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Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #570 on: March 18, 2014, 04:31:23 AM »

Pork Commentary: Hog Market Not Hot, It’s an Inferno!
11 March 2014



Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


US - Last fall when we predicted the U.S. lean hogs would reach $1.10 (at the time summer lean hog futures were $90). We contemplated if lean hogs would reach $1.20. We thought there was a chance but to be honest we thought it was beyond crazy to think it could happen, writes Jim Long, President-CEO Genesus Inc.

Well we were wrong, we weren’t bullish enough. June closed at $120.50 last Friday. The lack of sow herd expansion, and lower beef supply all compounded by at least 5 million pigs dying of PED has to the opportunity of profits of $100 per head this summer. This is truly the Year of The Pig Farmer. It’s a red hot inferno!

The Pig Farmers that stuck it out and believed when the banker didn’t, the wife wondered, the children thought crops were more golden have the chance of a generation to bury debt and replenish equity. We salute all the survivors who hung in when there were many doubters.

Other Observations
•U.S. hog marketing’s last week were estimated a 2.072 million down 120,000 from the same week a year ago.
•U.S. cattle marketing numbers last week 548,000 down 50,000 from the same week a year ago.
•Put the cattle and hog numbers together and we end up with millions of lbs less red meat year over year. Less meat will always lead to higher prices.
•DTN –Agdayter Feeder Pig Livestock Margin calculates you can pay $113 for a 45 lb. pig marketed in July.
•Last Thursday 53 – 54% U.S. lean hogs were $102.97 a lb. A year ago $76.41. Almost $60 more per head year over year.
•Last week’s U.S.D.A. cash early wean price was $88.87 and 40 lb. feeder pigs $114.03 (very close to the $113 DTN calculates can be paid).

Travel

This coming week we will be in Denmark, Germany, and Italy. We will write some observations in the next commentary.

Choice Genetics USA Bankruptcy

The Choice Genetics LLC USA bankruptcy continues with $21.8 million in debts, with $14 million due to unsecured creditors, and $486,000 in assets. Where this shakes out is anyone’s guess but it’s hard to spin this as a small blip and business as usual. We are aware of producers taking other roads for genetic supply. Why wouldn’t they – a bankrupt company? Warranties? Service? Supply? Genetic Development? It will be interesting to see if Group Grimaud the French owners of Choice Genetics will make good to the U.S. creditors or put up a white flag?

Hog Market

We are not sure there is much further upside to the summer market. Already we are at the highest prices in history. One of the downsides (if there is) of this market is the margin calls producers who have hedged more had to cower. We expect there has been $10’s of millions in margin calls. Some leaders have been quite aggressive in pushing producers to hedge, hopefully they will continue to finance the strategy they encouraged and to some extent mandated.

Sow herd expansion we think has not happened to a great extent. Some empty sow units are being restocked in USA – Canada. We guess 20 – 30,000 sows in this group. We do not believe many more sow units are being built. PED has had all of the top 25 largest producers in the U.S. This in itself has created a significant amount of time and energy to manage. It is a crisis scenario. A scenario that doesn’t lead to real expansion.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics


Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #571 on: March 19, 2014, 02:40:30 AM »

Pork Commentary: All Superlatives Are Understatements in Hog Market
18 March 2014

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


US - We have run out of superlatives to describe the US hog market. Prices have risen not only rapidly but to unpredicted high levels, writes Jim Long, President-CEO of Genesus Inc.
•The U.S. National Average Lean Price last Friday averaged $114.4. The highest in history.
•U.S.D.A. Carcass cut outs last Thursday were $124.75. The highest in history.
•U.S. hog marketings last week were down from a year ago 8%. 2014 - 2.024 million; 2013 - 2194 million. We estimate we are marketing hogs born in September 2013. September was the front end of the intensification of PED breaks in the U.S. We expect the mortality in September of little pigs is the major reason hog numbers are down.
•The 2,024 million last week hogs marketed in the U.S. is more like a weekly marketing number in the summer. A 2,024 million hog marketed number would in a normal year not bring $114 hogs; more like 1.00. The hog market at $114 in our opinion is anticipating even further cuts in supply due to PED and there is a premium in cash prices as packers, retailers and processors chase product. If we are 2,024 million head in March we now expect weekly marketings in the summer months due to PED and seasonality to be around 1.8 million head. If this is the case $120 plus market hogs are a firm reality.
•Magnifying the effect of fewer hogs is the giant decrease in U.S. beef supply. Last week the U.S. marketed 564,000 cattle; a year ago same week 599,000. A 10% drop.
•Cowboy Arithmetic. Last week the U.S. marketed 170,000 fewer hogs than the same week a year ago multiply by 210 lbs carcass weight = 36 million lbs of pork. Last week the U.S marketed 35,000 fewer cattle multiply by 800 lbs carcass weight = 28 million lbs less beef. Add the year over year red meat decline 36 pork plus 28 million lbs of beef = approx. 64 million lbs less red meat year over year. Put in another way 400 plus tractor trailers at 70,000 lbs of red meat per trailer. Imagine 400 tractor trailers stretching in a line 12 miles and that’s how much less red meat was in the U.S. last week, now start putting the 12 miles of tractor trailers week after week together. Is there any surprise hog and cattle prices exploded?!If you’re wondering if chicken will fill the void. Last week egg sets and chicken placed were each up 1% year over year. U.S. human population increases over 1% per year. Chicken isn’t close to filling the 900 tractor trailers to make up the red meat deficit.

