WorldWatch:

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, February 24, 2012
Bill Gates Donates $51 Million to Combat Disease
GLOBAL - Edinburgh-based charity the Global Alliance for Livestock Veterinary Medicines (GALVmed) is to receive funding of over £31.2million ($51.5million) from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID).


GALVmed's Interim CEO, Professor Peter Wells commented: "We are delighted that this funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and DFID will enable the GALVmed alliance to work with partners to scale-up access to livestock vaccines, medicines and diagnostics for resource-poor people.

"Across the developing world, livestock are an essential means of funding the most basic needs including food, education and healthcare. We are working to protect livestock and save human lives and livelihoods by making livestock vaccines, diagnostics and medicines accessible and affordable to the millions in developing countries for whom livestock is a lifeline. This announcement will take us much further in achieving our goal."

The funding announcement was made by Mr Bill Gates at the 35th session of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)'s Governing Council in Rome, Italy.

"If you care about the poorest, you care about agriculture," said Bill Gates, co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. "Investments in agriculture are the best weapons against hunger and poverty, and they have made life better for billions of people. The international agriculture community needs to be more innovative, coordinated and focused to really be effective in helping poor farmers grow more. If we can do that, we can dramatically reduce suffering, and build self-sufficiency."

International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell MP said, "For millions of people across the developing world, the wellbeing of their livestock is quite simply a matter of life and death. To a poor farmer, their livestock may be the equivalent of the local supermarket, weekly pay cheque, emergency savings account and medical insurance all rolled in to one. For many, the death of a single animal can be devastating, while to lose an entire herd is to lose everything.

Livestock provides a critical path for millions in the developing world to escape absolute poverty. For nearly 700 million of the world's poorest people survival and prosperity are almost entirely dependent on the health of their livestock.

Smallholder farmers in the developing world lose at least 25 per cent of their livestock every year to disease that could have been controlled through vaccines and medicines. Access to affordable and genuine animal health medicines has been limited for more than 40 years and poor livestock keepers have limited access to vaccines, diagnostics and medicines because they are often expensive and difficult to access and administer.

This funding allowed GALVmed to undertake its first major project, Protecting Livestock Saving Human Life 1 (PLSHL1). This project focused on the following main diseases:

East Coast fever: An African ruminant disease, with estimated costs of US$186 million a year.
Rift Valley Fever: A disease confirmed in 19 countries across Africa, with Kenya's last outbreak costing an estimated £32million and 350 human deaths.
Newcastle Disease: A world-wide, contagious viral disease affecting chickens. There are an estimated 1.38 billion chickens in Africa, and approx 70 per cent are in villages, many at risk from Newcastle disease.
Porcine Cysticercosis: A disease spread from pigs to humans which causes up to 50,000 deaths a year across Africa, India and China
The planned work focuses on facilitating access to much needed animal health products through:

Removing barriers in vaccine registration through consolidating facilitation of the vaccine regulatory framework.
Providing availability and access to quality animal health medicines, vaccines, and diagnostic tools relating to specific livestock diseases.
Increasing capability and capacity to deliver and access animal health tools and services to rural areas through gaining a better understanding of the markets to help incorporate poor livestock keepers into the mainstream veterinary product supply chain, and through developing the producing the vaccines, medicines and diagnostics needed.
Inspiring sustained public and private financial commitments to create a better environment for investment for product development and delivery.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Sustainable Intensification to Meet Growing Demand
ANALYSIS - Growth in the global population of 35 per cent by 2050, with 70 per cent of this population living in urban areas will produce greater and greater demand for food, writes Chris Harris.

However, this increase in food production has to be confronted in the face of climate change while at the same time reducing the carbon cost of farming without taking more land.

This will mean that food production will need the same area of land to be farmed, while increasing yields and consequently an intensification of production.

The concept of sustainable intensification - growing or even maintaining production while minimising inputs and enhancing ecosystem services - was addressed on both sides of the Atlantic last week.





Prof Tim Benton at the NFU conferenceIn the UK, during the National Farmers' Union annual conference, Prof Tim Benton, professor of ecology at the University of Leeds and UK Champion of Global Food Security said that a cost benefit analysis highlight that the environmental costs of all nitrogen losses in Europe (estimated at between €70 and €320 billion a year), outweighs the direct economic benefits of nitrogen in agriculture.

He said that the goods people rely upon come from an arrangement of service.

"Production of crops is underpinned by a whole range of services," Prof Benton said.

He said that management of ecology is important to agricultural production and conservation of water, climate change and carbon storage are all important to society.

"We have to think more in the round - about the environmental aspects of sustainable intensification."

He said that the message for sustainable intensification is doing more with less - managing soils for production, managing their fertility and controlling erosion and soil health.

Doing more with less also includes managing non-cropped areas for beneficial organisms, reducing wasteful inputs through innovation and recycling and genetic improvements.

However, he added that genetic improvements do not necessarily mean genetic modification, but the development of plants and animals using standard genetic techniques.

He said that sustainable agriculture is more than field management, it is a property of the whole systems.

Prof Benton added that looking at extensive or organic systems may not be the sole solution to sustainability and it might not be just looking at food miles. Balancing carbon footprints is part of the solution, as importing product grown in tropical regions could has a smaller footprint compared to growing crops in heated greenhouses.





Neil ConklinAt the same time in the US, Neil Conklin the president of Farm Foundation told the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum that scientific advances have the potential to bring forward technologies that boost productivity and take into account both resources scarcities and environmental problems.

He said the vision for sustainable intensification included the two scenarios of large farms driven by technology connected to consumers through global supply chains and small sustainable farms connected to consumers through local food networks.

He said that a truly sustainable agriculture will need to meet growing demand while incorporating the external environmental and social costs of agricultural production.

