The Meat Site:

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, February 16, 2012
Mexico Anticipates Grain & Livestock Production Losses

MEXICO - Mexico is currently facing the worst drought on record in 70 years. Out of 31 states, about 19 have been affected. This weather pattern, also known as La Nina, has adversely affected grain producers and exporters. Significant losses for both grain and livestock production are anticipated.


According to USDA's International Egg and Poultry Review, on 19 January, the Secretariat of Economy (SE) issued a preliminary determination of its antidumping investigation on fresh, chilled, or frozen US chicken leg quarters exported to Mexico. The SE also revealed the price discrimination margins for some producer/exporter businesses.

Mexico was recently declared Newcastle disease-free and according to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), the issue has been resolved in the country. Some 900,000 birds were destroyed in the process and the appropriate measures were taken. No new reports have been reported ever since.

Mexico also lifted it's import ban on live poultry, poultry products and by-products from Missouri's Polk County in December 2011.

Mexico's National Health Service, SENASICA, has issued new Letterhead Certificates to accompany imports of raw poultry (fresh), poultry offal (other than organs), raw poultry offal (organs), thermally processed poultry, poultry edible fats, processed egg products, poultry dried meat, and poultry bacon. This came into effect on 15 December 2011.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, February 17, 2012
Have Imports Clouded US Meat Production Efficiencies?
ANALYSIS - A special report in the February USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook produced by the USDA Economic Research Service maintains that the efficiencies in US production of beef, pork and lamb over the years have been clouded by the amount of meat and livestock that have been imported, writes TheMeatSite Editor in Chief, Chris Harris.

The report by Kenneth H Matthews Jr and Rachel J. Johnson says that since 1972 the US has been producing more beef and pig meat from smaller herds. The January US cow inventory put the US cattle herd at the smallest since 1952.

The report acknowledges that technical efficiencies and genetic improvement have helped to increase the amount of meat that is produced from each beef and pork animal, but it also says that the improvements are not as great as they first might appear, because the US has been increasing more product and animals from countries such as Canada and Mexico.

From 1972 to 2010 beef production rose per US cow by 44 per cent. In 2008, the most recent peak year, production stood at 26.5621 billion pounds. Of this 1.565 billion pounds came from Canada and Mexico.

The Mathews and Johnston report shows that 600 pounds was produced per US cow taken against the census figure of 41.692 million cows.

Similarly, dressed weights per cow have risen from 624 pounds in 1972 to 784 pounds in 2009.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*
"The US depends on foreign sources for a significant share of its red meat."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

"The US depends on foreign sources for a significant share of its red meat," the report says.

"For beef, foreign sources have accounted for as little as 8.2 per cent (1974 and 1975) to as much as 18.2 per cent (2005). Even during 2003 through 2005 when cattle imports from Canada were subject to restrictions due to the discovery of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, beef from foreign sources accounted for 14.6 to 18.2 per cent of U.S. beef supplies."

The report even acknowledges that imports from Canada fell massively between 2010 and 2011 while rising from Mexico and represented 11 per cent of total US beef production, although this as a percentage of production was down year on year.

While cattle and pig meat and livestock imports into the US were rising from the latter quarter of the last century through to the last decade, the report fails to account for the effect that the recent Country of Origin Labelling laws have had on these imports.

When they came into effect as part of the Farm Bill in 2009, imports from the main suppliers to the US, Mexico and Canada started to slide.

COOL started to differentiate not only between imported meat products, but also between cattle and pigs that had been brought across the border as calves and were raised, finished and slaughtered in the US.

The effect on trade in livestock and meat products between Canada and Mexico and the US was devastating for the Canadian and Mexican producers - to such a degree that the issue went before the disputes panel of the World Trade Organisation.

The repercussions were great. Even some US institutions such as the American Meat Institute spoke out saying that the COOL laws violated international trade regulations.

Mark Dopp, AMI Senior Vice President of Regulatory Affairs and General Counsel said that COOL is inconsistent with trade agreements because of its discriminatory effect on imported meat and imported live animals.

He added that the US had to ensure that the products of other countries "imported into the territory of [the United States]…be accorded treatment no less favourable than that accorded to like products of [US] origin in respect of all laws…affecting their internal sale."

Imports of meat were being treated as a B grade and animals that were raised and imported could not be called US.

