Canadian Pork Producers:

[mikey]

Friday, April 03, 2009Print This Page
Research: DDGS Offers Potential in Swine Rations
CANADA - Research underway at the University of Manitoba suggests dried distillers grains with solubles have the potential to play an important role in swine nutrition, writes Bruce Cochrane.





Farm-Scape is sponsored by
Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork

Farm-Scape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council
and Sask Pork. 
Scientists with the University of Manitoba are evaluating lines of winter wheat from plant development to end use for ethanol production and complimentary cattle, swine and poultry feeding operations.

As part of the project dried distillers grain with solubles samples from different ethanol processing plants are being evaluated for nutrient composition and availability in animal diets and assessed in feeding trials.

Dr. Martin Nyachoti, who is overseeing the swine research, says characterizing the digestibility of nutrients and making that data available will allow nutritionists to formulate rations more accurately.

Dr. Martin Nyachoti-University of Manitoba
When you ferment grains to produce ethanol, you tend to concentrate some of the nutrients that are contained in these grains so that you tend to have an increase in the magnitude of three times what the levels were in the original grains.

For example they have fairly high levels of phosphorus and that phosphorus, we think that it's a lot more available than it is in the original grains.

So they are likely to become a very good source of phosphorus in the diets.

They also have very high levels of protein and the amino acids that are critical for proper performance of pigs so we think that it will also make a significant contribution to the protein content and they may also be a good source of energy in swine rations.

But we need to look at that, particularly considering that DDGS, they do also have very high levels of fibre compared to the original grains.

Dr. Nyachoti explains fibre dilutes the nutritive value of ingredients so, for example, DDGS can not be fed in high amounts to very young pigs because they will not be able to extract the nutrients efficiently.

[mikey]

Monday, April 06, 2009Print This Page
Input on Action to Prevent Swine Disease
CANADA - The Western College of Veterinary Medicine in Saskatoon is encouraging swine producers to consider their priorities as the pork industry plans action to step up the defense again swine disease, writes Bruce Cochrane.





Farm-Scape is sponsored by
Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork

Farm-Scape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council
and Sask Pork. 
Last week Ottawa unveiled a two year 40 million dollar initiative that will include creating national standards for biosecurity best management, research related to porcine circovirus associated diseases and other emerging diseases and establishing long-term risk management strategies.

A national conference is also being planned for July to outline strategy.

Western College of Veterinary Medicine associate professor Dr. John Harding says producers need to be thinking about what questions they want answered.

Dr. John Harding-Western College of Veterinary Medicine
Obviously 40 million dollars is a lot of money.

The two year time frame is extremely tight and, if we don't have a clear focus on what we want to accomplish with the money, then we risk it really being spent frivolously on things without long term benefit for the industry.

I think in anticipation of this meeting July where we hope that strategic priorities will determined, I think we need a good understanding of what research is being done today at the industry as well as where we truly need to focus in the future.

What we are hoping is that the 40 million does not get spent specifically on circovirus because we have it under control for the most part in the industry with the use of vaccine but we want to make sure we have a much longer term vision and that we have end points that are measurable and truly something to be proud of after the money is spent.

Dr. Harding says, whether the result of intensification or the normal evolution of pathogens, we can anticipate new novel diseases will emerge.

He believes we have to prepare for new disease threats and have researchers in place to get on top of them before they spread throughout the industry.

[mikey]

Tuesday, April 14, 2009Print This Page
Pork Commentary: Now or Never for Market Move
CANADA - This weeks North American Pork Commentary from Jim Long.

Jim Long on ThePigSite

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
It's approaching 15 April and if there is going to be a major market move it better be soon. We expect this week and coming weeks the Iowa - Southern Minnesota lean price will increase an average of $4-5 a week. Last Friday Iowa - Minnesota averaged $54.67. Our position on hog supply appears to be line as last week the USA marketed 2.129 million down 135,000 head (-5 per cent) from the same week a year ago. We expect an approximate 5 per cent decline year over year in marketings to continue through the summer.

Other Observations
The number of Hogs and Pigs coming from Canada to the USA is way down year to date, down almost one million head. Now a new dynamic is getting in play – feed costs. Canadian Producers who finish in both Canada and the USA are telling us there was a $10.00 per head feed cost advantage to finish in the USA six months ago. Now the pendulum has swung and now there is about a $15.00 per head feed finishing advantage in Western Canada compared to the USA. This obviously will encourage small pigs to stay in Canada.


