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Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #255 on: August 04, 2013, 11:41:35 AM »

USDA Weekly Grain Update: Corn, Soy See Sharp Declines, Wheat Higher
02 August 2013



US - Compared to last week, grain and soybean bids closed lower with wheat trading higher.

Corn and soybeans again this week saw modest to sharp declines depending on basis levels. Rain remains in the forecast for the next 5-7 days help to post new lows for corn and soybeans.

The sharply higher dollar on Thursday also help to pressure the market along with non-threatening temperatures.

Lower temperatures with limited chances for stressful heat has much of the Corn Belt seeing good to excellent growing conditions which has put confidence at this time of the possibility of a huge crop year in the making.

Elevators and processors have lowered their basis on increased producer selling and buyers’ having sufficient supplies until new crop is available.

Weekly export sales for corn were bullish at 1,225,200 mt (48.2 mb) with 134,000 mt (5.3 mb) for 2012-2013 season. Soybeans had bullish export sales of 1,109,400 mt (40.8 mb) with 78,500 mt (2.9 mb) for 2012-2013. Wheat had bullish export sales of 596.900 mt (21.9 mb).

Wheat was mostly 5-16 cents higher. Yellow Corn traded in a wide range depending on basis levels from 13-78 cents lower and Sorghum 13 to 1.82 cents lower. Soybeans closed 12-61 cents lower.

WHEAT
•Kansas City US No 1 Hard Red Winter, ordinary protein rail bid was 5 1/2 to 14 1/2 cents higher from 8.01 3/4-8.52 3/4 per bushel.
•Kansas City US No 2 Soft Red winter rail bid was not quoted.
•St. Louis truck US No 2 Soft Red Winter terminal bid was 16 cents higher at 6.84 per bushel.
•Minneapolis and Duluth US No 1 Dark Northern Spring, 14.0 to 14.5 percent protein rail, was 11 cents lower to 5 cents higher from 8.16 3/4-8.32 3/4 per bushel.
•Portland US Soft White wheat rail was 5 3/4-23 3/4 cents higher from 7.23-7.30 per bushel.

CORN
•Kansas City US No 2 rail White Corn was 1.00-1.09 cents lower from
•5.32-6.42 per bushel.
•Kansas City US No 2 truck Yellow Corn was 73-78 cents lower at 5.88 per bushel.
•Omaha US No 2 truck Yellow Corn was 3 cents lower to 4 cents higher from 5.70-5.73 per bushel.
•Chicago US No 2 Yellow Corn was 88 1/2 cents lower to 16 ½ cents higher from 4.67 1/2-6.12 1/2 per bushel.
•Toledo US No 2 rail Yellow corn was 13 1/2-48 1/2 cents lower from 5.87 1/2-6.27 1/2 per bushel.
•Minneapolis US No 2 Yellow corn rail was 12 1/2 cents higher at 5.72 1/2 per bushel.

OATS AND BARLEY
•US 2 or Better oats, rail bid to arrive at Minneapolis 20 day was 1 3/4 cents higher from 3.69 3/4-3.74 3/4 per bushel.
•US No 3 or better rail malting Barley, 70 percent or better plump out of Minneapolis was 5 cents
•lower at 6.85 per bushel.
•Portland US 2 Barley, unit trains and Barges-export was not available.

SORGHUM
•US No 2 yellow truck, Kansas City was 1.82 cents lower at 9.14 per cwt.
•Texas High Plains US No 2 yellow sorghum (prices paid or bid to the farmer, fob elevator) was 13 cents lower at 10.51 per cwt.

OILSEEDS
•Minneapolis Yellow truck soybeans were 11 3/4 lower at 13.22 1/2 per bushel.
•Illinois Processors US No 1 Yellow truck soybeans were 32 3/4-42 3/4 lower from 13.52 1/2-13.62 1/2 per bushel.
•Kansas City US No 2 Yellow truck soybeans were 61 cents lower at 12.68 per bushel.
•Central Illinois 48 percent Soybean meal, processor rail bid was 64.40 to 70.40 lower from 447.40-477.40 per ton.
•Central Illinois Crude Soybean oil processor bid was 152 to 157 points lower from 41.19-42.74 cents per pound.
- See more at: http://www.thecropsite.com/news/14353/usda-weekly-grain-update-corn-soy-see-sharp-declines-wheat-higher#sthash.rzhgCwtL.dpuf


Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #256 on: August 19, 2013, 09:08:23 AM »

Special Report: Corn, Soy Turn Bullish on USDA Report
12 August 2013

ANALYSIS - USDA's latest monthly supply and demand report showed a lower-than-expected US corn crop forecast, rallying corn and soybean futures on Monday, writes Jim Wyckoff for ThePigSite.

Corn futures had a lower start to the trading day but popped to the daily high on the USDA data. Corn prices did back down from initial gains seen in the immediate aftermath of the USDA report.

Traders expected the government to raise the corn crop size slightly, but instead USDA lowered production by 187 million bushels from July's report, to 13.763 billion bushels. The average corn yield was lowered to 154.4 bushels per acre, compared to 156.5 in July's USDA report. USDA also reduced old-crop corn carryover more than expected, to 719 million bushels. The government also reduced global corn carryover for 2013-14 by 800,000 metric tons (MT), to 150.17 million MT.

Corn is also supported early this week on news that Mexico on Monday bought 252,153 MT of U.S. corn for 2013-14 delivery.

