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 21 
 on: August 11, 2012, 09:33:46 AM 
Started by Mustang Sally Farm - Last post by Mustang Sally Farm

CME: Pork, Beef Prices Down Despite Drought
10 August 2012

 

US - While there is broad expectation among US market participants that the surge in grain prices will eventually push beef and pork prices higher, for the moment beef and pork prices at the wholesale level are below year ago levels, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.

The reality is that it will take time and plenty of pain along the supply chain to reconcile higher feed costs with what the consumer is willing to pay. On the pork side, it is important to recognize the importance of the export market and the outsize impact it has on the overall pricing structure. The share of US pork going to export markets has been increasing steadily, underpinning US hog prices and helping avoid the kind of structural changes needed to cope with $6, $7 and now $8 dollar corn prices. In 2007, just as corn prices were starting to ratchet higher, pork exports accounted for about 14% of US pork production.
 
By the third quarter of 2011, however, pork exports were 23% of overall US pork output, a dramatic increase that helped put the pork cutout over $105/cwt. (see chart).
 
In the first half of 2012, pork exports continued to be very strong, accounting for almost 25% of all US pork output. That does not necessarily mean stronger demand given that pork prices were soft, rather, that at the lower price levels exports were able to absorb more US product. Going forward, it will be critical for export demand to hold up, otherwise major reductions in hog production capacity will be needed.
 
The US pork cutout on Thursday was quoted at $92.8/cwt, $16.6/cwt or 15% lower than a year ago and also 8% lower than what it was at the end of June. Much of the argument for the lower year over year price decline centers around the softer outlook for US pork exports in the second half of the year and that is likely a driver. However, we would argue that softer domestic demand for pork this summer clearly is a major factor. Two items have been particularly problematic in recent weeks, loins and ribs. This past July was the hottest on record and apparently that negatively impacted the willingness of the US consumer to spend time barbecuing in the backyard. The loin primal cutout is currently running some 24% below year ago levels while the rib primal is down 26% from last year. On the other hand, the belly primal is down just 2% from a year ago while the ham primal is down 13%.

The choice beef cutout on August 9 was quoted at $1.8250/ cwt, $4.5/cwt or 3% higher than a year ago. Strong promotions of choice beef at retail helped the cutout hit annual highs in June but then prices slipped in July as hot weather took its toll. The expectation is for choice beef to track near or above 2011 prices into the fall as cattle and beef supplies continue to decline. There is plenty of talk about cattle herd liquidation but it is important to put that portion of the beef supply in context. Most of the cattle coming to market are feedlot animals. Feedlot cattle slaughter currently is running at a weekly pace of around 500-520k head per week compared to cow/bull slaughter of around 127—133k head per week. So even as cow slaughter is expected to increase to around 140- 150k per week into September and October, limited fed cattle kills will keep overall beef supplies in check, likely down about 5% for Q3 and –3.6% for Q4.

 22 
 on: August 11, 2012, 09:32:25 AM 
Started by mikey - Last post by Mustang Sally Farm
USDA WASDE

Reports» USDA WASDE» USDA WASDE - August 2012

10 August 2012
USDA WASDE - August 2012



 

WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 54 million bushels with higher forecast production and an increase in projected imports. Production is forecast 44 million bushels higher with increased yields for winter wheat, durum, and other spring wheat. Feed and residual use is projected 20 million bushels higher, reflecting the tighter supply situation for corn. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 34 million bushels higher. The projected range for the 2012/13 seasonaverage farm price is raised substantially to $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel, compared with $6.20 to $7.40 per bushel last month, as tighter foreign wheat supplies and sharply higher corn prices raise price prospects for the remainder of the marketing year.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 2.1 million tons lower mostly reflecting a 3.7- million-ton reduction in foreign production. A small increase in 2012/13 world beginning stocks is partly offsetting with 2011/12 updates to trade and use for a number of countries. Lower expected production in the FSU-12 accounts for most of this month’s decline in world output. Production is lowered 6.0 million tons for Russia on reduced area and yield prospects due to July heat and dryness across most of the spring wheat growing areas. Spring wheat in adjoining areas of Kazakhstan was also affected by the same adverse weather reducing production prospects 2.0 million tons. Other reductions this month include a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Turkey based on lower reported yields, a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina reflecting lower expected area, a 0.3- million-ton reduction for Syria, and a 0.2-million-ton reduction for EU-27. Production is raised 2.9 million tons for India, 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, and 0.4 million tons each for Canada and Uzbekistan.

Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is raised 3.2 million tons as a number of countries are expected to shift some of their livestock and poultry feeding from corn to wheat. Wheat feeding is raised 1.0 million tons each for EU-27 and Ukraine, 0.5 million tons each for South Korea and Vietnam, 0.3 million tons for Israel, and 0.2 million tons each for India and Thailand. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Russia with lower expected production.

Global wheat imports for 2012/13 are raised with increases for several countries, in part, to support higher wheat feeding. Imports are raised 0.5 million tons each for EU-27, South Korea, and Vietnam, and raised 0.3 million tons for Israel. Imports are also raised 0.3 million tons for Brazil. Global 2012/13 exports are raised, but much of the shift among countries also reflects reduced export prospects for Russia, which is lowered 4.0 million tons. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, 1.0 million tons each for Canada and EU-27, 0.5 million tons each for Australia, Brazil, and Pakistan. Exports are lowered 0.7 million tons for Argentina, 0.5 million tons for Turkey, and 0.2 million tons for Uruguay. World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 5.3 million tons lower at 177.2 million.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected sharply lower again this month with corn production forecast 2.2 billion bushels lower and sorghum production forecast 92 million bushels lower. The forecast U.S. corn yield is reduced 22.6 bushels per acre to 123.4 bushels as extreme heat and dryness continued, and in many areas worsened, during July across the Plains and Corn Belt. As forecast, the 2012/13 corn yield would be the lowest since 1995/96. Corn area harvested for grain is also lowered, down 1.5 million acres from the last month’s forecast that was based on the June Acreage report. The U.S. sorghum yield is forecast 16.3 bushels per acre lower at 48.6 bushels as drought stressed sorghum from the Central Plains to the Corn Belt. Sorghum harvested area is also lowered slightly.

U.S. corn production for 2012/13 is forecast at 10.8 billion bushels, the lowest since 2006/07. Relatively small increases in carryin and imports only partly offset this month’s substantial reduction in crop size. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 118 million bushels higher with lower expected exports, reduced corn use for ethanol, and a small increase in imports. Imports for 2012/13 are also raised, up 45 million bushels to 75 million, reflecting strong domestic corn prices and competitively priced foreign supplies. Total U.S. corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected down 2.0 billion bushels and at a 9-year low.

This month’s large reduction in U.S. corn supplies and the sharply higher price outlook are expected to further reduce 2012/13 corn usage. Total use is projected 1.5 billion bushels lower and at 11.2 billion would be a 6-year low. The biggest reduction again this month is for feed and residual disappearance, projected down 725 million bushels. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is also projected lower, down 470 million bushels, mostly reflecting a 400-million-bushel reduction in corn used to produce ethanol. Reductions in other food and industrial uses account for the remainder of the FSI decline. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 650 million bushels, 533 million lower and the smallest carryout since 1995/96. The 2012/13 season-average farm price for corn is projected at a record $7.50 to $8.90 per bushel, up sharply from the $5.40 to $6.40 per bushel projected in July. Projected farm prices for the other feed grains are also raised.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are reduced 56.5 million tons mostly reflecting the forecast 55.7-million-ton reduction in the U.S. corn crop. Larger 2012/13 corn beginning stocks in the United States and Brazil partly offset lower U.S. and foreign coarse grain production. Brazil corn beginning stocks are raised 2.8 million tons based on higher reported production for 2011/12.

Foreign corn production for 2012/13 is mostly unchanged with increases for China, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa mostly offset by reductions for EU-27, Ukraine, India, Serbia, Russia, Croatia, Moldova, and Canada. Foreign sorghum production is lowered 0.3 million tons with a reduction for India. Reductions in barley production in FSU-12, EU-27, and Turkey lower global barley production 1.1 million tons. A 2.5-million-ton reduction in India millet output also lowers world coarse grain supplies.

