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Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #420 on: March 30, 2013, 09:06:53 AM »

Alberta Pork Concludes Biosecurity/Code of Practice Sessions
28 March 2013
 
CANADA - In ongoing efforts to keep producers informed and gather their input on key issues, Alberta Pork recently concluded a series of Biosecurity/Code of Practice rap sessions throughout the province in February and March of 2013.

In addition to wrapping up the Biosecurity Training Program and discussing the impending Code of Practice revisions, there was important information on traceability and a fascinating presentation on low stress pig handling with Nancy Lidster.
 
Over 200 producers took part, handing in comments and suggestions. They also engaged in discussions, which made for some lively and thought-provoking dialogue.
 
The sessions were sponsored by the Canadian Swine Health Board (CSHB) and Growing Forward.
 
The CSHB and Growing Forward biosecurity programs are now closed.
 
Now that producer input has been gathered, Alberta Pork will be relaying it to the Code of Practice Committee in anticipation of the public comment period starting 1 June.


Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #421 on: April 07, 2013, 12:07:31 AM »

Pork Commentary: Road Trip to Estonia
02 April 2013


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


ESTONIA - Last week we were in Tallinn, Estonia. It was our first time there. Estonia is county of 1.3 million people with Finland to its north, Russia to its east and Latvia to the south. Not a large country but its population density per square mile (or kilometer) is the smallest in Europe.

We were in Estonia to sign a contract for Genesus Genetics to supply and operate the genetic component of a new state of the art facility with the company ooo Clean Gen. The farm is in an isolated location at Narva, Estonia right by the Russian border and about 120 miles (200 Kilometers) from St. Petersburg, Russia.
 
The new production facility will utilize the latest technology in sow housing environmental, including a filtered air system and production of pelleted manure. It will meet and exceed all European Union regulations that pertain to swine production and the environment. The first phase of production is projected to be 125,000 head per year. The Clean Gen operation will be a primary nucleus and multiplication facility to supply Genesus swine genetics to the Balkans, Central Europe and Russian markets.
 




In Tallinn we signed the agreement in the Estonian Parliament building. Estonian Senior Officials are quite supportive of the introduction of the technology transfer that will be associated with the Clean Gen project. Tallinn is a medieval city with the old town district dating from the time of the Teutonic Knights and the Crusades to convert the local population to Christianity. By chance on the first night we were there, there was a candlelight vigil of 20,000 candles to commemorate the 20,000 Estonia’s shipped to Siberia during Stalin’s time when Estonia was part of the Soviet Union. Most did not survive. Have to say it was moving seeing the candles and people honouring their countrymen.
 
Tallinn is a spectacular city with the old town excellently preserved with most of the buildings hundreds of years old. We have travelled to approximately 50 countries and would put Tallinn near the top of the best places we have been.
 
Is Optimism a Blessing or Curse?
 
When we were in Estonia we met with Europeans who read this commentary. They commented that this commentary is usually very optimistic. Made us think about who we are and what makes us tick, so we did some research about North Americans in general.
 
First a quote from David Landes in his book on world economic history, "The Wealth and Poverty of Nations", he concludes that optimism is the major trait of great nations.
 
"In this world, the optimists have it, not because they are always right, but because they are positive...That is the way of achievement, civilization and success... Educated, eye-open optimism pays."
 
Some recent polls show some differences between Europe and America.
 



People Pessimistic about their own economic conditions

Satisfied with life we lead

 

France
 
63%
 
United States
 
65%
 


Italy
 
62%
 
Europe
 
34%
 


Great Britain
 
58%
 
Belief in Miracles
 


Spain
 
59%
 
United States
 
80%
 


United States
 
46%
 
Germany
 
39%
 


France
 
37%
 


 
 
Belief in Life After Death
 
 
 


United States
 
80%
 
France
 
50%
 

When we look at the previous polling we see the inherent optimism of American Society. We see this optimism every day in the swine industry and agriculture.
 •As a group we expect it will rain this year and yields will be good.
 •Many hog producers are hanging on despite losses of over $30 per head inherently believing lower feed prices and higher pork demand will lead to profitability.
 •It's why farmland has hit $20,000 an acre in some areas. Optimism that grain prices and land values will not decrease.
 •Maybe it’s our Continents belief in Miracles. Some days it seems to be the back-up plan to get the hog industry profitable.
 •The Optimism we all have is a strength. The downside, we don’t have many quitters. We have written this before. "If we ever went to war, I would want to be in a platoon of pig farmers, they never stop fighting and will refuse to die."
 
1 March Hogs and Pigs report – We know it has been released but on a plane coming back from Estonia. We will comment next week.

 


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics


Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #422 on: April 13, 2013, 09:30:27 AM »

Ontario Pig Production Trends
12 April 2013
 



Information provided courtesy Ontario Pork





CANADA - 2012 pig production was similar to the previous two years with 6.059 million pigs being marketed, according to John Bancroft in Ontaio Pork's "Pork News & Views".

The graph below shows the trend in pig production for Ontario since 1993.
 



