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Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #585 on: July 21, 2014, 12:32:40 AM »

Hog Futures: August Lean Hogs Closed Down Wednesday
17 July 2014

Jim Wyckoff Commentary - TheCropSite


US - August lean hogs closed down $0.15 at $130.57 Wednesday.

Prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading. The hog bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $133.37.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $126.62.

First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $131.22 and then at $132.00. First support is seen at $130.00 and then at this week’s low of $129.22. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0


Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #586 on: July 24, 2014, 11:04:31 AM »

Pork Commentary: National Pork Industry Conference Report
22 July 2014

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


US - Last week we attended the National Pork Industry Conference held at the Kalahari Resort, Wisconsin Dells, Wisconsin, writes Jim Long.

Our report:
•Conference was well attended with registrants over 800. A record number.


•The Kalahari Resort with its waterpark and other family activities appears to be a magnet for many attendees to bring their families for a mini – vacation. The Wisconsin Dells has many family activities and claims to be the Waterpark Capital of the world.


•The conference was well organized with all meals and talks run efficiently and on time.


•Genesus was a major sponsor of the conference. On the Sunday night Genesus hosted a reception with over 300 attendees. In the breakout sessions we spoke on our perspective on Global Swine Markets and how they are affecting the US market. Robert Kemp PHD Genesus Vice President gave a genetic update on Genesus R & D projects.


•Like all conferences some speakers were stronger than others. Someday we would hope more people who actually own and run swine operations get to speak. Too many conferences have experts telling us what we should do but few of these speakers have their own skin in the game. There are great entrepreneurial success stories in our industry, they are real and inspirational. I remember hearing Mr. Bill Prestage – Heritage Farms speak at the Michigan Pork Congress 25 years ago. We got lots out of that and obviously we still remember.


•We have to mention the mood of attendees – Excellent! $100 per head profits, the best ever has certainly been great for attitude.


•Talking to many attendees and listening to speakers all see the US corn and soybean crop in great shape. One speaker, Joe Kern expressed the opinion that corn could go as low as $2.50 a bushel and soymeal $250 per ton. A long way from the $7.00 a bushel corn we had a year ago. The potential of further collapse of corn and soymeal prices will be extremely enhancing for hog profit margins.


•It appears to us that PED is slowing down. We don’t hear antidotal reports from our salesmen for the last two plus months. A leading swine vet from Minnesota told the conference that their swine vet clinic of 11 vets has not seen a new PED break since mid-April. If PED has slowed down in May and beyond it is likely US hog marketings could be close to a year ago November on. Wildcard will cool weather in the fall and winter lead to an expansion of new breaks. We expect there will be far fewer pig losses from PED going forward.


•The vet in charge of USDA’s new PED mandatory reporting spoke at the conference. Our sense most producers don’t trust the USDA in the way they were looking at him when he spoke. We expect PED will not be reported to a full extent going forward. At this point USDA is not sure how PED got to the US. He thinks maybe a human nasal passage?


•There were speakers at the conference on how to get to 40 pigs a year. It’s a big push to get there, you need the 24/7 execution of basics from a dedicated workforce and the genetics capacity. Genesus customer Rosedale Farming Co. Ltd topped Swine Marketing Systems 1,277,500 females with 41.1 total born per mated female per year for calendar year 2013. That’s over 40 and it’s the No.1 herd out of over a million females.


•We sense from the conference there are efforts to expand the sow herd. We are being approached and were in discussions at the conference with people wishing to fill existing sow units and build new ones. Not much happening yet but there are efforts underway. We believe as we wrote several times before. Sow herd expansion has been next to non – existent. Reasons: Equity hole, labor issues, PED not only lost pigs but when in crisis it’s hard to be expanding! Many problems in the first 6 months this year’s profits were limited due to hedging plus they had margin calls. Also, in new sow units, banks are looking for up to 60 per cent real equity in financing. All above keeping a lid on expansion.


