World Hog news:

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Thursday, April 23, 2009Print This Page
$9.5b Earmarked to Help Chinese Farmers
CHINA - The central government will spend 65 billion yuan ($9.5 billion) on infrastructure and services in rural areas to help farmers cope with the economic downturn, the State Council said yesterday.



The move to support the agricultural sector includes investment in pig raising and dairy farming and improving grain production.

Thousands of factories, mainly in the manufacturing belts along the eastern coast, have closed or reduced production, forcing millions of migrant workers to return to their rural families who depend on their incomes.

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Friday, April 24, 2009Print This Page
Swine Producers Increase Overall Capacity
VIET NAM - The US Grains Council has been working in the Vietnamese swine industry in order to expand the use of US feed grains and their co-products.



Although the country has been faced with economic strife in the last year, Vietnamese swine producers have continued to increase overall capacity and production in their operations. This expansion is assisted by governmental support programs as the Vietnamese government subsidizes interest rates on bank loans to swine producers and exempts swine farmers from taxes on land use and on hog sales.

The Council has coordinated training for commercial farm managers and technicians through a swine demonstration farm, workshops, seminars, consultancies and distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) feeding demonstrations. Vietnam's Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Development reported 26 million hogs produced in 2008 and predicts output to exceed 27 million hogs in 2009.

Adel Yusupov, USGC regional director in Southeast Asia, said hog production in Viet Nam is shifting from smaller traditional farms to larger commercial operations, creating an increased demand for more feed ingredients. "Viet Nam's dependence on imported feedstuffs like DDGS and corn will increase alongside feed output, which is expected to almost double by 2015. Viet Nam's local corn production is not able to satisfy today's demands," said Mr Yusupov.

Domestic corn production is not increasing at the same rates as consumption, creating a shortage of corn at approximately 1.4 to 1.6 million metric tons (55.1 to 63 million bushels) in 2009. If swine production continues at the current rate and corn production in Viet Nam does not increase, corn import needs in 2010 could reach 3.6 million tons (141.7 million bushels).

USGC Consultant Dr Robert Thaler, professor in the Department of Animal and Range Sciences at South Dakota State University, recently traveled to Viet Nam to assess current market conditions and to examine the potential for exports of US corn and DDGS in the swine sector. Dr Thaler and Mr Yusupov indicated many of the operations visited were already using US DDGS and heard positive feedback about the ethanol co-product as a feed ingredient.

Mr Thaler said, "The producers have a very positive, business-oriented attitude and a lot of good things are happening in the Vietnamese swine sector. The operations we saw are very progressive and will be very competitive long-term."

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009Print This Page
Likely Source of Swine Flu in Mexico
MEXICO - A pork farming area in Mexico's eastern coast state of Veracruz might be the source of the swine flu strain that has killed 149 people in the country, Mexican media reported Monday.



Local media and epidemic monitoring company Vertect identify Perote, a town in Veracruz and home to a large pig farm, as the first site of any unusual influenza activity in Mexico.

The Veracruz state government rejected the accusations, saying residents in Perote often suffer from respiratory illnesses because the town is located in a mountainous area, where temperatures vary widely.

"We only have a case tested positive for the H1N1 virus, a boy of five years eight months and he is now safe," said a government official, adding that an outbreak had been detected elsewhere around April 8, while the boy's case was "around mid-April".

However, Veracruz state news agency reported in March that residents were complaining of flu-like symptoms as early as in February and March, blaming a local pig farm, Granjas Carroll, a subsidiary of the U.S. pig farming giant Smithfield Foods.

Smithfield issued its own statement on Sunday, saying it had "found no clinical signs or symptoms of the presence of swine influenza in the company's swine herd or its employees at its joint ventures in Mexico."

The official said the outbreak was not believed to be atypical and stressed that the local government had put up a sanitary cordon to prevent the spread of any virus.

He also argued that recent statements from the World Health Organization had dismissed a direct link between the deadly flu virus and pigs.

Earlier on Monday, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) said that the virus has characteristics of avian, human and swine virus and it is more accurate to call it the "North American Flu."