Soybean futures prices were sporting good early gains and saw those price gains extended in the wake of a mildly bullish USDA monthly crop report. The USDA trimmed the size of the U.S. crop more than expected, to 3.255 billion bushels. The average soybean yield was pegged by USDA at 42.6 bushels per acre, versus 44.5 in July. USDA left its 2012-13 soybean carryover level at a tight 125 million bushels.

Also supportive to soybeans Monday is news China bought 713,000 MT of U.S. soybeans and an unknown destination purchased 140,000 MT of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14. Combined, this is the fifth largest daily soybean sale on record.

Corn and soybean traders are also keeping an eye on the weather, which calls for dry conditions across the Corn Belt well into next week, although temperatures are expected to remain moderate.

Wheat futures prices are slightly higher at midday Monday, following the USDA report. Wheat continues to be a follower of corn and soybeans. USDA left its all U.S. wheat crop estimate unchanged at 2.114 billion bushels, which is slightly bearish as traders looked for a slight drop in the wheat crop size.

USDA raised its 2013-14 U.S. wheat usage estimates more than expected to leave carryover at 551 million bushels. USDA raised its 2013-14 global wheat carryover forecast slightly from July, to 172.99 million MT.


Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #257 on: September 07, 2013, 10:31:17 PM »

CME: FCStone Releases Corn and Soybean Yield Estimates
06 September 2013
 

US - The prediction season continued yesterday with the release of corn and soybean yield estimates by FCStone and a yield survey by Reuters.

FCStone pegs the U.S. national average corn yield at 156.4 bushels per acre and the soybean yield at 41.2 bushels per acre. Allendale, Inc. announced earlier this week that its yield survey resulted in estimated national yields of 153.4 and 39 bushels per acre for corn and soybeans, respectively.

The results of the Reuters survey appear at right. Several press reports include anecdotal references to “200s” and “mid-200s” for yields in the early-harvested areas of southern Indiana and Illinois as well as good yield reports from the South. Those are indeed encouraging. The caveat is that those are not areas that we depend on for a large portion of the corn crop and are areas that have had better growing conditions this summer than has the heart of the corn and soybean growing region.

Given these estimates, the two biggest factors remaining are a) Acres and b) Frost. Remember that the August Farm Service Agency data for planted acres was substantially different from the >acres in the August World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

We get another read on acreages in the September 12 WASDE and September 17 FSA release. As for frost, we’ve kicked that one around pretty well already and we can find no short– or intermediate-term temperature outlooks that say a frost is imminent. We suppose that everyone will know about it when it happens.

Slaughter weights are always in important supply factor but they have the potential to significantly impact supplies of both pork and beef this fall. And what’s more, the impact is somewhat unknown due to some unusual factors such as the availability of Zilmax and a vastly different outlook for feed costs this fall.

Hog weights, as measured by barrows and gilts reported under mandatory price reporting (the vast majority of the top butcher hogs!) took a dip last week after growing steadily since mid-July. The upward turn in weights came a bit earlier than normal but coincided with some easing of feed costs and the big rally in cash hog prices that made extra pounds profitable. Last week’s dip could have been caused by hot weather but it seems a bit quick to observe such an abrupt impact. The return of cooler temperatures this week and the coming availability of new crop (ie. more palatable) corn portends a return to higher carcass weights. We still think there is a good chance that weights will exceed last year’s reduced levels by 4 pounds of so as soon as October, adding about 2% for pork supplies in an of themselves. An early frost could, of course, mute that increase due to higher corn prices but it would have to be a big one in terms of severity and area and it would have to come soon.

The cattle situation is quite different primarily due to the Zilmax situation and the fact that LAST YEAR saw the big jump in weights. Even lower feed prices have not kept weights growing so far in 2012 relative to the beta-agonist-induced increases of last year. We still do not expect the suspension of Zilmax sales to have a significant impact on weights since feeders can still use Optaflexx, a product that takes end weights to within 6-8 pounds of those usually achieved with Zilmax. The cattle numbers situation will be a factor as well since the inventory of cattle on feed for 120 days or more as of August 1 was 15% lower than one year ago. Those would be cattle due to come to market, generally, in August and September so yards may have to dig deeply to fill packer needs over the next 30 days, limiting the upward potential for average carcass weights.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #258 on: October 02, 2013, 02:26:14 AM »

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks Data Deemed Bearish for Corn, Soybeans
30 September 2013

Jim Wyckoff Commentary


ANALYSIS - Soybean futures prices are leading selling pressure with heavy losses at midday Monday, while corn futures are moderately lower and wheat near steady following bearish corn and soybean stocks data released in the latest U.S. Agriculture Department quarterly grain stocks report.

The September 1 U.S. corn stocks figure came in at 824 million bushels, which was well above the trade forecast of 688 million bushels.

Soybeans stocks came in at a higher-than-expected 141 million bushels compared to trade expectations of 126 million bushels as of September 1.

All U.S. wheat stocks came in at a lower-than-expected 1.855 billion bushels, as the trade expected 1.938 billion bushels.

U.S. corn stocks on September 1 are down 17% from year-ago. September 1 soybean stocks are also down 17% from year-ago.

On-farm wheat stocks are estimated at 547 million bushels, down 5% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks are put at 1.31 billion bushels., down 15% from last year.