However, the WTO has found against the US ruling that imported products were treated less favourably than US products, that COOL created unnecessary obstacles to international trade and that COOL did not fulfil a legitimate objective.

The effect of not only meat product but also livestock imports into the US - particularly those imported to be raised, fished and slaughtered in the US - and the influence that COOL has had on these imports over the last few years could completely skew the figures of what is truly US produced and the increases in productivity and could mask the real improvements that have been made in production efficiencies, livestock management and genetic advances.



Chris Harris, Editor-in-Chief

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Monday, February 20, 2012
2011 a Fantastic Year for Meat Exports
US - Due in large part to a weak dollar, 2011 was a fantastic year for US meat exports, writes Ron Plain.
 
Ron Plain
Beef, pork, chicken, and turkey exports were each record high. In total, the US exported over 15 billion pounds of red meat and poultry last year, up 10 per cent from the 2008 record.

Pork exports totaled 5.2 billion pounds in 2011, 22.9 per cent more than the year before and 11.6 per cent above the old record set in 2008. Pork exports were 4.39 billion pounds greater than imports. In total, 2011 pork exports equaled 22.9 per cent of US pork production and imports equaled 3.5 per cent of our production.

In 2011, the five biggest foreign customers of US pork were Japan, Mexico, China, Canada, and South Korea, respectively. Together they purchased 80 per cent of US pork exports. The biggest growth market was China which bought 512 million pounds more US pork than in 2010.

The value of pork exports, $5.3 billion, was up $1.2 billion (30 per cent) compared to 2010. We exported a record $48 worth of pork and $7 worth of byproduct for each hog slaughtered in 2011.

US pork imports during 2011 were down by 56 million pounds (6.5 per cent) compared to 2010 and at the lowest level since 1998. The decrease in pork imports was due to a 55 million pound drop in pork coming from Canada. Canada and Denmark accounted for 79 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, of 2011 US pork imports.

Hog prices ended the week roughly $1 lower than the previous Friday. The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $79.30/cwt, down $1.58 from last Friday. The western corn belt averaged $84.87 this morning and the eastern corn belt had a morning average of $78.47/cwt. There were not enough sales in Iowa-Minnesota for a morning price quote. Friday’s top live hog price at Peoria was $58.50/cwt. Zumbrota, had a top of $58/cwt. The top for interior Missouri live hogs was $59.50/cwt, down $1.25 from the previous Friday.

USDA’s Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $86.32/cwt, up $1.50 from the previous Thursday. Loins, butts, bellies and hams were all higher. The western corn belt average hog price this morning was 98.3 per cent of the pork cutout value.

Hog slaughter totaled 2.149 million head this week, up 0.9 per cent from the week before and up 2.6 per cent compared to the same week last year. Barrow and gilt carcass weights for the week ending February 4 averaged 205 pounds, down 1 pound from both the week before and a year ago. Iowa-Minnesota live weights for barrows and gilts last week averaged 275.9 pounds, up 0.5 pound from the previous week and up 3.0 pounds compared to a year earlier.

Today’s close for the April lean hog futures contract, $90.37/cwt, was up $2.07 from the previous Friday. The May lean hog futures contract settled at $98.90/cwt, up $1.60 for the week. June hogs settled at $99.37/cwt. July hogs ended the week at $99.75/cwt.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Tuesday, February 21, 2012
LMC: Strong January Beef Expenditure in Great Britain

NORTHERN IRELAND, UK - In the last quarter of 2011, it became clear that the higher farmgate prices that were evident throughout 2011 right across the British Isles, were starting to generate upward pressure on retail prices.

The latest market research report from Kantar Worldpanel shows that the average retail price of beef in the four weeks ending 22 January 2012 was 11 per cent higher than the same period last year at approximately £6.80/kg. This has had some interesting consequences on beef sales in volume and value terms.
 
Volume sales of beef in January were down by four per cent compared to the same period last year. This is unsurprising. Higher prices generally lead to reduced demand. However, as we well know, supplies of beef generally have been weak on the domestic market in the last few months and this may well have contributed to reduced consumption.
 
Compared to the same period last year, a smaller proportion of shoppers purchased beef. According to Kantar 57 per cent of shoppers purchased beef this January. This equivalent figure last year was 58 per cent. The average weight per purchase was down from 1.7kg last year to 1.6kg this year.
 