Global 2012/13 corn trade is projected sharply lower this month in response to tighter U.S. supplies and higher prices. Corn imports are lowered for China, EU-27, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Vietnam, Israel, Colombia, Peru, and Syria. In addition to the United States, corn exports are reduced for Ukraine, EU-27, and Serbia. Partly offsetting are export increases for Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and Canada. Global corn consumption is projected 38.9 million tons lower with the United States accounting for more than three-fourths of the reduction. Foreign corn feeding drops 8.8 million tons with only part of the decline offset by higher wheat feeding. Corn feeding is lowered for EU-27, India, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Ukraine, Vietnam, Israel, and Indonesia. Global corn ending stocks are projected 10.8 million tons lower with increases for China, Brazil, and Argentina only partly making up for the large reduction in the United States and smaller reductions in a number of other countries.

RICE: U.S. total rice supplies for 2012/13 are projected at 244.4 million cwt, down 2.5 million from last month. Projected beginning stocks, imports, and production are each lowered from a month ago. USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2012/13 U.S. rice crop is 190.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million from last month's projection, but up nearly 3 percent from the previous year. Average all rice yield is forecast at 7,196 pounds per acre, down 39 pounds per acre from last month’s projection, but up nearly 2 percent from last year. Long-grain production is forecast at 132.1 million cwt, down 1 percent from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 57.9 million, up less than 1 percent from a month ago. The all rice import projection is lowered 0.5 million cwt to 21.0 million due in part to an expected slower pace of long-grain imports from South and Southeast Asia, a continuation of the trend observed in 2011/12. All rice beginning stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 33.5 million because of an increase in the 2011/12 export estimate to 102.0 million.

U.S. total rice use for 2012/13 is projected at 216.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from last month. All rice domestic and residual use is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 124.0 million, all in longgrain. The all rice export projection is unchanged at 92.0 million cwt, however, the rough rice component is raised 1.0 million and offset by a 1.0 million reduction in combined milled- and brownexports (rough-equivalent basis). The long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain export projections are unchanged at 60.0 million cwt and 32.0 million, respectively. U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 28.4 million cwt, down 0.5 million from last month, and 15 percent below the previous year.

The 2012/13 long-grain U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. The 2012/13 all rice price is projected at $14.10 to $15.10 per cwt, up 30 cents per cwt on each end of the range. A smaller crop and tighter supplies, particularly for long-grain rice, are expected to support prices. The all rice stocks-to-use ratio at 13.2 percent in 2012/13 is the lowest since 2007/08, and the long-grain rice stocks-to-use ratio at 10.6 percent is the lowest since 2003/04.

Lower projected global 2012/13 total supply more than offsets a slight decrease in total use resulting in an expected decrease in ending stocks. Global production is lowered 1.9 million tons to 463.2 million, due primarily to forecast reductions for India, Brazil, and North Korea, which are partially offset by increases for China and South Korea. Beginning stocks are increased 0.8 million tons due to a 1.0-million-ton increase for India, which is partially offset by reductions for Brazil and Indonesia. World consumption is reduced 0.4 million tons. A 1.0-million-ton increase in China offsets an identical reduction for India. Consumption forecasts are also lowered for Brazil, North Korea, and the United States, partially offset by an increase for Indonesia. Global trade is changed little from a month ago. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 101.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, and a decrease of 3.2 million from the previous year. The largest stocks reductions for 2012/13 are for Brazil and Indonesia, each just over 0.3 million tons.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 83.4 million tons, down 9.4 million from last month, as a lower soybean production estimate is only partly offset by higher crops of peanuts and cottonseed. Soybean production for 2012/13 is projected at 2.7 billion bushels, down 358 million due to lower harvested area and yields. Harvested area is projected at 74.6 million acres, down 0.7 million from the July projection. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 36.1 bushels per acre is 4.4 bushels below last month’s projection and 5.4 bushels below last year’s yield. Soybean supplies for 2012/13 are projected 12 percent below last month to a 9-year low on lower production and reduced beginning stocks. Soybean exports are reduced 260 million bushels to 1.11 billion bushels. Soybean crush is also reduced as higher prices reduce domestic use and prospective exports for both soybean meal and oil. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 115 million bushels, down 15 million.