He said that changes in behaviour and productivity are going to be required.

Increases in agricultural output - the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) - can come either from growth in resource use (natural land and water) or from increases in yield, he said.

He said this can be achieved through intensification of inputs or the result of technological change and institutional innovations.

"Viewed strictly from a productivity point of view it doesn't matter whether increased TFP results from agro-ecological methods or improved varieties that result from biotechnology," he said.

"The environmental and social effects of new technologies must still be evaluated in the context of the imperatives for increasing productivity."

He added: "Clearly limiting agriculture's impact on the environment means limiting our reliance on increased area and increases in the intensity of input use.

"While reduction in waste and changes in our food tastes and preferences will help to meet the challenges of a growing world, we will be heavily reliant on increases in productivity.

"Science is at the heart of increased productivity and we can ill afford to reject out of hand the tools that it has to offer.

"However, that does nor absolve us from the responsibility to evaluate not only the benefits of increased productivity resulting from technological innovation but also the social and environmental consequences, both positive and negative.

"Even more importantly many of today's innovations, whether they are coming from agro-ecology or from modern biotechnology are heavily dependent on management skills and ever higher levels of human capital."


Chris Harris, Editor-in-Chief

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Monday, March 05, 2012
Chinese Olympians Banned from Eating Meat
CHINA - Chinese athletes preparing for the London Olympics have been banned from eating meat over fears they may consume clenbuterol - the prohibited performance-enhancing substance that led to Chinese Olympic judo champion Tong Wen's two-year ban.


The meat ban forbidding national team athletes from eating meat products when dining out was issued by China's General Administration of Sport in an urgent notice recently due to fears that banned clenbuterol substances in meat would cause athletes to fail the drug tests in the run-up to the 2012 London Games.

Huang Wenyi, a gold medal winner at the 2010 Guangzhou Asian Games and currently training for the 2012 London Olympics, revealed on her Sina Weibo that clenbuterol, or "lean meat power," which is administered to livestock to bulk them up and produce leaner meat, was even found in pork products raised and prepared exclusively for athletes.

"The Administration issued an urgent order banning athletes from eating pork, beef or lamb outside. When dining out, we are only allowed to eat fish and chicken," Ms Wenyi said. "Is there any food safe to eat in China?" she added. But Ms Wenyi later deleted the post.

The move to guarantee Chinese Olympians are free from performance-enhancing drugs has been strictly carried out as another Olympian revealed that anyone violating the ban would be expelled from the national team.

"Now the only place that we could eat safely turns out to be our cafeteria." Lu Yong, Beijing Olympics men's 85kg weightlifting champion twitted on his Sina Weibo. "It's a disaster for athletes as the prohibited substance in over 52 per cent of the meat products in Beijing has exceeded the drug test standard."

Top athletes brought down by eating meat containing clenbuterol
Alberto Contador, cycling

Earlier this week, three-time Tour de France champion Alberto Contador was banned from competing for two years from professional cycling and stripped of his 2010 title after testing positive for clenbuterol.

The Court of Arbitration for Sport rejected his claim that the positive result was caused by eating contaminated meat during a 2010 Tour rest day rather than taking clenbuterol as a performance-enhancing drug.

Tong Wen, judo

China's Olympic judo champion Tong Wen was banned for two years by the International Judo Federation on 10 May 2010 and was required to give back her gold medal from the World Championships of 2009.

Mr Wen blamed pork chops for the positive clenbuterol test and subsequently contested the ban and took her case to the Court of Arbitration for Sport who ruled that a doping violation could not be proved and found in her favor ordering that she be reinstated immediately with all rights. She returned to international competition in May 2011 winning gold at the Moscow Grand Slam.

Jessica Hardy, swimming

American swimmer Jessica Hardy tested positive at the US trials in July 2008. She served a one-year suspension, having claimed she unknowingly took the drug in a contaminated food supplement.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Wednesday, March 07, 2012
2012 Prospects Look Strong
AUSTRALIA - The National Farmers' Federation (NFF) has welcomed the release of the ABARES forecast for the country's agricultural commodities showing the agricultural sector will continue to grow over the short and medium term.


Despite floods continuing to ravage south eastern Australia, causing what is expected to be millions of dollars damage to crops, infrastructure and stock in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria, the NFF has welcomed the release of the ABARES forecast for Australia's agricultural commodities, which shows that the agricultural sector will continue to grow over the short and medium term.

NFF President, Jock Laurie, said the ABARES report, which shows that for the first time in three decades, agricultural profits are expected to rise across all Australian states and territories in 2012, supports the NFF prediction that 2012 will be a good year to be an Australian farmer.

“2012 is proving to be a very positive year. The ABARES report shows that for the first time in 30 years, farm business profit and the rate of return will be positive for all states and for all of the broadacre industries, including cropping and livestock,” Mr Laurie said.

“This is a very positive picture for Australian farmers, compared to the drought conditions we have faced over the previous decade.

“Obviously, many farmers and rural communities across eastern Australia are currently facing flood conditions, which have already caused millions, if not billions, of dollars damage to crops, livestock and vital infrastructure like roads, railways and fences.

“This is a very difficult time for affected farmers – and we can only hope that in the long-term, these floods will return moisture to the soil and help set up those farmers for good future seasons. After all, farmers are very resilient,” Mr Laurie said.

The ABARES report follows the release of the NFF Farm Facts for 2012 last week, which showed that farm export earnings for 2010-11 equalled $32.5 billion. The ABARES report predicts that farm export earnings will rise by 9.4 percent in this financial year to $35.5 billion.

“Australian agriculture continues to be a solid performer and makes important contributions to Australia’s society, economy and environment,” Mr Laurie said.

