WorldWatch:

[Mustang Sally Farm]

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates – June 2011
With many important crop-growing regions affected by flooding or drought, the projections are 'highly tentative', according to the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Note: Because spring planting is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for US winter wheat area, yield and production. For other US crops, methods used to project planted acreage, harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table.

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
The forecast for 2011 total meat production is raised from last month, reflecting higher beef production. Large cattle placements and larger cow slaughter, due in part to drought in the Southern Plains, is reflected in an increase in the beef production forecast. However, forecasts for pork and poultry are reduced from last month as higher forecast grain prices are expected to trim hog weight gains and put additional pressure on broiler producers. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report to be released on 24 June will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of the year. For 2012, meat production forecasts are reduced as higher forecast feed costs pressure hog weights and slow the expected recovery of the poultry sector. Higher feed prices are expected to slow feedlot placements as producers keep cattle on forage longer. The egg production forecast for 2011 is raised on stronger second half production but the forecast for 2012 is reduced on higher feed prices and less demand for hatching eggs.

Export forecasts for red meat and poultry are raised from last month. Beef exports for 2011 are forecast higher on strength in a number of markets and expected improvements in exports to Mexico. Pork, broiler, and turkey exports were larger than expected in the first quarter and the forecasts for the remainder of 2011 are raised. Beef and turkey exports are raised for 2012, but no changes are made to pork or broiler exports.

Cattle and broiler prices for 2011 are lowered from last month on weaker-than-expected demand but hog prices are unchanged. Broiler prices are lowered for 2012.

The milk production forecast for 2011 is raised. Producers are expected to continue to expand herds through the middle of the year and although herds may begin to decline toward the end of the year, cow numbers are expected to be above 2010. However, higher feed costs will impact profitability and the dairy cow inventory is expected to decline in 2012. Tighter feed supplies will also likely impact the rate of increase of milk per cow. As a result, the milk production forecast for 2012 is reduced from last month. Commercial exports are forecast higher for 2011 largely due to stronger expected cheese exports. However, imports of cheese and milk proteins have been stronger than expected and the import forecast for both 2011 and 2012 is raised.

Dairy product price forecasts are raised from last month. Butter supplies are tight and demand for cheese, non-fat dry milk (NDM) and whey are expected to support product prices. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised from last month in line with the increased product prices. The all milk price is forecast at $19.65 to $20.05 per cwt for 2011. Price forecasts for 2012 are also raised as the smaller production increase is expected to support higher product and Class prices. The all-milk price is forecast at $17.75 to $18.05 per cwt for 2012.

Wheat
US wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered this month as reduced carry-in more than offsets an increase in expected production. Beginning stocks are lowered 30 million bushels with a 10-million-bushel reduction in imports and a 20-million-bushel increase in exports for 2010/11, both based on the pace of shipments to date. All wheat production for 2011/12 is forecast at 2,058 million bushels, 15 million higher than last month. The winter wheat production forecast is raised 26 million bushels with higher forecast yields for Hard Red Winter, Soft Red Winter, and Soft White Winter wheat. Partly offsetting is a projected 11-million-bushel reduction for durum and other spring wheat production as seedings are projected 290,000 acres lower. Flooding and persistent wet soils have delayed planting in North Dakota and Montana well beyond the normal planting window.

US wheat usage for 2011/12 is unchanged. Ending stocks are projected 15 million bushels lower at 687 million bushels but remain above the 10-year average. The 2011/12 season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at a record $7.00 to $8.40 per bushel, up 20 cents on both ends of the range, reflecting both tighter domestic supplies and higher expected corn prices. The forecast 2010/11 wheat farm price is also raised this month, up five cents per bushel to $5.70 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected slightly lower this month as an increase in beginning stocks is more than offset by lower production. Global beginning stocks are projected 4.9 million tons higher mostly reflecting increased stocks in Russia as feeding is reduced 2.0 million tons and 3.0 million tons, respectively, for 2009/10 and 2010/11. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are also raised 0.5 million tons each for Argentina and Canada with the same size reductions in 2010/11 exports for each country. Partly offsetting is a 1.5-million-ton decrease for 2011/12 beginning stocks for Australia with higher 2010/11 exports.

World wheat production is projected 5.2 million tons lower for 2011/12. At 664.3 million tons, production would be the third highest on record and up 16.1 million from 2010/11. This month’s reduction for 2011/12 mostly reflects a 7.1-million-ton decrease for EU-27 wheat output. Persistent dryness, particularly in France but also in Germany, the United Kingdom and western Poland, has reduced yield prospects for EU-27. Production is also reduced 1.0 million tons for Canada as flooding and excessive rainfall, particularly in southeastern Saskatchewan and adjoining areas of Manitoba, are expected to reduce spring wheat seeding. Production is increased 1.5 million tons for Argentina and 0.5 million tons for Australia, both reflecting favourable planting conditions and strong producer price incentives to expand area. Production is also raised 0.5 million tons for Pakistan as increased use of higher quality seed and adequate water supplies resulted in higher-than-expected yields.

Global wheat trade for 2011/12 is projected slightly higher reflecting a 0.5-million-ton increase in expected imports by EU-27. Exports are lowered 3.0 million tons for EU-27. Export increases of 2.0 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively, for Australia and Argentina offset the EU-27 reduction. Exports are raised 0.3 million tons for Pakistan with the larger crop. Global wheat consumption is projected down 3.3 million tons, mostly reflecting a 2.5-million-ton reduction in EU-27 domestic use. Wheat feeding is lowered 0.5 million tons for Canada. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 3.0 million tons higher as decreased wheat feeding in earlier years raise projected stocks in Russia, more than offsetting declines in Australia and EU-27.

Coarse Grains
Projected US feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are sharply lower with reduced prospects for corn acreage. Corn planted area for 2011/12 is lowered 1.5 million acres from March intentions to 90.7 million acres. Planting delays through early June in the eastern Corn Belt and northern Plains are expected to reduce planted area, more than offsetting likely gains in the western Corn Belt and central Plains where planting was ahead of normal by mid-May. Harvested area is lowered 1.9 million acres, to 83.2 million with the additional 400,000-acre reduction reflecting early information about May flooding in the lower Ohio and Mississippi River valleys and June flooding along the Missouri River valley. Production is projected at 13.2 billion bushels, down 305 million from last month, but still a record, and up 753 million from 2010/11.

US feed grain usage changes for 2011/12 include a 100-million-bushel projected decline in corn feed and residual use and a five-million-bushel increase in sorghum exports. Feed grain ending stocks are sharply lower with expected corn ending stocks down 205 million bushels to 695 million. Corn ending stocks are projected 35 million bushels lower than beginning stocks indicating a stocks-to-use ratio of 5.2 percent compared with the 2010/11 forecast ratio of 5.4 percent. The 2011/12 season-average farm price for corn is projected at a record $6.00 to $7.00 per bushel, up 50 cents on both ends of the range. Projected farm prices are also raised for the other feed grains.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected down 7.8 million tons this month with lower beginning stocks and production. Reduced US corn production, lower EU-27 barley production and reduced corn beginning stocks in China, more than offset increases in China corn production. EU-27 barley production is lowered 2.2 million tons as prolonged dryness across western and northern Europe has sharply reduced yield prospects in the major producing countries. China corn area is raised for 2010/11 in line with the most recent official government area estimates with the year-to-year percentage increase for 2011/12 largely maintained.

China corn production increases 5.0 million and 6.0 million tons, respectively, for 2010/11 and 2011/12 with yields unchanged month-to-month. More than offsetting the higher production levels is higher estimated corn consumption for both feeding and industrial use. China corn consumption is raised 8.0 million tons and 13.0 million tons, respectively, for 2010/11 and 2011/12. Together these changes leave projected 2011/12 corn ending stocks down 12.0 million tons for China. At the projected 51.0 million tons, China’s stocks would be down 2.7 million tons from 2010/11 and just below the levels of the preceding two years, better reflecting the continuing rise in domestic corn prices as production struggles to keep pace with rising usage. Although China’s stocks represent 46 percent of the world total for 2011/12, China is not expected to be a significant exporter.

Global 2011/12 corn trade is raised slightly this month with higher imports for EU-27 and higher exports for Ukraine. Ukraine exports are raised 1.0 million tons with higher production and stronger expected demand from EU-27. Russia exports are lowered 0.5 million tons with lower production. Other important trade changes this month include a 0.2-million-ton increase in sorghum imports by Mexico, driving the US export increase, and a 1.5-million-ton reduction in EU-27 barley exports with lower production and tighter supplies. Barley imports are lowered for Saudi Arabia and China. Global corn ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected down sharply this month, falling 17.3 million tons mostly reflecting the usage revisions in China. The projected 5.2-million-ton drop in US ending stocks accounts for most of the rest of the decline. Global corn stocks are projected at 111.9 million tons, the lowest since 2006/07.

Oilseeds
This month’s US oilseed supply and use projections for 2011/12 include higher beginning and ending stocks and reduced exports. Although adverse weather has slowed soybean planting progress this year, area and production estimates are unchanged with several weeks remaining in the planting season. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower export projection for 2010/11. Soybean exports for 2010/11 are reduced 10 million bushels to 1.54 billion bushels reflecting the export pace to date for the marketing year and reduced global import demand, led mainly by lower projected imports for China. Soybean ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 180 million bushels, up 10 million. US soybean exports for 2011/12 are reduced 20 million bushels to 1.52 billion, reflecting increased competition from South America resulting from an increase in the recently harvested Brazilian soybean crop. With larger supplies and reduced exports, ending stocks for 2011/12 are increased 30 million bushels to 190 million. Other changes for 2010/11 include reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, reduced projected food use of soybean oil, and lower soybean oil exports, all resulting in increased ending stocks for 2010/11 and 2011/12.

Soybean, meal and oil prices are all raised this month. Led by higher corn prices, the US season-average soybean price for 2011/12 is projected at $13.00 to $15.00 per bushel, up $1.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices for 2011/12 are projected at $375 to $405 per short ton, up $25 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 58 to 62 cents per pound, up two cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 456.9 million tons, down 2.3 million from last month, mainly due to lower rapeseed production. EU-27 rapeseed production is reduced 1.2 million tons to 18.8 million mainly due to lower yields resulting from dry conditions in April and May in major producing areas of France and Germany. Rapeseed production for Canada is lowered 0.5 million tons to 13.0 million due to reduced area planted resulting from excessive moisture this spring. China soybean production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 14.3 million reflecting lower area as producers shifted to corn. Other changes include increased sunflower seed production for Russia and reduced cottonseed production for Australia, Pakistan and the United States. Brazil’s 2010/11 soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to a record 74.5 million, reflecting yield and production increases reported in the most recent government survey.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates – June 2011
With many important crop-growing regions affected by flooding or drought, the projections are 'highly tentative', according to the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Note: Because spring planting is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for US winter wheat area, yield and production. For other US crops, methods used to project planted acreage, harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table.

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
The forecast for 2011 total meat production is raised from last month, reflecting higher beef production. Large cattle placements and larger cow slaughter, due in part to drought in the Southern Plains, is reflected in an increase in the beef production forecast. However, forecasts for pork and poultry are reduced from last month as higher forecast grain prices are expected to trim hog weight gains and put additional pressure on broiler producers. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report to be released on 24 June will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of the year. For 2012, meat production forecasts are reduced as higher forecast feed costs pressure hog weights and slow the expected recovery of the poultry sector. Higher feed prices are expected to slow feedlot placements as producers keep cattle on forage longer. The egg production forecast for 2011 is raised on stronger second half production but the forecast for 2012 is reduced on higher feed prices and less demand for hatching eggs.

Export forecasts for red meat and poultry are raised from last month. Beef exports for 2011 are forecast higher on strength in a number of markets and expected improvements in exports to Mexico. Pork, broiler, and turkey exports were larger than expected in the first quarter and the forecasts for the remainder of 2011 are raised. Beef and turkey exports are raised for 2012, but no changes are made to pork or broiler exports.

Cattle and broiler prices for 2011 are lowered from last month on weaker-than-expected demand but hog prices are unchanged. Broiler prices are lowered for 2012.

The milk production forecast for 2011 is raised. Producers are expected to continue to expand herds through the middle of the year and although herds may begin to decline toward the end of the year, cow numbers are expected to be above 2010. However, higher feed costs will impact profitability and the dairy cow inventory is expected to decline in 2012. Tighter feed supplies will also likely impact the rate of increase of milk per cow. As a result, the milk production forecast for 2012 is reduced from last month. Commercial exports are forecast higher for 2011 largely due to stronger expected cheese exports. However, imports of cheese and milk proteins have been stronger than expected and the import forecast for both 2011 and 2012 is raised.

Dairy product price forecasts are raised from last month. Butter supplies are tight and demand for cheese, non-fat dry milk (NDM) and whey are expected to support product prices. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised from last month in line with the increased product prices. The all milk price is forecast at $19.65 to $20.05 per cwt for 2011. Price forecasts for 2012 are also raised as the smaller production increase is expected to support higher product and Class prices. The all-milk price is forecast at $17.75 to $18.05 per cwt for 2012.

Wheat
US wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered this month as reduced carry-in more than offsets an increase in expected production. Beginning stocks are lowered 30 million bushels with a 10-million-bushel reduction in imports and a 20-million-bushel increase in exports for 2010/11, both based on the pace of shipments to date. All wheat production for 2011/12 is forecast at 2,058 million bushels, 15 million higher than last month. The winter wheat production forecast is raised 26 million bushels with higher forecast yields for Hard Red Winter, Soft Red Winter, and Soft White Winter wheat. Partly offsetting is a projected 11-million-bushel reduction for durum and other spring wheat production as seedings are projected 290,000 acres lower. Flooding and persistent wet soils have delayed planting in North Dakota and Montana well beyond the normal planting window.

