Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities

[mikey]

US Feed Outlook - October 2010
Corn planted and harvested area are both increased this month, but a 6.7-bushel-per-acre decrease in yield lowers forecast corn production 496 million bushels. Production also is decreased for sorghum, barley, and oats, according to the USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS).

 

Corn feed and residual use is raised because of a slight rise in grain-consuming animal units and earlier-than-usual harvesting before the start of the crop year. US corn exports are reduced mostly due to higher prices and competition from Argentina. World coarse grain production is reduced this month and use is increased, leaving global stocks slightly lower. Corn, sorghum and barley prices are increased this month but the projected range for oats is unchanged.

 
Domestic Outlook

Feed Grain Production Down Sharply in 2010/11
US feed grain production for 2010/11 is forecast at 335.4 million tons, down from 349.1 million last month. The month-to-month decrease reflects reduced forecast production for corn and sorghum and smaller production estimates for barley and oats from the Small Grains 2010 Summary report. Planted area for the four grains is decreased 400,000 acres this month, and acres harvested for grain were decreased 300,000 acres. Yields per harvested acre for the four grains combined are decreased to 3.74 metric tons per acre, compared with 3.88 metric tons last month. Beginning stocks in 2010/11 are raised to 48.1 million tons, based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Total 2010/11 feed grain supply is forecast at 385.5 million tons, down from 390.7 million last month and 398.3 million in 2009/10.

Total 2010/11 feed grain utilisation is projected at 359.0 million tons, up from 358.7 million last month and 350.2 million in 2009/10. The month-to-month increase is mostly from higher corn feed and residual use but is partly offset by lower corn exports and lower sorghum domestic use. Total projected feed grain ending stocks for 2010/11 are lowered 5.5 million tons to 26.5 million, mainly reflecting tight corn supplies.

Feed Use
On a September-August marketing year basis for 2010/11, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat is projected to total 147.26 million tons, up 5.29 million from the revised total of 141.97 million tons in 2009/10. Corn is estimated to account for 93 per cent of feed and residual use in 2010/11, up from 92 per cent in 2009/10.

 
The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) in 2010/11 is 92.1 million units, up from the revised 91.5 million in 2009/10. Feed and residual per GCAU in 2010/11 is estimated at 1.60 tons, up from 1.55 in 2009/10. In the index components, GCAUs are increased for dairy, pork and poultry but decreased for beef.

With higher prices forecast for feed grains this month, most of the 2011 production forecasts for meat, milk and eggs are reduced. However, feed and residual use for 2010/11 is increased this month because it is calculated as the residual and about twice as much corn as usual was harvested before the 1 September start of the marketing year. September 1 corn stocks (2009/10 ending stocks) are reported for ‘old crop’ (harvested in 2009) stocks by respondents to the NASS survey. ‘New crop’ (harvested in 2010) corn harvested and used before the start of the marketing year is expected to show up as residual usage during the first quarter of the new marketing year. Early new-crop usage showed up as higher first quarter feed and residual use in the September-November quarter of 2007/08, the last time the corn harvest was early.

USDA’s September 17 Milk Production report indicated milk production in the 23 majors states during August totalled 15 billion pounds, up 2.8 per cent from August 2009. Production per cow averaged 1,796 pounds for August, 51 pounds above last year. However, the number of milk cows on farms declined by 10,000 head from August 2009 to 8.36 million. Milk production for 2010 is raised slightly from last month as higher milk per cow more than offsets lower cow numbers. The forecast for 2011 is reduced as higher feed prices are expected to slow the rate of growth in cow numbers and milk per cow compared with last month; with lower milk production, feed needs would be reduced.

US hog breeding inventory on the third quarter of 2010 was at 5.77 million head, down two per cent from last year and down slightly from the previous quarter according to USDA’s September 24 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Market hogs inventory, at 59.2 million head, was also down three per cent from last year. As the result of lower market inventory, lower slaughter and slower growth in slaughter weights, 2010 pork production forecast is reduced. Intended farrowings from December 2010 to February 2011, at 2.89 million sows, are up slightly from the same period a year earlier but down four per cent from the period December 2008 to February 2009 based on the report. Pork production for 2011 is lowered from last month as relatively high feed prices are expected to keep the growth in sows farrowing modest and dampen hog weights requiring slightly less feed.

USDA’s Broiler Hatchery report on 6 October indicated that broiler-type eggs sets and chicks placed have been increasing. Cumulative placements of broiler flock are up from the same period a year earlier. For these reasons, the broiler production projection is increased for the last quarter of 2010 but reduced for 2011 as producers are expected to respond to rising feed prices, slowing the expansion and reducing feed use relative to last month’s forecast.

Egg-type chicks hatched and pullet chicks for future hatchery supply have been decreasing based on USDA’s September 21 Chickens and Eggs report. Rising feed prices are also expected to reduce egg production for 2011. If realised, lower production would weaken feed use by the egg industry.

USDA’s September 15 Turkey Hatchery report indicated that during August 2010, turkey poults hatched were down two per cent from a year earlier but net poults placed were 80,000 above August 2009. Turkey production projection for 2010 remains the same as that of last month but the turkey meat forecast for 2011 is lowered from last month as higher feed prices slow growth and weaken feed needs.

USDA’s September 17 Cattle on Feed report indicated placements and marketings of feed cattle during August both increased seven per cent above 2009. Beef production forecasts for 2010 are raised as second half production is higher than previously expected. The 2011 beef production forecast is also raised primarily in the first quarter as larger-than-expected third quarter 2010 placements are marketed. Thus, feed needs by the cattle feeding industry are expected to remain strong but will partly be met by plentiful supplies of spent distillers’ grains.

Minor Changes Made to 2009/10 Crop Year
The following changes are made to the 2009/10 balance sheets:

Corn: feed and residual use is lowered 358 million bushels to 5,167 million this month based on 1 September stocks; food, seed and industrial (FSI) use is raised 30 million bushels, reflecting an increase of 25 million bushels for corn used for ethanol and small increases in other FSI uses; exports are raised seven million bushels to 1,987 million bushels based on trade data; ending stocks are raised 322 million bushels, to 1,708 million bushels, based on the 1 September stocks estimate.

Sorghum: FSI use is lowered 10 million bushels to 90 million due to tighter supplies; exports are also lowered one million bushels to 166 million based on trade data; ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels to 41 million based on the 1 September stocks estimate; and the farm price per bushel was raised from $3.20 to $3.22.

Barley: feed and residual use was lowered slightly, which lowered total use one million bushels to 217 million.

Oats: no changes were made.

