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Author Topic: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities  (Read 22565 times)
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Mustang Sally Farm
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« Reply #225 on: June 28, 2012, 09:47:52 AM »

Soybean Fundamentals Remain Strong
26 June 2012

US - US soybean market fundamentals have been strong for an extended period of time, says University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.

"The strong fundamental factors have included record large exports in 2009-10 and 2010-11 as Chinese demand expanded, a reduction in US soybean acreage in 2011, a relatively low US average yield in 2011, intentions to reduce US acreage again in 2012, and a very small soybean harvest in South America this year," Professor Good said. "These strong market fundamentals continue in the form of a rapid pace of consumption and concerns about the size of the 2012 US crop."

Good reported that soybean prices began moving higher in July 2010, starting from about $9.50. July 2012 soybean futures reached a high of about $14.70 in late August 2011, declined to a low near $11.25 in mid-December 2011, and reached a high of $15.12 in early May 2012.

Prices have been very choppy the past two months, but the July futures contract is now trading within about .30 cents of the early May high. November 2012 futures prices have been lower than July futures but have followed a similar pattern and are now trading at a contract high near $14.30.

"The pace of the domestic soybean crush started slowly this year," Professor Good said. "The National Oilseed Processors Association reported that its members crushed 7.7 per cent fewer soybeans in the first quarter of the 2011-12 marketing year than in the same quarter the previous year."

 Crush during the second quarter, however, was 2.3 per cent larger and crush during the third quarter was 7.2 per cent larger than in the respective quarters last year. Crush during the first three quarters of the year was 0.3 per cent larger than the crush last year. For the year, the USDA projects the crush to be 0.7 per cent larger than during the 2010-11 marketing year, he said.

"It now appears that the crush may exceed that projection for several reasons. First, crush was relatively small in the fourth quarter of the 2010-11 marketing year. Second, the pace of domestic soybean meal consumption has been expanding. Third, the small South American crop may support US soybean meal exports above the current projection. The crush may be about 10 million bushels larger than the current projection of 1.66 billion bushels," Professor Good said.

At the beginning of the marketing year, the USDA projected US exports at 1.415 billion bushels, said Professor Good. The projection was reduced as the year progressed and was at 1.275 billion bushels by January 2012.

"The forecast, however, increased beginning in April and now stands at 1.335 billion bushels," he said. "Total export sales already exceed that projection, which is common, and exports will need to average about 13 million bushels per week during the last 10 weeks of the year to reach the projection."

The current pace of exports is a little slower than the needed pace, but exports are still likely to reach the projected level. While the pace of exports has slowed in a typical seasonal pattern, sales for export during the 2012-13 marketing year are record large, underscoring the strength in Chinese demand.

"The USDA will update the projections of consumption and ending stocks for both marketing years on July 11. The estimate of June 1 stocks, to be released on June 29, will provide some confirmation about the pace of consumption and likely year-ending stocks," Professor Good said.

With prospects for relatively small year-ending soybean stocks, the focus is quickly turning to the prospective size of the 2012 US crop. An estimate of planted and harvested acreage will be available with the USDA's 29 June Acreage report.

"With the soybean price rally that occurred this spring, it would not be surprising if acreage exceeded intentions reported in March," Professor Good said. "While acreage estimates will influence production prospects, the major focus will be on yield prospects."

In the June WASDE report, the USDA projected a US average yield of 43.9 bushels and 2012-13 marketing year-ending stocks at what is generally considered to be a minimum level of 140 million bushels. Good said that the trend yield for 2012 is 43.4 bushels, 1.9 bushels above the 2011 average yield.

"Continuation of stressful weather in the central and eastern growing areas along with declining crop condition ratings suggest that the 2012 yield could be below trend again in 2012," Professor Good said. "A shortfall in production would require that consumption during the year ahead be reduced from the current USDA projection of 3.255 billion bushels. The recent price rally is in recognition of the rationing that may be required.

"Unless weather and crop conditions improve soon, which does not appear likely, additional price strength is expected," Professor Good said. "Talk of the 2008 futures price peak near $16.60 has surfaced. While prices at that level are not yet justified, they are within the range that we have projected for the 'new era' of prices that began in 2007."
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« Reply #226 on: July 07, 2012, 10:46:29 AM »

Soybean Farmers Committed to Feeding the World Sustainably
06 July 2012

US - US soybean farmers are well aware of the United Nations projection that global food production will have to rise by 50 per cent by the year 2030 to meet the demands of a growing population. Soybeans are emerging as a critical crop of a healthy and abundant food to feed the world. Soy products provide healthful food in the form of tofu, edamame, soy milk, and other vegetarian options.