Exports

When we look at Global Hog Prices we see some headwinds for pork exports to China. Currently the U.S. hog price is about the same as China’s. This will curb pork exports to China. Brazil is now about 20?/lb. U.S. live weight fewer than the U.S. price. Brazil will capture some of China’s market. The E.U. will move pork into China also, especially with Russia closed to them. Currently the U.S. price is lower than Mexico, South Korea, and Japan’s prices. We expect exports will continue well in these areas.

The fact is with probably an 8 – 10% drop in pork supply there is less pork to go around. We will obviously have less domestic consumption and lower exports. You can’t eat what isn’t there! We will find out who wants the pork more, our guess exports will drop at a high percentage than domestic consumption.

Road Trip

Last week we were in Denmark, Germany, and Italy. The European (E.U.) hog market is reeling from being cut off from Russia to sell both live hogs and pork. African Swine Fever found in Poland has been the trigger to close the Russian border to E.U. pork and hogs. Now geopolitical issues over Ukraine will probably keep the border closed longer.

Denmark’s (Danbred) breeding industry is reeling. They have had the ability to truck breeding stock to Russia and it has been an excellent market for them. Now genetic orders are being cancelled and pigs destined for Russian farms are going to the slaughter markets. Losing the Russian market and the North American market in the last few months (USA – Canada Franchise quit) will put a crimp on Danbred’s goal to be the dominant global swine genetic company. Throw in France’s Grimaud Groupe – Choice Genetics USA LLC going bankrupt and PICs purchase of Genetiporc. You have Global Swine Genetic businesses having rapidly changing events and dynamics.

In Italy on our visit we saw the effect of different pork markets. Italian Parma Hams retail for about $16 U.S. per lb. Hams are the main pork driven in Italy. Contrast to the U.S., pork cut outs last week, Loins $1.72/lb.; Bellies $2.11/lb., Hams $1.68/lb. Hams are premium in Italy. Ham is far from that in the U.S. market.

Summary

Hog market hotter than hot. In the coming months we will see record profits for those who didn’t hedge and gotten hit by margin calls. Goes to show no fool proof strategy.
Bottom-line we are on quite a ride!!


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics


Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #572 on: March 23, 2014, 10:25:02 AM »

Hog Futures: Lean Hogs Closed Down on Thursday
21 March 2014

Jim Wyckoff Commentary


US - June lean hogs closed down $1.45 at $130.80 Thursday. Prices closed near the session low on more profit taking after hitting a contract and all-time record high Tuesday.

This market is still in a parabolic stage, which suggests, from a time perspective, that a market top is close at hand. There are still very bullish cash hog market fundamentals at work. Hog futures bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a steep two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $133.40. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $127.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $131.35 and then at $132.00. First support is seen at $130.00 and then at $129.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

June live cattle closed down $2.27 at $136.00 Thursday. Prices closed near the session low and scored a big and bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart, which is also a bearish “key reversal” down. Heavy profit taking was featured today. Prices early on today poked to a fresh contract high. Today’s price action is an early technical clue that a market top is in place. But right now the bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price “breakout” objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at today’s contract high of $138.75. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $134.00. First resistance is seen at $136.50 and then at $137.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $136.00 and then at $135.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

May feeder cattle closed down $2.40 at $176.17 Thursday. Prices backed way off on profit taking. Follow-through selling pressure on Friday would begin to suggest a market top is in place. But right now the feeder bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of $178.85. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $174.00. First resistance is seen at $177.00 and then at $177.50. First support is seen at $176.00 and then at $175.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5



IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #573 on: April 05, 2014, 07:50:01 AM »

Pork Commentary: USA - 1 March Hog and Pigs Report
01 April 2014
 

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


US - The USDA released the 1 March "Hogs and Pigs" report last Friday, writes Jim Long.

