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[Mustang Sally Farm]

News Round Up

 Compared with the same period of last year, the EU achieved export growth of 14% in fresh and frozen pigmeat during Q1 2012. Total shipments rose by 45,000t to 367,250t. Growth was helped by greater deliveries to Russia, the EU’s principal customer, which increased by 12.5% to 83,000t, while the EU more than doubled its exports to China. Strong growth into the Chinese market meant that deliveries took a 9.5% share of total EU exports, compared with less than 3% in Q1 2011. By contrast, shipments to Korea declined by 11.5% to 43,500t as its domestic production continues to recover from the FMD outbreak at the start of 2011. At 28,000t, Hong Kong bought marginally less pork than a year earlier.

 French exports of pigmeat fell by 2% year-on-year in Q1 2012 to 115,300t. However, sales revenues increased as the average price rose by 9%. The decline in volumes exported was driven by lower shipments to Russia and Asia as other EU Member States bought the same volume of French pigmeat on aggregate as they had in Q1 2011. In the EU, strong growth in deliveries to Germany and Belgium were offset by a decline in sales to Italy, Greece and Spain. France imported more pigmeat than a year earlier during Q1. Spain is France’s largest supplier and it increased its deliveries by 10% to 68,400t, maintaining a 75% share of the market. The change in French pigmeat trade volumes reflects lower production volumes coupled with increased domestic demand. A 3% lower output of pigmeat in Q1 and a 1% increase in consumption limited the volumes of pigmeat that could be exported, and meant that more product had to be bought from fellow EU Member States.

 In Sweden, pig production fell sharply in Q1 2012. Slaughterings were down 10% on the year at 683,000 head, well below the level anticipated by the EU Commission. Production volumes have been restricted this year by significant herd liquidations during 2011 as producers left the industry due to the struggle to compete with cheaper imports from countries such as Denmark and the Netherlands. The Swedish pig sector’s competitiveness has also suffered from the strong performance of the national economy as this has strengthened its currency against the Euro. However, the EU-wide sow stall ban at the beginning of 2013 may provide some support to the competitiveness of the Swedish pig sector, as its welfare regulations are currently more stringent than in many other Member States.

 A sign of the rebalancing of the EU pig sector ahead of the sow stall ban has come from the Czech Republic. According to its agriculture ministry, the Czech Republic is now 94% compliant with the future regulations and most farmers not willing to invest in new housing have already left the industry. Census data showed that the Czech pig herd contracted by 10% in the year to April 1 2012 and its sow herd declined by 11%. A smaller pig population meant that pigmeat production fell in Q1 with volumes down 9% to 60,000t, and tighter supplies pushed producer prices up by 20% year-on-

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Report Calls for Integrated Pig Meat Supply Chain
27 June 2012


UK - The British pig industry should follow a more integrated route to achieve better returns for producers.
 
A new report from the University of Manchester Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change says the UK's pig supply chain is in long term crisis and to turn it around the industry needs to organise itself through vertical integration to ensure the participants take responsibility for the health of the chain.
 
The better way, which delivers on broader economic and social objectives, is represented by the integrated national models of the Danish and Dutch pig industry) or the directly owned processing operations of Morrisons supermarket chain, which competes on price in the mass market and uses a higher proportion of British meat than any of the other major supermarkets, the report says.
 
"The Morrisons model aligns the interests of firm, supply chain and society through directly owned processing plants which run at full capacity and proves the benefits of plant loading," says the report.
 
"Our accounting research shows that Morrisons increases margins and reduces costs.
 
"Society gains through reduced import dependence, stable employment and the capacity to address animal welfare and climate change."
 
The research team, based at the ESRC funded CRESC research centre at the University of Manchester, says that the size of the national pig herd has declined by around 50 per cent over the past decade, while the UK has gone from 80 per cent self-sufficiency in pig meat to less than 50 per cent self-sufficiency.

The report says that the situation in the pig industry is a snapshot of the general economic ills facing the UK and that the situation in the pig industry worsens the UK's trade deficit and diminishes UK employment.
 
