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News: 150 days from birth is the average time you need to sell your pigs for slaughter and it is about 85 kgs on average.
 
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mikey
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« Reply #45 on: May 25, 2008, 09:03:48 AM »

Saturday, May 24, 2008Print This Page
Market Preview: Cold Storage Trending Up
US - Weekly US Market Preview provided by Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D., Paragon Economics, Inc.



USDA’s monthly cold storage report, released yesterday (May 21), showed a slight reduction in April 30 frozen pork inventories from their record level of March 31. Total pork in commercial warehouses amounted to 652.2 million pounds, fractionally lower than last month’s 652.7 million pounds (see Figure 1). This level is still the second highest on record.

Figure 1




The increase was led on a percentage basis by stocks of butts, which grew by 158% vs. April 2007. The actual increase in butt inventories amounted to 16.937 million pounds, putting butts third on the actual tonnage increase list for this month. The 27.7 million pounds of butts in cold storage is a new record, breaking the old mark set two months ago. Note that butt inventories had never exceeded 20 million pounds until January 2008 and they have done so each month since.

Figure 2



The largest tonnage increase for April cold storage stocks was bellies at 38.58 million pounds. Those stocks now stand 62% larger than one year ago. Ham inventories increased by 30.6 million pounds or 38.5% over last April.

I think at least a portion of the increases in inventories of these three cuts is attributable to the refrigerated shipping container shortage, which we have discussed in the past. While many think the U.S. pork industry primarily exports loins and tenderloins, these three cuts have become much more important in the export mix in recent years – especially as more price-sensitive markets, such as Mexico and China/Honk Kong, – have grown. Any difficulties for exports in general will show up in these inventory numbers.

Figure 3



Loin inventories grew by 23%, year/year, or 8.75 million pounds in April.

I am still not overly concerned about the levels of cold storage inventories. As can be seen in Figure 2, cold storage stocks as a percentage of production dropped in April, indicating that March was very likely the high for the year. If that’s the case, this year’s peak will be lower than in six of the past 10 years.

 


Figure 4

Meat Inventories Plentiful
Demand has been, by all accounts, exceptional this spring. If that continues, these stocks will not pose a problem for the U.S. pork industry. On the other hand, one must remain concerned about the sheer volume of product that is in warehouses. Should any hiccup develop for pork demand – either at home or abroad – these supplies would become burdensome to prices very quickly.

That concern increases when one considers the amount of total meat and poultry in cold storage (Figure 3). April’s level of 2.354 billion pounds is just 10 million pounds shy of the April record set back in 2002. Turkey stocks will continue to grow through next fall, so it will take some pretty dramatic reductions in either chicken or pork stocks or both to keep from surpassing the 2002 record levels the rest of this year.

Figure 5




And current levels of output do not portend well for large reductions of frozen inventories. Figure 4 shows the amount of combined weekly meat and poultry production increase over last year. I have used a six-week moving average to smooth the data a bit, but the message is clear: We are producing a huge amount of meat protein each week.

 

Corn Concerns Grow
Finally, the situation with this year’s corn crop does not look good at all. Figures 5 and 6 show data as of last Monday for the percent of corn acres planted and percent emerged. The planting rate is the second lowest since 1990 – barely ahead of the flood year of 1993, while the percent of corn emerged is far and away the lowest since 1999 (the first “emergence” data that I could find in the USDA database). Hopes for more than the planned 86 million acres of corn are now, I think, long gone and the hope for at least a trend-line yield of 153 or so bushels per acre is in dire jeopardy.

Figure 6




Consider the likely consequences of 86 million acres and lower-than-needed yields, plus crude oil surpassing $130/barrel this week. What does that mean for corn prices if gasoline and ethanol follow the oil market? Will there be any reason to run ethanol plants below their capacities?

This is not a good situation for the meat business. But you’ve heard that before, right?









 



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« Reply #46 on: May 27, 2008, 08:37:13 AM »

Monday, May 26, 2008Print This Page
Mankato Company and U of M Develop PRRS Vaccine
MINNESOTA - A Mankato-based company, along with researchers from the University of Minnesota, has developed a new pig vaccine that farmers and veterinarians are hoping will gradually obliterate PRRS, a disease that costs the industry more than $550 million a year.



According to the Mankato Free Press, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS, pronounced ‘pers’) has been a bane to hog farmers, killing piglets and preventing them from thriving for over 20 years.

Until now, farmers have been trying to control outbreaks but were unable to ward off future strains. They’ve focused on biosecurity and hygiene in a less than successful effort to prevent infection.

