WorldWatch:

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Philippine feed production to fall by 23%
[17 August 2010] Philippine feed production might fall by 23% for the rest of this year as lack of demand for animal feeds have led producers to cut back on production to minimise any losses. A source from the Philippine Association of Feed Millers Inc (PAFMI) said there has been weak demand from the livestock and poultry sector, particularly the hog industry whose output has not gone up and is likely to even fall as piglet production is also down. Only the poultry sector which has been showing good performance, said the source, has been helping keep the feed industry on its toes. If demand does not pick up, it is unlikely that local feedmillers will import more raw materials this year, even with the projected drop in local corn production for the year, which is expected to reach only 6.8 million tonnes.Corn imports are not expected to exceed more than 80,099 tonnes for 2010, much lower than the 344,945 tonnes brought in last year.

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San Miguel near to closing deal on Pure Foods
[18 August 2010] San Miguel Corporation (SMC) is close to reaching a deal for the sale of its 49% stake in San Miguel Pure Foods Co Inc (SMPFC) to the consortium made up of the Campos family and Century Pacific Group for more than USD 1 billion, a report by Bloomberg said. However, SMC President Ramon Ang declined to comment on the matter, saying only that negotiations are still under way. SMPFC holds SMC’s processed meats, poultry, livestock, feeds and dairy businesses, and is the current leader in the local market’s poultry and processed meat sectors.
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Jollibee to build plant in China
[17 August 2010] Philippines based Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC) recently formed a joint venture with Singapore’s Hua Xia Harvest Holdings Pte Ltd to build its first commissary in China. The JV will set up Jollibee Foods Processing Pte Ltd, which will be 70% owned by JFC with the remainder held by Hua Xia. Both companies will invest USD 7.37 million for the new facility, which is expected to become operational within 2011. To be located in Shucheng County in Anhui Province it will initially supply Yonghe King stores in Beijing. JFC currently has 146 Yonghe King outlets in China. Earlier this year the company announced that it will spend PHP 600 million (USD 13.22 million) for 60 new stores in China. 

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Jollibee 1st half income up 9.6%
[19 August 2010] Despite a slowing down in its profits for the 2nd quarter this year, leading Philippine fast food chain Jollibee Food Corporation (JFC) still reported a net income of PHP 1.43 billion (USD 31.73 million) for the first six months of 2010, up 9.6% year on year thanks to expansion and higher sales. Systemwide sales, which include sales from both company-owned and franchised stores, grew 9.5% to PHP 33.91 billion (USD 750.89 million) in the first half. JFC Chief Financial Officer Ysmael Baysa said the company’s sluggish showing in the 2nd quarter was due to foreign exchange losses.

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Pure Foods sale halted
[20 August 2010] San Miguel Corporation (SMC) has decided to halt the sale of its food unit, San Miguel Pure Foods Co Inc, after failing to agree with bidders on the amount of shares to be sold, various reports said. In a statement, SMC President Ramon Ang said that “the final bidders had sought 100 percent ownership,' however, the company is only interested in selling a minority stake (49%) of its shares in Pure Foods at this time. Several reports have named the bidders to be Universal Robina Corporation and the consortium of the Campos family and Century Pacific Group of Companies.

[mikey]

 Australian beef exports to Asia continue to climb
[23 August 2010] Australian beef exports to South East Asia and Greater China during July jumped 18% to total 13,231 tonnes swt, lifting shipments to the region over the calendar year to July by 3%, to 71,062 tonnes swt. Strong demand has maintained Australian beef exports to the region at historically high levels. Demand for high-valued beef in Southeast Asia and Greater China continued over the January to July period, as chilled shipments increased 7% and grainfed beef volume jumped 49% on a year ago, to total 7,742 tonnes swt and 5,455 tonnes swt, respectively. Dominating exports to Southeast Asia and Greater China during the calendar year to July were volumes of manufacturing beef (36% of total beef exports), shin shank (17%), blade (8%) and knuckle (7%) that were mainly sent to Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. The higher volumes sent to Malaysia, Hong Kong and China also reflected growing demand for beef in these markets. 
 
