The Meat Site:

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Monday, January 16, 2012
November US Pork Exports Record-Large
US - US pork exports set another monthly volume record in November, according to statistics released by USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF), which helped offset record-high production and provide a significant boost to pork cutout values.
 

Exports totaled 217,080 metric tons valued at $597.85 million – up 22.5 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, over November 2010. This boosted the January-November volume total to 2.04 million metric tons (up 18 per cent year-over-year) and the value total to $5.526 billion (up 27 per cent). This puts US pork export value, which had never reached $5 billion before this year, on pace to approach the $6 billion mark in 2011.

Per-head pork export value soars to nearly $60 in November
November pork exports equated to nearly 29 per cent of total production (including variety meat). In terms of muscle cuts only, exports still totaled 24 per cent of total production. Export value per head slaughtered set a new monthly record at $59.98, which was $15 higher than a year ago. For January through November, the per centage of total production exported equated to 27 per cent, or 23 per cent when including only muscle cuts. This compares to 23.7 per cent and 19 per cent for the same period in 2010. Export value for the year averaged $55.21 per head, compared to $43.72 per head a year ago.

US pork continues to perform remarkably well in Japan, with November results up 6 per cent in volume and 17 per cent in value over a year ago. For January-November, exports to Japan totaled 451,509 metric tons, nearly matching the 2008 volume record of 451,853 metric tons. Export value reached $1.79 billion, easily setting a new record and setting the stage for a year-end value total that could threaten the $2 billion mark.

"USMEF has continued to market US pork aggressively in Japan, because we know this it is a valuable and fiercely competitive market," said USMEF President and CEO Philip Seng. "When we first broke the $1 billion barrier in 2005, some speculated that this market may have peaked. They said so again in 2008, when exports hit $1.5 billion. To be approaching $2 billion is remarkable, and it shows just how vital Japan is to the bottom line of the US industry."

November exports were also bolstered by strong results in the China/Hong Kong region, which set another monthly record at 66,993 metric tons valued at $140.2 million. For the year, export volume to this region was up 68 per cent to 428,683 metric tons and export value nearly doubled to $794.6 million.

Pork exports to South Korea continued to build on a record year, with November results up 62 per cent in volume to 11,673 metric tons and more than double in value to $35.6 million. For the year, exports to Korea have soared by 126 per cent in volume (172,791 metric tons) and 176 per cent in value ($453.7 million).

Exports volume to Mexico was lower in November at 47,295 metric tons (down 12 per cent) but value remained steady at $94.7 million. Despite volume for the year being down 3 per cent to 477,221 metric tons, Mexico remains the leading volume destination for US pork. Export value for the year ($925.3 million) was up 4 per cent from 2010’s record pace, and by year’s end may break $1 billion for the first time.

November results pushed pork exports to Canada to new record totals in both volume (188,250 metric tons, up 14 per cent) and value ($673.8 million, up 20 per cent). Other markets that have topped their previous records in 2011 include Australia (58,631 metric tons valued at $187.8 million) and Central-South America (66,352 metric tons valued at $171.3 million).

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Australia has Lower Lamb Slaughter in November

AUSTRALIA - Australian lamb slaughter slipped six per cent year-on-year during November, to 1.67 million head, which was matched by a six per cent fall in production, to 35,638 tonnes cwt (Australian Bureau of Statistics), reports Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA).


MLA reports that this follows a similar result in October, with lamb turnoff lower during spring, as producers took advantage of widely available feed across much of the country.

The decline in both slaughter and production was led by three of the four largest lamb producing states. Victorian slaughter dropped 15 per cent, to 682,921 head, SA was seven per cent lower, at 339,521 head, and WA eased three per cent, to 194,180 head.

NSW lamb slaughter bucked the trend, lifting six per cent year-on-year, to 393,039 head, while Tasmania jumped 15 per cent.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Pork Exports Record-Large; Beef Exports Also Strong

US - US pork exports set another monthly volume record in November, according to statistics released by USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF), which helped offset record-high production and provide a significant boost to pork cutout values. November beef exports also performed well, reaching 105,268 metric tons valued at $456.25 million.
 

Exports totaled 217,080 metric tons valued at $597.85 million – up 22.5 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, over November 2010. This boosted the January-November volume total to 2.04 million metric tons (up 18 per cent year-over-year) and the value total to $5.526 billion (up 27 per cent). This puts US pork export value, which had never reached $5 billion before this year, on pace to approach the $6 billion mark in 2011.
 
Beef exports were steady with the October 2011 volume and up slightly in value. On a year-over-year basis, November exports were up 4 per cent in volume and 17 per cent higher in value from the very strong totals recorded in November 2010. This boosted the January-November export total 22 per cent higher in volume than a year ago to 1.179 million metric tons, and up 35 per cent in value to $4.944 billion. When December results become available, beef export value will eclipse the $5 billion mark for the first time ever.
 