Corn Crop Down Sharply in 2010/11
Corn production is forecast at 12,664 million bushels for 2010/11, down 496 million from last month. The forecast was lowered because of lower expected yield, down 6.7 bushels per acre from last month to 155.8 per acre. As forecast, this year’s production would be the third highest on record behind 2009 and 2007. Based on administrative data, 2010/11 planted area is raised 350,000 acres to 88.2 million and area harvested is up 258,000 acres to 81.3 million. Beginning stocks are raised to 1,708 million bushels, up 322 million from last month. Larger-than-expected carryout of old-crop corn, combined with an unusually early start to this year’s harvesting, suggests heavy new crop corn use before the 1 September beginning of the 2010/11 marketing year. Individual state harvest progress reports suggest that 600 to 700 million bushels of corn were harvested across the South, Southern Plains and southern Corn Belt before 1 September. This is double the level of the last two years and similar to what happened between the 2006/07 and 2007/08 marketing years. New crop corn usage ahead of 1 September 2007 lowered feed and residual disappearance during the June-August quarter of 2006/07 and boosted feed and residual disappearance during the September-November quarter of 2007/08.

 


 
The 1 October corn objective yield data indicate the second highest number of ears per acre on record for the combined 10 objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin), behind only the record year of 2009. Record high ear counts are forecast in Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Feed and residual use is raised 150 million bushels to 5,400 million, reflecting the expected impact of new crop corn usage before 1 September on indicated disappearance during the current marketing year. Exports are lowered 100 million bushels to 2,000 million as a result of smaller supplies, higher prices and increased export competition from Argentina. Corn used for ethanol production in 2010/11 was unchanged this month at 4,700 million bushels, even though ethanol production in July (latest numbers available) was 1,116 million gallons, a new record. Corn used for high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) was decreased 10 million bushels this month due to weak domestic demand. Total utilization is projected at a record 13,480 million bushels, up 40 million from last month and 396 million from 2009/10.

Ending stocks are lowered sharply this month by 214 million bushels. At a projected 902 million bushels, 2010/11 ending stocks would be the lowest since 1996/97. Projected stocks drop to less than 24 days of expected use. Tight supplies and strong demand boost expected corn prices 60 cents on both ends of the range to $4.60 to $5.40 per bushel, compared with $3.55 per bushel for 2009/10.

Sorghum Production Cut
Production is forecast at 337 million bushels, down 39 million bushels from last month and 46 million from last year. Based on updated administrative information, acreage changes were made in several states. Planted area is estimated at 5.4 million acres, down 598,000 acres from the previous forecast and 1.2 million from 2009. Planted acreage for 2010 is the lowest on record. Harvested area is forecast at 4.7 million acres, down 518,000 acres from the previous forecast and 862,000 acres from last year. If realised, this will be the lowest harvested acreage on record since 1936. Based on 1 October conditions, yield is forecast at 72.4 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels from September but up 3.0 bushels from last year. Record high yields are forecast in Louisiana and Texas. With a 10-million bushel increase in beginning stocks, total supply for 2010/11 is projected at 378 million bushels, down 29 million from last month, reflecting decreased production.

Projected total utilisation is 340 million bushels, down 30 million bushels from last month and 56 million from 2009/10. Feed and residual use is expected to be 20 million bushels lower this month and FSI use is expected to be 10 million bushels lower than last month, as strong prices and export demand limit sorghum feeding and processing use. Exports remain unchanged this month and are expected to total 160 million bushels, down from 166 million in 2009/10. Ending stocks for 2010/11 were raised one million bushels this month to 38 million.

The expected sorghum season average price was increased $1.10 on the low end of the range and $1.20 on the high end of the range to $4.80 to $5.60 per bushel, compared with $3.22 per bushel for 2009/10. This sharp increase in expected price reflects the smaller corn and sorghum crops, while export demand remains strong.

 


 
Barley Crop Forecast at 182 Million Bushels
Barley production for 2010/11 is forecast at 182 million bushels, down 2 million from August and 45 million from 2009/10. Average yield per acre, at 73.6 bushels, is up 1.3 bushels from last month and 73 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain is estimated at 2.5 million acres, unchanged from last month and down 642,000 from 2009/10. Total supply of barley is projected at 312 million bushels, down 2 million from last month and 21 million from 2009/10. Imports were unchanged from last month’s projection of 15 million bushels.

 


 
Projected barley use was unchanged from last month. Ending stocks for 2010/11 were lowered by two million bushels to 87 million and are down 28 million from last year. Barley prices were increased by 10 cents on both the high and low ends of the range to $3.80 to $4.40 per bushel, compared with $4.66 in 2009/10.

[mikey]

Oats Production at Record Lows
Production of oats for 2010/11 is estimated at a record low 82 million bushels, down five million from last month and 11 million from 2009/10. The estimated yield was lowered 1.7 bushels per acre from last month to 64.6 bushels. Compared with last year, yields were down 2.9 bushels per acre. Area planted to oats is estimated at 3.1 million acres, down slightly from last month and down 266,000 acres from 2009/10. The largest decline occurred in North Dakota, where planted area decreased 70,000 acres from last year and is a record low for that state. Harvested area is estimated at 1.3 million acres, down slightly from last month and down 111,000 acres from last year, making it the smallest acreage harvested for grain on record.

Total supply is forecast at 242 million bushels, down six million from last month. Ending stocks were lowered by six million bushels this month to 48 million, down 32 million from 2009/10. Prices for 2010/11 are unchanged this month at $2.20 to $2.70 per bushel, compared with $2.02 last year.


 


 
Hay Production up in 2010/11
All-hay production in 2010 is forecast at 152.3 million tons, up from 147.4 million in 2009. This increase stems partly from a 3.2 per cent rise year-to-year in yield at 2.55 tons per acre. Total hay harvested area for 2010/11 decreased slightly to 59.7 million acres from 59.8 million last year. Roughage-consuming animal units (RCAU) in 2010/11 are projected to be 69.5 million units, down from 70.2 million in 2009/10. With hay production up and RCAUs down, hay supply per RCAU is 2.49 tons in 2010/11, compared with 2.41 tons in 2009/10.

Production of alfalfa hay and alfalfa mixtures is forecast at 71.3 million tons, down two per cent from the August forecast but up slightly from last year. Based on 1 October conditions, yields are expected to average 3.44 tons per acre, down 0.05 tons from August but up 0.09 ton from 2009. Harvested area is forecast at 20.7 million acres, unchanged from August but down two per cent from the previous year's acreage.

Other hay production is forecast at 81 million tons, down one per cent from the August forecast but up six per cent from 2009. If realised, this will be the third highest production level on record. Based on 1 October conditions, yields are expected to average 2.08 tons, down 0.01 tons from the August forecast but up 0.10 tons from last year. If realised, this will be a record-high yield, surpassing the 2.06 tons per acre in 2004. Harvested area, at 38.9 million acres, is unchanged from August but up one per cent from the previous year.

