small vessels to affected areas,” Hamamoto said. “There are currently bottlenecks: the capacity of unaffected ports to unload redirected shipments and storage limitations; impeded passage of ships through channels caused by debris in shipping lanes; increased transportation costs, fuel supplies and shortage of trucks and ships; and power needed for production and processing. The Council hopes those serious bottlenecks will be short-term setbacks in the recovery efforts.”

The Council has heard reports of limited loss of animal herds or flocks.

“Since the majority of livestock and poultry farms are located near Japan’s mountain side (west side of Japan), minimal animal loss is expected from the tsunami. However, logistics of fuels, feed and products continue to be a problem for those farms,” said Hiroko Sakashita, USGC associate director in Japan, adding the Council anticipates knowing the total impact in a few weeks. “In addition, some animal production was affected as facilities had to be evacuated due to elevated radiation levels. This market may further be affected by negative perceptions and false information on their products.”

Exposure to radiation will remain a longer term concern. Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries released a notice alerting livestock farmers to be cautious and not to feed radioactive-material-contaminated hay, roughage, silage and water to livestock. It recommends that farmers keep their animals indoors if possible. According to Council sources, feed millers in Hokkaido, Chukyo, Kansai and Kyushu have been working around the clock to ensure that sufficient supply of animal feed is available in the damaged area.

“The Council is searching for the best opportunity to get involved with the relief efforts in Japan. Mostly what we hear is to wait, since much of the relief is being provided by the Japanese government,” Hamamoto said. “The Council will continue to monitor the recovery efforts and determine how to best utilize our resources and assets to help mitigate long term damage.”

Monday, March 28, 2011
CME: Key Data from Latest Hogs and Pigs Report
US - USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released Friday afternoon, contained estimates of 1 March US hog and pig inventories that were modestly higher than one year ago and, for the most part, slightly higher than analysts’ prereport estimates, according to Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.


The key data in the report are shown below. Note that all of the inventory numbers were higher than the average of analysts’ estimates. Only the 50-119 pound inventory exceeded the estimate by more than 1 per cent. The report may be slightly bearish for nearby CME Lean Hog futures on Monday. Lower-than-expected farrowing and farrowing intentions numbers may be slightly bullish for deferred contracts.


Some highlights from the report are:

A 1 March breeding herd that numbers 5.788 million head, 0.5 per cent higher than one year ago and 10,000 higher than on 1 December. The trade had expected a slight reduction in the herd. We commented last week that we did not think sow slaughter had been large enough to reduce the breeding herd and USDA apparently agrees. The “hog crush” (ie. estimated profits using corn, soybean meal and lean hogs futures) for 2011 has improved some since March 1 but is still not large enough in our opinion to encourage widespread expansion. But the primary limiting factor for hog number expansion remains uncertainty about the 2011 corn crop and resulting feed cots. Low projected 2011 carryout stocks offer livestock and poultry producers no comfort for the 2011-12 crop year.


Market hogs on US farms numbered 58.176 million head, 0.6 per cent higher than last year but 2.8 and 4.7 per cent smaller than on 1 March of 2008 and 2009, respectively. While slightly larger than in 2010, hog supplies are still significantly smaller than just 2 years ago — in response to higher costs!


10.744 million head of pigs weighing 180 pounds and over on 1 March, virtually identical to the number of animals in this weight class one year ago. Many of those pigs will have already reached slaughter weight by now. Federallyinspected slaughter since 1 March has been 1.1 per cent LOWER than during the same period (24 weekdays and 4 Saturdays) one year ago. If anything, more of the 180 and over category should have reached market weight in March of this year due to better quality 2010 corn and higher growth rates. The difference here raises a bit of concern that USDA’s pig numbers may be a bit high. It is not, however, large enough to conclude that with any certainty.


Farrowing numbers for Dec-Feb and farrowing intentions for the next two quarters that are significantly lower, relative to last year, than is the breeding herd. The implication is lower farrowing rates in the immediate past quarter and the two quarters to come. In fact, there have been only two lower annualized farrowing rates since the advent of circovirus vaccines in 2007 and, should they be correct, these would mark the first time since 1996-97 that three straight quarters have been below the 12-quarter moving average. Lower actual litters farrowed are definitely possible if the breeding herd is right. Of course, the breeding herd could be high.


The second quarter of a return to 2 per cent yr/yr litter growth. This marks 10 of the last 12 quarters in which that rate has been achieved. The 9.8 pigs/litters saved in Dec-Feb is the highest ever for that quarter.
 