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009Print This Page
Swine Influenza Creates Unrest on a Global Level
GLOBAL - Swine influenza, which initially began in Mexico, has now taken its toll on a global scale. Asian countries such as South Korea and Indonesia are taking precautionary measures to prevent the spread of the deadly H1N1 influenza virus, which has claimed close to 150 lives in Mexico alone. Scotland, all the way in Europe, seems to be affected as well.



South Korea Reports 'Probable' Swine Flu Case
A South Korean woman tested positive for swine flu in additional examinations after traveling to Mexico, making her a "probable" case - the country's first - authorities said today.

Final tests are still necessary to confirm whether the woman, 51, has swine flu, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a statement.

The woman has remained quarantined since returning from a trip to Mexico on Sunday. She contacted authorities upon her return, complaining of high fever, cough and a runny nose, officials said.

All 315 others on the same flight from Los Angeles were being tested but none have turned up positive, officials said.

Two others with possible swine flu symptoms tested negative for swine flu, which has killed more than 150 people in Mexico.

Drop in Pork Prices Amid Growing Concerns
Pork prices in South Korea fell this week amid growing concerns over swine flu spread, the South Korean government said today.

According to the Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the price for a 110-kg pig fell to 352,000 won ($260) on Monday, down 19,000 won ($14) from last weekend.

The Korea Swine Association also confirmed that the outbreak had an influence on pork prices, saying 1 kg of bone-in meat dropped to 4,663 won ($3.4), down 260 won ($0.2) from late last week.

"Prices have been falling steadily since the middle of the month, but the recent drop can be attributed to wholesalers in the industry bracing for a possible drop in demand," an official was quoted as saying by local media.

According to meat industry insiders, if strengthened quarantine measures are being taken around the world and South Korea succeed in limiting new cases of human infections, pork prices may quickly make an upturn.

Indonesia Suspends Pork Imports and Boosts Airport Scanners
Meanwhile in Indonesia, pork imports have been suspended and body temperature scanners increased at airports yesterday as senior officials tried to calm fears that swine flu had spread to the country.

Senior ministers met to discuss the threat of swine flu after it killed more than 100 people in Mexico and spread rapidly to other countries, sparking fears of a pandemic, according to the country's news agency, Borneo Bulletin.

"Indonesia has decided to stop all imports of live pigs and pork temporarily as a precautionary measure to prevent the spread of the virus here," said the government's pandemic preparedness chief, Bayu Krisnamurthi.

Transport ministry spokesman Bambang Ervan said additional measures would be taken at airports to screen passengers for signs of the flu.

"In response to the swine flu, we are installing thermoscanners at 10 airports to detect ill travellers entering Indonesia," he said.

Until now Indonesia had operated such scanners only at the airport on the resort island of Bali, as a precaution against SARS and bird flu.

Passengers arriving from the Americas would be asked to fill out special health cards stating details of their medical histories and countries they had recently visited, Mr Ervan said.

Indonesia is the country worst hit by avian influenza, or bird flu, with 115 confirmed human deaths since 2003.

Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari, whose refusal to share bird flu viral samples with international vaccine researchers has stirred controversy, said Indonesians should not panic as swine flu had not affected tropical countries.

"It takes place during autumn and winter. Our country is always hot. Don't panic," she told Detikcom news agency.

Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare Aburizal Bakrie said the government had learned lessons from its fight against bird flu which would serve it well in the event of a swine flu outbreak.

"Our ability to manage bird flu epidemics can also be used to anticipate the spread of other diseases such as swine flu," he was quoted as saying by the state-run Antara news agency.

Officials had no figures for imports of pigs and pork products to Indonesia but said they were "not significant." Ninety per cent of Indonesia's 234 million people are Muslims who generally do not eat pork.

The country's Agricultural Ministry is also supervising pig farms to control the animals' health and trade following cases of swine flu in the United States of America and Mexico, the private television MetroTV quoted an official as saying on Tuesday.

"We supervise pig farms nationwide, in Bali, West Kalimantan and Lombok among others. We also focus on Batam of Sumatra province, the gateway of pork import from Singapore," said the ministry's Director General of Animal Husbandry Tjeppy Sujana.

He added that the ministry would supervise pork circulation in markets.

Meanwhile, Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari said that people should not underestimate current flu symptoms.

Far Away in Scotland...
Two suspected cases of swine flu in Scotland have been confirmed as positive and both individuals are now recovering at Monklands Hospital in Lanarkshire.