•Last week we wrote about the huge sow herd liquidation in China due to financial losses per head of up to $80. This past week China released new inventory numbers. The sow herd has dropped 8.2 per cent in the past year (4 million sows) and market inventory down 4.8 per cent (21 million hogs). It will take a while to get the full impact of the liquidation with about 1.5 million sows of the 4 million sows taken out in April – May. When it does kick in farmer arithmetic 4 million sown times 13 hogs per sow per year = 52 million market hogs. About one million hogs less per week half of US weekly production. Let’s assume the US could capture 10 – 20 per cent of the market hog shortfall. That’s the equivalent of 100,000 – 200, 000 hogs per week for export. Market Game Changer. About the time PED slows down in the US and production is coming back we expect China exports to be real strong. This is the floor to US prices.


Some China numbers relative to US.

If you look at costs, productivity, and market prices. Feed. While the US industry at 97 cents a pound can make $100 per head, China feed costs are about $100 head more and productivity less. US industry at 97 per pound have its greatest profits in history while China losses money at the same price. When China’s 4 million sow liquidation kicks in, China’s hog price will soar and pull US pork. Chinese interests didn’t buy Smithfield Foods to produce pork for the US consumer only. China’s interests purchase of Smithfield also goes a long way to insuring market access for US pork.

Summary

National Pork Industry Conference was well attended, well organized, and we learned a lot. We see the beginning of sow herd expansion, PED has slowed down at least for now. Exports to China are the game changer late 2014 – 2015.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics


Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #587 on: August 02, 2014, 11:37:53 PM »
News


Jim Wyckoff: October Lean Hogs Closed Down on Wednesday
31 July 2014

Jim Wyckoff Commentary


US - October lean hogs closed down $2.27 at $103.80 Wednesday.

Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a three-month low today. A steep three-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

Bears have the near-term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum today. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $108.00.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $101.00. First resistance is seen at $105.00 and then at $106.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $103.07 and then at $102.50.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #588 on: August 10, 2014, 05:43:32 AM »

Pork Commentary: US Hog Market Retracts
06 August 2014

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


US - In the last week cash US lean hog prices declined from 130.19 to 125.17, a drop of over $10 per head. It appears to us that some people’s notion that lean hogs would reach $1.40 this summer will not happen. With that said $125.17 is still in historical uncharted waters with profits approaching $100 per head, writes Jim Long for Pork Commentary.

At the National Pork Industry Conference Wisconsin a commentary reader came up to me and put their hand on my forehead. He wanted to know if I had a fever! Why? In his mind my commentaries recently had not been overly bullish.

My answer “How do you get bullish with $1.30 lean hogs? There is nowhere to go but down from here.”

Reality is that if we look out at current lean hog futures and where feed costs should be the next twelve months we will be very profitable. Market hogs bringing about $200 per head average, feed costs farrow to finish $90, other farrow to finish costs $50, we end up around $60 per head profit.Never been better.

It the US markets 110 million hogs, a potential industry profit of $6.5 billion. Then at that point the industry won’t be able to stand too much of a good thing and expansion and we expect PEDV outbreak declines will put the industry in the red by 2016.

Hope we are wrong but we believe in the theory “History repeats itself” and “Cheap feed leads to cheap hogs!” and we don’t believe in “this time it will be different!”

Demand

Although market hog numbers have declined significantly the real miracle is that the US hog price is $55 per head higher than a year ago with less than 2 per cent pork due to carcass weights almost 5 per cent higher than a year ago.

A year ago to suggest we would have hog prices $55 per head higher with only 2 per cent less pork would have led to howls of laughter, but is has happened. Record cattle prices and no more chicken has sustained a hog price beyond historical comprehension. Pork exports have stayed strong in the face of higher hogs mainly due to even higher hog prices in the importing countries.

Cattle

Going forward it is our belief that the cattle industry will never recover its cow numbers. The best pasture land has been ploughed up to grow grains with the fences torn down. It will not be going back in pasture.