May 2011 is suppose to be the month that the country gets her FMD status free certification.This will open the door to allow the movement of livestock from the north to the south.The added advantage of new bloodlines for those in the southern region will help produce even better breeds than what is available now.Selection of better quality breeding stocks is one of the keys for success taking into account other factors like environment,climate,management and feeds.This will also help the northern breeders to unload surplus breeding stocks.For all livestocks,the added advantage of possible exports,is attractive.Look at the Japan crisis.the country is in need of food related products to help rebuild the country and feed her people.Due to the fact the FMD ban is still in place makes exports for some livestock products much more difficult.The Japanese crisis could have been a real shot in the arm for Philippine agriculture.The lifting of the ban will help agriculture in the country for many,many years to come.The problems in Japan and South Korea might be the Philippines gain,lets hope so and try to take advantage of this opportunity.

Feed Outlook - March 2011
World coarse grain production and beginning stocks forecast for 2010/11 are reduced this month, lowering supply 2.5 million tons, according to the latest report from the USDA Economic Research Service.
 

However, projected global use is 3.3 million tons lower this month, allowing for a 0.8-million-ton increase in ending stocks to 154.9 million tons. The global stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 13.8 per cent, slightly lower than in 2006/07 when stocks were 9 per cent lower but use was smaller. US 2010/11 supply and use forecasts for feed grains are unchanged this month except for a small reduction in barley exports and an offsetting increase in ending stocks. Price projections are adjusted, but the midpoint of the forecast corn farm price range is unchanged.


DOMESTIC OUTLOOK

2010/11 Feed Grain Supplies and Use Essentially Unchanged This Month
US feed grain supplies for 2010/11 remain at 380.3 million metric tons this month, unchanged from last month’s projection but down 4.4 per cent from last year. Total use of the four feed grains is nearly unchanged this month at 359.5 million metric tons. With demand exceeding supply, ending stocks are expected to be drawn down to 20.8 million metric tons, the lowest level since the end of the 1995/96 marketing year.The midpoint of the projected range for the 2010/11 corn price received by farmers remains at $5.40 a bushel this month, but both the lower and upper end of the range are reduced by 10 cents, to $5.15-$5.65 a bushel. With the exception of last month, corn prices at the farm gate have been below $5.00 a bushel so far this year. If the preliminary February price of $5.66 a bushel is confirmed, this will be the first time since September 2008 that prices at the farm gate have exceeded $5.00.

Feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat on a September-August marketing year basis is unchanged this month, remaining at 142.7 million metric tons. Grain-consuming animal units (GCAU’s) are projected at 93.3 million this month, up slightly from last month's 93.1 million due to an increase in broiler production. The broiler production increase largely reflects relatively heavy bird weights, but the increase in forecast turkey production reflects higher poult placements as well as increased bird weights. Feed and residual use per animal unit is unchanged this month at 1.53 tons, which is down from 1.54 tons in 2009/10.

Minor Changes Made to Feed Grain Price Projections
The midpoint of the projected range for the 2010/11 corn price received by farmers remains at $5.40 a bushel this month, but both the lower and upper end of the range are reduced by 10 cents, to $5.15-$5.65 a bushel. With the exception of last month, corn prices at the farm gate have been below $5.00 a bushel so far this year. If the preliminary February price of $5.66 a bushel is confirmed, this will be the first time since September 2008 that prices at the farm gate have exceeded $5.00.

 

 

 


The farm price has been below prevailing cash market bids due to farmers forward contracting when prices were lower. Farm gate prices are expected to well exceed $6.00 per bushel in the coming months to reach the $5.40 midpoint of the projected season average price range.

The projected sorghum price received by farmers is lowered by 20 cents at the top end of the range, to $5.15-$5.65 a bushel. This lowered the midpoint by 10 cents to $5.40 per bushel, reflecting year-to-date price data. The barley and oat price estimates were also changed slightly this month, reflecting year-to-date data. The barley farm price projection is reduced by 10 cents and now stands at $3.70-$3.90 per bushel. The oat farm price projection is increased by 5 cents, to $2.35-$2.55 per bushel.

US barley exports for the 2010/11 crop year are lowered from 10 million bushels to 8 million bushels, reflecting shipments to date and minimal outstanding sales.