“After a very challenging period, these predictions show that the agricultural sector and our farmers are back on their feet. The focus now must be on planning ahead, ensuring a strong and sustainable future for the agricultural sector, and the NFF’s Blueprint for Australian Agriculture will play a vital role in this,” Mr Laurie said.

The NFF’s General Manager, Policy, Charlie McElhone will speak on the future of Australian farming at ABARES Outlook Conference in Canberra tomorrow, while Mr Laurie will host a Blueprint for Australian Agriculture forum in Toowoomba.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, March 09, 2012
Animal Feed Production Down 3.2% in January 2012
UK - In January 2012 the total GB retail production of animal feed was down 3.2 per cent compared with January 2011, according to the latest GB Animal Feed Statistics report for January 2012.
 

In January 2012 the total GB raw material usage in the retail production of animal feed was down 2.8 per cent compared with January 2011.

The total GB integrated feed production was also down 17.5 per cent compared with January 2011.

For the period October to December 2011 quarterly average prices of animal feedingstuffs were as follows:

Cattle and calf feed - £222 per Tonne
Pig feed - £247 per Tonne
Poultry feed - £257 per Tonne
Sheep feed - £215 per Tonne

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, March 09, 2012
Over–Regulation – Is it Limiting Food Production?
ANALYSIS – Cutting red-tape and reducing regulatory burdens are common themes that producers are eager to see put into practice. However, in reality, the industry in the majority of cases is seeing itself tied down more and more by the law, writes editor, Charlotte Johnston.

This week, a report has emerged that suggests that over-regulation is a threat to US livestock production.

Laws and regulations imposed by federal, state and local governments can make domestic farmers and ranchers uncompetitive with competitors overseas and drive them out of business, says the report prepared for the United Soybean Board.

"Just as manufacturing and service jobs have been ‘offshored’ to Mexico, China, South Korea, India and other countries, excessive regulation could eventually cause animal agriculture to move offshore. This could lead to higher consumer prices," according to the report.

The five regulatory areas most likely to generate increased costs for US producers in the near term are animal housing, environmental regulations, the use of antimicrobials and other drugs, livestock trading and labour regulations.

The European Commission is looking to drive forward an integrated approach to animal welfare. Objectives of a new animal welfare strategy include enhancing consumer empowerment and strengthening the enforcement of existing rules.

The idea of such a strategy comes from the belief that consumers are increasingly factoring in welfare considerations into their purchases. EU Health and Consumer Policy Commissioner, John Dalli, said that giving consumers access to the right information so that they can make informed choices will help drive animal welfare policies forward.

However, farming group, Copa–Cogeca, warned against this strategy which it said would increase costs of production for producers.

Copa–Cogeca Secretary-General, Pekka Pesonen, said: "It is essential for farmers to be able to recover their additional costs from the market. EU farmers knowledge and efforts to ensure a high level of animal welfare must be recognised."

Also in the EU, European farmers' organisations have said that the proposals for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) fail to grasp any opportunity and will in fact undermine the ability of EU farmers to be competitive, efficient and achieve sustainable growth.


Charlotte Johnston, Editor

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, March 09, 2012
Organic Sales Bucking the Trend
ANALYSIS - Despite the tough economic times, the organic market around the world is growing and going against the trend of generally falling sales, cuts and reduced expenditure, writes Chris Harris.

The latest figures issued by the Soil Association in the UK and Organic Monitor show that in 2010 sales of organic products rose by eight per cent and by 228 per cent since 2000.

Worldwide sales were valued at $59 billion or around €44.5 billion in 2010 and were showing strong growth in all the major European markets as well as the US.

The total amount of land around the world devoted to organic farming is 37 million hectares.

In Europe, organics hold about two per cent market share with Germany and France leading the way. However, despite the value of $28 billion, around €22 billion, the growth rates are slowing, whereas the US that has an organic market worth $29 billion and about three per cent market share is seeing healthy growth and rising prices.

The Soil Association says the market for this current year for both Europe and the US is positive.

Away from the main markets, China has seen its organic sector quadruple in size over the last five years and Organics Brasil is showing a 40 per cent growth rate in the Brazilian market.

The Soil Association says that organic sales in Asia are expected to grow by 20 per cent over the next three years.

With Europe and the US making up more than 90 per cent of the organic market around the world, the recent equivalency agreement between the two blocs is expected to boots sales on both sides of the Atlantic.

The trade arrangement recognises the integrity of organic systems in both regions. It allows organic products meeting USDA NOP standards to be marketed and labelled as organic in EU countries, while EU certified organic products are also recognised as organic in the US. The USDA Organic seal and EU Organic logo can be placed on these products, although labelling requirements in the destination country must be met.

By opening up the two largest markets for organic products to each other, the arrangement will facilitate trade of organic foods between the US and EU.

As trade between Europe and the US represents less than five per cent of the global organic food sales.

Although the largest consumers, Europe and North America are also not the main producers of organic crops. The two regions have just 30 per cent share of international organic farmland. Organic farming is practiced in 160 countries, with most production in Asia, Latin America and Africa and sent to the US and Europe.

The Soil Association Organic Market Report for 2012 shows that the UK market for organic produce is going against the global rising trend as the market fell by 3.7 per cent last year, largely because of the economic situation that has seen a five per cent drop in retail sales.

Because of the drop in sales retailers are also giving up less shelf space to organic products and there has been a lack of investment in own-label organic ranges.

The main cause of the market's overall decline was a five per cent drop in multiple retail sales, which account for 71.4 per cent of organic food sales.

Despite the tough environment, sales of organic lamb rose by 16 per cent and organic poultry by 5.8 per cent.