Corn and soybean futures prices were already seeing selling pressure recently, due to the bearish seasonal U.S. harvest pressure that has U.S. cash basis levels in a generally weakened state.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #259 on: October 16, 2013, 09:06:58 AM »
World Cereal Production to Jump Eight Per Cent in 201311 October 2013 GLOBAL - The outlook for global cereal supply in the 2013/14 marketing season remains generally favourable despite downward adjustments to forecasts for world cereal production and closing stocks, according to the latest issue of FAO's quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation report.Despite this downward adjustment, world cereal production would still surpass the 2012 level by nearly 8 per cent. Meanwhile, the FAO Food Price Index dropped for the fifth month in a row in September, driven by a sharp fall in the international prices of cereals. The prices of dairy, oils, meat and sugar rose slightly. The Index, which measures the monthly change in the international prices of a basket of 55 food commodities, averaged 199.1 points last month, 2.3 points or 1 per cent below its August value. It is down 11 points or 5.4 per cent since the beginning of the year. However, it is still higher than in the same period in 2009 or 2010. FAO will hold a second Ministerial Meeting on International Food Prices on Monday 7 October at its Rome headquarters to provide a forum to discuss food price volatility and the policy challenges it poses. More than 40 government ministers are expected. Cereal production up by 8 per cent over 2012 At 2 489 million tonnes, FAO's current forecast for world cereal production in 2013 is marginally lower (by 3 million tonnes) than reported in September, mainly reflecting poorer prospects for the South America wheat crop, following adverse weather. The expected 8 per cent increase in world cereal production this year over 2012 is mainly the result of an 11 per cent anticipated expansion in coarse grains output to about 1 288 million tonnes. The United States, the world's largest maize producer, would account for the bulk of the increase, as it is expected to harvest a record maize crop of 348 million tonnes, 27 per cent higher than the previous year's drought-reduced level. The FAO forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2014 has been revised downward by almost 2 per cent since September, to 559 million tonnes, still 12 per cent (62 million tonnes) above their opening level and the highest level since 2001/02. International trade in cereals in 2013/14 is forecast to reach 312.4 million tonnes, 1.6 per cent (4.8 million tonnes) higher than in 2012/13 and slightly above the level expected in September. Trade in 2013/14 is expected to benefit from larger export availabilities of coarse grains in particular. Food insecurity hotspots The Crop Prospects and Food Situation report highlights the following food insecurity hotspots, among others: In Syria, due to conflict about 4 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. In the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, an estimated 2.8 million vulnerable people require food assistance until the next harvest in October. Despite an improved food supply situation this year in the Sahel, a large number of people are still affected by conflict and the lingering effects of the 2011/12 food crisis, notably in northern Mali. In Central Africa, the food security situation continues to deteriorate in the Central African Republic (CAR) and in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) due to protracted civil insecurity. Nearly 6.35 million people in DRC (18 per cent up on last year) and 1.3 million people in CAR (more than double from February 2013) are in need of humanitarian assistance. In Southern Africa, drought conditions in western parts resulted in a decline in cereal production and in higher prices in 2013, causing a rise in the number of food insecure, particularly in Namibia. In Zimbabwe, maize production in 2013 declined by about 18 per cent from last year's below average level. The number of food insecure is projected to rise to 2.2 million people between January and March 2014, significantly above the 1.67 million in the first quarter of 2013. In Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan about 870 000, 1.2 million and 4.3 million people respectively are in need of humanitarian assistance due to conflict, natural disasters and other causes.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #260 on: October 22, 2013, 04:12:46 AM »

Mexican Judge Puts Temporary Halt on GM Maize Tests
21 October 2013


ANALYSIS - A Mexican judge took a precautionary measure and ordered the government to stop giving permits to transnational companies for planting genetically modified (GMO) corn at an experimental and commercial scale, writes Chris Wright, Senior Editor.

Opponents of genetically modified organisms (GMO) widely hail this decision, but those in favor of GMOs say the case is definitely not closed.

All of this against the legal reality that Mexico banned the planting of GMOs back in 1998. However, that law was modified in 2005 to allow the planting of test plots, by permit only and within some very strict rules, in some of the states of Mexico, primarily those along the US border.

It is these permits that the judge ruled against. Companies like Monsanto, Pioneer, Syngenta and Dow AgroSciences are the companies specifically involved in requesting the permits to plant pilot plots. Those same companies are confident that when all is said and done, the planting of GMO corn will be allowed.

There are close to 70 native types of corn in Mexico, and there is a worry that the native corn could become contaminated if GMO corn is planted. Add to that, corn is the main food staple in Mexico, particularly in the central and southern parts of the country. Plus, in a cultural sense, corn has an almost religious significance in Mexico.

In July of this year, a coalition of over 50 groups and individuals filed suit to block field trials of GMO corn in Mexico. The plaintiffs say they have scientific evidence from studies that document the contamination of Mexico’s native corn varieties by GMO corn.

The ban was granted by a judge for the Federal District Court for Civil Matters on October 10. The judge cited the risk of imminent harm to the environment as the basis for the decision. He also ruled that multinationals like Monsanto and Pioneer are banned from planting any transgenic corn in Mexico as long as lawsuits are working their way through the judicial system.

That means that case is not over, and this is not the final and definitive ruling on GMO corn in Mexico. But it does stop any further action until the final verdict is decided.

The Mexican Secretary of the Economy, Ildefonso Guajardo, argues that GMO products, like corn, should be planted in Mexico. Secretary Guajardo told an audience at the Bio Conference in Monterey, “Mexico imports many foodstuffs that use GMO corn, but we still won’t allow Mexican farmers to plant GMO corn.”

“The result,” he said, “is more poverty for the farmers since we restrict them to using low productivity technology. We have to allow the use of these transgenic products and we have to do it soon, for the good of Mexico.”

Agrobio, the group representing the transnational GMO companies working in Mexico, said that it would respect the judge’s decision. However, they will continue to try and scientifically prove the benefits of biotechnology. There are four years-worth of testing that document the benefits for farmers as well as to the environment.