Per-head pork export value soars to nearly $60 in November
 
November pork exports equated to nearly 29 per cent of total production (including variety meat). In terms of muscle cuts only, exports still totaled 24 per cent of total production. Export value per head slaughtered set a new monthly record at $59.98, which was $15 higher than a year ago. For January through November, the per centage of total production exported equated to 27 per cent, or 23 per cent when including only muscle cuts. This compares to 23.7 per cent and 19 per cent for the same period in 2010. Export value for the year averaged $55.21 per head, compared to $43.72 per head a year ago.
 
US pork continues to perform remarkably well in Japan, with November results up 6 per cent in volume and 17 per cent in value over a year ago. For January-November, exports to Japan totaled 451,509 metric tons, nearly matching the 2008 volume record of 451,853 metric tons. Export value reached $1.79 billion, easily setting a new record and setting the stage for a year-end value total that could threaten the $2 billion mark.
 
"USMEF has continued to market US pork aggressively in Japan, because we know this it is a valuable and fiercely competitive market," said USMEF President and CEO Philip Seng. "When we first broke the $1 billion barrier in 2005, some speculated that this market may have peaked. They said so again in 2008, when exports hit $1.5 billion. To be approaching $2 billion is remarkable, and it shows just how vital Japan is to the bottom line of the US industry."
 
November exports were also bolstered by strong results in the China/Hong Kong region, which set another monthly record at 66,993 metric tons valued at $140.2 million. For the year, export volume to this region was up 68 per cent to 428,683 metric tons and export value nearly doubled to $794.6 million.
 
Pork exports to South Korea continued to build on a record year, with November results up 62 per cent in volume to 11,673 metric tons and more than double in value to $35.6 million. For the year, exports to Korea have soared by 126 per cent in volume (172,791 metric tons) and 176 per cent in value ($453.7 million).
 
Exports volume to Mexico was lower in November at 47,295 metric tons (down 12 per cent) but value remained steady at $94.7 million. Despite volume for the year being down 3 per cent to 477,221 metric tons, Mexico remains the leading volume destination for US pork. Export value for the year ($925.3 million) was up 4 per cent from 2010’s record pace, and by year’s end may break $1 billion for the first time.
 
November results pushed pork exports to Canada to new record totals in both volume (188,250 metric tons, up 14 per cent) and value ($673.8 million, up 20 per cent). Other markets that have topped their previous records in 2011 include Australia (58,631 metric tons valued at $187.8 million) and Central-South America (66,352 metric tons valued at $171.3 million).
 
Beef export value nearly $220 per head in November, more than $200 for 2011

November beef exports equated to 14 per cent of total production when including variety meat, or 11 per cent for muscle cuts only. This was consistent with the 2011 average but up significantly from the 2010 ratios of 11.7 per cent for total production and 9 per cent for muscle cuts. November exports equated to $219.73 per head of fed slaughter, up $41.50 from a year ago. For January-November, export value averaged $204.27 per head – more than $50 higher than the previous year’s average.
 
Beef exports to Canada posted another strong month, solidifying it as the leading value destination for 2011 and ensuring a $1 billion performance by year’s end. For January through November, exports to Canada totaled 174,122 metric tons (up 27 per cent) valued at $940.5 million (up 43 per cent).
 
Mexico is still the volume leader for US beef exports, despite a slight slowdown in volume in November. Export volume in November was down 4 per cent to 21,884 metric tons, but value still climbed 6 per cent to $84.6 million (trailing only Japan). For the year, exports to Mexico were up 5 per cent in volume to 234,888 metric tons and were 23 per cent higher in value to $902.8 million.
 
Japan was the leading value destination for US beef in November at $85.3 million, up nearly 40 per cent from a year ago. Export volume was 18 per cent higher at 14,312 metric tons. For the year, exports to Japan were up 29 per cent in volume to 148,182 metric tons and 38 per cent in value to $812.1 million.
 
November exports to South Korea, Hong Kong and the Middle East were all lower than a year ago, but all of these markets were still up solidly for the year. In fact, Hong Kong and the Middle East had already set new annual volume and value records in October.
 
Exports to Russia were also slightly lower in volume in November but more than 60 per cent higher in value. Russia had already set a new annual value record in October which has now reached $243.6 million. Led by surging exports to Chile, the Central-South America region has also set new records this year for both volume (23,340 metric tons, up 50 per cent) and value ($75 million, up 76 per cent).
 
"There is much to be excited about this year with regard to US beef exports," Mr Seng said. "Not only are we going to break $5 billion for the first time ever, we are gaining back valuable market share in Asia and taking exports to new heights in other regions across the globe. Demand for US beef has never been greater, and this is generating a lot of momentum for 2012."
 