Dairy products and fresh fruit and vegetables continue to be the most popular organic categories accounting for 29 per cent and 23 per cent of sales respectively.

However, the amount of land being devoted to organic production fell by 2.8 per cent representing 4.2 per cent of the farmland in the UK.


Chris Harris, Editor-in-Chief

[Mustang Sally Farm]

09 March 2012
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates - March 2012
Released this week and approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board, projected US red meat and poultry production is raised. Milk production is rasied and egg projections are lowered slightly. Projected US wheat stocks are lower and corn production is unchanged.


 
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2012 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher broiler and turkey production is expected to more than offset lower forecast beef production. The pork production forecast is unchanged. The broiler production forecast is raised for the first half of the year based on January production data and stronger forecast prices. Beef production is lowered from last month. Steer and heifer slaughter is forecast lower, but is partly offset by higher expected cow slaughter. Early year carcass weights are raised due to mild weather in much of the country.

Turkey production is forecast higher as higher prices are expected to encourage a more rapid expansion. Egg production is lowered slightly for 2012 as prices are forecast lower. Poultry and egg production for 2011 is adjusted to reflect revisions in production data. The beef export forecast for 2012 is unchanged but imports are raised. Pork exports are raised from last month based on the strength of December export data. The broiler export forecast is unchanged from last month. Changes in estimates for 2011 trade reflect December data.

Cattle prices for 2012 are raised from last month, reflecting tightening supplies of fed cattle. Hog price forecasts are unchanged from last month. Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised as current prices have strengthened. Egg price forecasts are reduced on lower-thanexpected early year prices.

The milk production forecast for 2012 is raised. Milk cow numbers are raised as herds are increasing more rapidly than expected. Although herds are expected to decline from 2011 in the second half of the year, the rate will be less than previously expected. Mild weather in the early part of the year is also supporting higher levels of milk production. Import and export forecasts are unchanged. Changes in 2011 estimates of supply and use reflect revised annual stocks data and December trade data.

With higher forecast 2012 milk production, prices for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey are lowered. As a result, both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are reduced from last month. The all milk price for 2012 is lowered to $17.60-$18.20 per cwt.

WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 20 million bushels lower this month as lower food use is more than offset by higher exports. Projected food use is lowered 5 million bushels reflecting the latest flour production data reported by the North American Millers’ Association. Exports are projected 25 million bushels higher based on shipments and sales to date. Projected exports of Hard Red Spring and White wheat are each raised 10 million bushels. Projected Durum exports are raised 5 million bushels. Prices received by producers for the 2011/12 marketing year are projected at $7.15 to $7.45 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are nearly unchanged with lower China and Bangladesh beginning stocks offsetting higher production for Australia. Beginning stocks are lowered 1.0 million tons for China with an increase in food, seed, and industrial use for 2010/11. Australia production for 2011/12 is raised 1.2 million tons in line with the latest official estimate by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

Global wheat trade is raised for 2011/12 with higher imports for a number of countries. The biggest increase is for Iran, up 0.8 million tons, reflecting recent purchases and expected deliveries before the end of the local April-March marketing year. Imports are raised 0.3 million tons each for Algeria, South Korea, and Uzbekistan. Smaller increases are made for Azerbaijan, Chile, Georgia, and Angola. Imports are lowered 0.2 million tons for Syria. The largest export increase is for the United States. Exports are also increased for Australia, Brazil, and Kazakhstan, each up 0.5 million tons. Smaller increases are made for Turkey and Serbia. At the projected 142.9 million tons, global exports are just 0.6 million tons short of the 2008/09 record.

Global wheat consumption for 2011/12 is raised 3.5 million tons mostly on higher food, seed, and industrial use in China and higher wheat feeding in Australia, Iran, and South Korea. Partly offsetting are reductions in EU-27 wheat feeding and food, seed, and industrial use. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 3.5 million tons lower, mostly reflecting a similar sized reduction for China. EU-27 ending stocks are projected 1.5 million tons higher, but changes in a number of other countries, including the United States, offset the EU-27 increase.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. corn, sorghum, and barley balance sheets for 2011/12 are unchanged this month. Oats imports for 2011/12 are projected 5 million bushels higher with larger expected shipments from Canada. Projected U.S. oats ending stocks are increased by the same amount. The projected ranges for the season-average corn and sorghum farm prices are both narrowed 10 cents on each end to $5.90 to $6.50 per bushel and $5.80 to $6.40 per bushel, respectively. The barley farm price range is lowered 10 cents on the top end WASDE-504-2 of the range to $5.20 to $5.50 per bushel. The oats farm price range is raised 10 cents on the bottom end of the range to $3.35 to $3.55 per bushel.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected 1.6 million tons higher with production increases for Brazil corn and India corn and millet. Partly offsetting are reductions in sorghum output for India and Argentina and corn output for South Africa and Ecuador. Brazil corn production is raised 1 million tons on higher expected area for the second crop, which is planted following soybeans. India corn and millet production are raised 0.5 million tons and 1.5 million tons, respectively, in line with the latest government crop assessments. India sorghum production is lowered 0.7 million tons mostly reflecting lower expected area as the crop faces significant competition from cotton, soybeans, and pulses. Argentina sorghum production is lowered 0.2 million tons with lower expected yields. South Africa corn production is lowered 0.5 million tons as higher reported area is more than offset by reduced yield prospects. Below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures throughout South Africa’s maize triangle adversely affected pollination and early grain fill during February. Corn production for Ecuador is lowered 0.3 million tons as excess rains lower area and yields.

Global coarse grain trade for 2011/12 is raised with increases for corn and barley. Corn imports are raised for EU-27, Ecuador, and Peru, but lowered for Malaysia. Corn exports are raised for Brazil and India. Barley imports are raised for Iran and China. Barley exports are raised for Australia. Lower sorghum exports for Argentina are offset by higher expected shipments from Australia.