In volume terms, only stewing showed an increase in sales (+1.2) relative to last January. Mince sales were down four per cent and roasting sales were down by nine per cent. Frying and grilling sales were down by 11 per cent year-on-year. However, despite these reductions in volume sales, revenue from beef sales was up by six per cent. This is quite positive and perhaps demonstrates a robust consumer base that can absorb price increases to some degree, given that the price increase was not matched by a proportionate decline in demand, meaning of course that expenditure remains strong.

Reduced Lamb Consumption

Retail lamb consumption continued to be under pressure in January 2012. At farmgate level, in mid-January, prices were about eight per cent higher than in the same week last year. Retail lamb prices for the four weeks ending 22 January were 13 per cent higher than in the corresponding period last year.
 
This is a significant increase and as a result lamb demand has fallen off significantly. In January demand was 23 per cent lower than last January. The proportion of consumers putting lamb in their shopping trolley fell to 18 per cent from over 21 per cent last year. Of those 18 per cent of shoppers that did buy lamb, the average weight purchased was just less than 1kg.
 
Lamb chop sales were back by 23 per cent year on year, with leg roasting sales down by 15 per cent.
 
Unlike the retail beef market, lamb sales fell more than proportionate to the increase in price and this meant that expenditure fell by 13 per cent year-on-year, which is an obvious concern. All eyes will be on the retail lamb trade in the coming months to see how it performs during the Easter trade which came under some pressure last year.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Wednesday, February 22, 2012
 
Year-End Consumption Data Good News for Pork

US - Beef and pork demand increased last year by 0.9 per cent and 1.0 per cent, respectively. Chicken demand fell by 0.9 per cent, writes Steve Meyer in his latest "Market Preview" from National Hog Farmer magazine.


The export data highlighted in last week’s report was the last piece of data needed to compute actual domestic per capita consumption and, thus, the demand indexes for December and for 2011.
 
The news for pork was good indeed. Ditto for beef. For chicken, not so much. Figure 1 shows the familiar chart of demand indexes since 1970. Remember, these are indexes, so they represent status of demand for each species relative to its level in the base year, 1985. In addition, remember that this is domestic per capita demand – it does not include exports. It represents the collective demand from a stable population; therefore, the positive demand impacts of population growth are removed. That growth, historically, has been about 0.8 per cent per year, but growth slowed to 0.7 per cent in 2010 and 2011, primarily due to the recession.
 


Beef and pork demand increased last year by 0.9 per cent and 1.0 per cent, respectively. Chicken demand fell by 0.9 per cent. Now consider this:
•Per capita beef consumption, on a retail weight basis, declined by 2.3 lb. (3.8 per cent).
•Per capita pork consumption on the same basis declined by 2 lb. (4.3 per cent).
•Per capita chicken consumption increased by 0.4 lb. (0.5 per cent) retail weight.
 
Many might be thinking: "That can’t be! How can demand increase when consumption is falling?" Well, it can be because (now let’s all repeat this together) - "demand is not consumption."

The decline in per capita pork consumption from 47.7 lb. in 2010 to 45.7 lb. in 2011 was due to higher US population and robust exports. Production was actually 1.4 per cent higher in 2011, but less of that product was available to US consumers.
 
Demand is higher in spite of lower consumption because consumers paid more for both beef and pork than the lower consumption levels would have required had their demands been stable. The lower per capita consumption figures were accompanied by 6.5 per cent higher retail beef prices and 6.9 per cent higher retail pork prices.
 
Conversely, the increase in per capita chicken consumption was accompanied by a 2.25 per cent reduction in real chicken price – a larger reduction than the higher availability/consumption would have suggested should occur if demand was stable.
 
Is Pork Consumption Sustainable?
 
Several people have asked: "How will consumption hold up as prices rise?" The answer is it will not because lower consumption is caused by lower availability and lower availability causes higher prices. But lower consumption at higher prices does not mean demand is being destroyed. It only means consumers are behaving rationally and allocating scarce resources (dollars) among competing uses. That is the essence of economics.
 
Am I concerned about declining per capita consumption? Absolutely. I am indeed concerned that people are eating less meat and poultry. But that is their choice.
 