Lamb exports set new value record
 
US lamb export value reached $27.76 million through November, up 49 per cent from a year ago and just edging the previous annual record of $27.75 million (set in 2006) with a month remaining in the year. Lamb exports had already topped their previous high in volume, but strong November results pushed export volume for the year to 16,958 metric tons (up 79 per cent from a year ago). Strong performance in Mexico and Canada accounted for much of this growth, but results have also been solid in Central America, the Middle East and the southeastern Caribbean islands.
 

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Tuesday, January 17, 2012
How Strong are Links between Meat and Cancer?
ANALYSIS - A new study published in the British Journal of Cancer and produced by researchers at the Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm in Sweden has concluded that eating processed meats increases the risk of pancreatic cancer.

The study is the latest is a series of research reports that has links the consumption of processed meats and red meat with various cancers.

In November last year a research team, led by John Witte of University of California, San Francisco linked increase consumption of ground red meat and processed meats to prostate cancer.

The researchers also said they found that the correlation was primarily driven by red meat that was grilled or barbecued, especially when well done.

And in the UK last year, a report from the Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN), which reviewed evidence on the links between red and processed meat and bowel cancer, concluded that red and processed meat probably increases the risk of bowel cancer and people who eat around 90g or more should consider cutting down to reduce their risk.

With a succession of such reports being published, it is a wonder that red meat and processed meat products are not sold with a health warning as seen on the side of cigarette packets.

Against the battery of reports that have been appearing, the red meat industry has not been the speediest to put up its counter claims.

However, the American Meat Institute has poured cold water on the claims from the World Cancer Research Fund over the connections between red and processed meats and cancer.

The AMI said earlier this year that the renewed claims should be met with scepticism as they are not supported by the full evidence and they conflict with the US Dietary Guidelines, which say that red and processed meat can be a healthy part of balanced diet.

The AMI also said that the WCRF's original 2007 report was based upon very weak findings and many contradictions, and was questioned by many groups, including the International Agency for Research on Cancer.

Other studies have also found holes in the WCRF's report.

An editorial in the Annals of Oncology said: "The substantial review of evidence in the WCRF report demonstrates that there is no discernible association between many forms of cancer and specific dietary practices."

Another study by Dr Stewart Truswell, of the University of Sydney, and Dr Dominik Alexander, of Exponent, whose review was published in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, highlighted a number of errors and omissions in the WCRF review of red and processed meat and colorectal cancer. These included analytical inconsistencies and data extraction errors in the evidence presented which could have contributed to an overestimate of the association between eating red meat and the risk of CRC.

The conclusion of Dr Alexander's review was that "there is no conclusive evidence of causal relationship" between eating meat and colorectal cancer.

Even the latest report from the Karolinska Institutet has clauses within it that also cast doubt on its own conclusions.

The report says: "Our study has some limitations. First, as a meta-analysis of observational studies, we cannot rule out that individual studies may have failed to control for potential confounders, which may introduce bias in an unpredictable direction. All studies controlled for age and smoking, but only a few studies adjusted for other potential confounders such as body mass index and history of diabetes.

"Another limitation is that our findings were likely to be affected by imprecise measurement of red and processed meat consumption and potential confounders."

The research looked at 13 studies into red and processed meat consumption and cancer. Having discarded two of the studies conducted a meta-analysis of the remaining 11 studies, of which seven provided data for the consumption of processed meats.

"When results from all studies were combined, an increase of 50 g per day of processed meat consumption was associated with a statistically significant 19 per cent increased risk of pancreatic cancer," the study said.

It added: "The positive association between processed meat consumption and pancreatic cancer risk was attenuated and not statistically significant in a sensitivity analysis excluding one of the studies (No¨thlings et al, 2005).

"There was no overall association between red meat consumption and risk of pancreatic cancer. However, red meat consumption was statistically significantly positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk in men. Red meat consumption was on average higher in men than in women.

"If there is a threshold effect with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer only at very high levels of red meat consumption, a positive association may be more likely to be detected in men. The observed positive association in men may also be a chance finding."

Despite the potential limitations in findings, the Swedish study concludes that there is a "statistically significant positive association between processed meat consumption and risk of pancreatic cancer. Red meat consumption was not associated with risk of pancreatic cancer overall, but was positively associated with risk in men".

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Wednesday, January 18, 2012
CME: Pork & Beef Value in November Hit Records
US - The excellent year for US pork and beef exports continued in November with pork tonnage and value setting new records and beef tonnage and value hitting their highest level for November on record, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.


Some highlights of Friday’s release of product weight data by the Department of Commerce and Foreign Ag Service:

Pork muscle meat exports were record-high at 169,460 metric tons (373.5 million pounds). That figure is 23.2 per cent larger than one year ago and brings YTD exports through November to 1.588 million metric tons or 3.5 billion pounds, 22 per cent larger than during January-November 2010.