Most soybean meal, however, is used in animal feed to create valuable protein, such as poultry, pork and fish. The Soy Aquaculture Alliance, an organization that coordinates research and support for soy use in aquaculture, states that the most efficient use of soy in animal feed is in fish feed, with one to 1.5 lbs. of feed producing one pound of fish. In comparison, it takes up to 1.9 lbs. of feed to produce one pound of poultry and 2.5 lbs. of feed to produce one pound of pork.
Aquaculture presents a huge opportunity to feed the world one of the healthiest foods on the planet – fish and seafood rich in heart-healthy Omega-3s. In 2011, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization reported that, worldwide, more fish for human consumption is being produced by aquaculture than is being wild-caught, and that the wild harvest is unlikely to ever increase again due to over-fishing.
Also in 2011, Conservation International published a study that showed how aquaculture has the least environmental impact than any other means of protein production globally. In the last 10 years, it has been proven that, when done correctly, ocean aquaculture has no significant impact on the ocean environment, while producing high quality, healthful marine fish that are in high demand from chefs and consumers.
Soybean farmers continue to help the aquaculture industry develop environmentally-sound practices, whether fish are farmed in the sea or on land in tanks. The sustainability of global aquaculture depends on renewable and efficient sources of fish feed ingredients, such as US soybeans. Soybean meal and soy oil can replace half to nearly all of the fishmeal and fish oil in feeds for many species, easing pressure on capture fishery resources.
Soybean meal has the best amino acid complex of all of the plant protein ingredients and is highly digestible to most cultured fish and shrimp species. Every fish species has different nutritional requirements, and obviously, there will not be one feed ingredient that meets the needs of all farmed fish. The aim of the soy industry is to provide viable, affordable alternatives to the limited resource of fishmeal and fish oil, which can scale up for a growing aquaculture industry. Continuing research and development of soy-based feeds is yielding very promising results, as well as research in other alternative proteins.
The US soy industry is made up of hundreds of thousands of family farmers who are working land that has been in their families for many generations. Soybean farmers take their stewardship of the land seriously, and have a long history of increasing production while decreasing environmental impacts. Soybeans have always been an environmentally beneficial crop to rotate after harvest of other crops, such as corn, as they fix nitrates in the soil. With advances in biotechnology in the last decade, soybean farmers have been able to greatly increase the environmental sustainability of their farms.
The biggest environmental impact has been the adoption of no-till farming, with herbicide-tolerant crops that allow farmers to completely eliminate plowing on their fields. No-till farming results in better soil health and conservation, improved water retention, decreased soil erosion and decreased herbicide runoff. In fact, no-till farming has led to a global reduction of carbon dioxide, which, in one year, is the equivalent of removing almost seven million cars from the road. Thanks to biotechnology, global pesticide applications have decreased 379 million pounds in the last decade, improving water quality both through less pesticide and herbicide application and less runoff through fields. Studies have shown that this encourages the growth of habitats that support different varieties of wildlife.
US soybean farmers remain committed to environmental stewardship of land resources, conservation of ocean resources, and providing consumers with safe, healthy and abundant food.
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« Reply #227 on: July 15, 2012, 05:16:11 AM »