In addition, a further seven people from the contact group of the infected people are displaying mild symptoms and are undergoing tests.

Deputy First Minister and Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said, "I can confirm that tests have demonstrated conclusively that the two Scottish cases of suspected swine flu are positive.

"However, I am pleased to say both patients are recovering well. In addition, there are currently a further seven people among the 22 who have been in contact with the two infected people, who have now developed mild symptoms and are being appropriately cared for.

"I would reiterate that the threat to the public remains low and that the precautionary actions we have taken over the last two days have been important in allowing us to respond appropriately and give us the best prospect of disrupting the spread of the virus.

"However, this is a developing situation which we continue to monitor very closely, in conjunction with our colleagues in other parts of the UK and the World Health Organisation.

"We remain very encouraged by the fact that, outside Mexico, everyone who has contracted swine flu has experienced mild symptoms only."

The Scottish Government is in close contact with Scottish NHS boards who are well prepared to respond to any further suspected cases.

As part of its pandemic flu preparations, the Scottish Government has significant stockpiles of two antiviral drugs - Tamiflu and Relenza - both of which have been effective in treating cases of the H1N1 strain of swine flu in other countries.

The Scottish Government has encouraged people to take simple infection control precautions, such as hand washing and covering their mouth when they cough or sneeze.

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Wednesday, April 29, 2009Print This Page
Indonesia Will not Ban Pork Derivative Products
JAKARTA - Indonesia will not ban pork derivative products because they were already processed to guarantee their safety, the private news portal detikcom quoted a minister as saying on earlier today.



"Through the process, virus like swine flu would be killed," said Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangestu here.

She said the ministry would issue a regulation this week to replace the rule of Agricultural Ministry's Animal Husbandry Directorate General on the matter.

She said the move would not be conducted by Indonesia only because at least six countries already did the same thing.

Ms Mari added that Indonesia imported frozen pork, not live pigs, in a small number.

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Wednesday, April 29, 2009Print This Page
Russians Eating, Producing More Meat
RUSSIA - Per-capita meat consumption was up seven per cent in 2008 compared to the previous year, and total meat production was more than 11 per cent higher.



Per capita meat consumption increased by seven per cent to 63kg in the Russian Federation in 2008, reports Meat Russia.

Federal State Statistics Service data for 2008 show that slaughter cattle and poultry production by farms of all types in Russia was up 6.5 per cent from 2007, to 9.3 million tons. This is a slower rate of growth than the previous year.

Of all livestock slaughtered last year in Russia, 34 per cent were cattle, 33 per cent poultry, 28 per cent pigs and four per cent sheep and goats. The rest were other livestock groups. The proportion of poultry has been growing over recent years, while that of cattle has been decreasing. The same source puts meat production including by-products up by 11.6 per cent to 2.9 million tons from 2007.

Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation data indicates that fresh and frozen meat imports to Russia (excluding poultry) increased from 1.489 million tons in 2007 to 1.619 million tons in 2008. In value terms, this represents an increase of 43.4 per cent to $4.9 billion from $3.4 billion in 2007. Meat imports into Russia declined towards the end of 2008.

Slaughter poultry production grew 15 per cent in 2008 from 2007 rate and exceeded three million tons.

The leading cattle-producing states are Bashkortostan, Tatarstan and Dagestan, where cattle stocks in 2007 totalled to 1,746,400, 1,116,800 and 912,200 head, respectively, concludes the Meat Russia report.

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Thursday, April 30, 2009Print This Page
World Takes Drastic Steps to Contain H1N1 flu
GLOBAL - From Egypt's order that all 300,000 pigs in the country be slaughtered to travel bans and putting the kibosh on kissing, the world is taking drastic - and some say debatable - measures to combat the North American flu.





A man wears a medical mask while walking in lower Manhattan in New York, 29 April 2009. [Photo: China Daily]Egypt ordered the pig slaughter even though there hasn't been a single case of swine flu there and no evidence that pigs have spread the disease. Britain, with only five cases, is trying to buy 32 million masks. And in the United States, President Barack Obama said more of the country's 132,000 schools may have to be shuttered.

