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Mustang Sally Farm
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« Reply #390 on: May 11, 2012, 07:46:30 AM »

Tuesday, May 08, 2012Print This Page
Pork Commentary: N American Market Languishes
US & CANADA - "There’s not much good news in the North American Swine Market, usually by this time of the year hog prices start to move rapidly higher – this year not yet!" writes Jim Long.


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
The US National Daily 53 – 54 per cent lean hogs were under 80 cents per pound at the end of last week. Since the first of the year as the table below from Iowa State University it’s been a mugs game being a hog producer. This chart only goes to the end of March but since then nothing has happened in hog prices or costs to make it look any better.

Summary of Iowa Swine Budget
(US$/pig, Farrow to Finish, 270 lb pig, live wt)
  JAN FEB MAR AVG
Value of Market HOG $172.12 $177.20 $175.19 $174.84
Feed Cost $115.46 $115.40 $115.55 $115.47
Other variable Costs $44.44 $44.63 $44.69 $44.59
Fixed Costs $14.23 $14.23 $14.23 $14.23
Total Costs $174.13 $174.26 $174.47 $174.29
Net Return -$2.02 $2.96 $0.72 $0.55

Bottom Line: Trading dollars is no fun. We sense over the last few weeks what optimism there was in the hog market has waned. We expect that the enthusiasm that some had to build new sow units will be quite tempered. The producers left in this industry are survivors of too many hog cycles. As one pork industry executive put it ‘The women and children are dead, only the warriors survive.’

The flip side to the lack of swine farm profitability has been the massive equity growth in farmland values. Our farmer arithmetic calculates the 305 million crop acres – USA in 2011 with an estimate of farmland appreciation of $1000 per acre = $305 billion in appreciation – cut it in half = $150 billion. Either number is a massive creation of paper wealth. Whether it will be ever realized in cash is not that relevant, the feeling of wealth, borrowing power, and balance sheet strength and the profits from high grain prices is backstopping many in current hog operations.

The farmland equity surge is contributing to contract finishing barns being built in the mid west. Paybacks are not as good as they used to be, but when coupled with the fertilizer value of manure it is enough to get several barns built.

Canada like the US is seeing similar farmland value increases. Farm Credit Canada (FCC) is the farm primary lender in Canada. FCC recently released a farm value report. Current values reported indicate that the positive trend continues. Farmland values increased an average of 7.4 per cent January to June of 2011. July to December values continued to rise by 6.9 per cent. This continues the 10 year trend of steadily increasing farm values.

This profitability of grain and oilseed production we have seen globally is reflected in the crop planting intentions in Canada.

Thousands of Acres
  2011 2012
All Wheat 21,464 24,324
Canola 18,862 20,372
Barley 6,472 7,968
Soybeans 3,830 3,969
Corn 3,009 3,562
Oats 3,109 3,393
Dry Field Peas 2,328 3,310
Lentils 2,570 2,460
Flaxseed 695 1,040
Total 62,339 70,398

The totals indicate about 7 million more acres of crop to be planted in Canada in 2012 than 2011. There is more wheat, canola, barley, soybeans, corn, oats, peas, and flaxseed – more, more, more.

Where are the acres coming from? In 2011 12,410 million acres were summer fallowed. Most do to extremely wet conditions that kept land from being planted. In 2012 summer fallowed acres are estimated to be 3.970 million. There is a 7 million acre difference in crop intentions. So far this year Canada’s plantings are ahead of most years. In most commodities more supply usually means lower prices. Lower grain prices would certainly help swine cost of production be lower.

Summary
It doesn’t take a Rocket Scientist (or an economist) to know the hog industry is trading dollars. Hog prices of 80 cent lean and corn over $6.00 does not equal profits. It appears that the crop plantings in the US and Canada are getting in fast and with more total acres going to be planted. There is a real possibility of much lower feed prices in the fall. Until then it’s hang on and hope for a seasonal hog rally. It’s not too late but it better get started soon!


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics 
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« Reply #391 on: May 31, 2012, 07:10:40 AM »


Pork Commentary: Return from China
30 May 2012


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.

