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Author Topic: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities  (Read 21835 times)
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mikey
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« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2009, 09:50:27 AM »

China stocks up its grain reserves 02 Feb 2009
To prevent price falls in the abrupt econmico slowdown of the country, China will keep stocking grain for its state reserves and encourage companies to build up commercial storage.
The government would also increase the price floor for government grain purchases, according to Chen Xiwen, Director of the Office of the Central Rural Work Leading Group. "Agricultural product prices are decided by market supply and demand rather than the government. What the government could do is to set a minimum purchase price to prevent prices from falling excessively," he added.

Chen also said Beijing would consider increasing grain exports to better balance domestic and global demand and supply. "If there are demands in the international market, China will increase some grain exports at reasonable prices so as to ensure global grain security as well as promote a balance in domestic grain demand and supply," Chen said.

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« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2009, 04:11:36 AM »

China stocks up grain reserves
[6 February 2009] China will boost its grain stocks for its state reserves and is encouraging companies to build up commercial storage to prevent drastic price fluctuations due to the economic slowdown.  According to Chen Xiwen, Director of the Office of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, China will increase grain exports if there is a demand to ensure global grain security as well as promote a balance in domestic grain demand and supply.
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« Reply #17 on: February 09, 2009, 11:38:29 AM »

[9 February 2009] India corn futures was expected to trade higher at the end of last week on renewed demand from local poultry feed makers. Demand from this section of the market started to pick up recently, after a downturn due to the bird flu outbreaks. Meanwhile the global economic slowdown and higher Indian prices was pinching exports. India shipped about 3 million tonnes of the commodity in the 2007/08 marketing year (October to September) mainly to Southeast Asian countries.
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China’s drought triggers alert
[9 February 2009] The Chinese Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters launched an orange alert last week, urging local authorities to be aware of the severe drought and offer relief. The drought that's been on since last November has affected 9.73 million hectares of crops nationwide, of which 9.26 million hectares cover wheat, or 46% of the country’s total wheat acreage. However, an industry analyst expects wheat production this year to decline by only 3-5% thanks to a bumper harvest last year. 
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« Reply #18 on: February 10, 2009, 07:49:43 AM »

Monday, February 09, 2009Print This Page
Grain Prices to Rise as Production Falls
GERMANY - Experts at the DLG Winter Seminar said they expect price increases in second half of 2009 with wheat in the Paris exchange rising to €200 per tonne. Recommendations include forward selling when prices high.



The worldwide economic crisis could reduce production of grain and oilseeds and see prices pushed upwards by autumn of this year according to financial analyst, Jochen Hitzfeld from UniCredit, Munich. He was speaking at the DLG's Wintertagung conference in Berlin in January. And his predictions were good news for the investment climate at the world's largest farm equipment exhibition, Agritechnica, to be held in Hanover, on 10 to 14 November (with preview days on 8 and 9 November) where specialists from all over the world gather to learn about, and invest in, the latest technology solutions for efficient agriculture.

Behind the expected price boom is the difficulty, especially in emergent countries, of getting credit – a situation already stopping expansion of agricultural production in Russia and the Ukraine, at least for the moment, according to Mr Hitzfeld. On top of this, global reduction in demand for fertiliser and plant protection sprays could have a negative effect on yields this harvest. Following farm product price reductions in the last months, cropping on 30 per cent of the most expensive production areas was no longer profitable, leading to an over 10 per cent reduction in northern hemisphere growing area.

But another expert at the DLG Wintertagung, Frank Gagel of traders Schouten Ceralco in the Netherlands, warned of continued fluctuations in wheat price. Bread wheat at the Paris Exchange (MATIF) would not go lower than €130 per tonne, he felt. Mills and feed plants still needed substantial supplies for production up to the new harvest. So there was plenty of room for price rises up to €200 per tonne.

Dr Rüdiger Fuhrmann from the Norddeutschen Landesbank (NordLB) did not expect farmers to have difficulties in getting credit because of the current economic downturn. Agriculture has a good reputation amongst banks due to its relatively low failure rate and because, from the credit institutes' point of view, farm businesses behaved well during the recent bull market. Even compared with medium-sized businesses, the farming sector is small-structured with credit risks thus spread widely. However, a more rigorous selection procedure for credit is now expected and farmers will have to establish suitable control and risk management instruments if they wish to be credit worthy in future.