 

 

 


Ethanol Projection Unchanged
Corn used for fuel is unchanged. Recent lower weekly ethanol production and higher stock levels, according to Energy Information Administration data, are consistent with last month’s projection. Current ethanol production has returned to levels close to those prier to last December's increase. High petroleum and gasoline prices have reduced gasoline demand, lowering gasoline production. As ethanol blending nears practical limits, demand has deepened.

March Planting Intentions and Stocks Report are Keys to Price Prospects
Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings are the key reports that will be released by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service on March 31, 2011. The stocks report will show grain stocks as of 1 March 2011. Stocks that are lower-thanexpected will imply greater feeding in the quarter ending 1 March and would be bullish for prices. A higher-than-expected stock level may moderate price increases somewhat.

At the 25 February 2011, USDA Outlook Conference, corn plantings this spring were projected at 92 million acres. Prices will likely respond if planted acreage is much different than this projection. In the past 20 years, the March projection was below the final acreage number 8 times and above it 12 times.

INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK

World Coarse Grain Production Prospects for 2010/11 Reduced
Global coarse grain production for 2010/11 is projected down 1.8 million tons this month to 1,079.7 million. Reductions for Mexico, India, and Australia more than offset improved expectations for Brazil. World corn, barley, and sorghum production are each reduced 0.5 million tons, while global oats production is trimmed 0.3 million.

Mexico’s corn production for 2010/11 is cut 2.0 million tons to 22.0 million as an early February freeze devastated the crop in Sinaloa. The corn marketing year for Mexico is October-September, with about 75 per cent of the crop being produced in the main season (harvested in the fall). However, most of the winter-crop corn is grown in Sinaloa with irrigation. An exceptional freeze hit in the first week of February, with about 80 per cent of the corn planted. Satellite imagery verifies that much of the corn crop was killed. Some replanting will limit losses, but high temperatures later in the season will limit the window for replanting. Most of the Sinaloa corn is white corn destined for products for human consumption, such as tortillas.

India’s coarse grain production is cut 1.3 million tons to 40.4 million based on more complete harvest reports covering the last monsoon season. Sorghum area harvested came in 4 per cent below previous expectations, with average yields trimmed slightly more, cutting production 0.7 million tons to 6.8 million. Corn area was reported higher than expected, but yields were lower leaving production reduced 0.5 million tons to 20.5 million. Millet production is trimmed 0.1 million tons, but barley is increased 0.05 million.


Australia’s coarse grain production is reduced 0.5 million tons this month to 13.4 million. More complete harvest reports indicate lower barley yields, cutting production 0.5 million tons to 9.3 million. Oats area and yields are reduced, cutting production 0.25 million tons to 1.5 million, but excellent sorghum yield prospects boost projected production 0.25 million tons to 2.2 million. Ukraine oats production is trimmed as lower area more than offset good reported yields. Also, Moldova’s 2010/11 coarse grain production is reduced slightly with a decline in barley more than offsetting a small increase in corn.

Brazil’s corn production prospects are increased 2.0 million tons this month to 53.0 million. Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture reported excellent yields for the mainseason corn crop now being harvested. While the second-crop corn planted following short-season soybeans has been delayed by slow soybean harvesting, especially in Mato Grosso, the Government has extended the permitted planting window, supporting area prospects. However, late planted second-crop corn in Mato Grosso is more susceptible to an early end of the wet season, potentially limiting production prospects.

World coarse grain beginning stocks for 2010/11 are reduced this month by 0.7 million tons to 195.1 million. The largest reduction is for Brazil, with corn beginning stocks cut 0.4 million tons to 10.1 million due to stronger-than-expected exports during the March-February 2009/10 local marketing year (just ending). India’s coarse grain beginning stocks are down 0.1 million tons, mostly because of strong corn feed use and exports in 2009/10, partly offset by increased millet stocks. Saudi Arabia’s beginning stocks for 2010/11 are down 0.1 million this month as 2009/10 trade data show barley imports fell short of previous expectations. There are also small reductions in corn beginning stocks this month for Kenya and Taiwan.


Global Use of Coarse Grains Reduced for 2010/11
Total world coarse grain use in 2010/11 is projected down 3.3 million tons this month to 1,119.9 million. Feed use is forecast up 0.3 million tons, but food, seed, and industrial use is down. Trade changes contribute heavily to the projected decline in global use.