USA Pork Exports were down 8.2 per cent in February from February a year ago. The December, January, and February average is down 3 per cent from a year ago. February pork exports are up in Japan 17.1 per cent, Mexico 53.4 per cent, Taiwan 126.8 per cent, and Australia 77.4 per cent. Pork exports are down to Canada -10.2 per cent, E.U.27 -67.3 per cent, China -68.6 per cent, Korea -17.7 per cent, and Russia -37.8 per cent. We expect USA pork exports will be slightly lower than a year ago, going forward. Obviously with lower pork production there will be less pork to export. High hog prices in the rest of the world will continue to push pork into their countries.


Canadian Packers are benefitting by a lower Canadian dollar in their cost structure. A decrease of relative cost competitiveness of 25 per cent (exchange rate change) compared to USA packers is embodying then to be more aggressiveness in World Export markets. USA Country Of Origin Labeling and overall costs are keeping pigs in Canada which will make Canada shackles full. At the end of 2009 we expect the USA’s decrease in pork exports will be significantly balanced by Canada’s increase in pork exports. A cause and effect of USA Country Of Origin Labeling.


We do not get much sense of new sow units being planned for construction in 2009(there are some that are being finished that were started in 2008). The economics of the hog industry is brutal. Losses continue with Iowa – Minnesota at 54.67 last Friday we expect many are losing in the $30 per head range. It’s a war of attrition. We believe the industry in Canada – USA is losing net 6-7000 sows per week as producers cut back, quit, or are forced out.


Try to get funding for a new sow unit will be really, really hard. Equity levels needed will be significant. In our estimation, part of the damage to our industry goes beyond the $20 - $30 per head losses we have experienced. The other aspect is the decrease in value on barns and equipment. Sow units are selling or are being valued at a big discount to new. Which is obviously a reflection of their capacity or lack of to make positive returns. If 7.5 million Canada – USA sows of capacity has decreased by $500 per sow. That’s $3.75 billion in lowered market value. It’s one of the reasons producers hang on. There is no exit strategy that works. You’re either dead (out of business), or alive (in business). To find a buyer for your sow farm is near impossible at anything but a huge discount. So for most of us it means soldier on. We have little choices. As one producer explained, it’s the Black Bear Theory. It goes like this, “You and I are in the woods. We come upon a Black Bear. Bear chases us. I don’t have to run faster than the bear. I just have to run faster than you.” Welcome to the Darwinian world of hog production.
Summary
We are optimistic in the near future as we see rapid hog price appreciation coming. USA pork production will be down year over 20 million pounds per week (it was last week). USA chicks placed a week ago were down 14 million chicks from a year ago. USA cattle on feed down 5 per cent. There will be less of all meats, the last time that poultry, beef, and pork were down was during the recession of 1975. In 1975 hogs averaged 47.10 liveweight and prior to the 1973-1975 recession the highest price USA hogs ever achieved for a year was $24.80 average. It was over forty years ago that all meat protein sources were down at one time. We are in mostly unchartered waters. We believe the dynamics of less total meat availability and the pull of global meat demand will push lean hog prices to profitable levels by mid – May. It is soon.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics 

[mikey]

Thursday, April 23, 2009Print This Page
Substantial Run-Up in Hog Prices Projected
CANADA - The Manitoba Pork Marketing Cooperative is predicting a substantial run-up in live hog prices over the next few weeks, writes Bruce Cochrane.





Farm-Scape is sponsored by
Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork

Farm-Scape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council
and Sask Pork. 
Over the past two to three years a combination of factors ranging from excess hog numbers to high feed costs to the high Canadian dollar followed by the global economic melt down and US Country of Origin Labelling have eroded the profitability of Canadian pork producers.

Manitoba Pork Marketing Co-op CEO Perry Mohr says the stars have been lining up for a significant increase as hog supplies decline heading toward summer.

Perry Mohr-Manitoba Pork Marketing Cooperative
The world economic challenges have probably influenced the up-side potential of that run-up but we do expect, probably over the course of the next three to four weeks, to see hog prices jump anywhere from 20 to 40 dollars 100 kilograms maybe even for a week or two, compared to where we are today, it might be 50 dollars per 100 kilograms higher.

What are the factors involved with that?

Quite honestly reduced hog supply in the United States.

The reduction has been exacerbated by the fact that there's fewer Canadian butcher hogs and fewer Canadian weanlings going down there.

The Canadian dollar has relaxed.

It's been bouncing between 79 and 81 cents for the last little while.

That's going to add 20 to 25 dollars to the equation as compared to where it was a year ago when it was a buck or 1.10 or par.

We've had some good things happen.

Just from a cost of production standpoint we've seen feed prices lowered considerably.