My real concern is that those decisions are being made based on fear that meat and poultry is bad for you as part of a balanced diet or that meat and poultry production are, as some have alleged, a major cause of global warming or that kids really don’t need meat protein in their diets as long as they are force-fed enough vegetables. I don’t think any of those are true, but they are popular in today’s culture. So, the part of this reduction that is caused by misinformed consumers either not eating meat or eating less meat concerns me greatly.
 
But even more important to me is that we are simply pricing meat out of the diets of some people. The reason consumption has fallen is that production has fallen and the reason that production has fallen is that producers/processors cannot afford to deliver meat and poultry protein to consumers at the same price we once delivered it. It simply costs too much, so we deliver less product in order to get higher prices. The mechanism to get less product, of course, has been economic losses to producers that have driven some out of business and caused others to shrink.
 
Was it a conscious decision to drive up meat prices? Maybe. Maybe not. But the impact of the energy and grain policies of the 2000s, as well as increased regulation and regulatory scrutiny, has been to cause meat and poultry protein prices to explode. I, and many of you, have been blessed in that our consumption levels may not decline given those higher prices. We can afford what we want. But many, many people do not walk in our economic shoes and I feel bad that they will be forced to reduce their consumption of these delicious and nutritious products due, simply, to higher costs.
 

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, February 23, 2012
CME: Beef, Pork & Poultry Stocks Down
US - The latest USDA cold storage report (released on 2/22) showed that total US beef, pork and poultry stocks remain below year ago levels, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.


The monthly survey pegged total beef, pork and poultry stocks as of January 31 at 1.974 billion pounds, 2.5% lower than a year ago and 2.6% lower than the five year average (see chart).

The lower stocks, however, were largely due to the sharp reduction in the supply of chicken in cold storage. Broiler producers have been cutting back for more than six months and this appears to have cleaned up the backlog of product that was created in the first half of 2011. While stocks of broiler leg quarters and wings have been tight for some time, we are now seeing breast meat stocks also decline sharply. The latest report pegged the supply of chicken breast in cold storage at 116.6 million pounds, 21% lower than a year ago and 14% lower than the five year average. While the USDA data may not capture all the supply of chicken in freezers across the US, the data does provide an indication of the year/year trend in cold storage supplies. The chicken data is important since this is the time when retailers and foodservice operators are looking at their spring and summer promotions and will try to book product ahead of what appears to be an inflationary grilling season. Chicken breasts have been seen as the value option so far but prices will likely not stay down for long given ongoing supply cutbacks and tight freezer inventories.

While the chicken data painted a generally bullish picture for protein, the pork data was ambiguous. Yes, stocks are up and that could be seen as bearish but we think a good part of the increase in stocks may have to do with more product being put away for export. Those that have a more bearish take on the report will likely note that it is not a good sign when cold storage stocks of pork loins, an item that generally finds good demand in January, rise 25% on year ago levels. Total pork stocks as of January 31 were pegged at 584.4 million pounds, 8.5% higher than a year ago and 8.3% higher than the five year average. However, inventories of hams do not appear burdensome at this time, about steady with year ago levels. Pork belly inventories at 53.7 million pounds were 4.6% higher than a year ago. Judging from the strong belly pricing, we will likely see belly stocks climb fast in February and March as end users try to use freezer hedges ahead of the spring and summer demand One indicator that some of the increase may be export related is the big jump in stocks of pork variety meats, up 33% from a year ago and unclassified pork products, up 29% from a year ago. Inventories of beef in cold storage were reported at 482.1 million pounds, 4.4% higher than a year ago and 5.6% higher than the five year average. Beef imports early in the year were better than the year before and that may have contributed to the modest increase in beef stocks.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, February 23, 2012
Chicken Being Sold at High Prices

PAKISTAN - Chicken meat was sold at a high price in the Punjab capital on Monday, as one kilogram chicken was available for Rs 220 to Rs 235.


The unusual raise in chicken prices is stated to be a result of short supply, according to Business Recorder. Market sources say over 50 per cent of poultry products are being smuggled to Afghanistan, Iran and some other neighbouring countries for profits.

According to a random survey purchase power of chicken meat has gone beyond the limits of common man. A railways employee Ayyub Khan told APP that chicken was the only commodity which they could buy because of its low price. But, he is unable to purchase chicken meat due to its high rates.