U.S. changes for 2011/12 include increased soybean crush and exports and reduced ending stocks. Crush is increased 15 million bushels to 1.69 billion reflecting increased exports and domestic use of soybean meal. Soybean exports are increased 10 million to 1.35 billion bushels reflecting strong shipments in recent weeks. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 145 million bushels, down 25 million.

Soybean and product prices for 2012/13 are all raised to record levels this month, reflecting the impact of sharply reduced soybean and corn production. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $15.00 to $17.00 per bushel, up $2.00 on both ends. Soybean meal prices are projected at $460 to $490 per short ton compared with $365 to $395 last month. Soybean oil prices are projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 457.3 million tons, down 8.5 million tons from last month. Reductions for soybeans, sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed are only partly offset by increased rapeseed production. Lower soybean production is projected for the United States, Canada, and EU-27 due to lower yields resulting from hot, dry weather. Soybean production is raised for Brazil and Paraguay as producers are expected to respond to sharply higher prices with increased plantings. Brazil’s soybean production is projected up 3 million tons at a record 81 million. Sunflowerseed production is reduced for EU-27, Ukraine, and Moldova due to the effects of hot, dry weather during the reproductive stage of the crops. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for EU-27 and Ukraine, lower rapeseed production for China and Australia, lower peanut production for India and Indonesia, and lower cottonseed production for India.

Global oilseed and meal production, trade, and consumption for 2012/13 are all reduced this month reflecting the impact of reduced oilseed supplies and higher prices. Projected soybean imports for China are reduced 1.5 million tons to 59.5 million as domestic soybean stocks contribute a larger component of soybean meal consumption. Soybean exports for Brazil and Argentina are forecast higher but only partly offset a reduction for the United States.

SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is decreased 251,000 short tons, raw value, compared with last month. Carry-in stocks are reduced mainly due to data revisions in Sweetener Market Data, which lower 2011/12 ending stocks. Imports from Mexico are decreased due to higher sugar consumption and carryout stocks in Mexico. Total use is unchanged.

COTTON: The U.S. 2012/13 cotton supply and demand estimates include larger production and ending stocks compared with last month. Production is raised 651,000 bales to 17.7 million, up nearly 4 percent, based on USDA’s first crop survey. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports remain forecast at 12.1 million bales, despite the larger supply, due to reduced import demand by China. Ending stocks are now forecast at 5.5 million bales, equal to 35 percent of total use. The range for the marketing year average price received by producers is narrowed 1 cent on each end to 61 to 79 cents per pound.

This month’s world 2012/13 cotton estimates also show larger supplies and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised nearly 2.0 million bales in China as a result of adjustments to 2011/12 which both increase imports and reduce consumption. The higher China stocks are partially offset by lower beginning stocks in Australia, Malaysia, Pakistan, and others, resulting in a net global increase of 1.1 million bales. World production is raised 300,000 bales, as increases for the United States, China, Burkina Faso, and Mali are partially offset by lower production for India, Brazil, Argentina, and others. World consumption is reduced 820,000 bales, due mainly to reductions for China and Pakistan. World trade is reduced slightly, as lower imports by China are partially offset by small increases for several countries. World stocks are raised to 74.7 million bales, including an increase of nearly 2.4 million bales in stocks held by China; lesser increases for the United States, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan are about offset by decreases for India, Australia, and Brazil. Projected China stocks of 34.2 million bales account for 46 percent of the world stocks forecast, and assume a net increase in China’s national cotton reserve of about 20 percent during 2012/13.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2012 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month but the forecast for 2013 is reduced as higher feed prices are expected to pressure producer returns. Beef production is raised from last month for both 2012 and 2013 due to higher expected placements in feedlots and increased dairy cow slaughter in late 2012 and during 2013. Carcass weights are forecast higher based on recent weight trends, but higher feed prices are expected to temper the increase and carcass weights are expected to be lower in 2013 compared to 2012. Pork production is reduced from last month for both 2012 and 2013. The reduction for 2012 reflects lower slaughter in the third quarter and lighter expected carcass weights through the year. As a result of high feed prices and recent hot weather, forecast pig crops are lowered in the second half of 2012 with declines continuing into 2013. Pork production is forecast lower in 2013 due to a combination of smaller hog supplies and lower expected carcass weights. Broiler production is raised in 2012 as production in the second quarter was higher than forecast last month and hatchery data points to higher than previously forecast levels of production in the third quarter. However, high feed costs are expected to result in lower broiler production in 2013. Turkey production is forecast lower in 2012 on lower second-quarter production. The production forecast for 2013 is reduced as feed prices squeeze producer returns. The egg production forecast is lowered for both 2012 and 2013.