Global coarse grain consumption for 2011/12 is raised 2.2 million tons mostly on higher corn feeding in EU-27 and India, and higher millet use in India. EU-27 corn feeding is raised 1.0 million tons as corn is expected to replace higher priced wheat in animal rations. India corn and millet feeding are raised a combined 1.0 million tons. Millet food use is also raised 0.6 million tons for India. Partly offsetting these increases are reductions in sorghum food use in India, barley feeding in Australia, and corn feeding in Malaysia. Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2011/12 are lowered slightly, with 0.8-million-ton reduction in projected world corn stocks.

RICE: Small changes are made to the U.S. 2011/12 rice supply and use balances. The 2011/12 all rice import forecast is raised 1.0 million cwt to 20.0 million, based largely on the pace of imports reflected in the U.S. Bureau of the Census import data through December—all in long-grain rice. The increase in rice imports is largely due to a noticeable increase in fragrant rice imported from Thailand and India. Although the all rice export forecast is unchanged at 89.0 million cwt, combined medium- and short-grain rice is increased 1.0 million cwt to 32.0 million, and conversely, the long-grain projection is lowered the same amount to 57.0 million. The rough rice export forecast is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 31.0 million, which is offset by an increase in the combined milled and brown export forecast to 58.0 million (rough equivalent basis). All rice ending stocks are projected at 40.5 million cwt, up 1.0 million from a month ago. Long-grain rice ending stocks are projected at 23.6 million cwt, up 2.0 million from last month, and combined medium- and short-grain rice stocks are forecast at 14.2 million, down 1.0 million from a month ago.

The 2011/12 long-grain season-average price is projected at $13.20 to $13.80 per cwt, down 20 cents on each end of the range from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.40 to $16.00 per cwt, up 20 cents on each end of the range. The all WASDE-504-3 rice season-average price is forecast at $13.90 to $14.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. Global rice prices from most sources have been trending down during the past month due largely to lackluster import demand and aggressive pricing by India.

USDA’s rice Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee recently reviewed foreign rice milling rates in the USDA global supply and use database for the period 2006/07 through 2011/12. The Foreign Agricultural Service staff of USDA at U.S. embassies around the world provided actual milling yields, milling practices, and milling technology in an effort to better calibrate the average milling yield for a given country. Some countries indicated significant increases in the milling yields: Burma increased from 58 percent to 64 percent, Nigeria increased 60 percent to 63 percent, and Turkey increased 60 percent to 67 percent. The average milling yields used for India and China are unchanged at 66.7 percent, and 70.0 percent, respectively. Most of the changes are small. Average milling yields were changed for about 40 countries.

Global 2011/12 rice production and consumption are up more than 2.5 million tons from a month ago, while trade and ending stocks changes are less than 0.3 million. A large portion of the changes in global production and consumption can be attributed to the changes made to global milling rates as described in the preceding paragraph. The change in Burma’s milling rate led to a 10 percent increase in forecast milled production for 2011/12–up 1.1 million tons.

India’s rice crop is raised 0.75 million tons to a record 102.75 million based on official data from the government of India. Conversely, Brazil’s crop is lowered 0.14 million tons due to the effects of drought in Rio Grande do Sul, an important rice-growing State. The increase in global consumption is due primarily to increases for Burma, Egypt, and India. The changes in global trade are small. Global 2011/12 ending stocks are raised 0.2 million tons to 100.3 million, up 2.5 million from the previous year, and the largest since 2002/03.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2011/12 are mostly unchanged this month. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged at 1.275 billion bushels as reduced supplies in South America raise prices, reducing global imports. Although soybean meal exports and domestic use are raised this month, soybean crush remains unchanged due to a higher soybean meal extraction rate. Food use of soybean oil is reduced reflecting increased imports of canola oil and palm oil. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 2.4 billion pounds, up 100 million from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2011/12 is projected at $11.40 to $12.60 per bushel, up 30 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $310 to $340 per short ton, up 20 dollars on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 50.5 to 54.5 cents per pound, unchanged from last month.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 445.7 million tons, down 6.7 million from last month. Foreign production, projected at 354.5 million, accounts for all of the change. Brazil soybean production is forecast at 68.5 million tons, down 3.5 million tons from last month due to lower projected yields resulting from hot, dry conditions in the southern states. Argentina soybean production is reduced 1.5 million tons to 46.5 million. Despite improved weather in recent weeks in much of the country, lower yields are projected due to continued warm, dry weather through February in northeastern growing areas. Paraguay soybean production is also reduced this month due to the effects of drought. With precipitation for November through February at the lowest level in over 25 years, soybean production is WASDE-504-4 projected at 5 million tons, down 1.4 million from last month and 34 percent below early season expectations. Other changes include lower rapeseed, peanut, and sunflowerseed production for India, increased cottonseed production for Brazil, and increased sunflowerseed production for Argentina.

Global oilseed trade for 2011/12 is projected at 108.4 million tons, down 2.1 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean trade. Lower soybean exports are forecast for Brazil and Paraguay. Soybean imports are reduced for China, EU-27, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. China soybean imports are reduced 0.5 million tons to 55 million. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 67.8 million tons, down 3.4 million from last month. Reduced soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina account for most of the change.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, March 09, 2012
Organic Sales Bucking the Trend
ANALYSIS - Despite the tough economic times, the organic market around the world is growing and going against the trend of generally falling sales, cuts and reduced expenditure, writes Chris Harris.

The latest figures issued by the Soil Association in the UK and Organic Monitor show that in 2010 sales of organic products rose by eight per cent and by 228 per cent since 2000.