Pig Production in Ontario (1,000 of Head)
 
Some items of interest are:
 •This accounts for pigs that raised in Ontario and either slaughtered in Canada or exported as breeding stock, slaughter pigs (sows, boars and market pigs), or feeder pigs (early weaned and feeder pigs). Interprovincial trade of feeder pigs is not accounted for.
 •2012 pig production was similar to the previous two years with 6.059 million pigs being marketed
 •In 2012, 82 per cent were slaughtered in Canada, 13 per cent exported as feeder pigs, and 5 per cent exported for slaughter. The change from 2011 was a slight shift down in the number of pigs exported for slaughter with a slight shift up in the number slaughtered within Canada.
 •Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec accounted for 80 per cent of the Canadian pig production.
 

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #423 on: April 22, 2013, 06:39:27 AM »

Canada: Hog Markets
18 April 2013
 

CANADA - In several of our commentaries we have made much of the resilience and toughness of pork producers, writes Bob Fraser – Sales & Service, Genesus Ontario.

As Jim Long most eloquently said “if one had to go to war you would want to be with a battalion of pig farmers as you clearly can’t kill them”. However added to that tenacity in an industry where “not for the faint of heart” is a gross understatement I’m seeing another very encouraging development here in Ontario.
 
I recently attended the Ontario Pork Industry Council (OPIC) Annual General Meeting. This is a grassroots producer/industry organisation started 12 years ago with the byline “Working Together to Build a Stronger Pork Industry for Ontario” www.opic.on.ca

They have done a range of projects over this time period but there is one initiative that is a very interesting and encouraging development. OPIC developed a sister organization OSHAB (Ontario Swine Health Advisory Board).
 
I quote from Dr Doug MacDougal, Chair of OSHAB, Board of Directors: “Can you imagine our industry collectively, transparently and effectively working to contain, control and eliminate PRRS? This is the vision that was barely whispered a year ago and yet today we are collaborating with Ontario Pork, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food, Animal Health Lab, Ontario Association of Swine Veterinarians, Canadian Swine Health Board, Canadian Association of Swine Veterinarians and other provinces’ organizations to develop this actual outcome.
 
"This vision is not just about PRRS but rather using the most expensive endemic disease as the model to build an innovative disease strategy that will be able to more effectively respond to other endemic, emerging or foreign animal disease. At the same time with PRRS success, we deliver reduced disease cost to producers. The delivery of this vision is also fundamentally changing our industry to more of a team that is working together and that is more able to speak as a single voice to policy makers, funding agencies and domestic and international customers.”
 
This is a great development that gives definition to the term “when the going gets tough, the tough get going”. Normally in challenging times we see a tendency to “every man for himself” but here in Ontario we are seeing a great effort to wrestle a disease that is estimated to cost over a billion dollars per year ($10 per hog) in the USA and C$130 million (C$5 per hog) in Canada to the ground.
 
This initiative is being driven by PRRS Area Regional Control & Elimination (ARC&E) Projects with objectives to:
 •Implement PRRS ARC&E pilot projects in Ontario, delivered as voluntary programs.
 •Develop a culture of openness, transparency, cooperation & collaboration.
 •Target greater than 90 per cent producer participation in project areas.
 •Heighten understanding & awareness of the importance of coordinated regional approaches to combat PRRS & other emerging swine diseases, rather than relying on isolated efforts on individual farms.
 •Improve communication & share knowledge related to biosecurity & disease control
 •Enhance the sustainability of PRRS ARC&E projects through the development of low cost sampling triggered by clinical symptoms.
 
Presently there are four such projects under way.
 •Niagara – 76 sites, 97 per cent participation, area now using an on-line login system to review area maps and information on PRRS status. This was the first pilot project in the province.
 •Watford – this mini-ARC&E with 55 of 57 sites registered, farm data collected and presumed PRRS status mapped and a PRRS notification system in place.
 •Dundalk – another mini-ARC&E working on completing participation agreements and site registration.
 •Perth – one of the largest pork producing counties in the province – is the first voluntary, producer-led initiative of this scale undertaken in Canada – goal in 2013 to register, determine status and map a minimum of 240 sites in the county.
 
Whether Ontario producers can succeed in beating this devastating disease or not remains to be seen but they are to be commended on not only being tough but they also don’t run and they don’t hide!
 
If we take a look at the OMAFRA Weekly Hog Market Facts compiled by John Bancroft, Market Strategies Program Lead, Stratford OMAFRA john.bancroft@ontario.ca we see market hog price six to 12 dollars softer for the last five weeks than same time a year ago. However we see an encouraging softening of corn & SBM yet to work its way into feed costs that bode well particularly if we can get a strengthening to hog prices in the coming weeks.
 


Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #424 on: April 27, 2013, 07:52:27 AM »

Pork Commentary: Hog Markets in Perspective
23 April 2013


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


CANADA & US - Every day, we are asked if the US-Canada hog market has room for a run higher this year, writes Jim Long. We always answer yes. We understand the near anguish of the questioner. The losses of the hog industry have been real. It hasn’t gotten better.

Last week Sterling Marketing of Colorado estimated farrow to finish losses per head to be currently $25.00. Cowboy math 2.7 million market hogs, USA-Canada a week equals $100 million plus in the red a week, it has been, Ugly, Ugly, Ugly.
 
Some Observations
 
A year ago this week the US National Base Lean 53-54 per cent was 81.46¢ a lb. This year 80.22¢ a lb. Not much difference. Last year we did reach $1.00 a lb. within 10 weeks from now. Markets move can be volatile and mostly unexpected (note: Corn dropped about $1.00 a bushel in a couple days recently).
 