Of course that could change depending on planting conditions etceteras.

I think hog producers will get into some profitable months this summer.

How long it will last, I'm hoping it'll last into September and I'm hoping when we typically see hog prices go down in the fall that they won't go down as far as they typically do.

Mr Mohr says, after three years of negative returns, producers need a sustained period of profitability.

[mikey]

Wednesday, April 22, 2009Print This Page
Pork Commentary: Hog Markets on Launching Pads?
CANADA - This weeks North American Pork Commentary from Jim Long.
Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
Friday to Friday, the Iowa – Minnesota lean hog price went from $54.61 to $59.61, up $5.00. That would be an increase of about $10.00 per head in one week. It’s what we need – the hog price has to start rolling. We expect the price to relentlessly move higher in the coming weeks.

USA Pork Exports Up?
February USA pork export were up year over year. 4.7 per cent in value. Good for supply of demand isn’t it. The total value of the USA pork exports in February were valued at $368.2 million. Pork plus variety meat exports of 158,471 metric tonnes (349.3 million pounds) was 57 per cent higher than February two years ago. Isn’t it interesting the doom sayers who have continually told us pork exports will drop significantly due to the lack of demand because of the global recession. Thankfully, they continue to be wrong. We have repeatedly expressed the opinion that USA pork exports would hold close to a year ago. We have based this on the higher price of hogs – up to 200 per cent higher, we see in most countries that import pork. We expect pork exports to hold relative to a year ago as liquidation in other parts of the world ( Mexico, European Union, Brazil, Australia, Japan, South Korea, etc...) will continue to keep their domestic hog prices high an pull in USA pork.

Total Meat and Poultry
We remain optimistic that we are going to see hog prices appreciably higher than the current lean hog futures indicate. One of the reasons is the decline in all meats and poultry production in the USA.

Latest Weekly Data (million Pounds)
  2009 2008 Difference
Pork 434.9 453.2 -18.3
Beef 473.1 500.3 -27.2
Chicken 844.9 925.5 -80.6
Turkey 132.2 136.6 -4.4
Total 1,885.1 2,015.6 -130.5

130.5 million pounds less meat and poultry per week than a year ago. That’s about 3,500 tractor trailers of meat protein. Give or take a line back to back of tractor trailers 40 miles long. That’s a lot of meat! The last year beef, pork, chicken, and turkey production was down year over year at the same time was 1975. 49 years ago. The hog price in 1975 set a record high (1975 was also a time of economic recession).

We are in unchartered waters. Global hog prices remain high. USA pork exports remain good (higher in February than the year before). All poultry and meat supply is down. The only way to ration limited supply is higher prices. Hang on, we believe the market is on the launching pad.

Eagle Creek Grand Opening


Mike Van Schepdael, V.P. and Jim Long, President-CEO of Genesus present an Award to Evergreen - Eagle Creek for weaning over 30 pigs per sow per year in 2008.

Nedap Feeding StationsWe had the honor to speak at the open house of a new Genesus multiplier last week. The new facility built in Manitoba by Evergreen Colony – a twenty year Genesus customer is called Eagle Creek. The new Eagle Creek facility in our estimation is one of the most advanced swine facilities in the world.

Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics 

[mikey]

Tuesday, April 28, 2009Print This Page
Vigilance Advocated for Protection Against Swine Flu
CANADA - The Western College of Veterinary Medicine is calling for vigilance to minimize the risk of Canada's swine herd becoming infected by a human form swine flu, writes Bruce Cochrane.





Farm-Scape is sponsored by
Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork

Farm-Scape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council
and Sask Pork. 
An outbreak of an H1N1 strain of swine influenza A in humans, which has spread throughout Mexico, is being blamed for over 100 deaths.

Cases have also been reported in the United States and Canada resulting in mild illness.

Western College of Veterinary Medicine Associate Professor Dr. John Harding says ironically, while we call it swine flu, this particular strain is not affecting pigs at this time but pigs are susceptible so veterinarians and producers must be vigilant in trying to prevent herds from being infected.

Dr. John Harding-Western College of Veterinary Medicine
Symptoms in humans are typical of the seasonal flues that may come, aches and pains, fever respiratory disease so anybody with those symptoms particularly if they've been in Mexico or have contact with other infected people need to be contacting their physician as soon as they possibly can.

In pigs it's also a respiratory disease.

Pigs will develop a fever.

We're not so sure about the aches and pains that humans would see but certainly we can see very severe clinical signs which is more typical of the classic H1N1 or we could see just more very subtle clinical signs, a few pigs coughing in a barn which is almost difficult to diagnose and distinguish from other pneumonias so I think producers need to be very vigilant that, if they see changes in the respiratory disease status on their farms, then they need to be calling their veterinarian.

