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Author Topic: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities  (Read 94339 times)

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Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #270 on: March 18, 2014, 12:31:00 PM »
Hybrid Import and Domestic Development Model to Support China’s Food Demand13 March 2014 CHINA - A quadrupling in the world’s population in the past 100 years has required a fundamental change in soil and crop management to meet growing food demand globally.In China, the issue of food security is driving the development of a hybrid model and changing the way in which the region will feed itself in the long-term. China’s food security will ultimately rely on the professionalisation of its agricultural system through the infrastructure of research, education, and farm extension services, supplemented with the import of lower value feed grains from the US and Brazil as China continues to buy and build a global supply chain. “Output efficiency of domestic crops in China have been significantly hindered in previous years”, states Rabobank analyst, Dirk Jan Kennes. “China’s farming industry is characterised by an unsustainably high level of nitrogen fertiliser (N-fertiliser) usage, and inefficiently low crop uptake of fertiliser nutrients (N-uptake). Its low agricultural production efficiency is also due to lower average arable land area per farm (restricting machinery usage) and relatively low-level farmer knowledge”. China’s agricultural production is set to see a number of effective improvements under Government land reform policies. Farmers will have the opportunity to transfer collective land to large-scale, professional farms. In turn, this ‘professionalisation’ will encourage more operational economies of scale. For example, the development of family farms focussing on agricultural activities with greater economic value like intensive food-grain production in rotation with high added-value crops like potatoes, onions, and livestock farming. In conjunction with this, governments, institutions, firms and farmers in China have been actively exploring ways to use fertiliser effectively, and some best practice standards have already been formulated. However, China’s fertiliser application rate is still accelerating and the current low levels of N-uptake means it is absorbed into the environment causing soil and water acidification, contamination of surface and groundwater resources, and rising greenhouse gas emissions. Imports of low-value grain from markets with better N-uptake and lower fertiliser input can supplement China’s domestic supply. Feed grain imports can significantly improve the efficiency of the pork value chain, for example. The input of N-fertiliser per unit of pork production in China is 3.5 times greater than in the US. Importing the Dutch agricultural model of technology-intensive livestock farming as well as the N-fertiliser-to-corn efficiency from the Americas can significantly narrow the fertiliser to production output gap in China; and by doing so, China could also save more than 174,000 tonnes of nitrogen fertiliser inputs, 11 million tonnes of corn and nearly 1.75 million hectares of land greatly limiting environmental damage. “China’s interest in acquiring and developing agricultural know-how as well as its initiative to buy-and-build a leading global agricultural trading house supports its agricultural development and is allowing it to make the best of both worlds”, states Kennes.


Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #271 on: March 23, 2014, 10:29:20 AM »

How Will Ukraine Unrest Affect Grain Production?
21 March 2014


ANALYSIS - The political turmoil in Ukraine at the present could lead to a drop in grain production according to the president of the Russian Grain Union Arkardy Zlochevskiy, writes Chris Harris.

Last year Ukraine’s grain harvest reached 63 million tonnes compared to 46.2 million tonnes in the previous year.

However, despite the problems in Ukraine, the Russian Grain Union president said that he expects the unstable financial security of the Ukrainian industry will improve and the events in Ukraine will not have an effect on the global grain market.

Mr Zlochevskiy said that many in the sector are concerned about the possible block on shipments from Ukraine, but he said that shipments are continuing.

“They have not fallen, no contracts are being torn up and none of the niche markets have been lost,” he said.

He added that Russia is also continuing to supply its traditional markets with grain and he foresees no particular problems.

He also did not think there would be any sanctions against Russian grain exports and that countries would refuse Russian exports because Russian grain prices are cheaper compared to US grain prices and more competitive.

According to market analysts FC Stone, the Black Sea region is still set to become a key grains supplier to the Asian market, with corn exports specifically expected to continue rising out of the region.

The Black Sea has increased its export trade to Asia, in particular Japan and Korea, in recent years, following a bumper year for crops.

In the meantime, Ukraine has been strengthening its ties to international organisations.