CANADA - Last week in the commentary we wrote of the car accident we had in China. I am now truly happy to report our return home. As you read last week Mike Van Schepdael my business partner and vice president of Genesus received significant injuries. Fortunately he has had a rapid improvement and his recovery continues, writes Jim Long.

Ron Lane, senior consultant of Genesus in China was also in the accident. Ron was bruised and black and blue from the accident but despite this he was able to call on his over decade long experience in China to quickly facilitate an excellent Beijing hospital. Ron then in true Genesus spirit travelled the next day after the accident to work the Nanjing Swine Exhibition on behalf of Genesus. Ron was like his nickname “Old Dragon” invincible.
 
In the past week we also were exposed to the Chinese cultural perspective on surviving such an accident. “It’s a great omen… strong people, strong genetics, strong pig genetics, etc etc…” The above perspective was good to hear but we’d rather not go to such lengths to receive such accolades.
 
Once again I want to thank all of the people in China that helped us and offered aid to us. Monita Mo and her people at Best Genetics, James Jiang, Dr Shen and Gu Ya Ping of COFCO, Chairman Wu and the Tiabang Corporation, Giastar Corporation, Norio Itazaki, and Akira Motoyama of Nippon Ham, Wendell Burge of GSI based in Shanghai, Lyle Jones from Osborne Inc, Hu Song and Rosemary Smart of CSEA. The doctors and nurses at Peking Union College Hospital were hospitable, professional and knowledgeable. The take away for us is that as we travel the world we continue to meet wonderful people who have tremendous caring attributes. It is tough to be involved in a situation like we were in a faraway land but our challenge was made easier by the involvement and support of our customers, colleagues, and medical professionals. We will appreciate this forever.
 
Markets
 
This past week we have been distracted. The simple observations we can make is that the US corn market took a hit from what we understand was China delaying deliveries from summer to fall. Being in China we can see the quest to modernize pig and poultry production which as production increases will lead to greater needs for feed imputes. Indeed production projects are so big we hesitate to discuss because the scale is so large they could be perceived as fantasy. The need to feed 1.3 billion people in itself is a huge undertaking. When you are in meetings where companies plan on 20 – 2500 sow units this year, the scale and magnitude of a 600 million hog market hits home; short term the hog price in China reflects a pork shortage relative to demand in an economy with increasing per capita income.
 



Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics
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« Reply #392 on: June 13, 2012, 08:37:38 AM »


US Pork Producers Concerned About Canadian Pork Industry Subsidies
12 June 2012



Farm-Scape is sponsored by
Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork

FarmScape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council
 and Sask Pork.


US & CANADA - The president of the US based National Pork Producers Council says, despite concerns over subsidies offered to Canadian pork producers, relations among the US and Canadian pork industries remain positive, Bruce Cochrane writes.
Matters related to trade were discussed last week when representatives of Manitoba Pork Council and the National Pork Producers Council met during World Pork Expo in Des Moines.
 
NPPC president R.C. Hunt says producers in the United States have been concerned with provincial government subsidies that give a distinct advantage to producers in those areas and disadvantage US producers and the Canadian sow buy-out program which offered assistance to producers to vacate the industry.
 
R.C. Hunt-National Pork Producers Council
 
One of the things that probably concerned us in the US is the opportunity for recovery, that after a three year period of time, that someone could go back in and open and operate that facility.
 
We, right or wrong, looked at that particular program as a benefit subsidizing the Canadian producer.
 
If you asked us behind closed doors during that period of time, everybody was in negative margins and would I have liked to have something like that personally in my farm, absolutely yes.
 
But unfortunately the philosophy and position of the National Pork Producers is that we truly believe and we've been very consistent with this philosophy is that we just don't want government intervention.
 
We want everything based on the free market enterprise and we've been consistent with that philosophy for a long time.
 
Mr Hunt says, despite differing government philosophies on subsides, relations among pork producers on the two sides of the border remain strong.
 
He says there is agreement that the Canadian, US and even Mexican pork industries are part of the western hemisphere and they need to work together very aggressively because they'll be major suppliers of pork around the world.
 