Austrian farmer, Maximilian Graf Hardegg, reassured the 700-strong Wintertagung audience that agriculture was still in a good position despite the current turbulent market. The growing world population would continue to need a steady food supply.

But German farmer, Deert Rieve, from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern warned of the liquidity trap. Volatile price fluctuations mean variations in margins, the size of which had never before been experienced, he pointed out. Input costs and product selling price must therefore be more closely controlled than ever before. Those enterprises already struggling under the burden of debt could only expect conditions to worsen, he felt. And he called for more attention to unit costs: business risks were linked with the size of these and so reducing the unit costs reduced the financial risks. In a volatile market, precise knowledge of unit costs was also crucial in determining time of product sale.

Imperative in such markets was the possibility of short-term adjustment of land rents, reckoned Mr Rieve. Additionally, investments needed to be adjusted to match more closely fluctuating liquidity. Finally, new business strategies for deflation and inflation phases needed to be developed. Inflation had the effect of depleting reserves of high performance businesses and so in such cases investment was often better than adding to capital reserves.

Grain Shortage Expected
Commodity expert, Mr Hitzfield expects a significant grain deficit in the coming fiscal year. He predicted world wheat production would fall from 676 million tonnes to 627 million tonnes. Consumption will remain stable since the drop in transport costs would probably cause increased demand from typical deficit regions.

Even a more conservative estimate with demand remaining unchanged at 652 million tonnes could result in world stocks being reduced from 140 to 115 million tonnes in 2009/10 which meant only a 62-day supply for the world population after the end of the season, reckoned Mr Hitzfeld. "Then we are very rapidly back to the price highs where we were 15 months ago," he said.

Adverse weather conditions could also cause a new wave of export embargos and excessive speculation. In this case, a justified price increase of 30 per cent could rapidly become a doubling of price for the most important food grains, leading possibly to new protests at more expensive foods.

Don't be Greedy!
Grain dealer, Frank Gagel, warned the whole sector to forget about wringing the last Euro out of every deal. In the future, buyers'’ and sellers' markets would alternate frequently and this meant a need for a new partnership between trade and agriculture. Supply the market regularly and, where prices are right, make the occasional delivery contract, Mr Gagel advised farmers.

"When costs are covered and the profit margin is acceptable, as a farmer, I must get rid of my product," he said. Taking the example of spring 2008, he said that it was hard to understand from a dealer's point of view why, with total production costs for wheat at around €150 per tonne, many farmers had failed to part from their crop when buyers were offering €250 per tonne or more.


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mikey
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« Reply #19 on: February 11, 2009, 02:01:14 PM »

 Pork, chicken prices could go up on corn shortage
[11 February 2009] The possible corn shortage in the country could mean higher pork and chicken prices, two lawmakers from the Philippines said. Representatives Nicanor Briones of the Agricultural Sector Alliance of the Philippines and Rodolfo Plaza of Agusan del Sur both called on the government to ensure adequate supply of corn. While corn prices have dropped to about PHP 15-18 (USD 0.32-0.38)/kg in the last couple of weeks, Mr Briones warned that this is temporary and that “the price may increase any time if the buffer stock is depleted.” The government in January allowed for the importation of about 200,000 tonnes of corn but this is not expected to arrive until about March or April this year.

 
 
 
 
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« Reply #20 on: February 18, 2009, 02:50:02 AM »

17 February 2009] Although Luzon is currently suffering from a tight supply of yellow corn for feeds, surplus in the Visayas and Mindanao will be enough to tide over end-users until the summer harvest starts in March. A surplus of 360,000 in the Vis-Min Region that will go to Luzon. Livestock and poultry farmers had earlier projected a supply shortfall of about 600,000 tonnes for the year, while the government said it may be around 300,000 tonnes. However, more accurate forecast can only be made after the summer harvest in March and April.
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« Reply #21 on: February 20, 2009, 03:22:32 AM »