At airports from Japan to South Korea to Greece and Turkey, thermal cameras were trained on airline passengers to see if any were feverish. And Lebanon discouraged traditional Arab peck-on-the-cheek greetings, even though no one has come down with the virus there.

All this and more, even though world health experts say many of these measures may not stop the disease from spreading. On Wednesday, the World Health Organization raised its pandemic alert to the second-highest level, meaning it believes a global outbreak of the disease is imminent.

"Scientifically speaking, the main thing is that every virus behaves differently," said Joerg Hacker, president of the Robert Koch Institute, Germany's top public health authority. "At the moment, the main issue is to get to know this virus, how it works."

In Germany, where officials confirmed three cases, Lufthansa announced that starting Thursday it will put a doctor aboard all flights to Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak.

Experts said what makes sense: The doctors will be able to field questions from uneasy passengers and tend to anyone who might fall ill.

The World Health Organization said total bans on travel to Mexico - such as one imposed by Argentina, which hasn't had any confirmed cases - were questionable because the virus is already fairly widespread.

Roselyne Bachelot, France's health minister, said she would ask the European Union to suspend all flights to Mexico at a meeting Thursday in Luxembourg.

Travel bans were effective during the 2003 outbreak of SARS in Asia, because that illness can be transmitted only by people who already show symptoms. With flu, by contrast, the incubation period ranges from 24 hours to four days, meaning people often are infectious before they have symptoms.

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, April 30, 2009Print This Page
What Promise Do Pigs of the Future Hold?
NORWAY - Pigs are known carriers of the bacterium Yersinia enterocolitica, and they can infect both other pigs and people. Human infection occurs through eating improperly-cooked pork. Professor Truls Nesbakken of the Norwegian School of Veterinary Science is trying to rid pigs of the bacterium.



The professor, who already has two Norwegian doctorates (Dr. scient and Dr. med. vet.), recently defended his thesis for the degree of Dr. philos., entitled "Control of human pathogenic Yersinia enterocolitica in the meat chain". It will make him the first scientist with three Norwegian doctorates.

One of the scientific articles supporting the thesis shows that it is possible to keep swine herds in closed breeding pyramids free of Yersinia enterocolitica. This indicates that it is possible to keep Yersinia enterocolitica, which is presently extremely wide-spread in the pig population at large, under control. In man, the bacterium can cause serious arthritis, among other illnesses. The pig is the primary host of the bacterium, and the most common path of infection from pig to man is assumed to be direct infection from eating pork.

Norwegian abattoirs have already introduced several important measures to improve slaughter hygiene, which is also a subject of the doctorate. However, more remains to be done, indicated by the fact that two people who ate pickled pork for Christmas in 2006 died of yersiniosis. Only rarely does yersiniosis lead to such a tragic outcome, and most cases cause nothing more than intestinal infection or at worst a drawn-out arthritis.

Exciting research with consequences for public health
A pig herd free of infectious disease is referred to as SPF, meaning "specific pathogen-free". In a broader context, it is very likely that we can also produce pork free of Yersinia enterocolitica, Toxoplasma and Salmonella. In that case we are no longer talking of SPF-herds, but of a development towards HPF (human pathogen-free) herds. Such a development would depend, however, on its cost-effectiveness.

The development of SPF-herds, and ultimately HPF-herds, is part of a field of veterinary medicine called Veterinary Public Health (VPH), defined as the science and practice of veterinary medicine science concerned with the maintenance of human health. Central to VPH is the understanding, prevention and control of zoonoses, or diseases spread between animals and man.

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Thursday, April 30, 2009Print This Page
Gov't Assures Public about ‘North American Influenza’
NEW ZEALAND - It is now widely recognised that it is not correct to call the current disease ‘swine influenza’.



This is a different virus to the one that causes swine flu in pigs overseas. There is no evidence to date that pigs have been infected, or could be infected, by this mutated virus. There has never been a case of swine influenza in pigs in New Zealand.

Pork is safe to eat
Credible scientists including New Zealand Food Safety Authority confirm that pig flu viruses are not transmitted by food. The virus cannot be contracted from eating pork or pork products that are properly cooked.