 
International Outlook

Foreign Coarse Grain Production Prospects Increased This Month
World coarse grain production in 2010/11 is projected down 8.9 million tons to 1,088.8 million because of the large US cut. However, foreign coarse grain production changes this month are partly offsetting, up 4.8 million tons to 753.2 million. Foreign corn production is up 6.2 million tons to 498.0 million boosted by increases for Argentina and Sub-Saharan Africa. Foreign barley production prospects continue to deteriorate, down 1.3 million tons to 120.6 million. Global barley production is projected to be the lowest since 1970/71. World oats production is down slightly this month to 21.5 million, the lowest in USDA’s history back to 1960. Generally, poorer returns than those for alternative crops have limited barley and oats area planted, and unfavorable weather across much of Europe limited yields.

Argentina’s corn production is forecast up 4.0 million tons this month to 25.0 million. In recent weeks, excellent rains across western corn areas such as Cordoba have complemented earlier good rains to the east. This has facilitated timely corn planting in contrast to previous years when dryness delayed seeding. Recent increases in corn prices have encouraged seeding, as have relatively ample export quotas for the previous crop. Moreover, many producers are feeling the negative effects of continuous soybeans on yield and soil productivity, and they are attracted to corn to provide a crop rotation. Projected harvested area is up 19 per cent this month to 3.2 million hectares. The forecast yield is nearly unchanged this month but is down six per cent from the previous year’s record.

 
Corn production in Sub-Saharan Africa is up 2.1 million tons this month to 54.2 million. Rainfall across most of the region has been favourable and crop reports support increases in many countries. The largest increase is for Zambia, up 0.8 million tons to 2.8 million with increased area and very good yields. Malawi and Mozambique are each increased 0.4 million tons, with good yields pushing the increase in Malawi and increased reported area the main factor in Mozambique. There are smaller increases this month for Angola, Rwanda, Madagascar, Congo, Uganda, Somalia, Lesotho, Botswana and Swaziland. These increases overwhelm reductions for Benin, Burkina-Faso and Sierra Leone.

Serbia’s corn prospects are increased 0.3 million tons to 6.8 million due to good reported yields. EU corn production is up 0.25 million tons to 55.00 million as increased prospects for Romania, Bulgaria and France more than offset reduced prospects for Hungary and Spain. Russia’s corn production prospects are cut 0.5 million tons to 3.0 million as harvest reports indicate hot dry temperatures during grain fill reduced yields more than previously anticipated.

EU barley production is forecast down 0.7 million tons this month to 53.6 million. Spain, with barley harvest completed months ago, reported lower area and yields, reducing production 0.4 million tons to 8.3 million. There are smaller reductions this month for Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Russia’s barley production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 8.5 million as harvest reports confirm large yield losses due to drought. Statistics Canada reported slightly reduced area and yield for barley, trimming production prospects 0.25 million tons to 8.25 million. There is also a 0.1 million-ton increase in barley production for Algeria based on reported yields.

 
Oat production is reduced slightly this month for Canada, the United States and Spain, leaving global production at record-low levels. Foreign sorghum production is up slightly this month due to a 0.2-million-ton increase for Sub-Saharan Africa, but that is more than offset by reduced US prospects, leaving projected global production down 0.8 million tons this month to 63.3 million.

Increased beginning stocks, especially of US corn, are partly offsetting reduced production of world coarse grains in 2010/11. Global coarse grain beginning stocks of 198.8 million tons are the largest in eight years. Foreign coarse grain beginning stocks are up 1.0 million tons this month to 150.6 million. EU coarse grain beginning stocks are up 0.6 million tons to 23.8 million, mostly due to increased corn imports in late 2009/10 and reduced 2009/10 local marketing year barley exports. Iran’s beginning stocks are up 0.5 million tons this month due to strong corn imports at the end of 2009/10. Consumption revisions for 2009/10 for Canada and import revisions for Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela boosted 2010/11 corn beginning stocks 0.2 million tons each. There are smaller increases this month for Lebanon, Cameroon, Senegal, Kenya and Azerbaijan. These more than offset reduced stocks for Paraguay and Argentina, each down 0.3 million tons due to strong 2009/10 corn exports. There are also small reductions for several other countries.

Global Coarse Grain Consumption up, Ending Stocks Reduced
World coarse grain consumption in 2010/11 is forecast up 3.9 million tons this month to 1,124.2 million. Most of the increase is for the United States, with foreign consumption up 1.1 million tons to 820.0 million. With increased production, consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa is increased 0.9 million tons to 99.1 million. Declines in Burkina-Faso and Benin are more than offset by numerous increases in other countries. Increased supplies support increased feed use of 0.3 million tons each in Turkey and Venezuela; 0.2 million tons each in Colombia, Iran, Indonesia, Serbia and South Korea; and smaller amounts for Lebanon, Morocco and Azerbaijan.

EU coarse grain use is down 1.2 million tons this month to 151.9 million mostly due to reduced production and feed use of barley and reduced imports and feed use of corn. Russia’s coarse grain use is reduced 0.8 million tons this month to 21.7 million. Reduced corn and barley production is only partly offset by increased barley imports and despite policies to support meat production, coarse grain feed use is expected to decline more year-to-year than increases in wheat feeding. Canada’s coarse grain use is reduced 0.7 million tons this month to 22.5 million. Feed use is trimmed 0.2 million tons and corn food and industrial use is cut 0.4 million tons to 4.3 million. Coarse grain consumption for Argentina is lowered 0.5 million tons this month with lower expected corn feeding. There is also a small reduction in forecast use for Uruguay caused by increased corn export prospects.

World coarse grain ending stocks projected for 2010/11 are down this month due to the large drop in US corn stocks. Foreign coarse grain stocks are forecast up 2.1 million tons to 136.9 million, with increased corn stocks more than offsetting a small decline for barley. World corn ending stocks for 2010/11, projected at 132.4 million tons, are larger than in six of the previous 10 years.

Corn ending stocks in Sub-Saharan Africa are projected up 0.8 million tons this month to 9.8 million, boosted by increased production in many countries. Increased production is also supporting higher corn stocks prospects in Argentina, up 0.7 million tons, and in the EU, up 0.6 million. Strong imports in 2009/10 and increased beginning stocks for 2010/11 are supporting corn ending stocks prospects for Iran, up 0.3 million tons; and for Brazil, Canada and Colombia, each up 0.2 million. Serbia’s corn stocks are up slightly due to increased production. Increased corn export prospects are trimming corn ending stock prospects in Paraguay, Mexico and Uruguay; while strong demand is expected to reduce corn stocks in Venezuela.