Worldwide sales were valued at $59 billion or around €44.5 billion in 2010 and were showing strong growth in all the major European markets as well as the US.

The total amount of land around the world devoted to organic farming is 37 million hectares.

In Europe, organics hold about two per cent market share with Germany and France leading the way. However, despite the value of $28 billion, around €22 billion, the growth rates are slowing, whereas the US that has an organic market worth $29 billion and about three per cent market share is seeing healthy growth and rising prices.

The Soil Association says the market for this current year for both Europe and the US is positive.

Away from the main markets, China has seen its organic sector quadruple in size over the last five years and Organics Brasil is showing a 40 per cent growth rate in the Brazilian market.

The Soil Association says that organic sales in Asia are expected to grow by 20 per cent over the next three years.

With Europe and the US making up more than 90 per cent of the organic market around the world, the recent equivalency agreement between the two blocs is expected to boots sales on both sides of the Atlantic.

The trade arrangement recognises the integrity of organic systems in both regions. It allows organic products meeting USDA NOP standards to be marketed and labelled as organic in EU countries, while EU certified organic products are also recognised as organic in the US. The USDA Organic seal and EU Organic logo can be placed on these products, although labelling requirements in the destination country must be met.

By opening up the two largest markets for organic products to each other, the arrangement will facilitate trade of organic foods between the US and EU.

As trade between Europe and the US represents less than five per cent of the global organic food sales.

Although the largest consumers, Europe and North America are also not the main producers of organic crops. The two regions have just 30 per cent share of international organic farmland. Organic farming is practiced in 160 countries, with most production in Asia, Latin America and Africa and sent to the US and Europe.

The Soil Association Organic Market Report for 2012 shows that the UK market for organic produce is going against the global rising trend as the market fell by 3.7 per cent last year, largely because of the economic situation that has seen a five per cent drop in retail sales.

Because of the drop in sales retailers are also giving up less shelf space to organic products and there has been a lack of investment in own-label organic ranges.

The main cause of the market's overall decline was a five per cent drop in multiple retail sales, which account for 71.4 per cent of organic food sales.

Despite the tough environment, sales of organic lamb rose by 16 per cent and organic poultry by 5.8 per cent.

Dairy products and fresh fruit and vegetables continue to be the most popular organic categories accounting for 29 per cent and 23 per cent of sales respectively.

However, the amount of land being devoted to organic production fell by 2.8 per cent representing 4.2 per cent of the farmland in the UK.


Chris Harris, Editor-in-Chief

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Agriculture Issues Intensify Food Shortages
WEST AFRICA - Several countries in the Sahel region of western Africa need urgent support to prevent a full-blown food and nutrition security crisis and to protect and restore livelihoods of communities dependent on livestock and crops, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).


The agency is calling for at least $69.8 million in additional funding to provide assistance to 790,000 vulnerable farming and herding households, who have been caught in a cycle of recurring food crises.

At least 15 million people are estimated to be at risk of food insecurity in the Sahel, in part due to localised, but significant, declines in agropastoral production. This includes 5.4 million people in the Niger (35 per cent of the population), 3 million in Mali (20 per cent), around 1.7 million in Burkina Faso (10 per cent), around 3.6 million in Chad (28 per cent), 850,000 in Senegal (6 per cent), 713,500 in the Gambia (37 per cent) and 700,000 in Mauritania (22 per cent).

The looming crisis is due to a combination of factors, including drought; sharp declines in cereal production and high grain prices; a shortage of fodder for livestock; a reduction in remittances from migrant workers in several countries; environmental degradation; displacement; and chronic poverty deepened by chronic crisis.

Total 2011 cereal production in the Sahel was on average 25 per cent lower than in 2010, but as much as 50 percent lower in Chad and Mauritania. There were also localized, huge food production deficits in other countries (up to 80 per cent), according to the Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA), a forum which includes governments, donors and others involved in food security issues in West Africa.

There were also reported increases in the number of displaced persons in the region. This includes a total of 63,000 internally displaced persons in Mali who have fled conflict in the northern section of that country, and more than 60,000 Malian refugees in neighbouring countries.

“We need to act to prevent further deterioration of the food security situation and to avoid a full-scale food and nutrition crisis,” FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva said.

“Part of the solution is to improve the access of farmers and herders to local markets, encourage the use of local products, and apply risk-reduction good practices to reinforce their resilience”, said Graziano da Silva.

FAO is working with its partners to “stop jumping from crisis to crisis,” by getting life-saving and livelihood-saving cash, food, agricultural inputs and training to the people who need them most, in addition to planning longer-term interventions to protect and restore the livelihoods of farmers, agropastoralists and pastoralists, the Director-General said.

Immediately planned FAO support will include:

helping farmers with the delivery of food crops and vegetable seeds in time for the main planting season, which begins in May increases in off-season irrigated crop production;
drought-related assistance to herders, including the distribution of animal feed, use of cash vouchers to rehabilitate natural pastures and water points;
production of animal fodder; livestock destocking, and veterinary inputs;
provision of integrated nutrition practices through agriculture, livestock rearing, school gardens, and nutrition education for women with children support for reinforcement of food security-information, early-warning systems and coordination.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Ag Implications of US, European Market Volatility
ANALYSIS - If you think corn and soybeans have been volatile, you haven't seen anything yet was the opening message from Jim Wiesemeyer, senior vice president of Informa Economics, at a Commodity Classic education seminar in early March, writes Sarah Mikesell, senior editor.

"After the November 6th elections, Washington better have a leader from both the House and Senate, and definitely the White House," he said. "Because if we don't, we're going to be on a rocky road. What's happening in Europe will happen here, and that will translate into a Farm Bill. If they don't get the Farm Bill done this year, it's not going to get any better short term."