Our Observations
•Hogs and Pigs Inventory lowest since 2007
•Litter size lowest since 2009
•Quarterly Pig Crop lowest since 2007
•No question PED has hit the industry
•2.2 million fewer market hogs – or about 100,000 fewer per week
•We expect the market will be slightly lower than USDA data would indicate. We believe PED will cut marketings about 6 million market hogs this calendar year or about 120,000 per week compared to 2013.
•We calculate that about 4 – 4.5 million sows will have had and will get PED with an average loss of 2,000 pigs per 1,000 sows, we calculate this is 8 – 9 million pigs. We expect productivity increases will add about 2 million head per year. 8 -9 million dead plus 2 million head productivity increase. Net 6 -7 million fewer market hogs in 2014 or about 120,000 fewer market hogs per week on average compared to 2013. We cannot comprehend any significant upside to current lean hog future prices.
•The 1 March US breeding herd showed an increase of almost 100,000 since 1 December. That’s an increase of almost 8,000 a week. Where did it come from?



We are having a hard time believing the US breeding herd grew this much in 13 weeks. Most production systems have been in crisis made due to PED. Who expands in a crisis? 40,000 in Iowa? Time will tell but it doesn’t make sense to us, especially as we observe the breeding stock sales and buying pattern of producers.



Summary

Hogs and Pigs report shows the lowest market inventory in seven years. PED is the reason there will be significantly fewer pigs. Rabobank has predicted PED losses of 12.5 - 15 million pigs in the US industry in 2014. We think the production is too high. Enjoy the lean hog prices over $120, pay down bills and set aside cash. We expect when PED is over and we do anticipate it will be next to over by this fall, we will have a major upswing in market hog numbers and hog prices will drop.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #574 on: April 19, 2014, 08:56:36 AM »

Wyckoff's Closing Hog Market: Hogs Close Higher Thursday
18 April 2014

Jim Wyckoff Commentary


ANALYSIS - June CME lean hogs closed up $1.12 at $124.90 Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session high, hit a two-week high and closed at a bullish weekly high close today.

The bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Look for more high volatility in this market in the near term. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $128.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $120.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $125.45 and then at $126.00. First support is seen at $124.00 and then at today’s low of $123.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

CME May corn futures closed down 4 cents at $4.93 1/2 Thursday. Prices closed near the session low today, closed at a two-week low close and closed at a bearish weekly low close. Corn prices are still in a 13-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Corn bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $5.13. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $4.85. First resistance for May corn is seen at $5.00 and then at $5.05. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.93 1/4 and then at $4.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

May soybeans closed down 8 cents at $15.10 3/4 a bushel Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking after hitting another fresh contract high early on. The soybean bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an 11-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $15.50 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $14.60. First resistance is seen at $15.22 3/4 and then at today’s contract high of $15.31 3/4. First support is seen at $15.00 and then at $14.90 Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May soybean meal closed down $2.80 at $488.20 Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking after hitting another contract high early on. Strong follow-through selling pressure on Monday would confirm a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart, which would then be an early clue that a market top is in place. But right now the soybean meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $500.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $472.00. First resistance comes in at $490.90 and then at today’s contract high of $495.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $484.60 and then at $482.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

May bean oil closed down 30 points at 43.41 cents Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range and saw profit taking from recent solid gains. The bean oil bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. A steep three-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 45.05 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 42.04 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 43.74 cents and then at 44.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 43.20 cents and then at 43.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 2 3/4 cents at $6.90 3/4 Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid choppy trading. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $7.23 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.56 1/4. First resistance is seen at $7.00 and then at this week’s high of $7.11. First support lies at $6.84 and then at $6.73 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

May HRW wheat closed up 3 1/4 cents at $7.57 3/4 Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low. The wheat bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $7.99. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $7.17. First resistance is seen at $7.66 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $7.74 1/2. First support is seen at $7.50 and then at $7.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

May oats closed down 1 1/4 cents at $4.03 3/4 Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls and bears are presently on a level near-term technical playing field. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $3.86. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.25. First support lies at $4.00 and then at this week’s low of $3.95. First resistance is seen at $4.05 and then at $4.09. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

Mustang Sally Farm

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #575 on: April 28, 2014, 01:13:32 AM »

Pork Commentary: US Hog Supply Drops
22 April 2014


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


US - It was good to see US hog marketings at 2,007,000 last week down even per cent from a year ago, writes Jim Long.

To keep hog prices high we need to see lower year over year numbers. Hog numbers down seven per cent. Cattle off last week 8 per cent from a year ago, and chicks placed down one per cent from same week last year. Less meat makes us more money, makes us smarter and maybe even better looking.

Cash US 40 lb. feeder pigs were $136.88 average last week. Have to say we never thought we would ever see prices like this. We expect the high for feeder pigs has been seen with calculations for feeder pigs being purchased soon to be calculated off October lean hog prices 99.30? versus August at 121.90? almost $50 per head less. That difference will come out of the feeder pig price we expect.