US Corn Export Prospects Cut Due to Reduced Supplies
US corn export prospects for 20010/11 (October-September) are reduced 2.0 million tons to 51.5 million (the local marketing year is cut 100 million bushels to 2.0 billion bushels). This is still up three per cent from the 50.0 million estimated for 2009/10. As of 30 September 2010, outstanding export sales reached 13.8 million tons, up 23 per cent from a year earlier. However, increasing US prices and increased competition, especially from Argentina, is expected to limit future US corn sales.

Increased corn exports are expected from Argentina, up 1.5 million tons to 15.0 million based on sharply increased production prospects. Paraguay’s export prospects are up 0.3 million tons this month as strong export demand will limit their stocks’ increase. Zambia’s corn exports are up 0.2 million tons. A large crop is expected to encourage exports to nearby markets. Mexico’s 2010/11 corn exports are boosted 0.2 million tons based on the strong exports for 2009/10. Uruguay’s corn export prospects are nudged up for the same reason.

 
World corn trade for 2010/11 is increased slightly this month to 93.6 million tons. Turkey’s corn imports are up 0.3 million tons to 0.7 million to support poultry production. Meat production supports corn import increases of 0.2 million each for Colombia, Indonesia and South Korea. Lebanon’s corn import prospects are increased slightly. Mostly offsetting these corn import increases is a reduction of 0.5 million tons for the EU, where meat production is expected to decline in 2011; and a reduction of 0.4 million tons for Canada, with less industrial use expected.

Global barley trade is up slightly this month to 16.2 million tons with a 0.2-million ton increase in imports by Russia and exports by the EU. Despite tight grain supplies, the EU is expected to respond to strong foreign demand and boost exports. World sorghum trade for 2010/11 is unchanged this month. US sorghum exports are unchanged this month at 4.0 million tons as foreign customers are expected to bid sorghum away from the domestic market.

[mikey]

Another corn facility to rise in Isabela
[1 November 2010] The Philippine government has scored a grant from South Korea that will be used in part to build another corn facility in Isabela Province, one of the main corn production areas in the Philippines. The USD 790,000 grant will be used to construct a new corn processing centre, two multi-purpose warehouses that will serve as machinery shed and grain storage, and a community centre for trainings and other project related activities. Earlier in October, the Philippines inaugurated a USD 11.6 million corn processing centre in Isabela that can process 200,000 tonnes of corn. The site for the new project has yet to be identified, however, a pilot area covering three hectares will be used for it.

[mikey]

IGC predicts tightening of world grains markets
[2 November 2010] The International Grain Council has said that world grains markets are expected to tighten in the 2010-11 season as consumption outpaces supply for the first time in four years. While wheat production is expected to hit 644 million metric tonnes, worsening prospects for corn crops in the U.S. and China are expected to lower world production. The IGC cut its estimates for 2010-11 world corn output to 814 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 824 million tonnes. Corn output from the U.S., is expected to total 323 million tonnes this season, said the IGC, cutting its previous forecast by 11 million tonnes. China is expected to produce 162 million tons this year, 3 million less than the IGC's September estimate.

[mikey]

 Indian SBM export increases 83% in October
[3 November 2010] Soybean-meal exports from India could jump 83% in October as farmers boost sales to benefit from prices set for a fourth straight monthly gain, according to the Soybean Processors Association of India. Association's coordinator Rajesh Agrawal said sales to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand and China may total 400,000 tonnes in October, compared with 218,247 tonnes a year earlier. He said India’s soybean-meal exports may jump to 3.5 million tonnes in the year that began October 1, from 2.35 million tonnes last year. 
 
 
 

[mikey]

CME: Feed Market to Start Focusing on Demand
US - Feed prices remain a hot topic in the livestock complex and we should get some additional information from USDA when it updates its supply and demand estimates on 9 November, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.



At this time the market still does not have a firm grasp of the total supply coming from this year’s harvest. There is some expectation that USDA will further lower its yield estimate. Harvest has been relatively good in some of the northern states and it remains to be seen if that will be sufficient to offset the disappointing results of the harvest in other states. We will provide a more complete update on this once we receive the regular analyst survey prior to the report.

As the supply questions are settled, the market will start to focus more intently on the demand side in the grain complex. According to the latest USDA report (which will be updated next week), the total US corn supply for the marketing year which started on 1 September was estimated at 14.382 billion bushels. Of this supply, 1.708 billion bushels was inherited from last year and 12.664 billion bushels was expected to come from this year’s harvest. Those numbers are still up in the air but should become clearer next week.

The US ethanol industry is estimated to use about 4.7 billion bushels of corn, or 33 per cent of the available supply for this marketing year, another 10 per cent or 1.380 billion bushels is expected to go for industrial uses and seed, while exports are expected to take 2 billion bushels or 14 per cent. The remainder of the available supply is expected to go into animal feed and residual, which is one word moniker for ‘we know it got used up but don’t know where it went.’ All of these demand issues will be closely observed.

One issue that has gained prominence in recent days is the outlook for US grain exports in light of a weaker US currency. Through the first eight months of the year, almost half of all US corn exports went to Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan. The Japanese yen has been steadily appreciating against the US currency since June. This means that while US nearby corn futures have appreciated by almost 65 per cent since 1 June, in Japanese Yen terms, prices have appreciated only 45 per cent, a difference that provides Japanese buyers an edge vs. their US counterparts.


Corn prices are expected to remain high through next year and this should ration some of the export demand. But a weaker US currency will blunt some of the impact of the higher US prices. No one really knows how weak the US currency will get now that the FED has decided to crank the printing presses. What is known is that a weak dollar will be one more factor fueling inflation in feed and eventually livestock prices.

[mikey]

Indian corn consumption up 30% by 2015
[11 November 2010] Corn consumption in India is expected to grow 30% to 22.4 million tonnes by 2015 mainly driven by increasing demand for feed from the livestock sector as rising incomes allow Indian consumers to eat more meat. Rice production grows to 51% to 132 million tonnes by 2014/2015. This increase will come from increased domestic demand as India’s population continues to swell, as well as better access to pesticides and fertilizers, which will improve crop yields, noted the country’s agribusiness report.

[mikey]

 Monsanto tries to grow new corn in China
[12 November 2010] US-based multinational agricultural biotechnology company Monsanto said this week that it will trial growing a new species of corn in Jilin Province, a major maize growing production area in northeast China. The new corn species is high-yielding and pest-resistant, and its comparative advantage is quality rather than cost, according to Kevin Eblen, Monsanto's regional leader for North Asia, who was optimistic that the new corn species would appear on the local market of Jilin within two years. Monsanto's sales in China in 2009 totaled USD 11.7 billion. 
 