US wheat usage for 2011/12 is unchanged. Ending stocks are projected 15 million bushels lower at 687 million bushels but remain above the 10-year average. The 2011/12 season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at a record $7.00 to $8.40 per bushel, up 20 cents on both ends of the range, reflecting both tighter domestic supplies and higher expected corn prices. The forecast 2010/11 wheat farm price is also raised this month, up five cents per bushel to $5.70 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected slightly lower this month as an increase in beginning stocks is more than offset by lower production. Global beginning stocks are projected 4.9 million tons higher mostly reflecting increased stocks in Russia as feeding is reduced 2.0 million tons and 3.0 million tons, respectively, for 2009/10 and 2010/11. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are also raised 0.5 million tons each for Argentina and Canada with the same size reductions in 2010/11 exports for each country. Partly offsetting is a 1.5-million-ton decrease for 2011/12 beginning stocks for Australia with higher 2010/11 exports.

World wheat production is projected 5.2 million tons lower for 2011/12. At 664.3 million tons, production would be the third highest on record and up 16.1 million from 2010/11. This month’s reduction for 2011/12 mostly reflects a 7.1-million-ton decrease for EU-27 wheat output. Persistent dryness, particularly in France but also in Germany, the United Kingdom and western Poland, has reduced yield prospects for EU-27. Production is also reduced 1.0 million tons for Canada as flooding and excessive rainfall, particularly in southeastern Saskatchewan and adjoining areas of Manitoba, are expected to reduce spring wheat seeding. Production is increased 1.5 million tons for Argentina and 0.5 million tons for Australia, both reflecting favourable planting conditions and strong producer price incentives to expand area. Production is also raised 0.5 million tons for Pakistan as increased use of higher quality seed and adequate water supplies resulted in higher-than-expected yields.

Global wheat trade for 2011/12 is projected slightly higher reflecting a 0.5-million-ton increase in expected imports by EU-27. Exports are lowered 3.0 million tons for EU-27. Export increases of 2.0 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively, for Australia and Argentina offset the EU-27 reduction. Exports are raised 0.3 million tons for Pakistan with the larger crop. Global wheat consumption is projected down 3.3 million tons, mostly reflecting a 2.5-million-ton reduction in EU-27 domestic use. Wheat feeding is lowered 0.5 million tons for Canada. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 3.0 million tons higher as decreased wheat feeding in earlier years raise projected stocks in Russia, more than offsetting declines in Australia and EU-27.

Coarse Grains
Projected US feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are sharply lower with reduced prospects for corn acreage. Corn planted area for 2011/12 is lowered 1.5 million acres from March intentions to 90.7 million acres. Planting delays through early June in the eastern Corn Belt and northern Plains are expected to reduce planted area, more than offsetting likely gains in the western Corn Belt and central Plains where planting was ahead of normal by mid-May. Harvested area is lowered 1.9 million acres, to 83.2 million with the additional 400,000-acre reduction reflecting early information about May flooding in the lower Ohio and Mississippi River valleys and June flooding along the Missouri River valley. Production is projected at 13.2 billion bushels, down 305 million from last month, but still a record, and up 753 million from 2010/11.

US feed grain usage changes for 2011/12 include a 100-million-bushel projected decline in corn feed and residual use and a five-million-bushel increase in sorghum exports. Feed grain ending stocks are sharply lower with expected corn ending stocks down 205 million bushels to 695 million. Corn ending stocks are projected 35 million bushels lower than beginning stocks indicating a stocks-to-use ratio of 5.2 percent compared with the 2010/11 forecast ratio of 5.4 percent. The 2011/12 season-average farm price for corn is projected at a record $6.00 to $7.00 per bushel, up 50 cents on both ends of the range. Projected farm prices are also raised for the other feed grains.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected down 7.8 million tons this month with lower beginning stocks and production. Reduced US corn production, lower EU-27 barley production and reduced corn beginning stocks in China, more than offset increases in China corn production. EU-27 barley production is lowered 2.2 million tons as prolonged dryness across western and northern Europe has sharply reduced yield prospects in the major producing countries. China corn area is raised for 2010/11 in line with the most recent official government area estimates with the year-to-year percentage increase for 2011/12 largely maintained.

China corn production increases 5.0 million and 6.0 million tons, respectively, for 2010/11 and 2011/12 with yields unchanged month-to-month. More than offsetting the higher production levels is higher estimated corn consumption for both feeding and industrial use. China corn consumption is raised 8.0 million tons and 13.0 million tons, respectively, for 2010/11 and 2011/12. Together these changes leave projected 2011/12 corn ending stocks down 12.0 million tons for China. At the projected 51.0 million tons, China’s stocks would be down 2.7 million tons from 2010/11 and just below the levels of the preceding two years, better reflecting the continuing rise in domestic corn prices as production struggles to keep pace with rising usage. Although China’s stocks represent 46 percent of the world total for 2011/12, China is not expected to be a significant exporter.

Global 2011/12 corn trade is raised slightly this month with higher imports for EU-27 and higher exports for Ukraine. Ukraine exports are raised 1.0 million tons with higher production and stronger expected demand from EU-27. Russia exports are lowered 0.5 million tons with lower production. Other important trade changes this month include a 0.2-million-ton increase in sorghum imports by Mexico, driving the US export increase, and a 1.5-million-ton reduction in EU-27 barley exports with lower production and tighter supplies. Barley imports are lowered for Saudi Arabia and China. Global corn ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected down sharply this month, falling 17.3 million tons mostly reflecting the usage revisions in China. The projected 5.2-million-ton drop in US ending stocks accounts for most of the rest of the decline. Global corn stocks are projected at 111.9 million tons, the lowest since 2006/07.

Oilseeds
This month’s US oilseed supply and use projections for 2011/12 include higher beginning and ending stocks and reduced exports. Although adverse weather has slowed soybean planting progress this year, area and production estimates are unchanged with several weeks remaining in the planting season. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower export projection for 2010/11. Soybean exports for 2010/11 are reduced 10 million bushels to 1.54 billion bushels reflecting the export pace to date for the marketing year and reduced global import demand, led mainly by lower projected imports for China. Soybean ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 180 million bushels, up 10 million. US soybean exports for 2011/12 are reduced 20 million bushels to 1.52 billion, reflecting increased competition from South America resulting from an increase in the recently harvested Brazilian soybean crop. With larger supplies and reduced exports, ending stocks for 2011/12 are increased 30 million bushels to 190 million. Other changes for 2010/11 include reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, reduced projected food use of soybean oil, and lower soybean oil exports, all resulting in increased ending stocks for 2010/11 and 2011/12.

Soybean, meal and oil prices are all raised this month. Led by higher corn prices, the US season-average soybean price for 2011/12 is projected at $13.00 to $15.00 per bushel, up $1.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices for 2011/12 are projected at $375 to $405 per short ton, up $25 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 58 to 62 cents per pound, up two cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 456.9 million tons, down 2.3 million from last month, mainly due to lower rapeseed production. EU-27 rapeseed production is reduced 1.2 million tons to 18.8 million mainly due to lower yields resulting from dry conditions in April and May in major producing areas of France and Germany. Rapeseed production for Canada is lowered 0.5 million tons to 13.0 million due to reduced area planted resulting from excessive moisture this spring. China soybean production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 14.3 million reflecting lower area as producers shifted to corn. Other changes include increased sunflower seed production for Russia and reduced cottonseed production for Australia, Pakistan and the United States. Brazil’s 2010/11 soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to a record 74.5 million, reflecting yield and production increases reported in the most recent government survey.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Meat Can be Produced Without Animals

If we are to produce sustainable and healthy food for the global population of nine billion people that is projected in 2050, then we must think along completely new lines.
 


Imagine this: With a clear conscience you sink your teeth into a juicy and tasty hamburger. No animal has been slaughtered to deliver the meat, no new forest felled to make way for animal feed, no bovine methane burps have affected the climate and no slurry has been released into the environment. The hamburger also has a satisfyingly low fat content and the fat consists only of fatty acids that are good for you.

Does this sound like something from Utopia’s kitchen? It does not need to be the case, according to senior scientist Niels Oksbjerg from the Department of Food Science at Aarhus University. He and his colleagues have the expertise to create muscle (meat) cells in the laboratory and are itching to develop the technique to make it possible to produce meat with the ultimate sustainability for the world’s growing population.

- If you have one embryonic stem cell from, for example, a calf, then you can produce an infinite number of new cells. Theoretically, you can produce meat for the whole world from one stem cell, says Niels Oksbjerg.


From research to red meat
 
Theory is one thing while practice is another. Before farming moves into the laboratory a lot of research and development must be carried out – but the senior scientist is not starting from scratch.

- For years we have grown muscle cells in the laboratory to be used as a model for muscle in various studies so we know that it is possible to get them to grow. One of the challenges lies in getting the cells to grow in more than one cell layer so we can produce a three-dimensional mass, says Niels Oksbjerg.

- If the cells grow in one layer, then we need approximately one square metre to produce 2.5 g of meat. We need to develop edible scaffolds that the muscle cells can grow on, says Niels Oksbjerg.

Stem cells for lab meat can come from either farm animal embryos (embryonic stem cells) or from farm animals after birth (adult muscle stem cells). Until now, the scientists have worked with cells from pigs, calves and chicks. The cells divide, find each other and form muscle fibres.


Designed meat
 
Embryonic stem cells can become all types of cells whereas the adult stem cells in muscle fibres can become muscle, fat, bone or connective tissue, depending on which conditions they are offered. It is also possible to grow muscle cells in combination with fat cells. In this way scientists can design meat so it has a taste and nutritional content that satisfies consumer demands.

To begin with, the laboratory product will not be able to replace traditional meat but can act as a healthy and sustainable supplement in pizza fillings, meatballs and sausages.

- It is not the ultimate solution to the world’s food problems but all efforts that contribute to the food supply for the nine billion people that are expected to live on this earth in 2050 are welcome, says Niels Oksbjerg.

His colleague at Aarhus University, research professor Jørgen E. Olesen from the Department of Agroecolgy and Environment, agrees.

- There are definitely promising perspectives in a meat production system that does not involve animals. The perspectives are in regard to animal welfare, climate and the environment. With regard to climate, several more things must be developed, though. Even stem cell production requires a supply of carbohydrates, proteins and minerals. They have to come from somewhere. There will also be waste materials that need to be managed. So, even with meat production based on stem cells there will be environmental and climate challenges that must be dealt with, says Jørgen E. Olesen.


May 2011

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Food Outlook – Global Market Analysis – June 2011
High feed prices and disease outbreaks in Asia limit global pig meat production prospects, according to the latest Food Outlook report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Meat and Meat Products Market Summary
High feed prices, disease outbreaks and depleted animal inventories are forecast to limit the expansion of global meat production to only one per cent in 2011, to 294 million tonnes. The increase is anticipated to be driven by gains in the poultry and pig meat sectors, while world bovine and ovine meat outputs are expected to be constrained by a retention of animals for herd rebuilding.

Strong demand for imports, especially in Asia where a number of countries are facing tight supplies and high domestic prices, is expected to foster a 2.4 per cent growth in world meat trade, bringing it to 26.8 million tonnes. Much of the expansion would stem from increased flows of pig meat, and to a lower extent, poultry and bovine meats. On the other hand, trade in ovine meat may stagnate, limited by short availabilities in traditional exporting countries.

Relatively high retail prices are foreseen to keep per capita meat consumption in 2011 stalling around 41.9kg. In the developing countries, steady economic growth may foster a minimal increase to 32.0kg, while per capita consumption in the developed countries is expected to remain at 78.4kg.

International meat prices have maintained steady increases since January 2011, progressing by five per cent over the first quarter, mainly sustained by a 10 per cent increase in pig meat prices. In the near term, the combination of strong world import demand and limited export availabilities points toward a further firming of world meat prices in the next few months.

World meat markets at a glance
  2009 2010
est. 2011
f'cast Change 2011
over 2010
  million tonnes %
WORLD BALANCE
Production 283.2 290.6 294.0 1.1
Bovine meat 64.9  64.9 65.0 0.2
Poultry meat 93.6 98.0 100.2 2.3
Pig meat 106.3 109.2 110.0 0.7
Ovine meat 12.9 13.0 13.1 0.5
Trade 25.2 26.2 26.8 2.4
Bovine meat 7.2 7.5 7.7 1.9
Poultry 11.1 11.5 11.7 1.6
Pig meat 5.8 6.1 6.4 5.0
Ovine meat 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
Per capita food consumption (kg/year):
World 41.3 41.9 41.9 0.1
Developed 78.0 78.4 78.4 0.0
Developing 31.1 31.8 32.0 0.5
FAO MEAT PRICE INDEX
(2002-2004=100) 2009 2010 2011
Jan-May Change:
Jan-May 2011
over Jan-May 2010
(%)
  133 152 175 19.9






FAO international meat price indices
(2002-2004 = 100)
Pig Meat
Pig meat output in 2011 is forecast at 110 million tonnes, less than one per cent more than last year. In China, which holds nearly 50 per cent of global pig inventories, an elimination of sow subsidies as well as outbreaks of foot and mouth disease (FMD) and swine blue ear disease (PRRS), are limiting output growth to two per cent.

Nearby in the region, the Republic of Korea, Asia's fourth largest economy is expected to witness a severe output contraction after FMD outbreaks in late 2010 and in April 2011 led to the slaughter of nearly one-third of the national pig herd at an estimated cost of US$2.7 billion.

High feed prices are limiting expansion of production in the Philippines. In Japan, the five north-east provinces that were affected by the 'triple disaster' hosted 40 per cent of the country's pig population. Animal deaths and the slaughtering at lower weights are expected to depress pig meat production by seven per cent this year. In Thailand, high and rising pig prices prompted the Government to freeze both farm-gate hog prices and retail prices, contributing to a seven per cent production fall.