Poor Growing Conditions Affect Grain Supply and Demand
12 July 2012

US - Dry weather continued to influence the crop outlook in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released today by the Agriculture Department, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The WASDE report showed smaller projected yields from June estimates across the board for US soybean and corn crops, despite increased planting acreage from last year. It also showed a decrease in projected ending stocks and feed use. According to AFBF economist Todd Davis, these trends will likely continue through the year.
“The reductions in the July report reflect the World Agricultural Outlook Board belief that the drought has greatly reduced the production potential for corn and soybeans,” said Dr Davis.
Corn yield was estimated at 146 bushels per acre, reduced by 20 bushels per acre from the June projections. The 2012-13 corn production estimate was subsequently affected, dropping to 12.97 billion bushels, a 1.82 billion bushel decrease.
The projected decreases in corn production will also have consequences on feed use. Ethanol use is also projected down 100 million bushels from June and export demand in corn has been reduced 300 million bushels.
The average projected soybean yield fell by 3.4 bushels per acre from June to 40.5 in July. Despite an increase in projected plantings, the substantial yield reduction pulled down this month’s estimate of production by 155 million bushels from June to 3.05 billion bushels. This number is slightly lower than the 2011 crop.
“Expect a lot of volatility in the coming year,” said Dr Davis. “As the crop size declines, USDA will make further cuts to projected use while prices climb to both curb demand and encourage production in 2013.”
The report projected increased corn prices of $1.30 per bushel from the June estimate to $5.90 per bushel for the 2012-13 marketing year.
According to Dr Davis, tighter projected stocks are to blame for the increase in prices. The 2012-13 ending stocks for corn are projected to decline 698 million bushels from June’s estimate to 1.183 billion bushels in July’s report. Soybean ending stocks don’t look any better, down 10 million bushels from June estimates to a current projection of 130 million bushels.
A report due out in August will have the first survey-based measure of crop yield potential. USDA will conduct producer surveys and field analysis throughout the fall and will then have a better idea of the damage done to the 2012 corn and soybean crop, according to Dr Davis.
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« Reply #228 on: July 29, 2012, 12:20:44 AM »

Feed Grain Prices Surge Throughout July
27 July 2012
AUSTRALIA - Australian feed grain prices increased dramatically in July, underpinned by developments in international markets, reports Meat and Livestock Australia.

Feed wheat prices delivered Sydney averaged $286/tonne during July, increasing 18 per cent on the same time last year and surpassing the A$300/tonne mark in the final week of July for the first time since the middle of October 2010 (The Land).
In what is being described as the worst drought in 50 years, the ongoing hot conditions across the US corn belt continues to drive the rise in grain prices, while dry weather in Russia and wet conditions throughout the UK is also placing pressure on feed grain supplies.
Feed barley ($248/tonne) and triticale ($272/tonne) prices also rose during July, increasing 11 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively, on the same month last year. While the surging grain prices are great news for grain producers, the rising prices will challenge those livestock producers reliant on supplementary feed, particularly those in the lotfeeding industry.
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« Reply #229 on: August 03, 2012, 08:53:56 AM »

CME: Corn Futures Closed Lower Tuesday
01 August 2012

US - September Corn finished down 13 1/4 at 806 3/4, 18 1/4 off the high and 1 1/2 up from the low. December Corn closed down 8 at 806. This was 4 1/2 up from the low and 14 1/2 off the high.

December corn traded slightly lower into the closing bell and managed to hold the 800 level on the day. The lower trade reflects profit taking following yesterday's sharply higher trade.

The Midwest weather forecast remains unfavorable for fall crops, with 90-100 degree temperatures expected for growing areas in the Southwestern Corn Belt this week and part of next week.
Scattered showers are also expected in the Midwest to finish out the week but soil conditions are so poor that the light rainfall will provide limited relief. Most of the corn crop is beyond repair at this point, but cooler temperatures may be able to stabilize yield loss for some areas.
Taiwan reportedly bought 60,800 tonnes of Brazilian corn overnight, which may be adding pressure to the corn complex today.

Argentina also announced that they would enact a new export policy that grants farmers permission to sell their whole corn harvest as they set single year export quotas, instead of the incremental quota system currently in place.

The market is still trying to gauge yield and production expectations for this year's corn crop ahead of the USDA report next week. Current market conditions suggest a corn yield near 129 bushels/acre with some estimates coming in near 120-122.
Outside markets were mixed today with the US Dollar trading lower and crude oil sharply lower on the day. September Rice finished down 0.22 at 15.615, 0.135 off the high and equal to the low.

Soybean Futures Closed Lower

August Soybeans finished down 4 3/4 at 1721, 21 off the high and 9 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 2 1/2 at 1641. This was 11 1/4 up from the low and 22 1/4 off the high.

August Soymeal closed down 1.4 at 544.9. This was 3.5 up from the low and 9.3 off the high. August Soybean Oil finished down 0.02 at 52.55, 0.51 off the high and 0.4 up from the low. November soybeans traded slightly lower into the close but traded both sides of the unchanged today.

Early pressure was seen just prior to the start of pit trading, but the market found good support near the lows of the day. A late day sell off was linked to spillover pressure from a sharply lower wheat market and profit taking in corn.