 
 

[mikey]

Feed Outlook - November 2010
Lower yields have reduced the US corn crop but it is still predicted to be the third largest ever, according to Allen Baker, Edward Allen, Heather Lutman and Yonas Hamda in the latest report from the USDA Economic Research Service.

 

Lower forecast corn yields this month reduce US corn production 124 million bushels to 12.54 billion. Fractional changes are made in sorghum, barley, and oats because of late harvests. Corn used for ethanol production is raised. Corn used domestically for feed and residual and for export are both lowered. These supply and use changes reduce projected ending stocks 75 million bushels. As projected, 2010/11 ending stocks would be the lowest since 1995/96 and represent a carry-out of 6.2 per cent of projected usage. Price prospects for corn and sorghum are up this month. Foreign corn production is projected higher, with increased corn production in China. Rising foreign consumption combines with the smaller US crop to leave global corn stocks at a four-year low.


DOMESTIC OUTLOOK

Feed Grain Production Prospects Lowered in 2010/11
US feed grain production for 2010/11 is forecast at 332.2 million metric tons, down from 335.4 million last month and down from 349 million in 2009/10. The month-to-month decrease results mostly from lower forecast corn production. Downward revisions for barley and oats production and a small increase for sorghum are all very small. There are no changes in imports, therefore, total supply is decreased about the same amount as production.

Total 2010/11 feed grain utilization is projected at 357.7 million tons, down from 359.0 million last month but up from 350.2 million in 2009/10. Feed and residual use was lowered 2.5 million tons this month to 139.9 million tons. Food, seed and industrial (FSI) use increased 2.5 million tons this month to 164 million because of increased ethanol production. Exports are lowered this month to 53.9 million tons from 55.1 million last month and down from 54.8 million in 2009/10 as a result of lowered corn exports. Forecast feed grain ending stocks are decreased this month to 24.6 million tons, down from 26.5 million last month. Price prospects for corn and sorghum are up this month for 2010/11.

Minor changes were made for the 2009/10 marketing year for feed grains as a result of final ethanol production numbers and exports, which raised corn FSI use but lowered exports and resulted in lower corn feed and residual use. Total feed grain feed and residual use decreased 193,000 tons, to 137.6 million for 2009/10.

Feed Use
On a September-August marketing year basis for 2010/11, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat is projected to total 144.95 million tons, up 3.4 million from the adjusted total of 141.55 million tons in 2009/10. Corn is estimated to account for 93 per cent of feed and residual use in 2010/11, the same as in 2009/10.

The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) in 2010/11 is 92.3 million units, up from the adjusted unit of 91.6 million in 2009/10. Feed and residual per GCAU in 2010/11 is estimated at 1.57 tons, up from 1.54 tons in 2009/10. In the index components, GCAUs are increased this month for cattle on feed and broilers.

Despite higher prices forecast for feed grains this month, total US meat production is raised for 2010 and 2011. Egg production was reduced slightly for 2010 and unchanged for 2011, and milk production was unchanged for 2010 and reduced slightly for 2011.

Beef production is raised largely due to a higher-than-expected number of cattle placed on feed lots during the third quarter of 2010. USDA's 22 October Cattle on Feed report indicated placement numbers up eight per cent in September from last month and three per cent above 2009. In addition, the total inventory of cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in October was up six per cent from last month and three per cent from 2009. In the trade side, export of beef is raised in 2010 and 2011 on stronger growth to Asian markets. Continued strong demand for cattle in 2010 and 2011 is expected to result in higher demand of feed despite higher grain prices.

Pork production is raised largely due to exceptional gains in carcass weights. USDA's 22 October Livestock Slaughter report indicated federally inspected average dressed weight of hogs at 202 pounds in September, up one per cent from the month before but the same as last year. Pork production is forecast higher in early 2011, as some of the weight gains seen in late 2010 are expected to carry into 2011. Feed use demand is expected to remain strong for the remainder of 2010, but higher feed costs are anticipated to moderate the increase in carcass weights by mid-2011 and lower exports.

Forecast milk production for 2010 is unchanged from last month. However, 2011 production is lowered from last month as forecast cow numbers are reduced from last month. Milk per cow is adjusted slightly higher in early 2011. This forecast is supported as historical trends show a decline in the number of milk cows and an increase in productivity per cow. On the trade side, exports in 2010 and 2011 are forecast higher due to continued global economic recovery and favorable exchange rates. Nevertheless, higher feed prices and lower forecast milk prices are expected to limit the rate of growth and the amount of feed use, especially in 2011.

Broiler hatchery data from USDA's 3 November Broiler Hatchery report points toward continued gains in broiler production as the number of broiler-type eggs set is up eight per cent and broiler-type chicks placed is up five per cent from the comparable week a year earlier. Moreover, based on USDA's 25 October Poultry Slaughter report, broiler production is up one per cent from last month and up five per cent from last year, which led to higher production forecast in 2010 and 2011. Higher than expected feed costs are expected to slow the rate of expansion and feed use of the broiler sector later in 2011.

USDA's 22 October Chickens and Eggs report showed pullets added to the layers on hand flock in the month of August was down 11 per cent from last year but pullets on hand on 1 September were up one per cent from last year. As a result, the egg production forecast is lowered this month for 2010 but unchanged for 2011. Egg prices for 2010 are forecast higher as prices recovered from their late summer decline but the 2011 forecast is unchanged. With reduced egg production and rising feed costs, feed use is expected to be lower.

USDA's 15 October Turkey Hatchery report indicated that eggs in incubators on 1 October were down four per cent from a month ago. In addition, turkey poults hatched and net poults placed during September were down four per cent each from a month ago. The Poultry Slaughter report also showed a three-per-cent decline in total turkey live weight. The rate of decline in 2010 turkey production is slower than last month's forecast, while 2011 production forecast is unchanged. With declining eggs in incubators, poults hatched and placed, and rising feed costs, producers are expected to slow down feed use.

Minor Changes Made to 2009/10 Marketing Year
Corn FSI use is raised 8.2 million bushels this month, as corn used for ethanol is raised by the same amount. This change is based on ethanol production data from the US Energy Information Administration. Corn exports were also lowered based on trade data from the Bureau of Census for August. As a result of these adjustments, feed and residual use is lowered 7.5 million bushels to 5,159 million bushels for 2009/10.






2010/11 Corn Crop Forecast Lowered
US corn production is forecast at 12.540 billion bushels, down 124 million from last month but still the third largest on record. Based on conditions as of 1 November, yields are expected to average 154.3 bushels per acre, down 1.5 bushels from last month and 10.4 bushels below last year.