This week, Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture officials were in Rome to discuss new financing instruments for agricultural producers in Ukraine.

The talks involved the possibility of a joint project with the UN’s FAO and well as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

The scheme would help finance Ukrainian agricultural producers backed by guaranteed harvests in Ukraine.



Chris Harris, Editor-in-Chief




Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #272 on: April 05, 2014, 07:52:24 AM »

Thai Soybean Consumption Expected to Rebound
04 April 2014
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

THAILAND - Soybean consumption is expected to rebound in MY 2013/14 and MY 2014/15 in line with rising demand for soybean meal. The increase is being driven by Thailand’s growing livestock sector, especially in broiler, egg and pig operations.

Demand from the aquaculture sector, primarily shrimp, is also increasing. Soybean imports are expected to grow in MY2013/14 and MY2014/15, accordingly. Local crushers normally import US soybeans only when South American supplies are short or North American prices are low.

US market share of the Thai soybean import market soared to 32 per cent in MY 2012/13 as a result of serious drought in Brazil and Argentina. However, the US share is likely to fall again to 19 to 20 per cent in MY 2013/14 as soybean crop production in the southern hemisphere return to normal levels.

All soybean meal, either derived from domestic production or imports, is utilized for animal feed production. Soybean meal imports in MY2013/14 are expected to be 11 per cent higher than MY 2012/13 and climb another three per cent in MY 2014/15.

Thailand’s major soybean meal import suppliers are Brazil, Argentina, and India. US soybean meal recently became more competitive when US soybean meal prices declined sharply in October and November 2013, and as a result, Thailand is likely to import 300,000 to 400,000 metric tons (MT) of US soybean meal in 2014.

Fish meal production is expected to be around 450,000 to 460,000MT in 2014 and 2015.

Soybean oil production is estimated to increase in MY2013/14 and MY2014/15, in line with expected higher soybean deliveries to crushing facilities. Thailand is becoming a large supplier of soybean oil to other ASEAN and Asian economies, exporting 55,000 to 60,000MT in the past few years. Its exports should increase to 70,000 to 75,000MT in MY 2014 and 2015.

Thailand’s trade and production policies on soybeans, soybean meal, fish meal and soybean oil remain unchanged from last year’s report.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #273 on: April 11, 2014, 12:02:53 PM »
By Naveen Thukral and Niu Shuping

SINGAPORE/BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese importers have defaulted on at least 500,000 tons of U.S. and Brazilian soybean cargoes worth around $300 million, the biggest in a decade, as buyers struggle to get credit amid losses in processing beans.

Three companies in the eastern province of Shandong had defaulted on payments for shipments as they were unable to open letters of credit with banks, trade sources said on Thursday.

A string of defaults on loans, bonds and shadow banking products in recent weeks has highlighted rising credit risks in China, partly fuelled by signs the economy is slowing.

Commodity firms, along with semiconductor and software companies, are among the most at risk of credit defaults, a Reuters analysis of more than 2,600 Chinese companies showed.

Up against the cooling economy and signs that authorities will not step in every time a loan goes bad, Chinese banks are becoming more hard-nosed and selective about whom they lend to.

"There are five to six (panamax) cargoes which are unable to be unloaded at ports because buyers cannot open LCs (letters of credit) and there are no LCs for an additional 5-6 cargoes floating on the sea," one Beijing-based source said. Each panamax cargo is for 50,000 to 60,000 tonnes.

Defaults by buyers in China, which imports 60 percent of the soybeans traded in the world, would likely cap a rally in global prices as they coincide with bumper supplies from Brazil and Argentina hitting the market.

Chicago Board of Trade front-month soybeans edged lower on Thursday after climbing to their highest since July in the last session when the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its forecast for stocks remaining at the end of the crop year.

"The reality is that the world is reliant on Chinese imports of soybeans to maintain this price strength," said Luke Mathews, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

"It is putting a question mark on the sustainability of these prices."