But “this vaccine we hope and we think will be a breakthrough that will allow that (eradication) to happen,” said Mark Whitney, hog specialist for the U of M Extension Service.


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« Reply #47 on: June 08, 2008, 09:18:27 AM »

Saturday, June 07, 2008Print This Page
WPX Report: Companies Team Up to Produce Non-antibiotic Feed Supplement
US - Nutrition and animal health companies Chr Hansen and TechMix in the US have joined forces to create a range of nutritional supplements for young piglets.



The two companies announced their joint effort in combining their knowledge of oral rehydration and direct feed microbials (DFM) to produce BlueLite Plus 2Bw at World Pork Expo in Des Moines Iowa, USA this week.

The product is designed to help reduce the threat of weaning and intestinal problems in piglets without antibiotics.

The companies describe the product as a combination of hydration support through an electrolyte formula and gut microbials to produce active enzymes in the piglet's small intestinal tract.

"BlueLite Plus 2Bw is an excellent product for any feeder pig or farrow-to-finish operation that's concerned about the health and quality of their piglets," said Dr Peter Franz, chief veterinarian at TechMix.

"You just add it to the piglets' drinking water after weaning.

"BlueLite Plus 2Bw provides three critical things: rehydration through palatable acidification, electrolyte energy fortification and direct-fed microbial supplementation that promotes long-term intestinal health."

Dr Franz said that pig producers have reported that the new supplement ahs been quickly accepted and has shown improved feed in-take and improved long-term performance.

Dr Brian Kremer at Chr Hansen said that the antimicrobial aspect of BlueLite Plus 2Bw stabilises the piglets' intestinal health.

"Basically, we're reducing the bad bugs and delivering more good bugs.

"In the field, we're seeing less mortality, increased feed intake and increased daily gain - all without antibiotics."



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« Reply #48 on: June 10, 2008, 07:48:32 AM »

Monday, June 09, 2008Print This Page
Hog Lagoon Replacement Plan Funded
US - Environmentalists regard hog lagoons as a hazardous cause of pollution. They also represent health threats due to waste disposal.



A lagoon that burst at an Onslow County hog farm in 1995 sent nearly 25 million gallons of untreated waste flooding into the New River, killing thousands of fish and prompting a state moratorium on new hog farms, reports StarNewsOnline.

An in-depth study by N.C. State University, funded by the hog industry under an agreement with the state, backed up that fact.

But that doesn't mean officials are backing away from their long-term goal of phasing out the state's nearly 5,000 active and abandoned lagoons.

Taking its first tentative step in seeing if a next-generation disposal system is feasible, the N.C. Division of Soil and Water Conservation last week announced that it would give as much as $500,000 each to two farms and a waste-processing operator. The money will allow the farms to install the necessary equipment to separate the solids from the water waste and Super Soil Systems Inc. USA to expand its plant to process the additional solid waste into fertilizer and other gardening products.

Joe Rudek, a scientist with Environmental Defense Fund's Raleigh office, called the move an important first step in moving the process along.

But he said the program wasn't meant to subsidize the hog industry in cleaning up its ways, but to help the farmers who were willing to embrace the new but economically unproved technology.

"This lagoon-conversion program is not a program to fund conversion of the entire industry," Rudek said. "The purpose is to reward these farmers who are taking that risk."

Ray Campbell, president of Clinton-based Super Soils Systems, admitted that his company's disposal system isn't as cheap as the traditional lagoon-and-sprayfield method.

The Super Soils system is just one of the innovative technologies officials are interested in getting in the ground. Others would seek to capitalize on methane gas from hog waste.

Angie Whitener, director of policy development with the N.C. Pork Council, said the hog industry trade group was looking forward to seeing how the Super Soils and other innovative technologies performed environmentally and economically.
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« Reply #49 on: June 11, 2008, 09:23:41 AM »

Tuesday, June 10, 2008Print This Page
CME: Corn and Soybean Plantings
US - CME's Daily Livestock Report for 9th June, 2008.



All eyes will be on USDA’s monthly Crop Production report and World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Tuesday morning to see what, if any, changes USDA’s statisticians and economists have made to estimates for this year’s corn production numbers. It is pretty unusual for USDA to make any dramatic changes in the June report since planted acreage and crop condition are still unknown but respondents to DowJones Newswire’s monthly pre-report survey think that some small changes may be made. The ranges and averages of those estimates appear in the table at right. We have to wonder just where USDA will reduce 2007-08 usage to bring year-end stocks upward as these analysts expect.