A house wife, Humaira Hassan said her husband used to bring chicken meat thrice a week but now he cannot afford chicken meat within a limited income. Meanwhile, a wholesale dealer Rafiq Bhatti at Tollington Market said poultry cartels are behind the high poultry prices.

They fix poultry rates on a daily basis. "We are at their mercy and the district administration is paying no heed to this end," he added.

When contacted, the All Pakistan Poultry Association's (APPA) former President Abdul Basit, said that in every poultry farm, owing to long spells of power outages, thousands of birds had perished.

Most of the owners, he said, had already closed their farms due to deficit.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, February 24, 2012
Slight Rise in Beef and Pork Production in January
UK - During January, the UK produced 78,000 tonnes of pork, 84,000 tonnes of beef and 23,000 tonnes of mutton and lamb. While the figures rose slightly for pork and beef compared to December 2011, mutton and lamb production remained constant. However, it should be noted that January contained 5 weeks.


According to Defra's UK Slaughter Statistics, in January, the UK slaughtered 943,000 clean pigs compared to 743,000 the previous month. 59,000 cows and adult bulls were slaughtered, compared to 46,000 in December 2011. However, the number of sheep and lambs slaughtered dropped at 978,000 head compared to 1007,000 in December.

The average slaughter weight for clean pigs rose only very slightly at 79.1kg compared to 78kg in December. The same goes for cows and adult bulls and sheep and lambs at 318.7kg compared to 311.6kg, and 19.6 compared 18.7, respectively in December.

On a weekly basis, the UK slaughtered 189,000 clean pigs in January, compared to 186,000 in December. The number of cows and adult bulls slaughtered also dropped at 12,000 compared to 11,000 in the previous month. The number of weekly slaugherings of sheep and lambs in January dropped dramatically at 196,000 compared to 252,000 in December.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

CME: Beef Export Demand Remains in Good Shape

US - Judging from the trade data for the first two months of the year, US beef export demand remains in good shape, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.
 

Total shipments continue to track above year ago levels despite sharply higher prices in the US market. A weaker US dollar has blunted some of the impact of higher US beef prices but not entirely. Overall US exports of beef muscle cuts (does not include cooked beef, or offal) in the first full seven weeks of the year (Jan 2 - Feb 16) totaled 99,800 MT, 6,244 MT or 7% higher than the comparable period a year ago. The increase in exports came despite lower shipments to S. Korea, Mexico and Japan and is evidence that diversification in beef exports should be able to sustain export growth in 2012 and beyond. The attached chart shows individual countries that contributed to the overall increase in exports in the first few weeks of 2012. Russia and Egypt led the pack, two somewhat unusual destinations for US beef. Russia has become more active in the US market in the last two years as their traditional suppliers in Argentina and Brazil have been unable (Brazil) or unwilling (Argentina) to fill Russian orders. Also supportive of US shipments to Russia has been the fact that the US dollar has declined about 7% vs. the Ruble since the beginning of the year (it still is stronger vs. the comparable period a year ago). Russian buyers at this time are finding US prices more competitive than offers from other supplying countries such as Australia and Uruguay and this is showing up in the trade data. As for Egypt, it tends to buy much of its beef from Brazil but in recent months US beef prices have become more competitive. Brazilian beef supplies have declined recently as producers there try to expand and supplies are not expected to recover until 2013/14 . Also domestic demand in that country is far outpacing the ability to expand production, pushing overall prices higher. Egyptian beef purchases were also disrupted last year by political events and byers there are trying to fill up the pipeline, this time with US beef.
 
While smaller markets are important, larger traditional markets also need to carry their weight. Exports to S. Korea have been lower than year ago levels. However, keep in mind that the year to year data is skewed vs. last year, as Feb –Mar 2011 shipments to this market spiked following the outbreak of FMD. Weekly shipments to this market peaked at about 5300 MT a week in early March 2011 but returned to around 2500 MT a week by April.
 