The default on 500,000 tonnes of soybeans is the biggest since 2004, when buyers walked away from an estimated 30 contracts, resulting in a loss of close to $700 million, traders said.

Industry sources said some of the companies defaulting have been using soybean imports to secure cheap financing, with interest rates on letters of credit as low as 2 percent and allowing delayed payment of several months.

Having imported large amounts, some of them even sell the oilseed at a loss, as a way to liquidate their stocks and plough cash into more profitable businesses.

Fearing a wave of defaults as China's economy cools after decades of rapid growth, regulators in the past two years told banks to cut off financing to sectors plagued by excess capacity such as steel and cement.

Exporters, in a bid to gain a foothold in the lucrative Chinese market, sometimes ship cargoes when importers do not have confirmed letters of credit, trusting buyers will honor their commitment. The practice was briefly abandoned after the wave of defaults in 2004 but slowly resumed.

INDUSTRY EARTHQUAKE?

With negative processing margins and tightening credit, sources said there could be more defaults on cargoes of soybeans, crushed to make cooking oil and animal feed ingredient soymeal.

"More ships are coming in, but given the big losses banks are not risking opening LCs for those trading firms," said a senior company executive whose firm has faced rejections in getting letters of credit from banks. "It is really an earthquake for the industry."

Crushers are losing 500-600 yuan ($81-$97) for processing a tonne of soybeans, compared with a 600 yuan profit in the fourth quarter of last year during peak consumption and when some shipments were delayed.

The fat margin in the fourth quarter prompted China to purchase 27.7 million tonnes of U.S. soy so far in the current marketing year to August, 2014. China bought a total of 21 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans the year before.

China imported 15.35 million tonnes of the oilseed in the first quarter, up 33.5 percent on a year earlier, according to official Customs data issued on Thursday.

"Crushers are making big losses while downstream product meal is not selling very well," said an official at a body, which oversees soybean imports under the commerce ministry.

Imports could fall below 15 million tonnes in the third quarter from 18.25 million in the same period last year, traders and industry officials said.

"If you crush beans in China today you lose $80-$100 a tonne," said a Singapore-based senior executive with a global trading company that has processing facilities in China.

"This is really discouraging people from buying beans and we expect the real impact will be felt in the third quarter."

Demand for soymeal has been hit by outbreaks of bird flu, cutting appetite by as much as 20 to 30 percent in the February-March period, analysts said. Pig farmers have also reduced purchases as they trim herds due to oversupplied pork markets.

(Editing by Joseph Radford and Amran Abocar)

navipandora

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #274 on: May 02, 2014, 06:48:29 PM »
You're getting better every day.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #275 on: May 05, 2014, 05:36:50 AM »

Cereals 2014 to Focus on Feed
02 May 2014

UK - At next month’s Cereals, HGCA will have a special exhibit focusing on the importance of animal feed which is the single largest end use from UK arable farms.

At present, over half of the grain produced in the UK becomes animal feed either directly, or as co-products from other end uses. This corresponds with a rise in the UK wheat area given over to group 4 varieties which also stands at over 50 per cent.

“Farmers are attracted to feed varieties by the high yields on offer, which has bolstered the dominance of the feed wheat market,” explains Jack Watts, AHDB Lead Analyst. “But it is important to remember that feed grain markets still require high-quality, consistent and safe grain.”

HGCA has responded to this trend by looking at the whole animal feed sector so that HGCA can deliver real benefits to it. This includes a number of research projects on the nutritional value of grains and co-products as well as an analysis of the UK feed industry.

“Feed is not only an important end use in its own right, it supports the profitability and operation of the whole supply chain by making use of co-products,” says Dr Martin Grantley-Smith, HGCA Head of Business Development.

“Also, the feed industry is quite diverse as it provides products for a whole range of animals; firstly, you have ruminant and non-ruminant livestock which have quite different nutritional requirements. On top of that there are pet food, horse feed and feed for fish farms,” continues Dr Grantley-Smith.

“This means growers can target specific feed types by using the right varieties and agronomy helping boost profitability across the supply chain.”