Some are predicting (Hello Missouri Ag-Economists) that US Hog Production will increase about 1 per cent this year over last. Actual US hog marketing year to date have been -0.7 per cent lower. We believe that there was sow liquidation not expansion in the last 10 months. US hog marketing in our opinion will remain below year ago levels for the balance of 2013. This will support hog prices.
 
Hog supply in Canada – year to date (First Quarter) Hog Slaughter in Canada is -1.7 per cent lower year over year (about 100,000 head). Feeder Pig and Early Wean shipments Canada to USA are down 9 per cent (-100,000). Sum it up, Canada hog marketings and small pigs to USA down about 200,000 first three months of 2013. Keep it up it will be close to a million head. Less is not more. Canada’s production decreasing due to the ugly lack of profitability. We are in a Continental hog market fewer pigs in Canada supports Canada-USA prices. We are aware of continued sow liquidation in Canada which will magnify the pig supply decrease.
 
US Sow slaughter is the first three months of 2013 is 1 per cent higher than a year ago. More sows marketed does not scream EXPANSION to us.
 
Dr Steve Meyers last week wrote that US Wholesale pork Prices are at very low levels historically relative to Choice Grade Beef and Chicken. This in our opinion will be an incentive for retailers to feature pork which will then stimulate demand and enhance hog prices. We all know the seasonal supply of pork will drop significantly over the next few weeks.
 
What is seasonable supply difference? In 2012 second quarter April-June the US marketed 26.659 million head or 2.051 million a week. The last quarter of 2012 (Oct-Dec) the US marketed 30.426 million head or 2.34 million head per week. That is a seasonal difference of about 300,000 (almost 15 per cent ) head per week. Big supply change – big price difference. This year April – June we expect a minimum 3000,000 head difference per week compare to fourth quarter 2012.
 
Corn Crop Planting is being delayed due to cold and rain. So much for droughts as areas of the Mississippi River could flood. We find it interesting that despite what was a disastrous drought last year and Corn-Soybean crops significantly down. Recent Cash Corn bushel Omaha this year $6.81 last year. $6.47. Cash Soybean bushel Southern Iowa $14.61 last year $14.46. A year ago at this time a record crop was dreamed of, we had a disastrous crop year instead, but prices year over year almost the same. Question what would a big crop do to corn and soybean prices? Obviously corn-soybean demand has been damaged, how low will prices have to go to stimulate demand? Last week Rondonopolis, Brazil Corn a bushel $2.86 US soybean bushel $10.44 USD (other Brazil prices higher) Supply – Demand = Price
 


We have written a few times that the fortunes of the hog industry profitability is greatly tied to our feed costs. Indeed the hog price we are getting now is quite good relative to past years.
 
Pork buyers whether Retailers, Food service or export have paid significantly more for pork the last two years. Our Farmer Arithmetic tells us its $40/head more than the average of the previous nine years. The positive is the hog price and pork price went up and all the pork we produced was consumed at a significantly higher price which does reflect real positive pork demand.The price of pork in the short term has nothing to do with where feed costs are. As an industry we should be thankful and positive that hog and pork price have shown real price power. This has not turned into profit but if feed prices decline the hog price is at a level that will result in real profits. Consumers vote with their money and they have proven the last two years they will pay more for Pork.

 


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics


 

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #425 on: May 12, 2013, 08:29:27 AM »

Pork Commentary: US Cash Lean Hog Price Higher
07 May 2013



Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


US - Last week the National US lean hog price increased 5.5¢/lb. or about $11.00 per head to the better ($80.40 – $85.93 53-54 per cent lean). The right direction for sure. Some lean hogs were trading as high as 93, last Friday, writes Jim Long.

The $11.00 per head gain cut losses by the same amount. We need at least another $11.00 per head gain in price to get to breakeven.

Last week the US marketed 2.098 million hogs, 20,000 more than the same week a year ago. A real positive as we drill down into the data is that a year ago US carcass weights were averaging 210 lbs. at this time while currently we are 207.5 lb. carcass or about 2.5 lbs. lighter. The lighter weight reflects a more current inventory year over year. Hogs are far from backed up, indeed they are quite current.

What we heard last week was Packers were looking for hogs. Packers were calling producers and it is becoming increasingly obvious there is a level of concern on the Packer procurement side that they will have shackles running empty in the next few weeks. The old adage “Who’s calling who!” rings true. Lots of Market hogs – producers call packers. Shortage – Packers call producers. When Packers are calling, it’s the Canary in the Coal Mine warning that hog prices are going higher.

A year ago this week US National 53-54 per cent lean hogs averaged 80.53. It looks like this year this week 86.87 will be the average. Last year lean hogs reached a $1.00, we have expected and still expect the $1.00 this year. When the Chicken Little Economists ran for cover when lean hogs were near 70¢ this winter we still believed $1.00 hogs were coming. Our rationale – Liquidation happened, less hogs and good demand. Both domestically and for export will pull prices higher.

Other Observations

We expect Lean Hog prices will be quite historically strong over the coming months, which in our mind we have little doubt. The wildcard for market profitability is what feed costs will be. To say the grain market is volatile is an understatement extraordinaire. Two weeks ago we were being inundated by drought talk, “It’s too dry”, “It won’t ever rain”. Two weeks seems like an eternity. Now it’s too wet and there are floods. Drought – Floods! We need Goldilocks to step up and get it just right!