 


Meanwhile, conditions have deteriorated for this year’s corn and soybean crop. The percentage of corn acres rated good and excellent by USDA fell by 3% to just 60% this week. The graph at left shows the best and worst years as well as the 10-year average ratings and those for last year and this. This year’s good-excellent percentage is still 6% ahead of 2002 but the proximity to the year of the worst average annual ratings and the trend are both concerning, especially given the amount of rain received in the Midwest this past week. River conditions in Iowa are fast approaching those of 1993’s record year for flooding. Several central Iowa rivers are projected to crest above 1993 levels later this week even without further rain.

E-Livestock Volume 6/9/08 6/6/08 6/2/08
LE (E-Live Cattle): 7,843 11,060 7,166
GF (E-Feeder Cattle): 413 405 315
HE (E-Lean Hogs): 20,731 23,597* 17,075
*Denotes a new record for Globex volume

USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report did not include an update to last week’s 95% of all acres planted, indicating that few more may be planted. See charts on page 2. USDA’s next estimate for total 2007 acres will come in the Acreage report on June 30. Corn had emerged on 89% of all acres as of Sunday. That compares to 99% last year and a 5- year average of 95% and still leaves 2008 as the slowest year on record for corn emergence.

Soybean planting progress slowed sharply last week, with only 8% being added to the previous week’s 69%. This week’s 77% compares to 94% last year and a 10-year average of 89%. Soybean emergence, at just 32%, is the slowest on record.

That’s the bad news for grain buyers but there is some good news — there is still time to make these crops! Iowa State University climatologist Dr. Elwyn Taylor told audiences Thursday and Friday at World Pork Expo that the threat of drought has lessened dramatically and that, though heat-degree days have lagged behind their normal level, they could still reach a level to provide good yields. His objective yield estimates for the U.S. as of last week, based on 100 years of yield data, are 148 bushels/acre for corn and 37 bushels/acre for soybeans.








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« Reply #50 on: June 12, 2008, 11:45:10 AM »

Wednesday, June 11, 2008Print This Page
CME: Another Look at Corn and Soybeans
US - CME's Daily Livestock Report for 10th June, 2008.



In case you cannot tell, Steve Meyer writes today: My apologies for another grain themed DLR. If we keep this up, economist ethics (I hope that is not an oxymoron) will force us to rename this newsletter. But three factors force me to write once again about grains. First, they are the dominant news of the day and, in my opinion, the most important factor that will affect livestock markets over the next few years. Second, the conditions for the potential feed cost train wreck that I have been writing about for the past couple of years are all coming to pass. Third — and absolutely related to the other two — I spent several hours this afternoon helping fill sandbags to protect homes and businesses in my home town of Adel, Iowa from the rising waters of the Middle Raccoon River. My family, home and business are all out of harm’s way but the river will crest sometime tomorrow at or above the level of the Flood of 1993. Saylorville Reservoir north of Des Moines will breach a remodeled spillway tonight that is 6 feet higher than it was in 1993. And the National Weather Service is forecasting 2-4 inches of rain tomorrow night for much of Iowa.

I tell you this not to be any kind of hero or to entice your sympathy but to point out that the situation with excess moisture is very, very serious. Planted acres in 1993 fell 2.1 million short of the planned level. Only 85.9% of planted acres were harvested — the lowest level since 1983 (a severe drought year) and one of only two times (the other was 2002) since 1990 when less than 90% of planted acres were harvested. Finally, the average national corn yield in 1993 was 100.7 bushels per acre. Compare that to 1992’s 131.5 and 1994’s 138.6. That 1993 yield was 17.5% BELOW the 1980-2007 trend. In short — it was a large train wreck.

E-Livestock Volume 6/10/08 6/9/08 6/3/08
LE (E-Live Cattle): 8,129 7,843 11,444
GF (E-Feeder Cattle): 431 413 236
HE (E-Lean Hogs): 23,963** 20,731 12,663
**Denotes a new record for Globex volume



The major difference between 1993 and what we see this year is timing. The 1993 flood occurred in mid-July to early August after a long period of constant and heavy rains in the upper Mississippi River valley. The earlier pattern this year provides some hope of a respite but conditions had better change quickly.

Steiner Consulting Group included the graph in their bi-weekly Meat and Deli Planner last week and I thought it deserving of some attention. It is no accident that corn (black line, right-hand scale) and crude oil (red line, left scale) have risen almost lockstep over the past few years. Ethanol has provided a direct demand-side connection that did not exist to any great degree before the withdrawal of MTBE as a gasoline additive in 2005. It is almost certain that the connection will continue.