To make this diverse range of products, the feed industry takes in all sorts of products from the UK and overseas including soya meal, sugar beet pulp and molasses, to name a few. However, the greatest part of the raw materials comes from UK arable farms so feed has been identified as a key area of work for HGCA.

Visitors to Cereals can find out more and discuss animal feed at the special exhibit on the HGCA stand.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #276 on: May 12, 2014, 12:03:43 AM »

Farmers Expect to Plant More Oilseeds, Pulses and Fewer Cereals
09 May 2014

Manitoba Pork Council



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CANADA - A weather and crop specialist with CWB reports prairie farmers are expecting to plant about the same number of acres this year as last, but more of those acres will be seeded to oilseed and pulse crops and fewer to cereal crops, according to Bruce Cochrane.

Although prairie farmers have gotten off to a slow start this planting season, similar to that of last year, spring seeding is expected to be fairly general across western Canada within the next week or so.

Bruce Burnett, a weather and crop specialist with CWB, reports it appears there will be more oilseed and pulse crops planted this year than last and fewer cereals.

Bruce Burnett-CWB

Certainly we got an idea from statistics Canada about farmers' seeding intentions.

Firstly it looks like they're going to plant a similar area to last year in terms of the overall planting so we expect another large area in terms of planted crops.

There's a general trend essentially away from wheat and durum and other cereal crops into things like oilseeds, especially crops like flax and pulses are expected to see some significant increases this year.

The main factors I think certainly have been relatively strong oilseed prices as well as the fact that we've seen prices at reasonable levels for pulse crops.

Fertilizer costs are probably at the forefront of a lot of farmers' minds right now too so that has resulted in an increase in the pulse crop area.

Mr Burnett says moisture reserves throughout western Canada look good.

He says there had been concern over dry conditions in the northern prairies but winter snow and timely spring rains have dramatically improved the situation.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #277 on: July 24, 2014, 11:10:34 AM »
North Korea Early Season Crops Affected by Dry Weather21 July 2014 NORTH KOREA - Harvesting of the 2014 early season’s potatoes and minor cereal crops of wheat and barley, is currently underway and will continue until the end of June.Generally favourable weather conditions during October and mid-March over much of the country supported planting and early development of winter cereals and early season potato crops. However, a prolonged dry spell during mid-March and late April resulted in severe soil moisture deficits affecting crops at a critical growing stage in the main producing provinces, including South Hwanghae, South Pyongan, North Pyongan and farmed areas of Pyongyang City. These provinces collectively contribute to the largest share of total national output. As a result, FAO latest estimate puts the 2014 wheat production at 74 500 tonnes, marginally above last year’s low level and almost 30 percent below the five-year average. No precise information on the full extent of the damage on the early season crops is yet available, but water deficits are expected to have negatively affected yields of the potato crops the most. Planting of the 2014 main season rice and maize crops normally starts in April and continues until mid-June. Rains resumed more normal patterns from the first dekad of May over the main crop-producing areas improving soil moisture and allowing maize and rice transplanting to take place. However, the delayed sowing and re-planting in parts, due to the insufficient rains in April, will likely negatively affect yields of the 2014 main season crops.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #278 on: October 05, 2014, 09:03:26 AM »
Higher Wheat Yields, Lower Quality Forecast for Canada02 October 2014Manitoba Pork Council



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CANADA - A weather and crop specialist with the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) says slightly above average grain yields combined with lower quality will result in an abundant supply of feed grains this year.

A late start to spring planting followed by above average rainfall during the growing season resulted in slow crop development and a difficult harvest.

Bruce Burnett, a weather and crop specialist with CWB, reports at the end of September the harvest is about 70 per cent complete in western Canada behind average and well behind last year's 90 per cent complete at this time of year.

Bruce Burnett - CWB:

The harvest in September basically had been interrupted by some heavy rains.

It started in the last week in August and into the first week in September.

That plus the fact that some of the crop was not ready yet certainly caused initial harvest delays.
We had very little of the crop, less than 30 percent of the crop harvested by the 15 of September but with some drier weather since the 15 of September we've seen that progress pick up considerably.