Dr. Harding stresses pork is safe to consume for two reasons, we don't see high levels of influenza in meat or meat products and if you handle and cook your pork carefully and properly there is absolutely no risk.

[mikey]

Wednesday, April 29, 2009Print This Page
US and Canadian Hog Inventory Down Four Per Cent
US - This publication is a result of a joint effort by Statistics Canada and NASS to release the total hogs, breeding, market hogs, sows farrowed, and pig crop for both countries within one publication.

 

US and Canadian inventory of all hogs and pigs for March 2009 was 77.3 million head. This was down 4 per cent from March 2008 but up 1 per cent from March 2007. The breeding inventory, at 7.39 million head, was down 4 per cent from a year ago and down 1 per cent from last quarter. Market hog inventory, at 69.9 million head, was down 4 per cent from last year and down 2 per cent from last quarter. The pig crop, at 35.6 million head, was down 2 per cent from 2008 but up 3 per cent from 2007. Sows farrowed during this period totaled 3.73 million head, down 4 per cent from last year.

US inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March 2009 was 65.4 million head. This was down 3 per cent from 1 March 2008 and down 2 per cent from 1 December 2008. The breeding inventory, at 6.01 million head, was down 3 per cent from last year and down 1 per cent from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 59.4 million head, was down 3 per cent from last year and down 2 per cent from last quarter. The pig crop, at 28.2 million head, was down 1 per cent from 2008 but up 7 per cent from 2007. Sows farrowed during this period totaled 2.98 million head, down 3 per cent from last year.

Canadian inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 April 2009 was 11.9 million head. This was down 9 per cent from 1 April 2008 and down 19 per cent from 1 April 2007. The breeding inventory, at 1.38 million head, was down 6 per cent from last year and down 1 per cent from last quarter. Market hog inventory, at 10.5 million head, was down 9 per cent from last year and down 3 per cent from last quarter. The pig crop, at 7.37 million head, was down 7 per cent from 2008 and down 8 per cent from 2007. Sows farrowed during this period totaled 750,400 head, down 7 per cent from last year.

[mikey]

Thursday, April 30, 2009Print This Page
Maple Leaf Sees Sales Rise
Canadian meat processor Maple Leaf Foods saw sales for the first quarter increase by 6.3 per cent to C$1.3 billion compared to C$1.2 billion last year



This the company said reflected price increases and the benefit of favourable foreign currency changes on fresh meat sales.

Earnings from operations before restructuring and other related costs and other income and expenses fell by 4.5 per cent to C$31.6 million compared to C$33.1 million last year, as significant declines in packaged meat earnings were mitigated by benefits from the restructuring of pork processing and hog production operations and price increases across the bakery business.

"Results in the first quarter were overshadowed by depressed margins in our packaged meat operations, as we continue to recover from the major product recall last year," said Michael H. McCain, President and CEO.

"While volumes improved, which was our first priority, margins will take longer to restore. Our bakery businesses have largely rebounded from the commodity impacts of last year, and our protein restructuring is yielding ongoing benefits.

"Although we are in the midst of a deep global recession, our product portfolio delivers good value at reasonable prices. As our business has stabilised, we are now focused on sustaining the volume recovery, improving margins and realizing higher growth rates in our core categories."

Adjusted Operating Earnings in the Meat Products Group fell to C$11.4 million in the first quarter of 2009 compared to C$25.0 million last year.

Margins in packaged meat products were significantly lower than last year due to the impact of volume recovery efforts following last year’s product recall.

Higher raw material costs and the effect of foreign exchange on raw material costs could not be passed on in this environment of business recovery, and significant promotional costs were incurred to support volume recovery objectives.

Over the next several months, the Maple Leaf management will be implementing actions to restore margins, including appropriate price action, reducing internal costs and resuming more normalized investment in promotions.

In response to the economic recession, marketing and innovation activities are focused on shifting the product mix to offer consumers a greater variety of value propositions.

Earnings from fresh pork operations improved significantly in the first quarter, as the benefits from double shifting the pork processing plant in Brandon, Manitoba, the consolidation of ham boning operations and the closure of less efficient plants were realised

. A weaker Canadian dollar resulted in higher sales prices for fresh pork and increased earnings from international sales. In the first quarter, the Company announced that due to difficult credit markets, it has suspended actively marketing its pork processing business in Burlington, Ontario.