USDA released its monthly Crop Production report today and it contained a projected national average corn yield of 148.9 bushels — 5 bushels lower than last month’s trendline yield. The tables on page 2 show USDA’s supply and use estimates for both corn and soybeans. The lower yield forecast, combined with lower feed/residual use and exports, pushed projected corn carryout to only 673 mil. bu. or 5.3% of total projected usage. Interestingly, the latest yield estimate is very close to that of ISU’s Dr. Elwyn Taylor that we cited yesterday.


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« Reply #51 on: June 16, 2008, 11:08:49 AM »

Friday, June 13, 2008Print This Page
NIST: Crude 'Oil' from Pig Manure
US - After studying crude oil from pig manure, NIST's (National Institute of Standards and Technology) chemists have come to a series of conclusions, one of them being that it "smells worse than manure", to quote NIST chemist Tom Bruno.



But a job's a job, so the NIST team has developed the first detailed chemical analysis revealing what processing is needed to transform pig manure crude oil into fuel for vehicles or heating. Mass production of this type of biofuel could help consume a waste product overflowing at U.S. farms, and possibly enable cutbacks in the nation's petroleum use and imports. But, according to a new NIST paper, pig manure crude will require a lot of refining.

The ersatz oil used in the NIST analyses was provided by engineer Yuanhui Zhang of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. Zhang developed a system using heat and pressure to transform organic compounds such as manure into oil.

As described in the new paper, Bruno and colleagues determined that the pig manure crude contains at least 83 major compounds, including many components that would need to be removed, such as about 15 percent water by volume, sulfur that otherwise could end up as pollution in vehicle exhaust, and lots of char waste containing heavy metals, including iron, zinc, silver, cobalt, chromium, lanthanum, scandium, tungsten and minute amounts of gold and hafnium. Whatever the pigs eat, from dirt to nutritional supplements, ends up in the oil.

While the thick black liquid may look like its petroleum-based counterparts, the NIST study shows that looks can be deceiving. "The fact that pig manure crude oil contains a lot of water is unfavorable. They would need to get the water out," Bruno says.

The measurements were made with a new NIST test method and apparatus, the advanced distillation curve, which provides highly detailed and accurate data on the makeup and performance of complex fluids. A distillation curve charts the percentage of the total mixture that evaporates as a sample is slowly heated. Because the different components of a complex mixture typically have different boiling points, a distillation curve gives a good measure of the relative amount of each component in the mixture. NIST chemists enhanced the traditional technique by improving precision and control of temperature measurements and adding the capability to analyze the chemical composition of each boiling fraction using a variety of advanced methods.

NIST researchers analyzed the graphite-like char remaining after the distillation by bombarding it with neutrons, a non-destructive way of identifying the types and amounts of elements present. Two complementary neutron methods detected the heavy metals listed above.

Bruno and colleagues currently spend much of their time analyzing military jet fuels and are not planning a major foray into pig manure. But Bruno concedes that the effort may have a payoff. "Who knows, it might help decrease the nuisance of manure piles."



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« Reply #52 on: June 16, 2008, 11:10:25 AM »

Friday, June 13, 2008Print This Page
US Running Out of Corn
US - According to the latest figures from the US feed grains outlook, American producers are going to see tough times ahead. Lower production, strong domestic demand and lower ending stocks are going to set a trend of tight corn supply and point towards upcoming shortfalls.



The 2008-09 US corn crop is projected at 12.1 million bushels, down 7% from record in 2007-08. Adding pressure is torrential rains across the US Midwest region, which has delayed corn plantings. This has made many producers anxious as out of season plantings risk lower yields. Early June is the latest producers can look at planting corn, otherwise they will need to switch to other crops.

Regardless of delayed plantings, corn yields are still forecast to be lower than last year, which will fail to meet the US 13-billion bushel demand. Ending stocks of corn are forecast to the lowest since 1995-96. A consequence of tighter supplies is higher prices, with the USDA forecasting the season-average price to be $5 to $6/bushel, well above the previous forecast of $4.10 to $4.40/bushel.

Despite lower forecast US corn output, globally coarse grain production is projected to increase slightly to 1.1 billion tonnes, due to increased corn production in Argentina, Brazil, China and EU-27.

The US corn crop is used for three main reasons, feed, fuel (ethanol) and export. The US is a huge player in the global market, producing 42.5% of the global crop and expected to account for 64% of all corn traded internationally during this marketing year. If the US corn crop declines, it affects not only the price of corn, but also the price of related products that can be substituted, including wheat, soybeans and hay.

Predictions are that the feed and feed residue element of the corn crop will be substantially lower in the 2008-09 season than 2007-08. This should cause livestock production to eventually fall, as predicted by USDA for 2009. Also, feeders will turn to distillers dried grains (DDG’s), a by-product of ethanol production, as they try and contain feed costs.