Corn produced in Mexico, white corn, is only used to feed people, not animals. Therefore the Mexican poultry and livestock sectors use sorghum, plus imported yellow corn and soybeans from the US.

According to the US Grains Council web site, Mexico is the second largest importer of US corn behind Japan. There is no indication that this will change anytime soon.

The ban in Mexico does not affect imports of US GMO corn, it only bans the testing and use of that corn in Mexican fields.

At this point, it is hard to tell how the case, and the debate surrounding it, will finally be decided. Particularly since the government wants the approval of GMO corn. For now, the ban stands until further notice.



Chris Wright, Senior Editor



Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #261 on: October 22, 2013, 04:23:19 AM »
Indonesian Investors Mull Expansion of Oil Palm Plantation in Philippines18 October 2013 PHILIPPINES - Seven members of the Indonesian investment team from two Indonesian government owned and controlled companies named PT Perkebunan Nusantara (PTPN) and Pertamina paid a visit to the Philippines for an investment mission particularly to expand Indonesia’s oil palm industry, utilizing idle lands in the hinterlands in order that they become productive.According to PTPN Director for Planning and Development Memed Wiraminardja, the team has four purposes in coming to the province and these are "to get information and discuss with Philippines’ interested party and procedure of land acquisition for oil palm plantation; looking for prospective creation of the plantation, transport and communications, infrastructure, extension plantation, shape of the region, climate, etc.; knowing the administrative data such as administration demographic data, availability of labor, level of education of the population, public facilities, social amenities, religion and culture and; the peace and order situation, economic situation and the like." According to Alma Argayoso, Philippine Attache to Jakata, Indonesia, this move of the Indonesian government is one of the products of President Benigno S. Aquino’s attendance to APEC summit when he offered the potential investment areas of the country in order to bring in investment for agriculture and tourism which mean benefit for people living in far flung areas. “For all you know, Caraga Region is a very potential area of plantation all over the country having 384,000 hectares of land to offer. These two companies therefore is planning to acquire 30,000 hectares next year and 30,000 hectares thereafter for another 10 years. To date, Agusan del Sur has only 20,000 planted with oil palm,” Argayoso said. Vice Governor Santiago Cane who welcomed the Indonesian team also expressed his delight of the investment plan, saying investment is the spark plug of development in the province. “In fact, we in Agusan del Sur have legislated an Investment Code where I authored way back in 1998 during my first term as member of the Sangguniang Panlalawigan. We have done this because we are protective of the investments here in Agusan del Sur while protecting our environment. We are doing this in order to fully observe and implement the laws in order to maintain ecological balance and to align it to investment,” Vice Gov. Cane said. The Indonesian investment team will be staying here until October 18 in order to actually visit the areas with the assistance of the local government officials.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #262 on: November 13, 2013, 10:11:38 AM »

FAO Forecasts More Balanced Food Markets, Less Price Volatility
12 November 2013

GLOBAL - Food commodity markets are becoming more balanced and less price volatile than in recent years thanks to improved supplies and a recovery in global inventories of cereals, according to FAO's Food Outlook report.

"The prices for most basic food commodities have declined over the past few months. This relates to production increases and the expectation that in the current season, we will have more abundant supplies, more export availabilities and higher stocks," said David Hallam, Director of FAO's Trade and Markets Division.

According to FAO, the sharp increase in 2013 cereal production mostly stems from a recovery of maize crops in the United States and record wheat harvests in CIS countries. World rice production in 2013 is expected to grow only modestly.

Cereal stocks

Global stocks, ending in 2014, are also anticipated to increase, by 13 per cent, to 564 million tonnes, with coarse grains alone up by 30 per cent, mostly in the United States. Wheat and rice stocks are also projected to rise, by seven per cent and three per cent, respectively.

The expansion in world cereal stocks would result in the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio reaching 23 per cent, well above the historical low of 18.4 per cent in 2007/08.

In 2013, the world food import bill is set to decline by three per cent to $1.15 trillion, with import costs of cereals, sugar, vegetable oils and tropical beverages falling but dairy, meat and fish remaining firm, according to FAO's latest Food Outlook.

Food prices rise slightly

The FAO Food Price Index, also published in this report, rose slightly in October, averaging 205.8 points. This was 2.7 points, or 1.3 per cent above September but still 11 points, or 5.3 per cent below its October 2012 value. The slight increase was largely driven by a surge in sugar prices, although prices of the other commodity groups were also up.

The Index, which is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of five major food commodity groups (including 73 price quotations), has undergone some changes in the way it is calculated, although the new approach did not significantly alter the values in the series. The revised Index has also been extended back to 1961. The revisions are discussed in the Special Feature section of Food Outlook.

Forecasts for other commodities include:

Cassava - World cassava output is expected to increase for the fifth consecutive year and to reach 256 million tonnes in 2013. The expansion is being fueled by rising demand for food in the African continent and increasing industrial applications of cassava in East and Southeast Asia, especially for ethanol and starch.

Sugar - World sugar production is forecast to increase only slightly in 2013/14. The rise is likely to be limited in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer and exporter, where unfavourable weather conditions have hampered harvesting operations. World sugar consumption is set to grow by about two per cent in 2013/14.

Oilseeds - World oilcrop production could climb to an all-time high in 2013/14, supported by record soybean crops in South America. Global output of oilseed products should match world utilization for the second consecutive year, although a sizeable surplus is possible in the case of meals/cakes.

Meat - World meat production is anticipated to grow by 1.4 per cent in 2013. Prices have remained at historically high levels since the beginning of 2011. There is no sign of overall price decreases, despite reduced feed costs.