Despite the drop from October, this yield, if realized, would be the third highest on record. Beginning stocks and imports are unchanged this month, resulting in projected total supply of 14.257 billion bushels, down from last month's 14.382 billion. The 1 November corn objective yield data indicate the second highest number of ears per acre for the combined 10 objective yield states (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin), behind the record year of 2009. Record-high ear counts are forecast in Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Favourable weather conditions during the month of October led to the rapid harvesting of this year's corn crop. As of 31 October, 91 per cent of the corn acreage was harvested, 67 percentage points ahead of last year and 30 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Harvest was ahead of the normal pace in all 18 major producing states, with Illinois, Indiana and Kansas all having less than five per cent of the crop remaining in the field. Harvest was complete in Kentucky, North Carolina and Tennessee by month's end.

Feed and residual use is projected 100 million bushels lower with the smaller forecast crop and higher prices expected to reduce feeding. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels as higher prices trim export demand. Corn use for ethanol is raised 100 million bushels with record October ethanol production indicated by weekly Energy Information Administration data and favorable ethanol producer margins. Ethanol prices continue to track higher with corn prices, supporting returns for ethanol producers. Although small relative to domestic usage, higher ethanol exports and lower imports are also expected to add to corn use for ethanol, with high sugar prices limiting the availability of ethanol from Brazil.

Corn ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 75 million bushels lower. At 827 million bushels, ending stocks would be the lowest since 1995/96 and represent a carryout of 6.2 per cent of projected usage. In 1995/96, carry-out dropped to five per cent of estimated usage. Lower projected ending stocks and strength in futures prices raise prospects for 2010/11 prices received by farmers. The projected season-average price is raised 20 cents on both ends of the range to $4.80 to $5.60 per bushel, compared with $3.55 in 2009/10. Since many farmers likely forward priced some of their crop before prices rose sharply this fall, prices received by farmers are expected to remain below cash prices.

Sorghum Price Prospects Raised in 2010/11
Sorghum production increased slightly this month, raising total supply 390,000 bushels from last month to 378.9 million for 2010/11. This increase resulted in a corresponding increase in ending stocks to 38.9 million bushels. Reflecting a higher expected corn price and strong marketings to date, the projected price range for sorghum is raised to $4.90 to $5.70 per bushel, up 10 cents on both ends of the range, compared with $3.22 per bushel in 2009/10.

[mikey]

Barley and Oats Prices Lowered
Barley yield is estimated at 73.1 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels per acre this month; barley production for 2010/11 is lowered 2 million this month to 180 million bushels. Total use remains unchanged this month at 225 million bushels for 2010/11. As a result, ending stocks are forecast at 86 million bushels, down one million. The projected price range is lowered five cents on the low end of the range and 15 cents on the high end of the range at $3.75 to $4.25 per bushel, compared to $4.66 per bushel last year.

Oats yield is estimated 0.3 bushels per acre lower to 64.3 bushels this month. Oats production for 2010/11 is lowered one million bushels to 81 million bushels. The projected price range is lowered to $2.15 to $2.55 per bushel, down five cents on the low end of the range and down 15 cents on the high end of the range, compared with $2.02 per bushel last year.

This month's reduction in the projected price ranges for barley and oats is made to reflect prices received to date by producers. Although cash prices are expected to remain supported by rising corn prices over the coming months, a large share of barley and oats crops have already been sold since the marketing year began on 1 June. Portions of both crops, particularly malting barley, are also contracted further limiting future gains in their season-average prices for 2010/11.

INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK

World Coarse Grain Production: Mostly a US Reduction
Global coarse grain production for 2010/11 is projected down 3.6 million tons this month to 1,085.2 million. Foreign production is trimmed 0.4 million tons to 752.8 million, with increases nearly offsetting reductions. Foreign corn production is up 2.0 million tons to a record 500.0 million, mostly due to an increase for China. Foreign sorghum is up 0.25 million tons to a record 55.0 million, as good rains and soil moisture in eastern Australia provide for favorable sorghum prospects there. However, these increases are more than offset by reductions in oats, down 1.3 million tons; barley, reduced 0.8 million tons; rye, cut 0.3 million tons and millet and mixed grain, each trimmed 0.1 million tons.

China's corn production forecast for 2010/11 is increased 2.0 million tons to a record 168.0 million as recently published data for 2009/10 indicate higher-than-expected corn area. Growing conditions and harvest weather were mostly favourable, so the projected yield is nearly unchanged this month. Corn production estimated for 2009/10 was increased 3.0 million tons to 158.0 million based on the higher reported area. However, the yield reported by the National Bureau of Statistics is hard to reconcile with the unfavourable weather in key growing regions, and USDA is maintaining a lower estimated yield. The current 2009/10 estimate and 2010/11 forecast implies a year-to-year production increase of 10 million tons, and these yield levels reflect the improved weather.

This month's numbers reflect information lowering China's oats area back to 2005/06. There are also smaller reductions to barley and millet area. Barley yields for 2010/11 are also reduced, cutting production 0.7 million tons to 2.4 million. China's oats production projection is reduced 0.2 million tons to 0.4 million, and millet is trimmed 0.1 million, to 1.5 million. The reduction in other feed grains offsets about half the increase in corn.


Australia's coarse grain production for 2010/11 is forecast up 0.6 million tons to 11.5 million. Good yields in eastern Australia are expected to more than offset drought in the west, boosting barley production 0.3 million tons this month to 7.9 million. Good soil moisture boosts prospects for sorghum yields, increasing production 0.25 million tons to 1.95 million.

Moldova reported excellent corn yields for 2010/11, though area was nearly unchanged from the previous year, boosting production 0.2 million tons to 1.4 million.

Russia's coarse grain production is reduced 1.4 million tons this month to 17.3 million. Harvest reports indicate drought reduced yields for oats and rye, cutting oats production 1.0 million tons to 3.5 million and rye production 0.4 million to 2.1 million.

Based on small revisions to several member country harvest reports, EU coarse grain production is reduced 0.4 million tons this month to 138.8 million as 0.1- million-ton reductions each for barley, corn, mixed grain and oats more than offset a small increase for rye. Belarus barley yield was reported lower than expected, reducing production 0.2 million tons to 1.4 million. Chile reported coarse grain production down 0.1 million tons to 1.7 million, with small declines for corn, oats, and barley. Also, Ukraine reported a slight reduction in millet production based on lower area.

Foreign coarse grain beginning stocks for 2010/11 increased 0.3 million tons to 150.9 million, offsetting a small portion of the production decline. More complete trade data for 2009/10 boosted imports and ending stocks for several importing countries, and EU production for 2009/10 was revised up slightly. These increases more than offset a 0.8-million-ton decline for Argentina, where increased corn feed use is estimated for 2009/10, cutting expected stocks.