"This is a classic example of UK failure in tradable goods against North European competitors. The UK's growing volume of pig meat imports does not come from Eastern Europe or Asia, but from Denmark and the Netherlands, which provide over 50 per cent of the UK's bacon and produce more cheaply despite wages in meat processing, which are nearly double those in the UK."
 
The report calls for Government policies to recognise that ownership can lever changes in business practice by creating incentives and structures for new kinds of chain thinking.

"First, vertical integration of supermarkets with processors should be encouraged by targeted tax breaks for retailers who increase their value added," the report says.
 
"Second, horizontal integration should be encouraged by support for the creation of producer co-operatives and marketing assistance for artisan producers.
 
"These radical policies should be backed by increased powers for the Grocery Code Adjudicator to enforce contracts that give food manufacturers the security they need to improve their productivity and lower costs; and also to ban many forms of supermarket promotion which harm supermarket suppliers and do not benefit consumers."
 
The report has been broadly welcomed by the British pig sector.
 
"The report contains a number of innovative approaches to unlocking an obstacle to achieving a sustainable domestic pig meat industry which has existed for nearly two decades," said a British Pig Executive spokesman.
 
"While some recommendations may present difficulties politically to achieve, producers would be keen to engage.

"BPEX is investigating the possibility of a voluntary supply chain charter with retailers and foodservice companies which are genuinely working to develop partnerships with suppliers.

"The charter might contain specific tangible attributes such including clear objectives and how risks and rewards in achieving that objective are shared."

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Monday, July 02, 2012

Lower EU Sheep Meat Imports


The EU imported 17 per cent less sheepmeat during the quarter compared to the same period a year earlier. March shipments were down 10 per cent despite an earlier Easter in 2012.

Shipments from New Zealand were back by 15 per cent to 37,400 tonnes, reflecting tighter domestic supplies with lamb production running 3 per cent lower at 243,000 tonnes for the first seven months of the 2011/12 marketing season up to the end of April.
 
While overall volumes have fallen, imports of chilled sheepmeat were up 6 per cent to 18,000 tonnes.

Shipments were up from most suppliers with New Zealand accounting for nearly 90 per cent of total supplies. However, this was still almost a third below 2010 levels. Frozen shipments fell by 29 per cent on the year to 24,000 tonnes with shipments from most regions significantly down.
 
Overall import values per tonne were almost 19 per cent higher than 2011 up to the end of March. This was helped by the increased volumes of chilled product while the average price of frozen sheepmeat was almost 16 per cent higher than comparable 2011 levels.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, July 06, 2012

Australian Beef Production Falls in May

AUSTRALIA - Adult cattle slaughter during May declined three per cent year-on-year, to 666,000 head, with total beef production also declining three per cent over the same period, to 190,395 tonnes cwt, reports Meat and Livestock Australia.


Despite the year-on-year decline in both slaughter and production, May is traditionally a large production month, with May’s volume the highest so far in 2012 (Australian Bureau of Statistics).
 
Underpinning the overall decline in adult cattle slaughter was a three per cent year-on-year reduction in Queensland, which reached 329,000 head. Despite falling on last year (highest monthly total in 2011), slaughter in May 2012 increased in comparison to the other months as a result of the higher seasonal turnoff as producers offload stock as winter approaches.
 
Adult cattle slaughter in NSW (124,500 head) fell 18 per cent year-on-year, while Victorian slaughter (124,400 head) surged 12 per cent year-on-year in May, the highest since March 2010. Female slaughter continues to track lower than the same time last year, falling one per cent year-on-year, to 308,700 head.
 
Average national carcase weights in May increased slightly on the corresponding month last year, to 286kg/head. Despite easing one per cent year-on-year in May, Queensland average carcase weights hit 300kg/head, with the biggest improvement in carcase weights attributed to NSW, which gained four per cent or 11kg/head on last year, to average 285kg/head.
 