Projected EU coarse grain total use is up 1.2 million tons this month with increases of 1.0 million tons for corn and 0.2 million for sorghum. Import licenses are up as prices in the EU encourage imports. Ukraine’s total coarse grain use is up 0.5 million tons, with feed use up 0.4 million as the slow pace of barley exports and uncertainty about export licenses is expected to encourage domestic use. Corn feed use prospects are increased slightly for Moldova.

Coarse grain feed use prospects are cut 0.9 million tons for Russia as the grain export ban has kept internal prices low, especially for low-quality wheat, discouraging imports and feeding of corn (down 0.5 million tons) and barley (down 0.4 million). Australia’s feed use is trimmed 0.4 million tons, with lower barley and oats production more than offsetting increased sorghum. There is also a small reduction in corn feed use prospects this month for Taiwan.

India’s coarse grain total use is down 1.3 million tons this month to 37.6 million. Lower production of sorghum, corn, and millet is expected to cut human consumption, with a reduction in projected sorghum feed use of 0.2 million tons. Food use is also cut this month for Mexican corn (down 0.3 million tons), Kenyan corn (down 0.1 million), and Chinese barley (trimmed 0.1 million).

Local marketing year trade changes can alter global use (see last month’s write up). With the sum of local marketing year coarse grain exports reduced 1.1 million tons this month, while the sum of imports are increased 0.9 million tons, the trade changes combine to reduce global coarse grain use by 2.0 million tons.

World Ending Stocks Projected Higher
Projected 2010/11 coarse grain use is cut more this month than supply, boosting forecast global ending stocks 0.8 million tons to 154.9 million. World corn ending stocks are up 0.6 million tons to 123.1 million. Global barley and millet stocks are up slightly while sorghum and oats prospects are trimmed.

The largest increase in projected 2010/11 ending stocks is a 1.6-million ton-increase for corn in Brazil to 8.8 million tons. Increased production is only partly offset by reduced beginning stocks, and forecast use (on a local marketing year) is unchanged. Brazil’s 2010/11 ending stocks are still projected lower than beginning stocks, but the tightening of stocks is not as great as projected a month ago. Other increases in projected ending stocks include a 0.3-million-ton increase in barley for both the EU and Ukraine, as well as small increases for US barley and Taiwan corn.

Partly offsetting the 2010/11 increased ending stocks expected for Brazil and others this month are several countries with reduced expected ending stocks. Mexico’s corn stocks are reduced 0.4 million tons to 1.5 million due to the cut in production. Australia’s coarse grain ending stocks are reduced 0.4 million tons this month, with reductions for barley and sorghum. Saudi Arabia’s coarse grain ending stock prospects are down 0.3 million tons with a decline for barley more than offsetting a small increase for corn. Ending stocks for corn in Kenya are down 0.2 million tons due to reduced imports. There are also small reductions this month for barley in China, corn in Moldova, and coarse grains in India, where a reduction for corn is almost offset by increases for millet, sorghum, and barley.

World Corn Trade Boosted Slightly, US Export Prospects Unchanged
Global corn trade for 2010/11 is forecast up 0.8 million tons this month to 92.1 million. Imports for Mexico are up 1.1 million tons to 9.0 million due to the production shortfall. EU imports are boosted 1.0 million tons to 6.5 million as import licenses are large and domestic prices encourage imports. Saudi Arabia’s corn import prospects are increased 0.1 million tons to 1.9 million, reflecting higher imports and feed use revealed by the latest estimates for 2009/10. However, corn imports for Russia are cut 0.5 million tons to 0.5 million as grain prices in Russia have not been high enough to encourage imports and no significant corn imports have occurred yet. Kenya’s corn imports are trimmed 0.25 million tons due to sufficient domestic supplies and lower estimated 2009/10 corn imports than previously forecast.

Brazil’s 2010/11 October-September corn exports are increased 1.0 million tons to a record 10.0 million. The shipment pace from October 2010 to February 2011 has been very rapid, at about 7.5 million tons, but is expected to slow dramatically as port capacity is switched to exporting soybeans, a more valuable crop. The availability or lack of government transport subsidies to move corn from the interior to the coast tends to accentuate the “lumpiness” of Brazilian corn exports.

Mexico, with reduced corn production, is expected to export 0.2 million tons less corn, leaving projected 2010/11 exports at only 0.1 million. Kenya’s corn exports are also reduced slightly.