Changes in Global Coarse Grain Use Nearly Offsetting This Month
World coarse grain use projected for 2010/11 is down 0.2 million tons to 1,124.0 million, as changes for different countries mostly offset each other. The largest increase in projected use is for China, with coarse grain use up 1.5 million tons. Forecast corn feed use is boosted 2.0 million tons this month based on increased production, but reduced use of barley and oats is partly offsetting. Argentina's 2010/11 corn feed use is up 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million as high meat prices boost feed prospects for both 2009/10 and 2010/11. There are small increases this month in projected coarse grain use for Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Australia, Moldova and Morocco.

Russia's projected 2010/11 coarse grain use is cut 1.3 million tons this month to 20.4 million. Oats feed use is reduced 0.75 million tons due to lower production, and food seed and industrial use is cut a combined 0.55 million for oats and rye. EU coarse grain feed use is projected 0.65 million tons lower this month mostly due to reduced prospects for corn as more is expected to be exported. Corn feed use in the Philippines is reduced 0.3 million tons to 5.0 million as meat imports limit the growth in corn feed use. Corn use in South Korea is reduced 0.3 million tons to 9.1 million as a 0.5-million-ton reduction in corn feed use due to increased feed-quality wheat imports is partly offset by an increase in expected food and industrial use. There are smaller declines in expected coarse grain use for Israel, Chile, Belarus and Ukraine.


World 2010/11 Coarse Grain Ending Stocks Prospects Reduced
Global coarse grain stocks are projected down 3.1 million tons to 160.2 million, the lowest since 2006/07. This sum of local marketing year ending stocks equals 14 per cent of projected 2010/11 use, down from 18 per cent a year earlier.

The largest reduction in projected coarse grain stocks is for Argentina, down 1.3 million tons to 1.6 million. Most of the decline, 1.2 million tons, is in corn, with increased domestic feed use. Serbia is projected to reduce corn stocks 0.5 million tons to 1.2 million as strong prices are expected to encourage exports and reverse the stock buildup that occurred in 2009/10. With reduced production, ending stocks of coarse grain in Russia and Belarus are lowered 0.2 million and 0.1 million tons, respectively. There are also small reductions this month in projected ending stocks for Chile, China and Jordan.

Increased coarse grain ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected this month for a number of countries, but the increases are small. Australia is up 0.4 million tons to 2.6 million because of increased sorghum and barley production. The EU is increased 0.2 million tons to 10.7 million as feed use is reduced more than exports are increased. Increased beginning stocks boost ending stocks 0.1 million tons for both Malaysia and South Korea. There are smaller increases this month for Moldova, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the Philippines, Ukraine, Switzerland and Tunisia.

US Corn Export Prospects Reduced
US corn exports for trade year 2010/11 (October-September) are reduced 1.5 million tons to 50.0 million, virtually the same as the previous year. (The September-August local marketing year is cut 50 million bushels to 1.95 billion bushels, down two per cent from the previous year.) Strong US prices are expected to limit importers' purchases and encourage some other countries to export.

US export shipments are starting 2010/11 at a modest pace, partly due to strong competition for logistics, especially through Pacific Northwest ports, caused by strong soybean exports. Corn exports during October at 3.4 million tons (Inspections) are well below the pace needed to reach the forecast. However, at the end of October, outstanding export sales were 12.8 million tons, up from 10.1 million a year ago.

Global corn trade is reduced 0.5 million tons to 93.2 million. Corn import prospects for South Korea and Philippines are each reduced 0.3 million tons this month. South Korea is importing more feed-quality wheat and less corn. Rains have damaged some wheat in Australia and Canada, and discounted feed-quality wheat provides an attractive substitute for relatively high priced corn. In the Philippines, meat imports are expected to tone down the rate of growth of meat production and corn feeding, limiting the need to import corn.


Strong corn prices are expected to increase some foreign exporters to boost shipments. EU corn exports are increased 0.5 million tons to 1.0 million as the large corn crops recently harvested in Romania and Bulgaria are in a good position to be shipped to non-EU destinations. Export licences reflect increasing corn export activity. Serbia's corn export prospects are boosted 0.5 million tons this month to 2.5 million as beginning stocks and good production provide ample supplies. Strong prices provide an incentive to overcome logistical problems.

As corn trade data for 2009/10 becomes more complete, estimated trade has increased, up 0.8 million tons this month to 92.5 million. World corn trade in 2009/10 is up 10 per cent from the previous year but down six per cent compared to the 2007/08 record. Recently released export data indicate stronger-than-expected corn exports from Brazil, up 0.4 million tons to 8.6 million, and for India, up 0.3 million to 1.3 million. Imports for Malaysia are boosted 0.3 million tons to 2.8 million, and Egypt is increased 0.2 million to 5.5 million.

Barley trade projected for 2010/11 (October-September) was little changed this month but 2009/10 revisions boosted Ukraine exports and imports for Saudi Arabia. Sorghum trade for 2010/11 was increased slightly this month with increased exports for Australia and imports by the EU.

[mikey]

Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Weekly Outlook: Uptrend in Crop Prices Stalls
US - Except for a brief retreat in early October, corn, soybean, and wheat prices were in a steady uptrend from 30 June through 9 November writes Darrel Good, Agricultural Economist, University of Illinois



December 2010 corn futures increased about 70 per cent, while January 2011 soybean futures and July 2011 wheat futures increased about 50 per cent.

The fundamental reasons for the large price increases have been well chronicled. The factors include smaller than expected corn acreage in the US, declining US corn yield prospects, a rapid pace of corn use for ethanol, a torrid pace of US soybean exports, rising world vegetable oil demand, a significant decline in wheat production in Russia and Kazakhstan, and a very poor start for the US winter wheat crop. LaNina weather conditions also raised some concern about southern hemisphere crops. In addition, overall demand prospects for US commodities were supported by the declining value of the US dollar and rising energy prices.

Corn prices experienced the sharpest rally due to the magnitude of the decline in US production prospects and expectations of a sharp drawdown in inventories of US corn by the end of the 2010-11 marketing year. The USDA currently projects those stocks at a 15 year low of 827 million bushels.

Soybean prices have been supported by the rapid pace of exports and export sales. The USDA now expects 2010-11 marketing year US soybean exports to reach 1.57 billion bushels, 4.6 per cent above the record exports of a year ago. Through the first 10 weeks of the marketing year, export inspections exceeded those of a year earlier by 25 per cent. Shipments to China were up 49 per cent and China accounts for 68 per cent of all US exports to date. Unshipped export sales as of November 4 were 12 per cent larger than sales of a year ago. China accounted for 58 per cent of those outstanding sales. Even with large exports, expectations were for generally adequate stocks of US soybeans at the end of the 2010-11 marketing year. The projection of those stocks dropped sharply early last week, however, as the USDA lowered the expected size of the 2010 US harvest and increased the forecast of exports.