[19 February 2009] Pork and poultry prices are likely go down next month in the Philippines as corn harvest peaks and more corn is shipped from abroad. "We expect prices to ease by the middle of March because imports by the private sector are coming and farmers in northern Luzon, will already harvest," Agriculture Assistant Secretary Salvador S. Salacup said. The price increase was brought on by shortage in corn supply in the second week of December to the third week of January. Retail prices of whole chicken went up by PHP 10/kg (USD 0.21) to PHP 130/kg (USD 2.75) while egg price increased to PHP 4.40/piece (USD 0.09) from PHP 4.25/piece (USD 0.08).
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« Reply #22 on: February 25, 2009, 11:20:34 PM »

[17 February 2009] Although Luzon is currently suffering from a tight supply of yellow corn for feeds, surplus in the Visayas and Mindanao will be enough to tide over end-users until the summer harvest starts in March. A surplus of 360,000 in the Vis-Min Region that will go to Luzon. Livestock and poultry farmers had earlier projected a supply shortfall of about 600,000 tonnes for the year, while the government said it may be around 300,000 tonnes. However, more accurate forecast can only be made after the summer harvest in March and April.
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« Reply #23 on: February 27, 2009, 05:30:13 AM »

26 February 2009] Philippine feedmillers and meat producers are likely to delay importing 140,000 tonnes of corn to May when stock of locally grown corn is low. They said the price of local corn in May would increase and the delay would help cool down the market price after the arrival of imported corn. The Philippine government allowed the importation of 200,000 tonnes of corn in January but only only meat processing giant San Miguel Crop imported 62,400 tonnes at lower tax.
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« Reply #24 on: March 03, 2009, 03:23:20 AM »

From today's Manila Times

Monday, March 02, 2009


Lawmaker warns of severe corn shortage

Rep. Taliño-Mendoza pushes for a new Corn Research Institute to ensure
grain supply in the future

CARMEN, Cotabato: Amid the strained supply of corn nationwide, Rep.
Emmylou Taliño-Mendoza of Cotabato is pushing for the creation of a
new Corn Research Institute (CRI) under the Department of Agriculture
(DA) to ensure that the country's future requirements of the grain are
adequately met.

"We should dedicate a whole new institute to draw up a comprehensive
corn research program, build up production, improve the economic
condition of farmers, and expand livelihood opportunities in the
countryside," said Taliño-Mendoza, whose home province is one of the
country's leading producers of maize.

"Growing demand for corn as food, feed and for industrial use is
inevitable. With land becoming a limiting factor, we must now quickly
raise farm productivity levels. Otherwise, we definitely risk more
severe corn shortages in the years ahead," Taliño-Mendoza warned.

"We already have several public and private research institutes for
rice. We need at least one comparable, high-technology research
institute for corn," she added.

Local corn prices soared from P13.50 to as high as P25 per kilo
earlier this year on account of tight supply. The scarcity prompted
the DA to allow up to 200,000 metric tons of corn imports for delivery
this month, and for use by poultry and hog growers and feed millers.

Next to rice, corn is the country's second most important crop. It is
the staple food of about 20 percent of the population, and the main
component of livestock and poultry feed. Over 2.5 million hectares of
the country's arable land is planted to corn, which supports more than
600,000 farm households nationwide. More than 40 percent of the
country's annual corn output comes from Mindanao.

Due to the rising cost of inputs and the lifting of the tariff on feed
wheat imports that compete with domestic corn, local farmers grouped
under the Philippine Maize Federation Inc. expect this year's
production of the grain to be significantly lower than the DA's
7.8-million metric tons target.

Taliño-Mendoza attributed inadequate corn output on farm inefficiency.
She pointed out that while experimental stations are able to yield up
to eight tons per hectare, farmers in the field are able to produce
only three to 4.5 tons.

Last year, the country produced 6.95 million metric tons of corn. This
was 1.01-million metric tons short of the DA's original 7.96-million
metric tons target, and only slightly higher than the 6.7 million
metric tons output in 2007.

Taliño-Mendoza warned that corn farms are being degraded by rapid soil
erosion. "Left unchecked, this will further contribute to declining
productivity levels," she said.