Beef imports are reduced for 2012 based in part on weaker second-quarter data but are unchanged for 2013. Beef exports are reduced for both 2012 and 2013 as exports have slowed and tight supplies of pork and poultry are expected to support domestic beef demand. Pork and poultry exports are reduced for both 2012 and 2013.

Cattle prices are reduced from last month with the expectation of larger fed cattle marketings in both 2012 and 2013. However, prices are likely to remain strong in 2013 as total meat supplies are tight. Hog prices are raised in both years due to smaller hog supplies. Broiler prices are reduced in 2012 due to larger expected supplies and somewhat weaker demand, but for 2013, tighter supplies are expected to help support higher prices. Turkey and egg price forecasts are raised on lower production.

Milk production forecasts for 2012 and 2013 are reduced from last month as higher forecast feed prices are expected to pressure producer returns and encourage a more rapid decline in the cow herd. Milk per cow is also reduced due to tighter feed supplies. Imports for 2012 are raised on both a fat and skim-solids basis and are raised on a fat basis for 2013. Exports are raised for 2012 but exports for 2013 are reduced from last month on tighter supplies. Ending stocks are reduced. Product prices are forecast higher for 2012 and 2013 as tighter supplies support prices. With higher product prices, both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised. The all milk price is forecast at $17.55 to $17.75 per cwt for 2012 and $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt for 2013.

 23 
 on: August 11, 2012, 09:31:15 AM 
Started by mikey - Last post by Mustang Sally Farm
USDA Agricultural Prices

Reports» USDA Agricultural Prices» USDA Agricultural Prices - 31 July 2012

02 August 2012
USDA Agricultural Prices - 31 July 2012
The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in July, at 193 percent, based on 1990-1992=100, increased 11 points (6.0 percent) from June. The Crop Index is up 20 points (9.4 percent) but the Livestock Index decreased 1 point (0.7 percent).



July Farm Prices Received Index Advanced 11 Points

Producers received higher prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, and hogs and lower prices for cattle, grapes, broilers, and broccoli. In addition to prices, the overall index is also affected by the seasonal change based on a 3-year average mix of commodities producers sell. Increased monthly movement of wheat, grapes, grain sorghum, and hay offset the decreased marketing of milk, potatoes, cantaloupes, and corn.
 
The preliminary All Farm Products Index is up 10 points (5.5 percent) from July 2011. The Food Commodities Index, at 178, increased 7 points (4.1 percent) from last month and increased 3 points (1.7 percent) from July 2011.
 
Prices Paid Index Up 1 Point
 
The July Index of Prices Paid for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW) is 215 percent of the 1990-1992 average. The index is up 1 point (0.5 percent) from June and 11 points (5.4 percent) above July 2011. Higher prices in July for feed grains, concentrates, nitrogen, and LP gas offset lower prices for feeder cattle, feeder pigs, diesel, and potash & phosphate.


 

Prices Received by Farmers
 
The July All Farm Products Index is 193 percent of its 1990-1992 base, up 6.0 percent from the June index and 5.5 percent above the July 2011 index.
 
All crops: The July index, at 233, increased 9.4 percent from June and is 10 percent above July 2011. Index increases for feed grains & hay, food grains, and oilseeds more than offset the index decreases for fruits & nuts, commercial vegetables, and potatoes & dry beans.
 
Food grains: The July index, at 275, is 23 percent above the previous month and 17 percent above a year ago. The July price for all wheat, at $8.31 per bushel, is up $1.61 from June and $1.21 above July 2011.
 