Trade implications
A number of countries appear to have implemented trade bans on pigs and pigmeat. There have even been suggestions that at least two countries might stop imports of pigs and pigmeat from New Zealand. There is no justification for such restrictions and we will be requesting the relevant government agencies to remedy any such situation immediately, if it occurs.

As a precautionary measure, New Zealand pork producers have been asked to be extra vigilant about farm biosecurity and hygiene, particularly concerning any visitors. This is to ensure that if there is any risk of this virus being transmitted from humans to pigs, or any perception of a risk, it is minimised in New Zealand.

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EU Pig Prices: German Companies Cause Uncertainty
EU - This week, there appear to be inconsistencies in the European slaughter pig market.

 

While some of the countries report on prices to be steady, press releases about the H1N1 flu – dubbed as “swine flu” by mistake - created a furore, thus causing pressure to be exerted on the pig prices in other countries. Unchanged quotations were observed in Spain, Denmark and France. Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Austria on the other hand, reported 4 cents’ price decreases.

The German slaughter companies in particular play on the general feeling of uncertainty, increasing massively the pressure they exert on the producers. As a consequence, the corrected quotation in France has a little lead over that in Germany and the Netherlands. Great Britain remains the market leader, Spain still ranks second with the price level having remained unchanged for 8 weeks so far. Pork is still possible to be exported from the EU, stabilising the overall market situation. However, Russia farther restricted pork imports of late. Apart from further US federal states, some Canadian provinces and Spain as well are concerned by that now. Surplus quantities are not being reported on, which might have resulted from missing days of slaughter last week (1 May and Dutch “Koniginnedag”).

Trend: The quantities of live pigs on offer, which can be marketed completely, are expected to remain steady this week. The weather conditions being fitting, the consumers will buy more barbeque pork and thus stimulate demand.

   

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Global Hog Markets Suffer from Unfair Concerns
GLOBAL - Health officials assure consumers that pork is safe to eat and no victims in the current flu outbreak had contact with hogs, but neither fact has protected market prices or import restrictions on Mexican and US pork products. Canada too is doing its part in assuring pork producers that measures are being taken to support them. Meanwhile, in the UK, Environment Secretary backs British pork farmers.



Even if health organizations succeed in changing the name, much of the world always will consider the H1N1 virus to be “swine flu.”

John Anderson, agricultural economist with the Mississippi State University Extension Service, said May futures closed around $69 per hundredweight on 24 April. Then news of the flu outbreak grew significantly over the 25-26 April weekend, and prices took a nose-dive when markets opened that Monday.

“The market’s been falling apart because of the H1N1 virus. The prices dropped basically $10 per hundredweight within the first four days of the outbreak,” Professor Anderson said. “The market wasn’t great before the scare started. Profit margins had producers losing $10-$20 per head before this started, so take another $20 off their profits after the first week of news hitting the media.”

The economist said other markets also suffered in the first days after flu reports in the media escalated. Cattle and grain futures dropped initially but recovered in the following days.

“The long-term impact will depend on how extensive the flu outbreak becomes, but it could impact all meat and grain markets. If people change their habits of eating out, consumption of all meat products could suffer,” Professor Anderson said. “The import restrictions should be short-lived since there is no science-based justification for them. Some countries just look for opportunities to hurt the U.S. markets.”

Extension swine specialist Mark Crenshaw said the state produces just under 500,000 hogs each year. Even though there have been no U.S. swine infected with the virus, he said swine producers continue to be careful to maintain biosecurity measures on their farms.

“They are being especially careful to keep workers who are sick away from the animals,” Dr Crenshaw said. “Managers may want to monitor ventilation and be sure they are following proper stocking rates to help prevent respiratory infections. Review health records to make sure routine vaccinations for the influenza virus are up to date for the animals.”

Dr Crenshaw said farms should be limiting or prohibiting visitors and definitely avoiding international visitors during this time. If producers observe any respiratory illness in pigs, they should contact a swine veterinarian immediately.

“Workers need to maintain proper hygiene with shower-in, shower-out practices. They need to wear the same boots only on the farm and not off the farm,” he said. “These are good practices that most farms follow even when there is not a flu outbreak.”

In Canada, Federal Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz yesterday issued a statement regarding the impact of the H1N1 influenza.