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« Reply #393 on: June 21, 2012, 09:53:04 AM »


Pork Commentary: Cash Lean Hog Breaks $1.00!!
19 June 2012


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.

US - Last Friday US Iowa – Southern Minnesota lean hogs broke the magical $1.00 lean per pound price averaging $100.09 with highs to $1.03 per pound, writes Jim Long.

A huge surge in cash price of over $30.00 per head in two weeks, we predicted $1.00 would be reached this summer several months ago. We are happy. Producers need the positive cash flow that $1.00 lean hogs bring.
 
The naysayer chicken little ag economists who just a few weeks ago were predicting that lean hogs would barely crawl into the high 80s or low 90s a pound this summer missed the mark.
 
Why is it $1.00 lean?
 •Last week the US marketed 1.957 million hogs the seasonal low and 20,000 less than the same week a year ago. Fewer hogs always lead to stronger prices.
 

•US packers are financially strong, pressure to maintain market share, fill export orders, and have pork product for processing. Throw on top of this they don’t like each other. You and up with packers chasing hogs and doing it all for negative margins.
 

•The latest US Pork Export Data shows that April was up four percent in value over last year. Global pork demand is still strong, when weekly marketing of hogs drop below 400.000 head as they have from annual highs the only way you can ration pork supply is higher prices.
 

•Global hog markets remain strong with Spain the world’s fourth largest hog producer hitting price levels of an 8 year high; China hog prices 40 per cent higher than the US, and Russia hogs almost double US prices. High prices are a reflection of supply and demand. An indication of China demand is last week’s seizure of 1,800 metric tons of frozen meat by Chinese authorities as it way trying to be smuggled into Shenzhen China. Smugglers of pork – who would of thought? You don’t try to smuggle unless there’s a real reward and demand. Next will we have pork cartels?
 

•US hog supply could be being tempered by the PRRS breaks this winter. If PRRS was as significant as we and others believe the time is right for supply to be cut. Going forward if the antidotal stories we are hearing are correct that the PRRS vaccine from MJ Bio Logics is working as well as the reports, PRRS breaks going forward might not be as bad – time will tell!
 

•Hog to corn ratio has been under 15 to 1 for months and months. We don’t believe a ratio below 15 to 1 has ever lead to expansion. How could we expect significantly more hogs then? High feed prices are limiting global pork expansion.
 

•Competing US meat supply is down. Less US chicken – less US beef cuts total protein availability. Cut hog supply as we have the last couple of weeks and we have a rocketing hog price.
 
Summary
 
Surging lean hog prices to $1.00 lean. Less US hogs less chicken and less beef. Strong pork exports. Packers chasing hogs leading to hog producer cash flow getting a real boost. Producers need the upside.
 



Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics
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« Reply #394 on: July 03, 2012, 01:02:05 AM »


Study: Pork Exports Contribute C$9.28 Billion to Economy
29 June 2012


Farm-Scape is sponsored by
Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork

FarmScape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council
 and Sask Pork.


CANADA - A study conducted by the George Morris Centre has shown Canadian pork exports contribute over nine billion dollars annually to the Canadian economy, writes Bruce Cochrane.
The George Morris Centre has completed a study on behalf of the Canadian Pork Council which examined the value of Canadian pork exports.
 
Kevin Grier, a senior market analyst with the George Morris Centre, says the study found the economic development associated with exporting pork contributes about 9.28 billion dollars annually to Canada's economy.
 
Kevin Grier-George Morris Centre
 
As a starting point we looked at the fact that there were 3.2 billion dollars worth of exports in 2011 and again these are pork as opposed to live animals.
 
We looked solely at pork.

To start with that as a starting point we used data from Statistics Canada and Agriculture Canada and provincial marketings and so on about where those exports went, how much they were worth and what it all means back to producers and by looking at that in particular we found that the exports themselves probably increased producers' bottom lines by about anywhere from 20 to 30 dollars.
 
The other things that we showed when we looked at these 3.2 billion dollars worth of exports was that they create an awful lot of jobs.
 