 
 

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Freight rates surge on demand
[25 August 2010] Freight rates have surged to a two-month high as traders scramble for grain imports and Chinese steelmakers increase demand. The Baltic Dry Index of shipping costs for dry bulk commodities – including grains, iron ore, coal and cement – has risen 67% in just over a month after it slid to its lowest since early 2009. The BDI’s sharp rally this month comes after Russia imposed a ban on grain exports, forcing consumers in the Middle East and north Africa to seek supplies from further afield and so increasing demand for freight. The rate for a transatlantic grain-carrying Panamax vessel is up 17.5% since the start of August at USD 26,800 a day. Traders expect a seasonal increase in demand for ore and grain shipments to boost freight rates into the fourth quarter. Russia’s export ban has put pressure on the US to supply food and feed grains.

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Meat prices set to rise
[27 August 2010] Fresh from the swine flu epidemic, meat prices are due for another shift. Rising wheat prices may make animals more expensive to rear. Experts are predicting meat shortages and prices to increase. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation predicted that prices across the globe will rise faster than expected this year at 3%.

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San Miguel to fold Monterey Foods into animal feed and poultry unit
[2 September 2010] San Miguel Corporation is seeking to fold its meat retailing unit, Monterey Foods Corp, into its animal feeds and poultry unit, San Miguel Foods Inc. However the move is still to be approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission. In its filing, San Miguel said the merger would involve “the transfer of the assets and liabilities of Monterey Foods in favour of SMFI, in exchange for the net assets of Monterey Foods worth PHP 84.53 million (USD 1.87 million).” SMFI, which will be the surviving entity, will pay stockholders of Monterey Foods for the merger.

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Argentina Sees Vast Potential for Agriculture
ARGENTINA - Jorge Correa, Head of Rabobank’s Representative Office in Buenos Aires, is happy to talk about the Food & Agri opportunities for Rabobank in Argentina.



“Argentina is a vast country, rich in natural resources, blessed with good soil and excellent weather,” says Mr Correa. Twenty per cent of GDP is agriculture related, making the agricultural sector in Argentina important not just for Rabobank, but for the world economy. “As the land available for agricultural production around the world becomes increasingly scarce, yield will be key to maintaining food supplies in the future. And few agricultural economies can compete with the yields obtained by Argentinean farmers.”

Rabobank does not have a banking licence in Argentina, but does have a team of twenty-eight staff in its Representative Office in Buenos Aires. “Ninety per cent of our portfolio is Food and Agribusiness, providing trade and commodity finance services to large primary producers, processors and exporters involved in grains and oilseeds.” And when Jorge Correa says ’large’, he’s referring to farms ranging from 100,000 to 1 million hectares.

While Food and Agribusiness and Trade and Commodity finance account for the lion’s share of business, Rabobank is also increasing its participation in the growing renewable energy sector in Argentina, mainly in the biodiesel and bioethanol sectors.

Argentina, Brazil and the US account for 80 per cent of world soybean production. Jorge Correa: “As the world’s largest exporter of soy meals and soy oil Argentina plays a key role in supplying the increasing demand for soy proteins. Soy oil is the second most consumed vegetable oil in the world after palm oil. And soy meal is the best and the largest ingredient in protein contents used in the animal feed industry.”

In the August 2010 update on Agricultural Commodities Rabobank analysts state that soybean demand from China is almost insatiable, despite record soybean production this year in both the U.S and South America. Jorge Correa: “The total value of the soy industry was estimated at USD 110 billion in 2009, divided across soy oil (33 per cent) and soy meals (67 per cent). And there’s still plenty of room for growth.”