Debt, Debt and More Debt
Mr. Wiesemeyer explained there is no confidence in the US or in Europe that our leaders are getting their act together which is causing the uncertainty in the world. The US is all deficits and debt, he said noting that all debt is the annual accumulations of deficits. Both political parties have overspent, and it's getting worse, not better.

But what does all that mean to policy, including foreign policy?

"The debt is now much like war - it takes, it sucks the oxygen out of every other issue, and it's going to continue to do that," Mr. Wiesemeyer said.

Many in the US question why it's so important to watch the sovereign debt problems in Europe.

"Europe is China's biggest customer. Soybeans - about 65 per cent of US soybean exports go to China," he said. "So you have to watch China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If it were to go under 8 per cent, it would be the first solid signal that the world is going into a downturn."


US Agriculture in Golden Era
Mr. Wiesemeyer believes that US agriculture is in the throes of the Golden Era.

"I said that a few years ago, and we're still in it but the last two bull markets were dethroned," he said. "Not because of any fundamentals in agriculture, it was a result of a major financial crisis. And now what the Chinese are calling, "The Western Financial Crisis" - it could happen again."

US consumers' attitudes change when that average price for retail gasoline gets to $4.00/gallon, and Wiesemeyer expects it's going to go to $4.50/gallon this summer.

"Consumers have a behavioral change for every tick higher on $4.00 gasoline, but it won't on a farmer's bottom line on input cost," he said. "Consumers pull back which will affect the lifestyle industry - the restaurant industry - it just goes through the whole cycle."

Geopolitical Challenges & Energy
The geo-political challenges in energy in the Middle East are an area of high anxiety. One being Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel's next move. That uncertainty is expected to push oil prices higher. It could shoot up $15 to $20/barrel, probably more on Brent crude oil, he said. Farmers should watch the Brent crude oil price, because that's what is traded in the world, Mr. Wiesemeyer reminded.

The Middle East turmoil is expected to keep oil markets unsettled well into 2012. With the energy price sensitivity, Iran and Israel conflicts are potential, he said. If a conflict arose, shipping rates would rise significantly which would impact the export market.

US Infrastructure Investment Needed
His biggest concern for agribusiness right now is the lack of investment in infrastructure.

"I think the big companies - the Pioneers and Monsantos - are going to develop yields for this growing population," he said. "My biggest concern is with their structure - the lack of investment going on in our forage systems, in our lock and dams, in our throughput capacity. What we're going to need to export - our ports, huge vessels - the investments have not been made. So that's a concern I have for the future."

Mr. Wiesemeyer said that part of what has made US agriculture so competitive over the decades has been the infrastructure system - roads, river and port systems.

"The whole complex is in need of a $2 trillion expenditure. Both political parties' leaders and the President have poked around for a jobs bill, and its staring them right in the eye," he said.


Sarah Mikesell, Senior Editor

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, March 15, 2012
Dry Spell Takes Toll on Crops and Livestock
SPAIN - The Spanish grain crop outlook for 2012-13 is at a very critical situation due to the driest winter ever recorded. While April and May rainfalls usually determine the size of the crop, this year’s dry conditions might have already taken a toll on final yields on winter grains.


Similar rain patterns have occurred in previous years. However, initial soil moisture, which is critical for the development stage of the first crop, is particularly low this year.

According to the USDA report, Still no Rain in Spain, Spain’s total dam water reservoirs are at 62.5 percent of capacity, which means that there are 34,764 hm3 of dam water available. While in Andalusia dams are at good levels of storage capacity, the Ebro basin, which covers the grain growing regions of Aragon, Navarra and Catalonia, is reportedly at 59.0 of its water storage capacity.

Until mid-February, cold temperatures had kept the grain crops dormant. This helped in the prevention of drought damage.

Crops in Andalucía, Castile-La Mancha and Aragón (Graph 5) already show signs of lowered vegetation health. While the same signs apply to Castile y Leon, based on previous years’ crop behavior, the situation could still be reversed if weather conditions improve.

The weather conditions in Spain are also affecting livestock production, putting livestock at risk. Pasture land has been affected by dry conditions and less pasture availability is forcing extensive livestock farmers to increase input costs by supplementing their animals in quantities over normal levels.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Livestock Prices Up - Feed Prices Rising
ANALYSIS - EU feed wheat and corn prices are showing a slight upward trend, although they are still below last year's figures, according to the Agriview EU Market Prices for Representative Products report, writes Chris Harris.

From January to February this year, feed wheat prices rose from €180.26 per tonne to €190.69. However for the same months last year the prices were €218.38 rising to a peak of €232.06.

Over the last year the prices slid gradually to reach a low of €171.73 in November last year since when they have been on a gradual increase.

Feed corn prices slipped in August last year but have now started to show a small recovery.

In February they stood at €195.53 per tonne, but this is compared to prices in the same month last year of nearly €230.

Flour wheat prices are also down on last year by about €13, standing at €280.13 in February compared to €293.52 in the same month last year.

Feed oat, feed barley and malting barley prices are similar to last year at €188.60, €199.65 and €237.70 respectively.

In the livestock sector, beef prices have been consistently above last year's prices with the January and February prices this year reaching €381.99 and €371.79 per 100kg carcase weight compared to €348.68 and €351 for the same time last year. Dairy cow prices and veal calf prices have also remained consistently higher than last year.

In the dairy sector, intervention quality milk powder prices that reached a peak in January this year at €251.41 per 100kg fell back to €230.42, below the prices for the same month last year when they stood at €243.34.

Similar to the cattle prices, pig prices are up on last year and have remained consistently higher than the previous year's prices over the whole of the last year.