In fact according to the Statistics Canada input-output multiplier those exports generated about 45 thousand jobs in Canada and they generated nearly two billion dollars worth of wages and salaries and they had a net economic contribution to Canada's GDP of about 3.5 billion dollars.
 
In other words, above and beyond the 3.2 billion dollars in export sales, that economic activity generated an additional value adding to the Canadian GDP of another 3.5 billion dollars.
 
Mr Grier notes the fact that exports account for 60 per cent of Canadian pork production suggests that, if Canada's pork industry is to grow and prosper, exports are going to play a big role in that future.
 
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« Reply #395 on: July 29, 2012, 12:18:34 AM »

Pig Welfare Featured Articles


Loading Facilities for Market Hogs: Saskatchewan's Top 10
Thursday, July 19, 2012




A study by Jennifer Brown, T. Stevens and Harold W. Gonyou shows that farms with high prod use actually had the longest loading time. Their paper is published in the 2011 Annual Report from the Prairie Swine Centre.
 


Harold Gonyou

 

Jennifer Brown
 
Summary
 
For many producers, loading pigs at marketing can be both stressful and time-consuming. Problems at loading also affect the welfare of animals, and can have a significant economic impact due to carcass damage, meat quality problems or increased death losses.
 
The objective of this project was to identify components of swine loading facilities and handling at loading that have the greatest value for reducing pig stress and loading time.
 
A total of 10 load-out facilities in Saskatchewan were visited in this study, and the facility design and handling methods at each was documented using photographs and video footage. Observations were compared against recommended practice to identify design features and practices that promote good handling in pigs. Suggestions to improve handling at loading include aspects of ramp design and lighting, as well as simple changes to management and handling technique.
 
Introduction
 
Loading pigs for transport to market can be stressful for pigs and their handlers. Poorly designed loading facilities increase the incidence of prod use and rough handling, and result in longer loading times. Stress associated with loading can increase the incidence of downer pigs and death losses, as well as having adverse effects on carcass and meat quality. Methods for reducing stress at loading have been identified, however few producers have adopted these changes as construction costs are high and the benefits are uncertain.
 



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*
 "Farms with high prod use actually had the longest loading time."






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



This project documented loading facilities and handling methods in barns recognized for having good load-outs. The results provide clear suggestions for changes to facilities and management at loading, and will hopefully encourage the construction of better load-outs and adoption of practices at loading that can benefit pigs and producers.
 
The overall objective of the project was to document superior loading facilities and practices currently in used in the province of Saskatchewan. Specific objectives included; 1) the identification of 10 loading facilities that promote ease and speed of handling in market hogs; 2) evaluation of the design and management characteristics associated with each facility; and 3) preparation of a summary and educational materials for producers to aid them in improving the design and use of loading facilities.
 
Experimental Procedures
 
Saskatchewan farms with good loading facilities were identified based on information supplied by pork producers and truckers.
 



Figure 1. Covered hydraulic loading ramp with manway (looking down ramp from truck entry)
 
Once a farm was identified, the producer was contacted regarding participation in the study. Participating farms were selected from locations across the province in order to document a wide variety of load-out designs. Participating farms included corporations such as Fast Genetics and Big Sky Farms, as well as individual producers across the province. Each farm visit included a brief questionnaire on basic housing and management practices, measurements of the loading facility, and observation of the handling techniques used to move pigs at loading.
 
Load-out measurements included the width, length, and height of pens, alleys and doorways. Light intensity was measured in lux using a light metre placed at pig height at various locations throughout the load-out. Ramp angle was measured using a framing square and level, and calculating the inverse tangent of the rise over run. Any corners, flooring changes, or obstacles were documented using a digital camera.
 
Handling of pigs during loading was also recorded. For each farm visit, a video camera was either mounted in the load-out or hand operated by the producer to record handling techniques at loading. For each site, either live observations or video footage of pigs at loading were reviewed in order to assess handling technique and pig flow. Handling techniques used on farm were also evaluated on the basis of appropriate/inappropriate use of tools, handler vocalizations, handler body position, attitude, and factors affecting the flow of animals.
 