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China inflation accelerates, agri prices surge on speculation
[10 September 2010] Inflationary expectations in China are speeding up as agricultural product prices continue to rise driven by speculations as well as unfavorable weather this year. It is an arduous task keep inflation within the 3% target, said Fang Yan, deputy director of the rural economy division from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). Prices of some agricultural products began to surge this year at record speed, with the garlic, mung bean, ginger prices spiking almost tenfold compared to the beginning of 2010. CPI rose 3.3% in July year-on-year boosted by soaring food prices. The rise in land costs,excess funds for agricultural, unfavorable weather  as well as structural or regional shortage of certain products encouraged speculation. Farmers however, have not benefited from these hikes, Fang Yan said.

[mikey]

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate - September 2010
The forecast for 2011 has been reduced as higher feed prices encourage cattle producers to keep cattle on forage longer and tempers pork, broiler, and turkey production gains, according to the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.


Livestock, Dairy and Poultry
Total US meat production forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are reduced slightly from last month. The forecast for 2010 is reduced as lower pork and broiler production more than offset an increase in beef production. The 2011 forecast is reduced as higher feed prices encourage cattle producers to keep cattle on forage longer and tempers pork, broiler, and turkey production gains. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on 24 September and will provide an indication of sow farrowing intentions into early 2011. Egg production forecasts for 2010 are adjusted to reflect a revision in second-quarter production but the 2011 forecast is unchanged.

Beef imports are reduced for 2010 and 2011 as imports have been lower than expected. Export forecasts for beef are raised on continuing strong sales to a number of markets. Pork and poultry trade forecasts are unchanged from last month.

Livestock and poultry prices for 2010 are raised but forecasts for 2011 cattle and hog prices are unchanged. The broiler and turkey price forecasts for 2011 are raised slightly on expected tightness in supplies. Egg prices for 2010 are forecast higher due to the recent spike in third-quarter prices, but the forecast for 2011 is unchanged.

Forecast milk production for 2010 and 2011 is raised from last month. Producers continue to add cows to the herd and inventories are forecast to increase into mid-2011. The rate of growth in milk per cow is also increased from last month. Fat basis export forecasts for 2010 are raised on strong sales of butterfat and cheese, but 2011 exports are lowered. Skim-solids exports for 2010 and 2011 are forecast higher than last month. Imports are reduced from last month due to higher US production and strong demand in other importing countries. Ending stocks for 2011 are increased as US production is forecast higher.

Strong demand for cheese and tight supplies of butter support higher forecast prices for 2010 and 2011. Stronger demand is forecast to absorb most of the increased production although prices are expected to be tempered during the latter part of 2011. Price forecasts for nonfat dry milk (NDM) are raised for 2010, but the 2011 forecast is unchanged from last month as increased supplies limit price gains. The whey price forecast is unchanged. Both Class III and Class IV price forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are raised due to the higher product prices. The all milk price is forecast to average $16.25 to $16.45 per cwt for 2010 and $15.85 to $16.85 per cwt for 2011.

Wheat
US wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected lower this month with higher expected world demand for US wheat. Strong early season sales and reduced supplies in EU-27, particularly of higher quality wheat, support an improved outlook for US exports. Wheat exports are projected 50 million bushels higher with larger expected shipments of Hard Red Winter, Hard Red Spring, and White wheat. Projected ending stocks are lowered by the same amount to 902 million bushels. At the projected level, stocks would remain the second highest in more than a decade. The 2010/11 season-average farm price is projected at $4.95 to $5.65 per bushel, compared with $4.70 to $5.50 last month.

Global wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected down 0.7 million tons as higher carryin mostly offsets a 2.7-million-ton reduction in world output. Much of the offset is explained by Canada, where beginning stocks are increased 1.5 million tons, as reported by Statistics Canada, and production is increased by 2.0 million tons. These changes mostly offset lower production in Russia and EU-27. Production for Russia is lowered 2.5 million tons based on the latest harvest results for the drought-affected central growing areas in the Volga and Urals Federal Districts. EU-27 production is lowered 2.4 million tons with the largest reductions for Hungary and Romania where heavy summer rains reduced yields. Smaller reductions in a number of other member countries also reduce EU-27 production. Although the reduction for Germany is small, persistent and heavy August rains have reduced supplies of high quality milling wheat. Other production changes include a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Belarus and a 0.4-million-ton increase for Morocco.