The value of pork exports also set a new record at $515.8 million in November. That figure is 33.7 per cent larger than last year and brings YTD export values for muscle cuts to 4.822 billion, 30.1 per cent higher than in 2011. All but one month in 2011 (thru November) saw pork muscle meat export values that were higher than the previous monthly record set in 2008. So, not only has tonnage been higher but the value of those shipments has grown by an even higher percentage meaning per-unit values have grown, too. Higher quantity and higher price means strong demand!

The three largest months on record for pork exports occurred in 2011 with January, October and November all exceeding the prior record level set in March 2008.

Pork variety meat exports were 25 per cent larger in November versus one year ago and the value of those shipments was up 71 per cent from last year. Year-to-date through November, variety meat exports were six per cent larger than last year and were sold for nearly 19 per cent more in total value.

Japan returned to its usual place atop the rankings of US pork export destinations in November. Total pork and pork variety meat exports to Japan were up six per cent in November versus one year earlier and were up 17 per cent through November for the year. YTD total export value to Japan reached $1.79 billion. That, according to the United State Meat Export Federation “ . . easily set a new record and set the stage for a year-en value that could threaten the $2 billion mark.” US ANNUAL pork exports to ALL DESTINATIONS did not add up to $2 billion as recently as 2003.

Pork and pork variety meat shipments to China/Hong Kong set another monthly record at 66,993 metric tons. That figure was valued at $140.2 million and pushed YTD export values to China/ Hong Kong to $794.6 million, nearly double the level of 2010. Shipments to this important if sometime fickle market were up 68 per cent for the year through November.

November beef exports did not challenge the record level of 90,282 metric tons set in July but were very strong none the less, breaking last year’s November high of 71,582 metric tons. The 3.4 per cent year-on-year increase in muscle meat tonnage, though, drove a 17.6 per cent increase in muscle meat value in November as unit prices increased sharply. YTD muscle meat tonnage now stands at 846,343 metric tons, well above the previous YTD record pace of 801,781 metric tons reached in November of 2003. That year still marks the high for beef cut exports at 858,185 metric tons — a record that will almost certainly fall when December data is released in February.

As was the case for volume, export values were record high for November but were lower than the all-time record of last July. November value of $395.8 million was 17.6 per cent higher than last year and pushed YTD cut values to $4.325 billion, 35.8 per cent higher than one year ago.

Beef variety meat shipments were up 4.6 per cent in volume and 19.2 per cent in value, year-on-year for November. YTD volume and value totals for variety meats were +13.7 per cent and +27.4 per cent, respectively.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, January 19, 2012
CME: Pork Production Forecast Higher in 2012
US - The latest WASDE forecasts for US beef, pork and poultry supplies in 2012 were little changed from December. There continues to be broad expectation that US meat protein supplies will be tighter in 2012, underpinning firm protein prices, particularly given forecasts of strong exports for all three main species, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.


The decline in meat protein supplies (see chart) is due to smaller beef and broiler production. Pork production is expected to increase for the second consecutive year but the pace of the increase has so far been relatively modest.

Total beef production for 2012 is now forecast at 25.075 billion pounds, slightly higher than the forecast put forward in December but still some 1.22 billion pounds or 4.6 per cent lower than in 2011. If this forecast for beef production materializes, it would represent the smaller output number since 2005.

Grain prices have pulled back recently but this will do little to increase beef production this year. Indeed, it may have the effect of shortening supplies even more as lower grain prices make it more profitable to hold back heifers and expand. As producers bring fewer heifers to market, the supply of feeder cattle available to feedlots will decline, reducing total beef production. USDA will publish its results of the January cattle inventory survey on 27 January and our expectation is that beef cows held back for replacement will still be lower than in 2011 as producers in key areas struggled with drought conditions. An improvement in weather conditions (still a big question mark), lower grain prices and record out front cattle futures should encourage beef cow retention in 2012.

Pork supplies are expected to advance higher in 2012 but despite record high prices last summer, producers remain cautious. Total pork production for 2012 is now forecast at 23.209 billion pounds, 431 million pounds or 1.9 per cent higher than a year ago. This forecast is modestly higher than what was presented in December but, in our view, the key for the pork market in 2012 remain exports. Of the +23 billion pounds that are expected to come to market in 2012, about 5.1 billion pounds or 22 per cent are expected to go to exports. Only 5 years ago, pork exports accounted for 14 per cent of total production.