Soybean oil prices have been supported by the projection of a second consecutive year of a 5 per cent increase in world vegetable oil consumption and a further decline in world vegetable oil stocks. Domestically, soybean oil consumption for food is expected to be near that of last year, while exports are expected to decline by 20 per cent. The USDA projects a 1.2 billion pound (72 per cent) increase in soybean oil use for the production of biodiesel. Use declined sharply last year due to the expiration of the blenders’ tax credit. To reach the USDA projection of 2.9 billion pounds, use will have to average 242 million pounds per month. Use during the last month of the 2009-10 marketing year (September 2010) totaled 98 million pounds.

Wheat prices have been supported by the nearly 6 per cent decline in world wheat production and the expected decline in US and world stocks. Those inventories, however, are expected to be at generally adequate levels. More recent concerns center on the poor condition of the US winter wheat crop and whether Russian wheat production will rebound in 2011.

Prices of all three commodities declined sharply last week. The turn to lower prices was attributed to China’s move to increase interest rates and presumably slow the rate of domestic economic growth. Such a slow down might reduce the rate of growth in Chinese demand for commodities of all types. Price weakness may have also reflected some moderation in supply concerns. The US hard red winter wheat crop received some beneficial precipitation and the USDA increased its projections of some crops outside the US Projections were increased for corn in China, soybeans in South America, and wheat in Argentina and Australia.

There may also be growing concern about the ethanol blender’s tax credit. If that credit is not extended, the pace of ethanol production could drop back to the mandated level. Finally, a private forecast that US corn producers will increase plantings by nearly 5 million acres in 2011 reminded the market that high crop prices will induce a worldwide supply response next year.

While the uptrend in prices stalled last week, there is still a lot of uncertainty about crop supply and demand conditions. Uncertainty about Chinese corn demand, ethanol policy, energy prices, weather, and acreage may result in large price swings, but should provide good support for prices into the end of the year.

[mikey]

Marubeni to take on big five crop traders
[2 December 2010] Japan’s biggest grain trader Marubeni aims to take on the world’s largest agricultural commodity traders by shipping more crops on the back of strong demand for food in emerging Asia. FT.com reported that Marubeni and competitors Itochu, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo are shifting its focus from importing oil and other commodities to their resource-poor home market to abroad. It has identified agricultural commodities as a source of growth as concerns of food security spread in Asia.

[mikey]

China to buy 5.5 mmt of US soy
[6 December 2010] China signed an agreement with the US soybean industry on November 22 to buy another 5.5mmt of soybean. This confirms that transportation demand to ship U.S. soybeans will remain strong in the coming months. US soybean commitments at 19.5 mmt (shipments and outstanding sales) for the current year to China are already up nearly 3 mmt from last year. In November, USDA projected that China will import 57 mmt of soybeans in 2010/11, with the United States and Brazil as the main suppliers.

[mikey]

US soybean farmers seek to increase share in Philippine market
[7 December 2010] US soybean farmers are looking to increase its share in the Philippine market as it projects higher demand from the livestock and poultry sector. In a statement, the Philippine Association of Feed Millers Inc (PAFMI) said the rising consumption of pork and poultry products will drive demand for feed ingredients like soybean meal and US producers are among those hoping to cash in. To boost sales, AG Processors (AGP), a leading soybean supplier to the Philippines last week led a 15-man delegation to the country to meet with local feed millers, hog raisers and poultry operators. The group is expanding its export facilities in Aberdeen, Washington to meet the growing requirements of Pacific Rim countries including the Philippines. Last year, the Philippines imported 1.5 million tonnes of SBM, with US producers accounting for 35% of the total imports.

[mikey]

CME: Year-End Stocks for Corn and Soybean
US - USDA’s December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), released on Friday, contained slightly higher projected year-end stocks for corn and lower projected year-end soybean stocks with neither number differing dramatically from the average of analysts forecasts that were published earlier in the week, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.


USDA’s December supply and utilization data for both crops appears on page 3 (please click on the link below).

Corn analysts had expected, on average, a slight reduction in projected year-end corn stocks but the report raised that estimate by 5 million bushels. That change was driven by a 5 billion bushel increase in projected corn imports from Canada. No other number in USDA’s S & U table changed and USDA left its forecast national weighted average farm price at $4.80 to $5.60 per bushel. Though slightly higher, the projected year-end stocks-to-use ratio for corn remains at 6.2 per cent, the second lowest ever. The corn price is expected to increase from last year’s $3.55/bushel in response to the decline in projected year-end stocks-to-use ratio from 13.1 per cent in 2010. These changes reflect the expected negative relationship between quantity and price. However, note the difference between this year’s forecast price and that of 1995-96 when the stocks-touse ratio was at 5 per cent, its lowest level ever. The large difference between the forecast 2010-11 price and the 1995-96 price even with a higher stocks-to-use ratio indicates that corn demand is dramatically higher now than it was in pre-ethanol days.


Global coarse grain (corn, sorghum (milo), oats, barley, rye and millet) supply was increased by 3.4 million tons in 2011 with corn, barley and oats production accounting for 2.2 million, 0.6 million tons and 0.4 million tons, respectively, of that increase. India was the primary driver of the higher corn production number, rising 1.0 million tons from the October estimate.

USDA did reduce projected soybean carry-out stocks by 20 million bushels to 165 million bushels. The reduction was due to a 20 million bushel increase in projected soybean exports, a very reasonable change we think given the rapid pace of exports since 1 September. The reduction in projected carryout stocks pushed the year-end stock-to-use ratio for soybeans down to 4.9 per cent, the 5th lowest ever. Here again, a modestly higher stocksto- use ratio is accompanied by a higher price reflecting the strength of soybean demand.


Friday’s other piece of major news for grains and feed costs is that the compromise tax bill includes a 1-year extension of the ethanol blenders’ tax credit (BTC), the ethanol import tariff as well as the revival of the $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit. The first two were set to expire on 31 December. The biodiesel credit expired at the end of 2009 and we understand that its reinstatement is retroactive, meaning that biodiesel producers can collect the credit on production back to the beginning of 2010. The extension for the BTC and tariff leave them at $0.45 and $0.54/gallon, respectively. The tax bill is expected to pass the Senate but faces an uncertain future in the House where liberal Democrats have vowed to fight it in spite of the support of President Obama.

To us, the most important facet of this deal is its timing. The 2012 run for the White House will begin with the Iowa Caucuses on 6 February 2012. This one-year extension will put the next round of ethanol debates squarely in the middle of the campaigns for those causes. Will anyone be bold enough to oppose the ethanol incentives during their presidential campaign launch?