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« Reply #53 on: June 20, 2008, 12:38:51 PM »

Thursday, June 19, 2008Print This Page
EPA Urged to Push Biofuels Out of Food Domain
US - A delegation of 58 members of Congress sent a letter to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) encouraging the agency to pursue advancing the development of cellulosic biofuels and other fuels that do not contribute to rising food prices and environmental concerns as it evaluates the impact of renewable fuel standards.



“As you know, domestic food prices are rising twice as fast as inflation and global food prices have nearly doubled in the last three years,” the letter, addressed to Administrator Steve Johnson, states. “There are many factors contributing to rising prices, including growing global demand, the price of oil, import restrictions, poor weather and the recent acknowledgement that the biofuels mandate is also a factor.”

Approximately 25 percent of America’s corn crop was diverted to produce ethanol in 2007 and 30 to 35 percent will be diverted in 2008.

The letter encourages the use of cellulosic biofuel, noting that cellulosic biofuel could displace one-third or more of domestic gasoline supplies, could significantly reduce the price of gasoline and could reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fuels by 80 percent or more, while fuels derived from corn and other crops will displace only about 4 percent of America’s gasoline supplies this year.

“As you evaluated the impact of the renewable fuels standard on rising food prices, we urge you to do so in a way that will accelerate the development of advanced biofuels,” the letter concludes.



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« Reply #54 on: June 22, 2008, 10:00:59 AM »

Higher Bacteria Count on Organic Pigs
COLUMBUS, US – While consumers are increasing demand for pork produced without antibiotics, more of the pigs raised in such conditions carry bacteria and parasites associated with food-borne illnesses, according to a new study.

 

A comparison of swine raised in antibiotic-free and conventional pork production settings revealed that pigs raised outdoors without antibiotics had higher rates of three food-borne pathogens than did pigs on conventional farms, which remain indoors and receive preventive doses of antimicrobial drugs.

“Animal-friendly, outdoor farms tend to have a higher occurrence of Salmonella, as well as higher rates of parasitic disease,” said lead study author Wondwossen Gebreyes, associate professor of veterinary preventive medicine at Ohio State University.

 
Wondwossen Gebreyes
More than half of the pigs on antibiotic-free farms tested positive for Salmonella, compared to 39 percent of conventionally raised pigs infected with the bacterial pathogen. The presence of the Toxoplasma gondii parasite was detected in 6.8 percent of antibiotic-free pigs, compared to 1.1 percent of conventionally raised pigs. And two naturally raised pigs of the total 616 sampled tested positive for Trichinella spiralis, a parasite considered virtually eradicated from conventional U.S. pork operations.

As long as pork is cooked thoroughly according to federal guidelines, the presence of these infectious agents in food animals should pose no risk to human health. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recommends that consumers cook fresh pork to an internal temperature of 160 degrees Fahrenheit. The pathogens generally do not cause illness in the animals.

Gebreyes won’t recommend one type of pork production practice over another.

“We are just doing the science and showing the results,” he said. “Does having an antibiotic-free and animal-friendly environment cause the re-emergence of historically significant pathogens? I think that is an extremely important question for consumers, policymakers and researchers to consider.”

The study is published in a recent issue of the journal Foodborne Pathogens and Disease.

On conventional farms, pigs remain indoors in ventilated barns and have free movement within pens. Antibiotics are added to their feed to promote growth and protect against infections, followed by a withdrawal period before slaughter to ensure the meat doesn’t contain any antibiotic residue.

On antibiotic-free farms, pigs are reared in open fields with free access to soil and water. They are given antibiotics only for treatment against active infections, and once sick pigs are treated, they are separated from the herds and no longer marketed as naturally raised pork.

The scientists tested pigs on farms in North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin. Of the total studied, 324 were raised in antibiotic-free systems and 292 lived on conventional farms. The researchers took blood samples to test for the presence of antibodies against bacterial and parasitic infections. The higher rates of infection on natural farms were consistent in all three geographic regions.

Of the three pathogens studied, the positive tests for the Trichinella roundworm surprised researchers the most. Gebreyes said federal inspectors might expect to find one positive test for the parasite among more than 14,000 pigs, so the two positive tests among 600 pigs were significant.