World wheat trade for 2010/11 is raised with global exports projected 1.4 million tons higher. Export shifts among countries largely reflect availability of supplies and increased competition from North America. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Canada and 1.4 million tons for the United States. Exports are also raised 0.5 million tons each for Iran and Kazakhstan. A 0.5-million-ton increase in Russia exports reflects larger-than-expected shipments during early August, before implementation of the export ban on August 15. These increases more than offset a 3.0-million-ton reduction for EU-27 and a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Australia. EU-27 exports are lowered with reduced supplies and increased competition from Canada. Logistical constraints are expected to limit exports from Australia.

World wheat imports for 2010/11 are raised with increases for Russia and Nigeria. Imports for Russia are raised 1.4 million tons as imports from regional suppliers support domestic usage, particularly for feeding. World wheat consumption is lowered 3.8 million tons with lower consumption in EU-27, Russia, and Kazakhstan outweighing increases for Pakistan, Canada, and Nigeria. Wheat feeding is lowered 2.0 million tons for EU-27 with imported coarse grains expected to partly replace wheat in livestock and poultry rations. Global ending stocks are projected 3.0 million tons higher with increases for EU-27, Canada, and Australia. Ending stocks are lowered for Pakistan and Russia.

Coarse Grains
Projected US feed grain supplies for 2010/11 are lower this month with lower carryin and reduced production for corn and sorghum. Beginning stocks for corn are projected 40 million bushels lower with higher 2009/10 corn use for ethanol and a small increase in exports. Corn production for 2010/11 is forecast at 13,160 million bushels, down 205 million, but still the largest crop on record. The national average yield is forecast at 162.5 bushels per acre, down 2.5 bushels. The largest reductions in forecast yields are for the eastern Corn Belt, which account for more than half of the reduction in total output.

Domestic corn use for 2010/11 is lowered 100 million bushels with lower expected feed and residual use as higher prices trim feeding demand and the smaller crop reduces residual disappearance. Projected exports are raised 50 million bushels with rising world demand for coarse grains, particularly corn. US corn ending stocks are expected to decline to 1.1 billion bushels, down 196 million bushels. At this level, 2010/11 carryout would be the lowest since 2003/04. Stocks as a per centage of total use would be the lowest since 1995/96. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.00 to $4.80 per bushel, compared with $3.50 to $4.10 last month.

Other 2010/11 feed grains changes include lower projected ending stocks for sorghum and oats. Sorghum production is forecast 7 million bushels lower. Sorghum exports are raised 10 million bushels with stronger world demand for coarse grains. Sorghum feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels. Oats imports are lowered 10 million bushels with lower expected production in Canada.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2010/11 are projected down 8.7 million tons with reduced foreign and US production. Most of the foreign reductions this month are in EU-27 and FSU-12 countries. A 10.3-million-ton reduction in world coarse grain production for 2010/11 is partly offset by larger corn beginning stocks for Brazil with a 1.8-million-ton increase in 2009/10 corn production. Lower US and EU-27 corn production account for more than half of the reduction in 2010/11 global coarse grain output. EU-27 corn production is reduced 1.2 million tons with lower reported area and yields for France and Germany and lower reported yields for Italy, Austria, and Spain. World barley production is lowered 2.0 million tons with reductions for Russia, EU-27, Belarus, and Morocco. World oats production is reduced 0.9 million tons with lower production for EU-27, Canada, and Belarus. Lower rye production in EU-27 and Belarus lowers world output 1.0 million tons.

Global coarse grain trade is increased this month with US corn exports raised 1.3 million tons. A 0.5-million-ton reduction for EU-27 corn exports is offset by a 0.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine. Corn imports are raised 2.0 million tons for EU-27 as corn partly replaces wheat in feeding. Russia corn imports are raised 0.7 million tons helping to offset reduced supplies of feed barley. Global corn consumption is lowered as reduced prospects for corn feeding in the United States and Ukraine more than offset higher expected corn feeding in EU-27, Russia, Mexico, and Canada. Global corn ending stocks are projected 3.6 million tons lower.