Dairy - World milk production in 2013 is forecast to grow by 1.9 per cent. Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to account for most of the increase, with only limited growth elsewhere. International dairy products prices have declined from their April peak, but still remain at historically high levels.

Fisheries - Aquaculture continues to boost overall fish supply, pushing quotations down from earlier levels. Fish consumption per capita keeps growing, with aquaculture in the process of overtaking capture fisheries as the main source of supply for direct human consumption.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #263 on: November 17, 2013, 01:22:27 AM »
14 November 2013
Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 14 November 2013Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 14 November 2013


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues
•Upper and lower layer soil moisture levels across much of eastern Australia declined during October 2013 resulting from below average rainfall and well above average temperatures.


•Scattered showers and storms brought rainfall up to 50 mm to parts of inland Queensland during the past week.


•Heavy rainfall was recorded across southeast Australia during the past week.


•Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin have decreased by 184 gigalitres this week and remains at 81 per cent of total capacity.


•The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$316 a tonne in the week ending 12 November 2013, compared with US$326 a tonne in the previous week.


•The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$200 a tonne for the week ending 13 November 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.


•The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) fell by around 6 per cent in the week ending 8 November 2013 to 307 cents a kilogram. Young cattle prices in New South Wales and Victoria rose by 5 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, to 327 cents and 346 cents a kilogram.


•Saleyard prices of lambs rose in most states in the week ending 8 November 2013. The largest increase occurred in New South Wales where the indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) rose by around 6 per cent to average 414 cents a kilogram. In South Australia and Victoria, the indicator price rose by around 2 per cent and 1 per cent to average 411 cents and 385 cents a kilogram, respectively. In contrast, the indicator price fell by 1 per cent in Western Australia to 343 cents a kilogram.

Climate

Notable events
•Upper and lower layer soil moisture levels across much of the Queensland and New South Wales cropping zones declined during October 2013 in response to below average rainfall and well above average temperatures.


•Scattered showers and storms brought rainfall up to 50 mm to parts of inland Queensland during the past week, which may assist in alleviating rainfall deficiencies in some areas. For many areas, this was the first significant rainfall since July or earlier. Further rainfall is forecast across much of south-eastern and northern Queensland over the coming week.


•The rainfall across parts of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales may initiate additional sorghum plantings, as many producers have reportedly been delaying sowing until significant rainfall was received. While the recent falls may assist in the planting of crops, yield prospects will be heavily reliant on further rainfall throughout the summer growing season due to the low levels of moisture in the soil profile.


•Heavy rainfall was recorded across southeast Australia during the past week. There are reports that the rain has caused some early maturing cherries varieties to develop cracked skins, however the remaining crop and other late season varieties will benefit from the additional moisture. The rainfall is likely to promote pasture growth across the region, providing additional paddock feed in the lead up to summer.

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 13 November 2013, rainfall was recorded along the coasts of South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales, across Tasmania, and in the north-east of the Northern Territory and in the Kimberley, Western Australia. There was also a series of storms bringing falls to parts of inland Queensland. The highest recorded rainfall total for the week was 179 millimetres at Batemans Bay in New South Wales. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.


Rainfall for the week ending 13 November 2013
 
©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australian Bureau of Meteorology           Issued: 13/11/2013

Commodities

Production and commodities
•The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$316 a tonne in the week ending 12 November 2013, compared with US$326 a tonne in the previous week.


•The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$200 a tonne for the week ending 13 November 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.


•The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$513 a tonne in the week ending 12 November 2013, compared with US$514 a tonne in the previous week.


•The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US84.9 cents a pound in the week ending 13 November 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.


•The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US18 cents a pound in the week ending 13 November 2013, compared with US18.3 cents a pound in the previous week.


•Data from United States Department of Agriculture indicates that as at 12 November 2013, 56 per cent of the US 2013-14 cotton crop had been harvested, 17 per cent lower than at the same time in 2012.


•The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $498 a tonne in the week ending 11 November 2013, compared with $496 a tonne in the previous week.


•The wholesale prices of selected fruit were largely unchanged in the week ending 9 November 2013.


•Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 9 November 2013. The wholesale prices of iceberg lettuce and potato (white washed) were higher than the previous week while the prices of cauliflower, bean (round stringless) and broccoli were lower.


•The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) fell by around 6 per cent in the week ending 8 November 2013 to 307 cents a kilogram. Young cattle prices in New South Wales and Victoria rose by 5 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, to 327 cents and 346 cents a kilogram.


•Saleyard prices of lambs rose in most states in the week ending 8 November 2013. The largest increase occurred in New South Wales where the indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) rose by around 6 per cent to average 414 cents a kilogram. In South Australia and Victoria, the indicator price rose by around 2 per cent and 1 per cent to average 411 cents and 385 cents a kilogram, respectively. In contrast, the indicator price fell by 1 per cent in Western Australia to 343 cents a kilogram.


•The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool was largely unchanged in the week ending 7 November 2013, averaging 1098 cents a kilogram clean. The total number of bales offered at auction was around 4 per cent lower, compared with the previous sale.