In 2011, pork exports were largely driven by strong demand in Asian markets. In some cases (S. Korea), the pickup in demand was accelerated by short term factors, such as the outbreak of FMD. Tight supplies and higher pork prices in China caused that market to catapult to second place, after Japan, in the second half of the year. Will China remain in this second place spot for 2012? It is hard to say. China has the largest sow herd in the world and a large share of production comes from backyard operations. Should feed prices pull back, Chinese producers have shown they can quickly ramp up production. On the other hand, rapid modernization and the resulting growth in demand coupled with population shifts to urban areas could sustain future growth. Needless to say, this is the big wild card for US pork supplies and prices in 2012.

Broiler supplies for 2012 (ready-to-cook production) are forecast at 36.109 billion pounds, 735 million pounds or 2 per cent lower than a year ago. Corn prices may have pulled back from the record levels last summer but they remain in the $5.5 - $6.0 range, well above historical levels. At this point the expectation is for lower production in Q1 and Q2 and then flat to slightly higher production in Q4. Broiler exports are forecast to rise by less than 1 per cent but still remain at all time record highs

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, January 19, 2012
Beef and Veal Production Surges in November

AUSTRALIA - Australian beef and veal production approached record volumes during November, rising four per cent year-on-year and six per cent on the five year average, to 203,120 tonnes cwt (Australian Bureau of Statistics), reports Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA).

MLA states that this was the highest monthly beef and veal production since October 2008 and was largely due to a four per cent rise in adult slaughter, which finished November at 689,263 head.

Beef production in Queensland (99,073 tonnes cwt), NSW (42,867 tonnes cwt), SA (11,097 tonnes cwt) and Tasmania (4,520 tonnes cwt) rose four per cent, 11 per cent, 22 per cent and two per cent year-on-year, respectively, in line with slaughter levels. However, production in Victoria (32,348 tonnes cwt) and WA (10,010 tonnes cwt) fell three per cent and eight per cent year-on-year respectively, as a result of lower kills.

Average adult carcase weights in November improved slightly on last year, rising one per cent year-on-year, to 290kg/head cwt.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, January 19, 2012
Fonterra Exports Break Records

NEW ZEALAND - Fonterra has broken its record for the highest export month with 246,000 tonnes of dairy products loaded on ships during December boosting New Zealand’s economy by NZ$1.3 billion for the month.


In March 2011 Fonterra shipped 229,000 tonnes of product, but continued growth in global demand for dairy products combined with record milk production early on in the current dairy season has led to another spike.
 
In December, Fonterra closed the door on an export container every 2.7 minutes -- 546 containers a day. Fonterra's exports account for more than a quarter of all NZ exports.
 
Fonterra Trade & Operations Managing Director Gary Romano said a good autumn and a mild winter created optimal grass growing conditions ahead of the 2011/12 dairy season.
 
"This helped create a wave of milk up about 10 per cent on a daily basis during the peak flow in late September through to November.
 
"While conditions were good overall, farmers did face extreme challenges including a near nationwide dumping of spring snow and flooding in some regions.
 
"Our farmers have coped tremendously, not just with bad weather but also the record milk flow which peaked at more than 80 million litres a day," he said.
 
"Our teams have gone the extra mile to manage the huge amount of milk this season and get value out of every drop of milk. From the moment we collect the milk, process it, pack it, store it, ship it -- our people have put in a huge effort, they haven't stopped."
 
Demand for high quality dairy products is still looking strong with South East Asia, China, the Middle East and North Africa driving the growth in exports.
 
"Dairy is becoming increasingly important in these markets as people grow wealthier and want access to more nutritious foods," Mr Romano said.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Thursday, January 19, 2012
Retailers Make Huge Profits From Beef Sales

SOUTH KOREA - Excessive profits by department stores and supermarket chains have been cited as the main reason why hanwoo meat (beef) remains expensive despite a plunge in homebred cattle prices.


A report by the Consumers Union of Korea showed that department stores and large discount chains increased the prices of the top grade 1++ hanwoo by up to 12 per cent last year, while the wholesale price dropped 23 per cent during the same period.

The Korea Herald reports that beef prices at major retailers almost doubled the prices of smaller vendors, said the consumer advocacy group that surveyed hanwoo prices at 511 distributors and 130 restaurants in 11 cities in recent weeks.
 
Some retailers and restaurants are arguing that the quality and nutrition of beef could be different even among the same grade hanwoo.
 
The consumer group, however, made it clear that there should be no quality difference in the same grade hanwoo as all the hanwoo traded is graded at the abattoir.
 
“Even when taking into account additional charges, we cannot understand how beef prices at major retailers can be more than double those of other vendors,” Kang Jung-wha, the head of the consumer union told the Herald.
 
“If the grade is same, there is no quality difference regardless where they are sold,” she said.
 
Beef cattle prices have fallen sharply as a result of an oversupply of cows raised here over the past two years, weighing heavily on cattle breeders.
 