Little change in pig meat output is currently forecast for the developed countries, as high feed prices continue eroding producer returns. In the United States, poor margins will limit production gains. In Canada, where a hog farm transition programme encourages producers to exit the industry, output is expected to decrease by 1.5 per cent.

In the EU-27, industry restructuring, prompted by high feed prices and the approaching 2013 implementation of new environmental and animal welfare requirements portends a one per cent drop in production. Meanwhile, sliding EU pig prices, due to a late 2010 dioxin crisis in Germany, led to the short-term opening of a private storage aid in early 2011. Despite investments made in the Russian Federation sector, high feed prices and continuing outbreaks of African swine fever in 2011 will limit production gains.



Evolution of pig meat/feed index prices (2002-2004=1)
Trade in pig meat is forecast to hover around 6.4 million tones in 2011, five per cent above last year. Much of the increase is expected to be spurred by double digit growth in imports into Asia, which account for more than half of world trade. In the Republic of Korea, FMD-depleted supplies and the issuance of a new tariff rate quota (TRQ), which allows import of 130,000 tonnes of duty-free product through mid-year, will push up imports to the country by close to 60 percent. Japan is also expected to step up its purchases to compensate for the anticipated production shortfall. In China, recent food scares, related to reported illegal use of chemicals in pig production, may also translate into higher imports.

Pork deliveries to the Russian Federation, the second largest market, are expected to remain in the order of 800,000 tonnes, reflecting sluggish domestic consumption growth and rising production.

In Mexico, pig meat imports for 2011 are forecast to grow moderately but the expansion could be stronger if a recent agreement to solve a long-standing dispute with the United States over the cross-border use of trucking services results in the lifting of import duties on certain pork cuts from NAFTA.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*
"Reduced supplies in Asia to prompt record pig meat imports" 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Strong import demand and limited export availability in competing countries is forecast to propel exports by the United States to a record. Sales from Canada are expected to benefit from a trucking dispute between Mexico and the United States in 2010. Rising import demand in traditional markets, in particular Hong Kong and Japan, is also expected to boost deliveries from China.

With continuing high feed prices, pork exports by the European Union are forecast to increase only marginally from last year's record.

Likewise, increasing internal demand and high domestic prices are limiting to two per cent the recovery of exports in Brazil from last year's double-digit fall. However, the recent opening of the Chinese market to Brazilian pork will offer an opportunity for further expansion of trade between the two countries.

Pig meat statistics (thousand tonnes, carcass weight equivalent)
  Production Imports Exports Utilisation
  2010 est. 2011 f'cast 2010 est. 2011 f'cast 2010 est. 2011 f'cast 2010 est. 2011 f'cast
ASIA 61,926 62,572 2,665 2,993 504 563 64,131 65,000
China 52,019 53,061 769 817 436 489 52,352 53,390
- of which Hong Kong, SAR 122 124 513 532 150 150 485 506
India 485 490 1 1 2 2 484 489
Indonesia 670 680 3 2 1 – 672 682
Japan 1,291 1,200 1,141 1,200     2,429 2,402
Korea, D.P.R. 190 195         190 195
Korea, Rep. 1,110 760 358 562     1,515 1,322
Malaysia 205 208 12 10 5 55 212 213
Philippines 1,731 1,737 70 75 2 2 1,799 1,810
Thailand 700 650 1   17 18 684 633
Viet Nam 2,578 2,620 42 42 33 38 2,578 2,620
AFRICA 1,173 1,187 197 204 9 9 1,362 1,382
Madagascar 55 55     – – 55 55
Nigeria 225 227         225 227
South Africa 320 325 35 35 4 4 351 356
Uganda 110 115         110 115
CENTRAL AMERICA 1,671 1,709 721 739 97 105 2,295 2,344
Cuba 182 185 30 30 – – 212 215
Mexico 1,165 1,195 568 575 80 88 1,653 1,682
SOUTH AMERICA 5,023 5,143 93 101 747 769 4,370 4,476
Argentina 245 250 36 40 2 2 279 288
Brazil 3,226 3,307 1 1 625 636 2,602 2,672
Chile 518 522 10 10 120 130 408 402
Colombia 190 200 7 9 – – 197 209
Venezuela 174 178 15 16 – – 189 194
NORTH AMERICA 12,115 12,167 624 673 2,839 3,047 9,900 9,788
Canada 1,928 1,899 189 220 1,049 1,067 1,068 1,052
USA 10,187 10,268 430 448 1,790 1,980 8,827 8,731
EUROPE 26,832 26,739 1,185 1,185 1,852 1,855 26,165 26,069
Belarus 385 390 40 39 50 59 375 370
European Union 22,544 22,341 32 32 1,754 1,750 20,822 20,623
Russian Fed. 2,260 2,298 785 786 23 23 3,022 3,061
Serbia 500 480 42 44 6 6 536 518
Ukraine 650 730 122 126     772 856
OCEANIA 475 483 219 226 35 37 659 671
Australia 335 342 170 177 35 37 470 482
Papua New Guinea 68 68 4 4     72 72
WORLD 109,216 110,001 5,705 6,123 6,083 6,385 108,881 109,731
Developing
countries 67,983 68,886 2,420 2,718 1,352 1,441 69,099 70,159
Developed
countries 41,233 41,115 3,285 3,404 4,731 4,944 39,783 39,572
LIFDCs 55,767 56,841 635 676 347 409 56,055 57,108
LDCs 1,191 1,217 138 145 – – 1,329 1,363
LIFDCs = Low-Income, Food-Deficit Countries
LDCs = Less Developed Countries

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Monday, June 20, 2011
Higher Commodity Prices Here to Stay
GLOBAL - The latest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020 predicts the impact of high prices on the poor in developing countries can be devastating.


Higher food prices and volatility in commodity markets are here to stay, according to a new report by the OECD and FAO.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020 says that a good harvest in the coming months should push commodity prices down from the extreme levels seen earlier this year. However, the Outlook states that over the coming decade real prices for cereals could average as much as 20 per cent higher and those for meats as much as 30 per cent higher, compared to 2001-10. These projections are well below the peak price levels experienced in 2007-08 and again this year.

Higher prices for commodities are being passed through the food chain, leading to rising consumer price inflation in most countries. This raises concerns for economic stability and food security in some developing countries, with poor consumers most at risk of malnutrition, the report says.

OECD Secretary-General, Angel Gurría, said: "While higher prices are generally good news for farmers, the impact on the poor in developing countries who spend a high proportion of their income on food can be devastating.

"That is why we are calling on governments to improve information and transparency of both physical and financial markets, encourage investments that increase productivity in developing countries, remove production and trade distorting policies and assist the vulnerable to better manage risk and uncertainty."

FAO Director-General, Jacques Diouf, commented: "In the current market context, price volatility could remain a feature of agricultural markets, and coherent policies are required to both reduce volatility and limit its negative impacts", noting that "the key solution to the problem will be boosting investment in agriculture and reinforcing rural development in developing countries, where 98 percent of the hungry people live today and where population is expected to increase by 47 per cent over the next decades."

Action should focus in particular on smallholders in low-income food-deficit countries, he added.

G20
The Outlook reinforces the core messages for mitigating and managing price volatility in a recent inter-agency report to the G20, 'Price Volatility in Food and Agriculture Markets: Policy Responses', coordinated by FAO and OECD on behalf of 10 international organisations.

The report suggests, among other things, that G20 countries take steps to boost agricultural productivity in developing countries, reduce or eliminate trade-disorting policies and establish a new mechanism to improve information and transparency on agricultural production, consumption, stocks and trade.

Fisheries
The Outlook, which covers fisheries for the first time, sees global agricultural production growing more slowly over the next decade than in the past 10 years. Farm output is expected to rise by 1.7 per cent annually, compared to the 2.6 per cent growth rate of the past decade. Despite this slower growth, production per-capita is still projected to rise by 0.7 per cent annually.

Per-capita food consumption will expand most rapidly in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America, where incomes are rising and populations growth is slowing. Meat, dairy products, vegetable oils and sugar should experience the highest demand increases, according to the report.

Global production in the fisheries sector is projected to increase by 1.3 percent annually to 2020. This is slower than growth over the previous decade, due to reduced or stagnant capture of wild fish stocks and lower growth rates in aquaculture, which underwent a rapid expansion over the 2001-2010 period.

By 2015, aquaculture is projected to surpass capture fisheries as the most important source of fish for human consumption, and by 2020 should represent about 45 per cent of total fishery production, including non-food uses.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, July 07, 2011
FAO Food Price Index Up Slightly in June
GLOBAL - FAO's Food Price Index rose one percent to 234 points in June 2011 - 39 per cent higher than in June 2010 but four per cent below its all-time high of 238 points in February of this year.




FAO Food Price Index upA strong rise in international sugar prices was behind much of the increase, according to FAO.

The FAO Cereal Price index averaged 259 points in June, down one per cent from May but 71 per cent higher than in June 2010. Improved weather conditions in Europe and the announced lifting of the Russian Federation's export ban contributed to the price drop.

However the maize market remained tight because of low 2010 supplies and continued wet conditions in the United States. Prices of rice were mostly up in June, reflecting strong import demand and uncertainty over export prices in Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter.

Sugar rises on Brazil prospects
The FAO Sugar Price Index rose 14 per cent from May to June, reaching 359 points, 15 per cent below its January record. Production in Brazil, the world's biggest sugar producer, is forecast to fall below last year's level.

The FAO Dairy price Index averaged 232 points in June, virtually unchanged from 231 points in May. The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 180, marginally up from May with poultry meat rising three per cent and climbing to a new record, while pig meat prices declined somewhat.

New cereal forecast
Following two consecutive revisions to the US crops and planting prospects for 2011, FAO's latest forecast for world cereal production in 2011/2012 stands at nearly 2 313 million tonnes, 3.3 per cent higher than last year and 11 million tonnes above FAO's last forecast on 22 June.

World cereal utilization in 2011/2012 is forecast to grow 1.4 per cent from 2010/2011, reaching 2 307 million tonnes, just five million tonnes under forecast production.

World cereal stocks at the close of the crop season in 2012 are now expected to stand six million tonnes above their opening levels. While wheat and rice inventories are expected to become more comfortable, coarse grains stocks, especially maize, would remain tight.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates – July 2011
Meat production in the US is expected to remain stable next year, according to the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
The forecast for 2011 total meat production is lowered from last month as lower beef production more than offsets higher expected pork and turkey production. Beef production is lowered as steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter was lower than expected although more cows were slaughtered. In addition, recent placements of lighter-weight cattle are expected to moderate carcass weight growth during the year. The 2011 pork production forecast is raised on larger fourth-quarter slaughter. Broiler production for 2011 is unchanged as higher second-quarter production is offset by lower forecast production in the fourth quarter. Turkey production is raised largely on higher second-quarter production. No change is made to table egg production but hatching egg production is lowered due to a stronger forecast decline in last-quarter broiler production.

For 2012, meat production forecasts are reduced as a sharper reduction in the broiler production forecast more than offsets higher pork and turkey production. Larger cut-backs in broiler production are expected to carry into 2012 before production increases gradually later in the year. The pork production forecast is raised slightly, driven primarily by gains in pigs per litter. Despite higher forecast hog prices, producers are expected to remain cautious in expanding farrowings. Egg production forecasts for 2012 are reduced on less demand for hatching eggs.

A small increase is made to the export forecast for beef in 2011 but no changes are made to pork or broiler exports. For 2012, pork exports are raised, but no changes are made to either beef or broilers. No changes are made to beef, pork, or broiler imports for either 2011 or 2012.

Cattle and hog prices are forecast higher for 2011 but forecast broiler prices are lowered as large supplies are pressuring prices. For 2012, cattle price forecasts are unchanged. Hog price forecasts are raised as demand strength carries into 2012, but price gains will be moderated by higher production. Broiler prices are raised slightly as 2012 supplies are forecast to be tighter.

Milk production forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are raised. Cow numbers are forecast higher as higher milk prices and lower forecast feed prices support further herd expansion, but milk per cow is unchanged from last month. Commercial exports on a fat basis are forecast higher for 2011. Ending stock forecasts are raised as cheese stocks are larger than expected.

Dairy product price forecasts for 2011 are raised from last month. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised from last month in line with increased product prices. The all-milk price is forecast at $20.00 to $20.30 per cwt for 2011. For 2012, the butter price is forecast slightly higher than last month, but forecasts for other products are unchanged. Class price forecasts are unchanged. The all milk price forecast for 2012 is unchanged at $17.75 to $18.75 per cwt.

Wheat
US wheat supplies for 2011/12 are raised 90 million bushels as higher carry-in and production more than offset reductions in imports and higher use. Beginning stocks are raised 52 million bushels mostly reflecting higher estimated carryout for 2010/11 as reported in the 30 June Grain Stocks report. Production for 2011/12 is forecast at 2,106 million bushels, up 48 million from last month as higher winter wheat production and higher forecast yields for durum and other spring wheat more than offset lower area as estimated in the 30 June Acreage report. Partly offsetting is a 10-million-bushel reduction in projected imports with lower expected supplies in Canada.

US wheat usage for 2011/12 is raised with a shift in expected seed usage from 2010/11 and higher expected exports compared with last month. Seed use for 2011/12 is raised seven million bushels as late planting in the Northern Plains shifted seed usage for the 2011 crop into the 2011/12 marketing year which began on 1 June. Exports are raised 100 million bushels with larger domestic supplies and reduced competition expected from Canada. Ending stocks are projected 17 million bushels lower at 670 million. While ending stocks remain adequate for most classes of wheat, durum stocks are projected to be especially tight with sharply lower area and production this year. The 2011/12 season-average farm price for all wheat is lowered 40 cents on each end of the projected range to $6.60 to $8.00 per bushel, mostly reflecting the sharp drop in projected corn prices this month.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 0.9 million tons higher as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower expected world production. Larger carry-in in the United States and Russia accounts for most of the increase in 2011/12 world beginning stocks. Revisions to 2010/11 trade and usage for a number of other countries, based on the latest data, also affect world beginning stocks for 2011/12.