The Midwest weather outlook for the next 2 weeks is offering support. Scattered showers are expected in the northern plains, parts of the central Midwest, and the eastern Corn Belt over the next week. Accumulation is expected to be light and be of very little benefit to soybean crops.
Blistering temperatures will move into the Southwestern Corn Belt today and tomorrow. Cooler temperatures are expected early next week, which may provide some relief to crops. Another round of above normal temperatures is forecasted for later next week.
Current price levels and crop reports suggest the market is trading a yield between 38-39 bushel/acre. Without cooler and wetter conditions in the next two weeks, soybean crops are susceptible to further yield deterioration. Outside markets were mixed today with the US Dollar trading lower and crude oil sharply lower on the day.

Wheat Futures Closed Lower

September Wheat finished down 26 1/4 at 888 1/4, 31 1/4 off the high and 2 1/4 up from the low. December Wheat closed down 24 3/4 at 902 1/2.

This was 2 up from the low and 29 off the high. September Chicago wheat traded sharply lower into the close of today's session as traders took profits following gains this week.

The wheat market began the day weaker, but losses were accelerated after corn began to tumble from it's record highs.

Russia's Agriculture Ministry may cut it's 2012 grain crop production forecast to 75 million tonnes from it's current estimate of 80 million tonnes but traders brushed off the news after the Prime Minister of Russia said he did not expect a domestic deficit for grain despite the lower production estimates.

Jordan announced a purchase of 100,000 tonnes of wheat from their tender issued last week. The official origin is unknown, but traders believe the seller likely came from the Black Sea region.
Outside markets were mixed with the US Dollar trading lower and crude oil trade sharply lower on the day. September Oats closed down 4 at 380 1/4. This was 2 1/4 up from the low and 5 off the high.
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« Reply #230 on: August 11, 2012, 09:32:25 AM »


Reports» USDA WASDE» USDA WASDE - August 2012

10 August 2012
USDA WASDE - August 2012


WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 54 million bushels with higher forecast production and an increase in projected imports. Production is forecast 44 million bushels higher with increased yields for winter wheat, durum, and other spring wheat. Feed and residual use is projected 20 million bushels higher, reflecting the tighter supply situation for corn. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 34 million bushels higher. The projected range for the 2012/13 seasonaverage farm price is raised substantially to $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel, compared with $6.20 to $7.40 per bushel last month, as tighter foreign wheat supplies and sharply higher corn prices raise price prospects for the remainder of the marketing year.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 2.1 million tons lower mostly reflecting a 3.7- million-ton reduction in foreign production. A small increase in 2012/13 world beginning stocks is partly offsetting with 2011/12 updates to trade and use for a number of countries. Lower expected production in the FSU-12 accounts for most of this month’s decline in world output. Production is lowered 6.0 million tons for Russia on reduced area and yield prospects due to July heat and dryness across most of the spring wheat growing areas. Spring wheat in adjoining areas of Kazakhstan was also affected by the same adverse weather reducing production prospects 2.0 million tons. Other reductions this month include a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Turkey based on lower reported yields, a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina reflecting lower expected area, a 0.3- million-ton reduction for Syria, and a 0.2-million-ton reduction for EU-27. Production is raised 2.9 million tons for India, 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, and 0.4 million tons each for Canada and Uzbekistan.

Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is raised 3.2 million tons as a number of countries are expected to shift some of their livestock and poultry feeding from corn to wheat. Wheat feeding is raised 1.0 million tons each for EU-27 and Ukraine, 0.5 million tons each for South Korea and Vietnam, 0.3 million tons for Israel, and 0.2 million tons each for India and Thailand. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Russia with lower expected production.