She also said fierce global competition has increased pressure on
farmers to promptly raise productivity, reduce cost per unit, and
improve yield quality.

Under Taliño-Mendoza's proposal, the CRI would serve as hub of all
corn research and development (R&D) initiatives by the public and
private sectors.

The institute would carry out its own research and development
activities, specifically in improving varieties, planting and
fertilizer management, integrated pest control, farm mechanization,
post-harvest engineering, farming systems, training and technology
transfer, and social science and policy research.



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« Reply #25 on: March 05, 2009, 01:28:29 AM »

[4 March 2009] San Miguel Corporation (SMV) has reiterated its interest in acquiring a stake in the Mariveles Grains Terminal in Bataan province, despite pending court cases involving it, a report from the Philippine Daily Inquirer said. Earlier, SMC and Japan's Toyota Tsusho Corp had agreed to jointly acquire a stake in the terminal for PHP 1.6 billion (USD 33.28 million). The terminal is currently being operated by Asian Terminals Inc (ATI) from which SMC subleases two hectares of the facility. The grains terminal is a gateway for flour, soy bean, corn and other grains and SMC operates a feed plant in the area that can produce 500,000 tonnes annually.
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« Reply #26 on: March 19, 2009, 01:07:14 AM »

CORN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed up on Monday. MAY’09 corn futures closed at $3.915/bu; up 3.0 ¢ /bu. The JULY’09 contract closed at $4.0175/bu; up 3.5 ¢ /bu. DEC’09 corn futures finished at $4.215/bu; up 3.25 ¢ /bu. Acreage battles, spillover from other markets, and a weaker U.S. dollar that helped exports were supportive. USDA placed corn-inspected-for-export at 29 mi bu vs. estimates for between 37-41 mi bu. Cash corn bids in the US Midwest were steady from merchandisers and stronger from processors. Funds decreased net bear positions buying over 8,000 contracts. It might be a good idea to get the ’08 crop out of the way, clean the bin out for the ’09 crop, and price up to 45 per cent of the 2009 crop if you haven’t done so already.

SOYBEAN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were up on Monday. MAY’09 soybean futures closed at $9.110/bu; up 34.5 ¢ /bu. The JULY’09 contract was up 32.25 ¢ /bu at $9.075/bu. The NOV’09 contract closed at $8.504/bu; up 26.75 ¢ /bu. Technical moves such as soy/corn spreading were supportive indicating a positioning of the market ahead of a looming “crop-acres” battle. Exports were better than expected with USDA placing soybeans-inspected-for-export at 27.2 mi bu vs. expectations for between 23-26 mi bu. Cash soybeans were mostly steady as funds decreased net bear positions buying as much as 5,000 lots. It is a good idea to sell all old crop soybeans and get up to 25 per cent of the ’09 crop priced now.

WHEAT futures in Chicago (CBOT) closed up on Monday. The MAY’09 contract closed at $5.442/bu; up 26.0 ¢ /bu. JULY’09 wheat futures finished up 26.0 ¢ /bu at $5.556/bu. Strong technical signs, short covering, stiff outside markets, dry weather in the US Plains, and a weaker U.S. dollar were supportive. USDA placed wheat-inspected-for-export at 12.6 mi bu vs. expectations for between 13-17 mi bu. Funds bought up to 4,000 contracts signaling an end to past levels of short positions. It is a very good idea to get up to 25 per cent of the 2009 crop sold at this time.



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« Reply #27 on: March 25, 2009, 09:56:34 AM »

Tuesday, March 24, 2009Print This Page
Weekly Outlook: What’s Next For Soybean Prices?
US - The USDA’s updated projections of consumption of US corn during the current marketing year serve as a reminder of the central role that market size will play over the next several months, writes Darrel Good, Extension Economist at the University of Illinois.



Soybean futures contracts for the 2008 crop sunk to contract lows in early December 2008 and the average spot cash price in central Illinois dropped under $8.00 per bushel. Prices rallied sharply into early January 2009, with the central Illinois cash price moving above $10.00. Prices collapsed again in early March with the cash price dropping to about $8.35, but rebounded sharply last week with the central Illinois spot cash bid ending the week at $9.38.