[Mustang Sally Farm]

CME: Changes to Forecasted Meat, Poultry Output Muted
13 July 2012

 

US - Spreading drought conditions prompted a number of changes to the latest USDA estimates of corn, soybean and wheat production. But even as USDA reduced corn feed use by some 650 million bushels (12 per cent), the changes to forecasted beef, pork and poultry output were more muted, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.

This is in part because the earlier June meat forecasts were not as aggressive as the grain estimates (e.g. 166 bu/acre). USDA made modest adjustments to its forecasts for beef production in 2012 and 2013 and the overall trend continues to be towards steady reductions in both beef output and per capita disappearance. Broiler and pork production is expected to increase, albeit at a slower pace than earlier expected.
 


Below is a recap of the latest USDA projections:

Beef: USDA currently projects total US beef production for 2012 at 25.274 billion pounds, 1.018 billion pounds or 3.9 per cent lower than the previous year. This projection is about 90 million pounds higher than the June number, in part due to more cows now forced to slaughter from deteriorating pasture conditions. The forecast is for 2013 beef production to be 24.656 billion pounds, 618 million pounds or 2.4 per cent lower than in 2012. USDA made only modest changes to US beef trade forecasts. The latest estimate is for beef exports in 2012 to be 2.588 billion pounds, some 200 million pounds or 7.2 per cent lower than a year ago. Beef export data through May showed exports were down 10 per cent from a year ago and USDA does not expect a major recovery in US beef exports in the second half of the year. High prices, a stronger US dollar and slower global economic growth is seen keeping US beef exports in check. Currently USDA is forecasting US beef exports in 2013 to increase by 2.4 per cent but it will largely depend on how the broader global economy progresses, particularly in emerging markets. A stronger US dollar has been an impediment so far this year and it will remain a key driver going forward. Per capita beef disappearance has been on a downtrend for more than a decade and the latest balance table continues to show further erosion in beef supply availability in the domestic market. Per capita consumption in 2012 is forecast at 56.1 lb/person, down 2.1 per cent from the previous year. Per capita beef disappearance is expected to decline another 2.9 per cent from a year ago. Since 2007, just before the bottom fell out of the housing market, US per capita beef disappearance is down 17 per cent. And with ongoing liquidation of the beef cow herd, it will be very difficult to increase beef production any time soon.
 
Pork & Broilers: As corn futures are flirting with $8 per bushel and projections of hog breakevens surge higher, USDA expects US pork supplies to increase both in 2012 and 2013. Total pork production for 2012 is forecast at 23.315 million pounds, some 540 million pounds or 2.4 per cent higher than a year ago. The forecast was slightly lower than the June estimate. USDA now is forecasting pork production for 2013 to be 23.697 billion pounds, 1.6 per cent higher than a year ago. USDA shaved almost half a percentage point from its previous forecast but will likely wait until the feed supply picture becomes clearer before being more aggressive in projecting pork supplies for next year. Pork exports remain the big story as they now account for about 22 per cent of US pork production. The forecast is for pork exports in 2012 to be 5.404 billion pounds, 4.1 per cent higher than a year ago. Exports are expected to be less than 1 per cent higher in 2013. As for broiler production, this remains the biggest wild card given the dramatic increase in both corn and soybean meal prices. USDA did not change its estimate for broiler production in 2012, pegging it at 36.495 billion pounds, 0.8 per cent lower than a year ago. However, USDA reduced expected broiler output for 2013 by almost 400 million pounds, now forecasting just a 0.6 per cent increase from 2012.
 

[Mustang Sally Farm]

USDA Livestock Slaughter

Reports» USDA Livestock Slaughter» USDA Livestock Slaughter - July 2012

20 July 2012
USDA Livestock Slaughter - July 2012
June commercial red meat production is recorded down from last year.


 

Commercial red meat production for the United States totaled 4.02 billion pounds in June, down 5 percent from the 4.22 billion pounds produced in June 2011.
 
Beef production, at 2.25 billion pounds, was 5 percent below the previous year. Cattle slaughter totaled 2.87 million head, down 8 percent from June 2011. The average live weight was up 28 pounds from the previous year, at 1,290 pounds.
 