Not to be cavalier but we expect the crop will get planted soon. The rain will have done more good than harm for yields. The US Crop Moisture Index currently shows normal to wet conditions in the US Grain Belt. The old saying rain makes grain is relevant. Last year we saw what too little rain did to our feed costs.

Summary

It’s been a long haul – losses over $30 per head for too many months. It’s real hard to be optimistic for all of us invested in swine production. Sometimes it appears the forces of nature are against our industry, feed prices, swine flu, Paylean, global economy, currency exchange, etc., etc. The question “When will it get better?” is asked by our bankers, employees, customers and spouses. By nature we are all mostly optimistic. It’s our strength and our weakness. The only thing that is clear, we are producing with pork a product with real Global Demand. 44 per cent of the world’s lean protein is Pork. US Hog Prices are seasonally 30 per cent more than they have historically been. Consumers have paid more for pork. Consumers vote with their money and they have consistently voted to buy pork at historically high consumer prices. A sign of real demand.

We expect over the next few weeks as hog supply declines hog prices will rocket higher.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #426 on: May 20, 2013, 07:09:42 AM »

Pork Commentary: Crop Wildcard
14 May 2013


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


CANADA - A USDA report last Friday estimated the US corn crop at a record 14.14 billion bushels for this crop year. A yield of 158 bushels per acre and an estimated 97.3 million planted. Planting delays in the Corn Belt continue due to wet weather (What happened to the drought?). When the “dust” settled Friday on the futures, December Corn was down 12¢ to $5.29/bushel (near life of contract lows).

On soybeans USDA estimated 2013 will have 44.5 bushel/acre yield on 76.2 million acres. The USDA estimated world stocks of soybeans will be quite high at end of year. October soybean meal closed 5.3 to $339/ton (near life of contract lows).

Our contention has been that hog supply (pork) year over year will decline through 2013. Lean hog prices year over year will be higher. The key to profitability for the swine industry is cheaper feed. Indeed it is most important factor. In our opinion the USDA crop report indicates US and Global supply of feedstuffs are setting up a scenario for lower cost of production. The wildcard is weather, a real wild card.

Other Observations

National Daily 53-54% lean hogs averaged 89.97/lb. last Thursday, up from the previous week’s $85.93/lb. (Up $8.00/head). A year ago 53-54% lean hogs were $78.73/lb. an increase of $22.00/head year over year. $22 per head increase! Obviously there is better hog demand year over year. Packers aren’t paying more to give charity to producers. Market conditions of supply-demand – competition is driving hog prices higher. Packers on cut-outs aren’t making money but whether it’s due to processing margins export margin and or shelf space competition the fierce enterprise system has packers chasing hogs.

A year ago the average National lean hog carcass weight was 210 lbs. A minimum 4 lb. carcass difference, but over 5 lbs. liveweight, lower for sure. This year has had cooler temperature that last year. Which in itself should increase weights not decrease. Hogs marketed per week has little change year over year. We see 2 factors:

The demand for hogs is pulling hogs ahead, packers are chasing supply and producers are co-operating to try to keep shackles full. In our opinion the reason hog supply is tightening is that last July sow herd liquidation started. 115 days and six months later in the hog life cycle is about now. Less hogs are a reality.

Another factor cutting hog weights could be the decline of Paylean use due to export restrictions put in place by China and Russia. Paylean definitely makes hogs heavier and leaner. To turn finishing barns on a production cycle it could be leading to lower hog shipping weights as Paylean use declines.

A packer last week who was trying to get affidavits signed by producers to declare they don’t use Paylean made the comment: “We need to get Paylean gone to make exports move, producers don’t like it but we have no choice, it’s a market reality for our plant.” When we see this there is no way we want to open up the Improvest issue (Chemical Castration vaccine). Try to explain Improvest to the pork buyers? We won’t be going there.

In the last while, Canada to USA early weans and feeder pig’s numbers have dropped about 20,000 a week year over year. We don’t think there’s more finishing capacity in Canada. The fewer small pigs is a reflection of fewer sows.

Genesus has a nucleus-multiplier in Southern Russia. We are seeing crops in moisture and warmth. The Southern Russia crop is well started.

Summary

Cash hog prices continue to gain strength, year over year lower hog weights and prices over $20 per head better. We expect over the next few weeks lean hogs will reach $1.00 (last Friday some lean hogs 93¢). The wildcard is feed prices but if USD and Chicago futures are correct, cost of production is going down over the next few months.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #427 on: July 24, 2013, 11:08:18 PM »

Pork Commentary: The Canary in the Coal Mine
16 July 2013


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


CANADA - Driving through Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin to the National Pork Industry Conference in Wisconsin Dells, crops look better than the same time last year, writes Jim Long.

The year over and over difference is huge. Last year at the conference the agenda and sentiments was overtaken by the feed costs conversation (rightfully so) and you could sense and hear apprehension and maybe fear as producers worried that corn could reach $10.00 a bushel. That didn’t happen but the losses for hog producers until six weeks ago were probably in the $20 per head range for the previous 11 months. It will be interesting to feel the attitude at the conference this year. As we expect most realize there fortune is based on where feed prices land. The difference of $30 per head in cost of production due to feed price movement is a real possibility over the next twelve months.