PED

PED has been a real market mover. It cuts supply and drives prices higher. We are concerned that many producers have not only been hit hard by the mortality but many have missed the opportunity of the higher hog prices is because they either sold hogs ahead and/or had bought lean hog futures at prices around $1.00 lean a pound range. Such producer will make money this year but will miss the $100 per head profits that appear to be available through to August.

It’s unfortunate for these producers. Many were pushed into price protection by their bankers. Sometimes you wonder if it’s wise to let bankers drive the agenda. By nature they are risk adverse. That’s why they work for a bank. They make loans - they don’t get them. Most producers got ahead by borrowing, taking risk, pushing production, by being entrepreneurial. We feel real sad for producers who have missed a once in a generation profit window.

Expansion

We believe sow herd expansion is underway. Some empty sow units are getting refilled. New sow barns are being planned and some getting underway. We expect PED will get under control. High prices lead to low prices. Maybe we are raining on the parade but we expect lots of pork being produced in eighteen months. We would suggest putting some money away for the rainy day.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics 

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #576 on: April 28, 2014, 06:03:01 AM »
By Meredith Davis and Theopolis Waters

CHICAGO (Reuters) - John Goihl, a hog nutritionist in Shakopee, Minnesota, knows a farmer in his state who lost 7,500 piglets just after they were born. In Sampson County, North Carolina, 12,000 of Henry Moore's piglets died in three weeks. Some 30,000 piglets perished at John Prestage's Oklahoma operation in the fall of 2013.

The killer stalking U.S. hog farms is known as PEDv, a malady that in less than a year has wiped out more than 10 percent of the nation's pig population and helped send retail pork prices to record highs. The highly contagious Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus is puzzling scientists searching for its origins and its cure and leaving farmers devastated in ways that go beyond financial losses.

"It's a real morale killer in a barn. People have to shovel pigs out instead of nursing them along," Goihl said.

Since June 2013 as many as 7 million pigs have died in the United States due to the virus, said Steve Meyer, president of Iowa-based Paragon Economics and consultant to the National Pork Board said. United States Department of Agriculture data showed the nation's hog herd at about 63 million as of March 1, 2014.

PEDv was first diagnosed in Ohio last May and has spread within a year to 30 states with no reliable cure in sight. U.S. packing plants may produce almost 2 percent less pork in 2014, according to Ken Mathews, USDA agricultural economist.

Last week the USDA responded to calls for more reliable data and classified PEDv as a reportable disease, a step that requires the pork industry to track its spread.

"It's a positive step that I wish they had taken last summer when it became obvious this was spreading rapidly," said Meyer.

Most farmers and researchers believe PEDv is transmitted from pig to pig by contact with pig manure.

"Something like a tablespoon of PEDv infected manure is roughly enough to infect the entire U.S. hog herd," said Rodney "Butch" Baker, swine biosecurity specialist at Iowa State University.

The National Pork Board has spent about $1.7 million researching the virus, which is nearly always fatal in pigs younger than 21 days. With pork prices at an all-time high of $3.83 a pound, the loss of baby pigs cuts into profits for hog farmers.

"If you have four weeks of mortality in a PEDv break, that's pretty devastating to the financial wellbeing of that operation," said Greg Boerboom, a Minnesota hog farmer.

"I think most producers are scared," Boerboom said. "They stay up at night."

PEDv does not pose a risk to human health and is not a food safety issue, the USDA says.

ORIGIN MYSTERY

Months of forensic research so far have turned up no clear evidence of how the disease entered the United States.

The virus is nearly identical to one that infected pigs in China's Anhui province, according to a report published in the American Society of Microbiology journal mBio. Researchers also are exploring whether the widespread use of pig-blood byproducts in hog feed might have introduced the disease.

There have been outbreaks in recent years in Europe, Japan, Mexico and parts of South America, though in milder forms than seen in the U.S. and China.

The disease has taken root in Canada, too, where the pork industry is deeply integrated with U.S. pork production.

LIKE A LAWN MOWER

PEDv thrives in cold, damp environments, and after slowing last summer its spread accelerated during the past winter. In mid-December, there were over 1,500 cases but by mid-April, that had more than tripled to 5,790, according to USDA data.

Altogether, of nearly 15,000 samples tested for PEDv about 32 percent have been positive.

The virus "acts like a lawn mower" on the villi in a pig's intestines, which are the tiny projections that aid digestion, said Tony Forshey, chief of animal health at the Ohio Department of Agriculture. With their villi gone, the piglets cannot absorb nutrients from food or water, contract diarrhea and die from dehydration.

So far, no vaccine has been able to completely protect pigs from the disease. An Iowa company, Harrisvaccines Inc., has made some progress, while pharmaceutical giants Merck Animal Health and Zoetis Inc have joined with universities to begin vaccine development.

"There is no silver bullet for PEDv," said Justin Ellis, marketing manager at Alltech, which developed a feed additive designed to reduce risk of the disease.