Also skewing the data may be the fact that S. Korean buyers were slow in placing orders ahead of the expected implementation of the US - S.Korea FTA, which will reduce the duty rate on year 1 from 40% to 37.5%. The duty will then continue to decline by 2.7% for the next 15 years. US competes directly with Australia in beef shipments to the S. Korean market. The lower tariff coupled with a weaker US dollar will likely make US beef much more competitive vs. Australian product and we expect US weekly shipments to Korea to be consistently over 3000 MT/week from April forward. A Japanese commission is currently reviewing the rules limiting US beef exports to Japan and we expect to get an answer sometime in early April and a possible July implementation date.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, March 01, 2012
Pig Slaughterings Up in January 2012
IRELAND - Pig slaughterings in Ireland rose by 12.8 per cent compared to January 2011.

According to the latest CSO Livestock Survey, the number of cattle slaughtered in January 2012 increased by 3.1 per cent compared to a year ago.

Sheep slaughterings in January 2012 increased by 15.5 per cent.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, March 02, 2012
Meat Demand Firm in Uruguay
URUGUAY - Demand for meat is firm. In 2011 the share of beef fell from 64.8 per cent to 64 per cent compared to 2010, while increased consumption of poultry meat and pork in the previous year.


Global consumption in all meat in Uruguay reached 94.7 kilograms per person per year.

Beef consumption of 60.2 achieved kilograms, keeping our country on 1 in the ranking of beef consumption.

Consumption of poultry meat is in second place in the preferences of the Uruguayan population.

Pork has been observed to generate high consumption in its natural state.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Monday, March 05, 2012
CME: Cattle Slaughter Down & Hog Up from Last Week
US - US beef packers have tried hard to keep cattle slaughter under control for much of February and last week was no different. USDA reported that total cattle slaughter for the week ending March 3 was estimated at 621,000 head, 3.7% lower than the same week a year ago, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.


Based on preliminary estimates, steer and heifer slaughter for the week was 492k head, 3.3% lower than the same period a year ago. Cow and bull slaughter for the week was estimated at 128k (without bulls cow slaughter was below 120k), down 4.5% from a year ago. So far the reductions in steer and heifer kills have done little to slow down the rampant inflation in cattle prices. Live steer prices for the week averaged around $129/cwt., almost a full percentage point over the previous week and some 15% over year ago levels. The reduction in slaughter has been offset in part by heavier weight cattle coming to market. Steer weights are running well above year ago levels, thanks to warmer than normal temperatures this winter. Dressed steer weights for the week ending February 18 (latest data available on this item) were quoted at 854 pounds per carcass, up 2.4% from a year ago.

Total cattle carcass weights for the week ending March 3 were 788 pounds (this includes both heifers and cows which are much smaller than steers), up 2.2% from a year ago. Overall beef production for the wee was 488.5 million pounds, 1.37% lower than the same week a year ago. Cow slaughter has been lower than a year ago in recent weeks and the supplies available for marketing are some of the tightest we have been in recent years.

Hog slaughter for the week was reported at 2.150 million head, 0.5% higher than the same week a year ago. Sow slaughter has been running below both year ago and five year average levels for much of this year and for the week ending February 18 (latest data) sow slaughter was 57.1k head, down 2.3% from a year ago. Producers have limited the number of sows they sent to market in part due to decent out-front implied profits but also because the trim market has provided limited opportunities in recent weeks. The price of 42CL and 72CL trim is currently some 15-20% below year ago levels and this has negatively impacted sow carcass values.

Overall beef, pork and poultry production for the week was reported to be 1.681 billion pounds, 34.8 million pounds or 2% below the same week a year ago. Cutbacks in chicken production remain the primary contributor to the decline in overall protein supplies. Total chicken production on a live weight basis was 845.6 million pounds, 5.8% lower than a year ago. On a ready to cook basis (which is the number we use to add up overall protein pounds) broiler production was 634.2 million pounds, 34.6 million pounds or 5.5% less than the same period a year ago. The cutbacks in chicken supply are finally starting to show up in the price of chicken breasts, which should show significant increases in the next four weeks.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Wednesday, March 07, 2012
Uruguayan Meat Consumption Rises
URUGUAY - Meat consumption in Uruguay is on the rise, reaching 94.7kg per person per year in 2011.


However, while consumption of pig meat and poultry has risen, consumption of beef dropped slightly last year.

Consumption of beef went down from 61.2kg to 60.6kg while consumption of pig meat went up from 9.7kg to 10.5kg and poultry meat consumption rose from 19kg to 19.5kg.