Feeder pigs

We believe small pigs including feeder pigs are the "Canary in the Coal Mine" of what the industry thinks of the future (Canary’s sense gas long before humans) maybe even more than lean hog futures. A year ago the US feeder pig average was $18.00 and it stayed below $20.00 for almost three months. Losses per head for feeder pig producers were probably at least $40 per head. Currently US feeder pigs are averaging $50.43 per 40 lb. pig. This despite cash corn near $7.00 per bushel. We have been in the swine business a long time (there are days it feels too long). In that time period we have watched the DTN Livestock Margin which every trading day calculates what you pay using the assumptions for a feeder pig. Over time the DTN index has tracked very close to the cash feeder pig price. Last week the DTN Livestock Margin was $13.41 per pig as the maximum price to pay using $6.88/bushel corn, soy bean $5.76 ton, Nov lean futures $81.35, etc. The difference between USDA cash of 40 lb. feeders and DTN Maximum price was over $35 per head! All indications are there is strong demand for small pigs. There are finishing barns empty which is not normal for this time of the year. For example one of our Genesus customers told us this week they were asked by a major feed company to sell 2500 small pigs a week for the next year. Starting now. Obviously the buyer had a place to go with the pig now. Feeder pig brokers tell us similar. Strong demand especially considering this is November placement.

Also small pig buyers we believe have started to dial in cheaper feed prices. They aren’t calculating using $7.00 corn but $5.00 corn and cheaper soybean. This changes cost production up to $25.00 per head.

Empty Barns, cheaper feed, but what $50 feeder pigs really tells us is demand is outstripping supply. There is not one buyer who is paying $50 per pig because he wants too. No one pays more than they need too if they can buy cheaper (especially in the face of significantly lower breakeven prices.) "The Canary in the Coal Mine" of hog production is these $50 feeder pigs. We had sow herd liquidation last year starting in July. The world had sow heard liquidation last year starting in July as Global feed prices accelerated. This has not only limited supply in the USA but is exhausting Global demand for Pork.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #428 on: August 04, 2013, 11:37:14 AM »

Pork Commentary: Feed Costs Plummeting
30 July 2013


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


US & CANADA - This week, we were looking at our Feed Costs, writes Jim Long. Bottom-line at current Oct-Dec Input costs compared to our July our farrow to finish feed costs are going to drop $38.00 per head. To get a pig to 55 lb. (25 kilos) will decrease $13.00 per head from July to Oct-Dec. Huge difference.

Cowboy Arithmetic $38.00 times 2 million hogs (USA) = about $80 million a week change in the United States industries costs. The Chinese purchase of Smithfield, e.g. 15 million hogs a year times $38= almost $600 million feed savings. Goes a long way to helping pay for the Smithfield Purchase, if it all plays out.

National Pork Industry Conference

A week ago we attended national Pork Industry Conference in Wisconsin. Last week we wrote some observations, this week we have some more.

Richard Raymond, M.D. gave some data on antibiotic and food safety animal production.
•Food borne illnesses from all causes down 23% from 1999-2009.
•March 2013 CDC published – Food borne illness outbreaks from 1998-2008
•46% of outbreaks are attributed to produce with leafy greens leading the way at 22% of the overall total
•Dairy 14%
•Fish 6%
•Meat & Poultry 22% (Same as leafy greens)
•Dr. Raymond broke down Antibiotic Numbers
•FDA report on all antibiotics sold or distributed in 2011 for use in “food producing animals”
•Ionophores 30% I 2012 (not used in human medicine at all)
•Tetracycline 41.5% (of very limited use in human medicine with many better choices available)
•NIR 12% (most not used in human medicine)
•Cephalosporin 0.5% (of critical importance to human medicine and limited to therapeutic treatment in animals)
•Summary – Dr. Raymond’s premise is food is getting safer. About 80% of food borne illnesses are not meat-poultry related. Over 80% of antibiotics used in livestock are not used at all or significantly in human medicine. His thoughts are antibiotic use in agriculture has an extremely low risk for the general population and that the huge need for food to feed a growing middle class and up to 3 billion more people globally by 2050 cannot be achieved without the prudent utilization of antibiotics.

Code of Practice

Steve Weiss of Vast spoke on the proposed changes to Canada’s Code of Practice for Swine Production. There were several comments throughout the conference by American Industry Participants on what was characterized as Canadian industry’s weak position with the Animal Welfare Lobby.

Proposed Changes
•Gestating Sows – Pen Gestation after 28-35 days post breeding by July 2024
•All new construction
•Farrowing Crate Sizing July 2024
•Boars – stand – turn around – lie comfortably July 2024
•Weaner/Grower/Finisher Space Allowance
•Elimination of Electric Prods
•Tail docking of pigs > 7 days requires pain control
•Euthanasia: Sedation required prior to CO2 euthanasia

Our sense is most Canadian producers don’t understand and or know the proposed changes. They are significant. All will increase costs and you wonder if any are necessary. If you are a Canadian producer you should review the information and proposed changes. There is a comment period which you can participate.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #429 on: August 12, 2013, 10:39:58 AM »

Canada: Hog Markets
08 August 2013
Genesus - The first power in genetics

CANADA - Here in Canada in the “dog days of summer” Ontario old crop corn $5.84, Ontario new crop corn $4.04. Like the opening line from Dickens, Tale of Two Cities “it was the best of times, it was the worst of times”, writes Bob Fraser, Sales & Service, Genesus Ontario.