The sale process for this business is expected to resume when credit markets stabilise and an appropriate sale value can be realised. The business is profitable and contributed to cash flow and earnings for the quarter. Earnings from the Company’s poultry operations were consistent with last year.

Adjusted Operating Earnings for the Agribusiness Group in the first quarter of 2009 increased to C$2.1 million from a loss of C$2.8 million last year.

Results for the first quarter last year included $8.4 million in government support.

While earnings from by-products recycling operations were consistent with last year, results in hog production improved significantly due to lower production following the sale or exit of non-core operations in Ontario and Alberta.

Restructuring and simplification of the core operations in Manitoba resulted in operational improvements such as lower cycle times and improved feed efficiency and hog quality.


 

[mikey]

OTTAWA —  Pigs on a Canadian farm have been infected with the new swine flu virus — apparently by a farm worker back from Mexico — and are under quarantine, officials said Saturday. It is the first known case of pigs having the virus.

But officials quickly urged caution. Swine flu regularly causes outbreaks in pigs and the pigs do not pose a food safety risk, Dr. Brian Evans, executive vice president with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, told a news conference.

The officials said the pigs in the province of Alberta were thought to be infected by a Canadian farm worker who recently visited Mexico and got sick after returning to Canada.

The traveler has recovered, and the estimated 200 sickened pigs are recovering as well, officials said. No pigs have died, and officials said they don't think the flu has spread beyond the farm.

Normally, detecting influenza in pigs would not generate a response from food safety officials, but the current circumstances are different with the international flu outbreak, Evans said.

"The chance that these pigs could transfer virus to a person is remote," he said, adding that he would have no issue eating pork from the infected pigs.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Canada has taken the necessary precautions to prevent the spread of the disease. He said there have been no reports of the virus in U.S. pigs and noted the sick Canadian swine have been quarantined.

The World Health Organization has insisted there is no evidence that pigs are passing the virus to humans, or that eating pork products poses an infection risk.

The U.N.'s Food and Agriculture and World Health Organization, along with the WTO and the World Organization for Animal Health, issued a joint statement Saturday saying there's no justification for any anti-pork trade measures as a result of the swine flu epidemic since there is no evidence the virus is spread by food.

The statement was the most emphatic yet from the United Nations and other agencies on the issue.

The statement came after major American pork importers like Russia and China banned pork products from certain U.S. states as the new swine flu spread. Indonesia, Ukraine and the Philippines and Serbia have banned certain pork products from the entire country.

Canadian officials called such measures unwarranted.

The pigs in Alberta were thought to be infected by a farm worker who returned from Mexico on April 12 and began working on the farm two days later. Officials noticed the pigs had flu-like symptoms April 24, Evans said.

Approximately 10 percent of the 2,200 pigs on the farm have been infected, Evans said.

Officials said the pigs were likely infected in the same manner as humans worldwide, and that the virus is acting no differently in the pigs than other swine flu viruses.

"Whatever virus these pigs were exposed to is behaving in that exact manner as those we regularly see circulating in North America and in swine herds in virtually every nation around the world," Evans said.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, studies have shown that swine flu is common throughout pig populations worldwide, with 25 percent of animals showing antibody evidence of infection.

The new virus has shown no signs of mutation when passing from human to pig, Evans said.

 

[mikey]

Pork Commentary: Flu Damage
CANADA - This weeks North American Pork Commentary from Jim Long.

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
The wizards decided to term it swine flu. Talk about getting a punch in the stomach. Our industry pounded for two plus years by negative margins with our losses significantly enhanced by government subsidies making corn ethanol. Now we get further government harassment. The total failure of government authorities to provide leadership in the naming of this flu is criminal. They controlled the name but despite no evidence that the 2009 influenza has anything to do with swine. They allowed it to be used until it was too late. The damage to the markets have been swift with hogs dropping $20.00 per head last week. In our opinion, if there is stimulus money to bail out banks and car companies from their own stupidity and greed, it would be more than justified to financially compensate swine producers for their losses attributed to the 2009 flu. It’s about fairness. The NPPC in our opinion should be full throttle at Ag – Secretary Vilsack, Senators Harkin and Grassly et al. The USA government has proven it will help foreign bond holders, foreign shareholders in banks, and support unions to buy car companies. Maybe it’s time to financially support American hog producers.