The long-term drought in much of pastureland of the South-West US is not dissipating. The economics of holding back heifers worth around $1500 to hope to get a calf two years later will take capital and courage. Who has both? Also cow – calf is not conducive to scale with its intensive labour and costs, who’s going to do it? Most cow – calf operations are in their 60’s.

Where’s the next generation of cow – calf operators coming from? Going forward we believe North America’s cattle industry will continue to contract. The opportunity for the swine industry is positive our product as the other red meat.

To do that we must become less obsessed on lean but on eating qualities of taste and flavour. Our demand and price opportunity is growing per capita consumption. We must look at the pork cuts that have the highest prices. Bellies? Ribs? Shoulder? In any carcass they are not the leanest by any measure.

Consumers talk lean but buy taste and flavour. We have made a mistake chasing lean and our per capita consumption has declined over the last twenty years as has our meat protein market share. We have the opportunity to grow our business with demand with swine genetics that are available to push flavour, taste, and tenderness consumers ultimately are paying for.

To accomplish this we have to stop being farmers and become marketers producing products that consumers want to buy more often.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #589 on: August 18, 2014, 12:27:18 AM »

Pork Producers Calls for End to Japan Gate Price On Pork
15 August 2014

US - The National Pork Producers Council has sent a letter to top Obama administration trade officials detailing the reasons why US negotiators on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) should insist that Japan eliminate its so-called Gate Price on US pork.

The TPP is a regional negotiation that includes the United States, Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam, which account for nearly 40 per cent of global GDP.

NPPC told Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and US Trade Representative Michael Froman that the Gate Price has associated with it a long history of fraud and criminal activity, and it discriminates against Japanese consumers by putting upward pressure on food prices and has prompted Japanese meat processing companies to move their factories to other Asian nations, costing the country much-needed jobs.

The byzantine system also may violate Japan’s constitution, which requires that obligations contained in treaties be given legal precedence over domestic laws. Japan considers the World Trade Organisation’s “Marrakesh Agreement,” which established existing WTO rules, as a treaty.

"Several plaintiffs, including a former Japanese government official, are arguing that the Gate Price violates provisions of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture, which prohibit the use of variable import levies, and, therefore, is in violation of the country’s constitution.

"Pork producers’ support for a final TPP Agreement is conditioned on the elimination of all tariff and non-tariff barriers to US pork exports in each of the TPP nations, including the elimination of the Gate Price in Japan,” said NPPC President Howard Hill, a veterinarian and pork producer from Cambridge, Iowa.

In the TPP negotiations, Japan is demanding special treatment for its agricultural sector, including exempting pork and other “sensitive” products from tariff elimination and maintaining the Gate Price on pork.

“While Japan’s current TPP offer on pork, if implemented, might allow a modest increase in US pork exports to that country,” Mr Hill said: “it would rob the US pork industry of hundreds of millions of dollars in annual pork exports to Japan and would stymie the creation of thousands of US jobs that the industry would realise if the Gate Price and tariffs on pork were eliminated.

"Further, the disposition of this issue will impact our producers for the next 25 years, setting a precedent for future US free trade agreements.”

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #590 on: August 24, 2014, 09:26:20 AM »

Could PEDv Become Airborne?
22 August 2014

US - Airborne transmission should be considered as a potential route for Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) dissemination as infectious PEDV was detected in the air 10 miles downwind from infected farms.

In a study published by Veterinary Research, Alonso, DP Goede, RB Morrison, PR Davies, A Rovira, DG Marthaler, and M Torremorell, assessed whether PEDV could become airborne and if so, whether the virus was infectious.

Air samples were collected both from a room containing experimentally infected pigs and at various distances from the outside of swine farms experiencing acute PEDV outbreaks.

Results indicated presence of infectious PEDV in the air from experimentally infected pigs and genetic material of PEDV was detected up to 10 miles downwind from naturally infected farms.

Airborne transmission should be considered as a potential route for PEDV dissemination.