Oilseeds
US oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 104.8 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.483 billion bushels, up 50 million from last month based on an increase in the projected yield to a record 44.7 bushels per acre. Production of peanuts and cottonseed are also raised this month.

Soybean exports for 2010/11 are increased 50 million bushels to 1.485 billion reflecting strong early season sales and a projected increase in global import demand, especially for China. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, down 10 million from last month as higher export demand more than offsets the increased supply.

Soybean exports for 2009/10 are projected at a record 1.495 billion bushels, up 25 million from last month reflecting strong shipments in the final weeks of the marketing year. The increase is partly offset with a lower residual, leaving ending stocks projected at 150 million bushels, down 10 million. Other changes for 2009/10 include reduced use of soybean oil for biodiesel and increased soybean oil exports. Season ending soybean oil stocks are projected record high at 3.21 billion pounds.

Prices for soybeans and products are all raised this month, supported by strong prices for corn and wheat. The US season-average soybean price range for 2010/11 is projected at $9.15 to $10.65 per bushel, up 65 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $270 to $310 per short ton, up $20 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 37.5 to 41.5 cents per pound, up 1 cent on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 440.6 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 254.9 million tons, up 1.2 million mainly due to a higher production forecast for the United States. China soybean production is reduced 0.2 million tons to 14.4 million based on lower yields. Global rapeseed production is projected higher as increased production for Canada more than offsets reduced crops for Russia and Ukraine. Other changes include reduced peanut and cottonseed production for China, reduced cottonseed production for Pakistan, increased cottonseed production for Australia, and reduced palm oil and palm kernel production for Indonesia.

Global oilseed trade for 2010/11 is raised 3.8 million tons to 108.7 million. China soybean imports are raised 3 million tons to 55 million, up from a revised 50 million in 2009/10. Imports are raised to reflect increased protein meal consumption and higher soybean stocks, now projected to reach 15.5 million tons. Global oilseed stocks are projected lower mainly due to reduced soybean stocks in the United States and South America.

[mikey]

Friday, September 17, 2010Print This Page
Science - the Answer to Feeding the World?
The theme of this year's JSR Technical Conference was Science – the Key to Feeding the World, writes Jackie Linden, who attended the event at the University of Nottingham earlier this week.

 

"The theme for our 21st Conference is 'Science – the Key to Feeding the World'," said Tim Rymer, chairman of JSR Genetics, in his introduction to the event. "As a science-based business, it is obvious to us that scientific solutions have the potential to ensure we are able to feed a world population of nine billion by 2050. There are already another 200,000 mouths to feed since we awoke yesterday morning."

He explained that over 21 years, JSR's annual conference has become a key event in the UK pig industry calendar, evolving from a scientific and academic base to one that still keeps science at its core but is based on practical reality.

"We never want to be far away from the customer or consumer and the money," he added.

Also changing over time have been the 'hot' topics – from foot and mouth disease three years ago, high feed prices two years ago and H1N1 flu last year. Today, some producers are facing high feed prices again, which has more to do with speculation on the markets than supply and demand in the wheat market, Mr Rymer said.

"Animal feed efficiency is part of the solution. We all want animals that grow fast and lean and eat very little. We all know what effect 0.1 FCR will have on our pig business but if this was on a global scale, how much less land would be needed to feed the same population of animals?" he asked.

Animals that grow fast and efficiently produce less CO2 equivalents, which is good for the environment. Mr Rymer explained that JSR's investment in the Decoy finishing facility will not only be a good advertisement for the the company's sire lines but also increase the focus on feed efficiency. Manure produced by the facility will both reduce fertiliser costs and increase yields.

The previous evening, Richard Fuller gave the company a presentation on the Stabiliser Cattle project, which has many parallels to the pig side of the business, said Mr Rymer. The Stabiliser is a low-cost, easy calving suckler cow, with exceptional eating quality. The company has recently signed a memorandum of understanding with retailer, Morrisons, to set up a supply chain based around the breed.