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #264 on: November 20, 2013, 09:49:07 AM »
USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed Reports » Philippines » USDA GAIN: Philippine Grain and Feed Update 05 November 2013USDA GAIN: Philippine Grain and Feed UpdateThe Philippine flour milling industry has filed an anti-dumping duty petition on Turkish flour, which now comprises 82 percent of wheat flour imports and currently sells for around P600 ($13.65) per 25 kilogram bag compared to the P740 ($16.80) per kilogram bag of comparable “soft” flour sold by local flour millers. According to trade associations, this is the result of a Turkish government subsidy that allows their flour exporters to sell at a much lower price than the Turkish domestic price. Industry reports that U.S. wheat sales to the Philippines in early MY 13/14 (June 1 to Sep. 19, 2013) are down 24 percent due to strong competition from Canadian wheat. Despite a downward adjustment to corn production as a result of two major weather-related events in September 2013 (typhoon Utor and tropical storm Trami), Post forecasts corn output in MY 13/14 will still surpass MY 12/13 levels by roughly 90,000 MT and reach 7.35 million MT due to increased use of improved seeds, better yields and a slight expansion in area harvested. Despite Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) and industry reports of expanding production, rice prices have been increasing in MY 13/14. According to local press reports, milled rice prices in some retail outlets have increased to P35-37 ($0.80-0.84) per kilo in early September from P32-34 ($0.73-77) per kilo in July. Post: Manila Commodities: WheatCornRice, Milled Author Defined: Wheat According to industry estimates, wheat flour has grown from comprising four percent of milling wheat imports in MY 10/11 to its current ten percent market share. Industry reports that this rapid uptick is the result of increased use of Turkish flour which now comprises 82 percent of wheat flour imports and currently sells for around P600 ($13.65) per 25 kilogram bag compared to the P740 ($16.80) per kilogram bag of comparable “soft” flour sold by local flour millers. According to trade associations, this is the result of a Turkish government subsidy that allows their flour exporters to sell at a much lower price than the Turkish domestic price. In response, the Philippine flour milling industry filed an anti-dumping duty petition in June 2013, which calls for the government to increase Turkish flour import duties from 7 to 20 percent. After completing an investigation with stakeholders and affected groups, the DA will recommend whether or not to raise Turkish flour duties to the Philippine Tariff Commission. Local baking associations have expressed their opposition to the anti-dumping petition. According to the trade, U.S. wheat sales to the Philippines in early MY 13/14 (June 1 to Sep. 19, 2013) are down 24 percent (compared to the same time last year) due to strong competition from Canadian wheat. Overall wheat imports in MY 13/14 are likely to remain at MY 12/13 levels (which have been adjusted to 3.58 million MT to reflect the most recent GTA data) as adequate stocks and an expected modest reduction in feed wheat demand offset a slight expansion in milling wheat use. Feed wheat (from Black Sea sources) is currently sold locally at P13.50-14.00 ($0.31-0.32) per kilo, according to industry contacts, which is marginally cheaper than the prevailing corn price of P14.00-14.50 ($0.32-0.33) per kilo. However, as contacts from the DA and industry expect a strong harvest in the later part of 2013, Post anticipates corn will shortly once again become the preferred feed grain for domestic end users. Corn Despite a downward adjustment to corn production as a result of two major weather-related events in September 2013 (typhoon Utor and tropical storm Trami), Post forecasts corn output in MY 13/14 will still surpass MY 12/13 levels by roughly 90,000 MT and reach 7.35 million MT. According to DA and industry contacts, better-than-expected production is likely in the 3rd and 4th quarters due to the continued increase in use of improved seeds, a slight expansion in area harvested and better yields.i78 A downward adjustment was made to MY 12/13 imports to reflect the most recent GTA data. Post also applied a downward adjustment to MY 13/14 imports as a result of the anticipated strong production. Rice The negative impact of Utor and Trami on rice production has been minimal (12,461 MT in 27 hectares, according to the DA) and the MY 13/14 production forecast remains unchanged at up two percent (compared to the previous year) to 18.57 million MT. Despite DA and industry reports of expanding production, rice prices have been increasing in MY 13/14. According to local press reports, milled rice prices in some retail outlets have increased to P35-37 ($0.80-0.84) per kilo in early September from P32-34 ($0.73-77) per kilo in July. As increased rice prices are likely to result in reduced demand, consumption is expected to slightly diminish in MY13/14 (compared to the previous year). MY12/13 imports in the PSD include an estimated 400,000 tons of undocumented imports. Imports in MY13/14 are likely to decline from the previous year’s level due to improved local production. November 2013

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #265 on: December 01, 2013, 04:53:51 AM »
Good Quality Domestic Grain Harvest in 2013 for Finland29 November 2013 FINLAND - The oats harvest in 2013 was the biggest in a decade, but shrivelled grains and mycotoxins impaired its quality. The total yield of winter grains remained low, due to the wet conditions in the previous autumn taxing the areas sown. The hectolitre weight of barley was good. The preliminary data from the Finnish Food Safety Authority Evira and Tike (Information Centre of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry) indicate that the quality of the domestic harvest for bread and feed grains in 2013 was good. The wheat harvest in 2013 was similar in volume to the year before, but better in quality. Of the autumn’s 888-million-kilo wheat crop, 506 million kilos were at least 78 kilos in hectolitre weight, with a falling number of at least 180 and minimum protein content of 12.5 per cent. Of the crop, 844 million kilograms was spring wheat and only 44 million kilos winter wheat. The average falling number of spring-sown wheat remained high (339) thanks to good threshing weather conditions. The average protein content was 13.0 per cent. However, one-third of the samples failed to reach the target protein content of 12.5 per cent. The quality of the spring wheat crop was lower than average in Uusimaa and South-East Finland. The regional differences are partly explained by the choice of variety. The quality of the variety ‘Kruunu’ was the lowest this year. The total yields of winter grains were low, due to the sown areas remaining small because of the wet conditions in the autumn 2012 and in addition the winter losses suffered by the grain crops. The 27-million-kilo rye harvest was the lowest in more than a decade. The rye quality monitoring parameters are a hectolitre weight of 71 kilos and falling number of 120, which were fulfilled by 71 per cent of the rye crop. The average falling number of rye was 162, which is lower than in three previous years.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #266 on: December 12, 2013, 12:53:30 PM »

Grains Turn Weaker in Aftermath of USDA Supply, Demand Report
10 December 2013

Jim Wyckoff


ANALYSIS - Corn futures moved lower at midday Tuesday, after seeing a slight bounce following a mildly bullish USDA supply and demand report for December.