The infection resulting from this parasite, trichinellosis, has historically been associated with undercooked pork, but in the recent past, the parasite has been associated mostly with wild mammals. People with this infection typically experience diarrhea, vomiting, fatigue and fever first, followed by headaches, cough, and aching joints and muscle pains. The symptoms can last for months, and severe cases can be fatal, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Prescription drugs are available to treat the infection. The nearly 7 percent of naturally raised pigs infected with Toxoplasma, while a relatively small number, still represented a significantly higher infection rate than that found in the conventional herds.

Most people with a functioning immune system can resist symptoms associated with infection by Toxoplasma, which is considered most risky for pregnant women and those with compromised immune systems.

Salmonella is a common cause of food-borne illness, typically causing diarrhea, fever and abdominal cramps that resolve within a week and rarely require treatment in healthy people. More than 1 million people are infected by Salmonella in the United States each year, according to the World Health Organization.

Gebreyes noted that routine antibiotic use does not fully prevent the occurrence of Salmonella bacteria even in conventional pig herds, as shown by the 39 percent of those pigs in this study that tested positive for the pathogen. By comparison, 54 percent of antibiotic-free pigs tested positive for Salmonella.

“The advantage of using antibiotics is to prevent these infections from occurring. The disadvantage is it appears to create a favorable environment for strains of the bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics,” he said. “On the other hand, when antibiotics are not used, the pigs tend to get less resistant bugs, but higher rates of the common bacteria of food safety concern. The prevalence of Salmonella was significantly higher in the antibiotic-free herd than in the conventional herd. That could cause concern down the road about eating this product.”

The researchers theorized that naturally raised pigs’ exposure to moisture, vegetation and other animal species could contribute to their higher rates of pathogens. This study is part of a comprehensive examination of food safety issues related to pork production that includes testing pigs for a broader range of disease-causing organisms.



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« Reply #55 on: June 22, 2008, 10:07:12 AM »

Total Red Meat Production at Record High for May
US - Commercial red meat production for the United States totaled 4.22 billion pounds in May, up 4 percent from the 4.08 billion pounds produced in May 2007.

 

Pork production totaled 1.82 billion pounds, up 3 percent from the previous year.

Hog kill totaled 9.06 million head, up 3 percent from May 2007.

The average live weight was down 1 pound from the previous year, at 268 pounds.

January to May 2008 commercial red meat production was 21.0 billion pounds, up 7 percent from 2007. Accumulated beef production was up 4 percent from last year, veal was down 11 percent, pork was up 11 percent from last year, and lamb and mutton production was down 4 percent.

May 2007 contained 23 weekdays (including one holiday) and 4 Saturdays.
May 2008 contained 22 weekdays (including one holiday) and 5 Saturdays.


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« Reply #56 on: June 30, 2008, 08:03:33 AM »

Saturday, June 28, 2008Print This Page
Market Preview: Anxiously Awaiting Hog and Crop Forecasts
US - Weekly US Market Preview provided by Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D., Paragon Economics, Inc.



All eyes turn to USDA reports as agency statisticians publish estimates of hog numbers on Friday and, perhaps more importantly, crop acreage and grain stocks on Monday. Watch your e-mail on Monday for our summary of the Hogs and Pigs Report.




Figure 1 shows the results of DowJones’ quarterly pre-report survey of market analysts regarding their expectations for the report. These numbers generally agree with my expectations. I believe (perhaps it is more hope than believe) that the breeding herd may be a bit smaller than this. I expect a 2% reduction based on both sow slaughter and gilt slaughter data from the University of Missouri.


I believe a few of these numbers are quite notable. First, analysts still expect the market herd to be significantly larger than last year. June slaughter has run 7.0% higher than last year when one compares the same number of weekdays and weekends. As usual, that number vs. the 180-lb. and over inventory will serve as an early checkpoint for the report.


Second, the March-May pig crop expectations are at +2%. If true, this means that we will not get much supply relief until 2009. Historically, we have had to adjust that number downward for death losses and upward for imports from Canada to arrive at an expected slaughter two quarters hence. The death losses should be much smaller, suggesting that fourth-quarter slaughter could be more than 2% larger. Imports of both market hogs and feeder pigs from Canada (See Figures 2 and 3.) have gone below year-earlier levels and, thus, suggest that fourth-quarter slaughter growth will be less than 2%. How those numbers balance will be important for fall hog markets.

Third, analysts see a larger reduction of output in the future as evidenced by the larger reductions in farrowing intentions. Those reductions, though, are slower than I expected given the feed cost situation we face.