STRINGENT MEASURES

The disease is spreading even as farmers and truckers impose stricter cleanliness measures across the so-called Hog Belt, which stretches across most of the U.S. Midwest and Plains States and extends south to North Carolina, the nation's No. 2 hog producer. Iowa ranks first.

"It's a complete lifestyle change," said Iowa State's Baker. "In the past the truckers haven't thought of biosecurity much."

Some hog farmers prohibit outside visitors. Others require workers to change clothes when entering and leaving barns. Truck drivers wipe down the step into their cabs, disinfect their steering wheels and change boots or wear disposable booties before entering farm yards.

The industry wants truck washes to use fresh water instead of recycled, since PEDv can live in room temperature water for up to 13 days, a University of Minnesota study said.

"The only truck I regularly allow on site is the feed truck and last November I told the driver not to get out of the truck," said Bill Tentinger, an Iowa farmer who so far has kept PEDv at bay.

The extra washing, drying and disinfecting can consume at least two hours and cost up to $500 per load, industry sources said.

DEATH TOLLS

Bright yellow signs marked "PED" are popping up outside North Carolina farms warning the virus is present. One-third of North Carolina's 3,000 hog farms have been struck by PEDv since the first diagnosed case there in June 2013, the state says.

So many piglets have died that Tom Butler, a farmer who fattens hogs for market in southeastern Harnett County, is having difficulty finding animals. His herd is down 25 percent to 6,000 pigs, costing him more than $100,000.

"We were spiraling downhill for a while but I think we've leveled off," Butler said. "The industry is learning to cope."

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #577 on: May 05, 2014, 05:33:25 AM »

PED Update in US: 6,226 PED-positive Pig Farms
02 May 2014


US - The total number of farms that have tested positive for the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea (PED) virus now stands at 6,226 in 30 states, writes Jackie Linden.

The National Animal Health Laboratory Network (NAHLN) reports 204 positive accessions out of 779 tested at nine veterinary diagnostic labs for the week ending 26 April 2014.

The number of states reported to the NAHLN as having at least one confirmed case of PED now stands at 29. AASV reports, however, that cases have also been diagnosed in Virginia, which would bring the actual state count to 30.

PED USA

US states with PEDv-positive swine accessions

Pig Farms Testing Positive for PEDv: 6,226

The total number of pig farm samples (termed 'laboratory biological accessions' in the official report) that have tested positive for the PED virus (PEDv) since April 2013 now stands at 6,226, which includes 924 for the month of April so far.

Since testing was fully reported in November 2013, 16,649 farm samples have been tested, of which 32 per cent have tested positive for the virus.

PED USA

Figure 1. Number of pig farm samples positive for PEDv
(since April 2013; data from NAHLN)

Results by age class

Suckling pigs

For the current month to date, 466 farms have been tested, of which 200 or 43 per cent were positive for PEDv.

Since testing was fully reported in November 2013, 2,225 farms have been tested, of which 1,315 or 50 per cent tested positive for PEDv.

Nursery pigs

For the current month to date, 446 farms have been tested, of which 155 or 35 per cent were positive for PEDv.

Since testing was fully reported in November 2013, 2,705 farms have been tested, of which 1,147 or 37 per cent tested positive for PEDv.

Grower/finisher pigs

For the current month to date, 495 farms have been tested, of which 100 or 20 per cent were positive for PEDv.

Since testing was fully reported in November 2013, 2,978 farms have been tested, of which 1,168 or 29 per cent tested positive for PEDv.

Sows and boars

For the current month to date, 319 farms have been tested, of which 56 or 18 per cent tested positive for PEDv.

Since testing was fully reported in November 2013, 1,296 farms have been tested, of which 549 or 30 per cent tested positive for PEDv.

Unknown age class

For the current month to date, 1,676 farms have been tested, of which 429 or 26 per cent tested positive for PEDv.

Since testing was fully reported in November 2013, 8,024 farms have been tested, of which 2,194 or 26 per cent tested positive for PEDv.

Results by state

According to AASV, the total number of states affected remains at 30.

The total number of positive accessions on this report (up to the week of 20 April) is 6,226.

Those states with 100 or more positive tests are: Iowa, 1,887; Minnesota, 1,018; North Carolina, 613; Illinois, 608; Oklahoma, 364; Indiana, 334; Ohio, 286; Kansas, 253; Missouri, 147, Michigan, 136 and Nebraska, 102.

For the most recent week (week of 20 April), most of the new cases - 52 of the 204 new positive results - were in Iowa, followed by Minnesota (36) and Illinois (30).

Also reporting one or more positive results were Colorado, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee and Texas.

Individual Pigs Testing Positive for PEDv: 21,532

The total number of individual swine samples (termed 'biological samples' in the official report) since testing began in June 2013 now stands at 21,532.