Canada – Sitting on the edge of the Great Divide

Ontario/Canada pork production like the rest of North America looks into the promised land of the prospects of good hog prices coupled with lower feed prices (perhaps substantially lower feed prices) resulting in the type of margins required to begin to heal this industry. Bob Hunsberger, Wallenstein Feed & Supply does an excellent job below of showing what this future vision looks like today.



However as the promised land of old you have to get there and you have to get in! After the trauma and pounding pork producers have experienced the last number of years they perhaps can be forgiven for going to the typical farmer mode of it being “too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry or at a minimum too good to last. To be fair Ontario has perhaps experienced all of that this crop year along with some localized examples of the extreme weather being experienced throughout various parts of the continent.

However from my totally unscientific canvas of the province travelling a significant portion of it the crops look very good. The bulk of the corn is tasseled out right on schedule; the winter wheat harvest is either complete or well advanced. Again right on schedule or certainly not late. Early reports seem to be of average to slightly below average yields with sprouting in the soft white winter wheat and fusarium and toxin challenges in the soft red winter wheat. Disappointing perhaps if you’re dirt farming but as a pork producer may provide added pressure to the downward direction of feed prices as substantial portions of the wheat harvest moves into the feed wheat market.

If we take a look at the OMAFRA Weekly Hog Market Facts compiled by John Bancroft, Market Strategies Program Lead, Stratford OMAFRA john.bancroft@ontario.ca we see a significant and encouraging plumping of margins. However as we look to these hopeful signs we would do well to look to the cautionary tale from the cash crop producers who are looking at a 35% plus “haircut” if supply outstrips demand. This industry should well understand the consequences of even slight oversupply. So as we begin to get bulled up for better days might do well to consider how we all get better before we get bigger!

 

 



Genesus Global Market Report
Prices for the week of July 29, 2013


Country

Domestic price
(own currency)

US dollars
(Liveweight a lb)

USA (Iowa-Minnesota) 1.01 USD/lb carcass 74.45¢
Canada (Ontario) 1.88 CAD/kg carcass 65.47¢
Mexico (DF) 24.50 MXN/kg liveweight 87.66¢
Brazil (South Region) 2.79 BRL/kg liveweight 54.97¢
Russia 74 RUB/kg liveweight $1.02
China 15.32 RMB/kg liveweight $1.14
Spain 1.49 EUR/kg liveweight 89.66¢
Viet Nam 42,000 VND/kg liveweight 90.56¢
South Korea 4,358 KRW/kg liveweight $1.77

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #430 on: August 19, 2013, 09:06:11 AM »

Pork Commentary: Road Trip - Austria
13 August 2013

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


AUSTRIA - This past week we were in Austria - a country of a little over eight million people who have the distinction if not the honour to consume 50kg or about 119 lbs. of pork per capita per year. That is 2.5 times what is eaten in North America, people looked healthy and happy. Is there a magical reason, asks Jim Long.

Austria is German speaking. They quickly pointed this out so that we weren’t confused that Austria is not Australia, so don’t be looking for Kangaroos. We didn’t see any either.

The swine industry of Austria is about 300,000 sows. There is little consolidation with most farms in the 100 sow range. We toured one farm that was 2,500 sows and were told its one of the largest in the country. Of note, where the pigs are is where the corn is grown. The hilly Styria region has corn and pigs everywhere. No chickens. No cattle. Corn and Pigs. The Corn crop didn’t look great as they are suffering from lack of rain and high temperatures. It was deja vu 2012.

Austria has been pushed to new EU Animal welfare laws. Sows after breeding must have the ability to have free movement. It would be good for the idiots from the Humane Society of the United States (HSUS) to go into a free access stall barn. The barn we were in, the sows were lying in the gestation crates (Individual maternity pens) this was by free choice, the open area behind was just that open, the sows preferred the stalls to lying in the open. Kind of funny if it wasn’t so sad that the social engineering from the lawyers at HSUS weren’t so hell bent that we all become vegetarians. That in itself defies all of mankind’s history.

Price of corn in Austria was about $7.00 a bushel (about $300 a tonne), 30 kg feeder pigs were bringing 82 euros or about $110.00. A feeder pig producer told us the current profit was over 20 euros (25+) per feeder pig. He was happy, Market hogs 1.7-1.8 euros per kg which worked out to about $230 for a market hog. They told us many smaller producers have quit in the last year due to two new animal welfare regulations combined with higher feed costs. Producers lost money for several months. Expectations is despite the drought, feed prices will drop significantly at harvest.

When we were in Austria and our hosts took us to a castle that bears the name of my mother’s family. Somehow we had missed out on the noble birth thing before. My mother’s family had to come to America because they were poor. It was more like a “Toyota Corolla” of castles.

Near where the castle was, it was not far from where the Christian armies in the 14th century finally defeated the Islamic Armies of Turks that had been trying to conquer Europe and turn Europe Islamic. Soon after that victory, the Christian armies drove the Islamic Turks back from the rest of Europe. One of our hosts told us (tongue in cheek) that Austria has been eating pork in defiance and celebration ever since 110 lbs. per capita some celebrations.