Despite the drop in beef consumption last year, the demand for beef together with pork and poultry has been rising over the last five years.

Lamb consumption also fell slightly last year despite a continued upward trend over the last few years.

According to the national meat institute - the main meat marketing body in Uruguay - consumption trends in the country have been influenced by customs and habit, but the growth has also been attributed to a growing purchasing power of the consumer and the price of the product.

Consumption has been affected by the increases in beef prices compared to those of pig and poultry meat. Beef prices rose by 19.1 per cent while pig and poultry meat prices fell by 0.8 per cent and 10.9 per cent respectively, over the last six year.

At the same time, the Uruguayan population's purchasing power rose by 28 per cent.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, March 08, 2012
CME: Varying Future for US Poultry and Meat Exports
US - USDA’s Agricultural Projections to 2021 — also known as the USDA Baseline — that was unveiled at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in February paints varying pictures for the future of US meat and poultry exports to the end of its title time horizon, writes Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.


The charts below show total exports for the major players in world pork, beef and poultry trade. Data for 2010 are final esimates while 2011 numbers are preliminary. 2012-2021 are forecasts generated by the USDA model. Note that the U.S. is depicted by the bright red line in each chart. Note also that USDA includes both chicken and turkey in the poultry numbers but chicken dominates the category. In 2011, turkey accounted for 9.1% of total chicken-turkey exports. USDA assumes that the U.S. population will continue to grow at a rate of 0.9% but that the rate will slow 0.8% beginning in 2015 and continue at that rate until the end of the forecast period. That assumption may, in fact, be a bit rosy since recent population figures show the US growth rate slowed to just 0.7% for the year ended last July. Slower immigration and a lower birth rate contributed to the slowdown and both can be attributed to the recession. The birth rate fell by one-third during the Depression years.

In addition, the value of the U.S. dollar was projected by USDA to fall during the forecast period. USDA did not include a any worsening of the Eurozone debt crisis in this forecast. Should that happen, the decline of the U.S. dollar would be slowed to some degree. The U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar index was forecast to fall from roughly 85 (2005=100) in 2011 to about 79 in 2021. We say “roughly” and “about” because the report did not include actual numbers and those figures are read from a graph in the report.

USDA projects growing exports for all three major species with pork being the largest winner. The projected increase of 503,000 metric tonnes for U.S. pork exports is over twice the increase of the other five listed exporters combined. The U.S. accounted for 35.6% of the total exports of the six listed exporters in 2011. That share increases to 39.2% by 2021 in the USDA forecasts. Note that pork exports by Canada, Brazil and China also increase during the period but at a much slower rate.

U.S. beef exports are also forecast to increase over the forecast period, gaining 14.2% from their levels of 2011. That increase would be more impressive if the U.S. industry did not have to backfill a projected significant reduction in beef exports in 2013 when lower cattle numbers will limit the amount of product available for both domestic consumption and export. The key story for beef trade, though, is quite obviously the continued dominance of Brazil and Asia — with India being the primary driver of the Asian numbers. USDA expects Asia to actually be the world’s largest beef supplier this year before a rebound in Brazilian output puts them back in their number one position in 2013. Both Asia and Brazil are forecast to see increases of 52% in beef exports by 2021.

Finally, USDA expects Brazil to separate itself from the U.S. and become the clear leader in poultry exports this year and for each year through 2021. Brazil’s poultry exports are expected to increase by 41.5% while those of the U.S. grow by 8.3% to 2021. Interestingly, China’s poultry exports are forecast to grow by 44.4%.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, March 08, 2012

Clear Labelling Needed for Non-Stunned Animals

UK - The President of the British Veterinary Association (BVA), Carl Padgett, has said that consumers need to be better informed in order to allow them to make higher welfare choices.


“The European legislation allowing non-stun slaughter for certain religious communities never intended these products to go outside those communities, but without clear labelling consumers simply do not know what they are buying.
 
“Too many suppliers, retailers and caterers, such as those in the leisure industry, believe the easiest and cheapest way to satisfy the market is to source all of their meat from slaughter without prior stunning.
 
“We want to see UK ministers in Europe pushing for proper implementation of the legislation and supporting our call for better consumer information that will allow people to make an informed choice in favour of higher welfare.”