World wheat production for 2011/12 is projected down 1.9 million tons with reductions in Canada, Ukraine and Mexico more than offsetting increases for the United States, Turkey and EU-27. Canada production is lowered 3.5 million tons as persistent heavy rains and flooding well into the second half of June limited planting opportunities for spring wheat in southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba. Production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Ukraine as persistent spring dryness in north central areas of the country stressed developing plants and appears to have limited vegetative growth and tillering. Production is lowered 0.4 million tons for Mexico based on the latest official reports. Turkey production is raised 1.1 million tons as abundant spring moisture boosted yields across the country. EU-27 production is raised 0.6 million tons as higher yields for Spain and Romania more than offset a reduction for Hungary.

Global wheat exports for 2011/12 are projected 2.4 million tons higher, mostly with higher expected exports from the United States and Russia. Imports are raised for EU-27, Egypt, Mexico, Japan, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Yemen. Partly offsetting are import reductions for the United States, South Korea and Viet Nam. Exports are raised for Russia as relatively low prices make Russian wheat competitive into North Africa and Middle East markets. Exports are also raised for Turkey with larger production. Exports are lowered for Ukraine reflecting the smaller expected crop. Lower exports from Canada are more than offset by higher exports from the United States.

Global 2011/12 wheat consumption is raised 3.0 million tons, mostly reflecting higher wheat feeding in EU-27, Russia and Turkey, higher food use in Egypt, Japan and Russia, and higher industrial use in Canada. Partly offsetting these increases are reductions in wheat feeding in Australia, Canada and South Korea. Global ending stocks are projected 2.1 million tons lower with most of the decline expected in the Russia, Canada and the United States.

Coarse Grains
US feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected higher this month mostly with higher expected beginning stocks and production for corn. Corn beginning stocks are raised 150 million bushels reflecting changes to 2010/11 usage projections. Corn production for 2011/12 is projected 270 million bushels higher based on planted and harvested area as reported in the Acreage report. Feed and residual use for 2011/12 is raised 50 million bushels with larger supplies and lower expected prices. Corn use for ethanol is raised 100 million bushels with larger supplies and an improved outlook for ethanol producer margins. Exports are raised 100 million bushels mostly reflecting increased demand from China. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 175 million bushels higher at 870 million. The 2011/12 season-average farm price for corn is projected at a record $5.50 to $6.50 per bushel, down 50 cents on both ends of the range.

Lower production for the other US feed grains for 2011/12 mostly reflect lower estimated area from the Acreage report, which is partly offset by higher forecast yields for barley. Oats yields are lowered. Domestic use is projected lower for sorghum and oats, and sorghum exports are lowered. Projected farm prices are lowered for sorghum, barley and oats.

Total US corn use for 2010/11 is projected 145 million bushels lower mostly reflecting the larger-than-expected stocks estimate on 1 June. Feed and residual use is lowered 150 million bushels. Ethanol use is raised 50 million bushels with larger supplies and improved ethanol producer margins. Partly offsetting is a 20-million-bushel reduction in use for sweeteners reflecting slower demand from Mexico. Corn exports are lowered 25 million bushels based on the slower-than-expected pace of shipments in recent weeks. Imports are raised five million bushels with continued strong shipments from Canada. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are raised 150 million bushels to 880 million. The season-average farm price is projected at $5.15 to $5.35 per bushel compared with $5.20 to $5.50 last month.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected 10.3 million tons higher mostly on higher corn beginning stocks and production in the United States. Foreign coarse grain beginning stocks changes are mostly offsetting with corn carry-in lowered 0.5 million tons for Canada and barley carry-in raised 0.2 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively, for Argentina and Australia. Foreign corn production is lowered 0.6 million tons. Corn production is lowered 0.5 million tons each for Mexico and Russia, and 0.2 million tons for Canada. Ukraine corn production is raised 0.5 million tons and production for Belarus is raised 0.2 million tons. World barley production is raised 1.3 million tons with production raised 1.0 million tons for Russia, 0.8 million tons for Turkey, 0.4 million tons for EU-27 and 0.2 million tons for Argentina. Partly offsetting is a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Ukraine barley. Canada oats production is lowered 0.4 million tons.

Global corn trade for 2011/12 is raised with higher imports for China. China corn imports are raised 1.5 million tons to 2.0 million tons, reflecting the recently announced sale to China and favourable pricing opportunities for US corn into southern China where growing demand is reducing stocks. Corn exports are lowered 0.5 million tons for Canada and 0.2 million tons each for Mexico and Russia, partly offsetting the US increase. Global corn consumption is raised 5.9 million tons with higher expected feeding in China, the United States and Ukraine, and higher industrial use expected in the United States and Canada. Global corn ending stocks are projected 3.8 million tons higher with the US increase only partly offset by reductions for Canada and Mexico.

Rice
US rice supplies in 2011/12 are lowered six per cent to 256.6 million cwt as beginning stocks and production are reduced 6.0 million and 12.5 million, respectively. These reductions are partially offset by a 1.0 million cwt increase in imports to 19.0 million. Ending stocks for 2010/11 (beginning stocks for 2011/12) are lowered 6.0 million cwt as 2010/11 domestic and residual use is raised based on the Rice Stocks report showing stocks as of 1 June, which indicated lower-than-expected stocks and implied higher 2010/11 annual usage than previously estimated. Rice production in 2011/12 is lowered six per cent to 187.0 million cwt, due entirely to a reduction in acreage. Harvested area for 2011/12 is lowered 185,000 acres to 2.65 million. The average all rice yield is raised slightly to 7,059 pounds per acre. Area in 2011/12 is the lowest since 1987/88, and the crop size would be the lowest since 1997/98.

Total use for 2011/12 is lowered 5.0 million cwt to 227.0 million as exports are lowered 6.0 million (all in long-grain rice) to 100.0 million, partially offset by a 1.0 million increase in domestic and residual use. Rough rice and combined milled and brown rice exports (rough-equivalent basis) are each reduced 3.0 million cwt to 36.0 million and 64 million, respectively. Tighter supplies in 2011/12 along with plentiful supplies among the major exporters will likely limit US exports. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 29.6 million cwt, down 12.5 million, or 30 per cent from a month ago, and 21.0 million or 42 per cent below 2010/11.

The 2011/12 long-grain rice US season-average farm price is projected at $12.00 to $13.00 per cwt, up 70 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to $11.10 per cwt for 2010/11. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $16.00 to $17.00 per cwt, up $1.00 per cwt from a month ago compared to $17.00 per cwt for 2010/11. The 2011/12 all rice price is projected at $13.20 to $14.20 per cwt, up $1.00 per cwt on each end of the range.

Global 2011/12 rice production and trade are little changed from last month, while consumption is lowered and ending stocks are raised. Global production is projected at a record 456.3 million tons, down fractionally as the drop in the US crop is nearly offset by an increase for Egypt. Global exports in 2011/12 are lowered slightly due mostly to an expected decline in US exports. Global consumption in 2011/12 is lowered 1.7 million tons due mostly to a reduction for India. World ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 96.3 million tons, up 1.4 million from last month, and nearly the same as the previous year. The increase in ending stocks is due mostly to an increase for India.

Oilseeds
US oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 96.3 million tons, down 2.3 million tons from last month, with lower soybean production accounting for most of the change. Soybean production is projected at 3.225 billion bushels, down 60 million due to reduced harvested area. Harvested area, estimated at 74.3 million acres in the Acreage report on 30 June, is 1.4 million below the June projection. The soybean yield is projected at 43.4 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month. Soybean supplies are 40 million bushels below last month's forecast as higher beginning stocks partly offset lower production. Exports for 2011/12 are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting lower US supplies, increased supplies in South America this fall and reduced global imports. US soybean ending stocks are projected at 175 million bushels, down 15 million.

US soybean exports for 2010/11 are projected at 1.52 billion bushels, down 20 million from last month in part reflecting lower projected imports for China. Soybean ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 200 million bushels, up 20 million.

The 2011/12 US season-average soybean price is projected at a record $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel, down $1.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $345 to $375 per short ton, down $30 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 54 to 58 cents per pound, down 4 cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 455.5 million tons, down 1.4 million from last month. Lower soybean, peanut and rapeseed production estimates are only partly offset by increases for sunflower seed. Global soybean production is projected at 261.5 million tons, down 1.3 million mostly due to lower production in the United States. Higher soybean production for Russia resulting from increased area partly offsets the US reduction. Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada due to lower harvested area. Despite a record planted area estimate reported by Statistics Canada based on producer surveys conducted in late May and early June, much of the intended area in southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba did not get planted due to excessive moisture through late June. As a result, the Canada rapeseed crop is projected at 12.6 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month. Other changes include increased rapeseed production for Russia, increased sunflower seed production for Russia and Ukraine, and reduced canola, cottonseed and peanut production for the United States.

Sugar
Projected US sugar supply for fiscal year 2011/12 is increased 218,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Higher imports from Mexico more than offset lower beginning stocks. Total 2011/12 US sugar use is unchanged.

For Mexico, 2010/11 ending stocks are increased 102,000 metric tons, raw value, with lower production more than offset by reduced domestic use and exports. For 2011/12, the larger beginning stocks and decreases in domestic use and ending stocks result in higher exports of 258,000 tons. The decrease in 2011/12 domestic use is in line with weaker demand for total sweeteners in Mexico.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates – August 2011
Meat and poultry supplies are expected to remain stable while corn, wheat and oilseed supplies this month are forecast to be down, according to the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
Small changes are made to the 2011 forecast of total red meat and poultry production. Beef production is reduced slightly. Although fed cattle slaughter is raised to reflect the large number of cattle placed in feedlots during the second quarter due to drought in the Southern Plains, second-half carcass weights have been reduced. The pork production forecast is lowered due to the expected short-term effect of recent hot, humid weather on third-quarter hog weights. For the year, broiler production is unchanged from last month. Production in June was higher than expected which offsets a sharper expected decline in second-half production. Turkey production is raised as higher forecast turkey prices are expected to moderate the expected decline in second-half production. The egg production forecast is reduced slightly from last month.

For 2012, beef production is reduced due to slower carcass weight growth and slightly lower later year slaughter. Higher feed prices are expected to slow the pace of later year marketings as cattle are kept on forage longer. Pork production is lowered as tight feed supplies pressure hog weights. Broiler production is forecast lower as the stronger second-half production declines carry into the first part of 2012. Turkey production is expected to grow more slowly as higher feed prices partly offset higher turkey prices. Egg production is reduced from last month on higher feed prices.

Beef imports are forecast higher in 2011 as demand for processing meat remains relatively strong. Beef exports are raised for both 2011 and 2012. A favourable exchange rate is expected to support exports to a number of countries. Likewise, pork export forecasts are raised for both 2011 and 2012. A favourable exchange rate and relatively strong demand for pork in Asia are expected to boost exports. US pork imports are reduced slightly in both years. No change is made to broiler exports for either 2011 or 2012 but turkey exports in 2011 are expected to be slightly stronger.

Cattle prices are forecast slightly lower for the third quarter but subsequent forecasts are unchanged. Hog prices are forecast higher for both 2011 and 2012 as stronger export demand in both years support prices. Broiler prices are lowered in both 2011 and in the first part of 2012 as supplies remain relatively large.

The milk production forecast for 2011 is reduced. Although the July Cattle report indicated that producers are holding relatively large numbers of dairy replacement heifers which supports a higher forecast dairy herd, recent hot, humid weather and relatively high priced feed may constrain the growth in milk per cow. Milk production is forecast higher for 2012, reflecting a larger herd in the first part of 2012 but slightly slower growth in milk per cow. Commercial exports for 2011 are forecast higher on the strength of butterfat exports. Imports are lowered reflecting lower imports of cheese and milk proteins. Trade forecasts for 2012 are unchanged.

Cheese, butter, and whey prices are forecast higher for 2011, but non-fat dry milk (NDM) is forecast lower. Tighter milk supplies are expected to support higher product prices but softening international prices will likely weigh on US NDM markets. The Class III price is raised, based on higher forecast cheese and whey prices, but lower forecast NDM prices will outweigh higher butter prices and the Class IV price forecast is reduced. For 2012, NDM prices are forecast lower on expected weaker early-year demand but cheese prices are forecast slightly higher. Forecast butter and whey prices are unchanged from last month. The Class III price is raised reflecting higher forecast cheese prices but lower NDM prices result in a reduced forecast for the Class IV price. The all milk price forecast is raised to $20.30 to $20.50 per cwt for 2011 and $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt for 2012.

Wheat
US wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 30 million bushels this month as higher forecast winter wheat production is more than offset by lower area and production for durum and other spring wheat. Total use for 2011/12 is lowered 30 million bushels with a reduced outlook for exports more than offsetting an increase in expected feed and residual use. Exports are projected down 50 million bushels with increased competition, particularly from FSU-12 countries, where production prospects are raised. Projected feed and residual use is raised 20 million bushels, reflecting a continuation of competitive prices for feed-quality wheat and lower projected corn supplies. Ending stocks are nearly unchanged. The 2011/12 season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $7.00 to $8.20 per bushel, up from last month’s range of $6.60 to $8.00 per bushel supported by higher projected prices for corn.