The hysterical news reports if not so damaging would be hilarious! 35,000 Americans die of the flu per year, about 100 per day, 150 Americans die in vehicle crashes per day. Any sense of proportion has been lost. The meat puppets that read nightly news have little sense of what is relevant. Came from Pigs? Anyone of them wonder why it appears out of the 500,000 workers in the North American Swine Industry, not one is sick from pigs? Too simple for these simpletons. The only good thing it appears flu is Y2K. Remember all computers were going to stop on 1 January 2000. Billions were getting spent by some, none by others. The only difference: 2 January, money spent - money gone! The meat puppets quickly moved on their next contrived crisis. 24/7 news channels need new crisis’s like addicts need crack cocaine. They can’t live without them.

Last Wednesday, we were in Chicago O’Hare Airport. CNN was on the TVs in the waiting area yammering about the 2009 flu. Of course we were watching as our livelihood is in play. After a while we looked around and realized of the 34 people who were in position to watch the two televisions we were the only ones watching. Why? We don’t know. Maybe the crying wolf of crisis after crisis has numbed people from paying attention. Maybe the old song 99 channels and nothing on is true. We were watching because it’s our livelihood on the line. It’s personal. If it was sheep flu we’d pay less attention like the others. If our premise is true, if this story gets over quick with no more dead people to fuel the news, the markets will recover. As they say “no news is good news.

1976 Flu
In 1976 there was a major swine flu scare in the United States. History tells us it was a fiasco. Sound familiar?

History tells us one soldier died in Fort Dix New Jersey in February 1976. President Ford then announced soon after a $135 million plan to inoculate every man, woman, and child in the United States. There was fear of a 1918 like pandemic (sound familiar).

Drug companies swiftly stepped up to make the vaccines (follow the money trail). The drug companies demanded and received immunity from civil suits that might rise from complications. And arise they did! Within months, a spike in cases of paralysis from Gillian – Barre Syndrome was reported including 25 deaths. The cases were quickly pinned on the vaccine and the USA government spent $90 billion settling lawsuits. Drug companies were scot free!

In all 45 million Americans received the vaccines. 25 presumably died from the vaccine. In the end there was one death from the flu – the soldier in Fort Dix, and a couple hundred got sick.

A lot of noise and money in the end spent about nothing. Do we ever learn?!

Of note on the hog prices in February 1976 the USA averaged 47.70 liveweight. January had been 46.60.

1976
January 46.60
February 47.70
March 45.80
April 47.10
May 48.90

Hog prices held in 1976 during the flu scare and showed no long term damage. The big difference in 2009 is we now depend on export market access. Let’s hope WTO regulations are honored as there is no health danger in pork exports.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics 

[mikey]

DDGS Scores Well in Canadian Swine Rations
CANADA - Feeding high levels of distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) is not only proving to reduce feed costs for Canadian swine producers, but is also lending to "excellent" growth performance, according to Eduardo Beltranena, research scientist with Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development.



Mr Beltranena is the leading researcher for a collaborative study, sponsored partly by the US Grains Council, which is currently in the second phase of determining the impact on growth performance and pork quality with the inclusion of high levels of DDGS in the diet.

Though the project is not complete, he reported "no concern whatsoever" in the growth performance of the pigs when fed 30 per cent DDGS. "Growth performance during the trial was excellent. Feed cost at the time this trial ran was so high that 100 grams more feed per pound gained represented $2.40 extra feed cost per hog marketed," he said.

While pork producers are concerned with cutting feed costs, which account for 70 per cent of the overall cost of production, the processors maintain a strong focus on the quality of the meat. The researchers determined the duration of the dietary inclusion level of DDGS prior to market weight to avoid undesirable effects on pork and fat quality.

Mr Beltranena said these withdrawal rates are imperative to the producer and processor in order to maintain the quality of product the consumer demands. "Our results showed that feeding 30 per cent corn DDGS and implementing a withdrawal strategy did not affect neither hog growth performance, feed cost per hog, income over feed cost nor cost per pound gained.

However, the rate of withdrawal of corn DDGS out of the finishing diets improved carcass dressing per cent and estimated carcass pork yield," he said. The study, now in its final stage, will assist the Council in broadening the market for the abundant co-product of US ethanol production.

Canada has consistently been the second-largest market for US DDGS at 771,797 metric tons in 2008, a 142 per cent increase from 2007. As of 28 February 2009, 206,817 metric tons of US DDGS have been exported to Canada.

[mikey]

Pork Commentary: Hard to be Optimistic
CANADA - This week's North American Pork Commentary from Jim Long.
 
This is a tough time for our industry, and we are having a hard time finding reasons for optimism. Week upon week of production losses of $20 to $30 per head is getting us phone calls and emails asking us to say when it will get better. We have no answer. The collapse of pork demand triggered by H1N1 is pounding us into submission.