Much of last week’s rally in prices was associated with higher energy prices, a rally in financial markets, and a weaker U.S. dollar. These markets, in turn, were influenced by U.S. monetary policy that ignited expectations of an upcoming period of rapid inflation in the U.S. economy. Developments within the soybean complex also continue to be somewhat supportive for soybean prices.

On March 11, the USDA confirmed prospects for a relatively small South American soybean harvest. That crop is now forecast at 3.894 billion bushels, 30 million smaller than the February forecast, and 364 million less than harvested in 2008. The smaller crop bodes well for the export demand for U.S. soybeans for the next 12 months. In addition, potential disruptions to Argentine exports due to ongoing disputes over export taxes may send more near term export business to the U.S. The USDA is already forecasting record soybean exports for the current marketing year. Census Bureau export estimates from September 2008 through January 2009 exceeded cumulative USDA estimates by 32 million bushels. If that margin continued through mid-March, weekly shipments from March 20 through August 31 will need to average only about 11 million bushels per week to reach the USDA projection. New sales of about 4.5 million bushels per week will be needed to reach sales at the projected level of exports of 1.185 billion bushels. The magnitude of sales to China, which has accounted for 58 percent of U.S. export business so far this year, will be watched closely for indications of the strength of old crop export demand.

The weak link in U.S. soybean demand so far in the 2008-09 marketing year is the slow pace of the domestic crush. Crush during the first 5 months of the year totaled 707 million bushels, 84 million less than during the first 5 months of the previous marketing year. The small crush reflected reduced consumption, export and domestic, of both soybean oil and soybean meal. Meal exports, however, were large in January 2009 and data from the Oilseed Processors Association indicated that the February crush was larger than generally expected. Census Bureau estimates for February are not yet available.

A major factor for soybean price prospects is the expected size of the 2009 U.S. crop. Some insight will be provided by the USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report. However, substantial acreage uncertainty will persist beyond that report. The market likely underestimates the ability of producers to adjust planting decisions after March 31. In addition, the question of total crop land acreage planted in 2009 will remain after March 31. Some focus is on the upper Plains right now where melting snow and rainfall will create flooding issues. The market is always quick to think that acreage could go unplanted. That may or may not happen this year. In addition, a continuation of higher crop prices may result in a smaller reduction in total planted acreage than has been forecast. Longer term, yield prospects for the 2009 U.S. soybean crop will become important. A return to a trend yield near 42.5 bushels per acre, for example, would add about 215 million bushels to production in 2009 with no increase in acreage.

The rebound in soybean futures prices and the continuation of a strong basis is giving producers an opportunity to price a portion of the unsold 2008 crop. Decisions for the 2009 crop are more difficult. November futures are slightly above the spring price guarantee for crop revenue insurance so there is some downside risk for unpriced new crop soybeans. That risk is small for the insured portion of the crop, but greater for the uninsured portion. The real dilemma surrounding pricing of the 2009 crop, however, is associated with determining value in a rapidly changing economic environment. Is economic recovery and demand strength eminent? Is the economy headed for a period of rapid inflation and how would that influence soybean prices? Such uncertainty favors a marketing strategy of frequent, small sales. There is more than a year left to sell the 2009 crop.




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« Reply #28 on: April 02, 2009, 07:49:15 AM »

Wednesday, April 01, 2009Print This Page
Weekly Outlook: Friendly Reports
US - The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report indicates that US producers intend to plant less acreage in 2009 than in 2008. Planting intentions for all crops included in the March survey are 7.8 million acres less than acreage seeded to those crops in 2008. Including acreage of hay intended for harvest, the decline is about 7.6 million, writes Darrel Good, Extension Economist at the University of Illinois.



Declines total 4.5 million for wheat, 1.3 million for sorghum, nearly 1 million for corn, 658,000 for cotton, 446,000 for sunflowers, 410,000 for peanuts, and 154,000 for canola. For wheat, 75 per cent of the acreage reduction is for winter wheat, even though winter wheat seedings are 791,000 acres larger than reported in January. Intended acreage of soybeans is 306,000 more than planted in 2008 and intended acreage of rice is 188,000 more than planted in 2008. Intended acreage of all oilseed crops included in this report is 672,500 less than planted in 2008. Intended acreage of feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley, and oats) is 2.4 million less than planted in 2008.