"Building a brand that is consistent and trusted is hard work but it is a good example of putting science into practice and retaining the trust of the consumer as well," said Mr Rymer, adding that Mr Fuller's company also recognises that feed efficiency is crucial in staying ahead.

The work JSR is doing on eating quality with beef under the Givendale Prime brand and pork with our Crackling Farm Pork initiative will benefit from the Yorkshire Wolds Cookery School, which opens for business at the end of October, said Mr Rymer.

Emphasising the international scope of JSR's business, Mr Rymer welcomed a delegation from Cotswold Japan, which operates the JSR franchise there, as well as the first group of Chinese technicians who are starting a four-month training programme at JSR in preparation for the stocking of the company's China Nucleus in 2011. JSR is also currently stocking the Canadian Nucleus, added Mr Rymer.

Two other areas in which JSR has invested are Technical Support and Sales. The company operates a joint venture with Paul Wright in international markets as JSR Checkmate, and this organisation has recently agreed to manage all the Technical Support for JSR.

"We have also appointed two Sales Trainees Laura Russell and Mark Woodall," added Mr Rymer before introducing the Conference speakers.

'Benefits from breeding in the next decade' was the title taken by the first presenter, Frédéric Grimaud, president of Groupe Grimaud, who was followed by JSR Genetics' own director of Research & Genetics, Dr Grant Walling, who discussed 'The Science of Feeding the World'. Professor Gareth Edward Jones from Bangor University gave a new interpretation on carbon emissions in agriculture and how they can be reduced. In the final session, Steve Murrells, chief operating office of Tulip Ltd spoke on 'From farm to fork in a changing Britain' and Alastair Butler explained the marketing story behind Blythburgh Free Range Pork.

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Producers profit with rising price
[28 September 2010] Prices for food and other soft commodities have been climbing and analysts say that producers in Asia are poised to profit as demand from emerging markets continues to grow. A strategist at Nomura said: “We believe that soft commodities will outperform base and precious metals in the future.” Wheat and corn futures prices in Chicago recently jumped to multi-month highs, with wheat futures trading at a high of USD 8 per bushel and corn futures climbing past USD 5 per bushel, both for the first time since the second half of 2008. In this scenario producers will reap the benefit but food companies, those that sell to consumers, will have profits squeezed. Higher feed prices may also show increases in future meat and poultry prices.

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How Geneticists Will Help Feed Nine Billion People
The theme of the 21st JSR Genetics Technical Conference earlier this month was Science – the Key to Feeding the World. Jackie Linden, reports on some of the event highlights, focussing in this article on the contribution of genetics and breeders.

 

The focus of this year's JSR Genetics Technical Conference was on some of the ways in which science can feed the world. As the company's chairman, Tim Rymer, explained in his introduction: "As a science-based business, it is obvious to us that scientific solutions have the potential to ensure we are able to feed a world population of nine billion people by 2050. There are already another 200,000 mouths to feed since we awoke yesterday morning."

Benefits from Breeding in the Next Decade


Frédéric GrimaudFrédéric Grimaud, president of breeding company, Groupe Grimaud, opened his presentation by the organisation of his company. It is the second biggest multi-species animal genetics company in the world, he said and is 80 per cent owned by the Grimaud family and 20 per cent by a number of financial partners. Annual turnover is around €200 million and there are 1,450 employees worldwide.

The company has two main business branches. The Animal Genetic Selection division comprises four groups: ducks and geese, guinea fowl and pigeons (Grimaud Frèrer); broilers (Hubbard); layers (Novogen) and pigs (Newsham Choice Genetics). The Biopharmacy division is split into two main groups: Vivalis, which covers vaccines, proteins and pharma molecules, and Filavie for vaccines, bacterial flora and analysis. A further group, Hypharm, has links to both divisions and covers serum, pharma proteins, rabbits and SPF animal breeding.