For the current month to date, 18,925 samples have been tested, of which 4,090 or 22 per cent tested positive for PEDv.

Since testing was fully reported in November 2013, 75,345 samples have been tested, of which 21,532 or 25 per cent tested positive for PEDv.

PED USA

Figure 2. Number of pig samples positive for PEDv
(since June 2013; data from NAHLN)

Environmental Samples Testing Positive for PEDv: 4,962

The total number of environmental samples testing positive since testing began in June 2013 now stands at 4,962.

For the current month to date, 4,416 samples have been tested, of which 1,239 or 28 per cent tested positive for PEDv.

Since testing was fully reported in November 2013, 17,347 samples have been tested, of which 25 per cent tested positive.

PED USA

Figure 3. Number of environmental samples positive for PEDv
(since June 2013; data from NAHLN)

Notes on the report

These data are collated by USDA APHIS VS NVSL National Animal Health Laboratory Network (NAHLN) and cited by the American Association of Swine Veterinarians (AASV) in a report dated 30 April 2014.

Veterinary diagnostic laboratories that have voluntarily reported PEDv and SDCv testing data to NAHLN include: University of Georgia–Athens, University of Illinois, Iowa State University, University of Illinois, Kansas State University, University of Minnesota, Nebraska Veterinary Diagnostic Center, Ohio Department of Agriculture, Purdue University, Michigan State University-Diagnostic Center for Population and Animal Health, South Dakota State University and North Dakota State University. This data does not include testing conducted at private diagnostic laboratories, at the NVSL, or for research purposes.

Data summaries provided in this report reflect the most current and complete data available at the time of report preparation; summaries in this report may differ from those provided in past reports.

PEDv data were collated and summarized by Iowa State University Diagnostic Laboratory from mid-April through mid-June, 2013; only summary data on positive samples are available for that time period. Totals for April 2013 only include testing after 4/16/2013.

NAHLN Laboratories began providing more granular information about PEDv testing starting the week of 6/16/2013, and USDA NAHLN began collating the testing data at that time. During the 2013 federal government shutdown, the University of Minnesota Diagnostic Laboratory collected and reported PEDv testing data (weeks of 9/22/13 through 10/6/13).

Data on PEDv-negative accessions and samples became available from all laboratories starting November 2013. Therefore, summaries “total number tested” and “percent positive” are only calculated for samples tested after November 1, 2013.

In general, a laboratory accession is a set of samples received at the laboratory in which the samples were collected at a single premises on a single day. Therefore, each laboratory accession represents a swine herd and each sample represents an individual animal tested for PEDv on a given date. Because multiple swine within a herd are often simultaneously infected, analyses often use the laboratory accession as the epidemiological unit of interest.

Age classes are defined as suckling (up to one month old or still on sow), nursery (one to three months), grower/finisher (three to eight months) and sow/boar (older than eight months).

A single accession can include samples from multiple age classes or samples tested in different weeks. Therefore, the same accession can be counted in more than one age class category or more than one testing week summary.

This report does not currently include results of testing on feed samples.

This report only includes PCR testing data for PEDv at this time, with additional testing types to be added to the report as information on the performance of new assays becomes available.

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #578 on: May 12, 2014, 12:00:54 AM »

Hog Futures: Lean Hogs Closed Down on Wednesday
08 May 2014

Jim Wyckoff Commentary


US - June lean hogs closed down $2.05 at $121.17 Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low and hit a three-week low today. The bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.

However, a six-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $124.70. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $120.00. First resistance is seen at $122.00 and then at today’s high of $122.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $121.05 and then at $120.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

June live cattle closed down $0.72 at $137.57 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $139.85. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $136.50. First resistance is seen at $138.00 and then at today’s high of $138.72. First support is seen at today’s low of $137.30 and then at $137.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

August feeder cattle closed down $0.57 at $190.67 Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. Profit taking was featured. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the contract and record high of $193.47. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $187.75. First resistance is seen at $192.00 and then at today’s high of $192.87. First support is seen at this week’s low of $189.77 and then at $189.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #579 on: May 17, 2014, 09:51:03 AM »

Pork Commentary: US Pork Exports Remain Strong
13 May 2014


Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


US - Despite record high hog prices being reached in March, US pork exports in the first quarter (Jan – March) this year were more than 10 per cent higher than a year ago. Mexico (up 28 per cent), China (up 82 per cent), and South Korea (up 18 per cent), writes Jim Long.

The reality of exports is it’s not how high the pork price is in the US but what’s the price of pork in the importing countries. Mexico last week was $1.01 USD/lb. live weight. The US hog price was about 83? per pound. The 18? per pound difference is almost $50 per head difference. Pork importers in Mexico benefit from the $50 per head difference, they work the pork price spread and make money.