For corn, the largest changes in acreage are planned in Missouri (up 250,000) and North Dakota (down 250,000). Illinois producers intend to increase corn acreage by 100,000, while producers in Iowa intend to reduce acreage by the same amount. Intended acreage in Indiana is equal to last year’s plantings.

Corn planting intentions of 84.986 million acres point to acreage harvested for grain of 77.786 million. The long term trend yield of 152.8 bushels per acre, then, points to a 2009 harvest of 11.862 billion bushels, 239 million smaller than the 2008 harvest. A crop of that size would likely result in a sharp decline in stocks by the end of the 2009-10 marketing year as both exports and ethanol use of corn are expected to increase during the year ahead.

For soybeans, intended acreage is below actual plantings in 2008 by 150,000 acres in Missouri and South Dakota, 100,000 acres in Illinois, and 50,000 acres in Indiana, Louisiana, and Minnesota. The largest increase, 200,000 acres, is planned in Kansas, with increases of 100,000 planned in Iowa, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Ohio.

Soybean planting intentions of 76.024 million acres points to harvested acreage of about 75 million. The long term trend yield of 41.6 bushels per acre, then, points to a 2009 harvest of 3.12 billion bushels, 160 million larger than the 2008 harvest. A crop of that size would likely lead to a small increase in stocks by the end of the 2009-10 marketing year.

Intended acreage of spring wheat, including durum, is estimated at 15.749 million, 1.117 million less than seeded in 2008. Winter wheat seedings are estimated at 42.889 million, 3.392 million less than seeded the previous year.

Stocks of corn on 1 March 2009 were estimated at 6.958 billion bushels, implying that corn used for all purposes during the second quarter of the 2008-09 marketing year totaled about 3.13 billion bushels. 1 March stocks are 100 million bushels larger than those of a year earlier and use during the second quarter was 293 million less than the record use of a year earlier. Exports during the quarter were off 262 million and domestic use declined by only 31 million. Feed use during the quarter was down while use for ethanol production was larger.

Stocks of soybeans on 1 March 2009 were estimated at 1.302 billion bushels, implying that use during the second quarter of the 2008-09 marketing year totaled 976 million bushels. March 1 stocks are about 132 million smaller than on the same date last year and use during the second quarter was 46 million larger than use of a year earlier. The domestic crush was down nearly 47 million bushels; exports up about 50 million; and seed, feed, and residual use was 42 million larger.

Stocks of wheat on 1 March 2009 were estimated at 1.037 billion bushels, 327 million larger than stocks of a year earlier. The estimate, however, is 25 million bushels less than the average pre-report guess.

Taken together, the USDA reports of planting intentions and 1 March stocks are supportive for corn, soybean, and wheat prices. Acreage intended for all crops in 2009 is less than expected and intended acreage of both soybeans and wheat is less than expected. Intended corn acreage is a bit higher than the average pre-report guess, but the large decline in intended acreage of barley and sorghum probably exceeds expectations. March 1 stocks of all three crops were slightly smaller than the average pre-report guesses.

Prices may show a modest response to these reports, but the market will also begin to anticipate how actual plantings may differ from intentions. In addition, financial, currency, and energy markets will continue to have an influence on crop prices as those markets influence over all demand prospects.

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« Reply #29 on: April 02, 2009, 12:28:34 PM »

Less global wheat production this year 27 Mar 2009
According to the International Grains Council (IGC), the global wheat production should fall to 651 million tonnes in 2009/10, down from a record 688 million in 2008/09.
Wheat carry-over stocks for 2009/10 were, however, seen rising 11 million tonnes to 171 million with consumption expected to fall to 640 million from 643 million in 2008/09 due to a drop in animal feed use.

The IGC, in a monthly report, also forecast the 2009/10 world maize crop at 775 million tonnes, down from 782 million in 2008/09 and a record 787 million in 2007/08.

[source: Reuters]

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