The Ag Department lowered 2013-14 corn carryover stocks to 1.792 billion bushels. Pre-report trade expectations were for a 1.861 billion-bushel figure. However, the latest number is still a large increase over the 2012-13 carryover of 824 million bushels.

Soybean futures were trading near unchanged after the USDA data that showed the government lowering its 2013-14 soybean carryover to 150 million bushels, which was a bit lower than the pre-report estimates.

Wheat futures sold off and hit new contract lows on news USDA increased total world wheat stocks more than the trade expected. USDA pegged total world wheat stocks at 182.78 million metric tons, which is higher than pre-report expectations of 178.8 million metric tons. USDA forecast the
2013-14 U.S. wheat carryover at 575 million bushels, which is also significantly higher than pre-report expectations.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #267 on: December 24, 2013, 07:09:36 AM »
By 2050, Crops will Feed More Animals Than Humans19 December 2013 If the global population continues to grow at its current rate, and diets continue to include more animal products, by 2050 we will be growing more crops to feed animals than to directly feed ourselves, according to researchers in Germany.According to EnvironmentalResearchWeb, the scientists, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the University of Potsdam, also fear that the demand for animal feed will be so great that some regions will not be able to meet it. Prajal Pradhan and his colleagues investigated the spatial distribution of embodied crop calories in animal products and found that, on a global scale, about 40 per cent of the global crop calories are used as livestock feed. This proportion is set to rise to 48–55 per cent by 2050. They also calculated that, on average, about 4 kcal of crop products are used to generate 1 kcal of animal products. "In some regions the embodied crop calories can be as high as 10 kcal of crops used to generate 1 kcal of animal products," Pradhan told environmentalresearchweb. "This shows how inefficient the process of producing animal products can be, and I hope that our research will make people more aware of the environmental consequences of eating so many animal products." The team estimated the future feed demand considering three scenarios: assuming diets would remain as they were in the year 2000 but population growth remains on its current trajectory; dietary changes as projected by earlier work, with the same population growth considerations; and changes in population, dietary patterns and feed conversion efficiency. The researchers project that, when considering dietary changes, global feed demand will be almost doubled (increasing 1.8–2.3 times) by 2050 compared to 2000. This would force us to produce almost the same amount of, or even more, crops to raise our livestock than to nourish ourselves directly in the future. "This is the first time that information on crop and animal products has been aggregated in a single comparable calorific unit," said Pradhan. "We felt this approach was important because human dietary requirements are generally measured in calorific values." Using this approach, the work has highlighted that the current trend of an increasing share of animal products in our diet will have major consequences in the future, resulting in the need to grow more crops for animal feed than for direct human consumption. "Some countries are already in the situation where they cannot produce enough crops to feed their animals and have to import feed," said Pradhan. "But in other countries, embodied calories in animal products are low because cattle simply graze on grass and do not consume any feed." For example, the researchers predict that regions in Africa (apart from South Africa), South-East Asia and West Asia will not be able to meet their feed demand by 2050 without increasing their present crop production. "Our research does not present answers to a potential future feed crisis, but it does show where there is room for alleviation," said Pradhan. "Some countries can adopt different kinds of livestock rearing systems to help avert a crisis, but one of the biggest factors in this trend is clearly the shift in dietary composition. Perhaps it is time to reverse the current trend and shift diets to include a smaller share of animal products?" December 2013

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #268 on: January 12, 2014, 02:47:30 AM »

Corn Rallies Sharply, Soybeans Up, Wheat Sinks Following USDA Reports
10 January 2014

Jim Wyckoff Commentary


ANALYSIS - Corn futures rallied strongly after smaller-than-expected grain stocks and production figures, and a record first-quarter usage pace, writes Jim Wyckoff for ThePigSite.

Corn stocks in the U.S. as of December 1 stood at 10.426 billion bushels, compared to 10.77 billion bushels expected by the trade. USDA pegged U.S. corn production at 13.925 billion bushels, while the trade expected a 14.053 billion-bushel figure.

USDA now puts the national average U.S. corn yield at 158.8 bushels per acre, down from 160.1 bushels per acre in the November report.

The 2013-14 U.S. corn carryover is seen by USDA at 1.631 billion bushels - down from the December estimate of 1.792 billion bushels. The 2013-14 global corn carryover is seen by USDA at 160.23 million metric tons (MMT), which is down from December's estimate of 162.46 MMT. Importantly, Friday's price action in corn futures does strongly hint that a major market low is now in place.

Soybean futures were posting modest gains in the aftermath of Friday's data from the U.S. Agriculture Department. U.S. soybean stocks as of December 1 stood at 2.148 billion bushels, compared to trade expectations of 2.17 billion bushels.

U.S. soybean production was pegged at 3.289 billion bushels, up slightly from trade expectations of 3.270 billion bushels. USDA now puts the national average bean yield at 43.3 bushels per acre, up from 43 bushels per acre in the November report.

The 2013-2014 soybean carryover is seen by USDA at 150 million bushels, which is unchanged from the December projection. The 2013-2014 global soybean carryover is 72.33 MMT, which is up from the December USDA estimate of 70.62 MMT.