Veal production totaled 8.9 million pounds, 20 percent below June a year ago. Calf slaughter totaled 56,000 head, down 23 percent from June 2011. The average live weight was up 4 pounds from last year, at 270 pounds.
 
Pork production totaled 1.75 billion pounds, down 4 percent from the previous year. Hog slaughter totaled 8.55 million head, down 4 percent from June 2011. The average live weight was up 1 pound from the previous year, at 274 pounds.
 
Lamb and mutton production, at 12.4 million pounds, was down 1 percent from June 2011. Sheep slaughter totaled 168,900 head, 8 percent below last year. The average live weight was 147 pounds, up 10 pounds from June a year ago.
 
January to June 2012 commercial red meat production was 24.3 billion pounds, up slightly from 2011. Accumulated beef production was down 2 percent from last year, veal was down 9 percent, pork was up 3 percent from last year, and lamb and mutton production was up 2 percent.
 
June 2011 contained 22 weekdays (including 0 holidays) and 4 Saturdays.
 June 2012 contained 21 weekdays (including 0 holidays) and 5 Saturdays.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, August 02, 2012
Canada Gears Up Beef Promotions in Japan

CANADA - Anticipating the possible relaxation of the 20 months age restriction, Canada has launched a series of beef promotions in Japan, reports Meat and Livestock Australia.

The Canada Beef International Institute (CBII) was quoted by the trade news Chikusan Nippo this week that it will focus its marketing activities on barbecues and outdoor settings and re-enforce “clean air, pure water, big nature” images among Japanese consumers.
 
The CBII has already been working with other Canadian food suppliers to collectively promote the country, by conducting barbecue events in western Japan and other areas. Activities with major retailers, independent butchers and camping sites will also be launched during this year.
 
Japanese imports of Canadian beef peaked in 2001 at 22,638 tonnes swt - prior to the BSE discovery in 2003 and subsequent import ban.

Shipments resumed in 2005, with the same restrictions imposed on US beef. Imports for the first six months of 2012 total amounted to 3,395 tonnes, up three per cent from the corresponding period in 2011.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

CME: Pork, Beef Prices Down Despite Drought
10 August 2012

 

US - While there is broad expectation among US market participants that the surge in grain prices will eventually push beef and pork prices higher, for the moment beef and pork prices at the wholesale level are below year ago levels, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.

The reality is that it will take time and plenty of pain along the supply chain to reconcile higher feed costs with what the consumer is willing to pay. On the pork side, it is important to recognize the importance of the export market and the outsize impact it has on the overall pricing structure. The share of US pork going to export markets has been increasing steadily, underpinning US hog prices and helping avoid the kind of structural changes needed to cope with $6, $7 and now $8 dollar corn prices. In 2007, just as corn prices were starting to ratchet higher, pork exports accounted for about 14% of US pork production.
 
By the third quarter of 2011, however, pork exports were 23% of overall US pork output, a dramatic increase that helped put the pork cutout over $105/cwt. (see chart).
 
In the first half of 2012, pork exports continued to be very strong, accounting for almost 25% of all US pork output. That does not necessarily mean stronger demand given that pork prices were soft, rather, that at the lower price levels exports were able to absorb more US product. Going forward, it will be critical for export demand to hold up, otherwise major reductions in hog production capacity will be needed.
 
The US pork cutout on Thursday was quoted at $92.8/cwt, $16.6/cwt or 15% lower than a year ago and also 8% lower than what it was at the end of June. Much of the argument for the lower year over year price decline centers around the softer outlook for US pork exports in the second half of the year and that is likely a driver. However, we would argue that softer domestic demand for pork this summer clearly is a major factor. Two items have been particularly problematic in recent weeks, loins and ribs. This past July was the hottest on record and apparently that negatively impacted the willingness of the US consumer to spend time barbecuing in the backyard. The loin primal cutout is currently running some 24% below year ago levels while the rib primal is down 26% from last year. On the other hand, the belly primal is down just 2% from a year ago while the ham primal is down 13%.