Mr Grimaud said that feeding a growing world population will become increasingly challenging, and that population growth exerts strong pressure on the environment. "If we break the balance, we won't be able to produce sufficient food," he said.

He went on to outline 10 keys for a better understanding of the situation.

"A quick look in the mirror shows tremendous progress in the last decade, mainly thanks to genetics," he said, showing the improvements in the annual output of meat from parent stock in the last 20 years from pigs, rabbits and poultry, as well as the improvements in feed conversion ratio. Breeding is a fixed-cost, long term business, he emphasised, saying that the current genetics 'pipeline' will produce the commercial generation of animals in 2013-2014.

There are great opportunities for a multi-species approach, Mr Grimaud believes, seeing many synergies in his company is terms of breeding programmes for different species such as chickens, pigs and rabbits.

"Animal welfare is becoming a main challenge," he said. He sees great importance in breeding for commercial conditions, taking into account their natural and social behaviour to develop less aggressive and more robust animals.

The integration of the Marker Assisted Selection (MAS) in the BLUP is improving the accuracy of the selection, Mr Grimaud said, showing the spurt in estimated breeding value (EBV) since the introduction of MAS. Meat water-holding capacity and marbling/tenderness are traits that have been especially responsive to the technique, and it could prove to be the first effective technique for increased resistance to pathogens.


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"If we break the balance, we won't be able to produce sufficient food" 

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On a related theme, he believes that biotech tools have the potential to permit the revolution of the Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Work on an experimental scale has proved the concept and the technique may, in future, be used to improve disease resistance.

However, quantitative selection remains the basis of breeding programmes, said Mr Grimaud, showing the improvements in broiler 42-day weight and feed conversion over the last decade.

He stressed the need to maintain genetic diversity in order to satisfy different market segments.

At the breeding level, health status and risk mitigation are key factors to secure the industry in Mr Grimaud's opinion. His company has developed separate R&D centres, continuous monitoring of health status in internal labs and multiplication centres near to commercial zones to both secure local customers and offer multi-source supply in case of a ban resulting from a case of a major disease outbreak in one area.

Environmental friendly production is becoming another new challenge, said Mr Grimaud. Citing examples from the broiler sector, he explained that a better FCR and drier litter mean less manure, and new developments in nutrition both improve nutrient digestibility and offer protection against pathogens.

Mr Grimaud closed his presentation by saying that with so many risks and so many variables, the future is not yet written but these unknowns offer many opportunities for breeding companies to make a difference.

The Science of Feeding the World


Dr Grant WallingDr Grant Walling, director of Research and Genetics for JSR Genetics, outlined the challenges by saying, "Today's 6.5 billion people in the world today is forecast to rise to nine billion by 2050. And further, due to changing eating patterns, those nine billion people are likely to eat enough food for 11 billion people due to the increasing demands of the middle classes in more populous countries such as China and India."

One solution could be to farm more land, Dr Walling suggested. We currently farm 1.4 billion hectares; the FAO has identified more than 1.6 billion hectares that could be used for farming (mainly in Latin America and Africa). However, the Royal Society is concerned over the damage to ecosystems and biodiversity.

Another solution would be to eat less meat, he said. However, this fails to address the use of marginal land (especially for beef and lamb production), that farm animals eat large amounts of agricultural and food by-products as well as the need of wool and leather. And who should reduce their meat intake, asked Dr Walling? Should it be those in countries that already eat a lot of meat or those in developing countries where meat intake is increasing along with growing income?

The best solution, he proposed, is for agriculture to produce more with less resource (water, fertiliser, pesticides). This can only be achieved through improved science and technology and investment in agricultural research, which only currently makes up five per cent of world R&D spend, Dr Walling said.

Genetic technologies will be an important part of the improvement in efficiency and output, he predicted.

"Quantitative genetics works," he said, showing the continuing upward trend in oil content of maize selected over many generations, as well as the increasing gap between maize lines selected for low- or high protein content.