The results of this study were descriptive observations. By examining superior facilities and handling methods, and comparing them with codes of practice and recommended practice, we identified design and handling practices that were effective at reducing stress in pigs during loading.
 
Results and Discussion
 
The ten farms studied included six farrow-to-finish operations, three finishing barns and one farrow-to-wean operation. On eight farms, the pigs were housed in small to medium groups (12 to 50 pigs per pen), and on the two remaining farms, pigs were housed in large groups of 600 to 700 animals. Hogs marketed per week ranged from 160 to 1100 animals, with an average of 500 hogs shipped per week. Loading time needed to fill a standard potbelly trailer (approximately 230 pigs) ranged from 30 to 90 minutes (45 minutes on average). Key facility and handling measures at each load-out were compared against recommended practice.
 
Load-out design
 


Figure 2. Well lit load-out with concrete steps (30-cm treads). Although this load-out involves some corners, the transitions are smooth and well-lit and the alley is wide enough for multiple pigs to pass

 

Figure 3. External loading ramp allows trucker to assist without entering barn. Note also the ramp extension (on the left) used to reduce the angle of internal truck ramp to the top deck
 
Recommended practice indicates that ramp angles should be less than 20°, that ramps should be fitted with cleats and have a non-slip surface. The ramps observed on all farms met these specifications, with ramp angles ranging from 0 to 11°. Figures 1 to 3 show examples of the ramps observed. The ramp designs varied considerably but all worked well. One farm had a covered adjustable hydraulic ramp with an attached man way, which was very efficient for moving groups onto the trailer (Figure 1). As well, the adjustable ramp was used to load the top deck and reduced handling stress as it greatly reduced the angle pigs were required to climb compared to the internal truck ramp. Some farms had concrete step ramps with 30-cm treads, which the pigs readily negotiated (Figure 2). Another farm fabricated a ramp extension which was used to reduce the slope of the internal truck ramp, making it easier to load pigs onto the top deck (see Figure 3).
 
Lighting in the load-out area was also examined. It is recommended that loading facilities be well lit, with diff use incandescent lighting preferred as it reduces contrast and shadows, which may cause animals to balk. Also, when moving into a new area such as the truck, lighting should ideally change from darker to lighter, as animals may balk if required to move into darkness. Lighting levels (recorded using a light meter) showed a large variation in lighting between farms, ranging from below 100 lux at some facilities to over 1,000 lux at others. Lighting during loading was also affected by the time of loading and external weather conditions. Some facilities used an enclosed truck bay, which minimized the effects of time of day and weather conditions.
 
Other features of superior loading facilities were manways, dedicated loading pens near the load-out and external truck sheds. Manways outside of the alley allow for more efficient handling, as the handlers can easily move around and past groups of pigs without affecting their movement. This improves not only pig flow, but also handler safety.
 
Many barns had loading pens adjacent to the load-out that pigs were moved to up to a week before loading. This has the benefit of reducing mixing stress at transport and makes it much simpler to withdraw feed before transport, as well as making the loading process much faster, with reduced stress on pigs and handlers. Finally, some barns had truck sheds adjacent to the load-out. Sheds provide the advantage of having environmental conditions consistent between the barn and trailer, so pig movement onto the truck is not affected by wind, rain, cold temperatures or high contrast due to sunlight.
 
Handling practices
 
Recommended practices related to group size, distractions and handler technique and attitude were reviewed. In terms of group size, smaller groups (five to 10 animals) have been shown to be easier to move. If larger groups are moved, considerations must be made regarding the animals (level of fear and willingness to move), facilities (minimal blockage or distractions) and the handlers abilities.
 
Distractions are known to cause pigs to slow, balk or turn back, and farm managers must be observant to detect and minimize distractions in order to reduce stress and keep pigs moving. One common distraction is too many handlers, or handlers that get ahead of pigs and cause them to turn back. Several examples of this were found in the video footage and demonstrate how important it is to observe animals and minimize distractions during handling.
 