The choice beef cutout on August 9 was quoted at $1.8250/ cwt, $4.5/cwt or 3% higher than a year ago. Strong promotions of choice beef at retail helped the cutout hit annual highs in June but then prices slipped in July as hot weather took its toll. The expectation is for choice beef to track near or above 2011 prices into the fall as cattle and beef supplies continue to decline. There is plenty of talk about cattle herd liquidation but it is important to put that portion of the beef supply in context. Most of the cattle coming to market are feedlot animals. Feedlot cattle slaughter currently is running at a weekly pace of around 500-520k head per week compared to cow/bull slaughter of around 127—133k head per week. So even as cow slaughter is expected to increase to around 140- 150k per week into September and October, limited fed cattle kills will keep overall beef supplies in check, likely down about 5% for Q3 and –3.6% for Q4.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

GLOBAL POULTRY TRENDS - Chicken Output to Exceed 40MT in 2013 in the Americas

If chicken meat production maintains the expected growth this year and next, total output for the region will exceed 40 million tonnes in 2013, according to industry watcher, Terry Evans, in his latest analysis of the global poultry industry.

 



Global chicken meat production growth could well slow to around two per cent a year in the next decade, which contrasts with around four per cent in the 10 years to 2010. Nevertheless, the total is likely to approach 91 million tonnes this year and possibly 93 million tonnes in 2013. This compares with less than 59 million tonnes back in 2000 (Table 1). In broad terms, chicken meat production currently represents almost 88 per cent of poultry meat output compared with less than 86 per cent some 12 years ago.
 
Regarding international chicken meat data, it should be noted that the figures released by the FAO are for all chickens (i.e. table birds and culled layers) while the data published by other authorities such as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) do not include estimates of the meat from culled layers.
 
The five major regions (Table 1) have exhibited differing rates of growth. Based on FAO figures, over the period 2000 to 2010, both Africa and Asia have recorded increases of around 4.5 per cent a year, while growth in the other regions has been below four per cent, averaging 3.9 per cent in Europe, 3.7 per cent in Oceania and 3.5 per cent in the Americas. Since 2010, all the regions have recorded slower growth rates reflecting lower profitability in the face of higher costs (principally feed), while in some countries, disease outbreaks have also played a role in this scenario.



Since 2000, production in the Americas has escalated by a little more than three per cent a year from 27.2 million tonnes to an estimated 39.4 million tonnes this year. This has been slower than the global total of around 3.7 per cent hence this region has seen its share of world output slip three percentage points from 46.3 per cent to 43.3 per cent. For 2013, a 2.0 per cent gain would push total production above 40 million tonnes.
 
The year 2010 is the latest for which figures are available for all countries (Table 2) and these reveal that there were seven countries in the Americas producing at least a million tonnes of chicken meat a year and combined, they accounted for over 35 million tonnes or more than 91 per cent of the total (Tables 2 and 3). However, just two countries – the US and Brazil – were responsible for 27.7 million tonnes or 72 per cent! While production in the USA grew by some three million tonnes or 22 per cent in the decade to 2010, Brazil’s industry expanded by a massive 4.7 million tonnes or 79 per cent.





According to USDA economists (Table 4), broiler production in the top seven producing countries in the region grew at an average 3.7 per cent a year between 2000 and 2012 from 24.5 million tonnes to an estimated 37.8 million tonnes. If the envisaged expansion of two per cent is achieved next year, output from these seven countries will climb to around 38.6 million tonnes. As the data for Peru has been taken from FAO statistics, a small proportion of the annual totals for this country will include culled layers. It looks as though broiler output in the US will approach 17 million tonnes in 2013. In Brazil, the figure should exceed 13.5 million tonnes, while in Mexico, third in the ranking table, output might hit the three million tonnes mark.

 


Figure 1. Leading chicken meat producers in the Americas – 2000 to 2013 (forecast)
 
The US is the world’s largest chicken meat producer, output (i.e. total production less condemnations) having climbed to a record near 16.7 million tonnes in 2011. However, the impact of higher costs on profit margins is expected to produce a near one per cent cut–back this year to 16.6 million tonnes.
 