PEDV has spread rapidly after being diagnosed in the USA in April 2013.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #591 on: September 01, 2014, 12:43:41 AM »

Swine-to-Human Transmission of Influenza A(H3N2) Virus at Fairs
28 August 2014

US - Comparison of genome sequences of the subtype H3N2 isolates recovered from humans and swine from US pig fairs revealed nucleotide identities of more than 99.7 per cent, confirming zoonotic transmission between swine and humans.

Agricultural fairs provide an opportunity for bidirectional transmission of influenza A viruses, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

A research project by A. Bowman et al. sought to determine influenza A virus activity among swine at fairs in the United States.

As part of an ongoing active influenza A virus surveillance project, nasal swab samples were collected from exhibition swine at 40 selected Ohio agricultural fairs during 2012.

Influenza A(H3N2) virus was isolated from swine at 10 of the fairs. According to a concurrent public health investigation, seven of the 10 fairs were epidemiologically linked to confirmed human infections with influenza A(H3N2) variant virus.

Comparison of genome sequences of the subtype H3N2 isolates recovered from humans and swine from each fair revealed nucleotide identities of more than 99.7 per cent, confirming zoonotic transmission between swine and humans.

All influenza A(H3N2) viruses isolated in this study, regardless of host species or fair, were more than 99.5 per cent identical, indicating that one virus strain was widely circulating among exhibition swine in Ohio during 2012.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #592 on: October 05, 2014, 09:07:27 AM »
Pork Commentary: USDA September 1 Hogs and Pigs Report
02 October 2014

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
US - Last Friday the USDA released the September 1st Hogs and Pigs Report.

Our Observations
No question the breeding herd is expanding. June 1st breeding inventory was 5.855 million, on September 1st 5.920 million. Up 65 thousand in 13 weeks or up 5 thousand a week. Year over year the breeding herd is up about 100 thousand. About 2% more sows certainly no doubt gives 2% more production going forward. Our sense is if we gained 5,000 sows a week through the summer, the same pace will be maintained currently. Take home message – Despite PED issues, recorded profits are leading to more sows in production. We expect much of expansion has been facilities moving to maximum capacity.
3% less market hogs average for the next 6 months will be positive for hog prices. We expect lean hog prices to run 5% plus average over last year in the same time frame.
Despite 2% more breeding sows in inventory, the June – August Pig Crop was 1% smaller than last year. We expect a big part of that is PED mortality issues that were greater this summer than last.
Expected farrowings projected in September - November 4% higher than last year with 2% more sows? We believe the 4% number is producer wishful thinking.
Where has expansion of the breeding herd been over the last year?
As you can see, the expansion of the breeding herd was in many States but with Missouri and Iowa leading the way with 70,000 combined. At one point North Carolina had over one million sows, they are now down to 870,000.

Summary
Breeding herd is expanding, by next summer we will have more hogs unless PED hits harder than last year, which we doubt. Feed prices and profit margins will encourage further sow herd expansion and continued heavy carcass weights. We expect hog prices to stay strong due to the continued support from historically low beef supplies. We believe that the wildcard is the four million sow liquidation that happened in China over the last year. We expect by the first of 2015 China’s hog prices will explode higher and this will lead to significant pork exports from North America. When we look at the US expansion of 100,000 sows over the last year that pales to the 4 million plus liquidation in China. 2015 will be quite profitable for US producers.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #593 on: October 13, 2014, 01:40:44 AM »
 USDA September 1 Hogs and Pigs Report
02 October 2014Jim Long

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.
US - Last Friday the USDA released the September 1st Hogs and Pigs Report.

Our Observations
No question the breeding herd is expanding. June 1st breeding inventory was 5.855 million, on September 1st 5.920 million. Up 65 thousand in 13 weeks or up 5 thousand a week. Year over year the breeding herd is up about 100 thousand. About 2% more sows certainly no doubt gives 2% more production going forward. Our sense is if we gained 5,000 sows a week through the summer, the same pace will be maintained currently. Take home message – Despite PED issues, recorded profits are leading to more sows in production. We expect much of expansion has been facilities moving to maximum capacity.
3% less market hogs average for the next 6 months will be positive for hog prices. We expect lean hog prices to run 5% plus average over last year in the same time frame.
Despite 2% more breeding sows in inventory, the June – August Pig Crop was 1% smaller than last year. We expect a big part of that is PED mortality issues that were greater this summer than last.
Expected farrowings projected in September - November 4% higher than last year with 2% more sows? We believe the 4% number is producer wishful thinking.
Where has expansion of the breeding herd been over the last year?
As you can see, the expansion of the breeding herd was in many States but with Missouri and Iowa leading the way with 70,000 combined. At one point North Carolina had over one million sows, they are now down to 870,000.