Handler technique and attitude are very difficult to define and measure, however some general recommendations include minimizing prod use, using behavioural principles such as the flight zone and herd behaviour, and maintaining a calm and consistent attitude.
 
Prod use on the farms observed was very low. In fact, the farm with highest prod use actually had the longest loading time. This is because when the prod is used frequently, pigs become less capable of responding and attempt to turn back. Several examples of good handling were found. In one example, the handler stood well behind a group of about 20 pigs as they exited the home pen, providing ‘release’. When pigs are moving well a good handler will step back and let the animals move on their own. If the handler steps in closer in an attempt to get them moving faster, the closest pigs will often turn back and escape past the handler. In another example, groups of 12 pigs were moved using handling boards and minimal prod use, and with minimal interference from handlers. The pigs exited a pre-loading pen, negotiated a turn and mounted the truck ramp calmly as there was plenty of space and the handlers provided an appropriate level of encouragement.
 
Conclusion
 
There is a large variation in facilities and handling skills across the swine industry, and often little opportunity for producers or barn employees to gain new knowledge.
 
Lighting, flooring, alley and ramp dimensions and animal handling techniques all have the potential to cause problems when moving pigs through a facility. The best load-outs in Saskatchewan are ones which have taken these factors into account.
 
The authors’ conclusions highlight the fact that handling of pigs at loading can be improved by a variety of measures. This may include extensive load-out renovations, but frequently simple changes in lighting or handling techniques can also be effective. Producers appreciate seeing designs from other facilities and discussing the practical ideas and options presented in this work.
 
Acknowledgements
 
The authors gratefully acknowledge the contribution of participating producers. Strategic program funding provided by Sask Pork, Alberta Pork, Manitoba PorkCouncil, and the Saskatchewan Agricultural Development Fund. Specific project funding was provided by Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture’s ADOPT programme.
 July 2012
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« Reply #396 on: August 03, 2012, 08:50:25 AM »


Canada Hog Markets
01 August 2012

 

CANADA - Ontario – Summertime… and the livings not so easy, writes Bob Fraser, Sales and Service at Genesus Ontario.

Crops
 
At least not if you toil in barns or fields. Perhaps if you’re at the beach or a cabin the seemingly endless summer feels like a boon but for those in agriculture the deepening drought with its continuous news cycle now reaching the mainstream media can become increasingly disconcerting and discouraging. However here in our small batch (Ontario) we’re in reasonable shape. With apologies to those that haven’t caught the rains crops look relatively good. Blessed as we are surrounded by the Great Lakes we’re not particularly familiar with widespread crop failure. We certainly have years better than another but we tend to always get rain. Not always enough and the nature of thunderstorms in the summertime it can rain on one side of the road and not the other. Therefore some areas are in better shape than others but virtually everyone will have a crop with opportunity for many to have quite a good crop.
 



Genesus Global Market Report
Prices for the week of July 22, 2012
 


Country

Domestic price
(own currency)

US dollars
(Liveweight a lb)
 


USA (Iowa-Minnesota)

94.57¢ USD/lb carcass

69.98¢
 


Canada (Ontario)

1.75¢ CAD/kg carcass

63.70¢
 


Mexico (DF)

23.48 MXN/kg liveweight

80.44¢
 


Brazil (South Region)

2.15 BRL/kg liveweight

47.64¢
 


Russia

95 RUB/kg liveweight

$1.34
 


China

13.24 RMB/kg liveweight

94.37¢
 


Spain

1.38 EUR/kg liveweight

77.04¢
 

The general rotation in Ontario is corn, soybeans and/or edible beans to winter wheat. My unscientific canvas of customers with winter wheat would deem the crop as average to better than average with yields suggested from 75 bus to 113 bus. Seeming to average around 100 bus. Which by most measures would be considered a good crop in Ontario. As well the crop appears to have been dry and toxin free. So the first round of the harvest cycle has been encouraging as well as 3 to 4 weeks early encouraging some to take a shot on double cropping soybeans. This doesn’t have a great track record of success here but “hope springs eternal”. So the beans and corn for the most part skates along the edge of stress, looking for rain but catching some, looks to be opportunity for reasonable crops here.
 