Going on to show the performance of today's pig compared to one of the 1960s, Dr Walling presented his estimate of the likely performance of pigs in 2050, when the human population is expected to reach the nine-billion mark, assuming linear improvements in each parameter.

However, the improvements take a great forward leap if molecular genetics is employed. Using marker chips in market assisted (MA) selection with BLUP, the progress is much faster (see table).

Quantitative selection success: performance of the modern pig compared to one in the 1960s and the potential of new techniques 
  1960s 2010 2050
(linear improvement) 2050
(with MA-BLUP)
Pigs weaned per sow 14 21 28 31.5
Lean % 40 55 70 70
FCR 3.0 2.2 1.4 1.28
Lean meat per tonne feed (kg) 85 170 255 268
Data for 1960s and modern pigs from Van der Steen et al., 2005

Progress in producing more with fewer resources could also be achieved by making changes, either to indices or to traits, said Dr Walling. He gave the example of dairy breeding, where three different traits are used: profitability, low-carbon and welfare, where the focus is on production traits, efficiency and longevity, respectively. For pigs, the focus generally remains mainly on profitability but JSR is increasingly paying attention to lifetime performance, which takes into account sow mortality and thus impacts replacement rate. Meanwhile, a greater emphasis on feed efficiency may detract somewhat from growth rate but it is more relevant with rising feed costs and reduces environmental benefits.


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"We need to take the public with us" 

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Dr Walling also highlighted the potential benefits of other production changes, including the use of split-sex feeding. Work from Harper Adams University College sponsored by JSR shows that the best overall performance was achieved by boars on a much higher level of lysine (1.12g/kg) than gilts (0.89g/kg).

So far, the breeding index has not been influence by welfare because of insufficient financial reward and conflicts with climate change goals, he said.

New embryonic technologies would also help the industry to produce more with less, Dr Walling said, as he described semen freezing, and embryo transfer.

"These technologies will become more common by 2050 but we need to take the public with us," he said.

Summing up, Dr Walling said: "Genetic improvement will continue to deliver annual benefits. However difficult challenges need to be addressed with breeding goals for production, profitability, climate change and animal welfare.

"Other genetic technologies must be allowed to penetrate the market without excessive bureaucratic legislation (GM and cloning) but scientists must be realistic with the claims and allow the consumer to make informed choices."

[mikey]

WMC REPORT - Sustainable Production for Global Meat Industry
ARGENTINA - Global meat demand is expected to grow by between one and two per cent during the remainder of this decade, writes TheMeatSite senior editor Chris Harris from the World Meat Congress in Buenos Aires.



Speaking at the opening of the congress, outgoing president of the International Meat Secretariat, Paddy Moore said that the prospects for the global industry are to see international trade in meat grow despite the occasional setbacks through animal diseases, food safety scares and issues surrounding market access.

He said that the industry had to prospect of feeding a growing global population with 80 million extra people to feed each year.

In the meat sectors Mr Moore said that the pig and poultry industries are expected to see the greatest growth outperforming lamb and beef.

He said the growth in trade and demand is going to present challenges to the industry in particular in gearing up in terms of greater efficiencies, higher productivity and innovation.

He said the industry is also going to face growing environmental and sustainability concerns.

"The raising of livestock and the ethical production of meat that is not harmful to the environment are issues that have reached international importance," said Mr Moore.

"Probably the greatest single challenge facing our industry it to reconcile the necessity of supplying high quality protein to an expanding world population with the imperative of ensuring that it is ethically produced, safe, wholesome and in harmony with the environment - the sustainable production of meat."

Mr Moore said the industry is also going to have to face the concerns about climate change and greenhouse gas emission produced inn the production of meat.

"The livestock industry has large potential to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation," he added.

He said that the industry needs to find more precise methods for calculating greenhouse gas emissions.

He said the IMS will be playing its part and has established a committee for sustainable meat.

The IMS is also building on its links with organisations such as the FAO, OECD and the OIE.

The concerns about the effect livestock production has on the environment were echoed by the Argentine vice minister for agriculture Lorenzo Basso