The Ministries of Agriculture, Home Affairs and the nation’s antitrust watchdog are reviewing ways to simplify the five-stage distribution system to three stages to benefits both cattle breeders and consumers.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, January 20, 2012
CME: Lower Meat Supplies - Uncertain Exports

US - Recent editions of this report have focused on two themes: lower meat protein supplies, largely due to smaller beef and broiler output; and uncertain export demand, particularly for pork, writes Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.
 

On both fronts a consensus appears to be forming. It appears market participants generally accept that beef supplies will decline in 2012, pork will rise modestly and chicken output will stay down at least through spring.

On the export front, the expectation is for relatively flat growth, with only modest gains in some cases over the record levels established in 2012. Where there appears to be real disagreement, in our view, is with regard to domestic demand. Those that hold a more bullish view of the market argue that steady improvement in the broader economy will sustain higher meat protein prices in 2012.

Consensus GDP growth forecasts for 2012 are at 2.4 per cent compared to 1.8 per cent growth in 2011. Improvements in employment numbers, housing metrics, equity valuations and generally higher economic activity imply better demand at both retail and foodservice. The charts below illustrate both the weakness that developed in the second half of 2011 and more recent data points showing signs of improvement.

The restaurant performance index, published at the end of December but covering the previous month, showed that both the current situation and expectations components of the index are now above contraction thresholds.

Restaurant operators noted improvements in both same store sales and foot traffic. For the next three weeks restaurant companies will report their quarterly results and the expectation is for better results than in the previous quarter. Another positive indicator is the recovery in consumer sentiment, which has made a U-turn and will likely test post-recession highs in January.

Those that hold a more bearish view of the market focus on lingering negatives from the recession, particularly on the employment front and consumer finances. According to the University of Missouri economics, pork retail demand was down 4.8 per cent, chicken was down eight per cent and only beef managed to eek out a 1.2 per cent growth.

While unemployment has pulled back, much of the decline has been due to people abandoning the workforce rather than finding jobs.

A substantial number of people now depend on unemployment benefits and, as those benefits run out, consumer finances will struggle. Housing markets also remain a concern, impeding consumer mobility. Another looming threat is the ongoing uncertainty in Europe and the possibility of a slowdown in emerging markets. The Euro situation may have disappeared from the headlines but it will remain a threat until a credible solution is found. Love them or hate them, financial markets are the glue that keeps capitalism together. The unraveling of the Euro in 2012 could certainly lead to a global recession and negatively impact consumer protein demand.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, January 20, 2012

Meat Consumption Habits are Changing

ANALYSIS - The current economic crisis and new eating habits are reducing consumption of meat in the developed world, writes Editor in Chief Chris Harris.
 
The consumption of meat in the United States is expected to be 12.2 per cent lower this year than in 2007, according to a report from Danish Crown and Food and Culture.
 
On average each American is forecast to eat approximately 75kg meat in 2012 and while this may appear to be a large amount, it is actually 12.2 per cent less than in 2007. In 1999 the average US consumption of meat was 86kg.
 
However, while consumption has dropped in the US, it still has a high per capita consumption compared with many other countries around the world, although the trend for reduced meat consumption is being reflected in many of the developed nations.
 
A report from Minna Kanerva from the University of Bremen said that in Europe, the UK is the country with most stable consumption, while Spain has seen the fastest increase, rising from lowest to highest position, although in recent times consumption has levelled off.
 
France has been recording a drop in consumption over the last decade and while Germany had seen a drop in consumption in the 1990's this has now levelled off.
 
The Netherlands has seen the steepest fall in meat consumption together with Hungary.
 
Finland and the Netherlands have the lowest meat consumption in Europe and the greatest fall across Europe has been in the consumption of beef, according to Minna Kanerva.
 
A report from Euromonitor also shows that sales of meat in the developed nations have slowed as the growing trend meat-free or meat-reduced diets has its impact on consumer markets.
 
The Euromonitor report shows that meat has been one of the worst performers between 2005 and 2010 with sales growing less than 14 per cent ahead only of vegetables at just under 11 per cent.
 
Euromonitor says that part of the issue is that there has been a growing trend for low-meat diets in Europe and North America - often backed by celebrity led campaigns such as Meatless Thursday and Meat-free Monday.
 
The Euromonitor report shows that the modern consumer as a more complex character with various religious, market and fashion trends starting to dictate the way they spend their money and on what, as well as other concerns over expense and cash flow.
 
It reports a new kind of consumer emerging - a "flexitarian" - who is reducing meat consumption because of health and environmental concerns.
 
Euromonitor said it predicts that a gradually growing population of vegetarians, semi-vegetarians, meat-reducers and "vegivores" are set to consume more meat free foods and the global value of meat alternatives is set to increase by 15 per cent between 2010 and 2015.
 
With countries in the developed nations such as the US eating less meat, it means that there is more domestic product on the market, increasing competition for those meat exporting countries.
 