In a more dramatic difference, market hogs in South Korea and Japan are $600 - $700 USD per head. Hard to believe numbers. PED has ripped Mexico, Japan, and South Korea, dramatically lowering production. Their high hog prices reflect the extent people will pay to get pork. It’s our belief with strong export markets, lower domestic pork production over the coming weeks, lean hog prices will push back towards $1.00 in the coming weeks.

USDA Crop Report

Corn – USDA last week projected 13.935 billion bushels of corn to be produced this crop year. The estimate will probably change going forward but current corn prices of $5.00 a bushel will encourage planting’s in the US and everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere. After planting the only thing left is what the weather is?

Soybeans – USDA projects the US to produce a record 3.635 billion bushels. If that happens there is big chance that the large level of production will push soybeans closer to $10 a bushel. The prosperity that has swept through grain growers the last few years leading to higher land values, new tractors – equipment and other technology uptake leads to aggressive plantings not only in the US but many other countries. The millions and millions of acres that have come into production from fallow land, pasture, and other is leading to huge grain production increases in the world. World corn production has increased 50 per cent since 2006. One of these days the dog is going to hit the end of the chain in grain markets.

Magical Times

It is almost magical times for the hog industry. Some sows bringing $600, cash feeder pigs $125, and market hogs over $1.10 per pound. Never thought we would see prices like this, it is almost beyond belief. But cash is reality, it’s not some speculated price, the cheques we are seeing are real. The profits we are seeing will and is leading to sow herd expansion. The question is, will PED breaks become a regular occurrence just like PRRS. Will some farms just continually fight it? Will 4 – 7 million dead pigs annually become an animal market reality? It’s a wild card. The fact is the US industry has gotten ripped hand by PED and PRRS. The PED losses have led to record high hog prices. We expect that PED will not be a large factor in the future much like TGE has become, but what if it doesn’t? Billion dollar question.


Author: Jim Long, President & CEO, Genesus Genetics

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #580 on: May 23, 2014, 11:27:19 AM »
News


Hog Futures: Lean Hogs Closed Up on Wednesday
22 May 2014

Jim Wyckoff Commentary


US - June lean hogs closed up $1.32 at $119.92 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting.

The bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A nine-week-old downtrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $123.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $116.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $120.10 and then at $121.00. First support is seen at $119.00 and then at this week’s low of $118.47. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

June live cattle closed down $0.475 at $138.27 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw profit more taking from recent gains. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. More selling pressure this week would begin to suggest a bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $139.85. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $136.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $139.05 and then at the contract high of $139.85. First support is seen at $138.00 and then at $137.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

August feeder cattle closed up $0.60 at $196.52 Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low but did close at a fresh contract high close today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $198.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $193.47. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $197.25 and then at the contract high of $197.75. First support is seen at $196.00 and then at this week’s low of $195.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #581 on: June 02, 2014, 12:35:45 AM »

Hog Futures: Hogs Closed Down on Wednesday
29 May 2014

Jim Wyckoff Commentary


US - August lean hogs closed down $2.02 at $124.77 Wednesday, writes analyst Jim Wyckoff

Prices did close near the session high and hit a two-week low today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, today’s strong losses did negate a seven-week-old uptrend line on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $128.75.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $122.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $125.00 and then at $126.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $123.80 and then at $123.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

August live cattle closed up $0.35 at $137.10 Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded recently, to begin to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at $138.75.

The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $135.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $137.42 and then at $138.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $136.50 and then at $136.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

August feeder cattle closed up $2.07 at $195.57 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of $197.75.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $192.82. First resistance is seen at $196.00 and then at $197.00. First support is seen at $195.00 and then at $194.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #582 on: June 14, 2014, 11:57:08 PM »
News


Hog Futures: August Lean Hogs Closed up Thursday
13 June 2014

Jim Wyckoff Commentary


US - August lean hogs closed up $0.90 at $130.85 Thursday.

Prices closed near the session high and hit a contract high today. The hog bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $132.00.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $127.50.

First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $130.85 and then at $131.50. First support is seen at $130.00 and then at today’s low of $129.55

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #583 on: June 29, 2014, 11:24:15 AM »

Pork Commentary: Tyson to Buy Hillshire Farms
17 June 2014

Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


US - It appears Tyson Foods has won a bidding war with Pilgrims Pride to purchase Hillshire Farms. If everything transpires as proposed, the US$7.7-billion purchase would exceed Shuanghui’s purchase of Smithfield Foods earlier this year, writes Jim Long President, CEO of Genesus Inc.

Hillshire Farms is the maker of Jimmy Dean Sausage, Ball Park Hot Dogs. Tyson’s move will position it strongly in the shelf space prepared breakfast products. Tyson’s acquisition is aggressive and clearly sends the signal Tyson is looking to move from a primary fresh poultry and red meat to added value prepared food.