Some Observations
National Pork Producers Council, National Pork Board and Canadian Pork Council have mostly been ineffective in getting in the media’s face on continuing to call this swine flu rather than the official name of H1N1. The negative branding of swine has been devastating. Why they haven’t threatened media groups with legal action is beyond us. $50 million a year in check off to build a brand and defend our honor is not getting us much push. This is a time when a single national voice should be heard and not be mostly silent. They should be going to the President, Prime Minister, Cabinet, and Legislators. They should lead, not look like a deer in the headlights. This is the time our collective producers funded bodies need to perform. The industry is losing billions – real action is needed.


We have heard reports that sows are backing up as liquidation intensifies and also of piggy sows going to market. The run is on. Everyday production capacity decreases. It’s sad when we realize that everyday families have their dreams squashed of having a sustainable hog producer. The corn ethanol boon doogle and H1N1, two situations out of every producer’s control and issues manufactured by government policy and or inaction continue to devastate the entrepreneurs of our business.


One family that fought the fight and appeared to have lost the battle is Stomp Family Farms of Saskatchewan. At one time they had over 20,000 sows, they are now in reported liquidation. One more family’s dream crushed by our industry circumstances. How many more must it hurt when they look across the countryside in Saskatchewan at Big Sky Farms, the largest government owned hog farm in the world. Big Sky gets to back stopped totally by the government treasury, while it still benefits from special designed government subsidies unique to Saskatchewan. Now the Government of Saskatchewan through Big Sky will own over half the sows in the Province. One of the best parts of the Big Sky story is that its chairman is a renowned ag- economist Larry Martin. Always quick to tell farmers how they should operate during his tenure at the University of Guelph. It is interesting to see what happens when the lecturen – teacher -philosopher gets the bottom line responsibility. We wouldn’t doubt if actual operations income (before subsidies) of Big Sky will be some of the worst in our industry. Note to the Government of Saskatchewan: Close down Big Sky. Governments should not own hog farms and compete with family farms. It’s immoral and against all free enterprise principles that you were elected on.


The USDA just lowered the estimated 2010 pork production from 22.62 billion pounds to 22.05 billion pounds. They are predicting an average price in 2010 of 48 – 51 cents per pound live weight. About breakeven – We expect 2010 continual pork production capacity is dealing faster than the USDA can calculate. 2009 USDA is projecting 22.75 billion pounds.


China also is being hit with lower hog prices. A year ago now China’s hog price was about $1.20 US live weight per pound (19 yuan). Currently, it is 63 cents live weight per pound (9.75 yuan). Corn currently is 1.66 yuan per kilogram or about $6.75 US per bushel. Chinese producers are currently losing $14 - $29 US per head. They do have lots of pigs though. China National Development and Reform Commission estimates 50 million sows and 454 million head in inventory. Current supply and price scenarios in China do not appear to provide much in short term opportunities for North American pork exports.


Hog weights are about 5 pounds heavier than they were a year ago. Some of this is backed up hogs, but we also believe that cool weather has been excellent for growth. It’s a combination of both – not only backed up hogs.


Reports say the average crop farmer in Iowa has 9 per cent debt. If he has hogs this allows great staying power. Many crop farmers have the equity to last in hogs a long time. They could be the last man standing when the market recovers.
Summary
We are all marooned on the island surrounded by shark infested waters. There is no easy exit strategy. You are alive in the business or you are gone. Few if any buyers are available. You run until you are broke. You shut down and have a next worthless facility. Billions were invested in industry buildings that have little value today. Depreciation is an accountant’s game real value is in the marketplace. The real estate marketplace for swine buildings is dismal. Bankers don’t want to know their worth today. Bankers are as scared as anyone. Their jobs are on the line in a dismal labor market. They hope we have cash flow and don’t force them to make hard decisions. We saw that at the World Pork Expo and some of them were weak kneed. It’s a tough time. We will recover. We have a resilient industry and product. Pork is the number one meat in the world for consumption. H1N1 will pass. It’s a mild flu. The survivors will be tougher and wiser then in almost any industry. Our intentions are to be here. Like you, there is no quit in our gene pool.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics 

[mikey]

Rally to Discuss Pork Industry Crisis Planned
CANADA - Manitoba Pork Council says it'll take a concerted effort on the part of pork industry stakeholders and government to come up with the solutions necessary to address the economic crisis facing Canada's swine industry, writes Bruce Cochrane.





Farm-Scape is sponsored by
Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork

Farm-Scape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council
and Sask Pork. 
Manitoba Pork Council has slated a pork industry meeting for Monday in Morris to allow producers, industry stakeholders and Manitoba and federal government representatives to discuss the economic situation facing pork producers and possible solutions.