Hogs
 
If we take a look at the OMAFRA Weekly Hog Market Facts compiled by John Bancroft, Market Strategies Program Lead, Stratford OMAFRA john.bancroft@ontario.ca it’s difficult not to think of the opening line of Dickens – Tale of Two Cities “it was the best of times it was the worst of times”. John’s estimated margin after feeder pig and feed for the last five weeks is considerably better than we’ve seen for a very long time. However a review of the Ontario Feed Market below shows lots of trouble with corn and SBM with a trajectory that would do Cape Canaveral proud!
 



The Ontario Market

22-Jun-12

29-Jun-12

6-Jul-12

13-Jul-12

20-Jul-12
 


Average price ($/ckg, DW total value)

$202.79

$214.73

$211.69

$209.71

 
 


Low price ($/ckg, DW total value)

$175.34

$183.71

$190.65

$186.27

 
 


High price ($/ckg, DW total value)

$222.49

$234.23

$233.56

$228.52

 
 


Weekly Average Dressed Weight (kg)

96.46

96.61

96.42

$96.20

 
 


Market Hogs Sold

82,399

82,931

75,753

85,175

 
 


Market Hogs Sold - % of Previous Year

106%

115%

92%

99%

 
 


100% Formula Price ($/ckg, 100 index)

$184.02

$190.80

$185.80

$183.89

$175.57
 


Previous Year - 100% Formula Price ($/ckg, 100 index)

$174.16

$180.50

$173.95

$166.72

$164.90
 


Weaned Pig Value (C$/pig) - Formula Value

$47.85

$49.61

$48.31

$47.81

$45.65
 


Feeder Pig Value (C$/pig) - Formula Value

$75.91

$78.71

$76.64

$75.85

$72.42
 


Est. Grow Finish Feed Cost for Current Week

$88.41

$92.80

$99.14

$102.26

$109.75
 


Est. Margin after Feeder Pig and Feed

$43.58

$50.45

$44.30

$43.70

$34.69
 





The Ontario Feed Market
(Friday's Closing Prices)

22-Jun-12

29-Jun-12

6-Jul-12

13-Jul-12

20-Jul-12
 


Chicago Corn (US $/bushel) - Sept'12

$5.9025

$6.2850

$6.9525

$7.4050

$8.2450
 


Chicago Soybeans (US $/bushel) - Aug'12

$14.4150

$14.8175

$15.6725

$15.9475

$17.5750
 


Soybean Meal ($/tonneHamilton + $20)

$535.56

$543.61

$581.09

$609.31

$677.54
 


Old Crop Corn ( farm price - $/tonne) based on Sept'12

$230.40

$255.30

$277.64

$287.59

$320.65
 


Western Ontario feed Corn ($/tonne) - based on Sept'12

$242.61

$275.38

$298.90

$302.94

$336.80
 


New Crop Corn ( farm price - $/tonne) based on Dec'12

$192.51

$216.43

$235.42

$254.02

$281.78
 


DDGS FOB Chatham/Sarnia/Almer ($/tonne)

$222.50

$217.50

$222.50

$235.00

$257.50
 

Prospects
 
This trajectory results as shown by John’s excellent work on margins being slashed from the present $37 to $15 and appearing to be on its way even further south.
 
The Hog Margin Tracker for 20 July 2012
 •Pigs marketed this week showed a realized margin of $37 per hog based on a market hog value of $190, a feeder pig cost of $62 (placed on feed April 6th), and a feed cost of $91 per pig. The expected margin when the pigs went on feed in April was $27. The difference is the higher realized market hog price this week.
 

•The pigs that went on feed this week (20 July) are to be marketed the week ending 2 November show an expected margin of $15 per pig. This is based on a formula feeder pig purchase value of $29, an estimated feed cost of $108 per pig and an estimated market hog value of $152. The estimated feed costs and market hog value are based on the basis adjusted closing futures for lean hogs, corn, soybean meal and the Canadian dollar for Thursday, 19 July.
 