The rains again have been the biggest factor.

There were some frosts in the last week in August and certainly in the first week in September in certain regions.

We did see crops affected by that but only the latest crops were hurt in terms of crop quality and for the most part those areas, we did manage to get most areas mature before the first fall frost.

Mr Burnett says the availability of feed grain will be higher this year.

He says we are seeing some weathering problems in both wheat and barley so those crops will see higher amounts of feed available and we are seeing lower protein wheats that will likely be priced into the feed market.


Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #279 on: October 13, 2014, 05:06:56 AM »
Manitoba Pork Council



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CANADA - High levels of fusarium head blight infection in this year's winter wheat crop is creating a significant challenge for those planning to feed the grain to livestock, writes Bruce Cochrane.

The executive director of Winter Cereals Canada reports exceptionally high levels of fusarium head blight infection in this year's winter wheat crop is creating a significant challenge for those planning to feed the grain to livestock.

Fusarium head blight, a fungal disease that infects cereal crops, produces a toxin that dramatically reduces the end use quality of the grain.

As a result of unusually wet weather the level of fusarium infection has been exceptionally high in winter wheat this year.

Jake Davidson, the executive director of Winter Cereals Canada, notes the ten year rolling average from 2004 for fusarium infection is 3.4 per cent which compares to 11.6 per cent this year with levels as high as 17.2 per cent reported with very high levels of toxin.

Jake Davidson-Winter Cereals Canada:
The swine industry in Manitoba has relied quite heavily on winter wheat for several years and it's been very popular with the large colony operations but, again this year, the fusarium level being high it's going to be a problem for them to use this product up.

In a lot of cases the yields didn't look that bad but once they got it off and get a good look at it there's a problem.

We can dilute down but if you've grown a section and a half or two or more sections of winter wheat and it comes back very high it definitely causes some problems and I do know of various colonies trading off and working quite hard to find ways and means of getting out of the winter wheat unfortunately and they're looking at bringing in corn.

Mr Davidson says we're short on the high grades of winter wheat this year and long on the low grades, so finding a use for it is going to be a problem.


Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #280 on: November 17, 2014, 07:31:31 AM »
14 November 2014

US - US soybean farmers continue to provide their international customers with reliable, quality products, and those customers have once again rewarded them with big purchases.

In the 2013/2014 marketing year, the United States exported over two billion bushels of US soy, valued at more than $30 billion.

The year got off to a fast start, exceeding the predicted export numbers in early 2014 and finishing strong with record-size crops starting to come out of the fields.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, the 2013/2014 export total includes more than 1.6 billion bushels of whole US soybeans, meal from 484 million bushels of US soybeans and oil from 161 million bushels. This total represents 62 per cent of US soybean production from last year.

“US soybean farmers are committed to meeting global demand with a quality product,” says Dwain Ford, United Soybean Board International Opportunities Target Area Coordinator and soybean farmer from Kinmundy, Illinois.

“These export numbers prove that US soy is a highly valued product in the global marketplace and that US soybean farmers are doing our job.”

Top buyers of whole US soybeans in 2013/2014 include:
• China: 1.013 billion bushels
• Mexico: 124 million bushels
• Indonesia: 75 million bushels

Top buyers of US soybean meal in 2014 include:
• Mexico: meal from 68 million bushels of US soybeans
• Philippines: meal from 59 million bushels
• Canada: meal from 45 million bushels

Top buyers of US soybean oil in 2014 include:
• Mexico: oil from 36 million bushels of US soybeans
• China: oil from 35 million bushels
• Dominican Republic: oil from 22 million bushels

The 70 farmer-directors of USB oversee the investments of the soy checkoff to maximise profit opportunities for all US soybean farmers.

These volunteers invest and leverage checkoff funds to increase the value of US soy meal and oil, to ensure US soybean farmers and their customers have the freedom and infrastructure to operate, and to meet the needs of US soy’s customers.

As stipulated in the federal Soybean Promotion, Research

 

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