Council Chair Karl Kynoch says the price of meat is so low that producers are losing about 40 dollars on every hog they raise.

Karl Kynoch-Manitoba Pork Council
The pork industry right now here is basically on the brink of collapse.

Some of the producers in the industry, they're about to lose everything here right now going forward as prices have really bottomed out.

We're going to see a lot of job losses and in turn this is going to affect a lot of small communities.

On top of that there's going to be a huge effect with the feed companies, with the trucking industry and with the veterinarians.

All of these industries are going to suffer just due to the crisis that the hog industry is going through.

So we need to make sure that we have government involved and we need to have producers involved.

This has to be a very united front between both industry and government to try to see what we can do to make this industry viable again.

We've approached government with a short term plan and some long term but government is really looking to us for some long term plans and that's what we're always trying to put together.

How can we show them where we'll be in a year from now?

That's a real challenge when you're dealing with a live commodity, it's a perishable commodity that's being sold on the world market.

Hopefully at this meeting government can bring us some ideas, maybe producers can bring us some ideas but we really have to work together as both industry and government to get out of this mess.

The rally will begin with a pork barbecue at the Southern Manitoba Convention Centre in Morris Monday at 5:30 p.m. and the meeting will begin at 7:00 p.m..

Mr Kynoch encourages everyone that makes a living from the pork industry, whether it's barn operators, employees or industry partners

[mikey]

Daily Hog Report
Have this report emailed to youBookmark this pageSlaughter Date: Friday, June 12th, 2009. (updated for Friday and Monday)
 
Iowa/Minnesota Daily Direct hog prices
Weighted ave. base price (49-50% lean, live equiv)   - US$41.74/cwt
Packer premium for 51-52% lean hog              - US$1.75/cwt
Value of a 250 lb hog (2.5xUS$43.49)   - US$108.72/hog
                               
Manitoba Equivalent Hog Price Calculation:
U.S. dollar   - $1.1177
Value of a 250 lb hog in Canadian dollars   - C$121.51/hog ,"lets say if the PR peso was worth 40 CDN,then a 250 lb hog or 113.6 kg would be worth approx. P4,860. pesos." ON CONTRACT not SPOT or FARMGATE.Just thought I would through this in to show you the differences between the 2 countries.
     
Manitoba Index of a 51-52% lean hog (est.)   - 110
Average carcass weight of 250 lb hog (est.)     - 200 lb
 
Manitoba Equivalent Hog Price for hogs f.o.b. Iowa plant:
Index 100 (dressed, excl. freight/fees*/shrink)   - C$55.23/cwt OR
    - C$121.77/100Kg
 
* Est. freight/fees Wpg. to Sioux Falls, S.D.   - C$9.50/100kg
Equivalent price last week, June 5th          - C$120.07/100kg
Average price: week of June 8th – 12th     - C$120.08/100kg


note:cwt is weight,every 100 pounds or 45.4 kilos.
 
 

[mikey]

Canada Gains Meat Market Access to Mongolia
OTTAWA, CANADA - Canadian farmers and exporters now have new market opportunities in Mongolia for beef, cattle and swine and their products. Federal Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz made the announcement today after meeting with Mongolia's Minister for Food, Agriculture and Light Industry, the Honourable Tunjin Badamjunai.



"Market by market, commodity by commodity, this Government is making sure Canadian farmers have every opportunity to reach customers around the world," said Minister Ritz. "Today's announcement is an important development in relations between our two countries, and opens doors to many new exports and opportunities in agricultural cooperation."

"The Government's decision to open a new Embassy in Ulaanbataar last year is already paying dividends," said International Trade Minister Stockwell Day, who met with Minister Badamjunai on Monday to discuss further trade cooperation. "We are the second largest foreign investor in Mongolia and our existing strong commercial relationship in the mining sector is broadening into real opportunities for Canada's agricultural producers."

The recent approval of several Canadian Food Inspection Agency export certificates demonstrates once again the appetite for our safe, high quality products on international markets. Canadian agriculture and food products that can be exported to Mongolia are: live cattle, live swine, ovine/caprine genetics (sheep/goats), bovine genetics, porcine semen, day old chicks and hatching eggs, and meat products, including all beef and beef products.

Minister Ritz met his Mongolian counterpart in Ottawa today to discuss agriculture cooperation and trade opportunities between the two countries. As part of this mission, Minister Badamjunai and his governmental and business delegation will also travel to Saskatchewan, a province with which Mongolia has a close agricultural relationship.