High Futures Prices Aren’t Profitable
Which brings us to the elephant that remains in the room. Figure 4 shows cost and hog price projections based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group futures prices on June 23. These include those $99-plus Lean Hogs futures prices for next summer and note that they do not cover costs. While that purple line representing projected hog prices appears pretty close to the red cost line, readers must look at the vertical distance between them to estimate losses per cwt. of carcass – and that difference is significant. A 200-lb. carcass will incur losses of $25.10 in June, $34.28 in September and $40-plus in October and November. If you sell one pig per month at these costs and prices through May (i.e. those June Lean Hog futures prices impact May more than June), you would lose right at $300.

I do not see much relief in sight for this situation. There is at least as much chance for the corn crop to get smaller as there is for it to get bigger. Oil prices hit $140/barrel yesterday and that adds value to ethanol and corn used for ethanol. Hog prices could be higher, but these futures prices are optimistic relative to the prices I get from basic supply-demand analysis. Excellent consumer demand or export demand could help, but helping enough to alleviate these projected losses is unlikely, in my opinion.



Communicating the Crisis
I spent Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington, DC, with National Pork Producers Council officers and staff, and Dr. Robert Wisner of Iowa State University and Mark Greenwood of Agstar Financial in Mankato, MN. Our mission was to inform key members of Congress and the administration (USDA, the White House, Council of Economic Advisors) of the serious situation facing the pork industry. The midwestern floods have created a teachable moment, it appears, as we got far more attention than ever before.

NPPC is asking Washington for five things:

Penalty-free release of non-environmentally sensitive land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). This has been a controversial issue, but it appears to be gaining some support. It is estimated that 12-15 million of the 34 million CRP acres could be cultivated without detrimental environmental impacts. NPPC is asking for this release by Aug. 1 to allow farmers to plan for the 2009-2010 crop year – and in hopes that some acres might get planted to winter wheat to provide feed supply help as early as next June.

Support the request by Texas Gov. Rick Perry to waive the renewable fuel standard. My impression is that there is sincere interest in reducing the standard or, perhaps, just pushing the numbers out one year given this year’s tight supplies. That would mean the standard for 2010 would be 9 billion gallons instead of 10.5 billion.

Eliminate the blender’s tax credit. The amount of agreement to “leveling the playing field” for corn buyers surprised me. A more politically palatable alternative might be structuring the credit so it is negatively related to corn prices – i.e., significant when corn prices are low and zero when corn prices are high. The trick is defining high and low – but it is possible and, I think, should be pursued.

Eliminate the import tariff. This goes hand-in-hand with a change in the tax credit.

Waive farm program rules to allow a harvestable crop to be planted yet this year on acres that have not been planted or have been lost due to weather. This is point 5 just because there probably is not enough time to get it done at Washington, DC’s notoriously slow pace.

Time to Get Involved
Now is the time to get involved whether you agree with these five items or think something entirely different should be done. Congress will have limited opportunities to take action over the next two months. Please let your representatives and senators know what you think.





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mikey
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« Reply #57 on: June 30, 2008, 08:06:19 AM »

Friday, June 27, 2008Print This Page
USDA Approves of First Swine Visual Tag
MINNESOTA - Digital Angel, an advanced technology company in the field of animal identification and emergency identification solutions, announced today that its Destron Fearing unit has received approval from the U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) for Premises Identification Number (PIN) tags for identification of swine entering harvest channels.



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"Having premises identified is the first step in improving the animal health infrastructure of the country. The availability of USDA-approved tags for market sows is a logical next step toward enhancing traceability and improving the industry’s ability to detect diseases earlier so the spread of a disease can be limited efficiently." 
Patrick Webb, Director of swine health programs for the National Pork Board
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This is the first instance of a visual livestock identification tag to gain USDA approval. While not intended for use as unique individual animal identification, the new, non-RFID tags, manufactured by Destron Fearing, will provide a valuable tool to enhance the traceability of breeding stock and to support the USDA’s National Animal Identification System (NAIS).

Consisting of a pink tamper-proof button and a pink visual panel stud, each tag carries the official USDA shield, the assigned premises identification number (PIN) and a notice stating “unlawful to remove”. Finally, there is space available on the visual panel for producers to include an individual management number should they choose to use one.

“Over 73 percent of pork producing sites have registered their premises and received a premises identification number, or PIN,” said Patrick Webb, Director of swine health programs for the National Pork Board, a non-profit agency created by the U.S. Congress that collects pork production fees and administers industry programs.

“Having premises identified is the first step in improving the animal health infrastructure of the country. The availability of USDA-approved tags for market sows is a logical next step toward enhancing traceability and improving the industry’s ability to detect diseases earlier so the spread of a disease can be limited efficiently,” he said.