Feed grains & hay: The July index, at 302, is up 12 percent from last month and 15 percent above a year ago. The corn price, at $7.36 per bushel, is up 99 cents from last month and is $1.03 above July 2011. The all hay price, at $184 per ton, is up $1.00 from June and up $14.00 from last July. Sorghum grain, at $12.00 per cwt, is $2.44 above June and up $1.60 from July last year.
 
Cotton, Upland: The July index, at 126, is down 1.6 percent from June and 7.4 percent below last year. The July price, at 76.6 cents per pound, is down 0.7 cent from the previous month and 5.9 cents below last July.
 
Oilseeds: The July index, at 278, is up 12 percent from June and 17 percent higher than July 2011. The soybean price, at $15.60 per bushel, increased $1.70 from June and is $2.40 above July 2011.
 
Fruits & nuts: The July index, at 156, is down 14 percent from June and 16 percent lower than a year ago. The price decreases for peaches and oranges more than offset the price increases for pears and apples.
 
Commercial vegetables: The July index, at 150, is down 6.2 percent from last month and 8.0 percent below July 2011. Price declines for tomatoes, broccoli, and lettuce more than offset price increases during July for snap beans, onions, and celery.
 
Potatoes & dry beans: The July index, at 179, is down 0.6 percent from last month and 23 percent below July 2011. The all potato price, at $9.76 per cwt, is down 17 cents from June and $4.43 lower than last July. The all dry bean price, at $43.80 per cwt, is down 40 cents from the previous month but $9.60 higher than July 2011.
 
Livestock and products: The July index, at 151, is 0.7 percent below last month and down 2.6 percent from July 2011. Compared with a year ago, prices are higher for cattle, broilers, eggs, hogs, turkeys, and calves. The price for milk is lower than last year.
 
Meat animals: The July index, at 158, is down 2.5 percent from last month but 3.9 percent higher than last year. The July hog price, at $73.80 per cwt, is up $3.60 from June and $2.10 higher than a year ago. The July beef cattle price of $116 per cwt is down $5.00 from last month but $5.00 higher than July 2011.
 
Dairy products: The July index, at 127, is up 2.4 percent from a month ago but 24 percent lower than July last year. The July all milk price of $16.60 per cwt is up 40 cents from last month but down $5.20 from July 2011.
 
Poultry & eggs: The July index, at 159, is down 1.9 percent from June but 6.0 percent above a year ago. The July market egg price, at 76.3 cents per dozen, increased 7.5 cents from June and is 7.9 cents above July 2011. The July broiler price, at 49.0 cents per pound, is down 2.0 cents from June but 2.0 cents above a year ago. The July turkey price, at 72.4 cents per pound, is down 1.5 cents from the previous month but up 4.9 cents from a year earlier.


 

 24 
 on: August 11, 2012, 09:29:58 AM 
Started by mikey - Last post by Mustang Sally Farm

Pork Commentary: US Drought Continues, Feed Price at Record High
08 August 2012


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.

CANADA - The US drought continues unabated, while grain and subsequent feed prices continue to touch record highs. It is miserable. The whole grain – feed scenario is playing havoc in the global meat protein sector. It’s a market that has the direction and pattern of a headless chicken, writes Jim Long.

Our Observations

Sow liquidation has started there is no doubt. Sows are being aborted and shipped. A.I. orders are being stopped as breeding has ended. Gilt orders are cancelled. The herd will be shrinking at a rate the last few weeks of 10,000 per week minimum.

 We will get criticism for saying there’s liquidation. Some will say it might encourage some to keep going the old ‘Last Man Standing’ economic position. We say it doesn’t matter what we write, the industry comprises scores of individuals with their own circumstances. They each will have their own scenario, some in control of their destiny and others controlled by the banks.

 Our opinion is few producers have much feed purchased ahead or price protected. Many got advice from the wizards who told them not to buy grain. Don’t take a position record crop is coming. It kind of made sense except it didn’t work. Now we have a swine sector, cattle industry, and poultry industry being bludgeoned by negative margins. We expect the US meat protein production sector will be losing $300 million plus per week by September. This market turnaround will lead to an unprecedented decrease in meat protein production by the second quarter next year as poultry, pork, and beef supplies crater.
 