While they slipped slightly in January to €151.41 from €159.34 in December last year, they rose again in February to €157.83 per 100kg. In February last year the prices stood at €144.04.

In the poultry sector, poultry meat prices are coming back toward last year's prices having reached a high of €193.51 per 100kg in August last year.

In January and February they were €184.27 and €185.27compared to €176.44 and €179.33 for the same period a year ago.

Egg prices have soared in the latter half of 2011 and appear to be continuing to rise. Shell egg prices hit €150.72 per 100kg in February having risen from €137.49 in January. The prices in January and February 2011 were €105.93 and €111.37.

The higher prices for the livestock and poultry sector can largely be attributed to high feed prices over the last year although the rapid rise in egg prices could also be the result of the changes to the regulations and the ban on battery cages and the insistence on enriched cages for laying hens, reducing the amount of product on the market. The change in regulations has also been seen by the EU Commission poultry forecasting group as a major reason for rising egg prices.

The EU is also predicting a drop in consumption, which is also likely to have aknock on effect on egg prices. Germany, France and Hungary are predicting an increase this year, but the big egg producers in Spain, the UK, Italy and the Netherlands are forecasting decreases.

With most feed prices now under those of last year, there could be repercussions for the livestock and poultry sectors stabilising prices, but this could take some time to come through.

The full range of changes in market prices can be found at Agriview EU Market Prices.


Chris Harris, Editor-in-Chief

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, March 22, 2012
Charting a New Course for Animal Nutrition & Safety
CHINA - Over the years, the feed industry made a great contribution to safeguard the healthy development of the husbandry industry and the quality and safety of the animal products. However, occasional scandals like drug abuse, clenbuterol-contaminated pork, and pig milk adulterated with melamine are just like dark clouds hovering above the industry and the whole society.


The degradation of industry moral is directly impacting the quality of life of millions of communities and billions of women and men. Businesses, trade unions, scientists, political leaders, schools and universities, indigenous peoples, local government authorities, community groups, consumer associations, health workers and farming groups are all concerned about these grave issues. In conjunction with the ninth China Animal Husbandry Expo (CAHE) 2011, the “First National Animal Nutrition & Security Forum” organized by CAAA in Nanjing is well received. All presenters and participants in the forum are encouraged to become involved with the forum theme –"Complete honest begins with Self-discipline and Safety awareness ends in Enduring success."

Building on CAAA's successful history of bring together diverse stakeholders and providing scientific leadership in the first Animal Nutrition & Safety Forum, the second forum will bring these different sectors together to network, share knowledge and experience, develop creative solutions and partnerships and make practical and moral commitments to help take us forward on a truly sustainable path. "To find a pragmatic, sustainable solution to the Animal Nutrition and Safety" is the theme of the second forum, which will be held in Nanjing from 16 to 17 May.

What is special of the Second National Animal Nutrition and Safety Forum?
The forum in Nanjing will be a touchstone for the animal nutrition and safety movement and provides a unique opportunity to showcase how the husbandry industry underpins all economic, social and cultural development.The Animal Nutrition and Safety 2012 arrangements are announced below (please see link), please use the following event outline to plan your visit.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, March 23, 2012
Major FMD OutbreakThreatens Egypt
EGYPT - Urgent action is required to control a major outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease and prevent its spread throughout North Africa and the Middle East, which could have serious implications for food security in the region, FAO warned yesterday. With vaccines urgently needed, international and regional organizations are at the ready to assist in developing a regional prevention, preparedness and action plan.


In Egypt 40,222 cases of the disease are suspected, according to official estimates, and 4,658 animals, mostly calves, have already died.

According to FAO's livestock census data, 6.3 million buffalo and cattle and 7.5 million sheep and goats are at risk in Egypt. Although foot-and-mouth disease has circulated in the country for some years, this is an entirely new introduction of a virus strain known as SAT2, and livestock have no immune protection against it.

Urgent action
Further to a request by the Egyptian Government, an FAO emergency team was in the country last week assessing the situation with veterinary authorities. They jointly set up a first line of containment measures and the roll out of a national FMD control strategy. The strategy is focused on limiting the disease's spread by implementing biosecurity measures and by use of vaccination when available.

"We are working closely to support the government to bring the outbreak under control. The area around the Lower Nile Delta appears to be severely affected, while other areas in Upper Egypt and the west appear less so," said Juan Lubroth, FAO's Chief Veterinary Officer, calling for strong action to prevent the disease from spreading further.

In order to help prevent the spread of the virus, livestock attendants are urged to take a series of measures including: limiting animal movements and avoiding contact with animals from other farms; avoiding purchasing animals in the immediate term since they could have come from contaminated sources; and properly disposing of carcasses preferably by incineration or, failing that, by burying them.

Vaccines in short supply
Vaccines are in limited supply for the FMD virus now present in Egypt. The country has some reserves of its own vaccines, but these do not protect against the SAT2 strain, and Egypt could need regional support in mobilizing effective ones. Even if they become available quickly, vaccines sometimes take up to two weeks to confer immunity, so FAO is urging coordination at all levels of government to implement biosecurity measures to limit the spread of the disease.

Foot-and-mouth disease affects all cloven-hoofed animals, including sheep, goats, cattle, buffalo and pigs. It causes serious production losses and can be lethal, particularly to younger animals.

Meat and milk from sick animals are unsafe for consumption, not because FMD affects humans, but because foodstuffs entering the food chain should only come from animals that are known to be healthy.

The virus that causes FMD passes rapidly between animals through airborne droplets and normal contact, but humans in close contact with animals can transport it too via the soles of shoes, or on their hands or clothing. Foot-and-mouth disease is not a direct threat to humans.