US corn exports for 2010/11 are unchanged this month at 50.0 million tons (1.95 billion bushels for the September-August local marketing year). The forecast is nearly the same as the 49.9 million tons shipped the previous year. Census data for October-January indicate shipments of 14.0 million tons, virtually the same as a year earlier. However, grain inspections for February were 0.5 million tons less than those reported a year ago. The recent slow shipment pace is expected to increase as outstanding sales as of March 3, 2011, reached 12.8 million tons, up 2.3 million from a year earlier and the third highest for early March in the last 20 years.

World barley trade projected for 2010/11 is reduced 1.1 million tons this month to 16.0 million. Saudi Arabia’s barley imports are cut 0.6 million tons to 6.7 million on the slow pace of purchases and the Government’s goal of reducing subsidies.


Imports by Russia and China are also reduced due to the slower-than-expected pace of purchases. The slow pace of sales and shipments supports a reduction in barley exports of 0.8 million tons for Ukraine, and 0.3 million for the EU. US barley exports are reduced for the local June-May marketing year but unchanged for the October-September trade year.

Global sorghum trade for 2010/11 is increased slightly with 0.2-million-ton increases for Australia’s exports and EU imports. US sorghum export prospects are unchanged this month at 3.8 million tons. The pace of exports for the first 5 months of the trade year has been sluggish, but at the beginning of March 2011, outstanding export sales are up 21 per cent from a year ago.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Pork Commentary: Market Goes on Wild Ride
CANADA - This week's North American Pork Commentary from Jim Long.


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
Last week all commodities were on a wild ride – way down – then way up as the world looked at the implications of the earthquake in Japan. On the week Friday to Friday CME June hogs ended up but just barely.

Our Observations
We understood that US packers were seeing no slow down in the pork exports for Japan. Japan is the largest dollar value buyer of US pork.
USDA pork cut outs at the end of last week were over lean hog price. 92 cents a pound a strong 10 cent spread. We believe with the USDA pork cut outs seeing no weakness as another indicator that Japan’s pork demand has not waned.
Our understanding is that Japan’s Swine Industry is spread relatively evenly through their country. Where they are hardest hit reportedly has about 10 per cent of Japan’s hog industry. We believe Japan’s swine industry will have lower production in the short term while logistics caused by the crisis will lower pork consumption about a similar amount.
Summary
Our cowboy calculation tells us lower production will be cancelled by lower consumption. Net effect for North America – prices neutral in the end.

The tragedy in Japan lead to thoughtfulness on the part of the National Pork Board, National Pork Producers and the US Meat Export Federation to make a donation of $100,000 to ship pork products to feed earthquake victims in Japan.

“Our hearts go out to the Japanese people who have suffered from this terrible natural disaster,” said Conley Nelson, a pork producer representing the National Pork Board.

Our own experience in travels to 20 plus countries is that the World’s Pork Producers have much the same values and decency. The donation to Japanese earthquake victims is a further affirmation of our belief.

In our opinion the Foot and Mouth disease break in South Korea will be a much larger factor in North American markets over the next several months. 300,000 plus sows and three million pigs have been eliminated in South Korea. That is 5 million hogs per year and we can’t see how this production can get replaced within South Korea in less than two years. North America with 50 per cent of Global Pork Exports will be the primary supplier of this pork. This coming week we will be visiting South Korean Swine Producers and give some more observations next week. The South Korean Swine Genetic Industry has been devastated; Genesus is the largest supplier of high health registered purebred swine genetics to South Korea. It appears multiple flights of Genesus Genetics are Korea bound in the coming months.

Other Observations
The US retail price of pork averaged $3.28 per pound in February up 13 per cent from last year. Higher despite 1 per cent more pork available. A strong indicator of demand. In February packers and retailers made good money, while producers mostly sucked air. We expect that US weekly hog marketing’s could drop 150,000 a week from 2,150 million ranges to 2 million in the next 6 weeks. When that happens we have supercharged hog price increases of $40 per head. It will be the producer’s turn to have some extra cash!

Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics 

Wednesday, March 23, 2011
US Swine Economics Report
US - On 25 March, USDA will release the results of their latest survey of the US swine inventory, writes Ron Plain in his Swine Economics Report.
 
Ron Plain
My estimates are that the breeding herd is 0.3 per cent smaller than a year ago; the market hog inventory is 0.2 per cent larger; and the total herd is 0.2 per cent larger than in March 2010. My estimates of the 1 March market hog inventory by weight groups are: 180 pounds and heavier 99.3 per cent, 120-179 pounds 99.6 per cent, 50-119 pounds 100.7 per cent, and under 50 pounds 100.8 per cent of a year earlier.