The only hope for not having the meat sector from shrinking rapidly is the corn ethanol mandate which would up corn were altered which would up corn availability and lower its price!
 
The corn ethanol lobby doesn’t want mandates to be adjusted. They say it won’t lower the corn price. We say if corn prices won’t drop Mr Big Corn Ethanol Lobbyist why are you scared of the mandate being adjusted?
 
Misery loves company

 Brazil live hogs in the low 40 cent per pound US live weight. Train wreck.

In China the chicken industry having big bloodletting – China $12.00 per bushel corn has its consequences.
 
Great Britain expect the sow herd to decrease 10 per cent by Christmas (10 per cent in USA. – Canada would be 700,000 sows).
 
As we write we are on a plane to Germany. In the next three weeks we will be in Eastern Europe, Russia, China, and Japan. We will report our observations.
 
More than ever as an industry our destiny is linked by Global circumstances, and local matters but only so much. Our sense is America’s drought is affecting the whole world, not only North American meat supply will decline but so will the worlds. What we are living is a catastrophic drought event that will have implications for years on how we all do business. It will never be the same.
 
The flip side of the implosion is there is little doubt in our mind hog prices next summer will be the highest in history. We had $1.00 hogs this year, how will there not be less hogs next summer?
 

 25 
 on: August 11, 2012, 09:28:03 AM 
Started by mikey - Last post by Mustang Sally Farm

African Swine Fever Threatens All Europe
08 August 2012


ANALYSIS - The spread of African Swine Fever from the Caucasus to the east coast of the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine presents an alarming and concerning situation, writes Chris Harris.
 
The latest outbreak, discovered at the end of July and confirmed through PCR tests on samples taken from back yard pigs in the Zaporozhye region, is worrying because it represents not so much a gradual spread of the disease, but a dramatic jump.
 
The outbreak has occurred 170 kilometres from the Russian border. Until now the disease has been found mainly in the Tver, Ivanovo and Rostov regions to the north of Moscow, Bryansk and Smolensk to the west of Moscow and the Volgograd and Krasnodar regions to the south as well as outbreaks in Georgia.
 
The furthest the disease had been found outside these regions where it has largely been confined to back yard farms and wild boar populations - although larger pig farms have been infected and have suffered severe losses - has been in the St Petersburg area where the incidence was traced to illegally dumped pig carcases.
 
The leap across the border is likely to mean that similar illegal transportation of pigs or pig meat products has taken place or that transport has travelled from infected regions without proper biosecurity measures being carried out.
 
The most concerning aspect of the latest outbreak in Ukraine, where three pigs on a back yard farm dies for the disease and two others were destroyed is that the disease has now spread to another mainland Eastern European country.
 
The veterinary authorities in Russia have freely admitted that the disease is out of control in the country. Virtually every inspection made on farms in areas that are supposed to have tight biosecurity and sanitary measures in force has found breaches of the regulation.
 
Prosecutions are common and even officials within the official veterinary agency Rosselkhoznador at local level have been found wanting in their enforcement of control measures.
 
Earlier this year the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations' Chief Veterinary Officer Juan Lubroth warned: "African swine fever is fast becoming a global issue.
 
"It now poses an immediate threat to Europe and beyond. Countries need to be on the alert and to strengthen their preparedness and contingency plans."

Measures recommended for countries by FAO include risk analyses to evaluate the situation and assess potential consequences. These analyses should pave the way for fully-fledged contingency plans and provide the rationale for selecting disease-control strategies.

Over the last year Denmark, Spain, the Czech Republic, Belarus and Croatia have all held simulation exercises to plan out what action to take in the event of an outbreak.
 
And the concern over the present incidence in Ukraine has placed other EU countries on alert.
 
The German Agriculture Ministry this week warned: "This epidemic in the Russian Federation and other neighbouring states has been rife for a long time and there is a risk that it might be introduced into the European Union. Already a number of measures at national and EU level have been taken to prevent this.
 
"At the external borders of the EU increased checks are being carried out and contingency plans to combat animal diseases have been adjusted."
 
Measures that have been taken include the ban on the import of live pigs and pork products from affected countries into the EU.
 