Small changes are made to 2009/10 and 2010/11 supplies and usage reflecting the latest revisions to trade estimates from the US Bureau of Census. These revisions result in adjustments to feed and residual use in both years.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 11.4 million tons higher with higher beginning stocks and a sharp increase in production. World wheat production for 2011/12 is raised 9.7 million tons with increases in FSU-12, India, China and EU-27 more than offsetting a reduction for Argentina. Russia production for 2011/12 is raised 3.0 million tons on harvest reports for winter wheat and continued favourable weather in most of the country’s spring wheat areas. Ukraine production is increased 3.0 million tons on higher-than-expected yields; however, heavy rains during harvest have reduced this year’s crop quality. Kazakhstan production is increased 1.0 million tons on abundant spring and early summer rainfall. India wheat production is up 1.9 million tons based on the latest official government estimates. China production is raised 1.5 million tons based on the latest official government indications. Production is increased 1.4 million tons for EU-27 with increases for France, Romania and Bulgaria. Harvest results from France indicate yields were hurt less by prolonged spring dryness than early reports had suggested. Partly offsetting is a 1.5-million-ton reduction in expected production for Argentina as the latest planting progress reports suggest less acreage increase this year.

The 2011/12 outlook for world wheat trade and consumption this month is shaped by growing supplies of wheat, especially in FSU-12 and EU-27, and tighter supplies of corn in the United States. Imports are raised 3.0 million tons with increases for South Korea, Algeria, Indonesia, Syria and Kenya. World wheat feeding is increased 4.9 million tons with higher expected feeding in EU-27, China, Canada, South Korea and the United States. Exports are raised 4.0 million tons for Russia and 1.5 million tons for Ukraine, more than offsetting reductions of 1.5 million tons for Argentina, 1.4 million tons for the United States and 1.0 million tons for Canada. World wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 6.7 million tons higher at 188.9 million tons. Stocks are expected to decline slightly from 2010/11 with higher usage but remain 62.9 million tons above their recent low in 2007/08.

Coarse Grains
US feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected lower this month with sharp drops in forecast corn and sorghum production. Corn production for 2011/12 is forecast 556 million bushels lower with a reduction in harvested area and lower expected yields. The national average yield is forecast at 153.0 bushels per acre, down 5.7 bushels from last month’s projection as unusually high temperatures and below average precipitation during July across much of the Corn Belt sharply reduced yield prospects.

Total projected corn use for 2011/12 is reduced 340 million bushels. Feed and residual use is projected 150 million bushels lower reflecting the smaller crop and higher expected prices. Corn use for ethanol is projected 50 million bushels lower with tighter supplies and lower forecast gasoline consumption for 2011 and 2012. Projected corn exports for 2011/12 are reduced 150 million bushels with wheat feeding expected to increase. Ending stocks are projected 156 million bushels lower at 714 million. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 5.4 per cent, compared with last month’s projection of 6.4 per cent. The season-average farm price is projected at $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel, up 70 cents on each end of the range.

Other significant 2011/12 feed grain changes include a sharp reduction in the forecast sorghum yield and production with prolonged drought and excessive heat in the central and southern Plains. Sorghum exports are projected 20 million bushels lower. Domestic use is also projected lower with a 10-million bushel reduction in food, seed and industrial use and a 25-million bushel reduction in feed and residual use.

Small changes are made to 2009/10 feed grain supplies and usage reflecting the latest revisions to trade estimates from the US Bureau of Census and revisions for 2010 calendar year ethanol production from the Energy Information Administration. Estimated feed and residual use for 2009/10 is adjusted based on these revisions.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected lower with a 3.6-million ton increase in beginning stocks more than offset by a 14.0-million ton reduction in output. The decline in global production is driven by reduced corn and sorghum production in the United States with foreign corn, barley and oats production all expected higher. Corn production is raised for Brazil, Ukraine and EU-27 but lowered for Egypt. Barley production is raised for Ukraine and Argentina but lowered for EU-27. World oats production is raised slightly with an increase for EU-27. World rye production is reduced with a smaller expected crop for EU-27.

Global coarse grain exports for 2011/12 are lowered slightly as reduced US corn and sorghum exports are mostly offset by higher expected foreign corn and barley shipments. Corn exports are increased 1.0 million tons for Ukraine, 0.5 million tons for Argentina and 0.5 million tons for Canada making up more than half of the reduction in US exports. Barley exports are increased 0.7 million tons for Ukraine, 0.5 million tons for EU-27 and 0.4 million tons for Argentina with the bulk of those increases to Saudi Arabia.

Global coarse grain consumption is projected down 8.4 million tons with most of this resulting from lower world corn feed and residual use. More than half of the reduction is from lower corn and sorghum feed and residual use in the United States. Corn feeding in lowered for EU-27, Canada and South Korea as rising supplies of competitively priced feed quality wheat displace corn usage. World corn ending stocks are projected down 1.1 million tons with increases for Brazil and EU-27 mostly offsetting the US reduction.

Oilseeds
US oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.7 million tons, down 4.7 million from last month. Soybean, canola and sunflower seed production are all projected lower. Soybean supplies for 2011/12 are reduced as lower forecast production is only partly offset by higher beginning stocks. Soybean production for 2011/12 is projected at 3.056 billion bushels, down 169 million due to lower harvested area and yields. Harvested area is projected at 73.8 million acres, down 0.5 million (using rounded data) mainly reflecting reductions for South Dakota. The first survey-based yield forecast of 41.4 bushels per acre is 2.0 bushels below last month's trend yield projection and 2.1 bushels below last year's yield. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, down 20 million from July as reduced supplies are only partly offset by reduced exports and crush. Soybean exports are reduced 95 million bushels to 1.4 billion mainly due to the lower crop and increased projected supplies in South America this fall. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on lower domestic soybean meal use.

US changes for 2010/11 include reduced soybean crush and exports and increased ending stocks. Crush is reduced five million bushels to 1.645 billion reflecting reduced soybean meal exports. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting lower-than-expected shipments in recent weeks. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 230 million bushels, up 30 million from last month.

Soybean and product prices for 2011/12 are all higher this month. The US season-average soybean price is projected at $12.50 to $14.50 per bushel, up 50 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $355 to $385 per short ton, up $10.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 54.5 to 58.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 451.4 million tons, down 4.1 million tons from last month mostly due to a reduction in the US soybean crop. Reductions for soybeans, rapeseed and cottonseed are only partly offset by increased sunflower seed and peanut production. Lower soybean production is projected for the United States, China and Ukraine. China’s production is projected at 14 million tons, down 0.3 million due to reduced harvested area. Brazil's soybean production is projected at 73.5 million tons, up one million tons due to higher expected yield. Production for Brazil’s 2010/11 crop is also raised this month to a record 75.5 million tons based on record yields. Rapeseed production is reduced for Ukraine and Belarus, reflecting lower yield prospects for both countries. Other changes include higher sunflower seed production for EU-27, higher rapeseed production for Australia, higher peanut production for China and lower cottonseed production for Brazil.

Rice
US total rice supplies for 2011/12 are projected at 257.2 million cwt, up 0.6 million from last month. Increases in both forecast beginning stocks and production more than offset a reduction in imports. USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2011/12 US rice crop is 188.1 million cwt, up 1.1 million from last month's projection but down 23 per cent from the record 2010/11 crop. Average yield is forecast at 7,114 pounds per acre, up 55 pounds per acre from last month’s projection, and up six per cent from last year. Area harvested, at 2.64 million acres, is reduced slightly from a month ago. Long-grain production is forecast at 124.2 million cwt, up 0.7 million from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 63.9 million, up 0.4 million from a month ago. The all rice import projection is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 18.0 million due in part to an expected slower pace of long-grain imports from South Asia.

US total rice use for 2011/12 is projected at 224.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million cwt from last month. Although all rice domestic and residual use is unchanged from last month at 127.0 million cwt, the long-grain projection is lowered 2.0 million to 94.0 million and the combined medium- and short-grain forecast is raised the same amount to 33.0 million. The export projection is lowered 3.0 million cwt from a month ago to 97.0 million based entirely on a decrease in combined medium- and short-grain exports. An increase in competition from both Australia and Egypt is expected in medium-grain markets in North Africa, the Middle East and Oceania. The long-grain export projection is unchanged from a month ago at 66.0 million cwt, and the combined medium- and short-grain estimate is lowered to 31 million. US all-rice ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 33.2 million cwt, up 3.6 million from last month, but down 35 per cent from the previous year.

The 2011/12 long-grain US season-average farm price is projected at $12.70 to $13.70 per cwt, up 70 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, down $1.50 per cwt on each end of the range. The 2011/12 all rice price is projected at $13.20 to $14.20 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. Higher prices are expected in Thailand due to a government intervention programme, which will provide support to global long-grain prices. Larger exportable supplies of medium-grain rice in both Australia and Egypt are expected to pressure global medium-grain rice prices.

Lower projected global 2011/12 total use more than offsets a slight increase in total supplies resulting in an expected increase in ending stocks. The increase in beginning stocks of nearly 0.7 million tons is primarily due to increases for India and Indonesia, which is partially offset by a reduction for Pakistan. Global production is lowered slightly due primarily to forecast reductions for Indonesia as well as North and South Korea, which is partially offset by an increase for Egypt and the United States. On the use side, global consumption is lowered 1.1 million tons, leading to an increase in projected global ending stocks. Domestic consumption is lowered for Pakistan and North Korea. Global exports are up from a month ago due to increases for Brazil, Egypt, India and Pakistan that are partially offset by reductions for Thailand and the United States. Global imports are up for Indonesia and China. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 97.9 million tons, up 1.7 million from last month, largely the result of an upward revision for Thailand.


August 2011

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Seasonality in Pigs
A summary of the findings to date from a research project carried out by the Faculty of Biological Sciences at the University of Leeds, published by BPEX in its series, Research into Action, number 10.
 
The research involved analysing a large data set as well as the weather, topography and staffing parameters to see what has an effect on production over summer and autumn.

For outdoor sows in the UK, several days of warm weather (average daily temperature above 18°C) during lactation and around weaning results in reduced and more variable farrowing rates in comparison to when temperatures are below 18°C.



Farrowing rate in relation to five consecutive days of weather conditions for five weeks prior to service date
Sow heat production increases as lactation progresses in line with increasing milk production; hence heat production, and so susceptibility to developing heat stress, is greatest just before weaning.

If environmental temperatures are warm then the sow may reduce her feed intake such that it fails to meet the metabolic demands of lactation; she will then mobilise her own body reserves to meet the ongoing requirements of lactation resulting in reduced body condition and possible adverse effects on developing ovarian follicles. Nutritional deficits are associated with reduced luteinising hormone (LH) production, resulting in delayed returns to oestrus and reduced conception and farrowing rates.

In this study, gilts were found to be the least affected by warmer temperatures, probably because they do not have the increased metabolic demand of lactation prior to service.

In order to cool down in warmer weather, sows redirect their blood flow to their skin and mammary tissues, away from the ovaries. The quality of their eggs and the readiness of their uterus for pregnancy may therefore be negatively affected.

The findings from this research suggest that cooling facilities should be provided to outdoor sows in the UK when daily average temperature rises above 18°C.

Management Guidelines
Monitor sow feed intake in warm weather. If sows are not eating, take steps to cool them down or provide more energy-dense feed


Provide wallows early on in the year as well as throughout summer, or sprinklers for sows to cool down in. In individual paddocks you could create a spray of water from the sow drinkers, providing an area of mud in which the sow can stand or wallow


Paint farrowing arcs white to reflect sunlight and reduce the temperature inside; painting huts white can reduce internal arc temperatures by around 7°C


Use insulated arcs, fully insulated where possible; combining this with painting arcs white will have an additive temperature reducing effect


Use an adjustable ventilation opening at the rear and re-align arcs to assist with air flow


Feed sows twice a day if not on an ad-lib system.



August 2011

[Mustang Sally Farm]

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates – August 2011
Meat and poultry supplies are expected to remain stable while corn, wheat and oilseed supplies this month are forecast to be down, according to the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
Small changes are made to the 2011 forecast of total red meat and poultry production. Beef production is reduced slightly. Although fed cattle slaughter is raised to reflect the large number of cattle placed in feedlots during the second quarter due to drought in the Southern Plains, second-half carcass weights have been reduced. The pork production forecast is lowered due to the expected short-term effect of recent hot, humid weather on third-quarter hog weights. For the year, broiler production is unchanged from last month. Production in June was higher than expected which offsets a sharper expected decline in second-half production. Turkey production is raised as higher forecast turkey prices are expected to moderate the expected decline in second-half production. The egg production forecast is reduced slightly from last month.

For 2012, beef production is reduced due to slower carcass weight growth and slightly lower later year slaughter. Higher feed prices are expected to slow the pace of later year marketings as cattle are kept on forage longer. Pork production is lowered as tight feed supplies pressure hog weights. Broiler production is forecast lower as the stronger second-half production declines carry into the first part of 2012. Turkey production is expected to grow more slowly as higher feed prices partly offset higher turkey prices. Egg production is reduced from last month on higher feed prices.

Beef imports are forecast higher in 2011 as demand for processing meat remains relatively strong. Beef exports are raised for both 2011 and 2012. A favourable exchange rate is expected to support exports to a number of countries. Likewise, pork export forecasts are raised for both 2011 and 2012. A favourable exchange rate and relatively strong demand for pork in Asia are expected to boost exports. US pork imports are reduced slightly in both years. No change is made to broiler exports for either 2011 or 2012 but turkey exports in 2011 are expected to be slightly stronger.

Cattle prices are forecast slightly lower for the third quarter but subsequent forecasts are unchanged. Hog prices are forecast higher for both 2011 and 2012 as stronger export demand in both years support prices. Broiler prices are lowered in both 2011 and in the first part of 2012 as supplies remain relatively large.