However, with growing wealth, populations and urbanisation in developing countries, there is an opportunity for the global meat trade to find new markets and compensate for the drops in consumption in the developed nations.
 
Karl Christian Møller, Chief Analyst of Danish Crown said: "We see a tendency for consumption worldwide will be more evenly distributed. While the Americans cutting back on consumption of meat, consumers in countries such as China and other middle income countries put their consumption up and are buying more meat."
 
Because of the growth in regions such as China, SE Asia, Russia, South America and India, meat consumption globally is increasing almost at a rate where production and trade cannot keep up with demand.
 
While the industry is might be struggling to meet this growing demand outside the developed world, it can alleviate the problem by cutting waste.
 
FAO figures show that about a third of all food produced globally in the industrialised world is wasted and more than a fifth of meat.

In Europe alone 3.1 per cent of meat is lost in production, 0.7 per cent in handling and storage and five per cent in processing and packaging. Another four per cent is lost during distribution and another 11 per cent at the consumption stage.

 Chris Harris, Editor-in-Chief

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Friday, January 20, 2012

Egyptians Visit Brazilian Poultry Companies

BRAZIL - Brazilian companies that export chicken are going to receive a delegation from Egypt over the weekend.


According to the executive president at the Brazilian Poultry Union (Ubabef), Francisco Turra, the group should visit slaughterhouses and verify whether halal slaughter is strictly followed.
 
"As they consume halal products, they are coming here to check whether the practice is executed according to the books, and to visit the plants," said Mr Turra.

The executive added that visits by importers are routine and do not mean concern with the quality of the product. In the case of Egypt, as there was a change in political regime, with the fall of dictator Hosni Mubarak, "It is now necessary to re-evaluate everything," he pointed out.

Mr Turra added that Brazil "is a model" in halal slaughter and that representatives in the sector are usually called to speak in international events about how the Country adopted and developed the practice. Halal, which means "permissible" in Arabic, is preparation of foods and other products according to Islamic tradition.

To the executive, Egypt is a "great market" that bought "an incredible volume" of 124,400 tonnes from Brazil in 2010, equivalent to US$197 million. With the political crisis, exports dropped 42.1 per cent, to 72,000 tonnes, or US$ 121.8 million in 2011.

"There is space for recovery of what was lost last year," said Mr Turra. To him, Egypt is "focused on Brazil". "They like our product and also like doing business with Brazilians," he pointed out.

Chicken exports to Egypt gained strength late last decade, when the country had cases of avian flu and local production was practically extinguished. Prior to that, the market was protectionist and there were barriers for imports of the product from Brazil.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Tuesday, January 24, 2012
CME: Price-Quantity Relationship shows Export Impact
US - The impact of output reductions and higher exports for US beef and pork can be clearly seen when one considers the price-quantity relationships for 2011, writes Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.


Moreover, the situation for the poultry sectors can be seen in stark contrast to those of the “red” meats by considering the same graphics.

The scatter diagrams below show annual per capita consumption in retail weight on the X axes and deflated retail price on the Y axes. The consumption data come from the Livestock Marketing Information Center while the retail price data are the standard USDA weighted averages that are based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

The CPI for all goods is used to deflate the prices to 2005 dollars. As you can see, US domestic per cap consumption of beef and pork — which readers of DLR know is actually “disappearance” which, in turn, is actually “availability” — has fallen sharply in recent years.

Pork per cap consumption most recently peaked at 50.8 pounds in 2007. It is now estimated to be only 45.9 pounds for 2011, a decline of almost 10% with roughly a third of that decline occurring last year. Beef consumption was roughly 65 pounds per person for each year from 2003 through 2007 before it, too, fell steadily to last year’s 57.4 pounds, a decline of about 12%.

The prices of both “red” meats increased as domestic product offerings fell, suggesting that demand (which reflects consumer preferences through the price they are willing to pay for the quantity offered) has fared better than has consumption.

The scatter diagrams for chicken and turkey look much different, though. First, per cap consumption for both species is still nearer the high end of the historic range than at the low end. Second, 2011 did not see dramatic changes for domestic product offerings.

Chicken producers, of course, accomplished that stability by accepting prices that fell far short of costs for most of the year — a course of action that cannot continue. It is almost certain that the 2012 observation will involve a lower quantity but the question is whether we will finally see a higher chicken price to go with it.

The ‘11 P-Q observation for turkey suggests higher demand relative to recent years as deflated prices rose on hardly any decline in product offerings. Since 2005, chicken demand has fallen while turkey demand has grown.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Meat and Poultry Demand Struggles Continue
US - In this week's "Market Preview" featured in National Hog Farmer magazine, Steve Meyer discusses the meat and poultry demand situation in the US.