However the German Agriculture Ministry has warned that the pathogen can be carried on food such as pork, raw sausages and salami if they are brought in from regions that are at risk and the disease can be passed on in food waste and through the wild boar population.
 
The Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection warns "Bring no such food from areas affected with the African swine fever."
 
Following the Ukraine outbreak a report from Dr Helen Roberts for the UK's Department of Agriculture Food and Rural Affairs also warns that its cause is likely to be the movement of pigs, pig products or vehicles.
 
"The source of disease is not known but if genetic sequencing is carried out and shows the close relationship with the strains in the Caucasus, that will indicate movement of products in all likelihood either by road or by sea into this area. This latest jump is not entirely surprising, but does raise the issue of controlling imports of animal products and instigating swill feeding bans in backyard premises," Dr Roberts reports.
 
She adds: "We consider that the risk of introduction by legal trade in susceptible livestock or products is negligible as EU rules prohibit imports of such trade from Ukraine. It is therefore important to uphold the ban on swill feeding, to ensure adequate cleansing and disinfection of vehicles returning from infected regions and safe disposal of catering waste.
 
"Importing meat or meat products (including ham, salami, sausages and other delicacies) from Ukraine as personal imports is illegal and it is important that this control measure is observed.
 
"As we have previously stated, countries and regions where certain risk factors, such as a high proportion of backyard pig farms, wild boar contact, suitable vector (Argasid tick) populations or practicing swill feeding are at greater risk than those EU MSs with mainly high biosecurity commercial pig farms (such as the UK). Nevertheless, the persistence and geographic spread of ASF makes it a threat to the whole of the EU and it is imperative that control measures are applied effectively and regular exchange of information and expertise is maintained."






Chris Harris, Editor-in-Chief

 26 
 on: August 11, 2012, 09:26:27 AM 
Started by mikey - Last post by Mustang Sally Farm
From what I have been told lately,expect higher livestock feed prices coming.Appears the American corn export forecast will be lower than expected and with world demand for corn as livestock feed,higher prices to follow along with general food prices also.Not good news for livestock producers who rely on commercial off the self concentrates like ourselves.Those who are in a position to form their own pellets,good for you and maybe the right timing.One of the problems with higher feed prices is that people will sell off their goats in order to save money,not good news for a entry level livestock venture like goats.

 27 
 on: August 10, 2012, 11:15:00 PM 
Started by baki - Last post by James Copiado
Doc sa anong age ba ng baboy ang vaccination ng hog cholera at ano pang mga vaccine na dapat ibigay sa mga baboy .....

 28 
 on: August 10, 2012, 07:18:15 PM 
Started by nemo - Last post by rene1967
hi Doc,
pwede rin bang makahingi ng sow-- fattening calculator.
Salamat and more power to you

 29 
 on: August 10, 2012, 11:33:41 AM 
Started by doc rock - Last post by doc rock
feeds is 78-80 percent of the total expenses in livestock production, wherein it can dictates the over all performance of the whole production, but always remember management and chicks quality are also big
factors to considered. here are some points to consider to check if your feeds is in good quality:

1). survey your area on what feeds is mostly use by raisers/ farmers.
     so that you have an idea on its performance.

2). upon delivery of the feeds check the production date so that you are sure that your feeds is
     always fresh.

3). if the delivered feeds is pelleted or crumble always check the percent of fines too much of it could affect feeds consumed, thus target weight is also affected.

4). check for aroma some farm owner believes that aroma of the feed could increase feed consume.

5). check the size of pelleted feeds size could also affect the feeds consumption.

6). always check the reaction of your flock in feeds thru feeds refusal, wet drops, and FCR. but always remember feeds are not always liable for this reaction, check for any factors like management during brooding, weather, bacterial or viral infections, of mostly nutritional incompatibilities or over dosage.

7). have a regular monitoring especially in toxin levels of the feeds.






Rock I. Lamit DVM
Poultry consultant
PRC lic.# 7672

mobile num. 09175936316

 30 
 on: August 10, 2012, 08:06:04 AM 
Started by doc rock - Last post by doc rock
yup i conduct seminars as speakers.

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