The milk production forecast for 2011 is reduced. Although the July Cattle report indicated that producers are holding relatively large numbers of dairy replacement heifers which supports a higher forecast dairy herd, recent hot, humid weather and relatively high priced feed may constrain the growth in milk per cow. Milk production is forecast higher for 2012, reflecting a larger herd in the first part of 2012 but slightly slower growth in milk per cow. Commercial exports for 2011 are forecast higher on the strength of butterfat exports. Imports are lowered reflecting lower imports of cheese and milk proteins. Trade forecasts for 2012 are unchanged.

Cheese, butter, and whey prices are forecast higher for 2011, but non-fat dry milk (NDM) is forecast lower. Tighter milk supplies are expected to support higher product prices but softening international prices will likely weigh on US NDM markets. The Class III price is raised, based on higher forecast cheese and whey prices, but lower forecast NDM prices will outweigh higher butter prices and the Class IV price forecast is reduced. For 2012, NDM prices are forecast lower on expected weaker early-year demand but cheese prices are forecast slightly higher. Forecast butter and whey prices are unchanged from last month. The Class III price is raised reflecting higher forecast cheese prices but lower NDM prices result in a reduced forecast for the Class IV price. The all milk price forecast is raised to $20.30 to $20.50 per cwt for 2011 and $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt for 2012.

Wheat
US wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 30 million bushels this month as higher forecast winter wheat production is more than offset by lower area and production for durum and other spring wheat. Total use for 2011/12 is lowered 30 million bushels with a reduced outlook for exports more than offsetting an increase in expected feed and residual use. Exports are projected down 50 million bushels with increased competition, particularly from FSU-12 countries, where production prospects are raised. Projected feed and residual use is raised 20 million bushels, reflecting a continuation of competitive prices for feed-quality wheat and lower projected corn supplies. Ending stocks are nearly unchanged. The 2011/12 season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $7.00 to $8.20 per bushel, up from last month’s range of $6.60 to $8.00 per bushel supported by higher projected prices for corn.

Small changes are made to 2009/10 and 2010/11 supplies and usage reflecting the latest revisions to trade estimates from the US Bureau of Census. These revisions result in adjustments to feed and residual use in both years.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 11.4 million tons higher with higher beginning stocks and a sharp increase in production. World wheat production for 2011/12 is raised 9.7 million tons with increases in FSU-12, India, China and EU-27 more than offsetting a reduction for Argentina. Russia production for 2011/12 is raised 3.0 million tons on harvest reports for winter wheat and continued favourable weather in most of the country’s spring wheat areas. Ukraine production is increased 3.0 million tons on higher-than-expected yields; however, heavy rains during harvest have reduced this year’s crop quality. Kazakhstan production is increased 1.0 million tons on abundant spring and early summer rainfall. India wheat production is up 1.9 million tons based on the latest official government estimates. China production is raised 1.5 million tons based on the latest official government indications. Production is increased 1.4 million tons for EU-27 with increases for France, Romania and Bulgaria. Harvest results from France indicate yields were hurt less by prolonged spring dryness than early reports had suggested. Partly offsetting is a 1.5-million-ton reduction in expected production for Argentina as the latest planting progress reports suggest less acreage increase this year.

The 2011/12 outlook for world wheat trade and consumption this month is shaped by growing supplies of wheat, especially in FSU-12 and EU-27, and tighter supplies of corn in the United States. Imports are raised 3.0 million tons with increases for South Korea, Algeria, Indonesia, Syria and Kenya. World wheat feeding is increased 4.9 million tons with higher expected feeding in EU-27, China, Canada, South Korea and the United States. Exports are raised 4.0 million tons for Russia and 1.5 million tons for Ukraine, more than offsetting reductions of 1.5 million tons for Argentina, 1.4 million tons for the United States and 1.0 million tons for Canada. World wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 6.7 million tons higher at 188.9 million tons. Stocks are expected to decline slightly from 2010/11 with higher usage but remain 62.9 million tons above their recent low in 2007/08.

Coarse Grains
US feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected lower this month with sharp drops in forecast corn and sorghum production. Corn production for 2011/12 is forecast 556 million bushels lower with a reduction in harvested area and lower expected yields. The national average yield is forecast at 153.0 bushels per acre, down 5.7 bushels from last month’s projection as unusually high temperatures and below average precipitation during July across much of the Corn Belt sharply reduced yield prospects.

Total projected corn use for 2011/12 is reduced 340 million bushels. Feed and residual use is projected 150 million bushels lower reflecting the smaller crop and higher expected prices. Corn use for ethanol is projected 50 million bushels lower with tighter supplies and lower forecast gasoline consumption for 2011 and 2012. Projected corn exports for 2011/12 are reduced 150 million bushels with wheat feeding expected to increase. Ending stocks are projected 156 million bushels lower at 714 million. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 5.4 per cent, compared with last month’s projection of 6.4 per cent. The season-average farm price is projected at $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel, up 70 cents on each end of the range.

Other significant 2011/12 feed grain changes include a sharp reduction in the forecast sorghum yield and production with prolonged drought and excessive heat in the central and southern Plains. Sorghum exports are projected 20 million bushels lower. Domestic use is also projected lower with a 10-million bushel reduction in food, seed and industrial use and a 25-million bushel reduction in feed and residual use.

Small changes are made to 2009/10 feed grain supplies and usage reflecting the latest revisions to trade estimates from the US Bureau of Census and revisions for 2010 calendar year ethanol production from the Energy Information Administration. Estimated feed and residual use for 2009/10 is adjusted based on these revisions.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected lower with a 3.6-million ton increase in beginning stocks more than offset by a 14.0-million ton reduction in output. The decline in global production is driven by reduced corn and sorghum production in the United States with foreign corn, barley and oats production all expected higher. Corn production is raised for Brazil, Ukraine and EU-27 but lowered for Egypt. Barley production is raised for Ukraine and Argentina but lowered for EU-27. World oats production is raised slightly with an increase for EU-27. World rye production is reduced with a smaller expected crop for EU-27.

Global coarse grain exports for 2011/12 are lowered slightly as reduced US corn and sorghum exports are mostly offset by higher expected foreign corn and barley shipments. Corn exports are increased 1.0 million tons for Ukraine, 0.5 million tons for Argentina and 0.5 million tons for Canada making up more than half of the reduction in US exports. Barley exports are increased 0.7 million tons for Ukraine, 0.5 million tons for EU-27 and 0.4 million tons for Argentina with the bulk of those increases to Saudi Arabia.

Global coarse grain consumption is projected down 8.4 million tons with most of this resulting from lower world corn feed and residual use. More than half of the reduction is from lower corn and sorghum feed and residual use in the United States. Corn feeding in lowered for EU-27, Canada and South Korea as rising supplies of competitively priced feed quality wheat displace corn usage. World corn ending stocks are projected down 1.1 million tons with increases for Brazil and EU-27 mostly offsetting the US reduction.

Oilseeds
US oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.7 million tons, down 4.7 million from last month. Soybean, canola and sunflower seed production are all projected lower. Soybean supplies for 2011/12 are reduced as lower forecast production is only partly offset by higher beginning stocks. Soybean production for 2011/12 is projected at 3.056 billion bushels, down 169 million due to lower harvested area and yields. Harvested area is projected at 73.8 million acres, down 0.5 million (using rounded data) mainly reflecting reductions for South Dakota. The first survey-based yield forecast of 41.4 bushels per acre is 2.0 bushels below last month's trend yield projection and 2.1 bushels below last year's yield. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, down 20 million from July as reduced supplies are only partly offset by reduced exports and crush. Soybean exports are reduced 95 million bushels to 1.4 billion mainly due to the lower crop and increased projected supplies in South America this fall. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on lower domestic soybean meal use.

US changes for 2010/11 include reduced soybean crush and exports and increased ending stocks. Crush is reduced five million bushels to 1.645 billion reflecting reduced soybean meal exports. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting lower-than-expected shipments in recent weeks. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 230 million bushels, up 30 million from last month.

Soybean and product prices for 2011/12 are all higher this month. The US season-average soybean price is projected at $12.50 to $14.50 per bushel, up 50 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $355 to $385 per short ton, up $10.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 54.5 to 58.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 451.4 million tons, down 4.1 million tons from last month mostly due to a reduction in the US soybean crop. Reductions for soybeans, rapeseed and cottonseed are only partly offset by increased sunflower seed and peanut production. Lower soybean production is projected for the United States, China and Ukraine. China’s production is projected at 14 million tons, down 0.3 million due to reduced harvested area. Brazil's soybean production is projected at 73.5 million tons, up one million tons due to higher expected yield. Production for Brazil’s 2010/11 crop is also raised this month to a record 75.5 million tons based on record yields. Rapeseed production is reduced for Ukraine and Belarus, reflecting lower yield prospects for both countries. Other changes include higher sunflower seed production for EU-27, higher rapeseed production for Australia, higher peanut production for China and lower cottonseed production for Brazil.

Rice
US total rice supplies for 2011/12 are projected at 257.2 million cwt, up 0.6 million from last month. Increases in both forecast beginning stocks and production more than offset a reduction in imports. USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2011/12 US rice crop is 188.1 million cwt, up 1.1 million from last month's projection but down 23 per cent from the record 2010/11 crop. Average yield is forecast at 7,114 pounds per acre, up 55 pounds per acre from last month’s projection, and up six per cent from last year. Area harvested, at 2.64 million acres, is reduced slightly from a month ago. Long-grain production is forecast at 124.2 million cwt, up 0.7 million from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 63.9 million, up 0.4 million from a month ago. The all rice import projection is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 18.0 million due in part to an expected slower pace of long-grain imports from South Asia.

US total rice use for 2011/12 is projected at 224.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million cwt from last month. Although all rice domestic and residual use is unchanged from last month at 127.0 million cwt, the long-grain projection is lowered 2.0 million to 94.0 million and the combined medium- and short-grain forecast is raised the same amount to 33.0 million. The export projection is lowered 3.0 million cwt from a month ago to 97.0 million based entirely on a decrease in combined medium- and short-grain exports. An increase in competition from both Australia and Egypt is expected in medium-grain markets in North Africa, the Middle East and Oceania. The long-grain export projection is unchanged from a month ago at 66.0 million cwt, and the combined medium- and short-grain estimate is lowered to 31 million. US all-rice ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 33.2 million cwt, up 3.6 million from last month, but down 35 per cent from the previous year.

The 2011/12 long-grain US season-average farm price is projected at $12.70 to $13.70 per cwt, up 70 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, down $1.50 per cwt on each end of the range. The 2011/12 all rice price is projected at $13.20 to $14.20 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. Higher prices are expected in Thailand due to a government intervention programme, which will provide support to global long-grain prices. Larger exportable supplies of medium-grain rice in both Australia and Egypt are expected to pressure global medium-grain rice prices.

Lower projected global 2011/12 total use more than offsets a slight increase in total supplies resulting in an expected increase in ending stocks. The increase in beginning stocks of nearly 0.7 million tons is primarily due to increases for India and Indonesia, which is partially offset by a reduction for Pakistan. Global production is lowered slightly due primarily to forecast reductions for Indonesia as well as North and South Korea, which is partially offset by an increase for Egypt and the United States. On the use side, global consumption is lowered 1.1 million tons, leading to an increase in projected global ending stocks. Domestic consumption is lowered for Pakistan and North Korea. Global exports are up from a month ago due to increases for Brazil, Egypt, India and Pakistan that are partially offset by reductions for Thailand and the United States. Global imports are up for Indonesia and China. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 97.9 million tons, up 1.7 million from last month, largely the result of an upward revision for Thailand.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Sorghum has potential in Southeast Asia
//06 Sep 2011
 Sorghum is exceptionally well-suited for the tropical conditions in Southeast Asia because of its low vulnerability to moulds and mycotoxins and physical characteristics that allow it to be stored longer.
 

Two factors contribute to its current low use levels in the region, according to Adel Yusupov, US Grains Council regional director in Southeast Asia, who recently completed a ten-day sorghum promotion “road show” in Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia.
 
 
 
“Competitive pricing and consistent supply is a barrier,” he said, noting that prices for Argentine sorghum with less than 1.5% tannin were recently $45 per metric ton below Argentine corn and $54 per metric ton cheaper than US sorghum in containers.
 
 
 
Major competition in the region comes from “combo” shipments of Argentine corn and sorghum, which enjoy an additional advantage from feed millers’ preference for Argentine corn over US corn.
 
 
 
Yellow colour
 
A second barrier, according to Yusupov, is regional consumers’ preference for very yellow yolks, fat, and skin in swine and poultry products.
 
 
 
“It would be difficult to convince poultry or pig producers to switch to sorghum (which produces whiter fat in pigs and paler poultry),” he said. “In contrast, there is not the same preference in fish fillets, and the Council believes this is a ready niche market opportunity for sorghum in Southeast Asia.”
 
 
 
He believes progress on sorghum use in the region can be achieved by promoting sorghum to aquaculture feed producers and nutritionists.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

FAO Food Price Index Almost Unchanged
GLOBAL - World food prices remained virtually unchanged between July and August 2011 according to the FAO Food Price Index published today.


The Index averaged 231 points last month compared to 232 points in July. It was 26 per cent higher than in August 2010 but seven points below its all-time high of 238 points in February 2011.

Within the index, cereals prices rose, reflecting the fact that although cereal production is expected to increase, it will not do so by enough to offset the additional demand, so that stocks continue to be low and prices continue to be high and volatile.

The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 253 points in August, up 2.2 per cent, or 5 points, from July and 36 per cent higher than in August 2010. However, the firmer cereal prices were largely offset by declines in international prices of most other commodities included in the Food Price Index, oils and dairy products in particular.

Production rebound
Cereal price rises stem from a supply and demand balance that remains tight despite the anticipated increase in production. World cereal production in 2011 is now forecast to reach 2 307 million tonnes, 3 per cent higher than in 2010. But this latest forecast is nearly 6 million tonnes lower than the previous forecast published in July.