Minister Ritz said he has spoken to China’s ambassador, Lan Lijun, to reiterate that Canadian pork is safe. He also strongly encouraged Ambassador Lan Lijun to ensure than China bases trade decisions on sound science.

"We will continue to stand up for Canadian pork producers and ensure that they are treated fairly by China and all members of the World Trade Organization," the Minister said.

"I have spoken to American Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack to make our American neighbours aware of the situation. He has assured me that Canadian hog producers will continue to have access to the American market. We will continue to work with our American partners as we deal with this issue," he said.

Minister Ritz said the Canadian government will continue to work closely with Canadian pork producers to make sure they have the support they need.

Environment Secretary Hilary Benn visited a pig farm in Suffolk on Thursday 30 April before meeting pig farmers and other representatives from the sector for a roundtable discussion on the current flu outbreak.

Hilary Benn was shown the practical biosecurity measures that pig farmers are taking to minimise disease risks and he highlighted that there is currently no evidence that this type of flu has been found in pigs in the UK.

"This flu has not been found in pigs in the UK. We have a routine surveillance programme to detect the presence of any new animal diseases and this new strain of human flu has not been detected," he said.

He said the UK pig industry has shown real leadership on biosecurity and it is supporting the continuing surveillance programme.

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Six Months Needed for Pork Demand to Recover
MEXICO - Mexico's pork demand and prices will probably need six months to recover from the 70 per cent collapse seen in recent weeks due to A/H1N1 flu, Mexico's Agriculture Minister Alberto Cardenas Jimenez said yesterday.



He called on the Mexican people to eat pork, as the World Health Organization (WHO) said eating pork cannot spread the disease, which has killed 64 people and infected 2,656 in Mexico.

"It is very important that all the productive sectors in this nation are united in order to look after jobs, and above all, they have faith in the (pork) meat, given that it has been repeated that consuming (pork) meat will in no way spread influenza," he said.

"Mexico has the best, world class quality of pork products," he said.

Mexico is among the world's top 10 pork producers. The Mexicans typically consume around 14 kg of pork per capita each year, compared with up to 60 kg for Spain and Germany.

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Shanghai Eases Embargo on Pork
CHINA - Shanghai has lifted the embargo imposed on pork product imports from the United States and Canada during the early stages of the swine flu outbreak.



But importers must certify that all such products have been cooked at temperatures above 71 degrees Celsius to ensure there is no virus present. The city's action follows a central government directive earlier this week, reports Shanghai Daily.

Shanghai also reported yesterday that the 13 Chinese and five expatriates who are being held under quarantine in the city continued to remain in good health. The group includes passengers who, before arriving in Shanghai, were on a flight last Friday from Detroit to Tokyo with three Japanese travelers who tested positive for swine flu. Also held are people who had come in contact with them.

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Australia Watching Flu Risk for Indonesian Pigs
AUSTRALIA - Australia is worried that the Indonesian pig population could be struck down with a new form of flu.



According to ABC Rural, Senator Joe Ludwig has told Federal Parliament that after Canadian pigs caught swine flu from humans, there's now concern swine flu could spread to Indonesia and mix with bird flu within the pig population.

"Evidence to date about the bird flu virus is that its ability to mix with other viruses is limited compared with the ability of seasonal viruses - that is, those which are H1 and H3 - to mix," he said.

"Nonetheless, this is an important concern that needs close monitoring."


 

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Influenza Pandemic Alert Raised to Phase 6
GLOBAL - On the basis of available evidence and expert assessments of the evidence, the scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic have been met. The Director-General of WHO has therefore decided to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 5 to phase 6. "The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic," she said at a press conference yesterday.



World now at the start of 2009 influenza pandemic
The following is a statement made to the press by Dr Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO):

Ladies and gentlemen,

In late April, WHO announced the emergence of a novel influenza A virus.

This particular H1N1 strain has not circulated previously in humans. The virus is entirely new.

The virus is contagious, spreading easily from one person to another, and from one country to another. As of today, nearly 30,000 confirmed cases have been reported in 74 countries.

This is only part of the picture. With few exceptions, countries with large numbers of cases are those with good surveillance and testing procedures in place.

Spread in several countries can no longer be traced to clearly-defined chains of human-to-human transmission. Further spread is considered inevitable.