Wheat futures prices were solidly lower and set new contract lows following a bearish USDA report. All U.S. wheat stocks were 1.463 billion bushels on December 1, while the trade expected 1.41 billion bushels. Implied use in the second quarter of the 2013-14 marketing year is 407 million bushels, down 6 percent from the same period last year.

All winter wheat seedings in the U.S. were reported to be 41.892 million acres. The trade expected 43.7 million acres, and compares to 43.09 million acres in 2013. The 2013-2014 wheat carryover is seen at 608 million bushels, up from the December estimate of 575 million bushels.

The global 2013-2014 global wheat carryover is 185.4 MMT, up from the December estimate of 182.78 MMT.

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Re: Corn & Seed/Oil Commodities
« Reply #269 on: March 12, 2014, 08:38:47 AM »
Market Commentary - March 11, 2014

Wheat


Wheat futures closed more than 14 cents higher in the May14 contracts for all three major classes.  The Mar 14 CBOT contract led the way higher and settled at $6.63 (highest close since early December).  Dry weather forecasts for the next two weeks in the South Plains, which may threaten crop quality, provided a positive influence.  Yesterday USDA left wheat ending stocks UNCH at 558 MB despite trade ideas of an increase to 570 million. World wheat stocks were 183.81 MMT, up slightly from the Feb figure of 183.73 MMT.   

 


Mar 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.63 1/4, up 18 1/4 cents,
 

Mar 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.22, up 17 1/4 cents,
 

Mar 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.51, up 5 cents
 
 

 


Soybeans


Soybean futures closed 7 cents lower to 13 cents higher.  Old crop prices lost, and new crop prices gained.  The Nov 14 contract displayed the most strength and was up 13 cents.  The Mar 14 contract traded as high as $14.30 but closed on the lows at $14.11.  The Mar 14 meal contract finished just south of unchanged at $452.30.  USDA estimated 2013/14 world ending stocks figure at 70.46 MMT, which was lower than the average trade guess of 71.46 MMT and also lower than the Feb figure of 73.01 MMT. 

 


Mar 14 Soybeans closed at $14.11 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents,
 

May 14 Soybeans closed at $14.13, down 5 3/4 cents,
 

Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $13.91 1/4, down 3 cents,
 

Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $13.50 3/4, up 5 cents,
 

Mar 14 Soybean Meal closed at $452.30, down $0.40,
 

Mar 14 Soybean Oil closed at $43.51, down $0.13
 
 

 


Cotton


Cotton futures settled 38 points lower to 11 points higher on the day.  The May 14 contract posted its highest close since August 19 at 91.65.  Outside markets helped limit any major upside with the S&P 500 closing down 0.51% at 1867.63.  Crude Oil was also sharply lower and finished down $1.38% at $99.72.    China cotton futures on the Zhengzhou exchange for May delivery were up 0.19%.  ICE Certified stocks were reported 259,742 RB, with 161 new certs, 0 decerts and  0 bales awaiting review.   The Cotlook A Index was up 0.05 at 97.35.

 


May 14 Cotton closed at 91.65, up 9 points,
 

Jul 14 Cotton closed at 90.08, down 38 points
 

Oct 14 Cotton closed at 81.98, up 11 points
 
 

 


Cattle


Cattle futures settled $0.22 higher to $0.32 lower. Feeders settled $0.15 lower to $0.15 higher.   Boxed beef prices were higher with choice cuts up $2.57 and select cuts up $1.72.   Choice/Select spread is at $3.76.  Cash cattle market is quiet with some light trading reported at $144, and $236 for the dressed.  The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 0.22 at $173.56.  Week to date estimated slaughter is 219,000 head, which is 18,000 head less than the same period a year ago.

 


Apr 14 Cattle closed at $143.225 up $0.225,
 

Jun 14 Cattle closed at $136.100, down $0.150,
 

Aug 14 Cattle closed at $134.025, down $0.325,
 

Mar 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $173.920, up $0.150
 

Apr 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $175.575, unch,
 

May 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $176.250, down $0.150
 
 

 


Lean Hogs


Lean Hogs settled $0.25 to $1.50 higher.  The April 14 contract scored a new high for the move of $118.57 at one point in the session but backed off a bit to settle at $117.10.  June14 hogs also posted a new high closing price.  The pork carcass cutout was up 2.59 at $117.53.  Cash hog prices from the ECB have not been reported, while values from the WCB were up $2.48.  IA/MN marketing areas were up $2.22.   The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.10 at $104.73.  Week to date estimated slaughter is 821,000 head which is 14,000 head less than the same period a year ago.

 


Apr 14 Hogs closed at $117.100, up $1.150,
 

May 14 Hogs closed at $121.300, up $0.250
 

Jun 14 Hogs closed at $125.000, up $1.500
 
 

 


Corn


Corn futures closed 4 to 6 cents higher on the day.  The May 14 contract traded as low as $4.73 but found support and settled at $4.83. A sharply higher wheat trade due to continued unrest in Ukraine provided a positive influence. The trade will be watching for updated CONAB figures out of Brazil due out tomorrow.  Yesterday morning USDA pegged 2013/14 world ending stocks figure at 158.50, which was higher than the average trade estimate of 156.27 MMT, and also higher than the Feb figure of 157.30 MMT.  Yet the US ending stocks estimate came in lower than the average trade estimate.

 


Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.78, up 6 cents,
 

May 14 Corn closed at $4.83 1/4, up 5 cents,
 

Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.87, up 4 3/4 cents
 
 

 

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