Joseph J. Grillo, Chief Executive Officer of Digital Angel, commented, “We are very proud that Destron Fearing is the first to receive NAIS approval for a visual tag. As the oldest livestock identification manufacturer in the United States and the originator of both visual tags in 1945 and radio frequency identification (RFID) tags in the 1980s, we believe it is important to provide our customers with new value-added solutions that help to keep them ahead of the curve in today’s changing marketplace.”

NAIS is a modern, streamlined information system that helps producers and animal health officials respond quickly and effectively to animal health events in the United States. The program, which is voluntary at the federal level, consists of three parts: premises registration, animal identification and tracing. Destron Fearing already produces three other NAIS-compliant products, including an injectable RFID transponder for use in horses, alpacas and llamas.


 
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« Reply #58 on: July 03, 2008, 10:48:31 AM »

Animal Feed & Animal Nutrition News AVMA questions antibiotic ban in animals
// 02 jul 2008

Scientific data do not support a ban on the preventative use of antibiotics in food animals, according to The American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA).

 
Dr. Lyle P. Vogel, AVMA assistant executive vice president said that evidence suggests that when livestock are not given antimicrobials for prevention of disease - as has happened in Denmark since the 1990s - an increase in illnesses is likely to occur. In some instances, he added, antibiotic resistance in humans is 10 times greater in Denmark than in the US despite the Danish ban.

"Risk assessments demonstrate a very low risk to human health from the use of antimicrobials in food animals, and some models predict an increased human health burden if the use is withdrawn," Vogel testified. "Non-risk-based bans of approved uses of antimicrobials will negatively impact animal health and welfare without predictably improving public health."

Vogel told the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor & Pensions that the Food & Drug Administration's evaluations of antibiotic use in livestock are more stringent than for human antibiotics. FDA evaluates each food animal antibiotic for human, environmental and animal safety, and additionally, public and private surveillance systems monitor the use of the drugs for the emergence of antibiotic resistance.

AVMA's written testimony and information about the issue will be posted on AVMA's food safety advocacy website.


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« Reply #59 on: July 11, 2008, 07:19:52 AM »

Thursday, July 10, 2008Print This Page
Pork Producers Should Try Marketing Lighter Pigs
US - In a university report, Purdue University Extension swine specialist Allan Schinckel says that pork producers who are feeling pinched by high feed prices should contemplate marketing lighter pigs.



With corn and soybean meal prices climbing, producers can cut their losses $4 to $5 per head by selling their animals to processors at the minimum acceptable weights, Schinckel says.

"We have corn at $7 a bushel and soybean meal at $350 per ton -- a more than doubling of feed prices," he says. "Market hog prices haven't gone up to compensate for those higher prices, and producers are in a position where they are unprofitable and losing money.

"They can minimize those losses by taking the pigs to the pork processor on the lower end of the pork processor's acceptable weight range. If there's no discount for pigs above 250 pounds, you would market pigs semi-load by semi-load at just above 250 pounds."

According to Agriculture Online, processors pay the highest market price for pigs weighing 250 to 280 pounds, Schinckel said. When corn was $2.50 per bushel and soybean meal $180 per ton, producers could maximize their profits with pigs weighing at least 271 pounds, he says.

Research by Schinckel and fellow Purdue animal sciences and agricultural economics colleagues Paul Preckel, Mark Einstien, Todd Hobbs and Brian Richert found lower acceptable weight marketing is a producer's best strategy in high feed cost cycles. The findings were based on the percent lean requirements of three major pork processors: Tyson Foods, Indiana Packers Corp. and Farmland Foods, reports Agriculture Online.

Marketing lighter pigs is more labor-intensive, Schinckel says.

"A producer is going to have to sort pigs," he says. "They will go into each pen and separate the heavier animals two additional times per finishing unit. That comes out to about another six to 10 man-hours of labor per thousand-head finisher barn."

Producers who follow a lighter pig marketing strategy will make more frequent trips to the processor, Schinckel says.

The Purdue researchers also found that producers save on feed costs with pigs that maintain a higher lean growth rate and better feed conversion at heavier weights.

"Each producer needs to know the marginal feed conversion of their pigs between 230 pounds and about 280 pounds," Schinckel says. "They also need to know if their pigs are dropping in percent lean enough that the percent lean discount is changing as the pigs go to the heavier weights.

"In general, low to average percent lean pigs require more feed per pound of liveweight gain and are dropping in percent lean, and should go to the lower market weights. So pigs that stay lean to heavier weights and have a higher lean gain are a little bit less sensitive to high feed prices than pigs which are fatter and less efficient."

Eventually, market prices paid to producers are going to have to catch up with feed costs for the industry to remain viable, Schinckel says.

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