Global wheat imports for 2012/13 are raised with increases for several countries, in part, to support higher wheat feeding. Imports are raised 0.5 million tons each for EU-27, South Korea, and Vietnam, and raised 0.3 million tons for Israel. Imports are also raised 0.3 million tons for Brazil. Global 2012/13 exports are raised, but much of the shift among countries also reflects reduced export prospects for Russia, which is lowered 4.0 million tons. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, 1.0 million tons each for Canada and EU-27, 0.5 million tons each for Australia, Brazil, and Pakistan. Exports are lowered 0.7 million tons for Argentina, 0.5 million tons for Turkey, and 0.2 million tons for Uruguay. World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 5.3 million tons lower at 177.2 million.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected sharply lower again this month with corn production forecast 2.2 billion bushels lower and sorghum production forecast 92 million bushels lower. The forecast U.S. corn yield is reduced 22.6 bushels per acre to 123.4 bushels as extreme heat and dryness continued, and in many areas worsened, during July across the Plains and Corn Belt. As forecast, the 2012/13 corn yield would be the lowest since 1995/96. Corn area harvested for grain is also lowered, down 1.5 million acres from the last month’s forecast that was based on the June Acreage report. The U.S. sorghum yield is forecast 16.3 bushels per acre lower at 48.6 bushels as drought stressed sorghum from the Central Plains to the Corn Belt. Sorghum harvested area is also lowered slightly.

U.S. corn production for 2012/13 is forecast at 10.8 billion bushels, the lowest since 2006/07. Relatively small increases in carryin and imports only partly offset this month’s substantial reduction in crop size. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 118 million bushels higher with lower expected exports, reduced corn use for ethanol, and a small increase in imports. Imports for 2012/13 are also raised, up 45 million bushels to 75 million, reflecting strong domestic corn prices and competitively priced foreign supplies. Total U.S. corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected down 2.0 billion bushels and at a 9-year low.

This month’s large reduction in U.S. corn supplies and the sharply higher price outlook are expected to further reduce 2012/13 corn usage. Total use is projected 1.5 billion bushels lower and at 11.2 billion would be a 6-year low. The biggest reduction again this month is for feed and residual disappearance, projected down 725 million bushels. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is also projected lower, down 470 million bushels, mostly reflecting a 400-million-bushel reduction in corn used to produce ethanol. Reductions in other food and industrial uses account for the remainder of the FSI decline. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 650 million bushels, 533 million lower and the smallest carryout since 1995/96. The 2012/13 season-average farm price for corn is projected at a record $7.50 to $8.90 per bushel, up sharply from the $5.40 to $6.40 per bushel projected in July. Projected farm prices for the other feed grains are also raised.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are reduced 56.5 million tons mostly reflecting the forecast 55.7-million-ton reduction in the U.S. corn crop. Larger 2012/13 corn beginning stocks in the United States and Brazil partly offset lower U.S. and foreign coarse grain production. Brazil corn beginning stocks are raised 2.8 million tons based on higher reported production for 2011/12.

Foreign corn production for 2012/13 is mostly unchanged with increases for China, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa mostly offset by reductions for EU-27, Ukraine, India, Serbia, Russia, Croatia, Moldova, and Canada. Foreign sorghum production is lowered 0.3 million tons with a reduction for India. Reductions in barley production in FSU-12, EU-27, and Turkey lower global barley production 1.1 million tons. A 2.5-million-ton reduction in India millet output also lowers world coarse grain supplies.

Global 2012/13 corn trade is projected sharply lower this month in response to tighter U.S. supplies and higher prices. Corn imports are lowered for China, EU-27, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Vietnam, Israel, Colombia, Peru, and Syria. In addition to the United States, corn exports are reduced for Ukraine, EU-27, and Serbia. Partly offsetting are export increases for Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and Canada. Global corn consumption is projected 38.9 million tons lower with the United States accounting for more than three-fourths of the reduction. Foreign corn feeding drops 8.8 million tons with only part of the decline offset by higher wheat feeding. Corn feeding is lowered for EU-27, India, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Ukraine, Vietnam, Israel, and Indonesia. Global corn ending stocks are projected 10.8 million tons lower with increases for China, Brazil, and Argentina only partly making up for the large reduction in the United States and smaller reductions in a number of other countries.

RICE: U.S. total rice supplies for 2012/13 are projected at 244.4 million cwt, down 2.5 million from last month. Projected beginning stocks, imports, and production are each lowered from a month ago. USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2012/13 U.S. rice crop is 190.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million from last month's projection, but up nearly 3 percent from the previous year. Average all rice yield is forecast at 7,196 pounds per acre, down 39 pounds per acre from last month’s projection, but up nearly 2 percent from last year. Long-grain production is forecast at 132.1 million cwt, down 1 percent from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 57.9 million, up less than 1 percent from a month ago. The all rice import projection is lowered 0.5 million cwt to 21.0 million due in part to an expected slower pace of long-grain imports from South and Southeast Asia, a continuation of the trend observed in 2011/12. All rice beginning stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 33.5 million because of an increase in the 2011/12 export estimate to 102.0 million.