Daily slaughter of barrows and gilts was up 0.7 per cent during December-February. Imports of Canadian barrows and gilts for immediate slaughter was little changed from a year earlier, so slaughter of U.S. raised barrows and gilts also was up 0.7 per cent during December-February. USDA's December report implied winter slaughter would be down 0.4 per cent. Look for USDA to revise upward slightly the December market hog inventory and their estimate of both sows farrowed and pig crop during last summer (June-August).

In their last inventory report, USDA predicted that December-February farrowings would be 0.6 per cent smaller than a year ago and March-May farrowings would be 2.3 per cent lower than a year earlier. I agree that winter farrowings were down 0.6 per cent. I am forecasting spring farrowings to be down 2.0 per cent and summer farrowings to be unchanged compared to June-August 2010.

December-February sow slaughter was down 3.8 per cent. Imports of Canadian sows for slaughter during this period were down nearly 25 per cent. Thus, net slaughter of U.S. sows was up 0.9 per cent out of a sow herd that was 1.2 per cent smaller compared to 12 months earlier.

I believe pigs per litter were up 1.4 per cent this winter. My estimate is the December-February pig crop was 100.8 per cent of a year earlier. Feeder pig imports during December-February were 0.9 per cent or so below last fall's level, so the light weight inventory should be up a bit less than the pig crop.

My estimate of hogs in the 50-179 weight groups implies that daily hog slaughter during the second quarter will be roughly 0.2 per cent above year-ago levels, if the inflow of slaughter hogs from Canada continues close to year-earlier levels. I expect daily hog slaughter during the third quarter of 2011 to be 0.8 per cent higher than the number slaughtered in July-September 2010. I expect live hog prices to average close to $67/cwt ($89/cwt carcass) in the second quarter of 2011 and $66/cwt ($88/cwt carcass) in the third quarter. The futures market is much more optimistic.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Global Wheat Production to Increase in 2011
GLOBAL - FAO's first forecast for world wheat production in 2011 stands at 676 million tonnes, representing a growth of 3.4 percent from 2010, the March 2011 edition of the Crop Prospects and Food Situation report said today.
 

This level would still be below the bumper harvests in 2008 and 2009.

Wheat plantings in many countries have increased or are expected to increase this year in response to strong prices, while yield recoveries are forecast in areas that were affected by drought in 2010, the Russian Federation in particular, the report specified.

As the bulk of the world's coarse grains and paddy crops are yet to be planted, it is, however, too early to forecast total cereal production for this year.

Food deficit countries importing less, paying more
Looking back to last year's production, the FAO report notes that in the low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDCs) as a group, the 2010 cereal output rose by 5.6 percent, a development that will result in reduced cereal imports in the 2010/11marketing years.

But this will not necessarily spell much relief for these countries as their overall cereal import bill is estimated to increase by 20 percent because of higher international prices.

Africa - a mixed picture
Prospects for the 2011 May-June harvests of winter wheat and coarse grains in North Africa are generally favourable, except in Tunisia where dry conditions in January dampened hopes for a robust wheat production recovery. The current situation in North Africa has resulted in the displacement of large numbers of people and disruption to the flow of goods and services in this heavily cereal-import dependent region.

In Southern Africa, the outlook for the main 2011 maize crop is favourable and relatively low prices have helped stabilize food security. A record crop of maize is forecast in Malawi and Zambia. However, in South Africa, the largest producer in the subregion, a sharp drop in production is forecast from last year due to reduced plantings in response to high level of stocks and low prices for maize at planting time.

In Eastern Africa, despite bumper harvests in 2010 and generally low prices, food insecurity has increased in the drought-stricken pastoral areas. In Western Africa, post-election violence in Cote d'Ivoire continued to damage general economic conditions in the subregion and, in particular, trade.

Asia and South America
In Asia, good 2011 wheat harvests are forecast in India and Pakistan. In China, the drought situation in the North Plain has been eased by recent precipitation but the outlook for the wheat crop still remains uncertain.

In the Asia CIS subregion, where Kazakhstan is the major producer, the bulk of the crop is yet to be sown but in view of current strong prices plantings are expected to be in line with the relatively high level of the past two years. Assuming a recovery in yields after last year's drought-reduced level, a significant increase in production could be achieved.