Among the major cereals, the maize supply situation is a cause for concern following downward revisions to maize crop prospects in the United States, the world's largest maize producer, because of continued hot weather in July and August.

Average wheat prices were also up 9 per cent in August given the strong demand for feed wheat and shrinking supplies of high quality wheat. Nonetheless, world wheat production is forecast to increase by 4.3 per cent (or 28 million tonnes), only 4 million tonnes below the 2009 record.

World coarse grain production is still heading for a record level of 1 147.5 million tonnes, up 2.4 per cent (or 27 million tonnes) from 2010, in spite of lowered maize production prospects in the United States, the world's largest maize producer.

Rice price gains
Rice prices also gained with the benchmark Thai rice price up 5 per cent from July, driven by a policy change in Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, where paddy rice will be purchased from farmers at above market prices.

Global rice production prospects remain favourable, however, with output set to reach a new high of 479 million tonnes, up 2.5 per cent from 2010.

Low inventories
Total cereal utilization in 2011/12 is forecast to increase by 1.4 per cent, almost matching anticipated 2011 production. As a result, global cereal inventories by the close of seasons in 2012 are likely to remain close to their already low opening levels. Only rice stocks are expected to increase significantly, supported by record production.

Wheat inventories are likely to decline to their lowest level since 2009 and world stocks of coarse grains are also forecast to plunge, with maize inventories falling to 124 million tonnes, their lowest level since 2007. Given the tight global supply and demand balance for coarse grains, its stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to fall to a historical low of 13.4 per cent.

The FAO Oils/Fats Price Index averaged 244 points in August, following a declining trend since March but still remaining high in historical terms.

The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 221 points in August, significantly down from 228 points in July and 232 points in June, but still 14 per cent higher than the same period last year.

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 181 points in August, up 1 per cent from July.

The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 394 points in August, down 2 per cent from July, but still 50 per cent higher than in August 2010.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates – September 2011
While coarse grain stocks are expected to be lower this month, wheat stocks are projected to be up, according to the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
The 2011 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised reflecting higher beef production but lower pork production. Continued large cow slaughter is expected to boost beef production. A slower pace of slaughter in the third quarter and slightly lower weights due to heat stress are expected to result in lower pork production compared to last month. USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on 28 September, providing an estimate of sow farrowings in June-August and an indication of producer intentions for farrowings into early 2012. Broiler production is about unchanged as an increased forecast of third-quarter production is offset by lower expected production in the fourth quarter. No change is made to turkey production and only a slight revision is made to egg production.

For 2012, the beef production forecast is raised but pork and poultry production forecasts are reduced from last month. Larger forecast early year beef production reflects marketing of the large number of calves which are being placed as a result of drought in the Southern Plains. However, production in subsequent quarters will reflect tighter supplies of cattle and lighter expected carcass weights due to the placement of lighter cattle and relatively high feed prices. Pork forecasts are reduced as tight feed supplies dampen hog weights. Poultry production forecasts are reduced as relatively high feed costs limit the sector’s expansion. The egg production forecast is lowered due to lower hatching egg production.

Beef import forecasts are lowered in 2011 and 2012 as US cow slaughter remains relatively high. The beef export forecast for 2011 is little changed from last month as lower-than-expected second-quarter exports are largely offset by higher forecast exports in the second half of the year. The pork export forecast for 2011 is lowered as second-quarter exports were smaller than expected. The broiler export forecast is also reduced on lower-than-expected shipments in the second quarter. No change is made to red meat or poultry exports for 2012.

The cattle price for 2011 is about unchanged as a higher third-quarter price is offset by a lower fourth-quarter price. Cattle prices for 2012 are forecast slightly lower as larger marketings pressure cattle prices early in the year. Hog prices are raised slightly from last month for 2011 but are unchanged for 2012. Broiler prices are lowered for 2011 as supplies remain relatively large and demand relatively weak. Prices for 2012 are raised from last month on lower production.

The milk production forecast for 2011 is raised as the dairy herd has been expanding at a more rapid rate than expected. However, the forecast for 2012 is reduced as higher forecast feed prices reduce the rate of growth in milk per cow. Commercial exports for 2011 are raised on the strength of current product exports. For 2012, fat-basis exports are lowered, largely on slightly weaker butter exports. Skim solids imports are raised for both 2011 and 2012.

Cheese prices for 2011 are forecast lower but non-fat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are forecast higher on the strength of relatively strong exports. Butter prices remain unchanged. The Class III price is lowered, based on the lower forecast cheese price, but the Class IV price forecast is unchanged from last month. For 2012, butter and cheese prices are unchanged but NDM and whey prices are forecast higher. The Class III price is unchanged, but the Class IV price forecast is raised. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $20.15 to $20.35 per cwt for 2011, but is unchanged at $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt for 2012.

Wheat
Projected US wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 990 million bushels this month with higher expected imports and lower expected food use and exports. Imports are raised 1 0 million bushels with larger supplies in Canada. Food use is projected five million bushels lower in line with revisions to 2010/11 based on the latest and final US Bureau of Census mill grind estimates and reflecting reduced prospects for per-capita flour consumption during calendar year 2011. Exports for 22011/12 are projected 775 million bushels lower with larger supplies and exports expected for Canada and the EU-27. The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $7.355 to $8.35 per bushel, up from last month’s range of $7.00 to $$8.20 per bushel, supported by higher corn prices.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 7.6 million tons higher mostly on larger beginning stocks in Canada and increased production for Canada, EU-27 and Ukraine. Beginning stocks for Canada are raised 1.3 million tons and production is raised 2.5 million tons, both reflecting the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. EU-27 production is raised 2.3 million tons with increases for Germany, Romania, France, Spain and Bulgaria as harvest reports and revisions to official estimates continue to indicate higher yields. Production for Ukraine is raised 1.0 million tons based on the latest harvest reports. Other smaller production changes include 0.2-million-ton increases for both Brazil and Morocco, and a 0.2-million-ton reduction for Uzbekistan.

World wheat trade is raised slightly for 2011/12 with increased imports projected for the United States and Uzbekistan. Global exports are also raised as higher expected shipments from Canada and EU–27 more than offset reductions for the United States and Turkey. Global wheat consumption is increased 1.9 million tons with higher expected wheat feeding in Canada, China, Morocco and Turkey more than offsetting a reduction for Russia. World wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 5.77 million tons higher at 194.6 million. At this level, global stocks would be up from 2010/11 and the second largest in the past decade.

Coarse Grains
US feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected lower this month with reduced corn production as summer heat and dryness continue to be reflected in survey-based yield forecasts. Corn production for 20111/12 is forecast 417 million bushels lower with expected yields down from last month across most of the Corn Belt. The national average corn yield is forecast at 148.1 bushels per acre, down 4.9 bushels from August and 16.6 bushels below the 2009/10 record. As forecast, this year’s yield would be the lowest since 20005/06. Despite the lower yield, production is forecast to be the third highest ever with the second highest planted area since 1944.

Total corn supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 4422 million bushels with a 20-million-bushel reduction in carrying and a five-million-bushel reduction in expected imports. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 drop with small increases in 2010/11 exports and use for sweeteners reflecting the latest available data. Imports for 22011/12 are reduced with the smaller forecast corn crop in Canada. Supplies for 2011/12 are projected to be the lowest since 2006/07.

Total corn use for 2011/12 is projected 400 million bushels lower with tighter supplies. Projected feed and residual use is reduced 20 million bushels, mostly reflecting lower expected residual disappearance with the smaller forecast crop. Corn use for ethanol is projected 100 million bushels lower with higher expected corn prices and continued weakening in the outlook for US gasoline consumption as forecast by the Energy Information Administration. Corn exports for 2011/12 are projected 100 million bushels lower with increased supplies and exports expected from Ukraine, Argentina and Brazil. US ending stocks are projected 42 million bushels lower at 672 million. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 5.3 per cent, compared with last month’s projection of 5.4 per cent. The season-average farm price is projected 30 cents per bushel higher on both ends of the range to a record $6.50 to $7.50 per bushel.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected 3.1 million tons lower with larger barley, sorghum, millet and oats supplies only partly offsetting the reduction for corn driven by the US changes. Global corn supplies are reduced 4.5 million tons as increases in foreign beginning stocks and production partly offset the reduction in US supplies. Projected global corn production for 2011/12 is lowered 5.9 million tons as a 4.8-million-ton increase in expected foreign output is outweighed by the 10.6-million-ton US reduction. Brazil and Argentina production for 2011/12 are raised 4.0 million tons and 1.5 million tons, respectively, on higher expected area with rising returns for corn in both countries. Ukraine corn production is raised 1.5 million tons based on indications for higher yields. Production is raised 1.0 million tons for EU-27 with higher expected yields in France and several countries in Eastern Europe. Production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Canada based on the latest Statistics Canada estimates. Production is also lowered 2.1 million tons for Egypt as lack of government restrictions on planting resulted in a sharp shift in acreage away from corn and into rice.

Global coarse grain trade for 2011/12 is raised slightly with increased foreign trade in barley and corn more than offsetting the reduction in US corn shipments. Barley imports are raised for Saudi Arabia and Syria with larger shipments expected from Ukraine and Russia. Corn exports are raised for Ukraine, Argentina, Brazil and EU-27. Corn exports are lowered for Canada and Paraguay. Global corn consumption for 2011/12 is lowered 7.3 million tons, mostly reflecting lower expected use in the United States. Foreign corn feeding and consumption are nearly unchanged. World corn ending stocks are projected up 2.9 million tons with increases in South America, Ukraine and EU-27 more than offsetting the reduction projected for the United States.

Oilseeds
US oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 92.4 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month. Soybean production is projected higher, partly offset by declines for peanuts and cottonseed. Soybean production for 2011/12 is projected at 3.085 billion bushels, up 29 million due to higher yields. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 165 million bushels, up 10 million as higher supplies are only partly offset by increased exports. Other changes for 2011/12 include reduced food use of soybean oil reflecting increased use of canola and palm oil, increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel and reduced food use for 2010/11.

Soybean crush for 2010/11 is increased five million bushels to 1.65 billion reflecting higher-than-expected crush reported for July. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 225 million bushels, down five million from last month. Other changes for 2010/11 include increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel and reduced food use. Soybean oil used for production of methyl ester was reported record high for July by the US Census Bureau. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 2.84 billion pounds, up slightly from last month.

Soybean and product prices are all projected higher for 2011/12. The US season-average soybean price is projected at $12.65 to $14.65 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range as higher corn prices provide support. Soybean meal prices are projected at $360 to $390 per short ton, up $5.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 55.5 to 59.0 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 453.0 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from last month. Production increases for soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower seed and cottonseed are only partly offset by lower peanut production. Soybean production is projected higher for the United States and India. India’s soybean production is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 10.5 million due to higher planted area. Canola production for Canada is increased 0.6 million tons to a record 13.2 million based on higher area and yield reported in the most recent report from Statistics Canada. Harvested area is projected record high despite excessive rainfall and flooding in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba that prevented some area from being planted. Canada’s canola production is also raised for both the 2009 and 2010 crops based on the same report. Other changes include higher sunflower seed production for EU-27, higher cottonseed production for China, lower cottonseed production for Pakistan and lower peanut production for India.

Rice
US rice production in 2011/12 is forecast at 190.9 million cwt, up 2.8 million from last month due entirely to an increase in yield. Harvested area is estimated at 2.62 million acres, down 20,000 acres. The average yield is estimated at a record 7,273 pounds per acre, up 159 pounds per acre from last month. Long-grain production is estimated at 119.2 million cwt, down 4.9 million from last month, and the smallest crop since 1996/97. Combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at a record 71.6 million, an increase of 7.7 million from last month.

All rice beginning stocks for 2011/12 are lowered 2.7 million cwt from last month to 48.4 million (rough-equivalent basis) based on USDA’s Rice Stocks report released on 26 August. The import projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 19.0 million as it is expected that more long-grain rice will be imported due to tighter domestic supplies.

Exports for 2011/12 are projected at 93.0 million cwt, down 4.0 million cwt from last month, and down 18.6 million from the revised 2010/11 estimate. Long-grain exports are lowered 5.0 million cwt from last month to 61.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain exports are raised 1.0 million to 32.0 million. The decrease in the export projection is due mostly to a much tighter supply situation but additionally to an expected increase in competition from South American exporters in Western Hemisphere long-grain markets. Long-grain exports to Iraq are also expected to be lower. Increased competition principally from Egypt is expected to reduce medium-grain exports to Libya. All rice ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 38.3 million cwt, up 5.1 million from last month but down 10.1 million from the revised 2010/11 stocks.

The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, up 80 cents per cwt on both ends of the range from last month compared to $11.10 per cwt for 2010/11. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $15.00 to $16.00 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $18.40 per cwt for 2010/11. The 2010/11 all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, up 80 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $12.70 per cwt for 2010/11. The increase in prices is due to both expected tighter domestic supplies, for long-grain, and higher global prices as a result of government policies in Thailand aimed at supporting domestic rice prices. Additionally, higher commodity prices in general will help to support rice prices.

Projected global 2011/12 rice supply and use are increased from last month. Global rice production is projected at a record 458.4 million tons, up 2.1 million tons from last month, primarily due to larger expected crops in Brazil, China, the Philippines and the United States. China’s 2011/12 rice crop is increased 1.0 million tons to 139.0 million, due mainly to an increase in the early rice crop. Brazil’s rice crop is raised nearly one million tons due to both an increase in area and expected yield. The recent surge in global prices accounts for the increase in planted area in Brazil from last month’s forecast. Global 2011/12 trade is nearly unchanged from last month. Global consumption is raised 0.7 million tons from a month ago due mostly to China. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 98.7 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month, and the largest stocks since 2002/03. Stocks are raised for Brazil, China, the Philippines and the United States.