Once again highlighting the need for astute risk management in its many forms be it having a land base, judicious buying & selling to protect margin, to adaptation of the latest technology to ensure maximum productivity.
 
Finally for interest how exports of live pigs to the US have changed in the latest six months. The North Dakota port of entry would represent Western Canada pigs primarily Manitoba. The Michigan & New York port of entry represents Eastern Canada pigs primarily Ontario.
 



Summary of US Pig Import Numbers
 


Port of Entry

Feeder Pigs

Market Hogs

Sows & Boars
 


Total for Canada
 


% Change from 2011

2%

-23%

-3%
 


Avg. Head/Week 2012

92,680

8,060

8,634
 


Change/week from 2011

1,728

-2,403

-260
 


North Dakota
 


% Change from 2011

6%

-30%

-1%
 


Avg. Head/Week 2012

77,483

1,915

5,100
 


Change/week from 2011

4,312

-840

70
 


Michigan & New York
 


% Change from 2011

-5%

-36%

-9%
 


Avg. Head/Week 2012

15,008

3,024

3,514
 


Change/week from 2011

-816

-1,692

-350
 

The % shown is the percentage change in 2012 versus 2011 as of 30 June 2012

The Avg. Head/week is for 2012 based on 26 weeks

Change /Week is the average difference in the number of pigs per week from 2011

Data Source: Canadian Live Animal Imports by State of Entry (USDA WA_LS635)
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« Reply #397 on: August 11, 2012, 09:29:58 AM »


Pork Commentary: US Drought Continues, Feed Price at Record High
08 August 2012


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.

CANADA - The US drought continues unabated, while grain and subsequent feed prices continue to touch record highs. It is miserable. The whole grain – feed scenario is playing havoc in the global meat protein sector. It’s a market that has the direction and pattern of a headless chicken, writes Jim Long.

Our Observations

Sow liquidation has started there is no doubt. Sows are being aborted and shipped. A.I. orders are being stopped as breeding has ended. Gilt orders are cancelled. The herd will be shrinking at a rate the last few weeks of 10,000 per week minimum.

 We will get criticism for saying there’s liquidation. Some will say it might encourage some to keep going the old ‘Last Man Standing’ economic position. We say it doesn’t matter what we write, the industry comprises scores of individuals with their own circumstances. They each will have their own scenario, some in control of their destiny and others controlled by the banks.

 Our opinion is few producers have much feed purchased ahead or price protected. Many got advice from the wizards who told them not to buy grain. Don’t take a position record crop is coming. It kind of made sense except it didn’t work. Now we have a swine sector, cattle industry, and poultry industry being bludgeoned by negative margins. We expect the US meat protein production sector will be losing $300 million plus per week by September. This market turnaround will lead to an unprecedented decrease in meat protein production by the second quarter next year as poultry, pork, and beef supplies crater.
 
The only hope for not having the meat sector from shrinking rapidly is the corn ethanol mandate which would up corn were altered which would up corn availability and lower its price!
 
The corn ethanol lobby doesn’t want mandates to be adjusted. They say it won’t lower the corn price. We say if corn prices won’t drop Mr Big Corn Ethanol Lobbyist why are you scared of the mandate being adjusted?
 
Misery loves company

 Brazil live hogs in the low 40 cent per pound US live weight. Train wreck.

In China the chicken industry having big bloodletting – China $12.00 per bushel corn has its consequences.
 
Great Britain expect the sow herd to decrease 10 per cent by Christmas (10 per cent in USA. – Canada would be 700,000 sows).
 
As we write we are on a plane to Germany. In the next three weeks we will be in Eastern Europe, Russia, China, and Japan. We will report our observations.
 
More than ever as an industry our destiny is linked by Global circumstances, and local matters but only so much. Our sense is America’s drought is affecting the whole world, not only North American meat supply will decline but so will the worlds. What we are living is a catastrophic drought event that will have implications for years on how we all do business. It will never be the same.
 
The flip side of the implosion is there is little doubt in our mind hog prices next summer will be the highest in history. We had $1.00 hogs this year, how will there not be less hogs next summer?
 
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