In South America, however, where the season is well advanced, prospects for the 2011 maize crop are unfavourable in Argentina and Uruguay due to persistent dry weather linked to the La Niña weather event. In Brazil, by contrast, the outlook is positive after good rainfall since planting improved soil moisture conditions for developing crops.

Food assistance required in 29 countries
The need for food assistance, nevertheless, persists in many areas, the bulletin reported, with 29 countries currently requiring external assistance for food. Of these, 21 countries are in Africa and seven in Asia, including the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The displacement of large numbers of people in North Africa because of recent political events in that region also has made emergency assistance necessary.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Pig Farmers Using Garbage as Feed
CHINA - They live next to a mountain of free pig food and never have to worry about the rocketing CPI, which may be making other pig farmers feel the pinch. They just get free or almost free food for their herd of thousands.


They live by garbage landfills, which are the source of food for their pigs.

Dozens of farming families, living around the garbage landfills in Shuige village in Nanjing's Jiangning district, East China's Jiangsu province, have been making their living by raising pigs with garbage collected from the landfills, according to a report by Xinhua News Agency on Wednesday.

The farmers collect leftovers from the landfills and mix them with some pig feed. About 90 families in the village raise an estimated 8,000 to 10,000 pigs each year.

"We can collect hundreds of kilograms (of the leftovers) every day. Only two families in our village feed their pigs with restaurant leftovers, and the others just collect pig food from the garbage landfills," said a woman whose family raises dozens of the animal each year.

Wang Caifu, whose family is currently raising 22 pigs, said he earned 30,000 yuan ($4,600) last year by selling pigs, and the number of animals his family raised was the lowest in the village.

"Collecting garbage to feed pigs costs nothing. There is no better job than raising pigs here," said Mr Wang.

A man who came to the village to work as a pig farmer from Lianyungang, also in Jiangsu, said he can earn about 500 yuan by selling each pig fed with garbage. But according to industry insiders, one pig fed entirely with feed can bring only about 100 yuan in profit in 2010.

"Garbage brings a lot of germs and may also contain heavy metal and pesticide remains," said Liu Tiezheng, a researcher with Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, adding that the meat safety of those pigs can hardly be guaranteed.

Wang Dajin, an official with Nanjing city management bureau, said they considered banning local pig farmers from collecting garbage at the landfills to feed pigs - which is technically illegal - but abandoned that plan after farmers blocked roads several times in protest.

Chen Lixia, from Jiangning's forestry bureau, said they have asked the pig farmers around the garbage landfills to promise not to feed the animals with garbage, but whether they kept that promise was hard to say.

Doc
will give it a try but only time will tell if this cross has any value.Due to the fact,we do not have any purebred saanen does to work with,forces us to try cross saanens.In truth,no matter if purebred or cross,does would have to have milkability and lactation periods first in order to have success.The only real farm that could try this cross on any scale would be Alaminos and they would have to decide if this cross would have any benefit for their operation.It is an interesting cross and would have value in the RP since there are numbers of boer bucks to work with but as for the purebred saanens,depends on how many farms have them.For us we will try crossbred does of the saanen and see if the same can be produced.The boer because it is a meat breed has  higher butter fat and protein while the saanen has the milk volume and lactation curve.Smaller goat farms have more management issues with trying to produce different breeds for the different markets and having goats of different sizes.One breed of uniform size has less problems to deal with.

I am sure in years to come there will be different types of breeds from different farms and someone,somewhere will breed something of real value for the rural farmers in the countryside.Makes more of an economic sense if a dual breed could be developed for the countryside.

Due to the fact there is aleady a agri program in the country named RED and in the beginning we were calling ours Elite Redline,the two names sound very close to each other and might confuse some in the country.We will rename ours the RP Genemaxer.We will copy a  part of a breeding plan that a lady named Nancy from Hutchinson,Kansas USA has been using with great success.Nancy has been crossing purebred boer bucks with purebreed saanen does to produce a crossbreed that has value for both meat/dairy.In our case we will use crossbred does (snubian does) to bred with boer bucks to produce this new dual purpose breed.With smaller producers sometimes it is much easier to manage one breed over many breeds.At times one has to balance what and which breed or breeds will produce the best value for your operation.Smaller producers do not have the larger numbers to work with and management can be stretched to ones limits.There is already sizeable numbers of boers in the country and with the new dairy breeds this will open the door for many people to experiment with.This allows any producer to try and play around with producing a new breed either dual or only meat or only dairy.