Austria producers told us their market is mature they don’t expect expansion. Government regulation in animal welfare, environmental, labour challenges, feed costs and the difficulty to get building permits (up to three years) will keep a lid on expansion. On top of this is pigs are concentrated in a small area, PRRS, Mycoplasma and other health issues are typical. Health is constraining productivity.

Some producers told us they expect new hog production might be started in the bordering country of Croatia, now since January 1st official member of the EU. Croatia has land, feed, labour and increasing pork demand. Their Government is supportive of pig production.

We were in Austria on Genesus business. After seeing the quality of breeding stock that the European multinational countries have been shoving on them, we became more encouraged that there is a market for us. The short fat pigs from Holland and the frail from Denmark. Thank God for the competition.

This coming week we will be in the Ukraine and then Russia. We will report our observations.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #431 on: August 26, 2013, 09:38:01 AM »

Pork Commentary: Road Trip to Ukraine
20 August 2013


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


UKRAINE - We continued our road trip that started in Austria with a stop in Ukraine, writes Jim Long.

Ukraine was once considered the bread basket of Europe. Where as in Austria we saw farms of 50 to 100 acres (25-50 hectares). Ukraine is much different with large tracts of land with large fields. The scale is similar to the US Midwest.

Ukraine’s history has not been kind. In the previous 100 plus years, saw communism, world wars and famine ravage. The loss of life in the multiple millions.

With the many calamities the infrastructure of the country was destroyed several times. Its people have had to start over sometimes more than once. The Ukrainian people appear to have strong resolve with a stoic attitude to life’s journey.



The United States has more arable land, men live longer, and income is significantly higher. Ukraine agriculture significantly more important to its economy and employment.

Ukraine does not produce enough pork for consumption of its 45.4 million people. Significant imports are needed. Imports come in the form of meat and pigs. Feeder pigs coming from Europe are costing laid in between $100-120 USD per pig. Slaughter hogs are currently bringing $1.20 USD per lb. liveweight. ($2.65 a kilo).

Wheat is $200/tonne (about $5/bushel)
Corn is $252/tonne (about $6/bushel)
Barley is $221/tonne (about $5.40/bushel)

crop look good but could use rain. Ukrainian hog producers are making money. We met with several who are looking to improve their swine genetics. Also some who have figured out they can produce feeder pigs for $70 or less per head versus buying for $100-120 each.

The challenge in Ukraine is though it’s an agricultural society, it’s very difficult to get farm loans and when you do they are expensive, 13-16% interest. This in itself keeps a lid on pig expansion.

Also the spectre of African Swine Fever (ASF) worries the industry. ASF in Russia is encroaching in on Ukraine. Ukrainian producers fear the spectre of total loss of al pigs with possibly no compensation.

Ukraine has its challenges but also opportunities, caught between the pull of the west and Russia. If it moves to join the European Union the opportunities for agricultural development would be massive. Capital could flow in protected by EU laws. On the flip side Ukrainians are of the same tribe as Russia. They have much in common as Slavic people. Who knows what can happen that can or will ever develop Ukraine’s vast ag potential.

Next week Road trip continues in Russia.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #432 on: September 07, 2013, 10:28:35 PM »

Pork Commentary: Road Trip Russia – Week 3
04 September 2013

Jim Long on ThePigSite

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


RUSSIA - "Last week, our trip continued in Russia continued in the Ural Region of East Central Russia," writes Jim Long.

Meetings were with Government and Private Enterprise. The Ural region we were in was mostly flat except for giant hills created by old coal mines. The Ural Region was the area that has much of Russia’s heavy industry and was the region that was far enough from the German-Russian frontlines to manufacture military hardware during World War II. The Stalin tank was built in large quantities in World War II in this region.

The crops this year weren’t good with small grain yield no more than 40 bushels to an acre due to drought. The region has large scale chicken production and government officials wish to encourage pork production. As one government official told us, Russia is importing half its pork needs. It has no reason not to be self-sufficient, land, grains, capital etc. If Russia’s pork consumption per capita ever got to European levels, Russia would need to add three million sows to be self-sufficient! Almost four times what it is today!

On our trip we visited our customer Ariant. Genesus has delivered Ariant four 747’s of registered purebred breeding stock with four more to go. It is the largest single order from North America ever to Russia. Ariant currently has swine production, slaughter plants and 350 retail stores focused on pork sales (They also sell and produce wine, they own 70 per cent of all grape vineyards in Russia).

Currently there are new swine farms under construction and new slaughter and processing plant and more company retail stores. It’s a real farm to fork enterprise and they recognize that building a premium brand takes world class swine production and superior meat quality. A brand based on real quality not just a story. We are proud that Ariant after scouring the world to find the best genetics for their farm to fork program chose Genesus to provide their breeding stock and service package. It’s an exciting time being pork of an energetic visionary project based on results.

While we were in the Urals, we met senior government officials and an agreement in principle was reached with Genesus, Ariant and the Government of Chelyabinsk to work together to develop a Swine Genetic Center to accelerate the genetic technology of the region and Russia.

The Government of Chelyabinsk is quite aggressive in the pursuit of Agricultural development and sees the region from the historical perspective of being on the legendary 'Silk Road' that linked China to Europe. They see the opportunity for trade east and west and recognise the need for the world to double food production by 2050 and wants to be part of the opportunity and solutions.