A more optimistic view is taken of 2013 with production recovering by 1.7 per cent to 16.8 million tonnes. The actual extent of any increase will be influenced primarily by two factors, namely the degree to which processors consider that chicken demand will reflect any recovery in the US economy and also, how integrators feel about changes in the costs of production, especially feed prices. According to US economist Dr Paul Aho, there were a couple of factors that could lead to lower maize prices but recent drought conditions (up to mid–July) make that scenario unlikely. If there were to be a good maize crop this year, the proportion going for ethanol production would drop; the opposite will be true should the harvest be poor.
 
The dramatic rise in maize prices has boosted production worldwide. In 2000/01, maize production outside America was less than 340 million tonnes while the US produced some 250 million tonnes, giving it a 42 per cent market share. This year, production outside the US could reach 600 million tonnes compared with an early estimate of 350 million tonnes within the US, reducing its market share to 37 per cent or less.
 
However, should the recovery in the US economy slow down, the rate of expansion in chicken output could be curtailed somewhat. Tough economic conditions through 2011 resulted in several companies either having to close or be acquired by competitors. Dr Aho considers that as much as 80 per cent of US production could eventually come from just three or four companies. USDA long-term forecasts point to production increasing by only 1.3 per cent a year from now until 2021 when broiler output is expected to reach 19 million tonnes.



While, as for all countries, the estimates of chicken meat production vary somewhat according to source, there can be no doubt that the industry in Brazil has recorded a rapid increase since 2000 with an annual rate of growth in the six– to seven per cent range. Currently, it is considered that the rate of increase has been halved to around three per cent, reflecting uncertainties regarding the likely growth in exports, domestic consumption and higher production costs. Chicken meat output this year is likely to amount to some 13.3 million tonnes. USDA forecasts anticipate a growth of around 2.4 per cent a year which would put the 2020 total at around 16 million tonnes. In contrast, a Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture/Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation study expects a much more optimistic 4.2 per cent a year increase to 2021/22.
 
Late in 2011, the Brazilian anti-trust regulator approved the merger of Sadia and Perdigão to create Brasil Foods SA (BRF), which now supplies 35 per cent of the domestic market and accounts for nearly half of Brazil’s exports. BRF is currently building a processing plant in the United Arab Emirates capable of producing 80,000 tonnes a year of further-processed chicken products.
 
Continued vertical integration in Mexico is helping offset the negative impact of high grain prices, according to a USDA report and as a result, it is anticipated that production this year will show a small gain over 2011 at a shade over 2.9 million tonnes, while three million tonnes could be achieved in 2013. As well as the worst drought for 70 years, the industry is having to contend with high grain prices as well as increased competition for feed from the pork and beef sectors. The country was also been hit by a series of outbreaks of highly-pathogenic avian influenza from the end of June 2012. The initial focus of the outbreaks was in Jalisco, the country’s leading egg-producing state with the resulting cull soon running into the millions. If the infection spreads to other regions, Mexico’s chicken meat industry could suffer production and trade difficulties for some time to come.
 
Although a much smaller industry than in the US or Brazil, chicken production in Argentina more than doubled between 2000 and 2011, reaching close to 1.8 million tonnes with an average growth rate of 6.7 per cent. Continued expansion is anticipated, boosted by increasing consumption allied to an expanding export trade. Consequently, production in 2013 is expected to come close to two million tonnes.
 
Canada operates a supply-management scheme for broiler production via a quota system, the quantities being reappraised on an eight–week cycle. In the decade to 2010, output expanded at 1.6 per cent a year but since then, growth has been limited to only 0.6 per cent and in general, it is considered that future growth will primarily be linked to population increases and to a lesser extent, dietary preferences.
 
The two other countries with annual broiler outputs in excess of a million tonnes, according to the USDA (Table 4) – Peru and Colombia – recorded good annual growth rates of 6.5 per cent and 5.4 per cent, respectively, from 2000 to 2010. If Peru has managed to maintain that momentum, annual output will have exceeded that of Canada. However, in Colombia, production has since slowed to around one per cent per year.
 
August 2012