I have conferred with leading influenza experts, virologists, and public health officials. In line with procedures set out in the International Health Regulations, I have sought guidance and advice from an Emergency Committee established for this purpose.

On the basis of available evidence, and these expert assessments of the evidence, the scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic have been met.

I have therefore decided to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 5 to phase 6.

The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic.

We are in the earliest days of the pandemic. The virus is spreading under a close and careful watch.

No previous pandemic has been detected so early or watched so closely, in real-time, right at the very beginning. The world can now reap the benefits of investments, over the last five years, in pandemic preparedness.

We have a head start. This places us in a strong position. But it also creates a demand for advice and reassurance in the midst of limited data and considerable scientific uncertainty.

Thanks to close monitoring, thorough investigations, and frank reporting from countries, we have some early snapshots depicting spread of the virus and the range of illness it can cause.

We know, too, that this early, patchy picture can change very quickly. The virus writes the rules and this one, like all influenza viruses, can change the rules, without rhyme or reason, at any time.

Globally, we have good reason to believe that this pandemic, at least in its early days, will be of moderate severity. As we know from experience, severity can vary, depending on many factors, from one country to another.

On present evidence, the overwhelming majority of patients experience mild symptoms and make a rapid and full recovery, often in the absence of any form of medical treatment.

Worldwide, the number of deaths is small. Each and every one of these deaths is tragic, and we have to brace ourselves to see more. However, we do not expect to see a sudden and dramatic jump in the number of severe or fatal infections.

We know that the novel H1N1 virus preferentially infects younger people. In nearly all areas with large and sustained outbreaks, the majority of cases have occurred in people under the age of 25 years.

In some of these countries, around 2 per cent of cases have developed severe illness, often with very rapid progression to life-threatening pneumonia.

Most cases of severe and fatal infections have been in adults between the ages of 30 and 50 years.

This pattern is significantly different from that seen during epidemics of seasonal influenza, when most deaths occur in frail elderly people.

Many, though not all, severe cases have occurred in people with underlying chronic conditions. Based on limited, preliminary data, conditions most frequently seen include respiratory diseases, notably asthma, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, autoimmune disorders, and obesity.

At the same time, it is important to note that around one third to half of the severe and fatal infections are occurring in previously healthy young and middle-aged people.

Without question, pregnant women are at increased risk of complications. This heightened risk takes on added importance for a virus, like this one, that preferentially infects younger age groups.

Finally, and perhaps of greatest concern, we do not know how this virus will behave under conditions typically found in the developing world. To date, the vast majority of cases have been detected and investigated in comparatively well-off countries.

Let me underscore two of many reasons for this concern. First, more than 99 per cent of maternal deaths, which are a marker of poor quality care during pregnancy and childbirth, occurs in the developing world.

Second, around 85 per cent of the burden of chronic diseases is concentrated in low- and middle-income countries.

Although the pandemic appears to have moderate severity in comparatively well-off countries, it is prudent to anticipate a bleaker picture as the virus spreads to areas with limited resources, poor health care, and a high prevalence of underlying medical problems.

Ladies and gentlemen,

A characteristic feature of pandemics is their rapid spread to all parts of the world. In the previous century, this spread has typically taken around 6 to 9 months, even during times when most international travel was by ship or rail.

Countries should prepare to see cases, or the further spread of cases, in the near future. Countries where outbreaks appear to have peaked should prepare for a second wave of infection.

Guidance on specific protective and precautionary measures has been sent to ministries of health in all countries. Countries with no or only a few cases should remain vigilant.

Countries with widespread transmission should focus on the appropriate management of patients. The testing and investigation of patients should be limited, as such measures are resource intensive and can very quickly strain capacities.

WHO has been in close dialogue with influenza vaccine manufacturers. I understand that production of vaccines for seasonal influenza will be completed soon, and that full capacity will be available to ensure the largest possible supply of pandemic vaccine in the months to come.

Pending the availability of vaccines, several non-pharmaceutical interventions can confer some protection.

WHO continues to recommend no restrictions on travel and no border closures.

Influenza pandemics, whether moderate or severe, are remarkable events because of the almost universal susceptibility of the world’s population to infection.

We are all in this together, and we will all get through this, together.

Thank you.

"this is going to hurt the hog business worldwide"