Have to say quite the adventure for a boy who grew up on a 10 acre farm. It’s a big world, added Mr Long.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #433 on: October 02, 2013, 02:24:52 AM »

Canada: Hog Markets
26 September 2013
Genesus - The first power in genetics

CANADA - Excerpts from this week’s Globe & Mail (Canada’s major national newspaper). By Jeff Rubin - a former chief economist of CIBC World Markets and the author of the award-winning Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller as well as The End of Growth, writes Bob Fraser from Sales & Service at Genesus Ontario.

“Buy land, advised Mark Twain, because, as the punch line goes, they ain’t making any more of it. Fast forward to 2013 and that advice, as a look at prices for farmland shows, seems as prescient as ever.

The hottest sector of the country’s real estate market is, you guessed it, farmland. The price of farmland in Canada has outpaced both residential and commercial real estate, gaining an average of 12 per cent over the last five years. In some hotspots, such as southwestern Ontario, the price-per-acre has been going up by as much as 50 per cent a year. Even pension plans and hedge funds have become players in the pursuit of prime agricultural land, interest that is only sending prices that much higher.”

Further from Ontario Farmer (Ontario’s major weekly farm publication) By Anne Howden Thompson –
“Peak commodity values and low interest rates prompted an “unprecedented” farmland demand over the last 12 months, generating “serious year-over-year increases in most rural communities” according to The RE/MAX Market Trends Report: Farm Edition 2013 released last week. The report examines market prices across 17 markets in Canada and indicates bare land continues to generate the greatest demand, with tiled and irrigated speciality cropland “fetching top dollar”. Some examples:

Northern Saskatchewan 2013 land price $1500 to $2000 per acre up from 2012 range of $800 to $1500


Central Alberta 2013 land price $3,400 to $6,500 per acre up from 2012 range of $2000 to $4,500


Ontario (London St. Thomas market) 2013 land price $12,000 per acre up from 2012 price of $7,500


Ontario (Kitchener-Waterloo market) 2013 land price $15,000 to $18,000 per acre up from 2012 range of $11,000 to $15,000”The two quoted Ontario markets are where the bulk of the Ontario pork production is raised and although I appreciate you “can’t eat equity” has done much to sustain Ontario pork producers (the majority who are land based) through the challenges and pressures of the last number of years.


The interesting thing now will be where to from here. Crop producers have had a nice run the last few years but pork producers perhaps better than any agriculture producers understand “that the market giveth and the market taketh away” and everyone gets there “turn in the barrel”. Crop producer’s turn may be coming up.

I believe there is an adage in the US that when some event/phenomenon makes the cover of Time Magazine it’s over and time to sell. The thinking being once something is “common knowledge” to the “common man” the thing being discussed has passed. Will this prove to be the case with farmland? Like everything time will tell, but in the commodity business and in the end land is just another commodity, thinking any commodity can only go one direction being it up or down, usually ultimately proves dangerous.

In my last column 2 months ago I suggested we were on the edge of profitability and producers were wondering if it was going to be like so many times before, fleeting. “Ontario/Canada pork production like the rest of North America looks into the promised land of the prospects of good hog prices coupled with lower feed prices (perhaps substantially lower feed prices) resulting in the type of margins required to begin to heal this industry.”

Well, if we take a look at the OMAFRA Weekly Hog Market Facts compiled by John Bancroft, Market Strategies Program Lead, Stratford OMAFRA john.bancroft@ontario.ca we see a significant and encouraging plumping of margins continuing and with the base market hog price (100% Formula Price) an amazing $60 over the same week a year ago heading towards the fourth quarter and corn & SBM falling like a stone probably fair to say “we have something different going on”.



 



Genesus Global Market Report
Prices for the week of September 16, 2013


Country

Domestic price
(own currency)

US dollars
(Liveweight a lb)

USA (Iowa-Minnesota) 93.750 USD/lb carcass 69.38¢
Canada (Ontario) 180.320 CAD/kg carcass 63.53¢
Mexico (DF) 22.630 MXN/kg liveweight 79.36¢
Brazil (South Region) 3.490 BRL/kg liveweight 71.34¢
Russia 76.000 RUB/kg liveweight $1.07
China 16.060 RMB/kg liveweight 90.08¢
Spain 44000 EUR/kg liveweight 94.64¢
Viet Nam 41,000 VND/kg liveweight 87.76¢
South Korea 4,971 KRW/kg liveweight $1.97

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Re: Canadian Pork Producers:
« Reply #434 on: October 05, 2013, 11:56:06 PM »

Date Set for Mandatory Traceability in Canada
04 October 2013
Alberta Pork
CANADA - The Government of Canada and the Canadian Pork Council (CPC) have agreed that mandatory requirements for the PigTrace Canada programme will take effect on 1 July 2014.

Federal regulation of PigTrace Canada, the national swine traceability system, is an important step towards building an effective programme that responds to disease outbreaks and food safety emergencies.

Since proposed amendments to the Health of Animals Regulations were published by the Government of Canada during the summer of 2012, the CPC and its provincial partners have worked with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) on an appropriate timeline to implement the traceability programme and make it mandatory under federal law. 1 July 2014 sets a reasonable timeframe to allow the CPC and its provincial member organizations to continue to grow the programme.

For producers in Alberta, as long as they continue to comply with the Alberta Swine Traceability regulations, they will also meet the federal requirements.

 

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