Summary
Breeding herd is expanding, by next summer we will have more hogs unless PED hits harder than last year, which we doubt. Feed prices and profit margins will encourage further sow herd expansion and continued heavy carcass weights. We expect hog prices to stay strong due to the continued support from historically low beef supplies. We believe that the wildcard is the four million sow liquidation that happened in China over the last year. We expect by the first of 2015 China’s hog prices will explode higher and this will lead to significant pork exports from North America. When we look at the US expansion of 100,000 sows over the last year that pales to the 4 million plus liquidation in China. 2015 will be quite profitable for US producers.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #594 on: October 27, 2014, 05:22:11 AM »
Insect Meal Could be the Future of Animal Feed 24 October 2014

US - As demand for meat, milk and dairy products grows, the issue of what to feed livestock becomes more critical because of the limited availability of natural resources, ongoing climate change issues and competition between human food, animal feed and biofuel for land and water.

Insect meals may be part of the solution, according to a new FAO study published in the latest issue of the scientific journal Animal Feed Science and Technology.

Livestock production is resource hungry: it occupies 75 per cent of all agricultural land, including crop and pasture land, and consumes eight per cent of global human water use, mainly for the irrigation of feed crops.

FAO and the Association Française de Zootechnie in Paris have conducted a review of hundreds of scientific studies on the potential use of insects as animal feed, a field that is still in its infancy.

The review covers five major groups of insects – black solider fly, the house fly, mealworm beetles, locusts, grasshoppers and crickets, and silkworms – and their distribution, rearing, environmental impact, nutritional attributes, constraints and their potential use as alternate feed.

“A quest for new sources of feed for livestock is a must,” said the study’s lead author Harinder Makkar, Animal Production Officer in the FAO Animal Production and Health Division. “This review of the literature is valuable because it is expected to open new areas for research and new avenues for large-scale use of insect products as animal feed.”

“Insects have many advantages over other feeds,” he added. “They grow and reproduce easily, have high feed conversion efficiency since they are cold blooded and can be reared on bio-waste. One kilo of insect biomass can be produced from around 2 kilos of waste.”

Nutritional Content
The crude protein content of the insects studied is 42-63 per cent and oil content up to 36 per cent. Some of the literature shows that insect meals, when added to animal feed, can replace 25 to 100 per cent of soymeal or fishmeal in the feed, depending on the animal species.

Mr Makkar noted that fishmeal production is no longer rising as oceans reach their harvest limits, and that sources of soy for cattle feed are also limited.

Some insect meals do not contain all nutrients in sufficient amounts needed by the livestock, for example, calcium, which is needed by growing animals and laying hens. Essential amino acids such as lysine and methionine are also deficient in some insect meals. Such nutrients would have to be added to the feed. Alternatively an “ideal” protein meal for livestock diets can be prepared by mixing meals from different insect species.

Other issues such as the contamination of feed by pathogens, pesticides, mycotoxins or heavy metals such as lead in the insects will have to be addressed.

Tests have found that pigs, poultry and fish will eat feed that contains insect meal from the five insect groups mentioned above. The rest of the feed is composed of carbohydrates including grains or agroindustrial byproducts like cassava residue or molasses.

In the case of feed suitable for ruminants like cattle, the scientific literature appeared to have only studied silkworm meal, which it found contained valuable protein and amino acids.
There are economic spinoffs from insect-based feed production. For low-oil feed, the unwanted oil in the insect meal could be extracted and used for

 

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