Meat and poultry demand continued to struggle in the second half of 2011, but still stands a chance of being higher for the year. Figure 1 shows annual demand indexes for pork, beef and chicken from 1970 through 2011. The data through 2010 are for calendar years, while the 2011 observation covers December 2010 through November 2011, the last month for which complete data are available. I use the 12-month period to capture the full gamut of seasonal variation in that last observation. Using a year-to-date figure would omit part of that variation which, in most instances, is quite important.


Through November, pork demand had fared better than either of its major competitors, gaining 1.2% from the same period 12 months before. The pork index of 92 says that pork demand is 8% lower than it was in the index’s base period of 1985. Note that all three indexes equal 100 in that year.

Both beef and chicken demand remain on the positive side of the ledger, but just barely so. That is especially true of chicken, which was only 0.3% higher for the December-November period. These struggles continue the pattern of recent years after the demand index for chicken grew from 94.9 in 1982 to 146.2 in 2005. That 23-year period saw 18 positive years vs. only five negative years.

The chicken demand index then fell four straight years before growing marginally in 2010. It is very likely that 2011 will again see a decline in chicken demand when December data is available.

The bad news is that these "annual" numbers for 2011 have been getting worse and worse as the year has progressed. Figures 2 through 4 show year-on-year comparisons of monthly indexes. That is, the last observation in each chart shows the demand index for that species in November 2011 vs. November 2010.

 

 


As you can see, these monthly indexes indicate that the demands for all three species were very strong from mid-2010 through the mid-2011. Chicken demand began to falter in May, plunged in September and saw one of its largest year-on-year declines ever in November. Pork demand maintained its growth through June, but has been 4-5% lower than last year since July. Beef demand has been up and down since mid-2010, but remained on the growth side for most months through November.

What will be the key factors for domestic demand this year?

First and foremost will be the performance of the economy in general and its impact on consumer spending. Per capita disposable income growth fell from 2.7% (year-over-year) in the fourth quarter of 2010 to -0.7% in the third quarter of 2011. There are some signs that the trend may be changing but this important measure of consumer well-being (and purchasing capacity) is 4% below its pre-recession peak in mid-2008 and is only 1.8% higher than the low it reached in the fourth quarter of 2009. If consumers are going to spend more money on meat and poultry, they need more income.

And they likely will spend more for meat and poultry in 2012 simply because beef and chicken prices are likely to rise significantly. Beef production will fall sharply in the last half of the year, pushing already-record wholesale and retail prices even higher. The chicken output reductions that began last fall will continue and probably get larger, finally pushing chicken prices higher as well.

Pork prices are still near the record levels set in September and will remain high. But retail pork prices will almost certainly decline this year relative to the prices of both beef and chicken. This price effect will strengthen pork demand, but the question is whether it will be enough to offset the negative impact of the income effect described above. The answer remains to be seen, but I think it is likely, especially if the economy returns to a recovery mode and incomes rise a bit.

Is soft pork demand an indictment of any one demand factor, such as Pork Checkoff promotions and advertising? Absolutely not. The indexes only describe how demand is changing. They say nothing in and of themselves about why it is changing. I am confident that consumer incomes and consumer spending was the major negative force in the domestic market in 2011. I don’t know how effective your Checkoff promotions were, but I will say that the indexes may well have been even worse had those promotions not been in place. The impacts of these separate factors can be derived, but it requires some complex modeling.

 



As published in National Hog Farmer's Weekly Preview.

[Mustang Sally Farm]

EU Expected to Lift Ban on Thai Fresh Chicken

THAILAND - Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Kittirat Na-Ranong says that the European Union (EU) is expected to lift its ban on Thai fresh chicken exports to the 27-member trading bloc later this year.


According to Bernama.com, Kittirat told reporters that the Thai ambassador to Brussels, as well as Thai agriculture and commerce authorities recently met John Dalli, European Commissioner for Health and Consumer Policy, to discuss the EU's import ban on Thai fresh chicken and some other Thai food products.

Kittirat quoted the European Commissioner as saying that the EU was satisfied with conditions of Thailand's poultry facilities and food safety measures and is unlikely to renew its ban on Thai fresh chicken exports in mid 2012, noting, however, that all EU member states have yet to approve the stance and, in the meantime, the European commissioner urged Thailand to treat EU products exported to Thailand accordingly, including beef and some fruits.

According to the Thai deputy premier, he had discussed the EU fresh chicken ban at many forums and also met European Commissioner for Trade Karel De Gucht during the Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva last December, and wrote to three European commissioners tasked with health, consumer protection, trade and agriculture, asking them to lift the ban against the Thai food products right away.

The deputy premier said he was glad with the latest development and believed that the cancellation of the ban would allow Thailand to restore market shares in the major EU market and would also raise demand for Thai farm produce and earnings for Thai farmers.