Sugar
Projected US sugar supply for fiscal year 2011/12 is decreased 215,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower beginning stocks and production. Beet sugar production is lowered 175,000 tons based on lower forecast sugar beet production. Sugar use is unchanged.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

CAP Reforms Fail Europe's Farm Animals, Says CIWF
UK - Compassion in World Farming (CIWF) says it is horrified by the European Commission's failure to improve animal welfare in the proposals for CAP reform.
 

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) proposals that were officially revealed by the European Commission yesterday, fail to support farmers who want to introduce higher welfare systems on their farms.

Despite strong scientific evidence that industrial livestock production harms animal health and welfare and notwithstanding taxpayers’ belief that the CAP should help improve the well-being of farm animals, the Commission's proposals almost completely fail to address animal welfare.

Indeed the proposals seriously weaken the existing CAP measures that enable payments to be made to farmers who wish to attain high standards of animal welfare. One such measure (Article 68 of Pillar 1) has been disposed of altogether. The other measure (the Animal Welfare Payments in Pillar 2) has been diluted to the point where it may be of little value in practice. At present Animal Welfare Payments can be made for five to seven years, whereas under the proposal they can only be made for 'a renewable period of one year'. Farmers will be reluctant to incur the expense of moving to a new, higher welfare system if they may receive support for just one year.

Peter Stevenson, Compassion's Chief Policy Advisor says: "We are deeply disappointed that current provisions have been very substantially weakened. Under the Commission proposals for the CAP, after 2013 almost none of the €55 billion of CAP funds handed out each year will be used to help farmers move away from industrialised farming to more humane, higher welfare farming."

The Commission's proposals will now be considered by the European Parliament and the 27 Member States. Compassion in World Farming is calling on the Parliament and the Member States to strengthen the proposals so that a significant part of the CAP funds are used to help Europe's farmers move away from the inhumane, resource-hungry factory farms that blight so much of the EU livestock sector and instead to adopt high welfare extensive farming practices. These would benefit both animal welfare and other key CAP objectives including reduced pollution and use of water, enhanced soil quality, regeneration of biodiversity and improved human health.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Feed Outlook – October 2011
World coarse grain production in 2011/12 is projected to reach 1,136.3 million tons, up 5.1 million this month as increases in other countries swamp the decline in the US, according to the latest report from the USDA Economic Research Service.
 

Increased Corn Supplies Reduce Price Prospects
The 30 September Grain Stocks report issued by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) showed sharply higher-than-expected 1 September stocks for corn. Despite a 64-million-bushel reduction to 2011/12 forecast corn production this month with lower reported area, the 209-million-bushel gain in carry-in over the previous forecast boosts 2011/12 corn supplies, resulting in a 30-cent-per-bushel decline in the projected farm price. Increased US beginning stocks and increased foreign production combine to boost world coarse grain supplies 10 million tons this month. Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2011/12 are increased six million tons this month to 156 million, mostly on higher expected corn ending stocks in the United States. US corn ending stocks are still projected to be the lowest since 1995/96, and world corn stocks remain projected at a five-year low.


DOMESTIC OUTLOOK

Corn Carry-out Stocks for 2010/11 Higher Than Expected
The 30 September NASS Grain Stocks report indicated 1 September US corn stocks of 1,128 million bushels, an increase of 209 million bushels from the September WASDE forecast. Still, ending stocks for 2010/11 are 580 million bushels lower than the previous year. The stocks data and nearly final data for other domestic use and trade imply a fourth quarter feed and residual use of only 448 million bushels, the lowest quarterly corn feed use going back as far as comparable data are available (1975/76). However, annual feed and residual for 2010/11, at 4.80 billion bushels, is neither unusually large nor unusually small, coming in as the 17th largest in the last 35 years even as the use of distillers’ dried grains has slowed the direct use of corn for feed.

Because the feed and residual category includes residual use, statistical errors in other supply and demand measures show up in the residual usage. A number of factors could contribute to the exceptionally low fourth quarter feed and residual estimate, however, all such factors are speculative and not necessarily supportable by available data. Among possible factors that could explain the lower-than-expected fourth quarter feed and residual use would be (1) the impact of higher prices on usage, (2) early usage of new-crop 2011/12 corn, (3) tighter pipeline (in transit) supplies and (4) higher quality of 2010-crop corn compared with 2009-crop.

Although none of these potential explanations are definitive and even together may not fully explain all of the reduction year-to-year in feed and residual disappearance during the last half of the 2010/11 marketing year, these factors do merit some discussion.

High corn prices encourage less use and more efficient use. Cash bid prices for corn in Central Illinois were above $6 per bushel from mid-March through August, topping $7 per bushel several times over those months.


Some new-crop corn is harvested before 1 September each year and the increase in southern corn production in recent years has allowed for more harvesting ahead of the new crop year. Still, State-level harvest progress reports do not indicate as much early new-crop availability as last year or as in summer 2007, and only somewhat higher than during late-summer 2008 and 2009. New-crop corn use ahead of 1 September boosts 1 September stocks, not by their inclusion in reported stocks, which are for old-crop corn but by replacing old-crop corn in usage and allowing that old-crop corn to be counted in stocks.


Pipeline supplies, including corn in transit, may be difficult to measure and vary with levels of usage, including exports. The slow pace of September corn exports – down about 50 million bushels from the previous year – suggests that less corn than usual was in transit, leaving more corn in more visible storage positions.


Higher corn test-weights or other quality factors for 2010 crop corn could reduce the amount of corn needed to produce a unit of meat or gallon of ethanol. Available data to support year-to-year variations in corn quality are limited with test-weight data only available for inspected grain and no reliable data series available on actual corn-to-ethanol conversion rates. Also, higher feeding or ethanol conversion rates for 2010-crop corn would fail to fully explain the 2010/11 quarterly pattern of feed and residual use with higher usages year-to-year in the first and second quarters.
Acreage Reduction Reduces Feed Grain Production, Yields Steady
US feed grain production for 2011/12 is forecast at 326.2 million tons, down from 328.1 million predicted last month. The month-to-month decrease reflects reduced forecast production for corn and sorghum and smaller production estimates for barley and oats from the Small Grains 2011 Summary report. Planted area for the four grains is decreased 520,000 acres, and harvested for grain acres were decreased 553,000 acres this month. Yields per harvested acre for the four grains combined are unchanged at 3.56 metric tons. Beginning stocks in 2011/12 are raised to 32.3 million tons, based on the 30 September Grain Stocks report. Total 2011/12 feed grain supply is forecast at 360.6 million tons, up from 357.3 million last month and down from 380.5 million in 2010/11.

Total 2011/12 feed grain utilisation is projected at 336.1 million tons, down from 337.6 million projected last month and down from 348.2 million in 2010/11. The month-to month decline is entirely from lower corn exports. Lower sorghum exports were offset by an increase in feed and residual, leaving total sorghum use unchanged. Total projected feed grain ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 4.9 million tons to 24.5 million, mainly reflecting higher carry-in from the 2010/11 crop.


Feed Use
On a September-August marketing year basis for 2011/12, US feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat is projected to total 128.3 million tons, down 1.5 million from the revised total of 129.8 million tons in 2010/11. Corn is estimated to account for 93 per cent of feed and residual use in 2011/12, down from 94 per cent in 2010/11.

The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) in 2011/12 is 94.2 million units, up from 92.9 million in 2010/11. Feed and residual per GCAU in 2011/12 is estimated at 1.36 tons, down from 1.40 in 2010/11. In the index components, GCAUs are increased for beef, dairy, pork and poultry.

USDA’s 19 September Milk Production report indicated milk production in the 23 major producing States during August totalled 15.3 billion pounds, up 2.2 per cent from August 2010. Production per cow averaged 1,810 pounds for August, 18 pounds above last year. However, the number of milk cows on farms increased by 102,000 head from August 2009 to 8.47 million. The milk production forecast for 2011 is raised as the dairy herd has been expanding at a more rapid rate and milk per cow during the summer increased more rapidly than expected. However, the forecast for 2012 is reduced as forecast lower milk prices and weakening milk-feed ratios increase the pace of later-year declines in cow numbers.

US hog breeding inventory in the third quarter of 2011 was at 5.81 million head, up one per cent from last year and up slightly from the previous quarter according to USDA’s 28 September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Market hogs inventory, at 66.6 million head, was up one per cent from last year. As the result of lower market inventory, lower slaughter and slower growth in slaughter weights, the 2011 pork production forecast is reduced. Intended farrowings from December 2011 to February 2012, at 2.87 million sows, are down slightly from the same period a year earlier but up slightly from December 2009-February 2010 based on the report. Pork production for 2012 is raised from last month as increased pigs per litter support a larger pig crop and increased supplies of slaughter hogs into 2012 despite steady numbers of sows farrowing.

USDA’s Broiler Hatchery report on 7 October indicated that broiler-type egg sets and chicks placed have been decreasing. Cumulative placements of broiler flock are down seven per cent from the same period a year earlier. Broiler production is reduced as lower egg sets point to a sharp reduction in later-year bird slaughter. However, continued relatively heavy bird weights result in an increase in expected third-quarter production. Table egg production is increased but is partly offset by lower expected broiler hatching egg production.

Egg-type chicks hatched and pullet chicks for future hatchery supply have been increasing based on USDA’s 22 September Chickens and Eggs report. Table egg production is increased.

USDA’s 15 September Turkey Hatchery report indicated that during August 2011, turkey poults hatched were up four per cent from the year earlier but net poults placed were 100,000 below August 2010. The 2011 turkey production projection is 15 million pounds higher than last month’s but the turkey meat forecast for 2012 is unchanged from last month as lower feed prices stabilise turkey production.

USDA’s 23 September Cattle on Feed report indicated that placements and marketings of feed cattle during August both increased five per cent above a year earlier. The increase in beef production is largely due to higher expected cow slaughter as drought conditions in much of the Southern Plains and high hay prices will likely keep slaughter high.

Minor Changes Made to 2010/11 Crop Year
The following changes are made to the 2010/11 balance sheets:

Corn: feed and residual use is lowered 197 million bushels to 4,803 million this month based on 1 September stocks; food, seed and industrial (FSI) use is lowered 15 million bushels to 6,415 million, reflecting lower-than-expected 4th quarter HFCS consumption due to reduced demand for soft drinks and small decreases in some other FSI uses; corn exports are unchanged from September at 1,835 million bushels; ending stocks are raised 208 million bushels to 1,128 million bushels, based on the 1 September stocks estimate. The farm price per bushel was lowered $0.02 per bushel to $5.18.

Sorghum: feed and residual is lowered 0.8 million bushels to 124.2 million due to reduced ending stocks of 27.5 million, based on the 1 September stocks estimate; and the farm price per bushel was lowered $0.13 to $5.02.

Barley: feed and residual use was raised slightly to 49.8 million bushels due to lower ending stocks.

Oats: feed and residual use was lowered slightly to 102.2 million bushels on a 24,000-bushel increase in ending stocks.

2011/12 Corn Crop Slips on Lower Harvested Acreage and Yields Steady
US corn production is forecast at 12,433 million bushels for 2011/12, down 64 million bushels from last month. Yields are unchanged and forecast harvested acreage was reduced 452,000 acres to 83.9 million. As forecast, this year’s production would be the fourth highest on record behind 2009, 2007, and 2010. Beginning stocks are raised to 1,128 million bushels, up 208 million from last month based on reported 1 September stocks.

The 1 October corn objective yield data indicate the second highest number of ears per acre on record for the combined 10 objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin), only behind the record year of 2009. Record-high ear counts are forecast in Iowa, Illinois, Ohio and Wisconsin.

 


Feed and residual use is unchanged at 4,700 million bushels, reflecting the effects of relatively high corn prices. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 1,600 million as a result of increased export competition, especially from the Ukraine. Corn used for ethanol production in 2011/12 was unchanged this month at 5,000 million bushels, based on anticipated fuel demand. Total utilisation is projected at 12,710 million bushels, down 50 million from last month and 343 million below 2010/11.

Ending stocks are raised sharply this month by 194 million bushels. Nevertheless, at a projected 866 million bushels, 2011/12 ending stocks would be the lowest since 1995/96 (426 million bushels). Projected stocks drop to less than 25 days of expected use. Increased supplies due to higher carry-in result in lower expected corn prices, with the 2011/12 forecast price reduced 30 cents on both ends of the range to $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel. These price forecasts are still far above the record 2010/11 actual price of $5.18 per bushel.

Sorghum Production Cut
US production is forecast at 244 million bushels, down 294,000 bushels from last month and 101 million below last year. Based on updated administrative information, acreage changes were made in several States. Planted area is estimated at 5.5 million acres, up 122,000 acres from the previous forecast and up 63,000 from 2010/11. Harvested area is forecast at 4.4 million acres, down 44,000 acres from the previous forecast and 376,000 acres below last year. If realised, this will be the lowest harvested acreage on record since 1936. Based on 1 October conditions, yield is forecast at 55.0 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushels from September and down 16.8 bushels from last year. Sustained hot weather and drought has affected major producing regions. With a one-million-bushel increase in beginning stocks, total supply for 2011/12 is projected at 271 million bushels, down 491,000 from last month, reflecting increased carry-in partly offset by lower production.

 


Projected total utilisation is 245 million bushels, unchanged from last month and down 114 million from 2010/11. Feed and residual use is expected to be 10 million bushels higher this month and forecast export demand slips 10 million bushes as the pace of export sales has been slow. Exports are expected to total 100 million bushels, down from 150 million in 2011/12. Ending stocks for 2011/12 were raised 0.5 million bushels this month to 26 million.

The expected sorghum season-average price was lowered $0.30 on both ends of the range to $6.00-$7.00 per bushel, compared to the revised $5.02 per bushel for 2010/11. This sharp year-to-year increase in expected price reflects the smaller corn and sorghum crops and tighter feed grain supplies.