U.S. total rice use for 2012/13 is projected at 216.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from last month. All rice domestic and residual use is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 124.0 million, all in longgrain. The all rice export projection is unchanged at 92.0 million cwt, however, the rough rice component is raised 1.0 million and offset by a 1.0 million reduction in combined milled- and brownexports (rough-equivalent basis). The long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain export projections are unchanged at 60.0 million cwt and 32.0 million, respectively. U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 28.4 million cwt, down 0.5 million from last month, and 15 percent below the previous year.

The 2012/13 long-grain U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. The 2012/13 all rice price is projected at $14.10 to $15.10 per cwt, up 30 cents per cwt on each end of the range. A smaller crop and tighter supplies, particularly for long-grain rice, are expected to support prices. The all rice stocks-to-use ratio at 13.2 percent in 2012/13 is the lowest since 2007/08, and the long-grain rice stocks-to-use ratio at 10.6 percent is the lowest since 2003/04.

Lower projected global 2012/13 total supply more than offsets a slight decrease in total use resulting in an expected decrease in ending stocks. Global production is lowered 1.9 million tons to 463.2 million, due primarily to forecast reductions for India, Brazil, and North Korea, which are partially offset by increases for China and South Korea. Beginning stocks are increased 0.8 million tons due to a 1.0-million-ton increase for India, which is partially offset by reductions for Brazil and Indonesia. World consumption is reduced 0.4 million tons. A 1.0-million-ton increase in China offsets an identical reduction for India. Consumption forecasts are also lowered for Brazil, North Korea, and the United States, partially offset by an increase for Indonesia. Global trade is changed little from a month ago. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 101.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, and a decrease of 3.2 million from the previous year. The largest stocks reductions for 2012/13 are for Brazil and Indonesia, each just over 0.3 million tons.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 83.4 million tons, down 9.4 million from last month, as a lower soybean production estimate is only partly offset by higher crops of peanuts and cottonseed. Soybean production for 2012/13 is projected at 2.7 billion bushels, down 358 million due to lower harvested area and yields. Harvested area is projected at 74.6 million acres, down 0.7 million from the July projection. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 36.1 bushels per acre is 4.4 bushels below last month’s projection and 5.4 bushels below last year’s yield. Soybean supplies for 2012/13 are projected 12 percent below last month to a 9-year low on lower production and reduced beginning stocks. Soybean exports are reduced 260 million bushels to 1.11 billion bushels. Soybean crush is also reduced as higher prices reduce domestic use and prospective exports for both soybean meal and oil. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 115 million bushels, down 15 million.

U.S. changes for 2011/12 include increased soybean crush and exports and reduced ending stocks. Crush is increased 15 million bushels to 1.69 billion reflecting increased exports and domestic use of soybean meal. Soybean exports are increased 10 million to 1.35 billion bushels reflecting strong shipments in recent weeks. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 145 million bushels, down 25 million.

Soybean and product prices for 2012/13 are all raised to record levels this month, reflecting the impact of sharply reduced soybean and corn production. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $15.00 to $17.00 per bushel, up $2.00 on both ends. Soybean meal prices are projected at $460 to $490 per short ton compared with $365 to $395 last month. Soybean oil prices are projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 457.3 million tons, down 8.5 million tons from last month. Reductions for soybeans, sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed are only partly offset by increased rapeseed production. Lower soybean production is projected for the United States, Canada, and EU-27 due to lower yields resulting from hot, dry weather. Soybean production is raised for Brazil and Paraguay as producers are expected to respond to sharply higher prices with increased plantings. Brazil’s soybean production is projected up 3 million tons at a record 81 million. Sunflowerseed production is reduced for EU-27, Ukraine, and Moldova due to the effects of hot, dry weather during the reproductive stage of the crops. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for EU-27 and Ukraine, lower rapeseed production for China and Australia, lower peanut production for India and Indonesia, and lower cottonseed production for India.

Global oilseed and meal production, trade, and consumption for 2012/13 are all reduced this month reflecting the impact of reduced oilseed supplies and higher prices. Projected soybean imports for China are reduced 1.5 million tons to 59.5 million as domestic soybean stocks contribute a larger component of soybean meal consumption. Soybean exports for Brazil and Argentina are forecast higher but only partly offset a reduction for the United States.

SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is decreased 251,000 short tons, raw value, compared with last month. Carry-in stocks are reduced mainly due to data revisions in Sweetener Market Data, which lower 2011/12 ending stocks. Imports from Mexico are decreased due to higher sugar consumption and carryout stocks in Mexico. Total use is unchanged.

COTTON: The U.S. 2012/13 cotton supply and demand estimates include larger production and ending stocks compared with last month. Production is raised 651,000 bales to 17.7 million, up nearly 4 percent, based on USDA’s first crop survey. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports remain forecast at 12.1 million bales, despite the larger supply, due to reduced import demand by China. Ending stocks are now forecast at 5.5 million bales, equal to 35 percent of total use. The range for the marketing year average price received by producers is narrowed 1 cent on each end to 61 to 79 cents per pound.

This month’s world 2012/13 cotton estimates also show larger supplies and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised nearly 2.0 million bales in China as a result of adjustments to 2011/12 which both increase imports and reduce consumption. The higher China stocks are partially offset by lower beginning stocks in Australia, Malaysia, Pakistan, and others, resulting in a net global increase of 1.1 million bales. World production is raised 300,000 bales, as increases for the United States, China, Burkina Faso, and Mali are partially offset by lower production for India, Brazil, Argentina, and others. World consumption is reduced 820,000 bales, due mainly to reductions for China and Pakistan. World trade is reduced slightly, as lower imports by China are partially offset by small increases for several countries. World stocks are raised to 74.7 million bales, including an increase of nearly 2.4 million bales in stocks held by China; lesser increases for the United States, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan are about offset by decreases for India, Australia, and Brazil. Projected China stocks of 34.2 million bales account for 46 percent of the world stocks forecast, and assume a net increase in China’s national cotton reserve of about 20 percent during 2012/13.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2012 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month but the forecast for 2013 is reduced as higher feed prices are expected to pressure producer returns. Beef production is raised from last month for both 2012 and 2013 due to higher expected placements in feedlots and increased dairy cow slaughter in late 2012 and during 2013. Carcass weights are forecast higher based on recent weight trends, but higher feed prices are expected to temper the increase and carcass weights are expected to be lower in 2013 compared to 2012. Pork production is reduced from last month for both 2012 and 2013. The reduction for 2012 reflects lower slaughter in the third quarter and lighter expected carcass weights through the year. As a result of high feed prices and recent hot weather, forecast pig crops are lowered in the second half of 2012 with declines continuing into 2013. Pork production is forecast lower in 2013 due to a combination of smaller hog supplies and lower expected carcass weights. Broiler production is raised in 2012 as production in the second quarter was higher than forecast last month and hatchery data points to higher than previously forecast levels of production in the third quarter. However, high feed costs are expected to result in lower broiler production in 2013. Turkey production is forecast lower in 2012 on lower second-quarter production. The production forecast for 2013 is reduced as feed prices squeeze producer returns. The egg production forecast is lowered for both 2012 and 2013.

Beef imports are reduced for 2012 based in part on weaker second-quarter data but are unchanged for 2013. Beef exports are reduced for both 2012 and 2013 as exports have slowed and tight supplies of pork and poultry are expected to support domestic beef demand. Pork and poultry exports are reduced for both 2012 and 2013.

Cattle prices are reduced from last month with the expectation of larger fed cattle marketings in both 2012 and 2013. However, prices are likely to remain strong in 2013 as total meat supplies are tight. Hog prices are raised in both years due to smaller hog supplies. Broiler prices are reduced in 2012 due to larger expected supplies and somewhat weaker demand, but for 2013, tighter supplies are expected to help support higher prices. Turkey and egg price forecasts are raised on lower production.

Milk production forecasts for 2012 and 2013 are reduced from last month as higher forecast feed prices are expected to pressure producer returns and encourage a more rapid decline in the cow herd. Milk per cow is also reduced due to tighter feed supplies. Imports for 2012 are raised on both a fat and skim-solids basis and are raised on a fat basis for 2013. Exports are raised for 2012 but exports for 2013 are reduced from last month on tighter supplies. Ending stocks are reduced. Product prices are forecast higher for 2012 and 2013 as tighter supplies support prices. With higher product prices, both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised. The all milk price is forecast at $17.55 to $17.75 per cwt for 2012 and $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt for 2013.
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