For our industry it is a signal that there is luster in the meat protein sector when companies like Tyson and Shuanghui are looking to invest deeply with billions of dollars further in our industry. To us this is positive when what we believe is smart money seeing the long term value in the meat related sector.

World Pork Expo Part II

Genetic Company Merry Go Round
•June 4 Choice Genetics USA LLC announced they jointly filed a plan of reorganization (Plan) with the Official Committee of Unsecured creditors in the case.Choice Genetics part of the French owned Groupe Grimaud had filed bankruptcy with debts of $21.8 million, with $14 million due to unsecured creditors and $486,000 in assets.
•Scidera the major unsecured creditor with over $10 million owed has reached terms of a settlement (this after Scidera had actively sought new stakeholders for Choice Genetics LLC.). The reorganization plan is subjected to approval in the reorganization case.
•Choice will then be challenged if proposal is accepted to rebuild their brand, and customer confidence that obviously gets eroded by bankruptcy. Finding new customers having already lost customers during the bankruptcy it will be even harder to find new ones. Tough slugging ahead.
•Another announcement about Genetics at the World Pork Expo was the announcement of Topigs and Norsvin two co–ops forming a joint company for international marketing outside Norway (Norsvin) and Topigs (Holland). Interesting development but we have to say we don’t get it. Usually when companies get together it’s for consolidation instead the entity Topigs – Norsvin goes from two companies to three. A competitor’s salesman came up with short name moniker for new joint venture company – Nopigs! Appears to us Topigs is in charge of deal. Office in Holland. CEO from Holland. Western Hemisphere Manager from Holland. Each company keeping their own breeding lines. We expect after a while the Norwegians will get tired of the Dutch trying to run everything. While PIC buying Genetiporc had real common sense this one we can’t figure out. Time will tell.
•Also at World Pork Expo like a phoenix rising from the ashes was a Danbred Exhibit. After being dropped by their franchise in North America, Danbred is trying to re–establish themselves in North America. The original Danbred group in Nebraska that morphed into DNA were smart, they made more for their own brand before Danbred created new franchises to compete with them. The Nebraska group stopped building Danbred brand. Now the Danes are looking through the schoolyard fence hoping to get to play. As we said smart move Nebraska group. It helped not only you but all other established North American companies.

Genetic Merry Go Round continues…

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Re: American Hog News USDA
« Reply #584 on: July 06, 2014, 12:12:57 AM »

Pork Commentary: Bullish Hogs and Pigs Report
01 July 2014



Jim Long is President &
CEO of Genesus Genetics.


US - Last Friday the US swine industry received the USDA June 1st 'Hogs and Pigs' Report. Bottom line: three million fewer pigs in the inventory year-over-year and a breeding herd smaller than a year ago, writes Jim Long.

This all but guarantees farrow to finish profit margins for the next year of over $60 per head - the very best 12 months in the history of the US hog industry.

Our Observations

Despite record per hog profits in the last three months, the US breeding herd has not expanded. June 1st breeding inventory was 4,000 head higher than on March 1st and 29,000 lower than a year ago. Treading water. We believe PED challenges and the need to replenish lost equity has been a damper on expansion. We expect to see sow herd expansion beginning in the fall of 2014.

There is no doubt PED has had a major effect on mortality. The three million fewer market hogs in inventory are directly attributable to the PED mortality. In the coming half a year, we expect at least 100,000 fewer market hogs a week year-over-year. The current strength in lean hog futures through the fall and early winter are sustainable with upside at the production levels.

The market inventory of under 50 pound pigs on June 1st of six per cent fewer year-over-year clearly indicates PED had not slowed down in April–May time frame when the June 1st inventory under 50-pound pigs were born. If PED continues at that level through the summer and fall, summer 2015 market hog prices will be the same or higher as this year. The bizarre reality is PED has made the US swine industry massive levels of profit by restricting hog supply.

Pigs per litter for the six months December-May: this year, 9.65; last year, 10.19. That’s a half pig per litter, and the PED effect.

Market experts - whatever that means - expected a significant increase in the breeding herd. We didn’t think there was. In our previous report, we wrote that next to no new sow buildings were being built. We don’t believe we can get significant expansion without new sow buildings. We sell breeding stock it’s our business to find new barns and existing empty sow barns being restocked. We are stocking two empty barns currently, a total of 6,000 sows. We know of three other empty sow units being restocked by competitors currently. It’s happening but these are in both US and Canada and in the big picture not a lot breeding animals in the total inventory.

Summary

No expansion, three million less market hogs. Throw in six per cent less US beef and the red meat sector is restricting supply. We expect hog prices to reflect margins of over $60 per head average for the next 12 months.

In the first week of January, we called 2014 – The Year of the Pig Farmer. Looks like The Year of the Pig Farmer is not only 2014 but half of 2015. Pay some bills, put some money away - we all know that there is a huge cycle.

 

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